Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[celedhring]

Have seen some allegations that some of the "poor mobiks stranded somewhere randomly with no equipment, this is a joke" videos are staged.

One guy has appeared in several of them, a number of the "poor mobiks" are wearing balaclavas and their uniforms are sporting Wagner patches... and the videos are being promoted on pro-Wagner social media channels.

What would be its purpose? Trick people into joining Wagner rather than the regular army?

Defame the Ministry of Defence? There seems to be a bit of a turf war between Wagner/allies and the Russian MoD.

[Tamas]

I have seen a mention that Wagner weren't responding to the army wanting them to stop the pointless WW1 "advances" on their section and help avoid the collapse elsewhere, so I guess it is plausible discrediting the public sector company is more important than winning the war for the Wagner people.

Should be beneficial when you want to use your mercenary army to put an heir on the throne, as well. If you decided the war is fubared and must prepare for the world after defeat, it would make sense.

[celedhring]

I have seen a mention that Wagner weren't responding to the army wanting them to stop the pointless WW1 "advances" on their section and help avoid the collapse elsewhere, so I guess it is plausible discrediting the public sector company is more important than winning the war for the Wagner people.

Should be beneficial when you want to use your mercenary army to put an heir on the throne, as well. If you decided the war is fubared and must prepare for the world after defeat, it would make sense.

Heh, have we already got to the point where the Russian command doesn't have operational control of all its forces?

[The Larch]

I have seen a mention that Wagner weren't responding to the army wanting them to stop the pointless WW1 "advances" on their section and help avoid the collapse elsewhere, so I guess it is plausible discrediting the public sector company is more important than winning the war for the Wagner people.

Should be beneficial when you want to use your mercenary army to put an heir on the throne, as well. If you decided the war is fubared and must prepare for the world after defeat, it would make sense.

Heh, are we already to the point where the Russian command doesn't have operational control of all its forces?

Did they ever have it? There so many diverse units on the ground (regular Russian troops, DNR troops, LNR troops, Chechens, Wagner...) that I wonder how responsive some of them are to "orders from Moscow".

[Syt]

Kadyrov, after criticizing the Russian MoD, has been promoted by Putin. Is that Putin's way of approving his message? Or is it a case of, "Hey, want a promotion? You can have one if you STFU."

[Tamas]

Kadyrov, after criticizing the Russian MoD, has been promoted by Putin. Is that Putin's way of approving his message? Or is it a case of, "Hey, want a promotion? You can have one if you STFU."

Has anyone but Kadirov confirmed the promotion though?

[Syt]

Kadyrov, after criticizing the Russian MoD, has been promoted by Putin. Is that Putin's way of approving his message? Or is it a case of, "Hey, want a promotion? You can have one if you STFU."

Has anyone but Kadirov confirmed the promotion though?

Well, TASS are reporting it, so that seems quite official. https://tass.com/politics/1518239

[Legbiter]

Defame the Ministry of Defence? There seems to be a bit of a turf war between Wagner/allies and the Russian MoD.

Yeah God knows. But this is how the Ukrainian war will probably end, internal Russian domestic issues in some form will require it to end. Not necessarily because the last conscripted Russian pensioner finally expired in Ukraine.

[The Larch]

Didn't know if putting this here is the right place or if it deserves its own thread...

Nobel peace prize 2022 awarded to human rights campaigners in Ukraine, Russia and Belarus

Nobel committee awards Ales Bialiatski from Belarus, Russian human rights organisation Memorial and Ukrainian human rights organisation Center for Civil Liberties

[The Brain]

Didn't know if putting this here is the right place or if it deserves its own thread...

Nobel peace prize 2022 awarded to human rights campaigners in Ukraine, Russia and Belarus

Nobel committee awards Ales Bialiatski from Belarus, Russian human rights organisation Memorial and Ukrainian human rights organisation Center for Civil Liberties

Once again the Norwegians don't seem to understand (or, more likely, knowingly ignore) what the Peace Prize is about. This seems to be mostly about civil rights and democracy, and not about peace.

What the Peace Prize is actually about, according to Nobel's will:

who has done the most or best to advance fellowship among nations, the abolition or reduction of standing armies, and the establishment and promotion of peace congresses.

NB fellowship among nations (folkens förbrödrande), not within nations.

I know that they would say that democracy and civil rights make peace a lot more likely, and this may be so, but that still doesn't make it peace. The science prizes aren't awarded to educators.

[The Larch]

I don't blame them for updating the scope of the award to something that makes sense in our days.

[The Brain]

I don't blame them for updating the scope of the award to something that makes sense in our days.

I don't agree with pacifists, but by any measure peace is a very current issue today (and the choices seem indeed to have been inspired by the war in Ukraine). Pacifism doesn't make less sense today than it did around 1900. And more generally it is unsound by states to take a dump on philanthropist wills, it makes writing new ones less appealing.

[Barrister]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/07/putin-inner-circle-dissent/

A member of Vladimir Putin's inner circle has voiced disagreement directly to the Russian president in recent weeks over his handling of the war in Ukraine, according to information obtained by U.S. intelligence.

The criticism marks the clearest indication yet of turmoil within Russia's leadership over the stewardship of a war that has gone disastrously wrong for Moscow, forcing Putin last month to order the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of troops in a desperate bid to reverse recent battlefield losses.

The information was deemed significant enough that it was included in President Biden's daily intelligence briefing and shared with other U.S. officials, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence.

The discontent that the member of Putin's inner circle expressed related to what the insider considered mismanagement of the war effort and mistakes being made by those executing the military campaign, according to one of the people.

VERY interesting story.

I mean it's interesting at first blush - there's dissension in Putin's top ranks over the Ukraine war.

But even more interesting is that this tidbit made it to the Washington Post.  The article itself says the information was in Biden's daily presidential briefing.  The PDB is some highly secret information, and it wouldn't be leaked without some kind of authorization to do so.  Someone wants the world to know there is dissension in Putin's top ranks.

[The Minsky Moment]

Yes it appears either there was a very serious security breach of at the level of someone being locked up and throw away the key or this leak was authorized by the President.

EDIT:  I forgot the other possibility, which is that former President Donald Trump thought about declassifying Presidential briefings while taking a dump today.

[Jacob]

Seeing reports that Starlink stopped working for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in areas where they are driving Russia back. Hoping this is not true.