The Government Shutdown Countdown Lowdown MEGATHREAD

[OttoVonBismarck]

This was precisely what I was worried about in the past few days. Emperor Obama, in his fashion, dismissed the House on Friday and I was worried that might be just enough to get Boehner to die on the cross for his Tea Party caucus members. Boehner is mostly a pretty reasonable guy in my opinion, but he has shown great exasperation with Obama in the past and I was worried the "snub" of the House plan might set us up for something like this. It was in the back of my mind the whole time leaks of the Reid-McConnell negotiations were ongoing, that Boehner may say fuck that shit.

My totally unscientific odds now say:

35% chance - Default / No Debt Ceiling increase on 10/17
35% chance - Boehner opens up a "conscience vote" and a coalition of moderate GOP and all the Democrats get the Senate plan approved sometime on 10/16
15% chance - Some version of the House plan gets passed by the Senate and signed by Obama
5% chance - Moderate Republicans rebel and sign the outstanding discharge petition Pelosi started, bringing a vote over Boehner's objection which gets approved by all Democrats + the rebelling House GOP members (it'd take 15 IIRC.)

[Sheilbh]

Also can the Senate not vote to temporarily suspend the rules?

[CountDeMoney]

Lol, Emperor Obama.

[Admiral Yi]

10/17 is when the US loses the authority to issue new debt.  The real deadline is 11/1, when bills come due that we don't have cash on hand to pay.

[Grey Fox]

Lol, Emperor Obama.

He's black, therefore evil.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Also can the Senate not vote to temporarily suspend the rules?

Yes, most likely. Parliamentary rules are pretty fluid in the United States, but the Senate is heaped with tradition. In a dire circumstance we might see something like this. Also note that on rule change votes there basically is not a parliamentary "opening" that would allow the rule change to be filibustered, so there isn't a concern of the rule change being filibustered if Reid wanted to fast track something using such a mechanism.

As for the Senate bill passing and then being modified, that's basically common. When a bill originates in one house, except for a narrow range of exceptions, it usually gets slightly tweaked in the other house, then it gets sent back to the original house for reconciliation. Reconciliation is a much faster process than is passing the original bill. In the Senate, the reconciliation process for a bill that has "came back" with amendments is much quicker than the process where the Senate first takes up consideration of a bill that originated in the House, if you get what I mean.

[CountDeMoney]

Lol, Emperor Obama.

He's black, therefore evil.

Shaka Brah Obama.

[Sheilbh]

10/17 is when the US loses the authority to issue new debt.  The real deadline is 11/1, when bills come due that we don't have cash on hand to pay.

Possibly. The market reaction before then would also probably force a deal.

[OttoVonBismarck]

10/17 is when the US loses the authority to issue new debt.  The real deadline is 11/1, when bills come due that we don't have cash on hand to pay.

Perhaps, 11/1 is the guaranteed default date, as we have ~$60bn in outflows mandated and will have no more than $30bn in cash.

But I believe there is enough uncertainty (I'm guessing based on variable receipts) from 10/17 to 11/1 that we could run out of cash. Treasury interest payments are due on set interval so we wouldn't truly default until 11/1 (and who knows after that point if we engage in prioritization shenanigans) but we might miss expected payments.

[lustindarkness]

10/17 is when the US loses the authority to issue new debt.  The real deadline is 11/1, when bills come due that we don't have cash on hand to pay.

Are bills paid once a month? I don't think so, I imagine there are bills paid every day.

[CountDeMoney]

The market reaction before then would also probably force a deal.

I don't think the market matters when it comes to principles of ideology.  We're talking Big Picture stuff here.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Lol, Emperor Obama.

He's black, therefore evil.

Shaka Brah Obama.

My simple point vis-a-vis Obama is he bears a large portion of the blame for this.

In order of blame, broadly:

1. Ted Cruz
2. House Tea Party Caucus
3. Barack Obama
4. Harry Reid
5. John Boehner

Obama has created several falsehoods, like the claim that to negotiate on this somehow diminishes the Presidency (when it is in fact typical to negotiate over these sort of things), that have not helped at all. He's also maintained long periods of being "above communicating" with the "small people" in the House, which I think has done much to put us here. Harry Reid and his fat mouth in public has not helped at all either, it's not a great negotiating strategy when you know you need at least some people in the House to vote against their constituencies and their public bravado to be constantly spewing insults at them.

I don't blame either as much as I blame Ted Cruz or the House Tea Party caucus, but I blame them more than Boehner who is essentially a weak man victim to his circumstances.

[Admiral Yi]

Are bills paid once a month? I don't think so, I imagine there are bills paid every day.

Not every day.  Saw a timeline, I think in the Economist.  Bond coupons are twice a year, SS checks are once a month, I think (you tell me) federal/military checks are once a month.  It's not like the US has to pay a cable bill on the 18th then an electricity bill on the 19th.

I'll see if I can hunt down that article.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Are bills paid once a month? I don't think so, I imagine there are bills paid every day.

Not every day.  Saw a timeline, I think in the Economist.  Bond coupons are twice a year, SS checks are once a month, I think (you tell me) federal/military checks are once a month.  It's not like the US has to pay a cable bill on the 18th then an electricity bill on the 19th.

I'll see if I can hunt down that article.

Coupons are twice a year, but they are issued all the time so we most likely have some coming due every week or so.

Ex we recently had 2, 5, and 7 year notes settled on 9/3, 3 and 10 year notes and 30 year bond settled on 9/16, 10 year TIPS settled on 9/30. We also issue weekly duration bills all the time. Like we just sold some 14 week bills with a settlement date of 11/7, 10/24 etc. So most likely similar issues from a few months back will have payments due throughout the month.

[grumbler]

I don't think that there is a solution to this problem that Boehner isn't capable of fucking up.  I agree that the Senate needs to act now, because Boehner probably isn't capable of acting until forced into it.

It would be glorious to see Republican rebels shove a discharge petition up Boehner's ass, but that isn't going to happen.  That would be a vote of no confidence, and thus to nakedly honest for current US politics.