Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

It's fanciful to daydream stuff like the disolution of Russia or things like that, IMO. If something can trigger them to actually use nukes that might be it. Already thinking about regime change is a long shot.

Yeah I find the "decolonising" Russia thing like talking about "decolonising" the US or Canada. There is Russian imperialism - but I think the better analogy than European empires is other 19th century continent-spanning settler states.

From what I understand there are only about 10 regions that don't have a majority Russian population in Russia. Some could feasibly be states, for example in the North Caucasus but others are often pretty isolated, remote regions like, say Sakha. So when talking about "decolonising" Russia is basically either setting up a lot of states with large, if not majority, Russian populations probably looking to reunify or mass population transfer/ethnic cleansing of Russians.

I think it's useful to talk about Russian imperialism but not sure this framing helps.

[Josquius]

It's fanciful to daydream stuff like the disolution of Russia or things like that, IMO. If something can trigger them to actually use nukes that might be it. Already thinking about regime change is a long shot.

Yeah I find the "decolonising" Russia thing like talking about "decolonising" the US or Canada. There is Russian imperialism - but I think the better analogy than European empires is other 19th century continent-spanning settler states.

From what I understand there are only about 10 regions that don't have a majority Russian population in Russia. Some could feasibly be states, for example in the North Caucasus but others are often pretty isolated, remote regions like, say Sakha. So when talking about "decolonising" Russia is basically either setting up a lot of states with large, if not majority, Russian populations probably looking to reunify or mass population transfer/ethnic cleansing of Russians.

I think it's useful to talk about Russian imperialism but not sure this framing helps.

Sure, we're absolutely talking about fantastical stuff here.
Though there are interesting vibes from the Tatars and there's always the Caucasus.

I do think that Russian numbers in many of these regions are over-estimated however with a lot of them being Russian speakers ethnically of the local ethnicity. There was a lot of weird business in Soviet times with needing an official ethnicity for your ID and this often serving to cause problems various ways.

Yugoslav style ethnic conflict is always a big risk but its not impossible looking at other examples of nations that became independent that you could see even pure ethnic Russian folk deciding to show their local pride via identifying with the region and what have you.
Completely realms of fantasy but I still dream of pure naked self interest overriding nationalist bollocks and encouraging Kaliningrad to become an independent Neo Prussia.

[The Larch]

Completely realms of fantasy but I still dream of pure naked self interest overriding nationalist bollocks and encouraging Kaliningrad to become an independent Neo Prussia.

Given that Kaliningrad is basically a Russian military outpost nowadays, what you're asking here is for a section of the Russian army to go rogue, and I don't think that's an ideal thing for peace in Europe. 

[The Brain]

My impression is that the best outcome is a united and dirt poor Russia, if you get to wish. OTOH, if the charge of the Boyar Dino Cavalry can win 6th Borodino for the Raskolnikov League then anything is possible.

[Tamas]

The founder of Russia's Wagner mercenary force, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said that his representative had been denied access to the headquarters of Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine after Prigozhin complained about a lack of ammunition.

Prigozhin had previously said that his troops fighting to seize the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut were being deprived of ammunition and that, if they were forced to retreat, the entire front would collapse.

Prigozhin said via his press service that he had written to the army's top brass, saying his men urgently needed ammunition, Reuters reported.

"On 6 March, at 8 o'clock in the morning, my representative at the headquarters had his pass cancelled and was denied access to the group's headquarters," Prigozhin said.

That Russian Youtuber I keep referencing was convinced a couple of weeks ago that Prigozhin went way past what's acceptable in open criticism of the leadership and now is done for, and would be "set aside" soon.

[Josquius]

Completely realms of fantasy but I still dream of pure naked self interest overriding nationalist bollocks and encouraging Kaliningrad to become an independent Neo Prussia.

Given that Kaliningrad is basically a Russian military outpost nowadays, what you're asking here is for a section of the Russian army to go rogue, and I don't think that's an ideal thing for peace in Europe. 

"Oh no. I didn't mean THOSE Prussians!"

[Jacob]

Seeing reports that Prigozhin's representative to the central command centre has had his credentials revoked. Looks like his star may be losing some shine in Putin's court politics.

[Tamas]

Seeing reports that Prigozhin's representative to the central command centre has had his credentials revoked. Looks like his star may be losing some shine in Putin's court politics.

I bet he is staying well clear of all windows.

[Jacob]

I bet he is staying well clear of all windows.

He still might catch whatever it is that Kadyrov caught.

[Habbaku]

This is the remains of a 10k town that has been on the frontline near Donezk since 2014.

What town is that? Do we have any other evidence? I can't help but look at this and think they appear to be fake. Confirmation in some other sense would be great.

[Sheilbh]

It's Mariinka not sure on the source of those images but there is some drone footage you can watch. Sky News say they've been able to geolocate and verify the footage but not confirm the date - it seems legit:
https://news.sky.com/video/ukraine-war-drone-footage-shows-marinka-devastation-12788935

A thread from FT reporter in Ukraine with some pre-invasion photos:
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1632354109855526912

[Habbaku]

Thanks, Shelibh. Much better coverage than those pictures, which I am still skeptical about, but even if they're fake, the video is plenty of evidence of the scale. 

[mongers]

Maybe we should hope for Prigozhin to coup Putin; I get the impression he's someone we or the Ukranians could strike a deal (peace deal) with?

Have you noticed in his videos he often mentions the courage and tenacity of the Ukranian soldiers and he doesn't seem to use 'they're fascists' propaganda terms.

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXdSxJ5c85w

Matt Gaetz looking stupid in hearing.

[Legbiter]

That man died like a Saga hero.