Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Razgovory]

It is a nice start.

So it is a start, but the only tangible action is that Russia doesn't get to be in the G8. There is also implied that the Ukraine will get access to money. Effectively it is just a sternly worded letter.

Honestly, did anybody expect anything else this quickly?  And on a weekend?  C'mon, "strong letter to follow" was the only real play this early after the international phone calls and Sunday talking heads shows on Oscars Weekend.

I'm afraid that's the only arrow in our quiver.  I really hope you are right that that the Russians can't fight their way out of a paper bag.

[Jacob]

How is this for a scenario:

Putin wants a war that puts him in a Cold War with the West as a justification for further authoritarianism and a president-for-life position back home?

[LaCroix]

How is this for a scenario:

Putin wants a war that puts him in a Cold War with the West as a justification for further authoritarianism and a president-for-life position back home?

doubt it

[jimmy olsen]

Another cold war doesn't seem to be in the cards unless he tries to swallow at least half the country, and I don't know if he's willing to go that far given the difficulties that would ensue.

[CountDeMoney]

How is this for a scenario:

Putin wants a war that puts him in a Cold War with the West as a justification for further authoritarianism and a president-for-life position back home?

Hell, he doesn't need a Cold War to accomplish that.  Quite frankly I don't see how much more authoritarianismy and president-for-lifey he can get. 

[CountDeMoney]

I really hope you are right that that the Russians can't fight their way out of a paper bag.

They're in way over their operational heads with this one.

[LaCroix]

Euromaidan PR ‏@EuromaidanPR 16m
Tensions remains at the #Ukrainian military unit No1656 in #Sevastopol during several hours - KrymSOS FB |PR News #CrimeaInvasion

Euromaidan PR ‏@EuromaidanPR 12m
#Ukrainian soldiers from MU No1656 in #Sevastopol received ultimatum from unknown armed men to lay down their weapons -KrymSOS FB|PR #Crimea

Euromaidan PR ‏@EuromaidanPR 5m
#Ukrainian soldiers are not allowed enemy to enter #Sevastopol MU No1656 & have refused to lay down weapons -KrymSOS FB|PR #CrimeaInvasion

[Razgovory]

I really hope you are right that that the Russians can't fight their way out of a paper bag.

They're in way over their operational heads with this one.

They don't have to be good, just better then Ukraine.  I really do hope you are right, otherwise you won't be getting any Christmas cards from me this year.

[alfred russel]

I'm afraid that's the only arrow in our quiver.  I really hope you are right that that the Russians can't fight their way out of a paper bag.

There are sanctions, both on business and people. Significant support to Western Ukraine may make it less of a shithole and foster pro western sentiments in the region, which Moscow wouldn't appreciate. I really think NATO should make some sort of commitment to the Baltics with more than words, to emphasize where the red line really is.

[alfred russel]

How is this for a scenario:

Putin wants a war that puts him in a Cold War with the West as a justification for further authoritarianism and a president-for-life position back home?

I think it is more likely that younger people and anyone with pulse prefer the EU way to the Russian way. Even in Serbia people are starting to look more to the EU. If Russia can't hold influence in the Ukraine, even after sending massive aid their way, how long can Putin really keep fooling the Russian people into thinking that Russia is strong again?

[Razgovory]

I'm afraid that's the only arrow in our quiver.  I really hope you are right that that the Russians can't fight their way out of a paper bag.

There are sanctions, both on business and people. Significant support to Western Ukraine may make it less of a shithole and foster pro western sentiments in the region, which Moscow wouldn't appreciate. I really think NATO should make some sort of commitment to the Baltics with more than words, to emphasize where the red line really is.

I'm skeptical about the sanctions.  It's like putting sanctions on the mob.  These guys know all about getting around legal and fiscal bureaucracy.  NATO already has made a commitment to the Baltic.  They are part of NATO.  Right now they are seriously asking themselves if that means shit.  I ask myself the same question.  The things said by Iormland don't fill me with comfort.

[derspiess]

Yep.

[LaCroix]

Euromaidan PR ‏@EuromaidanPR 4m
#Russian BlackSeaFleet captain has warned #Sevastopol MU No1656,if they refuse to layDown weapons,storming willStarts thisMorning -espreso.tv

5 AM in ukraine right now

[CountDeMoney]

They don't have to be good, just better then Ukraine.  I really do hope you are right, otherwise you won't be getting any Christmas cards from me this year.

They really haven't improved all that much since Georgia--who, to their credit and with only a little NATO training and equipment, punched the Russians square in the mouth during several small engagements.   The Russians won on sheer numbers despite a completely lackluster combined arms performance, particularly with the incompetent use of their air power;  remember, it took them a couple months to scrape together the best echelon units to go into Georgia at the outset, including virtually all their special forces and airborne units.  Their adept use at cyber attacks didn't hurt, either. 

The Ukrainians suffer from the same operational handcuffing, i.e., still stuck with former Soviet doctrine, but they've got home-field advantage, and they're not trapped in a shoebox like Georgia.  I'm confident that Russia could get extremely bloodied in this one--provided Ukrainian units stop switching sides BECAUSE THAT NEVER HAPPENS WITH UKRAINIANS

[alfred russel]

I'm skeptical about the sanctions.  It's like putting sanctions on the mob.  These guys know all about getting around legal and fiscal bureaucracy.  NATO already has made a commitment to the Baltic.  They are part of NATO.  Right now they are seriously asking themselves if that means shit.  I ask myself the same question.  The things said by Iormland don't fill me with comfort.

What I meant by commitment is deploying troops there. If when Russia starts acting frisky you deploy troops to guard the border, you are letting everyone know you are committed.

Russia is integrated into the global economy probably a bit better than you think. Private sector businesses in Moscow and Saint Petersberg are vulnerable to sanctions.