NFL Week 17 - The Final Countdown

[sbr]

It is 4-12 in his first year.  A non stupid team usually will want to find out if the coach can show enough improvement in their next year, because the first year will involve a lot of changes.

I don't know the answer to this question, but does history prove this out? Do second year coaches post better records than first year coaches?

Small sample size but Bill Belichick went 5-11 in his first year with New England.

EDIT: And Pete Carroll made a nice jump in the third year at both of his NFL jobs.

[Neil]

Shanahan is out.  That's interesting.  Redskins rebuilding project take 12.

Yeah, but that went without saying.

[Valmy]

Shanahan is out.  That's interesting.  Redskins rebuilding project take 12.

That is the least surprising change that will happen today.

Shanahan is probably the last big name Snyder is going to be able to bribe into taking that job.

[sbr]

The point is, good team rarely make a coaching change.  So a first year head coach is almost always in a bad spot and it seems silly to smoke a guy 356 days after he takes a shitty job, especially after all 3 QBs on the roster got hurt at some point during the season and you trade a decent player* for a draft pick.

Coaches matter more in football than any other of the big 4 pro sports, but not as much as talent.

*Maybe Trent Richardson was their best player, but if so the problems run deeper than we thought.

[sbr]

The Vikings turfed Leslie Frazier.

And the Buccaneers fired Schiano and their GM.

[Neil]

Shanahan is out.  That's interesting.  Redskins rebuilding project take 12.

That is the least surprising change that will happen today.

Shanahan is probably the last big name Snyder is going to be able to bribe into taking that job.

I would think so.  But then again, the Redskins are going to be failing for quite some time to come.  A Jerry Jones-type guy is almost never successful.  Jones himself had a brief period, but in the long run the only guy who could be owner and GM successfully was Al Davis, and even he spent the last decade of his life in abject failure.

[MadBurgerMaker]

The Lions fired Schwartz. 

[sbr]

The Lions fired Schwartz.

Ah good.  I was afraid they were going to hang onto him for one more year.

[Neil]

Schwartz was the worst coach.

[Valmy]

But then again, the Redskins are going to be failing for quite some time to come.

Oh really?  I am so glad I have you around to tell me these things

They have been failing since 1992 so I think I can take it.

[sbr]

Schwartz was the worst coach.

I don't think he was the worst.  I think he deserves some credit for taking a disaster of a team to respectability pretty quickly.  It is pretty clear that he isn't a top level playoff coach though.  The complete lack of discipline in all phases has to be put on him and that is the Lions' biggest problem now; they are very talented they just need to clean things up to become a dangerous playoff team.

[alfred russel]

Why would anyone think that Tressel is even capable of coaching at that level?

The better question is why anyone though Chudzinski was capable of coaching at a level above TE coach. His non GA / TE coach history:

2001 - 2003 - Miami Hurricanes OC - was about to get fired when he bolted to the Browns as TE coach

2007-2008 - Cleveland Browns OC - fired

2011-2012 - Panthers OC - How would you evaluate his job there after seeing the Panthers after he left?

At least Tressel had success as a head coach at another level of football.

[alfred russel]

My research:

The following coaches were hired in 2012. The number represents the 2013 improvement / (worsening) of their record vs. their first year.

Chuck Pagano (Colts): -
Joe Philbin (Fins): +1
Dennis Allen (Raiders): -
Greg Schiano (Bucs): (3)

Granted that still isn't a large sample size, but it doesn't seem to show much of a trend of improvement. In the NFL, there is so much roster turnover, parity, and similarity in styles that I think to an extent you are what you are.

That isn't to say that a good coach can't turn in a bad record with difficult circumstances, and I think the Browns had difficult circumstances in 2013.

[Admiral Yi]

I tend to think head coaches are figureheads.  The OC and the DC have to call every single play.  What does a head coach do?  He pats everyones's ass and he makes a handful of crucial decisions like go for it or punt on 4th.

[MadBurgerMaker]

I tend to think head coaches are figureheads.  The OC and the DC have to call every single play.  What does a head coach do?  He pats everyones's ass and he makes a handful of crucial decisions like go for it or punt on 4th.

The Browns are supposedly keeping the assistants and coordinators.