The new Eurosceptics

[Agelastus]

So I take I have until 2017 here then? A lot of you Brits seem to have serious doubts about the merits of not being closed off from Europe via tariff zones and the like. If the UKIP can gain such popularity on that issue alone, who knows how that referendum will go.

Tamas, why are you so convinced that it automatically goes "UK votes out, I get kicked out"?

Do you think Hungarians are suddenly going to become "persona non grata"?

Are you uncertain that you would meet Visa requirements (assuming they are imposed, which is actually a fairly big if despite the rhetoric)?

Do you expect lynch mobs on the streets or something?

Immigration's such a big issue because the Labour government totally screwed the pooch in estimating how many people would come in - why do you assume that we're going to slam the doors completely shut in the face of immigrants if we leave the EU? Were our doors slammed shut before Free Movement of Labour was implemented?

Anyway, ignoring the above, a UK vote of "out" wouldn't shift our status within the EU immediately - any withdrawal would probably take months at the least; eligibility for naturalisation (if that's the way you want to go) is only five years.

[Tamas]

Well who knows what kind of requirements you will have. Plus, what is the point of leaving if you just leave everything as it was? Not to mention that if the EU has any kind of survival instinct, they will impose tariffs and restrictions against the UK. Not out of spite, but to discourage other members from leaving.

By the way one would think that the administrative nightmare it would entail is reason enough to vote against leaving the EU. 

BTW, honest question: what is the UK economy doing that is going to just fly even better without the EU? I understand some of the EU idiocy may hurt the financial sector, but I can't imagine it hurting more than the ensuing uncertainty after a breakup with the Union.

[Josquius]

Most anti-EU folk aren't anti-EU for logical economic reasons.

[The Larch]

Was the expenses scandal that big of a deal? Seems like a rather small thing to turn against the political class, it's so small scale after all. Did you expect them to be saints before that? Aren't there more outrageous things around?

[Sheilbh]

IDK man. Venezuela and Iran channelled the oil wealth to the poor in form of various subsidies. Much good it has done.

And Thatcher channelled hers into tax cuts for the rich.

Norway set up a sovereign wealth fund to help pay for pensions which now owns almost 2% of all European stocks.

I think in the case of new oil discoveries countries are advised to follow the Norwegian model, not use it to pay for domestic politics.

So I take I have until 2017 here then? A lot of you Brits seem to have serious doubts about the merits of not being closed off from Europe via tariff zones and the like. If the UKIP can gain such popularity on that issue alone, who knows how that referendum will go.

I think the most likely result would be EU members who are already here would be granted indefinite leave to stay and we'd still offer visa free short-term stays etc.

The Eurosceptic argument is that it's not about being closed off from Europe but closed off from the rest of the world - as they put it being in the EU with the Eurozone is like being shackled to a corpse. Some of them want to abolish all British tariffs if we were to leave. Others, at the very least, expect us to try and get free trade deals with China and Brazil and the US.

BTW, honest question: what is the UK economy doing that is going to just fly even better without the EU? I understand some of the EU idiocy may hurt the financial sector, but I can't imagine it hurting more than the ensuing uncertainty after a breakup with the Union.

As I say the Eurosceptic view is that we'd be able to negotiate some sort of trade deal with the EU (they might try and punish us but I think it's unlikely), but also spend the time getting trade deals with the rest of the world and new deals on FDI which are broadly EU level since Lisbon. I think their view is that there's much potential in dealing more with emerging economies - like India and China - or with other developed economies the EU doesn't have a free trade deal with - like Australia or the US.

They're very liberal so they think abolishing lots of European legislation - like the working time directive, parts of health and safety laws, the law requiring 20% of energy be renewable by 2020 etc - would help boost the economy too. And they're mostly on the right so they'd probably also argue we should cut various business taxes.

[Sheilbh]

Was the expenses scandal that big of a deal? Seems like a rather small thing to turn against the political class, it's so small scale after all. Did you expect them to be saints before that? Aren't there more outrageous things around?

It wasn't small from a British perspective. But I think so. I mean a cabinet minister had to resign over it last month and David Cameron's generally not had that many resignations.

But the general mood politically seems pretty febrile to me. I think there's just a weird general collapse of trust in all sorts of institutions/the establishment. The banks had the crash, Parliament had expenses, the press had phone hacking, the BBC had Jimmy Savile. There seems to be a lot of anger out there, especially outside London.

[mongers]

IDK man. Venezuela and Iran channelled the oil wealth to the poor in form of various subsidies. Much good it has done.

And Thatcher channelled hers into tax cuts for the rich.

Norway set up a sovereign wealth fund to help pay for pensions which now owns almost 2% of all European stocks.

I think in the case of new oil discoveries countries are advised to follow the Norwegian model, not use it to pay for domestic politics.

So I take I have until 2017 here then? A lot of you Brits seem to have serious doubts about the merits of not being closed off from Europe via tariff zones and the like. If the UKIP can gain such popularity on that issue alone, who knows how that referendum will go.

I think the most likely result would be EU members who are already here would be granted indefinite leave to stay and we'd still offer visa free short-term stays etc.

The Eurosceptic argument is that it's not about being closed off from Europe but closed off from the rest of the world - as they put it being in the EU with the Eurozone is like being shackled to a corpse. Some of them want to abolish all British tariffs if we were to leave. Others, at the very least, expect us to try and get free trade deals with China and Brazil and the US.

BTW, honest question: what is the UK economy doing that is going to just fly even better without the EU? I understand some of the EU idiocy may hurt the financial sector, but I can't imagine it hurting more than the ensuing uncertainty after a breakup with the Union.

As I say the Eurosceptic view is that we'd be able to negotiate some sort of trade deal with the EU (they might try and punish us but I think it's unlikely), but also spend the time getting trade deals with the rest of the world and new deals on FDI which are broadly EU level since Lisbon. I think their view is that there's much potential in dealing more with emerging economies - like India and China - or with other developed economies the EU doesn't have a free trade deal with - like Australia or the US.

They're very liberal so they think abolishing lots of European legislation - like the working time directive, parts of health and safety laws, the law requiring 20% of energy be renewable by 2020 etc - would help boost the economy too. And they're mostly on the right so they'd probably also argue we should cut various business taxes.

Little Englanders who want to make us like Big Corporate America ?

[The Larch]

Was the expenses scandal that big of a deal? Seems like a rather small thing to turn against the political class, it's so small scale after all. Did you expect them to be saints before that? Aren't there more outrageous things around?

It wasn't small from a British perspective. But I think so. I mean a cabinet minister had to resign over it last month and David Cameron's generally not had that many resignations.

But the general mood politically seems pretty febrile to me. I think there's just a weird general collapse of trust in all sorts of institutions/the establishment. The banks had the crash, Parliament had expenses, the press had phone hacking, the BBC had Jimmy Savile. There seems to be a lot of anger out there, especially outside London.

I'd have guessed that big finance would have been more hurt by their rate fixing scandals. They must have paid billions in fines at this point. Compared to that a MP claiming a few hundred or thousand quid for a duck house is peanuts.

[Tamas]

How is punitive action against the UK from the EU in case of the UK leaving is unlikely?

No punishment would mean the UK getting all the good stuff the EU offers (free trade and free roam of skilled workforce) without having to sacrifice anything. Who would not leave the EU then but the poorest who still receive grants? (and then they wouldn't as nobody would stay but them).

I think Sheilbh you underestimate the Europe-rattling consequences of the Brits pulling a Cartman.

[Sheilbh]

I'd have guessed that big finance would have been more hurt by their rate fixing scandals. They must have paid billions in fines at this point. Compared to that a MP claiming a few hundred or thousand quid for a duck house is peanuts.

Rate fixing's complicated and doesn't have a direct effect on people's lives. The actual crash and, I think, mis-selling of PPI to normal consumers had a bigger effect on how finance is perceived. Rate fixing just became another example of what they're all up to.

Also the duck house is just a nice detail. Most of the stuff that annoys people was with MPs shifting the designation of their 'main home' from London to their constituency to pay off their mortgage, cover their tax bill and renovate the place. This country's obsessed with property so it was almost designed to grab attention and cause outrage

[The Larch]

I'd have guessed that big finance would have been more hurt by their rate fixing scandals. They must have paid billions in fines at this point. Compared to that a MP claiming a few hundred or thousand quid for a duck house is peanuts.

Rate fixing's complicated and doesn't have a direct effect on people's lives. The actual crash and, I think, mis-selling of PPI to normal consumers had a bigger effect on how finance is perceived. Rate fixing just became another example of what they're all up to.

Also the duck house is just a nice detail. Most of the stuff that annoys people was with MPs shifting the designation of their 'main home' from London to their constituency to pay off their mortgage, cover their tax bill and renovate the place. This country's obsessed with property so it was almost designed to grab attention and cause outrage

So you're saying Brits are a bunch of petty small minded provincial Daily Mail reading cheapstakes? 

[Sheilbh]

How is punitive action against the UK from the EU in case of the UK leaving is unlikely?

Because Europe's rational. The UK's the third largest export market for Germany and France, it's even more important for Ireland and the Low Countries. They might choose to have punitive action but I think it's unlikely, especially if the UK's pragmatic in negotiations as we leave and because there's still relations we have I don't think we'd suddenly stop our military deals with the French for example.

No punishment would mean the UK getting all the good stuff the EU offers (free trade and free roam of skilled workforce) without having to sacrifice anything. Who would not leave the EU then but the poorest who still receive grants? (and then they wouldn't as nobody would stay but them).

Well I think the EU means a lot more to most European countries than to the UK. The sacrifices countries are willing to endure to stay in the Euro are, to my eyes, incredible and ridiculous. But I think that's partly because it's tied up in their identity, there's an ideological belief in Europe that just doesn't exist in the UK.

But you're right there'd be compromises. I don't think the UK would be in the single market, or have a deal on agriculture, or have (or want) free movement of labour.

But my view is it's in neither sides' interest to have the UK in the same position as Russia in terms of economic relations so both sides would be reasonably pragmatic and reasonable in negotiations to avoid it.

[Tamas]

IDK... After such a precedence of carefully painless separation from EU burdens while maintaining most of the achieved benefits would look pretty sweet for countries like Spain or Italy, would it not?

[Sheilbh]

So you're saying Brits are a bunch of petty small minded provincial Daily Mail reading cheapstakes? 

Maybe

I think it's entirely right to be outraged by the whole expenses scandal even if it wasn't much money. I think in total 6 MPs and Lords have been jailed for false accounting and theft over their expenses.

We're a country with almost Scandinavian levels of corruption, but according to polls Italian levels of suspicion and belief in corruption. Which isn't sustainable and makes for explosive overreaction when actual corruption is uncovered

[The Larch]

So you're saying Brits are a bunch of petty small minded provincial Daily Mail reading cheapstakes? 

Maybe

I think it's entirely right to be outraged by the whole expenses scandal even if it wasn't much money. I think in total 6 MPs and Lords have been jailed for false accounting and theft over their expenses.

We're a country with almost Scandinavian levels of corruption, but according to polls Italian levels of suspicion and belief in corruption. Which isn't sustainable and makes for explosive overreaction when actual corruption is uncovered

Ok, I need to add paranoid to the list of adjectives for Brits.