Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Valmy]

Reports the UN envoy's been kidnapped in Crimea.

Source?

Twitter, so it's probably not confirmed but is the first place you'd hear about it if it did happen.

@Bob_the_UN_guy 7m

Help some Russian guys have 436sdsxd546x

@Bob_the_UN_guy 2m

I have been given protection from the fascists by the benevolent Russian government.  All hail Putin!

[Tamas]

UN says he was only threatened and now safely back to hotel.

[derspiess]

@Bob_the_UN_guy 7m

Help some Russian guys have 436sdsxd546x

@Bob_the_UN_guy 2m

I have been given protection from the fascists by the benevolent Russian government.  All hail Putin!

[Tamas]

However, a Colonel of the Ukrainian border guards has been, in fact, kidnapped near Yalta.

[Berkut]

What a huge disaster this is for Russia.

Even if it plays out in a nominally "positive" manner from the short term (say Crimea firmly in the Russian sphere, maybe even parts of Easter Ukraine), one would at least hope that this entire mess makes it 100% clear to the West that RUSSIA IS NOT OUR FRIEND!

And we should act accordingly in both political and economic dealings.

[crazy canuck]

What a huge disaster this is for Russia.

Even if it plays out in a nominally "positive" manner from the short term (say Crimea firmly in the Russian sphere, maybe even parts of Easter Ukraine), one would at least hope that this entire mess makes it 100% clear to the West that RUSSIA IS NOT OUR FRIEND!

And we should act accordingly in both political and economic dealings.

My bet is that is not going to happen.  Western Europe has become too reliant on the Russians.  It would be like asking Western companies not to manufacture their goods in China.

[Tamas]

Some 40 assailants "dressed like bikers" seized Col Gen Mikhail Koval at about 16:00 local time near the gates of the Coast Guard naval base. They pushed away the officers surrounding the general and shoved him into a jeep, the border guard's press service said. They believe Col Gen Koval was taken to Sevastopol, and was trying to negotiate with the kidnappers, the BBC understands.

this is a weird-ass crisis

[Queequeg]

Some 40 assailants "dressed like bikers" seized Col Gen Mikhail Koval at about 16:00 local time near the gates of the Coast Guard naval base. They pushed away the officers surrounding the general and shoved him into a jeep, the border guard's press service said. They believe Col Gen Koval was taken to Sevastopol, and was trying to negotiate with the kidnappers, the BBC understands.

this is a weird-ass crisis

It's very peculiarly 2014 Eastern Europe. 

[Tamas]

: ITV's Europe editor, James Mates, says on Twitter that he is with the UN's representative in Crimea, Robert Serry in a coffee shop in Crimea. He tweeted this photo, saying a local militia outside were blocking the door:

[Queequeg]

Russian equipment is crap, and teaching an Ukrainian to use a javelin is easier than teaching an Afghan how to use a Stinger.  We should probably give them those as well.  A relatively inexpensive way to give the Ukraine the capability to easily destroy expensive Russian equipment. We don't want to give the Ukraine a modest boost, we want to change the calculus on the ground.

How dependent is the efficiency of this type of equipment on the terrain?  The eastern cities would fall in days/hours, and the central plains would seem to offer ever conceivable advantage to conventional forces.  Unless they plan on marching in to the Carpathians I don't see how even the contemporary Russian army could totally fuck up a move in to Eastern and Southern Ukraine. 

[Tamas]

ITV's James Mates says UN representative Robert Serry asked him and his crew to stay and film the encounter with the armed men in Crimea. He provided updates on Twitter:

"Robert Serry has now agreed to go straight to the airport and end his mission in #Crimea"
"Crowd chant Russia Russia as UN envoy leaves coffee shop and scrambles into waiting car
"Car moves slowly off to cries of Crimea Russia"

developing situation. If I understand it right, UN envoy is fleeing Crimea shortly after arriving.

Non-Russian pro-Russians must feel endangered by him. He must be an Estonian sniper in disguise.

[Queequeg]

How weird is it to see the Ukrainians and the Poles completely together on this? I went down to a Polish restaurant in Wicker Park and talked for a bit about this, and it struck me that of all the Poles there a pretty substantial number would have been pushed out of (or, alternatively murdered by) Western Ukraine by the UPA during the war.  That shit was hideous. 

[Sheilbh]

What a huge disaster this is for Russia.

Even if it plays out in a nominally "positive" manner from the short term (say Crimea firmly in the Russian sphere, maybe even parts of Easter Ukraine), one would at least hope that this entire mess makes it 100% clear to the West that RUSSIA IS NOT OUR FRIEND!

And we should act accordingly in both political and economic dealings.

I'm not paid by him, but have a read:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/New-Cold-War-Kremlin-Menaces-ebook/dp/B007G5Z5CK/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&qid=1394040571&sr=8-4&keywords=edward+lucas
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Deception-Edward-Lucas-ebook/dp/B00746TV4O/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1394040571&sr=8-3&keywords=edward+lucas
http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Snowden-Operation-Greatest-Intelligence-ebook/dp/B00I0W61OY/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1394040571&sr=8-1&keywords=edward+lucas

[Sheilbh]

How weird is it to see the Ukrainians and the Poles completely together on this? I went down to a Polish restaurant in Wicker Park and talked for a bit about this, and it struck me that of all the Poles there a pretty substantial number would have been pushed out of (or, alternatively murdered by) Western Ukraine by the UPA during the war.  That shit was hideous.

There's a reason Ukraine's national anthem ('Ukraine has not yet perished') is based on Poland's national anthem ('Poland is not lost yet').

[Queequeg]

How weird is it to see the Ukrainians and the Poles completely together on this? I went down to a Polish restaurant in Wicker Park and talked for a bit about this, and it struck me that of all the Poles there a pretty substantial number would have been pushed out of (or, alternatively murdered by) Western Ukraine by the UPA during the war.  That shit was hideous.

There's a reason Ukraine's national anthem ('Ukraine has not yet perished') is based on Poland's national anthem ('Poland is not lost yet').

Yeah, well they still have been murdering each other by the thousands since the East Slav-friendly Gediminids died.  Polish dominion in Ukraine was neither particularly efficient nor particularly friendly.