Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

Seems like we are entering the next stage of the Russian nuclear bluff, probably closely related to the mess they are in Kherson. Some Russian source sharing video of trucks of their unit responsible for their nuclear sites being railroaded around, and saw another video from Moscow of a ballistic missile launcher being driven on some motorway.

I am not an expert but I am fairly certain if they actually wanted to use any such missiles they wouldn't be showing them so openly with ample warning and time given to the enemy to locate and monitor.

[Legbiter]

Seems like we are entering the next stage of the Russian nuclear bluff, probably closely related to the mess they are in Kherson. Some Russian source sharing video of trucks of their unit responsible for their nuclear sites being railroaded around, and saw another video from Moscow of a ballistic missile launcher being driven on some motorway.

Right on schedule.

[alfred russel]

Seems like we are entering the next stage of the Russian nuclear bluff, probably closely related to the mess they are in Kherson. Some Russian source sharing video of trucks of their unit responsible for their nuclear sites being railroaded around, and saw another video from Moscow of a ballistic missile launcher being driven on some motorway.

I am not an expert but I am fairly certain if they actually wanted to use any such missiles they wouldn't be showing them so openly with ample warning and time given to the enemy to locate and monitor.

I'm also not an expert but I would have thought that if you wanted to take Kyiv you wouldn't clog the roads creating a week long traffic jam. Subterfuge hasn't been the strongest part of their game -- which is saying a lot, unfortunately for them.

[Barrister]

Seems like we are entering the next stage of the Russian nuclear bluff, probably closely related to the mess they are in Kherson. Some Russian source sharing video of trucks of their unit responsible for their nuclear sites being railroaded around, and saw another video from Moscow of a ballistic missile launcher being driven on some motorway.

I am not an expert but I am fairly certain if they actually wanted to use any such missiles they wouldn't be showing them so openly with ample warning and time given to the enemy to locate and monitor.

The Biden admin has from very early on had a strategy of publicly announcing intelligence about Russian plans.  This was particularly notable in the lead-up to the invasion.

If the US detects credible signs that the Russians are going to use nukes I'm certainly they['ll announce it.  Otherwise try not to worry to much about what you see in social media.

[Barrister]

After more than a month with most of the attention being in the Kharkiv oblast, it seems like the Ukrainians are making significant advances on Kherson oblast.  They're advancing from the north towards the Dnipro river, again looking like they're trying to encircle troops in Kherson itself.

[Jacob]

I found this brief thread good on the nuclear signaling and how much to worry: https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1577012534837932032

[Grey Fox]

and bought by the Pentagon.

So Starlink is a technology developed by one of Musk's companies. It's deployment in Ukraine has been a success. So far so good.

What I was never clear on is who paid for it. I've been left with the impression that Musk contributed financially to Ukraine's Starlink deployment, but it turns out it was paid for by the American government... is that correct?

Musk seems to be having his Thai boys stuck in a cave moment.

He'll still have to follow it up by throwing his twitter followers against someone who's actually helping for the parallel to really hold.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/08/us-quietly-paying-millions-send-starlink-terminals-ukraine-contrary-spacexs-claims/

[grumbler]

and bought by the Pentagon.


Musk seems to be having his Thai boys stuck in a cave moment.

Yeah, Starlink was always going to be bought by the Pentagon (and other militaries).  That's why it had strong encryption features built into it.

This "peace plan" is nuts.  I might go for it if it included a referendum in Ukraine over whether or not Musk would turn over all his assets of any kind to the Ukrainians.  If he's giving away other peoples' shit, he should give his shit away, too.

[grumbler]

So Starlink is a technology developed by one of Musk's companies. It's deployment in Ukraine has been a success. So far so good.

What I was never clear on is who paid for it. I've been left with the impression that Musk contributed financially to Ukraine's Starlink deployment, but it turns out it was paid for by the American government... is that correct?

Musk gave the Ukrainians the first tranche of Starlink sets (something like 100) and the US government paid for the subsequent tranches (something like 400 more).

[grumbler]

and bought by the Pentagon.

So Starlink is a technology developed by one of Musk's companies. It's deployment in Ukraine has been a success. So far so good.

What I was never clear on is who paid for it. I've been left with the impression that Musk contributed financially to Ukraine's Starlink deployment, but it turns out it was paid for by the American government... is that correct?

Musk seems to be having his Thai boys stuck in a cave moment.

He'll still have to follow it up by throwing his twitter followers against someone who's actually helping for the parallel to really hold.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/08/us-quietly-paying-millions-send-starlink-terminals-ukraine-contrary-spacexs-claims/

Yeah, that's the article I remember (especially because the title was so trollishly at odds with the story).  It was 200 in the first tranche, not 100 as I had remembered.  I had also forgotten that SpaceX donated 3500 of the first 5,000 sent.

[mongers]

In a couple of weeks time it's the 60 anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis. 

[Jacob]

Musk gave the Ukrainians the first tranche of Starlink sets (something like 100) and the US government paid for the subsequent tranches (something like 400 more).

Thanks for the clarification. So still solid, but not saviour-like.

(saw your follow up post as well, and GF's - thank you)

[Valmy]

and bought by the Pentagon.


Musk seems to be having his Thai boys stuck in a cave moment.

Yeah, Starlink was always going to be bought by the Pentagon (and other militaries).  That's why it had strong encryption features built into it.

This "peace plan" is nuts.  I might go for it if it included a referendum in Ukraine over whether or not Musk would turn over all his assets of any kind to the Ukrainians.  If he's giving away other peoples' shit, he should give his shit away, too.

The most insane part is thinking the UN can conduct a fair election while the Russian Army is still occupying the area. And Ukraine is just supposed to sit there while Russia fortifies and resupplies and train and reinforces their forces.

And in the incredibly unlikely scenario the UN does this election successfully, who is going to force the Russians to leave if they lose any of the referenda? The UN election guys?

And what is going to happen if Russia then attacks this neutral Ukraine? Is Musk's robot army going to swoop in and save the day?

[Maximus]

And what is going to happen if Russia then attacks this neutral Ukraine? Is Musk's robot army going to swoop in and save the day?

Yea, we (and Russia) already guaranteed their independence in the Budapest Memorandum. Look where that got them.

[The Larch]

Kremlin unclear on which parts of Ukraine it has 'annexed'
Comments by Putin's spokesperson reflect fact that Russia does not control parts of regions it claims to have annexed

The Kremlin is still determining which areas of occupied Ukraine it has "annexed", Vladimir Putin's spokesperson has said, suggesting Russia does not know where its self-declared international borders are.

The surprising admission came in a phone call with journalists, during which Dmitry Peskov was peppered with requests to clarify to which Ukrainian territory Putin had laid claim at a pomp-filled Kremlin ceremony last week.

Putin has vowed to protect Russia's newly claimed territories using "all means at its disposal", indicating a potential nuclear strike. The lack of a clear red line may undermine his attempts at using nuclear deterrence to halt Ukraine's successful counteroffensive and western support for Kyiv.

Putin on Friday signed four separate "treaties" with the Kremlin-installed leaders of territories occupied by Russia in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

But Russia does not control parts of those regions and is losing ground to a Ukrainian counteroffensive that retook the city of Lyman in Donetsk region on Saturday in a major embarrassment for the Kremlin.

Peskov said Donetsk and Luhansk regions in their entirety were part of Russia, despite Russia's lack of total control over their regions.

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But Peskow said: "We will continue consultations with the population regarding the borders of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions."

Asked for clarification on the issue, which would also define where Russia's self-declared international borders are located, Peskov said: "This is the definitive answer for now."

The annexations are not recognised by the international community.

Russia does not control large parts of Zaporizhzhia region, including the main city of the same name. Ukrainian troops are also advancing in the Kherson region, putting Russia's continued control of that city and the region west of the Dnieper River under question.

The remarks about the "annexed" territories are just the latest embarrassment for the Kremlin and its war machine. Over the weekend, several top officials and propagandists publicly criticised the senior military leadership for their inability to stop the Ukrainian advance.

"I do not know what the defence ministry reports to [Putin], but in my personal opinion, more drastic measures should be taken," wrote Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Chechnya, in a sharply worded post on social media following the loss of Lyman. He suggested further mobilisation of Russian society or the use of a low-yield nuclear weapon against Ukraine as a response.

Asked about Kadyrov's statements, Peskov said they were driven by emotions. "Even in difficult moments, emotions must be excluded while making assessments. We prefer to stick to well-balanced, objective assessments."

Meanwhile, Russia's first mobilisation since the second world war has been dealt another setback as regional officials reported that thousands of Russian men called up to fight had to be sent home because of mistakes in the draft.

"Out of several thousand of our compatriots who had received a summons and arrived at military enlistment offices in the past 10 days, around half were sent back home for failing to meet the selection criteria," said Mikhail Degtyarev, the governor of the far eastern Khabarovsk region.

Degtyarev said he had suspended the military commissar for the region and demanded that "any abuse [in the mobilisation process] must be stopped".