The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Megathread

[KRonn]

Heh, the Israeli and Palestinian conflict seems to now be more of a minor side show given the civil wars, unrest and other wars breaking out all over. Egypt and probably others have been also getting involved in Libya against ISIS Sunnis. But Egypt will also be fighting Shias in Yemen. I need a baseball scorecard to keep track of all of this...

[Razgovory]

"How do we go about influencing the conflict so the eventual winners are more likely to be non-radicals?"

Let it drag out for as long as possible.  The longer it runs, the more radicals on each side will die, and one would hope people on all sides will grow weary of violence.

Sadly, it doesn't seem to work that way. Radicalism tends to beget more of the same.

You need to think long-term. Short-term, you're right.

Long Term the Saudis have announced that the building their own nuclear weapons is in the cards.

[jimmy olsen]

Long Term the Saudis have announced that the building their own nuclear weapons is in the cards.

Ugh, just as intollerable as the Iranians doing so. Maybe even worse.

[PJL]

Indeed, removing the incentive for Saudi Arabia to get nukes is probably the best reason to stop Iran getting them.

[jimmy olsen]

Their militaries all suck, so not sure how much this will help?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/26/us-mideast-crisis-arabs-idUSKBN0MM2GB20150326

Arab foreign ministers agree on unified military force
CAIRO

(Reuters) - Arab foreign ministers meeting in Egypt agreed a draft resolution on Thursday to form a unified military force, in a move aimed at countering growing regional security threats.

The agreement came after warplanes from Saudi Arabia and Arab allies struck Shi'ite Muslim rebels in Yemen on Thursday, in an effort to check Iranian influence in their backyard without direct military backing from Washington.

"The Arab ... ministers agreed on adopting an important principle, which is forming the unified Arab military force," Arab League Secretary General Nabil Elaraby told reporters after the meeting in the resort of Sharm El-Sheikh.

"The task of the force will be rapid military intervention to deal with security threats to Arab nations," Elaraby added.

The draft resolution will be referred to the Arab leaders during their March 28-29 summit in Egypt.

Egyptian TV reported earlier that the ministers asked Elaraby to coordinate with Arab armies' chiefs of staff within one month to begin forming the unified force.

The Arab league chief described the resolution as "historic".

The idea was first floated by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. The 22 Arab states often have different views on how to tackle crises and calls for a unified force in the past have failed to produce tangible results.

The dangers facing the region have perhaps never seemed starker. Conflicts are intensifying in Yemen and Libya and the civil war in Syria is entering its fifth year.

Islamic State militants have taken over swathes of Iraq and Syria and spawned splinter groups across the Arab world. The United States and other major powers are seeking a final nuclear deal with Iran, in a process that worries many Sunni Arab leaders wary of Shi'ite Iran's growing influence in the region.

(Reporting by Mahmoud Mourad and Ali Abdelaty; Editing by Michael Georgy and Andrew Roche)

[Valmy]

I love how they "simplified" the graph.

[Ed Anger]

The shitites are now not helping on the Tikrit operation, because the U.S. is now involved.

What a shithole.

[KRonn]

The shitites are now not helping on the Tikrit operation, because the U.S. is now involved.

What a shithole.

Idiots. They were stalled in Tikrit! Facing relatively few ISIS troops and with huge numerical and firepower advantage, they were being stopped and it was tough going, heavy losses! I can't wait to see how this group fares against a few thousand entrenched ISIS troops in Mosul.

The Iranian/Shia General in Iraq fighting against ISIS alongside Iraqi troops has said if the US doesn't do a deal with Iran on nukes then his militia and troops will start attacking the US troops in Iraq. A bit of hubris, given how much help they appear to need given the tough fights they're already facing. I think one thing that hasn't gotten much attention is how much Iran was helping the Iraqi insurgents to kill American and coalition troops. Supplying with IEDs and other ammo plus any troops being sent in.

Before the US left al Maliki had attacked and somewhat neutralized the Badr brigade, or one of the leading Shia insurgent units backed by Iran. Now with the US gone Iraq is almost in the back pocket of Iran. No idea how strong that relationship will become but with Iran on the ground helping root out ISIS I'd think Iran will be in the driver's seat in Iraq.

[grumbler]

Before the US left al Maliki had attacked and somewhat neutralized the Badr brigade, or one of the leading Shia insurgent units backed by Iran. Now with the US gone Iraq is almost in the back pocket of Iran. No idea how strong that relationship will become but with Iran on the ground helping root out ISIS I'd think Iran will be in the driver's seat in Iraq.

I think Iraq being in Iran's pocket was an almost inevitable outcome of the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, as his opposition was almost uniformly in exile in Iran, getting the training and equipment to eventually challenge the Sunni minority in Iraq.  The US was a relatively late addition to the cast of characters in Iraqi politics; Iran was there all along.

[KRonn]

Yeah, the Shias are the majority in Iraq and the Sunnis supported Saddam, so it's no surprise to see Iran in there now that the Shias are in control and often working to keep the Sunnis down. It seemed though that the Iraqis weren't as  interested in such strong Iranian influence, but the Iraqi leadership's actions prove otherwise, especially their actions against the Sunnis further exacerbating divisions in the country and making a bit of an open door for ISIS to walk right in.

[Razgovory]

I love how they "simplified" the graph.

I'm not sure I trust the Institute of Internet Diagrams.

[Valmy]

I'm not sure I trust the Institute of Internet Diagrams.

To do what? Make jokes? I have not seen their other stuff but that was funny.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

The shitites are now not helping on the Tikrit operation, because the U.S. is now involved.

The US demanded that as a condition of getting involved.

[Ed Anger]

The shitites are now not helping on the Tikrit operation, because the U.S. is now involved.

The US demanded that as a condition of getting involved.

The BBC scroll at the bottom of the screen lied to me.

[grumbler]

The shitites are now not helping on the Tikrit operation, because the U.S. is now involved.

The US demanded that as a condition of getting involved.

How did the US expect to succeed without any help from the Shia?  Aragorn's ghost army?