Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Grey Fox]

Is it?

The inability by both sides to establish air supremacy is what leads to this kinky dinky methods.

[Tamas]

Is it?

The inability by both sides to establish air supremacy is what leads to this kinky dinky methods.

My biggest (pleasant) surprise at the start of the war was just how much the Russian airforce sucked. I was expecting a US-style coordinated push for air superiority and overwhelming of Ukrainian communications (I think the Russians had the numbers for it) but it seems they just don't have the organisational ability to pull something like that off.

[Sheilbh]

I've mentioned before but I also think the cheap, easily available drones have had a huge impact. Makes it very difficult to spring a surprise. A few things also that also make it feel like we're in a time and with technology that (absent an overwhelming advantage) favours defenders - until the next shift/adaptation to that.

[celedhring]

Is it?

The inability by both sides to establish air supremacy is what leads to this kinky dinky methods.

My biggest (pleasant) surprise at the start of the war was just how much the Russian airforce sucked. I was expecting a US-style coordinated push for air superiority and overwhelming of Ukrainian communications (I think the Russians had the numbers for it) but it seems they just don't have the organisational ability to pull something like that off.

I think we got suckered by the yanks all these years. Modern warfare has become so complex than it's fucking hard to pull off.

As Sheilbh points out, I think we are at the moment in time when technology favors defence - you need a lot of resources and do a lot of very complex things very well to break down a near-peer prepared defender and sustain the offensive.

[Josquius]

It seems things are looking up for Ukraine. Thanks to the Czechs their ammo supplies are stable for some time to come so they're able to properly use their reserves and make the Russians bleed.

So amazing and depressing that they've been hurt so badly lately due to internal politics of supposed supporters

[Crazy_Ivan80]

It seems things are looking up for Ukraine. Thanks to the Czechs their ammo supplies are stable for some time to come so they're able to properly use their reserves and make the Russians bleed.

So amazing and depressing that they've been hurt so badly lately due to internal politics of supposed supporters

But in the mean time the spd is apparently discussing a freeze of the conflict. They still love putin too much over there.
Maybe they should start to call him fuhrer or so, to make sure the politicians stay focused on victory rather than just maintaining a faux status quo

[Sheilbh]

It seems things are looking up for Ukraine. Thanks to the Czechs their ammo supplies are stable for some time to come so they're able to properly use their reserves and make the Russians bleed.

So amazing and depressing that they've been hurt so badly lately due to internal politics of supposed supporters

Excluding the US, the thing that drives me mad is that it's not even really down to internal politics.

In most of Ukraine's strongest supporters there is broad political consensus and overwhelming public support. As far as I can see it's a reluctance to get locked into long enough contracts to expand manufacturing capacity (with the exceptions of Finland and Poland).

I almost wonder if it's maybe an austerity/budget rules issue that a multi-year commitment has an impact on your long term fiscal projections (which are not real). It might be easier for most of Europe to do at an EU level, but despite the EU's €77 billion support to Ukraine, only €500 million has been allocated to new artillery shells.

In Europe, I don't think it's political problems, I think it's policy and delivery failure. The politics are easy - basically everyone.

[Tamas]

Is it?

The inability by both sides to establish air supremacy is what leads to this kinky dinky methods.

My biggest (pleasant) surprise at the start of the war was just how much the Russian airforce sucked. I was expecting a US-style coordinated push for air superiority and overwhelming of Ukrainian communications (I think the Russians had the numbers for it) but it seems they just don't have the organisational ability to pull something like that off.

I think we got suckered by the yanks all these years. Modern warfare has become so complex than it's fucking hard to pull off.

As Sheilbh points out, I think we are at the moment in time when technology favors defence - you need a lot of resources and do a lot of very complex things very well to break down a near-peer prepared defender and sustain the offensive.

Probably, except we don't know what happens when a side's competent airforce achieves air supremacy. Sure you can see the enemy massing via your drones but if the enemy meanwhile obliterates your logistics and carpet-bombs your trenches, the drones are still better than not having them, but will they be as much as decisive thing? I am not sure.

[Josquius]

It seems things are looking up for Ukraine. Thanks to the Czechs their ammo supplies are stable for some time to come so they're able to properly use their reserves and make the Russians bleed.

So amazing and depressing that they've been hurt so badly lately due to internal politics of supposed supporters

Excluding the US, the thing that drives me mad is that it's not even really down to internal politics.

In most of Ukraine's strongest supporters there is broad political consensus and overwhelming public support. As far as I can see it's a reluctance to get locked into long enough contracts to expand manufacturing capacity (with the exceptions of Finland and Poland).

I almost wonder if it's maybe an austerity/budget rules issue that a multi-year commitment has an impact on your long term fiscal projections (which are not real). It might be easier for most of Europe to do at an EU level, but despite the EU's €77 billion support to Ukraine, only €500 million has been allocated to new artillery shells.

In Europe, I don't think it's political problems, I think it's policy and delivery failure. The politics are easy - basically everyone.

I  would still say this is politics.
Endless negotiations with businesses over who will pay for what is needed .
A big reluctance to rock the boat and shift back towards state owned industries.

But yes. Definitely different politics to the game playing of the gop.

I didn't know those numbers. Pretty damning read straight
But  Surely a lot of that is write offs of "it cost us 8 million for this tank in 1992 so that counts as 8 million aid to Ukraine"?

[Admiral Yi]

I almost wonder if it's maybe an austerity/budget rules issue that a multi-year commitment has an impact on your long term fiscal projections (which are not real). It might be easier for most of Europe to do at an EU level, but despite the EU's €77 billion support to Ukraine, only €500 million has been allocated to new artillery shells.

What should they be spending less on?

[Sheilbh]

I didn't know those numbers. Pretty damning read straight
But  Surely a lot of that is write offs of "it cost us 8 million for this tank in 1992 so that counts as 8 million aid to Ukraine"?

Sorry I didn't really mean it to be damning. I think the easiest way would be for European countries to do it an EU level with common arms procurement for Ukraine and then I think you could have contracts big enough and, possibly, long enough to change the manufacturing reality. It could also rely on common debt and not be on any nation's balance sheet (given they're also primarily dealing with the economic impact of still very high energy costs etc).

So far the EU's aid to Ukraine has been overwhelmingly financial, so only €5-6 billion on arms (of which 10% is on shells). My thought is that the EU has the financial clout to give a huge amount of aid and it may be that it would actually be better spent through paying for physical things to supply to Ukraine. Basically covid vaccine and PPE procurement but for material for Ukraine (and on a bigger scale).

There has been some common procurement €1-2 billion - I don't know why there's not been more as it seems like a real, obvious example where the EU can be a real multiplier of what member states can do. I think there has been some argument between some in the Commission/member states who think that the key should be to buy Ukraine arms from anywhere and others who say it should only come from European manufacturers who are willing to manufacture in Europe - and you can see the argument, helping Ukraine is good but even better if it can also be used to increase European defence (plus a little bit of military Keynesianism to help the economy). So I wonder if, ultimately, it is old school EU politics of a fight between the sort of liberals v protectionists, plus possibly a bit of making sure everyone's defence industry gets enough orders?

What should they be spending less on?

I don't know what you mean.

[Tonitrus]

Ukraine jerryriged a small plane into a drone, filled it with tnt, and flew it into a Russian drone factory. Modern warfare is weird.

I saw that video.  I would have named the drone/plane "Mathias Rust's Revenge".

[Admiral Yi]

I don't know what you mean.

It was nonsense.  Disregard.

[Josquius]

I didn't know those numbers. Pretty damning read straight
But  Surely a lot of that is write offs of "it cost us 8 million for this tank in 1992 so that counts as 8 million aid to Ukraine"?

Sorry I didn't really mean it to be damning. I think the easiest way would be for European countries to do it an EU level with common arms procurement for Ukraine and then I think you could have contracts big enough and, possibly, long enough to change the manufacturing reality. It could also rely on common debt and not be on any nation's balance sheet (given they're also primarily dealing with the economic impact of still very high energy costs etc).

So far the EU's aid to Ukraine has been overwhelmingly financial, so only €5-6 billion on arms (of which 10% is on shells). My thought is that the EU has the financial clout to give a huge amount of aid and it may be that it would actually be better spent through paying for physical things to supply to Ukraine. Basically covid vaccine and PPE procurement but for material for Ukraine (and on a bigger scale).

There has been some common procurement €1-2 billion - I don't know why there's not been more as it seems like a real, obvious example where the EU can be a real multiplier of what member states can do. I think there has been some argument between some in the Commission/member states who think that the key should be to buy Ukraine arms from anywhere and others who say it should only come from European manufacturers who are willing to manufacture in Europe - and you can see the argument, helping Ukraine is good but even better if it can also be used to increase European defence (plus a little bit of military Keynesianism to help the economy). So I wonder if, ultimately, it is old school EU politics of a fight between the sort of liberals v protectionists, plus possibly a bit of making sure everyone's defence industry gets enough orders?

I think this last one is key.
Makes perfect logical sense to point to well understood economies of scale and how Europe should be pooling its buying into big standard orders... But then you have several countries all insisting their current norm is the standard to follow.
IIRC the eurofighter and France deciding it wanted nothing to do with it was a key example of this. Seems even worse with the successor with Germany and Spain dropping out too (to be replaced by Japan).

I suppose if its being done on a big scale then things could be worked out with some give and take? The German x industry gets a boost but for y it's all going to be Italy. Even there though working out which is which will be a pain, and I can imagine France being happy to go along with it when its getting something but then deciding otherwise when its their turn to support a foreign industry.

[Solmyr]

It seems things are looking up for Ukraine. Thanks to the Czechs their ammo supplies are stable for some time to come so they're able to properly use their reserves and make the Russians bleed.

So amazing and depressing that they've been hurt so badly lately due to internal politics of supposed supporters

Manpower will be a problem for Ukraine at some point (it already is somewhat). Russia is mobilizing 300000 men now, and they have three times the population of Ukraine (and much more ability to expend it).