The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Megathread

[jimmy olsen]

A good bout of American isolationism will do both the US and the world some good.

This.

We'll see.  Once the US goes isolationist it takes a massive disaster to break us out of it.

Given Obama's ludicrously bad management of the war I'd say we're already there. He clearly just wants to run out the clock and let his successor deal with it. Unless the Kurds are threatened he's content to got through the motions. And it's going to totally destroy his legacy when Syria is completely overrun by Jihadists within the next few months. Damscus and Homs are going to fall to ISIS, while Aleppo could fall to them or al-Nusra. The middle east is likely to dissolve into regional sectarian war before he leaves office.

[Ed Anger]

Thanks Obama

[jimmy olsen]

ISIS kills 43 Shia in Pakistan.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2015/05/13/266488/islamic-state-affiliate-kills.html

[jimmy olsen]

Heavy fighting as ISIS fights for another provincial capital

http://aranews.net/2015/05/isis-storms-syrias-hasakah-with-mortar-fire-dozens-killed/

http://aranews.net/2015/06/isis-fights-back-in-syrias-hasakah/

[jimmy olsen]

And they might be on the verge of capturing Aleppo on top of that!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/islamic-state-militants-open-major-new-offensive-in-aleppo/2015/06/01/9b834f64-085c-11e5-951e-8e15090d64ae_story.html

While nobody was looking, the Islamic State launched a new, deadly offensive

By Liz Sly June 1 at 5:44 PM    


GAZIANTEP, Turkey — Syrian rebels appealed for U.S. airstrikes to counter a new offensive by the Islamic State in the northern province of Aleppo that could reshape the battlefield in Syria.

The surprise assault, launched over the weekend, opened a new front in the multi-pronged war being waged by the extremist group across Iraq and Syria, and it underscored the Islamic State's capacity to catch its enemies off guard.

The push — which came on the heels of the miltants' capture of the Syrian city of Palmyra and the western Iraqi city of Ramadi late last month — took them within reach of the strategically vital town of Azaz on the Turkish border.

The offensive reinforces the impression that the Islamic State is regaining momentum despite more than eight months of U.S. led-airstrikes.

Rebel groups rushed reinforcements to the farmland north of the contested city of Aleppo after the Islamic State seized five villages. As rebel fighters in jeeps and pickup trucks hurtled toward the front lines, civilians fled in the opposite direction, seeking refuge closer to the Turkish border.

Videos posted on social media accounts allied with the Islamic State showed the group in control of checkpoints in the small town of Sawran. One image showed four decapitated heads tossed into the back of a truck.

Azaz controls access to one of the most important border crossings between Syria and Turkey. If the town were to fall, the supply lines to Aleppo city would be cut and the entire rebel presence in the province would be jeopardized, rebel commanders said.

"Automatically, the Islamic State would gain control of Aleppo city," said Abu Mohammed, the nom de guerre of a leader of the rebel group Thuwar al-Sham, based in the Turkish town of Gaziantep. "The situation is dire."

If the Islamic State seized the area, it would also extend its reach along the Turkish border, amplifying its capacity to secure supplies and smuggle in foreign fighters at a time when Turkey's government has imposed severe restrictions on travelers along its 580-mile border with Syria.

The specter of a fight for Azaz drew comparisons with the battle last fall for the border town of Kobane, 80 miles away, where Kurdish fighters aided by U.S. warplanes withstood a fierce assault by the Islamic State.

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But U.S. intervention on behalf of rebels in the Aleppo area would probably be complicated by the presence of al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra alongside more moderate rebel groups.


The rebels have asked the international coalition to carry out strikes and have presented coordinates of Islamic State positions, "but so far we have heard nothing," Abu Mohammed said.

The battle brought into focus the complexity of the war in Syria, where the Islamic State, the government of President Bashar al-Assad, the opposition and Syrian Kurds are fighting .

The opposition had been on the brink of launching an offensive to push weakened government troops out of the loyalist-controlled portion of Aleppo city and were unprepared for the attack on their northern flank.

The Islamic State offensive coincided with a wave of barrel bombings by the government over the weekend that reportedly killed more than 100 people, threw rebel ranks into disarray and drew allegations of coordination between Assad's regime and the extremist militants.

Col. Mohammed al-Ahmed, a spokesman for the main rebel coalition in Aleppo, Jabhat al-Shamiya, alleged a "bargain" was struck between the government and the Islamic State to sabotage rebel plans to seize Aleppo.

"The coordination . . . is clear proof that the two partners, the Islamic State and Assad, are on one side against the mujahideen revolutionaries in Syria," he said.

In a series of tweets, the U.S. Embassy in Syria echoed the allegation. "Reports indicate that the regime is making air strikes in support of ISIL's advance on Aleppo," the embassy's Twitter account said. The Islamic State is also known as ISIL or ISIS.

The Syrian government has repeatedly denied charges that it coordinates with the Islamic State.

A rebel fighter in the Azaz area who goes by the name Jarrah speculated that the Islamic State had sought to expand its presence into rebel-held areas of Syria to evade U.S. air attacks. "They are suffering from airstrikes in eastern Syria, so they want to come here," he said, speaking by telephone.

Rebel leaders said Monday that they had halted the Islamic State advance and were fighting to wrest back control of Sawran, the easternmost village captured.

The Islamic State, however, has been aided by a fresh influx of weapons captured from the fleeing Syrian army at Palmyra, and the rebels have been unable to muster enough reinforcements to match the militants' numbers, Jarrah said. "It's going to be a big battle," he predicted.

The Islamic State had controlled Azaz and was present throughout Aleppo until a revolt by rebels early in 2014 forced it to withdraw to the eastern part of the province. Since then, the front line between the groups had been mostly quiet until the weekend offensive.

[jimmy olsen]

Heavy fighting as ISIS fights for another provincial capital

http://aranews.net/2015/05/isis-storms-syrias-hasakah-with-mortar-fire-dozens-killed/

http://aranews.net/2015/06/isis-fights-back-in-syrias-hasakah/

ISIS has "liberated" a prison five kilometers from Al-Hasakah. That's more reinforcements for them no doubt and another provincial capital under ISIS guns.

http://syriadirect.org/news/syria-direct-news-update-6-1-15/

[PJL]

People overstate how bad ISIS are. They're not much worse than some of the other rebel fighters and their allies in Saudi Arabia, Qatar etc. Or the Syrian government and their allies in Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Iran. It wouldn't be a disaster if they took over the region.

[Valmy]

They're not much worse than some of the other rebel fighters and their allies in Saudi Arabia, Qatar etc. Or the Syrian government and their allies in Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Iran.

Talk about damning with feint praise.

I would counter that a distinctly Sunni Arab Muslim state would lead to even more severe genocide and annihilation of minority groups. I mean presuming one gives a damn about them.

It wouldn't be a disaster if they took over the region.

Well yeah it wouldn't be a disaster for me. But I am not a Shia or Alawite or Kurd or something.

[PJL]

It's all very well getting angry about the situation, but nobody is proposing a solution. Airstrikes on more contentious areas (populated areas for example) risks getting bad publicity if something bad happens. Western boots on the ground risks us getting into a quagmire, especially if there is not a political solution. And no-one in the area wants one.

So we should continue to keep out until everyone is tired of the fighting. The only areas I think we should be really bolstering are Kurdistan and Jordan. Everything else can burn, as it's essentially a fight between extremists.

[Valmy]

It's all very well getting angry about the situation, but nobody is proposing a solution.

There is no solution. Eventually the Muslims will have to Muslim themselves out like we did back in the 17th century. But to state it won't be so bad is to ignore the past 100 years of Post-Ottoman history. Oh it will be a disaster. Whole populations will cease to exist and the body count will be staggering. Ancient living cultures will be destroyed forever and the remains of our cultural heritage from past civilizations will as well. We will all be poorer for it all. Of course I talk like this is a future thing, this is happening now.

But there is no stopping the crazy train now.

[KRonn]

People overstate how bad ISIS are. They're not much worse than some of the other rebel fighters and their allies in Saudi Arabia, Qatar etc. Or the Syrian government and their allies in Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Iran. It wouldn't be a disaster if they took over the region.

I wonder if there could be some merit to having a Sunni state? It would be ISIS though and an extremist, brutal regime which would seem to be worse than what exists now in any Muslim nation, some of which are pretty bad though. There are already many Sunni nations, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Probably others could be considered in that mix too like Jordan, Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria plus the Gulf Arab states. So ISIS is looking to create something new and they make the Taliban look like human rights activists. They're taking on failed states - Libya, parts of Iraq and Syria and perhaps all of Syria. They're just starting on Afghanistan and making some attacks in Pakistan, also allying with Boko Haram in Nigeria. So they're casting a wide net and getting what they can. What is their end game? Can they be allowed to create what they want? I think those are some of the pertinent questions to consider, and to be especially considered by the Arab nations as they're most under threat and I doubt that threat will subside even after an ISIS nation is formed.

[Tamas]

We should let Erdogan go in and reestablish Turkish rule over the region. I am serious. He looks like megalomanical enough to actually want it, and I think many locals would prefer the rule of a muslim civilised country's army over the utter chaos that's happening there.

[Caliga]

I could go for that, but only if they attack with a Janissary corps led by a mehter band.

[DGuller]

Given Obama's ludicrously bad management of the war I'd say we're already there. He clearly just wants to run out the clock and let his successor deal with it. Unless the Kurds are threatened he's content to got through the motions. And it's going to totally destroy his legacy when Syria is completely overrun by Jihadists within the next few months. Damscus and Homs are going to fall to ISIS, while Aleppo could fall to them or al-Nusra. The middle east is likely to dissolve into regional sectarian war before he leaves office.

What exactly would you have him do?  There is no military solution to this crisis, and there is not political solution at this moment as there are no credible politicians.  The fire has to burn itself out on its own. 

In the mean time, American should do some soul searching as to how exactly they managed to convince themselves to commit the worst foreign policy blunder in its country's history.  Blaming GWB is like blaming Putin:  easy and justified, but far from complete.

[DGuller]

We should let Erdogan go in and reestablish Turkish rule over the region. I am serious. He looks like megalomanical enough to actually want it, and I think many locals would prefer the rule of a muslim civilised country's army over the utter chaos that's happening there.

I read an article somewhere reputable that imperialism is not as bad as its current rap suggests.  It blames the current instability on the breakup of the Ottoman empire, and the resulting absence of hegemon in the area to police the bad boys.