Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-15 + 2022 Invasion

Started by mongers, August 06, 2014, 03:12:53 PM

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Malthus

Actually, a more interesting question is when did armoured divisions clash in a war that wan't a one-sided drubbing.  ;)

My guess would be the Iran-Iraq War.
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alfred russel

Quote from: Malthus on August 06, 2014, 05:10:52 PM
Actually, a more interesting question is when did armoured divisions clash in a war that wan't a one-sided drubbing.  ;)

My guess would be the Iran-Iraq War.

What is sort of interesting about the battle I linked to is that it wasn't anticipated to be such a one sided beat down. The Iraqi army was "battle tested" and supposed to be competent. The US was post Vietnam and some were worried about the quality of the post draft enlistees. The M1 was getting press as unsuited for desert warfare and a boondoggle.

In the end, the battle now warrants just a brief wiki article and hardly anyone knows about it.
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DGuller

Quote from: Legbiter on August 06, 2014, 04:10:19 PM
Ukes ain't gonna be pushovers on this. Putin is a fool.
I'm not that optimistic.  You can't rebuild a totally dilapidated army in a couple of months.  If the Russians officially go in, they can officially pound Ukrainians with everything they've got.

Legbiter

Quote from: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 06:31:32 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on August 06, 2014, 04:10:19 PM
Ukes ain't gonna be pushovers on this. Putin is a fool.
I'm not that optimistic.  You can't rebuild a totally dilapidated army in a couple of months.  If the Russians officially go in, they can officially pound Ukrainians with everything they've got.

East Ukrainian op has been a clusterfuck for the Russians. And the Ukes have been blooded and turned into implacable enemies and will crush the Russian proxy forces on present trends. The eastern regions have not really rallied to the Russian cause. This will cost the Russians, dearly.
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Alcibiades

Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2014, 04:20:43 PM
I don't think we sent over any armored divisions.

Most divisions have tank units in them, more or less.

A single brigade in the 4th Infantry Division, for instance, has well over a hundred M1s, let alone Bradely IFVs which outnumber the tanks by a very large margin.
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MadImmortalMan

How many divisions are headquartered at Benning? I saw a shitload of tanks there and it's an infantry base. It was many hundreds of them at least.
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DGuller

Quote from: Legbiter on August 06, 2014, 06:55:57 PM
East Ukrainian op has been a clusterfuck for the Russians.
Not as much as it should've been, considering the types of forces facing off each other.  Once Russia officially starts its peacekeeping mission, however, they can deploy the full might of their air force and artillery.
QuoteAnd the Ukes have been blooded and turned into implacable enemies and will crush the Russian proxy forces on present trends. The eastern regions have not really rallied to the Russian cause. This will cost the Russians, dearly.
Being an implacable enemy provides only so much protection against high explosives.

Razgovory

Quote from: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 06:31:32 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on August 06, 2014, 04:10:19 PM
Ukes ain't gonna be pushovers on this. Putin is a fool.
I'm not that optimistic.  You can't rebuild a totally dilapidated army in a couple of months.  If the Russians officially go in, they can officially pound Ukrainians with everything they've got.

The Ukes don't have to be good, just good enough to stop the Russians.  The Russians have been doing a lot of exercises over the last few months, so they trained up their invasion force.
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DGuller

Quote from: Razgovory on August 06, 2014, 08:33:36 PM
The Ukes don't have to be good, just good enough to stop the Russians.
The guy who finished 7th in the 100 meter dash in the Olympics may have nothing on Usain Bolt, but I'm pretty sure I'm still going to have a hard time beating him.  What makes you think that Ukrainians don't share all the weaknesses of the Russian army?  Everything that Russians are bad at, Ukrainians are worse at.  Both militaries fell apart after USSR crumbled, but only one of them took steps to rebuild and modernize.

mongers

Quote from: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 08:41:03 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 06, 2014, 08:33:36 PM
The Ukes don't have to be good, just good enough to stop the Russians.
The guy who finished 7th in the 100 meter dash in the Olympics may have nothing on Usain Bolt, but I'm pretty sure I'm still going to have a hard time beating him.  What makes you think that Ukrainians don't share all the weaknesses of the Russian army?  Everything that Russians are bad at, Ukrainians are worse at.  Both militaries fell apart after USSR crumbled, but only one of them took steps to rebuild and modernize.

Indeed, the Ukrainian military seems in a poor state, lacking supplies, but at least their morale has lifted from the lows of the Crimean disaster. 

That probably makes any further escalation more worrying still, if the Ukrainians don't put up much of a defence, then other actors have little to time to then decide what to do; 'The West' put up or shut up time?  :ph34r:
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Razgovory

Quote from: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 08:41:03 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 06, 2014, 08:33:36 PM
The Ukes don't have to be good, just good enough to stop the Russians.
The guy who finished 7th in the 100 meter dash in the Olympics may have nothing on Usain Bolt, but I'm pretty sure I'm still going to have a hard time beating him.  What makes you think that Ukrainians don't share all the weaknesses of the Russian army?  Everything that Russians are bad at, Ukrainians are worse at.  Both militaries fell apart after USSR crumbled, but only one of them took steps to rebuild and modernize.

I don't know what would happen if they went at it.  However attacking is harder then defending.  If they both suck at advancing but Russia sucks only slightly less at it while both are average at defending, then victory would go to Ukraine.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Syt

Not sure what could be gained from invading. If they keep supporting "separatists" and keep the East in chaos, they can keep the Ukrainian unstable until someone comes into power who is to their liking. Meanwhile they can spew all kinds of rhetoric about the evil West, and the Fascists in Kiev.
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DGuller

Quote from: Syt on August 06, 2014, 11:17:40 PM
Not sure what could be gained from invading. If they keep supporting "separatists" and keep the East in chaos, they can keep the Ukrainian unstable until someone comes into power who is to their liking. Meanwhile they can spew all kinds of rhetoric about the evil West, and the Fascists in Kiev.
It's not about gaining, it's about avoiding a loss.  The Russian media has zombified the Russian populace into believing that the "separatists" are brave freedom fighters defending themselves against fascist junta.  Letting them get slaughtered wouldn't go down well.  I guess you can zombify them again to convince them that it's no big deal, but nationalist propaganda is dangerous because it tends to work like a ratchet.  You can fire up the sheep a lot easier than you can douse them.