Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Crazy_Ivan80]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPnd20TbskI&ab_channel=JakeBroe

now with traffic news for the core of russia...

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If push comes to shove Ukraine can push even harder on the surrender-pedal. Telling Russians in the meat grinder that they'll be taken care of if they just give up.

[Zanza]

On the other hand state of the art air defense (aside from the Stingers) is not something I have seen in the lists of gear handed over to Ukraine.

Germany will deliver a state of the art air defense system IRIS T-SLM later this year.

[grumbler]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPnd20TbskI&ab_channel=JakeBroe

now with traffic news for the core of russia...

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If push comes to shove Ukraine can push even harder on the surrender-pedal. Telling Russians in the meat grinder that they'll be taken care of if they just give up.

Someone needs to tell that guy not to read aloud what his audience is reading for themselves at 20 times his speaking speed.  That is too boring to tolerate.

You are correct that Ukraine can (and, I'm sure, will) continue to make surrender a relatively painless and effective response to the incompetence of the Russian soldiers' leaders.

[Sheilbh]

Clever response from Ukraine's deputy PM:

Oleksiy Sorokin
@mrsorokaa
Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk says Russian soldiers should surrender. They won't be exchanged against their will.

"If you don't want to return to Russia, then, according to the Geneva Conventions and Ukrainian law, no one will transfer you back to Russia," she said.

I'd also look at encouraging Turkey to lay on even more flights/routes out - force Putin to close the border if he has to.

Separately while the order says they'll receive training, local enlistment offices are saying those with "previous military experience" may be sent to the front straight away. I expect "previous military experience" will be interpreted broadly and lots will basically be mobilised and straight on the train.

[grumbler]

Apparently, Ukrainians are using HARM missiles in surface-to-air engagements.  Dunno if that's an innovation of theirs, or if that's become a standard tactic with antiradiation missiles, but it's interesting if true.

[grumbler]

Separately while the order says they'll receive training, local enlistment offices are saying those with "previous military experience" may be sent to the front straight away. I expect "previous military experience" will be interpreted broadly and lots will basically be mobilised and straight on the train.

Probably, but what will they be equipped with?  Imagine how demoralizing it will be for 50-year-old draftees to find themselves given broken equipment that was obsolete long before they first served.

[Sheilbh]

Probably, but what will they be equipped with?  Imagine how demoralizing it will be for 50-year-old draftees to find themselves given broken equipment that was obsolete long before they first served.

Yep - I think this was from the WSJ (but quoted by Economist defence reporter):

Shashank Joshi
@shashj
"The experience of the so-called "mobiks"—the forcibly mobilized soldiers from Luhansk and Donetsk—shows the depth of the Russian predicament. They were sent to fight with pre-World War II vintage Mosin-Nagant rifles and with antiquated steel helmets."

It does just make you think of Russia in WW1 - except then Russia was a violently, chaotically dynamic country that was still a rising power in many ways.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

maybe we'll see some tercios at some point? Assuming the russians already have that innovation

[Josquius]

Curious on the Ukrainian conscripts been sent off with pre ww2 guns. You'd think if there's one thing Russia has plenty of its kalishnakovs. And those guys have been armed for years.
I wonder if there's some distrust of these troops and wanting to make sure they're inferior to Russians at work.

I think Putin's meta aims were never that concerned with square acreage seized, but more replacing the Ukrainian regime with what he had before Maidan, which was a pliable puppet controlling Kyiv. Russia has a lot of land, and while we've discussed some of the strategic and economic benefits to the land they have seized, none of it is meaningful enough versus the costs. Without getting Ukraine back as a puppet the war is hard to justify on any sort of cost/benefit analysis.

And to be honest, much of the real practical strategic benefit to controlling Ukrainian land was already achieved before Maidan in the form of Russia's quasi-permanent lease of the naval facilities at Sevastopol in Crimea, that was the biggest strategic importance for Russia in Ukraine, and was not ever at risk. It was even more not at risk when Putin seized and annexed Crimea. Arguably it is now more at risk than it has been at any point in our lifetimes.

Oil and gas is a key reason to want Ukraine. There's been some recent discoveries there that stand to be worth quite a bit and to threaten Russias dominance of the market.
Ukraine as a transit point for Russian gas is also a key reason to secure it.
The interpretarions of Russia as a gas company that happens to run a nation have a lot to them.

[mongers]

I saw an interview with one of the civilians liberated in Izyum, he said the regular Russian forces were so-so with how they treated Ukrainian civilians (he used the so-so hand jesture as well), but he went on to say the Luhansk peoples military/militia were Crazy (he used the single handed thumb in ear with a flapping hand jesture), said they'd get drunk and start shooting each other /themselves, let alone everyone else. A real reign of terror.

[Josephus]

Anti Putin protests in Moscow. Surprisingly the kids aren't too keen on being called up. This might be Putin's biggest error yet.

[Admiral Yi]

Does anyone know how one becomes a reservist in Russia?  Voluntary or automatic after serving?

[grumbler]

Does anyone know how one becomes a reservist in Russia?  Voluntary or automatic after serving?

Automatic after serving.  True for the US as well.

The Russian difference is that there is no time limit to serving in the reserves, except age.

[Admiral Yi]

Just heard that Ukraine now has 700,000 people in uniform.

Kinda reminds me of the first Arab Israeli War.

[Jacob]

The surviving Azovstal defenders - including commanders - have apparently released as part of a prisoner exchange for Medvedchuk (and some others)