Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[viper37]

Really hope Ukraine aren't making a huge mistake in trying to hold Bakmut.
Im not a military leader and working from very incomplete info but it really does seem time to get the hell out.

Also, does strike me as potentially interesting to give wagner the victory they desperately want. Would help feed the fires of discord in the Russian leadership.

Yeah, I'm thinking in similar lines, that maybe it's time to retreat.  But are they really surrounded?  Can they really escape and regroup elsewhere?

[Legbiter]

Yeah, I'm thinking in similar lines, that maybe it's time to retreat.  But are they really surrounded?  Can they really escape and regroup elsewhere?

Bakhmut is worth 10 VP so the Ukrainians are reluctant to concede it.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Apparently rheinmetal is in talks to build a tank factory in Ukraine. It might even happen this year

[Jacob]

Kind of interesting. Presumably they think it will be safe against bombing / missile attacks.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Kind of interesting. Presumably they think it will be safe against bombing / missile attacks.

surely everyone that has experience with that is dead by now.... 

[viper37]

Kadyrov is seriously ill and may have been poisoned:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/top-putin-ally-ramzan-kadyrov-seriously-ill-from-suspected-poisoning/ar-AA18dOku?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c192cac4eeb746e78d483d31094eed0d&ei=66

[Sheilbh]

Couldn't happen to a nicer person.

[Zanza]

This is the remains of a 10k town that has been on the frontline near Donezk since 2014.

[The Brain]

Hopefully war reparations will force Russians into Third World living standards for a few generations. I doubt it though.

[Legbiter]

This is the remains of a 10k town that has been on the frontline near Donezk since 2014.

Russkiy mir

[Josquius]

Hopefully war reparations will force Russians into Third World living standards for a few generations. I doubt it though.

Surely that just ups the odds of this shit happening again.

[The Brain]

Hopefully war reparations will force Russians into Third World living standards for a few generations. I doubt it though.

Surely that just ups the odds of this shit happening again.

If they are poor enough they can't afford lots of weapons.

[Tamas]

How much to ruin Russia  with reparations is an interesting topic in light of what happened with Germany after WW1.

But it is an academic question. To force any kind of reparations would require armies big enough to occupy Russia poised to do so, which would not happen even if there was no nuclear threat.

Seeing how currently the only possible forces to coup Putin are found on his right, I would not hold my breath to Russia voluntarily signing up to any peace deal making them pay. In fact, I'd be highly suspicious of any agreements that would see Russian involvement in the rebuild.

I don't know how this is going to end.

I do feel like comparisons to history are apt in the sense that the Cold War was in a political sense a repeat of WW1 in outcome if nothing else - the losing side lost because their economy collapsed under the weight of the struggle, and their multi-ethnic empire(s) could not absorb the political shock.

But this nature and level of defeat was only enough to breed the humiliation and frustration of defeat and collapse, not the internalisation that their system of government and society in general failed and was inferior. Based on these examples I'd say that's not possible until there is overwhelming and very directly experienced military defeat.

Continuing the allegory I guess we are seeing what would have happened if Czechoslovakia was not abandoned in 1938 - the atrocious bluff of the aggressor worked then, it did not work this time.

The threat of MAD is stopping the Western powers from directly intervening, but it is also making it unlikely this conflict will see a proper closure. I think a Korea-style decades-long truce is the best we'll get.

Also I am uncertain whether to wish for the further dissolution of Russia. There are too many nuclear warheads there for prolonged political chaos and possible civil war.

[Josquius]

Dissolution of Russia would be great. If any of the nations of the empire can manage to break free and do it without a genocide then I'm all for it. Not sure I can see many of them going for this of course.
Its Russia remaining united but corrupt, poor, and chaotic which is the worry.

[The Larch]

It's fanciful to daydream stuff like the disolution of Russia or things like that, IMO. If something can trigger them to actually use nukes that might be it. Already thinking about regime change is a long shot.