The US Politics Thread

[DGuller]

but the spying stuff could be bad for him.

Has that really gained any traction among normal voters? My guess would be the people who care generally don't vote if there's not a Paul on the ballot.

I would guess that a lot of young Obama supporters are semi-libertarian, and that's a block he can't afford to piss off or disenchant.  I would also guess that they're not as docile as Languish intelligentsia.

[Sheilbh]

I would guess that a lot of young Obama supporters are semi-libertarian, and that's a block he can't afford to piss off or disenchant. 

Yes he can. I've said since 2008 that the one group who can feel legitimately betrayed by Obama are civil libertarians and that doesn't matter at all because there are roughly 10 people in any country who care about those issues more than anything else, but they've all got blog.

His civil liberties record didn't hurt him in 2012 any more than his lack of action on the environment did. They're (rightly) fringe issues to most people and I doubt they'll have much effect in 2014 either.

[DGuller]

I would guess that a lot of young Obama supporters are semi-libertarian, and that's a block he can't afford to piss off or disenchant. 

Yes he can. I've said since 2008 that the one group who can feel legitimately betrayed by Obama are civil libertarians and that doesn't matter at all because there are roughly 10 people in any country who care about those issues more than anything else, but they've all got blog.

His civil liberties record didn't hurt him in 2012 any more than his lack of action on the environment did. They're (rightly) fringe issues to most people and I doubt they'll have much effect in 2014 either.

I think your own rather contemptible take on that issue clouds your judgment a little bit. 

[Sheilbh]

I think your own rather contemptible take on that issue clouds your judgment a little bit.

I don't think so. There are certain subjects that I think people may take very strong opinions on, but that ultimately are more or less irrelevant on election day: civil liberties, the environment, generally foreign policy.

The number of people who care enough about those issues is miniscule and nowhere are they concentrated enough to matter.

It's like Europe in the UK.

[mongers]

So America has invented the bloodless civil war, though with the downside of longer period of state inactivity. 

[Eddie Teach]

Seems like something you and Dguller should take a bet on.

Is Guller in the habit of making bets he hopes he loses? 

[DGuller]

Seems like something you and Dguller should take a bet on.

Is Guller in the habit of making bets he hopes he loses? 

I don't know if I'd call that a habit, but I definitely can bet against my favorable outcome.  I bet Yi that Supreme Court would overturn Obamacare, and I was winning until that bastard Roberts flip-flopped. 

[fhdz]

Where do you see a middle ground between our current system and the Euro-Canuck single payer method?

I don't. I'd definitely prefer single-payer over the labyrinthine mess we have today.

I'd also prefer an utterly free-market solution to the labyrinthine mess we have today.

But of the two solutions I'd prefer single-payer.

[Admiral Yi]

What's your take on 538 and did you read the link?

OK, read the link and the argument is persuasive.

[Jacob]

Rep. Peter King (R-NY) says he may run for the GOP presidential nomination because:

a lack of a real defense policy or defense debate among Republican candidates for president, focusing primarily on Rand Paul and Ted Cruz

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/peter-king-says-rand-paul-is-fueling-his?ref=fpb

[DGuller]

Good luck with that.  Republicans from New York, no matter how believably repugnant, have between nil and zero chance of winning the nomination.

[fhdz]

Good luck with that.  Republicans from New York, no matter how believably repugnant, have between nil and zero chance of winning the nomination.

You might even say it's predictable.

[DGuller]

Good luck with that.  Republicans from New York, no matter how believably repugnant, have between nil and zero chance of winning the nomination.

You might even say it's predictable.

That would be a poor choice of words.

[fhdz]

Good luck with that.  Republicans from New York, no matter how believably repugnant, have between nil and zero chance of winning the nomination.

You might even say it's predictable.

That would be a poor choice of words.

[Savonarola]

I can see it.  Midterm elections during the president's second term rarely turn out well for the party holding the presidency, and Obama has had a few setbacks.  Some of them was just manufactured foam-at-the-mouth Republican bullshit, but the spying stuff could be bad for him.  The economy may also improve enough to the point that Americans would again feel secure enough to actively try to fuck it up.

Also Barack came into office with large coat-tails; the freshmen senators from 2008 are up for re-election.  Republicans was in an similar position in 1986 and lost 8 Senate seats.