Bright Future for Solar Energy?

[Jacob]

Interesting article on solar power: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/07/solar-has-won-even-if-coal-were-free-to-burn-power-stations-couldnt-compete

It looks like there are places where solar power is becoming economically viable to the point that it's beginning to be disruptive to the established power ecosystem. I found this interesting, as I've been reading about attempts at holding back solar power through the use of regulatory and monopolistic practices (i.e. power companies charging people for installing solar panels on their property etc).

I get the impression that in the US, solar power has become part of the political 'culture war' at least somewhat (what hasn't?), but that it's not necessarily a completely perfect and permanent fit. Yes, solar seems sort of newfangled and hippieish and so on and has often been dismissed as an impractical pipe-dream.

On the other hand, the ability of individuals and individual businesses to have more control over their own energy seems appealing enough to a broad swathe of independent minded don't-tread-on-me types on the right wing as well, and if the economics start being clearly favourable for solar (as the article says is happening) I expect it to be more appealing across the spectrum in the US... or are there other factors that make that unlikely?

Is the "rolling coal" and sentiments widespread enough that it will seriously set back solar power, even if the economic argument is strong? I've seen 'anti-environmentalist' attitudes expressed here on languish on occasion, but I'm unsure to what degree it's just habitual languish posturing and to what degree it represents a real and significant attitude in America.

What's your take on solar power?

[Valmy]

Solar Power is troublesome to deal with because of its variable output and can be really disruptive once it is popular enough to be a large percentage of the input power to a grid.  I mean those things are hard enough to operate with consistent power inputs.  I think the widespread use of things like solar and win require new grid technology.  If we can handle that problem I do not see any particular reason why we couldn't use huge amounts of solar here in the sunny SW United States.

Spicey loves all the green jobs it provides.

[garbon]

Solar Power is troublesome to deal with because of its variable output and can be really disruptive once it is popular enough to be a large percentage of the input power to a grid.  I mean those things are hard enough to operate with consistent power inputs.  I think the widespread use of things like solar and win require new grid technology.  If we can handle that problem I do not see any particular reason why we couldn't use huge amounts of solar here in the sunny SW United States.

[Barrister]

Solar's future might be a little bit too bright - some plants are cooking bird in mid-flight.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/wild_things/2014/07/08/solar_power_plants_burning_birds_usfws_report_on_california_facilities_and.html?wpisrc=hpsponsoredd2

[Jacob]

Solar Power is troublesome to deal with because of its variable output and can be really disruptive once it is popular enough to be a large percentage of the input power to a grid.  I mean those things are hard enough to operate with consistent power inputs.  I think the widespread use of things like solar and win require new grid technology.  If we can handle that problem I do not see any particular reason why we couldn't use huge amounts of solar here in the sunny SW United States.

The article mentioned that the mass installation of batteries to store excess power was a very likely next step, essentially allowing households (and businesses) using solar power to move off the grid almost entirely. The grid issue, then, may prove to be less of an issue in the end.

Spicey loves all the green jobs it provides.

I'm actually quite interested in Spicey's take on this. He does a good job of coming across as a dedicated culture warrior when he choses to, but he is also down with cogent arguments and analysis when the mood strikes him.

On the surface, I'd expect him to be against solar power and ridicule it because that seems to be the default 'conservative' position in the US, but I expect him to be open to rational economic analysis as well if the facts are convincing enough. And personally, I expect "pay a couple of grand and never have to pay another power bill again" to be pretty convincing across the political spectrum if/when we get to that point, whatever your feelings may be on environmental issues.

[Jacob]

From the article:

The truly scary prospect for coal generators, however, is that this equation will become economically viable in the big cities. Investment bank UBS says this could happen as early as 2018.

The CSIRO, in its Future Grid report, says that more than half of electricity by 2040 may be generated, and stored, by "prosumers" at the point of consumption. But they warn that unless the incumbent utilities can adapt their business models to embrace this change, then 40% of consumers will quit the grid.

... this is all in an Australian context, but if it works out I don't think the repercussions will be confined to that location only.

[crazy canuck]

A small solar generation facility is being built on the site of an abandoned mine in Kimberley BC to test the viability.  The backers hope it will grow into something big.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/sunmine-solar-farm-construction-begins-in-kimberley-b-c-1.2699478

[Jacob]

A small solar generation facility is being built on the site of an abandoned mine in Kimberley BC to test the viability.  The backers hope it will grow into something big.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/sunmine-solar-farm-construction-begins-in-kimberley-b-c-1.2699478

Good luck to them. I'm guessing Kimberly gets more sunshine than our part of BC does.

[The Brain]

Vast battery capacity doesn't sound eco-friendly.

[Jacob]

Vast battery capacity doesn't sound eco-friendly.

Yeah... but in the end energy decisions are going to be made on economic grounds.

[Valmy]

Vast battery capacity doesn't sound eco-friendly.

The eco-friendliness of solar is really over-rated.  The mining of the materials for construction alone is not something Gaia-fans will like.  However it does help with that greenhouse gases thing if that's your thing.

[Jacob]

Vast battery capacity doesn't sound eco-friendly.

The eco-friendliness of solar is really over-rated.  The mining of the materials for construction alone is not something Gaia-fans will like.  However it does help with that greenhouse gases thing if that's your thing.

So maybe the trick to get the coal-rollers amongst the right wing on board is to make it clear to them that there's environmental damage from solar power too.

[crazy canuck]

A small solar generation facility is being built on the site of an abandoned mine in Kimberley BC to test the viability.  The backers hope it will grow into something big.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/sunmine-solar-farm-construction-begins-in-kimberley-b-c-1.2699478

Good luck to them. I'm guessing Kimberly gets more sunshine than our part of BC does.

Yes, also it is high on a mountain ridge which may be above the level of low lying cloud and it benefits from solar rays reflecting off the snow.  It also has the advantage that all the electrical infrastructure left over from the mine is still there and so they dont have to go to the expense of laying power cables to hook up to the power grid.   A good low cost way to test it out.

Also I have heard that Canadian researchers have developed a silicon coating which can deliver signficantly more efficient panels and at a signficantly lower cost of production (basically it is just painted on).  They are still in development but advances like that will make the cost per kiliwatt hour for solar power much more attractive as an alternative.   If BC could develop a power grid which was mainly reliant on hydro and solar that would be great but it is a long way off yet.

[The Brain]

Vast battery capacity doesn't sound eco-friendly.

The eco-friendliness of solar is really over-rated.  The mining of the materials for construction alone is not something Gaia-fans will like.  However it does help with that greenhouse gases thing if that's your thing.

That was a temporary medical condition.

[frunk]

The article mentioned that the mass installation of batteries to store excess power was a very likely next step, essentially allowing households (and businesses) using solar power to move off the grid almost entirely. The grid issue, then, may prove to be less of an issue in the end.

US households average just under 30 kWh per day.  If you assume that ~half of that would need to be stored each day (meaning on cloudy, rainy or winter days you'd still probably have to draw off the grid) that's 15 kWh of storage.  At the moment Lead Acid batteries are the cheapest bulk option, and it's about 25 kg per kWh of storage.  Which means our house would need 375 kg of batteries to be mostly off the grid in the sunny days of summer.  To cover a 4-5 day span with little or no sun you'd probably need 10 times that or 3750 kg.  Let's not get into the maintenance that that amount of Lead Acid batteries would require.  This article estimates that ongoing costs of battery storage would be about $0.30 per kWh, which puts the average American family's electricity storage bill at $270 per month.

At the moment mass storage is still far too expensive to be that practical.