News from Iran? Good? Bad? Who knows?

[Queequeg]

Even if the Iranian government did fall it's replacement wouldn't necessarily be friendly to the West.  A state's self interests are dictated by it's geography so one state replacing another on the same territory will tend to gravitate towards the same self-interests as it's predecessor.

Iran is a perpetual enemy of most of the Arab world, Russia and the Sunni Muslim East.  We are natural allies.   

[Razgovory]

To bad that most of the arab world and the sunni east is technically our allies.

[Queequeg]

To bad that most of the arab world and the sunni east is technically our allies.

Yeah, how much longer is that going to be though?  Pakistan is falling apart, along with the Arab World.  Iran, Turkey, Malaysia and Indonesia are the only majority Muslim countries with futures. 

A sane Iran would be an ally of Shi'ite dominated Iraq, and also a likely ally of any acceptable Afghan govt., which will inevitably be dominated by Dari/Persian speakers, with a big dollop of Shi'ite Hazara and Tajik influence. 

[Fate]

How long has Pakistan been falling apart? 

[Crazy_Ivan80]

How long has Pakistan been falling apart? 

since 1946 or so :p

[Razgovory]

To bad that most of the arab world and the sunni east is technically our allies.

Yeah, how much longer is that going to be though?  Pakistan is falling apart, along with the Arab World.  Iran, Turkey, Malaysia and Indonesia are the only majority Muslim countries with futures.

Who knows?  Iran wishes to be a major regional power and to do this would need to destabalize it's neighbors.  Since these major powers happen to be important strategic partners (and major military obligations at the moment) our interests are in conflict.  It's likely that a new government in Iran would eventually return to same foreign policy as it's predecessors.    An example of these cross purposes is best illustrated in Iraq.  American soldiers are fighting and dying to keep Iraq from flying apart.  It is in Iran's interest for that country to fly apart.

[Neil]

To bad that most of the arab world and the sunni east is technically our allies.

Iran had a chance to be an American ally.  They rejected it in favour of installing an extremist dictatorship.

[Queequeg]

Who knows?  Iran wishes to be a major regional power and to do this would need to destabalize it's neighbors.  Since these major powers happen to be important strategic partners (and major military obligations at the moment) our interests are in conflict.  It's likely that a new government in Iran would eventually return to same foreign policy as it's predecessors.    An example of these cross purposes is best illustrated in Iraq.  American soldiers are fighting and dying to keep Iraq from flying apart.  It is in Iran's interest for that country to fly apart.

Iran is a major regional power.  If anything, what has caused instability in the region is he relative weakness and ideology of the present Iranian regime, while previously the Shah was basically the only really meaningful power between Jerusalem and Islamabad, as Pakistan was always too busy trying to justify its insane existence. 

Iraq is not a meaningful country in the grand scheme of things.  There is no dominant ethnicity or religion, and even among the minorities there are tribal identities.  The agricultural system is fucked, as well as the entire economy, as well as the environment.  It is also many times smaller and less well educated than Iran.  Saddam thought he had a shot of taking a few chunks out of the Arabic-speaking parts of the country, and even though Iran was in utter turmoil and ran by an insane regime, all he got was millions of corpses and the total collapse of his authority in the north, as well as a deteriorating situation in the south.

I think Iraq's future is staying as a  client state of Iran and the US.  I don't think Iran has much to worry about; neither the Shiite Arabs nor the Iranian-language speaking Kurds are as insanely Persophobe as the formerly dominant Sunnis.

[grumbler]

If geography drives diplomacy, then Iran's current estrangement from the West is the anomaly.

I think it foolish to rate highly the impact of geography on modern national politics, though.  Technology has changed much that people in the 19th century took (or those with 19th Century mindsets take) for granted.

[Razgovory]

If geography drives diplomacy, then Iran's current estrangement from the West is the anomaly.

I think it foolish to rate highly the impact of geography on modern national politics, though.  Technology has changed much that people in the 19th century took (or those with 19th Century mindsets take) for granted.

Why is the estrangement from the West such an anomaly?

I think that it would be naive to discount a states geographic situation in an analysis of it's national policy. Especially in area of the world where wars over territory are not uncommon.  Such 19th century thinking dominated the last century and I suspect it still has a great deal of currency today.

[Queequeg]

If geography drives diplomacy, then Iran's current estrangement from the West is the anomaly.

I think it foolish to rate highly the impact of geography on modern national politics, though.  Technology has changed much that people in the 19th century took (or those with 19th Century mindsets take) for granted.

Technology has changed much in the developed world, is changing the developing world, and....is doing not a whole lot for the ruling cliques of the various retard autocracies of the world, Ahmadinatard's being among those. 

[The Brain]

The only anomaly is that we didn't parking lot Iran yet.

[KRonn]

Well, this is big surprise.... not. 

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,581359,00.html

Iran Accuses West of Instigating Violent Protests

TEHRAN, Iran —  Iran on Tuesday accused Western countries of fomenting deadly anti-government protests in the capital this week and said it was summoning Britain's ambassador to file a complaint.

The comments by Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mahmanparast added to growing tensions between Iran and the West, which is threatening to impose tough new sanctions over Iran's suspect nuclear program and has criticized the violent crackdown on anti-government protesters in Tehran.

Iran has said as many as eight people were killed in Sunday's clashes in Tehran. There was no serious violence reported Tuesday, but opposition Web sites said several activists were arrested, including a prominent journalist and the sister of Nobel peace laureate Shirin Ebadi.

Speaking to reporters, Mehmanparast said the deadly clashes in Tehran were the work of a tiny minority, and he accused outside countries, including the U.S. and Britain, of "miscalculating" by siding with the protesters.

"Some Western countries are supporting this sort of activities. This is intervention in our internal affairs. We strongly condemn it," he said. "In this regard, the British ambassador will be summoned today."

He gave no further details, and there was no immediate reaction from Britain.

Britain, France, Germany and the U.S. have all criticized Iran's violent response to the protests, the bloodiest confrontations between the government and reformist activists since June's disputed presidential election.

On Monday, President Barack Obama praised "the courage and the conviction of the Iranian people" while condemning Iran's Islamic government for attacking demonstrators with "the iron fist of brutality."

Traveling with Obama in Hawaii, U.S. National Security Council chief of staff Denis McDonough also said the White House is reaching out to international partners to build support for a new round of sanctions against Iran. He said the U.S. was exploring both unilateral or U.N. sanctions.

The sanctions are to punish Iran for its refusal to halt uranium enrichment and accept a U.S.-backed plan to curb its nuclear program. The West suspects Iran is trying to build a nuclear bomb — a charge Tehran denies.

Iran's parliament speaker, Ali Larijani, said the U.S. support for the protesters would only harm their cause. "The praise ... will damage your reputation and clarifies the motives of this anti-religious group," he told state radio.

The exact death toll from Sunday's violence is still not clear. The government had said eight people were killed, but on Tuesday, Tehran's chief prosecutor said he was investigating only seven deaths.

One reason for the confusion is that the government has taken the bodies of five slain protesters, including the nephew of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, in what appears to be an attempt to prevent activists from using their funerals as a platform for more demonstrations. The government says it is conducting autopsies.

In Sunday's protests, groups of emboldened demonstrators chanted slogans against ruling clerical establishment, casting aside a traditional taboo in the country.

In outbursts of fury rarely seen in past street confrontations, they burned squad cars and motorcycles belonging to security forces who had opened fire on the crowds, according to witness accounts, opposition Web sites and amateur videos posted on the Web.

State-run television reported eight deaths and 60 people injured. But independent confirmation of the casualties has been virtually impossible because of state restrictions on media coverage. Iranian authorities have said 300 people were arrested in the protests, but did not specify where they were detained.

Since then, authorities have restricted Internet access and SMS services, and arreested at least 10 prominent opposition activists, including a former foreign minister and a top aide to Mousavi.

The opposition Web site Greenroad reported seven more arrests overnight Tuesday: Among them were Mashallah Shamsolvaezin, a journalist who frequently criticizes the government, and university professor Noushin Ebadi, the sister of the Nobel winner. Others included the son of a prominent ayatollah, a reporter for the opposition ILNA news agency, and several activists.

Shirin Ebadi, who won the Nobel peace prize for her human-rights efforts in Iran, told the The Associated Press in a phone interview from London that she called her sister on Monday, and that the sister was being punished because of the conversation.

"She was warned not to contact me," she said. " "She is detained for the sake of me. She was neither politically active nor had a role in any rally."

A Dubai television company said Monday that it had not heard from its correspondent in Iran since he disappeared near his Tehran house on Sunday.

Dubai Media Inc. said it was in touch with Iranian officials about the fate of Redha al-Basha, a 27-year-old Syrian. Dubai Media is the government-owned parent of a handful of television stations in the emirate.

Mahmanparast, the Foreign Ministry spokesman, said he was unaware of any arrests of foreigners. But he said it was possible that foreign journalists who did not have proper credentials had been detained.

[Grallon]

The protests must be worse than reported if they start accusing outsiders of stirring the pot.   




G.

[Sheilbh]

Uncle Napoleon strikes again.  Apparently the Iranians are saying that the British are behind this and have given a serious dressing-down to our Ambassador.  Just like the Shah was convinced that the British were behind the Islamic Revolution.

I remember seeing an interview with a former Ambassador to Tehran who said that that posting was unique because it's the only place in the world where the government - and many people - firmly believe that the UK's actually running everything, so he got treated as if he were representing somewhere significantly more powerful