Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Admiral Yi]

 

[PJL]

This article is really interesting, though for some reason I am having trouble posting it.

Is the math there valid?

As far as GDP per capita is, the facts appear to be correct. In fact it's doing a lost worse than Belarus, which surprised me. The lesson learned here is that Ukraine must choose between EU or Russia, not vacillate between the two, or else risk even falling further behind. So unless the EU fast tracks Ukrainian membership, we might as well let it fall under the Russia sphere. By merely protesting and not giving real support we are making the situation worse, both economically and politically.

[Queequeg]

 
Wouldn't some form of partition be the most sensible solution in that case?

[Admiral Yi]

I don't see the point of Sqeelus' article.  Ukraine's economy has been greatly impeded by a Soviet style bureacracy and rule of law, plus much wealth has been siphoned off by a kleptocratic elite.  Neither of those factors are intractable.

The point about proximity to wealth in particular I thought a silly one.

[Iormlund]

EU membership is not a panacea.

It requires a humongous amount of structural changes for a sub-par economy to be able to enjoy the benefits of joining the Union. Larchie might be too young but Celed surely remembers that for a decade the most repeated word in Spanish news was "competitiveness". Those years saw the collapse of most of our mines and heavy industries, with things like textiles falling not far behind. The primary sector also suffered, now being held to strict quotas. In the end Spain had to reinvent the greater part of its economy, and I'm willing to bet the same was true of Poland or the Czechs. The result was, of course, a much more diverse, dynamic and robust economy, but it took time and a lot of sacrifices to get there.

[Queequeg]

And Ukraine is going to have to do all that with the world's greatest demographic crisis and half the country wanting to join Russia.  It's not going to work as it is. 

[Iormlund]

Especially since most of the heavy industry, which is surely doomed, is located in pro-Russian oblasts.

[Queequeg]

It's not going to hold together.  The east's economy is going to start falling apart the moment those reforms start kicking in.  I don't really see any happy endings. 

[Barrister]

Wouldn't some form of partition be the most sensible solution in that case?

Is there any historical example, ever, where partition of a country was the easy and sensible solution?

Partition is invariably a difficult, messy, and frequently violent solution.  No one is ever satisfied with the outcome, leading to generations of bad blood.

Crimea is the only part that was remotely "easy" to partition, because of it's unique history (historically home of the Tatars, and thus neither Russia or Ukraine, but now filled with Russians brought in during the soviet era), and see how much difficulty has resulted.  It only gets harder from here.

[Queequeg]

Wasn't all of southern and eastern Ukraine historically filled with Tatars and then later settled by Russians? 

[Valmy]

Wasn't all of southern and eastern Ukraine historically filled with Tatars and then later settled by Russians? 

By the way what is the difference between a Cossack and a Ukrainian?  For some reason I thought they were the same thing.

[Queequeg]

United States of Central America broke up and has generally been fine. I think there were a lot worse solutions than the partition of Germany. 

[Admiral Yi]

Is there any historical example, ever, where partition of a country was the easy and sensible solution?

The partition of Czechoslovakia didn't solve any pressing problem but it was definitely easy.

Maybe there's the makings of a generalizable principle of international relations in there somewhere. 

[Queequeg]

Sweden-Norway did okay, and Iceland-Denmark.

[PJL]

Wouldn't some form of partition be the most sensible solution in that case?

Is there any historical example, ever, where partition of a country was the easy and sensible solution?

Czechoslovakia was relatively painless. And even the former USSR didn't turn out too bad (current events notwithstanding).