The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Megathread

[jimmy olsen]

By then it'd be too late.  Airstrikes won't do much at that point, and I doubt you'll see Israeli tanks rolling into Beirut and Damascus.

If ISIS takes Damascus and launches a full scale invasion of Lebanon I have a hard time seeing the Israelis not sending in everything they've got.

[Tonitrus]

By then it'd be too late.  Airstrikes won't do much at that point, and I doubt you'll see Israeli tanks rolling into Beirut and Damascus.

If ISIS takes Damascus and launches a full scale invasion of Lebanon I have a hard time seeing the Israelis not sending in everything they've got.

Israel trying to occupy Lebanon and Syria?  I doubt Hezbollah would be cheering that liberation.  They'd be nothing but targets for everyone they see, and as soon as they leave, the whack-an-ISIS-mole just pops right back into place.

A Fortress Israel that obliterates anything getting close to their border is more likely.  Kinda like in World War Z.

[Tonitrus]

Heck, it's probably more likely that the U.S. Marines would return to Lebanon than Israel going on a grand tour.  And that wouldn't be any fun for us either.

[KRonn]

With Hezbollah helping prop up Assad as much as they have, I wonder how long Lebanon has after Syria falls.

And Jordan should be looking out too.  It'w kinda crazy to cheer on the death of Assad's regime when ISIS is gunning for everybody in the long run.

I think Lebanon would be next, or one of the next. Israel would have a hard time fighting ISIS there unless allied with Hezbollah. Last time Israel went in to stop the rockets and artillery they found Hezbollah to be a very strong and well armed group. They rival the Lebanese government.

I think Jordan should fare better since it's a more united nation and from what I can surmise it seems they'd fight hard against ISIS.

ISIS is now in Afghanistan and making alliances with other groups there, though I don't think very friendly with the Taliban. But ISIS is supposedly gaining a lot of strength there, gaining resource areas such as mining, making money.

[Tonitrus]

ISIS has been smart not to, so far, work outside what are essentially failed states.  And I agree, once they've secured their hold on Syria, Lebanon is the next most failed state/target.  I agree Jordan would fight hard, but would be in dire straights without significant support.  Iran will be mostly content to hold them off from the Shia-dominated areas of Iraq.

But still, Turkey, Jordan, and SA have to be crazy to be so seemingly content to let ISIS grow up to their borders knowing that they are all on the hit list. 

[jimmy olsen]

By then it'd be too late.  Airstrikes won't do much at that point, and I doubt you'll see Israeli tanks rolling into Beirut and Damascus.

If ISIS takes Damascus and launches a full scale invasion of Lebanon I have a hard time seeing the Israelis not sending in everything they've got.

Israel trying to occupy Lebanon and Syria?  I doubt Hezbollah would be cheering that liberation.  They'd be nothing but targets for everyone they see, and as soon as they leave, the whack-an-ISIS-mole just pops right back into place.

A Fortress Israel that obliterates anything getting close to their border is more likely.  Kinda like in World War Z.

I don't think they'd go far into Syria, but Lebanon, I think they would.

[jimmy olsen]

ISIS has been smart not to, so far, work outside what are essentially failed states.  And I agree, once they've secured their hold on Syria, Lebanon is the next most failed state/target.  I agree Jordan would fight hard, but would be in dire straights without significant support.  Iran will be mostly content to hold them off from the Shia-dominated areas of Iraq.

But still, Turkey, Jordan, and SA have to be crazy to be so seemingly content to let ISIS grow up to their borders knowing that they are all on the hit list.

I think that Yemen must be on their list as well, then they can work on the Suadis from two directions. They already have affiliates there.

EDIT: Damn, they hit Ramadi with 30 car bombs, ten as powerful as the one used in Oklahoma City
https://twitter.com/HannahAllam/status/601065335366750208

[KRonn]

But still, Turkey, Jordan, and SA have to be crazy to be so seemingly content to let ISIS grow up to their borders knowing that they are all on the hit list.

It seems that they've been waiting for a lot more US and Euro help or something, because they're limited in what they can do unless they can band together well. This is something new to them, something that'll take a change in mindset, is what it seems to me part of the reason why they hold back. Also costly for some like Jordan which isn't an oil rich nation.

And you're right - so far ISIS is winning everywhere and taking more territory. They're a nation state, with their fairly well organized government departments and leadership. They're already in Libya, another failed state thanks to feckless and reckless intervention by US and Europe, and they seem to feel pretty secure there.

[jimmy olsen]

Turkey could roll over both Syria and Iraq at the same time. It could have probably done so even when both Saddam and Assad were firmly in power. They just don't want to exert the effort to do so.

[Eddie Teach]

Turkey could roll over both Syria and Iraq at the same time. It could have probably done so even when both Saddam and Assad were firmly in power. They just don't want to exert the effort to do so.

They'd have the same mess the US did after rolling over Iraq and Afghanistan.

[KRonn]

ISIS has been smart not to, so far, work outside what are essentially failed states.  And I agree, once they've secured their hold on Syria, Lebanon is the next most failed state/target.  I agree Jordan would fight hard, but would be in dire straights without significant support.  Iran will be mostly content to hold them off from the Shia-dominated areas of Iraq.

But still, Turkey, Jordan, and SA have to be crazy to be so seemingly content to let ISIS grow up to their borders knowing that they are all on the hit list.

I think that Yemen must be on their list as well, then they can work on the Suadis from two directions. They already have affiliates there.

EDIT: Damn, they hit Ramadi with 30 car bombs, ten as powerful as the one used in Oklahoma City
https://twitter.com/HannahAllam/status/601065335366750208

Yemen, another failed state, and ISIS must be there. Al Qaeda has been strong there which is why the US was working so closely with the former Yemen government, an ally. It was tough to lose Yemen. Iran is in Yemen and I'm sure they'll strengthen their forces there, especially if ISIS becomes strong there. But I think that will be a muti-sided mess with ISIS, AQ, Houthis fighting each other or likely ISIS and AQ vs Houthis/Iran. Saudis may get more involved on the ground, and Egypt was talking about sending troops also. Plus the remnants of Yemeni forces if they exist. Quite a mix and what a mess. The US must have seen the Houthis coming, as a large movement like that doesn't just happen in a few days or weeks.

[Tonitrus]

Turkey could roll over both Syria and Iraq at the same time. It could have probably done so even when both Saddam and Assad were firmly in power. They just don't want to exert the effort to do so.

They'd have the same mess the US did after rolling over Iraq and Afghanistan.

And ISIS won't have that kind of problem with resistance, because they are the only ones who will exercise the ultimate solution in cowing a population, which is brutally killing everyone who opposes them.  The Kurds will fight, and so will the Shia (when it comes to their actual lands), but so far, it seems like the Sunni populations/tribes either mostly play along or lay as low as possible (both of which ultimately mean their doom anyway).  Though some brave tribes have fought, those that do just get steamrolled by the ISIS onslaught.

I don't doubt much of the Lebanese will fight, as will the Jordanians and Saudis...but by the time ISIS rolls up to each of them, it will be too late.

Though I think there is a 10-ish% chance we'd intervene with troops to save Lebanon, it probably goes up to 90% for Jordan/Saudi Arabia.

[jimmy olsen]

ISIS now controls half of Syria

https://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/islamic-state-controls-more-50-percent-syrian-territory-063727682.html

BEIRUT, May 21 (Reuters) - Islamic State controls more than half of Syria's territory after its westwards advance into the central city of Palmyra, a group monitoring the war said on Thursday.

The militant group, which already controlled wide tracts of land in Syria's north and east, captured the ancient city late on Wednesday, the first time it has seized a large population centre directly from Syrian pro-government forces.

The areas it holds are mostly sparsely inhabited. Syria's main cities, including the capital Damascus, are located on its western flank along the border with Lebanon and the coastline and have been the priority for the Syrian military. (Reporting by Sylvia Westall; editing by John Stonestreet)

[Warspite]

ISIS controls half of Syria? ISIS controls a lot of sand.

I don't see ISIS rolling through all of Syria; it takes and holds areas that are predominantly Arab Sunni, which is because it is a movement of the disenfranchised Arab Sunni. ISIS won't be rolled back until there is a credible vision for Iraq and Syria that offers Sunni Arabs a reason to ditch these Islamist thugs. This will need separate processes in Syria and Iraq. (I would also add that if you want to unravel the Syrian regime's support, you also need to craft a vision of Syria's future that appeals to the many minorities of the country that emphatically do not want to live under Sunni Arab domination.)

That doesn't make ISIS less of a threat, but there needs to be some context to the alarmism.

[KRonn]

ISIS barbarians will sack Palmyra of its ancient artifacts which is a travesty of history. That city has a lot of structures from antiquity and all are going to be lost.