The new Eurosceptics

[Sheilbh]

IDK... After such a precedence of carefully painless separation from EU burdens while maintaining most of the achieved benefits would look pretty sweet for countries like Spain or Italy, would it not?

There would be pain though. I think we'd almost certainly have a recession and would lose trade in Europe. But I don't think the EU or the UK government would be going out of their way to make it any worse than it had to be. The question is whether the long-term justifies that.

I don't think most countries would want out because they believe in Europe in a way that Britain never has - it's always been about an economic cost/benefit for us rather than a project we're committed to. Maybe for that reason we shouldn't have been let in. I think at worst Scandinavia and maybe even the Dutch would have a rethink. Allowing Britain to renegotiate, a la Cameron, would perhaps be a worse precedent (but then I think that's partly because Cameron's framed it in a very stupid way).

Personally I think Spain (expected to return to the 2007 peak by 2029) and Italy (2020) would both be far better off if they left the Euro. I think Europe as a whole needs a euroscepticism of the left because the social damage that's being done in the name of Europe is awful.

[Sheilbh]

Ok, I need to add paranoid to the list of adjectives for Brits. 

But the sad thing is it turned out to be true. MPs were on the take. Journos were scum. The bankers were spivs with long words. Whenever there's a controversy the Met version will normally last a week at most before being discredited. The BBC and Savile story is just awful in all ways - and, allegedly, Rolf Harris too!

[The Larch]

Personally I think Spain (expected to return to the 2007 peak by 2029) and Italy (2020) would both be far better off if they left the Euro. I think Europe as a whole needs a euroscepticism of the left because the social damage that's being done in the name of Europe is awful.

There's no way in hell we're leaving the Euro, the moment we do that is the moment everybody's savings get wiped out by rampant inflation.

That said, there is euroskepticism on the left, more of it the more extreme it gets, it's not as if everybody is on board over here after the last few years. The "We want a Europe for the people, not for the markets" has been parroted more and more. Then again, I think that lefties are more into working to reform the EU than outright abandoning it. We direct our knee jerk anger at Merkel, not at the EU. 

[Sheilbh]

That said, there is euroskepticism on the left, more of it the more extreme it gets, it's not as if everybody is on board over here after the last few years. The "We want a Europe for the people, not for the markets" has been parroted more and more. Then again, I think that lefties are more into working to reform the EU than outright abandoning it. We direct our knee jerk anger at Merkel, not at the EU. 

Fair

There's euroscepticism on the far left - in the UK the Greens are very anti-EU and Tony Benn fumed about it. But I'm surprised more hasn't happened given the consequences from Euro-policy - cutting the welfare state, emigrating youth etc. I was thinking of this piece, which I totally agreed with:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/07/left-progressive-euroscepticism-eu-ills

I still find it somewhat strange that the economic 'winners' of the EU and the Eurozone are the ones more likely to have anti-EU parties. I thought this from Yougovs European Parliament poll was interesting:

[The Larch]

They don't want brown pipple inmigrating there looking for better economic opportunities.

[Gups]

[I don't think most countries would want out because they believe in Europe in a way that Britain never has - it's always been about an economic cost/benefit for us rather than a project we're committed to. Maybe for that reason we shouldn't have been let in.

In 1971, was it really the project it turned out to be? I mean, there were only six member countries when we applied - the real driving force behind modern Euroscepticisim/phobia is freedom to migrate combined with a huge expansion of the EU

[Tamas]

Are there any statistics hinting at migration becoming a burden for UK, or it is just a fear of too much third worlders getting in?

[Gups]

It seems intuitively obvious that migration (for all its benefits) exacerbates housing shortages and represses wage growth. It's interesting that the narrative on the anti-immigrant side has moved away from benefit scroungers/bogus asylum seekers from the 3rd world to competition for jobs and houses from Eastern Europeans.

[Josquius]

I can perhaps see the argument against immigration as far as low grade jobs are concerned (in a depressed economy anyway). But housing? That just seems utterly wrong to me. The only way the housing shortage could be related to immigration is welathy foreign land holders.

Also the EU is actually very little to do with immigration in the UK, the net migration numbers from the EU are a fraction of the non-EU numbers. I guess the EU just makes for an easier target.

[Zanza]

I predict the UK will still be an EU member in 2023 - celebrating half a century of EU membership. 

[Gups]

I can perhaps see the argument against immigration as far as low grade jobs are concerned (in a depressed economy anyway). But housing? That just seems utterly wrong to me. The only way the housing shortage could be related to immigration is welathy foreign land holders.

Isn't it obvious that fewer people and the same number of houses means a less severe housing shortage?

Also the EU is actually very little to do with immigration in the UK, the net migration numbers from the EU are a fraction of the non-EU numbers. I guess the EU just makes for an easier target.

That's just not true. The majority of migrants are from the EU (298K v 244K). And while the numbers of  non-EU numbers are declining those of  EU migrants are rising fast Here's the last ONS summary


•There was an estimated net flow of 212,000 long-term migrants to the UK in the year ending September 2013, a statistically significant increase from 154,000 in the previous year.
•532,000 people immigrated to the UK in the year ending September 2013, not a statistically significant difference from 497,000 the previous year. 60,000 more EU citizens and 25,000 fewer non-EU citizens immigrated to the UK than the previous year.
•320,000 emigrants left the UK in the year ending September 2013. This is not a statistically significant difference from the 343,000 in the previous year. 12,000 fewer British citizens, 6,000 fewer EU citizens and 5,000 fewer non-EU citizens emigrated.
•209,000 EU citizens immigrated in the year ending September 2013, a statistically significant increase from 149,000 the previous year. 40,000 more EU citizens arrived for work than the previous year, another statistically significant increase.
•65,000 EU15 citizens arrived to work in the year ending September 2013 - a statistically significant increase of 23,000 compared to the previous year.
•National Insurance number registrations to adult overseas nationals entering the UK increased by 19% to 617,000 in the year ending December 2013. Highest increases were for citizens of Poland, Spain, Italy and Portugal.
•There was a statistically significant increase in immigration of EU2 (Romanian and Bulgarian) citizens to 24,000 in the year ending September 2013 from 9,000 in the previous year. An estimated 70% arrived for work and 30% for study.
•Immigration of non-EU citizens saw a statistically significant decrease to 244,000 in the year ending September 2013 from 269,000 the previous year. This is due to fewer New Commonwealth citizens migrating to the UK for formal study.
•In 2013 there were increases in grants of work visas (+9,750, including + 4,777 short term skilled workers) and of study visas (+9,024, with increased applications for the university sector). There was also a fall in family visas granted (-7,202).
•There was an 8% increase in asylum applications in 2013 (23,507) compared with 2012 (21,843), although well below the 2002 level (84,132). The increase in 2013 was particularly driven by rises from Syria (+681), Eritrea (+649) and Albania (+507).

[Josquius]

Isn't it obvious that fewer people and the same number of houses means a less severe housing shortage?

Not to a significant degree no.  For people who have money houses can always be built and bought.
Far more pressing an issue is the government selling off all of its stock and leaving it entirely up to the private sector to build more (whilst keeping in place planning restrictions that stop many flats being made).

That's just not true. The majority of migrants are from the EU (298K v 244K). And while the numbers of  non-EU numbers are declining those of  EU migrants are rising fast Here's the last ONS summary

According to the last ONS figures for year end September 2013 the EU had +131,000. Non-EU +141,000.
And those numbers are the closest they come. In previous stastistical years the gap is much bigger.

[Norgy]

So I take I have until 2017 here then? A lot of you Brits seem to have serious doubts about the merits of not being closed off from Europe via tariff zones and the like. If the UKIP can gain such popularity on that issue alone, who knows how that referendum will go.

The UKIP looks towards Norway and Iceland, don't they? Norway isn't an EU member, but a signatory to the Schengen agreement.
Shows how much those cocktards know.

[Zanza]

Norway and Iceland also both have freedom of movement for workers, so that can't be the model for UKIP. More like what Switzerland now needs to negotiate with the EU following their recent referendum on abolishing freedom of movement for workers.

[Razgovory]

I'm kind of surprised that anyone would find it strange that Tamas is edgy about the rise of the "throw out the immigrants" party.