NCAA Football, 2014-2015

[alfred russel]

As unlikely as it seems, I think Arizona has a really good shot of getting in if it beats Oregon.

If we assume FSU and Alabama are in (which may be a big assumption), that leaves 2 spots.

As a conference champ, Arizona should be above everyone in the Pac 12 and SEC (not named Alabama).

That leaves 2 spots with the following teams in contention:
TCU
Ohio State
Baylor
Michigan State

I think we can scratch out Michigan State. Would the committee put in 2 big 12 teams with soft OOC schedules?

It could come down to whether Ohio State can beat Wisconsin, which is not a sure thing.

[dps]

That would be great until it wasn't.

And "it wasn't" might come as soon as this year.  Right now, depending on how some games in progress, a few remaining regular season games, and the conference championship games go, if the favorites win out, that would make the playoff teams Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, and the Big 12 champion (probably TCU, but I'm not 100% sure what the Big 12's tie breaking procedures are now).  Throw in a few upsets, and it could change to Georgia Tech, Missouri, Arizona, and Kansas State.  Anybody really think that's a better playoff field?

[Berkut]

That would be great until it wasn't.

And "it wasn't" might come as soon as this year.  Right now, depending on how some games in progress, a few remaining regular season games, and the conference championship games go, if the favorites win out, that would make the playoff teams Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, and the Big 12 champion (probably TCU, but I'm not 100% sure what the Big 12's tie breaking procedures are now).  Throw in a few upsets, and it could change to Georgia Tech, Missouri, Arizona, and Kansas State.  Anybody really think that's a better playoff field?

I think the second one is vastly better than the first.

[MadImmortalMan]

It could come down to whether Ohio State can beat Wisconsin, which is not a sure thing.

Doesn't matter. They won't take OSU with the QB hurt.

[Ed Anger]

I think Mark May ejaculated when Barrett went down.

[alfred russel]

It could come down to whether Ohio State can beat Wisconsin, which is not a sure thing.

Doesn't matter. They won't take OSU with the QB hurt.

Generally I wouldn't think they would hold an injury against a team. But so much of Ohio State's argument is the loss to VT was the first game of the season when they were breaking in a bunch of new guys and they were a much inferior team. Now they are back to breaking in a new QB.

[sbr]

As unlikely as it seems, I think Arizona has a really good shot of getting in if it beats Oregon.

If we assume FSU and Alabama are in (which may be a big assumption), that leaves 2 spots.

As a conference champ, Arizona should be above everyone in the Pac 12 and SEC (not named Alabama).

That leaves 2 spots with the following teams in contention:
TCU
Ohio State
Baylor
Michigan State

I think we can scratch out Michigan State. Would the committee put in 2 big 12 teams with soft OOC schedules?

It could come down to whether Ohio State can beat Wisconsin, which is not a sure thing.

Assuming TCU beats Iowa State the Big-12 Champ is a given, either Baylor or TCU, I don't think the other gets in but their OOC schedule is no worse than Arizona's is.

The injury to the Ohio State QB was HUGE, though I still think they should go over Arizona assuming Ohio State beats Wisconsin.

If Alabama ends up losing today they will probably just cancel this year's playoff so it won't really matter.

[sbr]

It could come down to whether Ohio State can beat Wisconsin, which is not a sure thing.

Doesn't matter. They won't take OSU with the QB hurt.

Generally I wouldn't think they would hold an injury against a team. But so much of Ohio State's argument is the loss to VT was the first game of the season when they were breaking in a bunch of new guys and they were a much inferior team. Now they are back to breaking in a new QB.

And if they beat Wisconsin with their 3rd string QB they have to go.

[sbr]

Question for Berkut (or anyone else I guess):

In the Oregon-OSU game 3 Oregon defenders were slow to get up on the same play, 2 of them right next to each other.  After the trainers came out and started tending to the players the referee (white hat) came in and started moving the standing Oregon players out of the area of the hurt teammates and trainers.  Why?  To potentially keep them from getting near coaches (no idea if any were on the field) during an unofficial time out, or something else?

[CountDeMoney]

Auburn-Alabama is a pinball machine.

[Berkut]

Question for Berkut (or anyone else I guess):

In the Oregon-OSU game 3 Oregon defenders were slow to get up on the same play, 2 of them right next to each other.  After the trainers came out and started tending to the players the referee (white hat) came in and started moving the standing Oregon players out of the area of the hurt teammates and trainers.  Why?  To potentially keep them from getting near coaches (no idea if any were on the field) during an unofficial time out, or something else?

Not really any particular reason, other than you generally want, during any time out, to get everyone away from the people tending to injured players, and over to either their huddle, or their sideline, in order to make sure the opposing team players don't get near each other and have something stupid start up.

So in general it is more of a "cleaning up" the timeout than anything specific. I can't say I've ever been remotely concerned about a coach potentially talking to his players in a situation like that.

[Berkut]

As unlikely as it seems, I think Arizona has a really good shot of getting in if it beats Oregon.

If we assume FSU and Alabama are in (which may be a big assumption), that leaves 2 spots.

As a conference champ, Arizona should be above everyone in the Pac 12 and SEC (not named Alabama).

That leaves 2 spots with the following teams in contention:
TCU
Ohio State
Baylor
Michigan State

I think we can scratch out Michigan State. Would the committee put in 2 big 12 teams with soft OOC schedules?

It could come down to whether Ohio State can beat Wisconsin, which is not a sure thing.

Assuming TCU beats Iowa State the Big-12 Champ is a given, either Baylor or TCU, I don't think the other gets in but their OOC schedule is no worse than Arizona's is.

But their conference schedule is no wear near as good.

The injury to the Ohio State QB was HUGE, though I still think they should go over Arizona assuming Ohio State beats Wisconsin.

No way. It may very well turn out that way, because the system is grossly flawed, but there is no way a 1-loss B1G champion this year deserves a spot over the Pac-12 champion. The Big-10 is terrible this year.

But that is why a 4 team playoff is so bad - there are going to be more than 4 teams that will be able to make perfectly reasonable arguments of the form of "We did what was asked of us....we should be in". OSU cannot help that the Big-10 is terrible this year, why should they be punished for their conference being bad?

On the other hand, it is vastly MORE unreasonable to punish a conference for being very good compared to others, and if you left a Pac-12 champion who would have played, at that point, TEN conference games against the top to bottom best (or at worst second best) conference in the country, that would be a travesty. Like I said, I think the structure is going to make that likely...if Arizona beats Oregon. Which, of course, is a rather long shot anyway, so probably it won't even matter.

If OSU played Arizona's schedule, and Arizona played OSUs, what would their records be?

OSU could not get through 9 Pac-12 games with only one loss, IMO.

[sbr]

I agree with most everything you said, BUT win-loss record is and will always be the most important factor in this (for P5 teams, Marshall and Boise State will always be irrelevant).

As I have said before Strength of Schedule will never be anything more than a somewhat interesting minor tie-breaker.  Strength of Conference is more important than SoS, but not enough to move a 2 loss team over a 1 loss one.

[CountDeMoney]

Should've been an 8 team format.

[sbr]

Meh