Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Valmy]

Putin made a rousing Nazi speech to an unenthusiastic audience. I don't see why we suddenly need to crumble in fear.

It really was a crazy fascist speech. Wild. Apparently this war is being waged because of trans people.

[Josquius]

From what I've read of the summary it does seem loopy.
The modern right is just so bizzare. Screaming about nazis with one breath then very nazi things about minorities with another.

[Legbiter]

It really was a crazy fascist speech. Wild. Apparently this war is being waged because of trans people.

For added black humor the first trans US miltary officer ever was yesterday charged with spying for...Russia. 

The U.S. Army's first transgender officer and his wife, a Maryland doctor, were indicted on conspiracy charges Wednesday for allegedly attempting to transfer confidential military medical information to Russia.

The Simulation seems to be run by a dedicated Coen brothers fan.

[Jacob]

That's just... I can't even...

Some combination of    

[HVC]

Medical info? Doesn't seem like it would have much value.

[Jacob]

Medical info? Doesn't seem like it would have much value.

Medical info could potentially be used to blackmail someone, impersonate them, or improve the chance of catching them with phishing. Seems valuable enough.

[alfred russel]

Putin made a rousing Nazi speech to an unenthusiastic audience. I don't see why we suddenly need to crumble in fear.

What's he going to do next? Make another mean speech?

He's going to use nukes? THIS time he means it, compared to the other fifty times he's smarmily threatened the world with nuclear war?

Empty bluster. Stay the course.

Jacob, I think our posture has generally been too aggressive in Ukraine...the problem with my perspective is that nuclear war is a low probability event with high consequences so while the risk may be worth sacrifice to avoid it is still unlikely to materialize. Also in this case, should the dire consequences come to pass, we are likely to be killed which eliminates any possibility of gloating.

Give me this comfort: will you assure me that as the missiles are in the air, before we are engulfed by nuclear fire, you will take a moment to acknowledge, "AR was right after all."

[Jacob]

Dorsey- I agree with this analysis of Putin's speech: https://twitter.com/KonstantinKisin/status/1575853684852150272?t=gKGa9JOFrCtbq2iOftdVvA&s=19

This is not about Ukraine. This is about Putin's play to tear down the West. He says so himself.

[Jacob]

If missiles are in the air I won't be thinking of you at all. Sorry

[alfred russel]

Dorsey- I agree with this analysis of Putin's speech: https://twitter.com/KonstantinKisin/status/1575853684852150272?t=gKGa9JOFrCtbq2iOftdVvA&s=19

This is not about Ukraine. This is about Putin's play to tear down the West. He says so himself.

Sounds like a 21st century televised version of Hitler ranting in the bunker.

[Jacob]

Basically, my take is this:

Putin is not at war with the West because he wants Ukraine. Putin's desire to destroy Ukraine is a strategic step in part of his larger war to destroy the West.

Whatever the West does there that leaves Putin in power - stand strong, negotiate a "reasonable settlement", cave in, or even do the Trumpist "we are really on the same side, let's sell out America's friends and allies and institutions for personal wealth" - Putin will continue his campaign to destroy the West.

Given that, I think our best bet is to face him down.

As for nuclear weapons, I'll start getting worried once Russia goes into a nuclear posture (physically rather than rhetorically).

[Jacob]

Sounds like a 21st century televised version of Hitler ranting in the bunker.

Indeed. There's no feasible off-ramp there (other than Trump, Stone, and MTG et. al. selling out American democracy).

[alfred russel]

Jacob, Putin's Russia isn't a real threat to the West except in terms of having thousands of nuclear weapons. Its economy is something like Canada's, it is in demographic decline, its cultural output is somehow even less than under the USSR and meaningless, and its army sucks.

We won the much more serious cold war by avoiding serious confrontation and just waiting it out. Putin's rhetoric, while more unhinged, has some echoes of Soviet anti-western propaganda and is probably in that spirit: the USSR had communism as an ideological perspective; Putin probably doesn't think his state's animating principles of corruption and oligarchy work as well so he tries to substitute anti trans nonsense.

[PJL]

Jacob, Putin's Russia isn't a real threat to the West except in terms of having thousands of nuclear weapons. Its economy is something like Canada's, it is in demographic decline, its cultural output is somehow even less than under the USSR and meaningless, and its army sucks.

The problem is that the except is a very big except. All the sailing ships in the world are no match for a dreadnaught, and the same thing applies here. At the end of the day for destructive power, nuclear weapons easily trumps conventional weapons a hundred times over. As long as Russia has those nuclear weapons they are a real threat to the West (or anyone else). Anything else they have doesn't count.

[OttoVonBismarck]

The problem with Putin's Russia is we actually pretended we didn't need to confront it for 14 years, it is not at all a problem of not being confrontational enough. We should have pushed Putin to the point of war over his incursion into Georgia, back in 2007/8, and hard. Putin is essentially a rabid dog, and rabid dogs don't understand anything but a vicious kick to the skull.