Ukraine's European Revolution?

[citizen k]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4h6zLhy2ps



Ukrainian armored vehicles seen close to Donetsk

[Valmy]

Oh is the Ukraine still involved in this?  I thought it was Russia vs. the US.

[Berkut]

Anyone have any firm sources on US involvement in instigating/encouraging/whatever the dissent in the Ukraine?

[DGuller]

Anyone have any firm sources on US involvement in instigating/encouraging/whatever the dissent in the Ukraine?

I have plenty, but I can't be bothered to translate them from Russian.

[derspiess]

Anyone have any firm sources on US involvement in instigating/encouraging/whatever the dissent in the Ukraine?

None of this is particularly nefarious, but:

http://www.ned.org/publications/annual-reports/2011-annual-report/central-and-eastern-europe/ukraine

[Sheilbh]

Anyone have any firm sources on US involvement in instigating/encouraging/whatever the dissent in the Ukraine?

There's always a lot of linking of Soros's Open Society work and the US (and Jews) in this region. I suppose he represents lots of things Russia has issues with.

Putinism is hardly an "ideological" challenge to the West, as it has zero attractions to anyone other than as a foil to those who actively hate the West and all its works. No-one outside of Russia itself (and wannabe Russians) is likely to be attracted to it on its own merits.

Maybe ideology's the wrong word. It seems like the first exportable alternative model to some form or other of Western liberal market democracy.

[Queequeg]

I think managed democracy and a kind of reformed, meritocratic autocracy on the Singapore-China model have both been around for a while. 

[jimmy olsen]

Now we just have to freeze those assets and their economy will collapse!

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/russian-economy-hammered-massive-money-drain-n77251

Russian Economy Hammered by Massive Money Drain
By John W. Schoen

While Russian President Vladimir Putin plots his next move into Ukraine, capital is fleeing Russia.

Russia's central bank this week confirmed that some $64 billion in assets held by Russians headed for the exits in the first three months of this year — roughly matching the total for all of 2013. That amounts to roughly 12 percent of Russia's gross domestic product.

The hemorrhaging is expected to continue if the turmoil in the Ukraine continues. Officials at the World Bank have warned that Russia could watch another $150 billion in capital leave the country if the crisis deepens. Since 2008, nearly half a trillion dollars has fled the country.

As the money flowing out of Russia surges, the upheaval in Ukraine has put a damper on investment coming into the country. The cash squeeze comes as Russia's economy is barely growing, inflation is rising fast and the central bank has been forced to raise interest rates to prop up a sagging ruble.

Earlier this week, Russia's Economy Ministry predicted that GDP growth could slow to around 0.5 percent — from 1.3 percent last year.

The U.S. and Western countries seeking to thwart Putin's Ukrainian ambitions have threatened economic sanctions if the Russian aggression continues. So far those have been limited to freezing the holdings of a handful of Putin's political allies.

"The Achilles' heel of the Russian economy remains the flow abroad of Russian capital following any shock," Goldman Sachs analysts Clemens Grafe and Andrew Matheny said in a recent note. "We would also think that any sanctions or even the threat of sanctions will be ultimately targeted at these flows."

But Western leaders' tough talk of wider asset freezes and threats of broader economic sanctions are complicated by Europe's dependence on Russia for roughly 30 percent of its natural gas demand supplies, half of which flows through Ukraine.

Putin played that trump card again Thursday, warning European leaders that the Kremlin would cut natural gas supplies to Ukraine if it did not pay up on a $2.2 billion gas debt.

[Queequeg]

There's an argument that this is precisely what Putin is trying to accomplish.  I think Vladislav Surkov, kind of the chief (or at least the smartest and most interesting) intellectual of the Putin administration, has argued as such. 

[citizen k]

Anyone have any firm sources on US involvement in instigating/encouraging/whatever the dissent in the Ukraine?

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/04/08/agents_provocateurs_and_the_shadow_war_in_eastern_ukraine

[jimmy olsen]

There's an argument that this is precisely what Putin is trying to accomplish.  I think Vladislav Surkov, kind of the chief (or at least the smartest and most interesting) intellectual of the Putin administration, has argued as such.

Why?

[Syt]

The Russians now claim that the satellite pictures of their army build up are actually from August last year, and not current. 

[Queequeg]

There's an argument that this is precisely what Putin is trying to accomplish.  I think Vladislav Surkov, kind of the chief (or at least the smartest and most interesting) intellectual of the Putin administration, has argued as such.

Why?

IIRc Surkov argued that the less money going towards Swiss accounts and Public School, the more going towards roads and houses in Russia.

More likely that Putin wants to systematically wipe out the income and property of the Oligarchs that isn't already under his direct control. It's bloodless Yezhovshchina.

[jimmy olsen]

There's an argument that this is precisely what Putin is trying to accomplish.  I think Vladislav Surkov, kind of the chief (or at least the smartest and most interesting) intellectual of the Putin administration, has argued as such.

Why?

IIRc Surkov argued that the less money going towards Swiss accounts and Public School, the more going towards roads and houses in Russia.

More likely that Putin wants to systematically wipe out the income and property of the Oligarchs that isn't already under his direct control. It's bloodless Yezhovshchina.

If his actions completely tank the economy he's going to suddenly find that he doesn't have the Oligarchs as cowed as he thought they were.

[Syt]

Well, if he can create a siege mentality (it's all foreign sabotage against Mother Russia! which, let's face it, Russians are prone to) then he might get away with it for a while.