The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Megathread

[alfred russel]

Sheilbh, I just don't see it all happening.

The Baghdad map shows increasing segregation in a multicultural city, but that doesn't translate into national division.

The second map is probably more interesting. Each of the areas has problems. The formation of an independent kurdish state will be fiercely opposed by many and supported by few. The formation of the Sunni state will require the simultaneous collapse of Syria and Iraq and that seems quite farfetched looks a bit like what ISIS has going right now, and from my point of view that will fatally undermine it. For so many reasons ISIS is not going to be allowed to create a long term state, nor will a government allied to ISIS. The Shiite state might be the easiest to form, but it will also encounter obvious resistance and given the majority status of the Shia in Iraq it seems counterproductive for them to want to secede from Iraq.

Many of the minorities (such as Christians) have no where to go in the region.

What made the post WWII puzzle so easy to solve is the USSR took control of Eastern Europe and Stalin dictated what would happen. The powers of today will not play the same role, and will oppose things if they start to move in that direction.

[CountDeMoney]

The Pentagon says US forces have carried out 90 raids/sorties/attacks* on ISIS in the last couple of weeks. 

More bombing please.



Haven't heard if this is 90 seperate missions, sorties or instances of actual munitions dropped.

57 of them have been in support of Iraqi forces during the recent Mosul dam campaign.

And they're probably individual sorties, that's how the Pentagon keeps score.

[Warspite]

Like an electoral map, unless an ethnic map gives some indication of what kind of majority is in each area - 51% is very different to 90% - they're not very useful. You have have an awful lot of division in a flat area of colour.

[mongers]

It's reported several hundred Iranian soldiers, together with artillery have crossed the border and are fighting alongside Kurdish Peshmerga against IS in Dahlya province.

[Ed Anger]

Oooooo, there are reports of the US passing intel on ISIS to Assad via the Germans.

[Norgy]

I haven't been an advocate for the massive use of violence in most cases, but the IS deserves to be bombed, invaded and rounded up.

They basically represent everything that's wrong with the world. Religious extremism, laws based on outdated religious tenets, heavy weapons in the hands of religious extremists, light weapons in the hands of religious extremists and being just a bunch of cunts.

[Admiral Yi]

It is a great tragedy of the world that generally speaking only dickheads are good fighters.

[CountDeMoney]

Oooooo, there are reports of the US passing intel on ISIS to Assad via the Germans.

Lulz.  Gotta love Flavor-of-the-Month foreign policy.  Picking The Least-Shitty Guys This Month...Since 1947!

[garbon]

I haven't been an advocate for the massive use of violence in most cases, but the IS deserves to be bombed, invaded and rounded up.

They basically represent everything that's wrong with the world. Religious extremism, laws based on outdated religious tenets, heavy weapons in the hands of religious extremists, light weapons in the hands of religious extremists and being just a bunch of cunts.

[mongers]

I haven't been an advocate for the massive use of violence in most cases, but the IS deserves to be bombed, invaded and rounded up.

They basically represent everything that's wrong with the world. Religious extremism, laws based on outdated religious tenets, heavy weapons in the hands of religious extremists, light weapons in the hands of religious extremists and being just a bunch of cunts.

We've on the same page; shall we form an International brigade and go fight alongside the Kurds?

[Eddie Teach]

Keep us updated when you do that.

[celedhring]

It is a great tragedy of the world that generally speaking only dickheads are good fighters.

Dickheads generally love to fight and kill, non-dickheads don't.

[jimmy olsen]

Assad's fucked. Taqba airbase has fallen and ISIS now has complete control over eastern Syria.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28918792

Fighters from Islamic State (IS) have taken control of a key Syrian government airbase, activists say.

The Tabqa airbase was the last remaining stronghold of Bashar al-Assad's government in Raqqa province.

Syrian state TV confirmed that its forces had "evacuated" the airbase but said they had now regrouped and were conducting airstrikes.

More than 191,000 people have now been killed in the three-year-old Syrian conflict up to April, the UN says.

IS, formerly known as Isis, has expanded its reach into large parts of eastern Syria and northern Iraq in recent months.

The US has launched limited airstrikes against the group in Iraq but has not targeted them in Syria.
'Heavy fighting'

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based activist group with opposition ties, said clashes around the airbase were ongoing but added that the base was under IS control.

Syrian state television confirmed that government troops had lost control of the base.

"After heavy fighting by the forces defending the Tabqa airbase, our forces implemented a regrouping operation after the evacuation of the airbase," it said.

The base lies around 45km (30 miles) outside Raqqa city, the main powerbase of IS, and is believed to hold dozens of warplanes, helicopters, tanks and artillery.

Analysts say the fall of the base is a significant blow for the Syrian government's ability to project air power into the north of the country.

IS fighters have steadily taken over several government military bases in Raqqa province in recent weeks, including the Division 17 base just outside Raqqa town.

In a separate incident, Syrian government forces killed 32 rebels in an ambush in Deraa in southern Syria, activists said.

State media confirmed the attack, and said tens of fighters had been killed.

Opposition groups in Syria have been fighting President Bashar al-Assad since 2011.

[mongers]

Assad's fucked. Taqba airbase has fallen and ISIS now has complete control over eastern Syria.

.....

I wouldn't say that, his Alawite sect has no place to go and have been shown no mercy by ISIS, but they have lots of weapons and will probably fight to the death.

Not being intentionally ironic here, but their position is a lot like being the Arab Jews.

[CountDeMoney]

Assad's fucked.

Said that last year.  And the year before that.