And we're back!
Started by mongers, August 06, 2014, 03:12:53 PM
QuoteRUSSIAN ECONOMIC UPDATEIt seems the military secret mobilisation has finally started to hit the Russian economy.When the war started over 700,000 fled abroad. When the mobilisation was announced another 500,000 joined them. Most of these were well paid, young, and educated. And they have resisted any attempt to get them to return to Russia. Russia already has a really disastrous population pyramid. They have far more women than men. Their 0-29 age group is seriously below average - especially against countries like the US. Russian men have a life expectancy of just 58, which is truly terrible. Ultra high alcoholism and an off the charts suicide rate is just one aspect of being a man in Russia. Russian women last out to about 75. Working age Russians are distinctly male, women retire at 56.5 years whereas say in the Uk its 67, men in Russia retire at 61.5 but few live long enough. So Russia has an elderly low survival retired population, the majority of its population is older, it has nowhere near enough young people to pay the bill for older retirees.Russian unemployment is said to run at about 3.0% which is low, but then vast numbers are in the military and 330,000 men are dead from the war.So the number of available workers capable of doing the work required is incredibly tight. To get people to work pay has gone up 9.5% - largely driven by unofficial inflation being over 30%. Even the official rate of inflation has risen to 6.7% suggesting it's easily 25-30% higher than that.The official rate of interest has gone from 7.5% to 15% and that's crushingly high for business and mortgage holders - putting pressure on pay and production costs.Russian factory gate prices have also sky rocketed. They have risen 16.7% in one month which is horrific in any economy of any kind. That jacks up inflation, pay and the cycle continues, magnified by the collapse in the Ruble's value.When that 1.2 million people left demand collapsed. Now the military industrial complex has ramped up it needs workers but keeps having them shipped off to the front. So demand increases while production can't be met because of worker shortages. Russia also has a pensioner problem. Pensions are a massive trigger for unrest in Russia - you don't piss of the pensioners - even considering cutting their payments causes blowback.Russia could allow immigration - but nobody wants to move there. None of its neighbours who used to have workers head to Russia for the pay are doing so - because Russian racism means they pick migrant workers out and send them to the front. Everything Russia tries to do to jack up military production, unless labour is taken from another business to support it, meaning that production then drops in that field, just never pans out. Skilled people keep getting mobilised even when they're classed as essential industrial workers. Even the police have found themselves stretched as their prior immunity is being slowly removed. Driven by incompetence and inconsistent policy application, lack of respect for regulations to meet quotas, has hacked away at industrial production and starkly undermined the economy as a whole. Even though they can see this in their own statistics, nobody will question it as they all try to make themselves look good. There has to be chronic misreporting at a high level to mismanage the strategic situation so badly. But that's dictatorship for you. Lack of honesty, lack of transparency, the need to please and say only what matters is more important than the truth.Russia's economy is in constant flux right now. It doesn't have any stability, its taxes, prices, pay, and costs are all over the place and impossible to forecast. Business isn't doing well and nobody knows how to be honest enough to provide a solution. From our perspective looking in all sounds good to me! Knowing they're having such a hard time works wonders. Now it just has to translate in to defeat.
QuoteU.S. arms makers dominated last week's Dubai Airshow, as Russia failed to report a single sale, with one executive claiming the country had been sidelined from the exhibition's main pavilion.Russian officials brought with them to the exhibition 250 samples of weapons and equipment, but its state aerospace and defense company Rosoboronexport did not secure a single contract during the event, The Moscow Times reported.
Quote from: Jacob on November 23, 2023, 03:05:13 AMI wonder why...
Quote from: Josquius on November 22, 2023, 09:31:29 AMBad news slowly unfolding on the front line and in international support for Ukraine but on the positive side....QuoteRUSSIAN ECONOMIC UPDATE...
QuoteRUSSIAN ECONOMIC UPDATE...
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 27, 2023, 07:42:39 AMQuote from: Josquius on November 22, 2023, 09:31:29 AMBad news slowly unfolding on the front line and in international support for Ukraine but on the positive side....QuoteRUSSIAN ECONOMIC UPDATE...Source?
Quote from: Tamas on November 28, 2023, 03:57:59 AMBTW I suppose the Dnepr doesn't freeze enough to let heavy equipment drive over?
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