Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[PJL]

I'm starting to get the impression that Russia isn't going for limited objectives in Ukraine, but regime change, very much like in 1956 with Hungary or 1968 in Czechoslovakia. Of course, installing a puppet regime in Kiev will help them with getting their own territorial demands over the Donbasss, Crimea, and possibly a land link between the two. But they're not going to occupy it long term. Or at least they'll outsource it to loyal Ukrainian forces, with maybe a military base or two.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Not just of the 2014 impeachment, but of the 2019 election in which Zelenski won 73% of the votes.  The 2014 "coup" was Yanukovych fleeing the country to avoid participating in the unity government and then being impeached for it, and has nothing to do with the actions of the current president.  That is doubly true given that Poroshenko, the winner of the 2014 election, was the loser of the 2019 election.

We clearly disagree on the 2014 events. The fleeing was the end of the coup, not the beginning.

As for Zelensky, he won the elections thanks to the large extent to the voters from the eastern Ukraine (87.3%). This was driven, to a degree, by his promise to relaunch the Minsk process and the Normandy format — I'm quoting Deutsche Welle:

https://amp.dw.com/ru/победа-зеленского-что-нужно-знать-о-выборах-в-украине/a-48425490

In other words, he was elected in protest to Poroshenko who was taking about a hard military confrontation. Also, Zelensky was a new face in the politics (unlike Poroshenko and Timoshenko, both part of the old governments for years), a popular actor/comedian and not as openly pro-Russian as was the final candidate Boiko.

His current rating is between 16 and 24%, depending on the agency running the sensing.

As an actor, he's well loved on both sides of the border I still watch his sketches now and then, good fun.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

I'm starting to get the impression that Russia isn't going for limited objectives in Ukraine, but regime change, very much like in 1956 with Hungary or 1968 in Czechoslovakia. Of course, installing a puppet regime in Kiev will help them with getting their own territorial demands over the Donbasss, Crimea, and possibly a land link between the two. But they're not going to occupy it long term. Or at least they'll outsource it to loyal Ukrainian forces, with maybe a military base or two.

Overall, that's my impression too.

Officially, it has no territorial claims beyond Crimea, so I believe they want the rest of the country intact and neutral. The Minsk agreements assume Donbas to remain in Ukraine but with a certain level of federalisation.

Let's check back in 10 years or so... these things take time.

[mongers]

Talk or maybe rumours that Putin is prepared to try a lightning strike to capture Kiev. If true that seems an extreme move, as does he not remember the trouble Russia had capturing Grozny, a city a small proportion of the Kiev's size, it took them many weeks to expel the guerrilla fighter.

If Putin's Russia does invade, I'd favour NATO offering membership to Sweden and Finland, maybe then the Americans could deploy a battalion/brigade sized battle group to the Karelian peninsula?

[Threviel]

If Putin's Russia does invade, I'd favour NATO offering membership to Sweden and Finland, maybe then the Americans could deploy a battalion/brigade sized battle group to the Karelian peninsula?

Yes, Sweden could put its strategic reserve under Nato command. Much power. Excellent idea.

[Tamas]

Talk or maybe rumours that Putin is prepared to try a lightning strike to capture Kiev. If true that seems an extreme move, as does he not remember the trouble Russia had capturing Grozny, a city a small proportion of the Kiev's size, it took them many weeks to expel the guerrilla fighter.

If Putin's Russia does invade, I'd favour NATO offering membership to Sweden and Finland, maybe then the Americans could deploy a battalion/brigade sized battle group to the Karelian peninsula?

If the deployment to Belarus isn't a bluff/feint then surely Kiev is a target.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

I'm not close at all to the Croatian politics, but these statements by President Milanovic took me by surprise:

https://www.rtl.hr/vijesti-hr/novosti/hrvatska/4181388/uzivo-predsjednik-zoran-milanovic-pred-novinarima-nakon-posjeta-tvornici-kras/

As translated by Google:

Q: How will Croatia position itself in the event of escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine?

A: "I have no idea about that. And I am the commander-in-chief of the army. I watch statements in which NATO increases its presence, sends some reconnaissance ships. We have nothing to do with it and we will have nothing. I guarantee it. Not only will Croatia not send troops, until the escalation, he will withdraw to the last Croatian soldier", he answered, and then gave an explanation:

It has nothing to do with either Ukraine or Russia, it has to do with the dynamics of US domestic politics, so Joe Biden and his administration, which I supported only in Europe, and I have reasons why I did it publicly, taking a certain level of responsibility. I see one inconsistency and one dangerous behavior in international security, these events are taking place in the lobby of Moscow and the arrangement that will guide Russia's security interests must be found and will be found, ways to preserve Ukraine as a state or 99 percent, to economically help ... I was personally present in the work of the EV, some magnificent, some coup moments, when the regularly elected President Yanukovych, a scoundrel sitting on three chairs, overthrew in a coup d'etat. The EU and the US. "

"The occupation of Crimea followed, which some high-ranking German commanders say is a permanent situation, the commander of the German navy. You can think what others think," he said.

"We had Trump who was condescending to Putin until we wondered if they had any compromising information, some compromising information against Trump ... Putin is aggressive in the state sense, not an ethnonationalist. Then we wondered what the new administration would offer." he went on to argue that the current US administration is being run under pressure from "hawks" from the circles of both America's major political parties.

"Ukraine has no place in NATO," he said, comparing the possible position of that country, such as Norway, Austria, Finland ...:

"This is a situation without a real culprit, but with a very clear picture of who could be harmed. That is why Croatia will not participate in it."

"And let Plenković threaten Russia as much as he wants," he added.

Would be interested if anyone would have more insight about the Croatian situation. It's one of the last countries in Europe I expected such words from.

[Valmy]

I have no idea what he is saying.

[Syt]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia%E2%80%93Russia_relations#2000%E2%80%942020

According to Croatian press, the strategy of the 2019 presidential campaign of Zoran Milanović was conceived in the corporate "club" owned by JANAF, whose CEO, Dragan Kovačević, was arrested on criminal charges of corruption the following year, a move that was interpreted as the United States′ settling of scores with Russia.[52][53] In the period between 2017 and 2019, while formally out of politics, according to Croatian press reports, Milanović stayed in Moscow multiple times (Milanović was then in private business, having founded a consulting firm called EuroAlba Advisory).[54] Having become president in 2020, Milanović began to make public statements and foreign policy moves aimed, in the opinion of Croatian political analyst Davor Gjenero, at undermining the neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina′s prospects of joining the EU and NATO as well as the government of Croatia, a policy that Gjenero attributed to Milanović being beholden to Russia′s geopolitical agenda in the region.[55][56]

[Gaijin de Moscu]

I have no idea what he is saying.

If I summarise, at the risk of incurring the wrath of Berkut:

— In case of escalation between RU and UA, Croatia will withdraw every single of his soldiers from NATO;
— He sees the NATO military buildup and attributes the tensions to the internal U.S. politics rather than anything to do with RU or UA;
— He says UA has no place in NATO.

[mongers]

Why has a US ambassador to Ukraine not been appointed?

[Gaijin de Moscu]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia%E2%80%93Russia_relations#2000%E2%80%942020

According to Croatian press, the strategy of the 2019 presidential campaign of Zoran Milanović was conceived in the corporate "club" owned by JANAF, whose CEO, Dragan Kovačević, was arrested on criminal charges of corruption the following year, a move that was interpreted as the United States′ settling of scores with Russia.[52][53] In the period between 2017 and 2019, while formally out of politics, according to Croatian press reports, Milanović stayed in Moscow multiple times (Milanović was then in private business, having founded a consulting firm called EuroAlba Advisory).[54] Having become president in 2020, Milanović began to make public statements and foreign policy moves aimed, in the opinion of Croatian political analyst Davor Gjenero, at undermining the neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina′s prospects of joining the EU and NATO as well as the government of Croatia, a policy that Gjenero attributed to Milanović being beholden to Russia′s geopolitical agenda in the region.[55][56]

Thanks, interesting even if it's Wiki.

Like I said, didn't expect this.

[Zoupa]

Wiki has references, which you can consult.

In any case, Croatia isn't going anywhere Nato -wise. He's bluffing and it's a poor one.

[Valmy]

— In case of escalation between RU and UA, Croatia will withdraw every single of his soldiers from NATO;
— He sees the NATO military buildup and attributes the tensions to the internal U.S. politics rather than anything to do with RU or UA;
— He says UA has no place in NATO.

Internal US politics to what extent? What aspect? Nobody here gives a fuck about Ukraine or Russia, having anything to do with this situation at all only hurts the government. That seems completely insane.

I don't believe that for a second. This is Europe and our international partners demanding we do something. Our international interests is in the Pacific and looking out for China not this bullshit in this impoverished and rapidly shrinking corner of the world.

As far as people having a place in NATO well...what even is NATO anymore and why does one country or another have a place in it? What the fuck is he talking about?

[Zoupa]

Yeah, the internal politics one was definitely a wtf moment.

A person with even a passing knowledge of American politics would know that makes no sense; he's just spouting what he's told.