Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Eddie Teach]

But he tried to give other senators covid, he must be a patriot. 

[Jacob]

Interesting interview on the BBC with a Russian contract soldier who's refusing to fight. It's in Russian, but I read it fine with google translate: https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-61415343 (it also ends with a set of contact info for lawyers and others to help Russian soldiers get out of the military, so there's definitely a propaganda angle here as well).

Also, the analysis of a former PRC ambassador to Ukraine was posted online (and then censored). It seems pretty no-nonsense. It's not an official statement at all, but I suspect this analysis is also current within the PRC ruling clique (even if different analyses are also available); https://gaodawei.wordpress.com/2022/05/10/fmr-prc-amb-to-ukraine-on-russias-impending-defeat-and-international-relations/

[HisMajestyBOB]

Ship's biscuits and limes. At least you got some rum.

Plus sodomy and the lash, too!

[grumbler]

Ship's biscuits and limes. At least you got some rum.

But the rum was likely in the form of grog, which is like rum only without the rum.

The RN never passed up a chance to fuck over its sailors.

[Razgovory]

Shockingly, Rand Paul is holding up the aid to Ukraine.  Our intelligence has proven pretty devastating against Russian assets in Ukraine, maybe it's time to use it against Russian assets in Washington DC.

That guy really is a tool, isn't he?

[Sheilbh]

Seeing lots of reports from Kharkiv by journalists now - apparently Russian forces have almost been pushed out of artillery range and look very close to the international border now.

Plus movement around Kherson. It feels like we'll be reaching a point in a month or two where Russia either has to acknowledge defeat in this "phase 2" of the war or escalate (which may be why Western leaders seem to have been talking more about ceasefires). It feels likely that we're heading back to the positions of 24 February in the next month or so, at which point the Ukrainians will presumably have to decide whether they intend there to be a phase 3 pushing back to their international borders.

Edit: Also very good after the Zelensky-Macron thing that the G7 foreign ministers have stated "we will never recognise borders Russia has attempted to change by military aggression", which is the right approach.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Zelensky has already said that the end state of this war is full liberation of Ukrainian lands. If they can they will and they should. No more Russian naval base in Sevastopol.

[Josquius]

Seems to be going quite mixed with Ukraine winning in the north and Russia in the south.

I can't see Russia allowing too much Ukranian progress in the north though. Belgorod is very near the border....

Unless they want Ukraine to attack? Apparently Russia has troubles with many of its best surviving troops refusing to enter Ukraine.

[Jacob]

Seems to be going quite mixed with Ukraine winning in the north and Russia in the south.

I can't see Russia allowing too much Ukranian progress in the north though. Belgorod is very near the border....

Unless they want Ukraine to attack? Apparently Russia has troubles with many of its best surviving troops refusing to enter Ukraine.

Is Russia winning in the South?

[Tamas]

Seems to be going quite mixed with Ukraine winning in the north and Russia in the south.

I can't see Russia allowing too much Ukranian progress in the north though. Belgorod is very near the border....

Unless they want Ukraine to attack? Apparently Russia has troubles with many of its best surviving troops refusing to enter Ukraine.

Is Russia winning in the South?

Well they are not retreating, which is a marked improvement for them.

[Josquius]

It could be Ukraine is trading land for dead Russians. But Russia is definitely advancing in the Donbass.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Seems to be going quite mixed with Ukraine winning in the north and Russia in the south.

I can't see Russia allowing too much Ukranian progress in the north though. Belgorod is very near the border....

Unless they want Ukraine to attack? Apparently Russia has troubles with many of its best surviving troops refusing to enter Ukraine.

Is Russia winning in the South?

They're gaining ground, probably at significant cost, because that's where the bulk of their army is.
This conflict is going to take a long time. The outcome isn't clear yet.
And if Russia loses (hopefully) it may still take weeks or months for that to become visible on the ground (same for the reverse of course).
Lets not forget that the Axis was still making gains in '42. Or that Assad looked about to fall at some point, or IS ready to topple a few countries...

[Jacob]

The analysts I follow - and who've been pretty on point so far - predict a general Russian collapse in late June to August (varies a bit by analyst). Based on Russian objectives, the progress in Donbas is judged to be entirely too anemic (slow, costly) to succeed.

Now that may just be optimism, but that's what I'm reading.

Apparently today there are also rumours of a coup underway. The sources here have less of a track record than the ones predicting the Russian collapse in the next month or two, but the buzz is still there. One example: https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-coup-underway-impossible-to-stop-ukraine-military-intel-2022-5

[Richard Hakluyt]

A lot of Russian patriots must be considering their options.

[Legbiter]

Plot twist: The coup plotters think Putin's being too much of a softie (Strelkovian muh mobilization doomers) wrt Ukraine.

I think this is Western intelligence propaganda. Useful propaganda but still.