BREAKING NEWS - Malaysian airliner crashes on Russian-Ukrainian border

[Syt]

It's amusing how RT, ITAR-TASS and RIA Novosti mostly talk of "the crash" rarely, if ever, mentioning that the plane was shot down.

Though I guess it's implied in an RT article:

"We repeatedly called upon all conflicting sides to stop the bloodshed immediately and sit down at the negotiating table," the President reminded. "I can say with confidence that if military operations were not resumed on June 28 in eastern Ukraine, this tragedy wouldn't have happened."

[Berkut]

I was not pleased really with Obama calling for a cease-fire.

That was rather an odd thing to demand, considering it is pretty much playing straight into Russian/separatist hands.

Why would or should the Ukraine honor a cease fire that leaves part of their country under rebel control - especially when they are winning?


It struck me at the time as kind of an "amateur" thing to demand - like the kind of demand you make as a matter of course (People fighting? Demand a cease-fire! Cease-fire is good, right?), but only (in this case) if you don't really think about who would benefit from such a thing.

[Warspite]

I was not pleased really with Obama calling for a cease-fire.

That was rather an odd thing to demand, considering it is pretty much playing straight into Russian/separatist hands.

Why would or should the Ukraine honor a cease fire that leaves part of their country under rebel control - especially when they are winning?

It struck me at the time as kind of an "amateur" thing to demand - like the kind of demand you make as a matter of course (People fighting? Demand a cease-fire! Cease-fire is good, right?), but only (in this case) if you don't really think about who would benefit from such a thing.

I can see your point. A few thoughts in haste;

But renewed fighting also benefits the rebels, because it gives Russia the justification and cover to increase their assistance to the separatists and also to denounce "escalation".

Given the Ukrainians don't have the capacity to crush the rebels in one fell swoop, calling for a ceasefire makes sense if it is tied with efforts to diplomatically isolate the rebels and Russia.

The closest analogy to this crisis (admittedly an imperfect one) was former Yugoslavia, and there the US mode of operation seemed to be to call for deescalation and ceasefires unless the Good Guys were ready to militarily trounce the others - see Operation Storm and the Bosniak-Croat offensives of summer 1995.

[CountDeMoney]

The closest analogy to this crisis (admittedly an imperfect one) was former Yugoslavia, and there the US mode of operation seemed to be to call for deescalation and ceasefires unless the Good Guys were ready to militarily trounce the others - see Operation Storm and the Bosniak-Croat offensives of summer 1995.

Which, by then, was too late.

[Warspite]

The closest analogy to this crisis (admittedly an imperfect one) was former Yugoslavia, and there the US mode of operation seemed to be to call for deescalation and ceasefires unless the Good Guys were ready to militarily trounce the others - see Operation Storm and the Bosniak-Croat offensives of summer 1995.

Which, by then, was too late.

Had to give the Europeans a go at screwing it up first.

[KRonn]

Another released wiretap from SBU reveals that Moscow is urging the rebels to make sure black boxes don't fall into the hands of OSCE.  You'd think they would be looking for a secure line by now.  The other story hidden in plain view is that all those intercepted conversations are between rebel commanders and intelligence officers in Russia.

Yeah, plus the fact that the Russkies and Rebels, many of whom are one and the same, are preventing investigators from getting into the area or hampering their job. They don't want the investigators there, at least not until they "clean up" the area a bit of envidence of their involvement. That way it may help them try and deflect, by trying to blame Ukraine or what ever. To me that right there says they're culpable for this tragedy, because if Ukrainian forces had done it, like Russia initially said and will try to peddle that excuse, then they'd want investigators in there.

[DGuller]

I was not pleased really with Obama calling for a cease-fire.

That was rather an odd thing to demand, considering it is pretty much playing straight into Russian/separatist hands.

Why would or should the Ukraine honor a cease fire that leaves part of their country under rebel control - especially when they are winning?


It struck me at the time as kind of an "amateur" thing to demand - like the kind of demand you make as a matter of course (People fighting? Demand a cease-fire! Cease-fire is good, right?), but only (in this case) if you don't really think about who would benefit from such a thing.

I think a lot of calls for cease-fire are rituals in a complicated diplomatic game.  You say it because it's polite, but you don't expect anyone to actually act on your calls (there may be a cease-fire brokered, but it wouldn't be due to public exhortation to everyone to just get along).

[Berkut]

I was not pleased really with Obama calling for a cease-fire.

That was rather an odd thing to demand, considering it is pretty much playing straight into Russian/separatist hands.

Why would or should the Ukraine honor a cease fire that leaves part of their country under rebel control - especially when they are winning?


It struck me at the time as kind of an "amateur" thing to demand - like the kind of demand you make as a matter of course (People fighting? Demand a cease-fire! Cease-fire is good, right?), but only (in this case) if you don't really think about who would benefit from such a thing.

I think a lot of calls for cease-fire are rituals in a complicated diplomatic game.  You say it because it's polite, but you don't expect anyone to actually act on your calls (there may be a cease-fire brokered, but it wouldn't be due to public exhortation to everyone to just get along).

I thought it was more "pro-forma" thing to say, without actually thinking it through, like he was winging it - I noticed he didn't repeat the call.

I can just imagine his advisors in the background going "NO DON'T SAY THAT!!!!" after he comes off...

I've heard he has a tendency to go "off script" at times in his speeches, which probably works well sometimes, but could get him into trouble in cases like this.

Probably doesn't really matter. And of course I am completely speculating.

[Razgovory]

I was not pleased really with Obama calling for a cease-fire.

That was rather an odd thing to demand, considering it is pretty much playing straight into Russian/separatist hands.

Why would or should the Ukraine honor a cease fire that leaves part of their country under rebel control - especially when they are winning?


It struck me at the time as kind of an "amateur" thing to demand - like the kind of demand you make as a matter of course (People fighting? Demand a cease-fire! Cease-fire is good, right?), but only (in this case) if you don't really think about who would benefit from such a thing.

I am inclined to agree.  Obama has not handled this well at all.  In fact, I still think his blundering in Syria has emboldened Putin here.

[DGuller]

I was not pleased really with Obama calling for a cease-fire.

That was rather an odd thing to demand, considering it is pretty much playing straight into Russian/separatist hands.

Why would or should the Ukraine honor a cease fire that leaves part of their country under rebel control - especially when they are winning?


It struck me at the time as kind of an "amateur" thing to demand - like the kind of demand you make as a matter of course (People fighting? Demand a cease-fire! Cease-fire is good, right?), but only (in this case) if you don't really think about who would benefit from such a thing.

I am inclined to agree.  Obama has not handled this well at all.  In fact, I still think his blundering in Syria has emboldened Putin here.

Yeah, agreed in general.  Unless Obama is pulling a mother of all rope-a-dopes, or playing a long game none of us can see coming, it's defintely bad luck for the world that he's the one facing down Putin as a US president for the next 2.5 years.

[derspiess]

So I guess Russia's line is now that there was a Ukrainian military plane flying very close to the downed airliner.  Wonder if that could be a prelude to an admission that the separatists shot it down (while still blaming the Ukrainian gov't. for orchestrating the disaster, I'm sure).

[Malthus]

If I was this guy, I'd try buying a lottery ticket. Just in case luck really is a tangible thing. 

http://abcnews.go.com/International/dutch-cyclist-avoids-tragedy-scheduled-doomed-flights/story?id=24632968

A Dutch cyclist escaped tragedy twice after being scheduled to fly on doomed Malaysia Airlines flights -- Flight MH 17, which was shot down over eastern Ukraine, and Flight MH 370, which disappeared over the Indian Ocean in March.

According to a Netherlands public broadcaster RTV Oost, Maarten de Jonge was scheduled to be on both Malaysia Airlines Flight MH 17 and the still missing flight MH 370. In both cases de Jonge ended up changing his flight at the last minute.

In a statement on his website De Jonge, 29, confirmed he had been scheduled to take the doomed flight on Thursday but ended up changing his ticket for another flight this weekend.

"What has happened is terrible, so many victims, that's a horrible thing," de Jonge said in a translated statement on his website. "I have my story done and I would like to leave it ... my story is ultimately nothing compared to the misery in which so many people are paid."

De Jonge told RTV Oost in spite of his close calls with disaster, he plans on flying to Malaysia later this week and isn't worried about the flight.

[derspiess]

If I were him I'd continue the routine of canceling the original flight every time he travels.  Kept him alive this far....

[Admiral Yi]

The closest analogy to this crisis (admittedly an imperfect one) was former Yugoslavia, and there the US mode of operation seemed to be to call for deescalation and ceasefires unless the Good Guys were ready to militarily trounce the others - see Operation Storm and the Bosniak-Croat offensives of summer 1995.

I don't recall the US calling for anything at all up until Dayton.

Speesh: nice try to defend the guy, but that was a dumbass comment by Paul.

[alfred russel]

The closest analogy to this crisis (admittedly an imperfect one) was former Yugoslavia, and there the US mode of operation seemed to be to call for deescalation and ceasefires unless the Good Guys were ready to militarily trounce the others - see Operation Storm and the Bosniak-Croat offensives of summer 1995.

I'm not sure that was the plan, even if that is what happened. There was lots of condemnation of Operation Storm, and I think before being over turned had the status of something of a war crime.

I think a better description of what happened is the western world saw bad things happening, said "STOP! CEASEFIRE!" Either because serbs are bad or because they started in a position to do bad things, they did more bad things to start with, thus they got hit with tougher sanctions.

Over time the initial serb advantages wore off, and the sanctions took their toll. The croats had the strength to launch storm, but the west didn't especially welcome it.