Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

Italy has been for quite a while one of the most (if not the most) pro-Russian country amongst the Western EU countries. Berlusconi used to be super chummy with Putin, Salvini followed that route. Besides that there's plenty of economic ties between both countries. It's not coming out of nowhere.

Also in my experience Italy has possibly the most bone-headed lefty peace movement in Europe. It's not that they're all tankies or anything, just very much "I would simply not have a war" as a policy position.

Worth pointing out I don't agree with the framing of those questions - part of the reason I think there needs to be robust support for Ukraine to win is because I think, if it loses, there will be more war. I saw a Bosnian commentator note (and I think he's right) if Kyiv had fallen in those early days then Dodik would already have declared independence and we'd be looking at a Balkan conflict - not to mention Moldova.

Similarly I don't necessarily want to escalate or focus on "punishing" Russia as the "justice" option. I just want to send Ukraine everything they need to win so that they're able to defend their territorial integrity and sovereignty.

[Sheilbh]

Separately couple of interesting intelligence moves in recent days - in the UK a forty something man was arrested at Gatwick airport on counter-espionage charges and breach of the Official Secrets Act. Today the Dutch announced they'd stopped a Russian spy from gaining access to the Hague - they were under an assumed Brazilian identity and had travelled to the Netherlands from Brazil and were going to start work (I think as an intern) at the Hague. But the Dutch have said they were actually employed by the GRU.

[The Larch]

Italy has been for quite a while one of the most (if not the most) pro-Russian country amongst the Western EU countries. Berlusconi used to be super chummy with Putin, Salvini followed that route. Besides that there's plenty of economic ties between both countries. It's not coming out of nowhere.

Also in my experience Italy has possibly the most bone-headed lefty peace movement in Europe. It's not that they're all tankies or anything, just very much "I would simply not have a war" as a policy position.

There are lots of "peace for peace's sake" attitudes amongst fringe left wingers all over W. Europe- What makes the Italians more noteworthy?

I saw a Bosnian commentator note (and I think he's right) if Kyiv had fallen in those early days then Dodik would already have declared independence and we'd be looking at a Balkan conflict - not to mention Moldova.

Agree on that, that particular domino theory is quite beliveable and those other possible scenarios should be watched with caution.

[Josquius]

I was chatting to a Bosnian girl this afternoon. She mentioned she's seeing so many parallels with the Ukraine war.
Everyone thought it wouldn't happen. There's too many links between Russia and Ukraine... And that's exactly the excuse for why Russia did it.

Also spoke to a Russian colleague who messed up my plans as he has been waiting months for a UK visit visa despite paying for fast track. In his words Russian passport holders are simply banned from the UK.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Today is the Macron, Scholz and Draghi trip to Kyiv which is good to see if a little delayed.

It's just a courtesy visit at this point, no? Nothing concrete will be offered to Ukraine, neither arms nor EU candidacy status...

Basically some virtue-signalling but for the rest letting Ukraine hang in the wind. Unless things change Putin will be on the spot with his claims that the West is all bluff without any will to endure behind it.

[mongers]

I think public opinion is going to shift from "let's find an exit ramp for Putin" to "let's find an exit ramp for Zelenskyy". I think there will be pressure on him to make a deal.

Quite possibly, Joseph.

We in the West will get bored of this foreign war and begin it wish it away?

[Eddie Teach]

Nah. We already got bored of it so it ceased to exist.

[celedhring]

Seeing the pictures from the 3 Sisters (and Romania) visiting Kyiv - damn, Zelensky's jacked.

I picture him doing a Rocky IV training montage while Putin is given 'roids.

[HVC]

The Romanian is so much taller.

[HVC]

You can really feel the love

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Yeh, I can imagine that Zelensky would rather strangle them a bit.

----
I've got to admit that it currently feels as if we're seeing the last gasps of the West as a coherent and meaningful entity in the world.
Agents of chaos on the left and right are running loose, politics on left and right is focused on things that don't really matter and spending money without a care about frugality, society appears to be unravelling and our collective attentionspan doesn't reach further than the next news-cycle... if even that far.

Then again: we've been there before. The big war itself is only a 100 days old (unless you're Ukrainian: in which case it's about 3000 days old) which is really short. Meaning things can still turn around.
Mentally we're at the Fall of France rather than the siege of Stalingrad.
But having al those Russian shills, tankies and other types of collaborators around doesn't make it any easier.
Let's say that my urge to shave people's hair is on the rise.

[Zoupa]

Video of them being greeted by Zelensky. Jump to 1:30 to see how he greets Macron.

Video > Picture

https://twitter.com/CiLuna27/status/1537412944509681664?s=20&t=uViIFqYrqhA6hTrEBa2efA

[HVC]

Video of them being greeted by Zelensky. Jump to 1:30 to see how he greets Macron.

Video > Picture

https://twitter.com/CiLuna27/status/1537412944509681664?s=20&t=uViIFqYrqhA6hTrEBa2efA

Another hug for you

[Berkut]

I assume any picture is just someone going frame by frame through a video to pick out the worst possible momentary transition.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Macron had better wisper in Zelenky's ear sweet words of lend-lease.
Sending so many Césars that they'd be able to recreate the entire collection of Roman emperors.
(but that's wishful thinking)