West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets likely to completely melt

Started by jimmy olsen, July 21, 2013, 10:32:17 PM

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The Minsky Moment

The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

KRonn

Quote from: jimmy olsen on July 21, 2013, 11:17:12 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on July 21, 2013, 11:08:42 PM
Nobody cares, Timmay.
They'll care if sea level rises 65 feet.

Would the ice melting cause higher sea levels? Ice was already in the ocean displacing water and if it melts it just takes up a different form, but still the same mass. I could be wrong, curious, so let me know if that theory "holds water".   

derspiess

I think we should panic and feel bad about ourselves over this.
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

frunk

Quote from: KRonn on July 22, 2013, 12:23:14 PM
Would the ice melting cause higher sea levels? Ice was already in the ocean displacing water and if it melts it just takes up a different form, but still the same mass. I could be wrong, curious, so let me know if that theory "holds water".

This is ice resting on land in Antarctica (and Greenland), not ice that is floating in the water.  You are correct that sea ice like in the Arctic has relatively little effect on global sea level.

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: derspiess on July 22, 2013, 12:25:23 PM
I think we should panic and feel bad about ourselves over this.

There is another option.
The other option is to implement policies based on rational risk assessment of potential scenarios and their likelihoods, using a cost benefit analysis adjusted for probability, severity, and timing.
Since many of the words I just used are too big for radio talk show hosts, it is possible you may may find this a novel concept.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

lustindarkness

Who has a link to the rising seas map? I just want to know how long a drive will be to the new beach/coast in 65 years, I mean at 105, I will have to get someone to drive me down there.
Grand Duke of Lurkdom

KRonn

Quote from: frunk on July 22, 2013, 12:26:23 PM
Quote from: KRonn on July 22, 2013, 12:23:14 PM
Would the ice melting cause higher sea levels? Ice was already in the ocean displacing water and if it melts it just takes up a different form, but still the same mass. I could be wrong, curious, so let me know if that theory "holds water".

This is ice resting on land in Antarctica (and Greenland), not ice that is floating in the water.  You are correct that sea ice like in the Arctic has relatively little effect on global sea level.
That's right, I stand corrected! That's very different.

Jacob

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on July 22, 2013, 12:29:44 PM
There is another option.
The other option is to implement policies based on rational risk assessment of potential scenarios and their likelihoods, using a cost benefit analysis adjusted for probability, severity, and timing.

Sounds good to me.

The Brain

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on July 22, 2013, 12:29:44 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 22, 2013, 12:25:23 PM
I think we should panic and feel bad about ourselves over this.

There is another option.
The other option is to implement policies based on rational risk assessment of potential scenarios and their likelihoods, using a cost benefit analysis adjusted for probability, severity, and timing.
Since many of the words I just used are too big for radio talk show hosts, it is possible you may may find this a novel concept.

Why do it here when we don't do it for anything else?
Women want me. Men want to be with me.

11B4V

Quote from: frunk on July 22, 2013, 07:04:35 AM
Quote from: 11B4V on July 22, 2013, 03:02:11 AM
QuoteEast Antarctic meltdown could cause massive sea rise

You don't think an East Antarctic meltdown could cause a massive sea rise?  Where do you think that water would go?

Read the message string. Tim was asking me a question.
"there's a long tradition of insulting people we disagree with here, and I'll be damned if I listen to your entreaties otherwise."-OVB

"Obviously not a Berkut-commanded armored column.  They're not all brewing."- CdM

"We've reached one of our phase lines after the firefight and it smells bad—meaning it's a little bit suspicious... Could be an amb—".

frunk

What's tricky is that we know that sea level can change very quickly on a geologic timescale, but that's a very long timescale.  So during the last ice age we know that sea levels changed ~100 meters, and that it happened within the past 20,000 years.  It could have been a much quicker transition than that, but there isn't nearly accurate enough data to tell.  I take the 30-50 year estimate with a grain of salt, but only a small grain.  The rapid rate at which other formerly permanent glaciers have disappeared over the past 200 years could mean the melting of the Antarctic glacier could go just as quickly with catastrophic result, but it isn't a sure thing.  Note that I'm not quibbling over the fact that if CO2 keeps on rising like it is that the big glaciers will melt, just over how quickly it will happen.

frunk

Quote from: 11B4V on July 22, 2013, 12:52:27 PM
Read the message string. Tim was asking me a question.

Could you say what is horseshit then?  The bit that you quoted doesn't answer Tim's question.

11B4V

Quote from: frunk on July 22, 2013, 07:04:35 AM
Quote from: 11B4V on July 22, 2013, 03:02:11 AM
QuoteEast Antarctic meltdown could cause massive sea rise

You don't think an East Antarctic meltdown could cause a massive sea rise?  Where do you think that water would go?

Has it melted yet? Hypothetical BS. Will Yellowstone Caldera blow.....maybe. Will we get hit with an extinction level metor....maybe. Will etc. 
"there's a long tradition of insulting people we disagree with here, and I'll be damned if I listen to your entreaties otherwise."-OVB

"Obviously not a Berkut-commanded armored column.  They're not all brewing."- CdM

"We've reached one of our phase lines after the firefight and it smells bad—meaning it's a little bit suspicious... Could be an amb—".

Jacob

Quote from: 11B4V on July 22, 2013, 01:18:33 PMHas it melted yet? Hypothetical BS. Will Yellowstone Caldera blow.....maybe. Will we get hit with an extinction level metor....maybe. Will etc.

Science?

What a crock!

Barrister

Quote from: 11B4V on July 22, 2013, 01:18:33 PM
Quote from: frunk on July 22, 2013, 07:04:35 AM
Quote from: 11B4V on July 22, 2013, 03:02:11 AM
QuoteEast Antarctic meltdown could cause massive sea rise

You don't think an East Antarctic meltdown could cause a massive sea rise?  Where do you think that water would go?

Has it melted yet? Hypothetical BS. Will Yellowstone Caldera blow.....maybe. Will we get hit with an extinction level metor....maybe. Will etc.

There is nothing we can do to prevent Yellowstone Caldera from blowing, or being hit by an extinction level meteor.

There is something we can do to prevent global warming.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.