Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Zoupa]

The US sure has balls.

"Hey guys I know we haven't sent you anything for the past 6 months and we also haven't sanctioned russia properly. But can you not bomb your genocidal adversary's main source of income please? We're worried about a 25 cents increase at the pump. kkthanxbai"

Wtf. Trump is not in office now and he's the reason Ukraine aid is blocked. The dude has 91 charges on him. The Dems can't beat a rapist with 91 charges on them?

Absolutely insane. The US has lost the plot and is looking like a fool.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - I fear that's possibly a very generous read (though probably the one Biden's team would make).

It feels a little bit like saying, per a Kyiv analyst I saw, fight an existential war in a way that suits our domestic political needs in an election cycle while we are also not providing you with the means to fight that war in any other way. Which is not great.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Putin is rofloling all the way to the banks.

[The Minsky Moment]

I don't see the point in the attacks.  It's an annoyance to Russia; it doesn't significantly impact either their military capacity or their economy.  Russia recently agreed to cuts within the OPEC+ framework, so they have excess capacity to work with.  I suspect Ukraine may be doing these attacks for lack of anything better to do - the targets are big and can't all be defended, so some drones will get through. But in the context of the war it's a nothingburger.

the obvious response to the US would be - OK then give us the weapons that would really make a difference on the battlefield and we'll do that instead.  But it's not like the Biden administration is the key obstacle there.

[The Minsky Moment]

The dude has 91 charges on him. The Dems can't beat a rapist with 91 charges on them?

Absolutely insane.

Nope and yes.

[Legbiter]

Moscow...  

[Josquius]

I don't see the point in the attacks.  It's an annoyance to Russia; it doesn't significantly impact either their military capacity or their economy.  Russia recently agreed to cuts within the OPEC+ framework, so they have excess capacity to work with.  I suspect Ukraine may be doing these attacks for lack of anything better to do - the targets are big and can't all be defended, so some drones will get through. But in the context of the war it's a nothingburger.

the obvious response to the US would be - OK then give us the weapons that would really make a difference on the battlefield and we'll do that instead.  But it's not like the Biden administration is the key obstacle there.

That's not what I've heard. The Ukrainians understand exactly what parts of the refinery to target - it looks like pin prick attacks on such a big facility but they're hitting very particular parts that are vital to operations and need lengthy repairs using parts not available domestically.

I know nothing about oil refining and this is just what pro Ukrainian channels are saying. But it doesn't seem too unlikely.

[Valmy]

Moscow...  

Yeah what is that all about? Who are these guys?

[Maladict]

Chechen leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, has issued a statement on the attacks, saying: "I strongly condemn such acts of violence, brutality and recklessness against civilians."

Looks like Kadyrov isn't entirely sure they're not Chechens 

[Tamas]

Remember the US embassy in Moscow's warning recently?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/mar/22/moscow-concert-attack-crocus-city-hall-shooting-russia-live-updates

[Valmy]

Remember the US embassy in Moscow's warning recently?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/mar/22/moscow-concert-attack-crocus-city-hall-shooting-russia-live-updates

The embassy also said that it is "monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts".

Actions that US citizens have been encouraged to take include avoiding large crowds, monitoring local media for updates and being aware of surroundings.

Well there was evidence somebody was about to do something I guess. But what kind of extremists are we talking about?

[The Minsky Moment]

That's not what I've heard. The Ukrainians understand exactly what parts of the refinery to target - it looks like pin prick attacks on such a big facility but they're hitting very particular parts that are vital to operations and need lengthy repairs using parts not available domestically.

Perhaps . . .
But over the past year Russia cut 1 million barrels per the OPEC+ cuts.  You'd have to do an awful lot of permanent damage before the excess capacity was breached.

[Solmyr]

Remember the US embassy in Moscow's warning recently?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/mar/22/moscow-concert-attack-crocus-city-hall-shooting-russia-live-updates

The embassy also said that it is "monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts".

Actions that US citizens have been encouraged to take include avoiding large crowds, monitoring local media for updates and being aware of surroundings.

Well there was evidence somebody was about to do something I guess. But what kind of extremists are we talking about?

I'm sure it will be quickly "discovered" that these were Ukrainians and a full mobilization is now justified.

[Zoupa]

I don't see the point in the attacks.  It's an annoyance to Russia; it doesn't significantly impact either their military capacity or their economy.  Russia recently agreed to cuts within the OPEC+ framework, so they have excess capacity to work with.  I suspect Ukraine may be doing these attacks for lack of anything better to do - the targets are big and can't all be defended, so some drones will get through. But in the context of the war it's a nothingburger.

the obvious response to the US would be - OK then give us the weapons that would really make a difference on the battlefield and we'll do that instead.  But it's not like the Biden administration is the key obstacle there.

russia exports lots of crude but doesn't refine much. Obviously the war requires lots of refined oil. Any strike on their refineries is a plus to the war effort.

[Tamas]

I don't see the point in the attacks.  It's an annoyance to Russia; it doesn't significantly impact either their military capacity or their economy.  Russia recently agreed to cuts within the OPEC+ framework, so they have excess capacity to work with.  I suspect Ukraine may be doing these attacks for lack of anything better to do - the targets are big and can't all be defended, so some drones will get through. But in the context of the war it's a nothingburger.

the obvious response to the US would be - OK then give us the weapons that would really make a difference on the battlefield and we'll do that instead.  But it's not like the Biden administration is the key obstacle there.

russia exports lots of crude but doesn't refine much. Obviously the war requires lots of refined oil. Any strike on their refineries is a plus to the war effort.

Yeah this Russian youtuber I follow used to be in the construction sector including oil industry. The way he put it, nobody would admit this, but Russians don't know how to build refineries, he though the attacks were very clever.