Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

Interesting report on European attitudes - I think this is Putin's plan now. Grinding forward in Ukraine and waiting for the political consequences of food shortages and energy issues/cost of living, especially this winter, to divide Western support:
https://ecfr.eu/publication/peace-versus-justice-the-coming-european-split-over-the-war-in-ukraine/

Having said that, looking at the descriptions I think I am in the "swing" camp rather than "peace" or "justice".

[Crazy_Ivan80]

those who want to end the war asap are the type of people who'd have ended ww2 between November 1941 and august 1942, when the Axis was at its largest.

[Barrister]

Rumour sourced from a Ukrainian news cite is that Putin is in a coma after a botched operation.

Probably not true but fun to think about.

[celedhring]

The Saint Petersburg Economic Forum is on, I think he's supposed to deliver a speech in it. So we'll know soon enough.

[Legbiter]

Have we seen anything about manufacturing of anything for Ukraine stepping up?

To seriously fuck the Russians up and drive them back there would have to be dedicated factories producing large amounts of platforms and munitions round the clock. I'm pessimistic that that's actually going on at anywhere near the rates the Ukrainians need to turn the war around. Aside from a select few systems the aid is piecemeal and eclectic, basically whatever is in storage right now and we can spare 10% of. Probably the single biggest military help the Ukrainians receive are Western signal intelligence and Elon Musk's Starlink satellite coverage.

[Barrister]

The Saint Petersburg Economic Forum is on, I think he's supposed to deliver a speech in it. So we'll know soon enough.

Putin's speech scheduled for Friday.

[Josquius]

Have we seen anything about manufacturing of anything for Ukraine stepping up?

To seriously fuck the Russians up and drive them back there would have to be dedicated factories producing large amounts of platforms and munitions round the clock. I'm pessimistic that that's actually going on at anywhere near the rates the Ukrainians need to turn the war around. Aside from a select few systems the aid is piecemeal and eclectic, basically whatever is in storage right now and we can spare 10% of. Probably the single biggest military help the Ukrainians receive are Western signal intelligence and Elon Musk's Starlink satellite coverage.

.

Agreed. Seems very weird how big of a deal is being made of 4 missile launchers et al.

I have to hope this is a lie - there's actually much more than 4 but it's wise not the let the Russians know how many.
But I doubt it.

[Threviel]

Yeah, I believe I wrote on day 3 or so that we need to gett all our factories up to max ASAP. They are going to need thousands of armoured vehicles, artillery pieces with millions of rounds of ammunition. Not to mention equipment for a million+ man army with all that comes with that, small arms, support weapons, boots and whatever. Logistics and support for all that as well and training for everything.

I sure hope someone else that the US army is thinking like this. If they don't get that they won't be able to dislodge the Russians.

[Sheilbh]

Today is the Macron, Scholz and Draghi trip to Kyiv which is good to see if a little delayed.

[Zanza]

Today is the Macron, Scholz and Draghi trip to Kyiv which is good to see if a little delayed.

It's just a courtesy visit at this point, no? Nothing concrete will be offered to Ukraine, neither arms nor EU candidacy status...

[Josephus]

I think public opinion is going to shift from "let's find an exit ramp for Putin" to "let's find an exit ramp for Zelenskyy". I think there will be pressure on him to make a deal.

[Sheilbh]

It's just a courtesy visit at this point, no? Nothing concrete will be offered to Ukraine, neither arms nor EU candidacy status...

I suppose there might be some announcements from Italy and France?

I think the symbolism is really important though, especially as it's looked a little bit odd that the three key European countries hadn't done a trip given everyone else who has. I also think this is the first time a trip like this has been pre-announced which is probably a striking sign of the change in risk to Kyiv.

[Josquius]

Interesting report on European attitudes - I think this is Putin's plan now. Grinding forward in Ukraine and waiting for the political consequences of food shortages and energy issues/cost of living, especially this winter, to divide Western support:
https://ecfr.eu/publication/peace-versus-justice-the-coming-european-split-over-the-war-in-ukraine/

Having said that, looking at the descriptions I think I am in the "swing" camp rather than "peace" or "justice".

Wtf is wrong with Italy.

[The Larch]

Interesting report on European attitudes - I think this is Putin's plan now. Grinding forward in Ukraine and waiting for the political consequences of food shortages and energy issues/cost of living, especially this winter, to divide Western support:
https://ecfr.eu/publication/peace-versus-justice-the-coming-european-split-over-the-war-in-ukraine/

Having said that, looking at the descriptions I think I am in the "swing" camp rather than "peace" or "justice".

Wtf is wrong with Italy.

Italy has been for quite a while one of the most (if not the most) pro-Russian country amongst the Western EU countries. Berlusconi used to be super chummy with Putin, Salvini followed that route. Besides that there's plenty of economic ties between both countries. It's not coming out of nowhere.

[celedhring]

Italy has a tradition of starting wars on the losing side and then switch sides