Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Barrister]

When talking about the concrete scenario of grain export in Odessa: Could the Russians track a grain freighter using such a mine-free channel from the Black Sea into the harbor? That would give away the Ukrainian secret and make a landing more likely again, no?

The main anti-air and anti-missile cover of the Black Fleet is no more, and with it any chance of mounting an amphibious operation.

After the Moskva went down, the Russians tried to use Serpent Island as a replacement. Seeing the kind of hell Bayraktars and a couple Su-25s rained upon them, I doubt that the even the Russians are stupid enough to try a serious operation against Odessa.

Their Kilos can still blockade the port, but I'd be really surprised if the can get troop transports to the coast without being blown to bits.

Also, as far as I know, Russian Marine units were diverted to Mariupol and are still fully engaged.

At a minimum the Russians are trying to pin down Ukrainian forces in Odessa so that they can not be used elsewhere.

But absolutely Putin would like to take Odessa.  It's an important port city and would completely cut off Ukraine from the ocean.  I agree it would be foolish for Russia to open up a new front against Odessa right now but the threat is still there.

[grumbler]

When talking about the concrete scenario of grain export in Odessa: Could the Russians track a grain freighter using such a mine-free channel from the Black Sea into the harbor? That would give away the Ukrainian secret and make a landing more likely again, no?

The most difficult operation in all of warfare is a contested amphibious landing.  Even having some knowledge of the swept channel, trying to launch such an invasion through the narrow swept channel is not something any navy has ever even attempted.  The shore batteries would quickly realize that you are using the swept channel and focus on that, plus your troops are landing in a very narrow front.

In any case, trying to directly assault a port isn't a very good plan (see: Dieppe).  Land on either side and take it from the landward side.  No swept channels there; you'd just have to send in your own minesweepers (which requires absolute air superiority).

[grumbler]

At a minimum the Russians are trying to pin down Ukrainian forces in Odessa so that they can not be used elsewhere.

That's a real benefit of having forced entry capabilities:  the enemy has to defend everywhere you could land.  In the  Gulf War the US had an amphib task force that just repeatedly threatened landings and kept a couple of Iraqi divisions pinned in place.

But absolutely Putin would like to take Odessa.  It's an important port city and would completely cut off Ukraine from the ocean.  I agree it would be foolish for Russia to open up a new front against Odessa right now but the threat is still there.

Yes, he'd like to take Odessa, but doesn't have the forces to do so from the sea.

[Jacob]

Decent twitter thread on the current situation by Jomini of the West:
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1535446565824958466

Not ideal.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

When talking about the concrete scenario of grain export in Odessa: Could the Russians track a grain freighter using such a mine-free channel from the Black Sea into the harbor? That would give away the Ukrainian secret and make a landing more likely again, no?

The main anti-air and anti-missile cover of the Black Fleet is no more, and with it any chance of mounting an amphibious operation.

After the Moskva went down, the Russians tried to use Serpent Island as a replacement. Seeing the kind of hell Bayraktars and a couple Su-25s rained upon them, I doubt that the even the Russians are stupid enough to try a serious operation against Odessa.

Their Kilos can still blockade the port, but I'd be really surprised if the can get troop transports to the coast without being blown to bits.

Also, as far as I know, Russian Marine units were diverted to Mariupol and are still fully engaged.

apparently new russian equipment is already on the island.

anyway: the west seems to have slipped far if half of it is unwilling to provide meaningful lend-lease and all of it is incapable of manufacturing vast amounts of it even without going to a full war-economy.

[Josquius]

Have we seen anything about manufacturing of anything for Ukraine stepping up?

[The Larch]

Long Twitter thread on how Russian pop culture has been harping on rewriting history and revanchism against the west for the last couple of decades:

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1535582101621420032?t=qKNL13V6DnFH3kylU0RGug&s=19

[grumbler]

Have we seen anything about manufacturing of anything for Ukraine stepping up?

Yes.  Production of the Javelin missile in the US has doubled, and will double again by the end of the year.

[grumbler]

Long Twitter thread on how Russian pop culture has been harping on rewriting history and revanchism against the west for the last couple of decades:

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1535582101621420032?t=qKNL13V6DnFH3kylU0RGug&s=19

Fascinating stuff.  It explains a lot of things that have puzzled me.

I wish they'd translate the books that had Adolf Hitler as the hero.  Such twisted stuff is bound to be hilarious (to us, anyway). 

Springtime for Hitler
and Germany
Winter, for Poland
and France.

[Josquius]

Long Twitter thread on how Russian pop culture has been harping on rewriting history and revanchism against the west for the last couple of decades:

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1535582101621420032?t=qKNL13V6DnFH3kylU0RGug&s=19

I do note theres no mention of numbers or anything there.
We have a lot of this kind of thing in the west too, eg Axis of Time, 1632,etc....
Its not exactly well known here - though it does seem to provide a steady income for its authors.
Are things different in Russia and its actually a major best selling genre?

[The Larch]

Long Twitter thread on how Russian pop culture has been harping on rewriting history and revanchism against the west for the last couple of decades:

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1535582101621420032?t=qKNL13V6DnFH3kylU0RGug&s=19

Fascinating stuff.  It explains a lot of things that have puzzled me.

I wish they'd translate the books that had Adolf Hitler as the hero.  Such twisted stuff is bound to be hilarious (to us, anyway). 

Springtime for Hitler
and Germany
Winter, for Poland
and France.

The ones about the USSR and Nazi Germany allying against the West are true head scratchers for sure.

[Jacob]

The ones about the USSR and Nazi Germany allying against the West are true head scratchers for sure.

Not really...

I mean, Nazi Germany and the USSR were allies for a while. I've read that both pre- and post- revolution (and pre- and post- Hitler gaining power), Germany were major supporters of Russia in terms of training experts and building infrastructure.

Imagining two totalitarian states allying against democracy doesn't seem that far-fetched. Stalin happily threw German communists under the bus when he allied with Germany, for example.

[Josquius]

The ones about the USSR and Nazi Germany allying against the West are true head scratchers for sure.

Not really...

I mean, Nazi Germany and the USSR were allies for a while. I've read that both pre- and post- revolution (and pre- and post- Hitler gaining power), Germany were major supporters of Russia in terms of training experts and building infrastructure.

Imagining two totalitarian states allying against democracy doesn't seem that far-fetched. Stalin happily threw German communists under the bus when he allied with Germany, for example.

Sure. But it's a side of history the Soviets were keen to see forgotten.
Given modern Russias whole anti nazi vibe it's particularly out of place.
Goes to show its not the nazi aspects of the nazis they disagree with - its just that it was aimed their way.

[celedhring]

This is quite encouraging. Even ignoring the current drop caused by technical issues, Europe is buying half the amount of Russian gas it was buying a year ago. Now, the increase in price has more than made up for that and then some, but hopefully long term prices will drop again as we consolidate flows from other sources.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Apparently the UK is exporting a lot of gas to Europe as we have substantial LNG infrastructure but very little storage capacity :

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/13/uk-gas-oil-exports-eu-amid-russia-ukraine-brexit