Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Indeed on both above

[Josquius]

As I gather its.

USA- Official end to the war ASAP. On what  terms are unimportant. It just needs to hold long enough to get Trump his Nobel Peace Prize.


Russia- Official stance is Ukraine hands over all of the oblasts Russia has claimed and completely neuters itself so its evil Nazis (just meaning anti-Russian) can never threaten Russia again... Said more publicly than many get, its also understood that this is intended to be just a temporary pause with Russia to grab more of Ukraine in a few years.
In practice.... Russia are hurting. If Harris had won it would have collapsed within a year or two. Big debate over whether Putin is in full on Hitler in the bunker mode about this or is aware. They might well accept a temporary pause with battle lines as they are and maybe minimal exchanges of held territory to give more defensible positions for them and worse ones for Ukraine.

Ukraine- Official stance is Russia fuck off out of the whole country and let Ukraine be Ukraine.
In practice... I do think they've recognised Crimea is as good as gone without a complete and total collapse into anarchy of Russia.  A reset to 2022 lines is their realistic extremely best-case extreme. Which they know isn't going to happen.
They were against a temporary peace as they saw how the war was hurting Russia far more than it was hurting Ukraine with its flow of foreign aid. With that in doubt....
I do think Ukraine could actually accept a pause.  Though I also believe they've got a lot of thinking going on that you can't trust Russia (duh) and if/when Russia break the peace that makes the Ukrainian case for American aid even more obvious. Also as things are going now a pause for rearming is a lot more in Ukraine/Europe's favour than Russia's.
What is off the table though is a full peace treaty and recognising Russia's gains rather than just holding the border where it is and stopping the fighting.

Also key will be sanctions. Russia knows it is screwed if they stay as they are, even without the military draining them. Ukraine and the west know this too. If we could get a cease fire whilst sanctions continue... this would be in Ukraine's favour.

[Jacob]

My understanding is that the "pause" originated as a Ukrainian or Ukrainian-European proposal.

My expectation is that Russia will reject it. The question is whether they'll reject it by manipulating their assets inside the Trump administration to pivot on a dime; whether they'll reject it by giving a ridiculous counter proposal, and then whether the Trumpists take it at face value or not; or whether they'll pretend to accept it but just ignore it in practice.

[Legbiter]

They'll have to finesse it a bit, not seem to outright reject it.