Front National Rising

[Sheilbh]

http://www.france24.com/en/20140323-historic-gains-frances-far-right-local-elections-national-front/
Will be updated through the night, but the Front National are doing better than ever before in French local elections. They're winning outright in some places.

There's a run-off vote next weekend and the Socialists are in effect already calling for them and the centre-right to unite and beat the FN, which they surely will.

Results like this will, I think, help expand their credibility and energise the base for the European elections - which will probably see the FN and Ukip do very well in two of the three largest EU countries.

Also seems an alarming parallel for Ukip. A lot of the FN's supporters are former Socialists, as Ukip attracts a lot of working class former Labour voters. After a few years of disappointing Hollande/Miliband-ist government one of the man challenges to the centre-left could be from the far-right

Edit: From what I can tell this sounds a lot like Ukip at the last local elections. They want from almost nothing to a substantial minority, but it gives them local councillors who are, in the UK at least, the organisational base for parties and help a lot in Westminster and European election. They went from a Euro-election protest vote to something a little more organised and closer to a credible national party.

[Duque de Bragança]

The center and right-wing parties are doing good though. Paris is again special case with the extremely severe boboisation making champagne left strongholds virtually impregnable. Still NKM for the UMP did better than expected but will still need a miracle next Sunday. I had never seen an election where the media were so biased against NKM and so pro Hidalgo (PS) was the officially anointed heir of Delanoé (current PS mayor). Every small mistep of NKM was news (smoking with some proletarian Poles in the street) while mentioning that Hidalgo managed to have a full retirement by the age of 51 after 20 years of work was virtually ignored.

I am very disappointed personally by the low participation of EU voters in Paris. 4.5% of the Parisian Population and only one out of 6 who could vote, votes, at best. Seems only my family votes in the local voting booth.  Only 11 registered out of 1400 voters, and only three voted. Two being family, the other one my mom probably knows.

The socialists may call for a Front républicain against the FN but the right-wing is not interested anymore in proving the FN is right by showing the establishment unites against them cf. the
UMPS slogan, a portmanteau of UMP and PS, ie the conservatives AND societalistes "socialists".

As for next week, seems things are settled for my arrondissement since the UMP won with more than 50% of the vote. Boboisation is limited to the eastern part and there is still a a real Zone Urbaine Sensible there too scary for bobos to venture in, yet. Of those who live there, lots are not EU citizens and cannot vote anyways.

PS : Front National has again a low turnout in Paris again with 5-6%, comparable to the Greens, but then the French working class has been massively evicted by the bobos.

[alfred russel]

Before we get Fireblade too excited, they only got 7% of the national vote in an election with record low turnout.

[Ed Anger]

France needs a First Consul.

[Sheilbh]

Before we get Fireblade too excited, they only got 7% of the national vote in an election with record low turnout.

True and where they've done well they'll inevitably lose in the second round.

However that is from 0.9% and they've won some of their targets outright (ie. over 50%), in other areas like Avignon and Perpignan they've come first and in many others such as Marseille they've pushed the Socialists into third place.

As I say for me it's striking for two reasons. One is the parallel with Ukip which have also developed a local government base which is key in a party moving from just protest votes to a real organisational base. I think this particularly matters with the EU elections coming up. The second is that researchers in the UK have said that many of these populist right parties in Europe are actually drawing their support most from the traditional vote on the left. The FN are doing well now in old Socialist areas.

It'll be interesting to see the Euro-elections. The FN and Ukip have lead some polls at around 20-30%. The European Parliament could have two of her largest delegations won by declared Eurosceptics. Add in the polling of the VVD in the Netherlands and even the M5S in Italy (still in the low 20s) and I think there's a real problem that Europe needs to address. What's really striking is how these parties are, for the most part, rising in non-crisis countries so I'm not sure it's about the economic situation rather than something a bit deeper and more worrying.

The socialists may call for a Front républicain against the FN but the right-wing is not interested anymore in proving the FN is right buy showing the establishment unites against them cf. the
UMPS slogan, a portmanteau of UMP and PS, ie the conservatives or societalistes "socialists"

....That's a very brave policy, no?

[PDH]

France needs a First Consul.

And a marshal wearing spectacles.

[alfred russel]

True and where they've done well they'll inevitably lose in the second round.

However that is from 0.9% and they've won some of their targets outright (ie. over 50%), in other areas like Avignon and Perpignan they've come first and in many others such as Marseille they've pushed the Socialists into third place.

As I say for me it's striking for two reasons. One is the parallel with Ukip which have also developed a local government base which is key in a party moving from just protest votes to a real organisational base. I think this particularly matters with the EU elections coming up. The second is that researchers in the UK have said that many of these populist right parties in Europe are actually drawing their support most from the traditional vote on the left. The FN are doing well now in old Socialist areas.

It'll be interesting to see the Euro-elections. The FN and Ukip have lead some polls at around 20-30%. The European Parliament could have two of her largest delegations won by declared Eurosceptics. Add in the polling of the VVD in the Netherlands and even the M5S in Italy (still in the low 20s) and I think there's a real problem that Europe needs to address. What's really striking is how these parties are, for the most part, rising in non-crisis countries so I'm not sure it's about the economic situation rather than something a bit deeper and more worrying.

European elections get limited turnout, and the voters that do turn out are often highly motivated (ie disproportionately extreme and anti EU) or willing to "send messages"/troll with their votes ("this election doesn't matter anyway, I am vaguely against immigration and regulations on bananas, I'll vote for this quasi nazi who I would never vote for in a national election to register my general dissatisfaction").

If the European Parliament matters, then that is a problem. I'm not sure that it is a problem.

[The Larch]

I'm waiting for the day in which Duque admits that a bobo stole his girlfriend.

[Sheilbh]

If the European Parliament matters, then that is a problem. I'm not sure that it is a problem.

Well the European Parliament does matter rather more than most voters realise (abstract voting systems like our incomprehensible D'Hondt PR doesn't help matters). These elections will choose which bloc the Commission President will come from and the Parliament has increasing influence over the formation of the Commission and is now co-legislator in most areas with the Council.

It's a shame that to seek democratic legitimacy more and more power has been given to the Parliament (especially under Lisbon), but I think what's still lacking is relevance and a feeling of connection - hence low turnout.

Also I think it's a problem for Europe itself if the only democratic part of the EU is perhaps dooming itself to irrelevance.

[The Larch]

Why is it a shame that the Parliament is getting more powers and to which party do you refer to?

[Monoriu]

I am not sure what can be done about it.  Even if they are elected French president, there is nothing others can do about it. 

[Duque de Bragança]

I'm waiting for the day in which Duque admits that a bobo stole his girlfriend.

Even worse, they stole MY city, mon Paris!   

[Beenherebefore]

Front National rising in France, the Progress Party in government in Norway. End. Nigh.

[Duque de Bragança]

True and where they've done well they'll inevitably lose in the second round.

However that is from 0.9% and they've won some of their targets outright (ie. over 50%), in other areas like Avignon and Perpignan they've come first and in many others such as Marseille they've pushed the Socialists into third place.

The PS in Marseille has been weakened by severe corruption, even by Marseille standards, and there were a few leftish lists on the first round whereas the right was united b

As I say for me it's striking for two reasons. One is the parallel with Ukip which have also developed a local government base which is key in a party moving from just protest votes to a real organisational base. I think this particularly matters with the EU elections coming up. The second is that researchers in the UK have said that many of these populist right parties in Europe are actually drawing their support most from the traditional vote on the left. The FN are doing well now in old Socialist areas.

It'll be interesting to see the Euro-elections. The FN and Ukip have lead some polls at around 20-30%. The European Parliament could have two of her largest delegations won by declared Eurosceptics. Add in the polling of the VVD in the Netherlands and even the M5S in Italy (still in the low 20s) and I think there's a real problem that Europe needs to address. What's really striking is how these parties are, for the most part, rising in non-crisis countries so I'm not sure it's about the economic situation rather than something a bit deeper and more worrying.

Actually, the PS was only the main choice for the left vote for a short while, the communist party was it for far longer but then the transfer of votes between the PC and FN is pretty well documented. Georges Marchais, former Secretary General of the PCF till the '90s, was far from bobo orthodoxy on matters such as immigration (it has to be stopped) or even laïcité (no to accommodements raisonnables).

The socialists may call for a Front républicain against the FN but the right-wing is not interested anymore in proving the FN is right by showing the establishment unites against them cf. the
UMPS slogan, a portmanteau of UMP and PS, ie the conservatives or societalistes "socialists"

....That's a very brave policy, no?

Well, there is still the taboo of allying with the FN, so no worries, whereas the PS can ally with the the leftist Greens of course and Front de Gauche i.e Mélencon and his communists, leftist and whatever buddies.
Earlier on, Fillon former PM, said about PS vs FN run-offs to vote fnior the less sectarian which was seen as pro-FN by the left, so the "ni-ni" (no to PS no to FN) is pretty brave but not suicidely brave.

[Ideologue]

I don't know what a bobo is.  Is that a Euroracist slur?