Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

I don't find it funny as this kind of disconnect with reality you're showing is sadly all too common and the far right pushing it as part of their path to power is sadly as old as the hills.

I can say, and will say, the eact same words but for you and the extreme left.

I do think Jacob's question of what on earth you mean by  the far left and what establishment they control is valid here.

As I just can't see where the far left these days even pass the bar for being particularly influential never mind controlling institutions (a word which by its very meaning carries right wing vibes).

[Josquius]

So the US might finally be pulling it's head out of its arse.
Apparently a briefing of republican leaders on how Ukraine was going to be crushed by the end of the year without aid played a key role.

I wonder though. Assuming everything gets passed through the house and senate right this instant... When will Ukraine actually get anything?
I hope they have the goods ready to go in Poland.

[Zoupa]

The minute it goes through the planes will be in the air. The DoD has been chomping at the bit for 8 months now and all the supply logistics have been pre-planned with the Ukrainians.

[Razgovory]

God, I hope so.  This shit actually matters, people are dying.  Congress mostly wants to talk "woke dishwashers" and other pointless bullshit.

[Josquius]

Talk that Russia sees a window of opportunity closing and is really beginning to mass for an attack from the north.
Russian propeganda has been prepping the country for a while for destroying Kharkiv.

[Zoupa]

There are no indicators for a new push from the north. All they can do is what the russians are famous for, bombing the city randomly to kill civilians. Kahrkiv won't fall.

[Josquius]

There are no indicators for a new push from the north. All they can do is what the russians are famous for, bombing the city randomly to kill civilians. Kahrkiv won't fall.

There are indicators. Ukrainian intelligence has identified the risk.
The only question is whether Russia genuinely plans this attack or whether they just want Ukraine to redirect resources away from the east.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russia-edges-offensive-kharkiv-residents-flee-refuse-leave-109452912

[grumbler]

There are no indicators for a new push from the north. All they can do is what the russians are famous for, bombing the city randomly to kill civilians. Kahrkiv won't fall.

There are indicators. Ukrainian intelligence has identified the risk.
The only question is whether Russia genuinely plans this attack or whether they just want Ukraine to redirect resources away from the east.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russia-edges-offensive-kharkiv-residents-flee-refuse-leave-109452912

From your own source:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said it is no secret that Russia wants to take the region, but Ukraine's military intelligence calls rumors of an upcoming offensive a "psychological operation" to stir panic.

[Josquius]

There are no indicators for a new push from the north. All they can do is what the russians are famous for, bombing the city randomly to kill civilians. Kahrkiv won't fall.

There are indicators. Ukrainian intelligence has identified the risk.
The only question is whether Russia genuinely plans this attack or whether they just want Ukraine to redirect resources away from the east.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russia-edges-offensive-kharkiv-residents-flee-refuse-leave-109452912

From your own source:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said it is no secret that Russia wants to take the region, but Ukraine's military intelligence calls rumors of an upcoming offensive a "psychological operation" to stir panic.

Nice snipping of the following sentence.

Analysts argue a larger offensive can't be ruled out, pointing to the intensity of recent assaults

Remember Ukrainian intelligence was publically dismissing the imminent Russian Invasion back before it happened. They don't want to spread panic.

[grumbler]

There are no indicators for a new push from the north. All they can do is what the russians are famous for, bombing the city randomly to kill civilians. Kahrkiv won't fall.

There are indicators. Ukrainian intelligence has identified the risk.
The only question is whether Russia genuinely plans this attack or whether they just want Ukraine to redirect resources away from the east.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russia-edges-offensive-kharkiv-residents-flee-refuse-leave-109452912

From your own source:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said it is no secret that Russia wants to take the region, but Ukraine's military intelligence calls rumors of an upcoming offensive a "psychological operation" to stir panic.

Nice snipping of the following sentence.

Analysts argue a larger offensive can't be ruled out, pointing to the intensity of recent assaults

Remember Ukrainian intelligence was publically dismissing the imminent Russian Invasion back before it happened. They don't want to spread panic.

So you are arguing that "there are indicators. Ukrainian intelligence has identified the risk" because "analysts argue a larger offensive can't be ruled out?"  That Ukrainian intelligence "has identified the risk" when it "calls rumors of an upcoming offensive a "psychological operation" to stir panic?"

That's an impressive skill, reading everything to mean the opposite of what it says.  You must be at least a Level 5 Contrarian and gotten a great die roll.

[Josquius]

There are no indicators for a new push from the north. All they can do is what the russians are famous for, bombing the city randomly to kill civilians. Kahrkiv won't fall.

There are indicators. Ukrainian intelligence has identified the risk.
The only question is whether Russia genuinely plans this attack or whether they just want Ukraine to redirect resources away from the east.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russia-edges-offensive-kharkiv-residents-flee-refuse-leave-109452912

From your own source:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said it is no secret that Russia wants to take the region, but Ukraine's military intelligence calls rumors of an upcoming offensive a "psychological operation" to stir panic.

Nice snipping of the following sentence.

Analysts argue a larger offensive can't be ruled out, pointing to the intensity of recent assaults

Remember Ukrainian intelligence was publically dismissing the imminent Russian Invasion back before it happened. They don't want to spread panic.

So you are arguing that "there are indicators. Ukrainian intelligence has identified the risk" because "analysts argue a larger offensive can't be ruled out?"  That Ukrainian intelligence "has identified the risk" when it "calls rumors of an upcoming offensive a "psychological operation" to stir panic?"

That's an impressive skill, reading everything to mean the opposite of what it says.  You must be at least a Level 5 Contrarian and gotten a great die roll.

I'm saying it's a possibility because it's obviously a possibility.
That Ukrainian intelligence spokespeople have a track record of publically saying the opposite of what the signs suggest to avoid sowing panic serves to prove taking their public statements completely at face value as the absolute truth is pretty silly.
Those who know more about the situation than you or I say that the possibility is there and cannot be ruled out. So I shall believe them.

[celedhring]

The kind of mass Russia would need to assault Kharkiv is something that would be hard to hide. We'd be hearing more if it was about to happen.

[grumbler]

I'm saying it's a possibility because it's obviously a possibility.
That Ukrainian intelligence spokespeople have a track record of publically saying the opposite of what the signs suggest to avoid sowing panic serves to prove taking their public statements completely at face value as the absolute truth is pretty silly.
Those who know more about the situation than you or I say that the possibility is there and cannot be ruled out. So I shall believe them.

Lots of things are possible.  It's possible that Putin is about to surrender.  It's possible that an undetected meteor is about wipe out all life on earth.  "X is possible" is a meaningless truism.   "X cannot be ruled out" is nearly as meaningless and nearly as much a truism. 

Earlier, you argued that "there are indicators."  There are no indicators.  Earlier, you argued that "Ukrainian intelligence has identified the risk" when they have not, and now you argue, in fact, that we cannot believe what Ukrainian intelligence says (in which case why even bring up "Ukrainian intelligence has identified the risk?").

You haven't lost much credibility with this absurd contrarianism, for God knows you had but little to lose, but you have lost whatever you still had.

[Josquius]

I'm saying it's a possibility because it's obviously a possibility.
That Ukrainian intelligence spokespeople have a track record of publically saying the opposite of what the signs suggest to avoid sowing panic serves to prove taking their public statements completely at face value as the absolute truth is pretty silly.
Those who know more about the situation than you or I say that the possibility is there and cannot be ruled out. So I shall believe them.

Lots of things are possible.  It's possible that Putin is about to surrender.  It's possible that an undetected meteor is about wipe out all life on earth.  "X is possible" is a meaningless truism.   "X cannot be ruled out" is nearly as meaningless and nearly as much a truism. 

Earlier, you argued that "there are indicators."  There are no indicators.  Earlier, you argued that "Ukrainian intelligence has identified the risk" when they have not, and now you argue, in fact, that we cannot believe what Ukrainian intelligence says (in which case why even bring up "Ukrainian intelligence has identified the risk?").

You haven't lost much credibility with this absurd contrarianism, for God knows you had but little to lose, but you have lost whatever you still had.

Rest assured my feelings are exactly the same about you.
Shove your debate club up your arse. Nobody gives a shit.

Russia is stepping up its attacks from the north and Ukraine has hit nascant supply dumps in the area.
There absolutely are early indicators of an attack from that direction.
The indicators of an actual attack are of course well known and can be copied when everything is intended as a pure distraction.
But even if they're certain this is what is happening Ukraine cannot just ignore it.
I wouldn't see a full scale attempt to take Kharkiv as likely. But things are certainly becoming hotter in the area which will require extra troops from both sides - something only one can afford.

[Tamas]

Analysis of the 2022 negotiations: Ukraine didn't agree to a cease fire because of the Western nations' scepticism about Russia's intentions and their commitment to support Ukraine.

God damn Westerners if they only believed Russian promises and refused to help Ukraine, this war could have ended two years ago!

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/apr/22/boris-johnson-ukraine-2022-peace-talks-russia