Debt Ceiling & Default - what's going to happen?

[CountDeMoney]

He would've pissed it all away on hookers and blow anyway.

[Ed Anger]

And opium.

[Admiral Yi]

And ballroom lessons.

[CountDeMoney]

Didn't know I was crowding you.  HAR

[jimmy olsen]

I know that the Supreme Court has ruled that Social Security is not a legal obligation.

If only Minsky was here right now 

Where is he?

[Sheilbh]

Also on prioritisation, imagine the political consequences if the US government was choosing to pay Chinese debt holders over, say veterans' benefits...

[Ideologue]

I voted other, but does "wackiness" encompass "bloody civil war"?

[Jacob]

Thanks for that post, Sheilbh. I'd read elsewhere that prioritization was not just a matter of deciding but that lays it out better than what I'd come across previously.

[Jacob]

I voted "breach and a few weeks to fix" by the way. I don't think the GOP is taking it seriously enough - too many Rasputins and MiMs in their hinterland means there isn't enough pressure for a back down.

Then the shit does hit the fan, and it's a big enough mess that they realize it was a mistake, but it takes a bit to pick the broken egg back up.

I hope I'm wrong, though

[Sheilbh]

Thanks for that post, Sheilbh. I'd read elsewhere that prioritization was not just a matter of deciding but that lays it out better than what I'd come across previously.

One other problem that isn't mentioned there is the legality. This would be the executive choosing which bills to pay. I don't believe that Congress has set the seniority levels of the spending bills they've passed - whether on the military, social security or whatever else.

At any other time this would be seen as an enormous power grab by the executive. This would surely be of dubious legality and need testing in the Supreme Court, or if legal an awful precedent to set.

[Jacob]

I saw mentioned elsewhere that Treasury might be able to limp along until the 31st servicing T-Bills, assuming the internal systems allow that sort of selective payouts.

In any case, when Social Security payments stop being processed that will be a major pain point. Same with military pay. I expect a resolution shortly after those thresholds are passed.

[lustindarkness]

"Unlike a federal shutdown which has no impact on the payment of Social Security benefits, failure to raise the debt ceiling puts Social Security benefits at risk."

[Jacob]

"Unlike a federal shutdown which has no impact on the payment of Social Security benefits, failure to raise the debt ceiling puts Social Security benefits at risk."

Yup. That's going to be a turning point, I believe.

[Admiral Yi]

Guller: $30 even money cap is raised in time.

[DGuller]

Guller: $30 even money cap is raised in time.

If I win, my $30 may be worth nothing.  I really can't begin to put the odds on it, except that I think they're significant.