Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

One area where ukraine is still low on ammo is anti air.
Apparently this is having interesting knock on effects with Moldova.
Russia is pummelling the Ukrainian electricity network, threatening a few more hydro electric dams with collapse.
One of these is just up river from Moldova and will cause a huge amount of damage there (presumably a lot in transnistria) if it goes.

[Jacob]

Saw a thing that says Russia has basically reconstituted their army, even after the losses they've sustained.

Seems like there will be a major Russian push in the summer. I hope the Ukrainians have enough to resist effectively....

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Saw a thing that says Russia has basically reconstituted their army, even after the losses they've sustained.

Seems like there will be a major Russian push in the summer. I hope the Ukrainians have enough to resist effectively....

Yeah. And all the while without counting on the west cause we've kinda proved that as allies we're not worth much long term

[Josquius]

Faceless telegram, take with pinch of salt, etc... But certainly lines up with my expectations. Things are in no way normal in Russia it is clear.

RUSSIA'S INTERNAL CRISIS

A medium sized dam collapses, not from anything other than neglect. There is no money to maintain such structures.
The level of water is horrendous - Orsk and Orenburg are flooded. Some 250km of land as much as 5km or more has been flooded. It's the worst humanitarian disaster inside Russia since Chernobyl in 1986.
On the border with Belarus another bridge collapsed - it's been needing repair for over a decade but has been ignored. Such tales of woe in Russia emerge almost every other day. There is no money to pay for basic maintenance- the war against Ukraine is sucking the country dry.
The attacks on refineries by Ukraine have started to pay dividends. Russia has been forced to buy a staggering 100,000 tons of refined petroleum and diesel from Kazakhstan because its own refineries have no capacity to sustain domestic demand. Prices are starting to rise.
Russia has been one of those countries that produces so much oil it has never had to think about a strategic reserve of fuel or oil.
America has the SPR - millions of barrels stored in old wells around Texas and elsewhere that acts as an emergency reserve in case of war or crisis. It was mostly established during the days after the oil embargo's of the 1960-70's.
Even though the US is now a net exporter of oil the strategic reserves are a vital part of the national security strategy of the US. They often get used to balance prices if they rise too high.
Russia has no such thing. It pumps it out of the ground, exports it as crude or refines it as finished products for domestic use and export. There's so much in the ground nobody ever thought to be bothered about saving any. In practice if it was needed you simply drilled for it and produced it.
It never crossed anyone's mind that the refineries would be so badly damaged that they would in effect cease to function - and with it much of Russian refining capacity would be gone. One more of those unexpected things that happens in war nobody planned for. Russian petroleum is basically a just in time product - it's produced as fast as it's needed and arrives just in time. There is no back up. Ukraine truly found a weak spot in Russia's oil industry.  And the worst part is it's not easy to fix any of these systems - even with Iranian help.
And even worse news - the revenue from Russian oil and gas is continuing to fall.
The first quarter of this year shows a 41% reduction in revenue - more than 50% if priced in dollars.
Even more annoying for the Russians is that the US is focused on making sure that no matter the price of oil, Russia gets no more than $60pb under the sanctions regime.
The rest of Russia's economic outlook is deceptive. Charts show what appears to be sharp increases in domestic non-oil & gas revenue, making up 66% of the total (the reverse of the position in 2021). Bit there are two realities to that. If oil income falls then domestic revenue automatically looks better on a chart as the percentage grows.
The revenue being generated internally is higher, but so is inflation, and as we discussed before, the 'printing' of money to supply cash to pay the governments debts has its own dangerous alchemy. And that is still playing out in high hidden and official inflation and interest rates, as well as chronic currency devaluations.
What is happening is that war is inflating state paid for production of weapons. The state pays - to make, to operate and maintain what it buys. What it is producing is war - it's not making anything that brings any return. It's a total cost, there is no longevity in this type of economy.
Once this war ends, Russia faces a catastrophic industrial collapse as the state stops pouring billions into weapons. Russia is spending almost 35% of its GDP on the war and it's still not winning.
Russia is not making a profit. Its 2021 revenue was a profit of nearly 10 trillion roubles.  By the time of the end of 2023 the country is in the negative - almost 3.5 trillion roubles in losses. CONTINUES...
CONTINUES ...
Russia is selling less oil, far less gas, exports little else and has become deeply dependent on China for more than should be considered healthy.
Its oil industry is in trouble, its economy is driven only by military requirements and its losses financially show it cannot afford the war - despite the billions being spent. 
Russia is in a bubble. Eventually bubbles burst and Russia will have to face that day when it happens - and when it does it's going to be a national disaster. Short term gain for long term pain. War is expensive. Surviving it is even more so.

[Sheilbh]

I did see a Reuters report that Russia has requested increased imports from Kazakhstan because of the refineries - so that bit seems at least a little confirmed.

[Tamas]

That Russian youtuber I follow has been beating the drums for a while that the Russian state is rotting away due to lack of money and the exodus of skilled workers. Do not buy Russian "sanctions don't work" propaganda.

[The Minsky Moment]

There is a great deal of ruin in a nation.

[viper37]

Saw a thing that says Russia has basically reconstituted their army, even after the losses they've sustained.

Seems like there will be a major Russian push in the summer. I hope the Ukrainians have enough to resist effectively....

Russia is going to outgun Ukrain 10:1 im the coming weeks unless the US can find a way to resupply them:
link


I know Canada has promised to step up and fill the void, but don't count on it.  Canada has promised to deliver equipement it does not have and has no plans in motion to acquire.  Our entire military supply lines are in shambles and the latest announcement are just for show.  There is no staff, no money, no ammo, no equipment.

If we go to war, it's gonna be awful at first.

[Josquius]

This guy is usually pretty good with his analysis and he's skeptical on Russia's chances.

What I keep seeing is people saying Russia is primed to invade Ukraine from the north again- cooler heads say they don't have the numbers. But it is curious this part of the country is being left so alone apart from Ukraine's occasional raids and Russia starting up strikes again.

And where are those F16s? They should be there by now surely.

[jimmy olsen]

https://vxtwitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1778350348840689711
Russian attack destroys thermal power plant in Kyiv Oblast.

A Russian attack overnight on April 11 destroyed the Trypillia Thermal Power Plant in the city of Ukrainka in Kyiv Oblast, Andrii Hota, the chair of Ukraine's state energy company Centerenergo's supervisory board, told Interfax-Ukraine.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Saw a thing that says Russia has basically reconstituted their army, even after the losses they've sustained.

Seems like there will be a major Russian push in the summer. I hope the Ukrainians have enough to resist effectively....

Russia is going to outgun Ukrain 10:1 im the coming weeks unless the US can find a way to resupply them:
link


I know Canada has promised to step up and fill the void, but don't count on it.  Canada has promised to deliver equipement it does not have and has no plans in motion to acquire.  Our entire military supply lines are in shambles and the latest announcement are just for show.  There is no staff, no money, no ammo, no equipment.

If we go to war, it's gonna be awful at first.

Chances are the collective west folds like a house of cards the second a Russian soldier parts in our general direction... the propaganda is real bad, and lots of idiots going with it

[Threviel]

The second any kind of war breaks out the Russian army will be obliterated by the complete and total military superiority of the west, and that's before the US gets involved. We are totally superior in every metric of conventional war and we have highly motivated and competent militaries defending us.

Canada might fold, but I assume Canada won't have time before there's a victory parade in the ruins of Moscow.

[Josquius]

The second any kind of war breaks out the Russian army will be obliterated by the complete and total military superiority of the west,

Along with the rest of the northern hemisphere.
I do think the US is needed in any war with Russia to make things so overwhelming that saner heads in the Kremlin manage to stop the missiles launching.

[Threviel]

Yeah, when nukes are involved the matter changes. I should have said conventional war.

[crazy canuck]

The second any kind of war breaks out the Russian army will be obliterated by the complete and total military superiority of the west, and that's before the US gets involved. We are totally superior in every metric of conventional war and we have highly motivated and competent militaries defending us.

Canada might fold, but I assume Canada won't have time before there's a victory parade in the ruins of Moscow.

Canada has already deployed its force to the Baltic. If there is war that force will be directly engaged in it.

If it is a conventional war, the Russians will be destroyed in short order.

That is why there will not be a conventional war between Russia and NATO.