10 interpretations of who started WW1

[Valmy]

The truth is that pretty much any country would have destroyed Serbia for the assassination.  Just as the US invaded Afghanistan for 9/11.

If invading Afghanistan would have put the US in existential danger we would have done it?  When Kennedy was assassinated our government, far wiser than Austria-Hungary, did everything they could to make sure nobody linked the assassin to the Soviet Union.  We were mad about Kennedy of course but even if we discovered the KGB were behind it we were not going to do anything because our government is not suicidal.

[garbon]

even if we discovered the KGB were behind it we were not going to do anything because our government is not suicidal.

I'm not sure I agree with that. After all, doing nothing would then just underline that the Soviets had a pretty free hand if we were willing to let it slide when they kill our commander in chief.

[Valmy]

even if we discovered the KGB were behind it we were not going to do anything because our government is not suicidal.

I'm not sure I agree with that. After all, doing nothing would then just underline that the Soviets had a pretty free hand if we were willing to let it slide when they kill our commander in chief.

I meant publicly.  Nothing that would put us in a position of having to go to war with the USSR over it.  Any response would have been covert.

[garbon]

even if we discovered the KGB were behind it we were not going to do anything because our government is not suicidal.

I'm not sure I agree with that. After all, doing nothing would then just underline that the Soviets had a pretty free hand if we were willing to let it slide when they kill our commander in chief.

I meant publicly.  Nothing that would put us in a position of having to go to war with the USSR over it.  Any response would have been covert.

Well I think that's also slightly different as we're also talking a scenario where we're taking on our MAD partner.

I actually from the outset was thinking perhaps what we would we do "now"* if NK assassinated our VP and some high level members of congress - with China potentially backing them.

"now" because currently it is Biden.

[Sheilbh]

If they hurt one dubious hair allegedly on Joe Biden's you should nuke the bastards.

[Barrister]

even if we discovered the KGB were behind it we were not going to do anything because our government is not suicidal.

I'm not sure I agree with that. After all, doing nothing would then just underline that the Soviets had a pretty free hand if we were willing to let it slide when they kill our commander in chief.

I meant publicly.  Nothing that would put us in a position of having to go to war with the USSR over it.  Any response would have been covert.

Well I think that's also slightly different as we're also talking a scenario where we're taking on our MAD partner.

I actually from the outset was thinking perhaps what we would we do "now"* if NK assassinated our VP and some high level members of congress - with China potentially backing them.

"now" because currently it is Biden.

I think the US probably makes a retaliatory strike against North Korea but does no more.  China allows it to happen because it knows the US has to respond.

[Valmy]

If they hurt one dubious hair allegedly on Joe Biden's you should nuke the bastards.

Biden >> Franz Ferdinand

[garbon]

If they hurt one dubious hair allegedly on Joe Biden's you should nuke the bastards.

Biden >> Franz Ferdinand

He might be a national treasure, but in terms of utility?

[alfred russel]

I think the US probably makes a retaliatory strike against North Korea but does no more.  China allows it to happen because it knows the US has to respond.

It is really hard to equate killing Franz Ferdinand to US assassinations. On the one hand, he was relatively powerless and waiting for the head of state to die, just as Joe Biden is.

But on the other hand, he had the potential to be the head of state and influence policy for decades, and in a way completely different than an alternate candidate. Biden and Obama have similar politics. The death of Obama would likely minimally impact government policy. The Civil Rights Act didn't end when Kennedy was assassinated, for example. But the policies that Franz Ferdinand was expected to try to implement were significantly different than what would otherwise be in place, and that in fact seems to be why he was killed. It is like killing Kennedy and getting Goldwater as a replacement.

[garbon]

I think the US probably makes a retaliatory strike against North Korea but does no more.  China allows it to happen because it knows the US has to respond.

It is really hard to equate killing Franz Ferdinand to US assassinations. On the one hand, he was relatively powerless and waiting for the head of state to die, just as Joe Biden is.

But on the other hand, he had the potential to be the head of state and influence policy for decades, and in a way completely different than an alternate candidate. Biden and Obama have similar politics. The death of Obama would likely minimally impact government policy. The Civil Rights Act didn't end when Kennedy was assassinated, for example. But the policies that Franz Ferdinand was expected to try to implement were significantly different than what would otherwise be in place, and that in fact seems to be why he was killed. It is like killing Kennedy and getting Goldwater as a replacement.

What about death of Obama + Biden? We'd then have someone on the opposite side of political spectrum.

[Barrister]

I think the US probably makes a retaliatory strike against North Korea but does no more.  China allows it to happen because it knows the US has to respond.

It is really hard to equate killing Franz Ferdinand to US assassinations. On the one hand, he was relatively powerless and waiting for the head of state to die, just as Joe Biden is.

But on the other hand, he had the potential to be the head of state and influence policy for decades, and in a way completely different than an alternate candidate. Biden and Obama have similar politics. The death of Obama would likely minimally impact government policy. The Civil Rights Act didn't end when Kennedy was assassinated, for example. But the policies that Franz Ferdinand was expected to try to implement were significantly different than what would otherwise be in place, and that in fact seems to be why he was killed. It is like killing Kennedy and getting Goldwater as a replacement.

What about death of Obama + Biden? We'd then have someone on the opposite side of political spectrum.

My answer is unchanged.  I think President Boehner feels he has to respond but is unwilling to go too far or else risk all out war with China.  I think a major bombing raid over various DPRK cites linked to the Kim family and the military will be hit, and then matters are over.  I also think China and ROK are given a quiet heads up to limit the risks of escalation, and to allow ROK to prepare for potential counter-attack.

[crazy canuck]

Why is it so important for some people to defend Serbia's actions? Why do they think it was OK for Serbia to send death squads to assassinate VIPs in a different country, but A-H being less than perfection in the way it responded is worse than Hitler? I'm guessing childhood trauma and/or deficient skull shape.

I don't think Austria-Hungary was evil so much as incompetent and divorced from reality.

That is easy to say with Hindsight.  But if you had said that at the time it is you who would have been accused of being divorced from reality.  A-H had been able to successfully bully Serbia when it annexed Bosnia in 1908.  Russia backed down and Serbia was forced to accept the annexation.  After the second Balken War Serbia was isolated from its one time allies in the Bulkan League and it may have seemed likely that Russia would back down once again.

Add to that the fact that Serbia had become the biggest threat to A-H.  You certainly would have been viewed as incompetent if you had suggested at that time not to take advantage of an opportunity to eliminate the threat.

[Malthus]

I think the US probably makes a retaliatory strike against North Korea but does no more.  China allows it to happen because it knows the US has to respond.

It is really hard to equate killing Franz Ferdinand to US assassinations. On the one hand, he was relatively powerless and waiting for the head of state to die, just as Joe Biden is.

But on the other hand, he had the potential to be the head of state and influence policy for decades, and in a way completely different than an alternate candidate. Biden and Obama have similar politics. The death of Obama would likely minimally impact government policy. The Civil Rights Act didn't end when Kennedy was assassinated, for example. But the policies that Franz Ferdinand was expected to try to implement were significantly different than what would otherwise be in place, and that in fact seems to be why he was killed. It is like killing Kennedy and getting Goldwater as a replacement.

The ironic thing was that by all accounts Franz Ferdinand, while unloved in his own country, was the one significant leader is A-H who was serious about not indulging in a ruinous war.

[Razgovory]

The truth is that pretty much any country would have destroyed Serbia for the assassination.  Just as the US invaded Afghanistan for 9/11.

If invading Afghanistan would have put the US in existential danger we would have done it?  When Kennedy was assassinated our government, far wiser than Austria-Hungary, did everything they could to make sure nobody linked the assassin to the Soviet Union.  We were mad about Kennedy of course but even if we discovered the KGB were behind it we were not going to do anything because our government is not suicidal.

Slightly different dynamic, as the Soviet Union was a superpower and Serbia was not.  As it stood, the US went to war with Afghanistan despite the fact that it's client had a nuclear arsenal.  For the Kennedy analogy, if it was found that Kennedy was assassinated by Cubans working under the high ranking Cuban officials the US probably would have invaded Cuba and the Soviets would have backed down.

[Razgovory]

I think the US probably makes a retaliatory strike against North Korea but does no more.  China allows it to happen because it knows the US has to respond.

It is really hard to equate killing Franz Ferdinand to US assassinations. On the one hand, he was relatively powerless and waiting for the head of state to die, just as Joe Biden is.

But on the other hand, he had the potential to be the head of state and influence policy for decades, and in a way completely different than an alternate candidate. Biden and Obama have similar politics. The death of Obama would likely minimally impact government policy. The Civil Rights Act didn't end when Kennedy was assassinated, for example. But the policies that Franz Ferdinand was expected to try to implement were significantly different than what would otherwise be in place, and that in fact seems to be why he was killed. It is like killing Kennedy and getting Goldwater as a replacement.

The ironic thing was that by all accounts Franz Ferdinand, while unloved in his own country, was the one significant leader is A-H who was serious about not indulging in a ruinous war.

I think the polices he favored were the reason he was assassinated.