Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

We have one here too.

[Josquius]

So Israel is retiring patriot.
The timing with the US funding passing is hopeful.


https://breakingdefense.com/2024/05/israel-retires-patriot-air-defenses-as-native-air-defense-systems-step-up/

[Jacob]

Yeah, if those patriots show up in Ukraine - and soon - that'd be grand.

[viper37]

Yeah, if those patriots show up in Ukraine - and soon - that'd be grand.

Are they still useful against drones and Russia's hypersonic missiles or does Ukraine need something more advanced?  There has to be a reason why Israel needs something more sophisticated too, I suppose.

[viper37]

The Russian push seems to have begun.

Russia is [color=var(--accent-foreground-rest)]advancing along multiple parts of the eastern frontline in [color=var(--accent-foreground-rest)]Ukraine[/color] but local defenders are so far holding against the [color=var(--accent-foreground-rest)]Kremlin[/color]'s bigger and better-equipped forces, Ukrainian military officials say.[/font][/size][/color]

As a [color=var(--accent-foreground-rest)]recently-passed $61 billion (£49bn) US weapons package arrives in stages in Ukraine following six months of delay, Russian forces are looking to capitalise on a current manpower and artillery advantage to take further territory before the foreign aid diminishes their edge. It comes after [color=var(--accent-foreground-rest)]Ukrainian military chief Oleksandr Srysky[/color] admitted over the weekend that "the situation on the frontline has worsened".[/font][/size][/color]

Nazar Voloshyn, a spokesperson for Ukrainian strategic command in the east of the country, said on Thursday that Russian forces have amassed tens of thousands of troops in recent weeks in the eastern region of Donetsk, as part of a bid to push in twp areas, including [color=var(--accent-foreground-rest)]the city of Chasiv Yar and the town of Ocheretyne.[/font][/size][/color]

Mr Voloshyn said on national television: "The enemy is trying to seize the strategic initiative and breach our defence.
"The enemy is actively attacking along the entire front line, and in several directions they have achieved certain tactical advances. The situation is changing dynamically."

Ukraine's difficulties have been deepening for months as the military waited for vital new military aid from the US.

Russian forces [color=var(--accent-foreground-rest)]took the city of Avdiivka in Donetsk in mid-February after a decade of fighting in that area. Since then, they have taken 11 towns to the north and northwest of the city, according to Ukrainian war tracker DeepState.[/font][/size][/color]

Ukrainian soldiers and analysts warned then that the advances were probable given poor primary defensive fortifications; they warn now that similar issues could lead to further Russian gains nearby, though they say more is being done to remedy the problem.
In Chasiv Yar, a small city with a prewar population of 12,000, roughly 50 miles north of Avdiivka, Russian forces are dropping more than 30 powerful glide bombs a day, according to a spokesperson for the 26th Artillery Brigade deployed in the city. They have also amassed more than 25,000 soldiers for an attack on the city, which sits on high ground and is a natural launching point for further attacks in Donetsk.
Both sides are currently battling for control over two villages downhill of the city's flanks, with Russian troops so far unable to enter Chasiv Yar.
But while they took nearly a year to advance less than four miles from nearby Bakhmut to the edge of Chasiv Yar, they pushed nearly five miles in the last fortnight to capture the village of Ocheretyne nearby.

Tatarigami, a Ukrainian war tracker with close ties to the military, warns that Russian forces may now look to launch a "multi-echelon double-pincer move" from Chasiv Yar in the north of Donetsk and Ocheretyne further south to encircle the Ukrainian troops fighting in that bulge in the frontline.

[...]

Link

[Josquius]

I wonder what happened with the F16s. There's been rumours for months that they're finally on the cusp of flying but.... no signs lately.
A while ago I recall reading Russia had held off on missile strikes for a while as it was stockpiling to hit F16 bases which it no longer seems to be doing.
Very curious.

Yeah, if those patriots show up in Ukraine - and soon - that'd be grand.

Are they still useful against drones and Russia's hypersonic missiles or does Ukraine need something more advanced?  There has to be a reason why Israel needs something more sophisticated too, I suppose.

From what I gather with Israel the main reason for the switch is Iron Dome being domestically made.
Ukraine has really highlighted Patriot is missile hungry and the supply just isn't there on the import market to keep going for long.

[Tamas]

The Russian push seems to have begun.

Hopefully not, there don't seem to be much (or any) buzz about it on Twitter at all.

[Jacob]

My understanding is that a push is expected after mud season ends, which is coming up.

[Barrister]

Yeah, if those patriots show up in Ukraine - and soon - that'd be grand.

Are they still useful against drones and Russia's hypersonic missiles or does Ukraine need something more advanced?  There has to be a reason why Israel needs something more sophisticated too, I suppose.

So as I understand it (and dammit Jim!  I'm a lawyer, not a soldier) Patriot has proven to be extremely effective against even Russia's hypersonic missiles.  It is however a fairly expensive system, with each patriot missile running in the millions of dollars.

As we are now seeing in both Ukraine, and Israel, is the use of mass numbers of UAVs or drones with are quite inexpensive to produce, and also in Gaza the use of cheap and dumb rockets.  Iron Dome is (I think) more cost effective as a result, plus (as Josquis points out) it's a more local technology (although developed with US assistance) which means fewer restrictions on its use.

The timing definitely does make one think these Patriots might be showing up in Ukraine sooner or later, but just Israel doesn't want to publicize that fact because for some reason it still values its relations with Russia.

[viper37]

So as I understand it (and dammit Jim!  I'm a lawyer, not a soldier) Patriot has proven to be extremely effective against even Russia's hypersonic missiles.  It is however a fairly expensive system, with each patriot missile running in the millions of dollars.

As we are now seeing in both Ukraine, and Israel, is the use of mass numbers of UAVs or drones with are quite inexpensive to produce, and also in Gaza the use of cheap and dumb rockets.  Iron Dome is (I think) more cost effective as a result, plus (as Josquis points out) it's a more local technology (although developed with US assistance) which means fewer restrictions on its use.

The timing definitely does make one think these Patriots might be showing up in Ukraine sooner or later, but just Israel doesn't want to publicize that fact because for some reason it still values its relations with Russia.

Ok, if they're good, they're good.

I'm a little worried about the ammo required though, as Jos is pointing out.

[Josquius]

It makes sense not to publicise extra patriots in Ukraine I'd think.
If Russia knows there's only 4 systems and all their attacks on 4 places get shot down then they'll think that's where the systems are so the way is clear to attack somewhere else.
Best they don't know how many systems there are.

My understanding is that a push is expected after mud season ends, which is coming up.

Isn't the push already happening? The Russians are keen to do all they can before the US aid arrives on the front line.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

those chech shells should also be arriving about now iirc.

[Syt]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq5npwdv3wzo

Russia to hold nuclear drills following 'threats' from West

Russia has started preparations for missile drills near Ukraine simulating the use of tactical nuclear weapons in response to "threats" by Western officials.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said recent statements by French President Emmanuel Macron and the British Foreign Secretary David Cameron constituted a "completely new round of escalation of tension".

Last week, Mr Macron refused to rule out potentially deploying French troops, should Kyiv request them, while Lord Cameron said that Ukraine had the right to use British weapons for strikes within Russia.

On Monday, Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Lord Cameron's "hostile outburst" contradicted previous British assurances that the long-range missiles sent to Ukraine would not be used on Russian territory and meant that the UK was a "party to the conflict".

The ministry added that the response to Ukrainian strikes using British weapons on Russia could involve targeting any British military facilities and equipment on the territory of Ukraine and beyond.

It also said that Mr Macron's statement on possible deployment of French troops to Ukraine could be considered as "readiness for direct confrontation with Russia".

Both the British and the French ambassadors in Moscow were summoned on Monday.

The tactical nuclear weapons drills announced on Monday were ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to TASS news agency.

They were expected to take place "in the near future" and would involve missile formations as well as air and naval forces.

Tactical nuclear weapons are small nuclear warheads and delivery systems intended for use on the battlefield, or for a limited strike.

They are designed to destroy enemy targets in a specific area without causing widespread radioactive fallout.

Strategic nuclear weapons, on the other hand, are large and designed to be fired at a long range - for example, between continents. Russia holds regular drills with strategic nuclear weapons.

In April, Belarus's long-time leader Alexander Lukashenko said "several dozen" tactical nuclear weapons were stationed in his country.

A Ukrainian military intelligence spokesman dismissed the announcement that drills would take place, calling it "nuclear blackmail".

But Nato spokesperson Farah Dakhlallah said it was "dangerous and irresponsible" and stated that Nato remained "vigilant".

Following a meeting in Paris with Mr Macron and Chinese President Xi Jinping, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that she hoped President Xi would help de-escalate Russia's "irresponsible" nuclear threats.

Russia's sabre-rattling comes on the eve of President Vladimir Putin's inauguration for a fifth presidential term.

Ukraine's foreign ministry has said it will no longer regard Vladimir Putin as a legitimate president after his inauguration and has urged other countries and international organisations to follow suit.

However, a French diplomatic source quoted by Reuters said the French ambassador would attend the ceremony.

Germany and several other European countries have ruled out sending their envoys.

[Tonitrus]