Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Berkut]

It's obviously not true now. Plenty of examples of even supposidely democratic countries sitting on huge secessionist movements. But they're in the wrong and people should have the right to decide their own fate.

If they are in a democracy, then of course they can decide their own fate. Just elect people who agree with you, and then secede. The South could have legally seceded from the Union - they just had to get enough of their own into Congress to get Congress and the President to agree to such a thing. That is how democracy works, right?

Of wait - you mean people who are not a majority should be able to decided to secede over the protests of those who don't want to secede, right? So this isn't really about "democracy" at all.

People should have the right to decide their own fate. And in democratic countries, they do just that. They don't have the right to decide other peoples fates though, and "referendums" on joining another country always means fucking with someone else, often quite dramatically.

That you are now championing the "right" of the invaders to petition to join the invaders country is kind of breathtaking. Its bizarre the lengths people will go to in order to defend separatists movements. I was kind of stunned to see someone taking up the Lost Cause to do so, now we get to see people basically saying "Well you know, that Putin guys has a point....."

[Josquius]

It's obviously not true now. Plenty of examples of even supposidely democratic countries sitting on huge secessionist movements. But they're in the wrong and people should have the right to decide their own fate.

If they are in a democracy, then of course they can decide their own fate.

OK. So you agree then? So what's the problem?

[OttoVonBismarck]

They already had that in Ukraine before 2014. I'm not sure what your point is anymore. Everyone agrees that democracy is good.

An invaded country is beating back a much larger, autocratic one. Stopping the war would not be a good thing, especially for the civilian population stuck in the occupied areas during this ceasefire.

At this point, russia will be lucky to get a ceasefire once the last vatnik has left Ukraine's territory.

A Russian withdrawal and UN posting to the occupied areas would be part of an optimal peace deal. It's a necessary precondition to have a fair referendum.
As said Russia obviously wouldn't agree to this.

And let's not let current events rewrite reality. Ukraine is definitely a country heading in the right direction, especially in contrast to Russia, but pre 2014 Ukraine wasn't exactly a healthy democracy and when it comes to the right of self determination even considerably more advanced democracies don't do very well.

The invasion is absolutely irrelevant to this fundamental statement of rights that people should have. If Jamtland wants to join Norway - it should be their right to have a referendum on this without a single shot being fired. And if some nutty nationalist from either side does fire shots then that doesn't make this ideal any more or less valid.

Seriously, why are you talking about self-determination? There was no serious move for separation from Ukraine in any of these regions until Russia invaded in 2014. You are essentially arguing that we should enable foreign powers to invade sovereign states and foment political movements to vote for "secession" at the point of a gun. The absolutely stupid, imbecilic idea that if somehow in the future Russia isn't occupying those lands--that have been illegally occupied for years, people deported and sent to reeducation camps, we should then have the population that just spent years under Russian occupation engage in a vote on separation is literally insane.

There are conditions where separatist referenda can make sense, none of those conditions are met anywhere in Ukraine, and even were Ukraine to "win" the war (say a Russian withdrawal even of Crimea), none of these regions would meet those conditions for probably a generation or more.

[Josquius]

They already had that in Ukraine before 2014. I'm not sure what your point is anymore. Everyone agrees that democracy is good.

An invaded country is beating back a much larger, autocratic one. Stopping the war would not be a good thing, especially for the civilian population stuck in the occupied areas during this ceasefire.

At this point, russia will be lucky to get a ceasefire once the last vatnik has left Ukraine's territory.

A Russian withdrawal and UN posting to the occupied areas would be part of an optimal peace deal. It's a necessary precondition to have a fair referendum.
As said Russia obviously wouldn't agree to this.

And let's not let current events rewrite reality. Ukraine is definitely a country heading in the right direction, especially in contrast to Russia, but pre 2014 Ukraine wasn't exactly a healthy democracy and when it comes to the right of self determination even considerably more advanced democracies don't do very well.

The invasion is absolutely irrelevant to this fundamental statement of rights that people should have. If Jamtland wants to join Norway - it should be their right to have a referendum on this without a single shot being fired. And if some nutty nationalist from either side does fire shots then that doesn't make this ideal any more or less valid.

Seriously, why are you talking about self-determination? There was no serious move for separation from Ukraine in any of these regions until Russia invaded in 2014. You are essentially arguing that we should enable foreign powers to invade sovereign states and foment political movements to vote for "secession" at the point of a gun. The absolutely stupid, imbecilic idea that if somehow in the future Russia isn't occupying those lands--that have been illegally occupied for years, people deported and sent to reeducation camps, we should then have the population that just spent years under Russian occupation engage in a vote on separation is literally insane.

There are conditions where separatist referenda can make sense, none of those conditions are met anywhere in Ukraine, and even were Ukraine to "win" the war (say a Russian withdrawal even of Crimea), none of these regions would meet those conditions for probably a generation or more.

Highly debatable that there was no appetite for joining Russia in some parts of Ukraine before everything went down.

Interesting that you say this yet you assume the pro Russia side would win in a fair referendum.

I have precisely the opposite view to you here - there definitely was a significant number pining for this pre invasion and it's unlikely today that Russia would win anywhere except perhaps crimea which is more a coin toss- which if we are looking for a worthile majority rather than a silly 50%+1 in practice means a Ukraine win anyway.

[Sheilbh]

Highly debatable that there was no appetite for joining Russia in some parts of Ukraine before everything went down.

I'm not so sure - there wasn't, from what I understand, a significant separatist movement in Russia. Those regions were more pro-Russian but that was within the context of Ukraine. They wanted Ukraine to be more aligned with Russia, they weren't pushing for independence or joining Russia. I don't think those two are the same thing.

[Berkut]

It's obviously not true now. Plenty of examples of even supposidely democratic countries sitting on huge secessionist movements. But they're in the wrong and people should have the right to decide their own fate.

If they are in a democracy, then of course they can decide their own fate.

OK. So you agree then? So what's the problem?

I'm not the one claiming that democracies are "sitting on separatist movements"  - you are.

I am not the one claiming that "all people everywhere" deserve self determination, then immediately saying that it doesn't mean ALL people, or everywhere, at all. While simultaneously claiming that "so-called" democracies are apparently not democracies because they have "some people somewhere" that want to leave and are not allowed, because other people don't.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

But there was no formal recognition of a sphere of influence.  The US/West gave moral support to dissidents in Eastern Europe / USSR, and sometimes more.

and the USSR bankrolled communist parties (and other kinds of idiots) in the West. Lets not forget that either.

[crazy canuck]

Interesting that you say this yet you assume the pro Russia side would win in a fair referendum.

The point is that the conditions for anything approaching a fair referendum could not be met for some time - Grumbler laid out some of the conditions that might create the circumstances for a fair vote.  It was a good starting list.  And I am sure that we, Grumbler included, would add significantly to that list if put in the position of an actual policy advisor.

[Maladict]

Looks like the Black Sea Fleet took another beating.

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1586460767619977216

[Sheilbh]

I get that basically none of this war has been great for Russia's military - especially compared to their pre-war reputation - but I feel like the navy especially has really underperformed compared with Ukraine - or is that unfair/wrong?

[Grey Fox]

The Air Force is probably the most under performing branch. They had actual modern machines to wage the war with while the Army and Navy did not.

[Barrister]

I get that basically none of this war has been great for Russia's military - especially compared to their pre-war reputation - but I feel like the navy especially has really underperformed compared with Ukraine - or is that unfair/wrong?

I think that's fair.

Now I will note that I understand the Russian Navy is almost entirely operating ships built back in the 1970s-1980s, and that most arms development since Putin came to power has been more towards missiles and new fighter jets.

Now Ukraine doesn't have a meaningful navy at all, but to the extent the Ukrainians are hitting Russian ships with missiles and drones they're using weapons 50 years newer than the Russian ships.

[Barrister]

The Air Force is probably the most under performing branch. They had actual modern machines to wage the war with while the Army and Navy did not.

Fair counter-point.

Now that Ukraine has a lot of modern anti-air systems it's perhaps explainable, but the Russians have been unable to control the airspace over Ukraine for the entirety of the war.

[Berkut]

Interesting that you say this yet you assume the pro Russia side would win in a fair referendum.

The point is that the conditions for anything approaching a fair referendum could not be met for some time - Grumbler laid out some of the conditions that might create the circumstances for a fair vote.  It was a good starting list.  And I am sure that we, Grumbler included, would add significantly to that list if put in the position of an actual policy advisor.

This isn't even the main principle for me.

Even if we assumed there could be a magic, perfectly fair referendum....why?

Why should there be one in the first place? What is happening in these places that justify them getting referendums?

The only thing I know about is that Russia sent a bunch of little green men in and started an insurrection, then invaded, then invaded again, and is now getting this asses kicked.

None of those things seem like things we should consider as being good cause to go and hold referendums on secession.

And if such a thing were to happen, it can only possibly be legitimate if it is instigated and run by the sovereign nation in question, which is Ukraine. Let me know when they let us know they think such a thing should happen...right?

[Barrister]

And if such a thing were to happen, it can only possibly be legitimate if it is instigated and run by the sovereign nation in question, which is Ukraine. Let me know when they let us know they think such a thing should happen...right?

Berkut I've generally been with you on this, but the UN has a long history of running independence referendums.