Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-15 + 2022 Invasion

Started by mongers, August 06, 2014, 03:12:53 PM

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Eddie Teach

But he tried to give other senators covid, he must be a patriot.  :hmm:
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

Jacob

#8716
Interesting interview on the BBC with a Russian contract soldier who's refusing to fight. It's in Russian, but I read it fine with google translate: https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-61415343 (it also ends with a set of contact info for lawyers and others to help Russian soldiers get out of the military, so there's definitely a propaganda angle here as well).

Also, the analysis of a former PRC ambassador to Ukraine was posted online (and then censored). It seems pretty no-nonsense. It's not an official statement at all, but I suspect this analysis is also current within the PRC ruling clique (even if different analyses are also available); https://gaodawei.wordpress.com/2022/05/10/fmr-prc-amb-to-ukraine-on-russias-impending-defeat-and-international-relations/

HisMajestyBOB

Quote from: Valmy on May 12, 2022, 09:18:21 PMShip's biscuits and limes. At least you got some rum.

Plus sodomy and the lash, too!
Three lovely Prada points for HoI2 help

grumbler

Quote from: Valmy on May 12, 2022, 09:18:21 PMShip's biscuits and limes. At least you got some rum.

But the rum was likely in the form of grog, which is like rum only without the rum.

The RN never passed up a chance to fuck over its sailors.
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

Razgovory

Quote from: DGuller on May 12, 2022, 10:46:16 PMShockingly, Rand Paul is holding up the aid to Ukraine.  Our intelligence has proven pretty devastating against Russian assets in Ukraine, maybe it's time to use it against Russian assets in Washington DC.
That guy really is a tool, isn't he?
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Sheilbh

#8720
Seeing lots of reports from Kharkiv by journalists now - apparently Russian forces have almost been pushed out of artillery range and look very close to the international border now.

Plus movement around Kherson. It feels like we'll be reaching a point in a month or two where Russia either has to acknowledge defeat in this "phase 2" of the war or escalate (which may be why Western leaders seem to have been talking more about ceasefires). It feels likely that we're heading back to the positions of 24 February in the next month or so, at which point the Ukrainians will presumably have to decide whether they intend there to be a phase 3 pushing back to their international borders.

Edit: Also very good after the Zelensky-Macron thing that the G7 foreign ministers have stated "we will never recognise borders Russia has attempted to change by military aggression", which is the right approach.
Let's bomb Russia!

Crazy_Ivan80

Zelensky has already said that the end state of this war is full liberation of Ukrainian lands. If they can they will and they should. No more Russian naval base in Sevastopol.

Josquius

Seems to be going quite mixed with Ukraine winning in the north and Russia in the south.

I can't see Russia allowing too much Ukranian progress in the north though. Belgorod is very near the border....

Unless they want Ukraine to attack? Apparently Russia has troubles with many of its best surviving troops refusing to enter Ukraine.
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Jacob

Quote from: Josquius on May 14, 2022, 12:09:25 PMSeems to be going quite mixed with Ukraine winning in the north and Russia in the south.

I can't see Russia allowing too much Ukranian progress in the north though. Belgorod is very near the border....

Unless they want Ukraine to attack? Apparently Russia has troubles with many of its best surviving troops refusing to enter Ukraine.

Is Russia winning in the South?

Tamas

Quote from: Jacob on May 14, 2022, 01:39:54 PM
Quote from: Josquius on May 14, 2022, 12:09:25 PMSeems to be going quite mixed with Ukraine winning in the north and Russia in the south.

I can't see Russia allowing too much Ukranian progress in the north though. Belgorod is very near the border....

Unless they want Ukraine to attack? Apparently Russia has troubles with many of its best surviving troops refusing to enter Ukraine.

Is Russia winning in the South?

Well they are not retreating, which is a marked improvement for them.

Josquius

It could be Ukraine is trading land for dead Russians. But Russia is definitely advancing in the Donbass.
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Crazy_Ivan80

Quote from: Jacob on May 14, 2022, 01:39:54 PM
Quote from: Josquius on May 14, 2022, 12:09:25 PMSeems to be going quite mixed with Ukraine winning in the north and Russia in the south.

I can't see Russia allowing too much Ukranian progress in the north though. Belgorod is very near the border....

Unless they want Ukraine to attack? Apparently Russia has troubles with many of its best surviving troops refusing to enter Ukraine.

Is Russia winning in the South?

They're gaining ground, probably at significant cost, because that's where the bulk of their army is.
This conflict is going to take a long time. The outcome isn't clear yet.
And if Russia loses (hopefully) it may still take weeks or months for that to become visible on the ground (same for the reverse of course).
Lets not forget that the Axis was still making gains in '42. Or that Assad looked about to fall at some point, or IS ready to topple a few countries...

Jacob

The analysts I follow - and who've been pretty on point so far - predict a general Russian collapse in late June to August (varies a bit by analyst). Based on Russian objectives, the progress in Donbas is judged to be entirely too anemic (slow, costly) to succeed.

Now that may just be optimism, but that's what I'm reading.

Apparently today there are also rumours of a coup underway. The sources here have less of a track record than the ones predicting the Russian collapse in the next month or two, but the buzz is still there. One example: https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-coup-underway-impossible-to-stop-ukraine-military-intel-2022-5

Richard Hakluyt

A lot of Russian patriots must be considering their options.

Legbiter

Plot twist: The coup plotters think Putin's being too much of a softie (Strelkovian muh mobilization doomers) wrt Ukraine.

I think this is Western intelligence propaganda. Useful propaganda but still.
Posted using 100% recycled electrons.