What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Jacob]

Trump won't invade Venezuela, he has had a couple of consistent political positions since the 1980s:

1. Hatred of international trade, as a real estate investor he has never understood it and intrinsically thinks trade is just a way for America to lose money
2. Obsession with the concept that alliances are a form of being taken advantage of by the other country
3. Dislike of deploying the U.S. military overseas

Trump enjoys the uses of the military which mirror how he engages with the world--performative, off the cuff, Tweet format thinking and acting. This will look like drone / bombing strikes and possibly up to and including small special forces raids and naval incursions into Venezuelan waters. It will never look like the massive build up and invasion of Iraq in 2003.

If this sort of harassment fails to destabilize Maduro's regime to the point of him fleeing or losing support of the military, Trump will just pretend all of this never happened and move on to something else.

Yeah, that more or less matches my read as well.

[Razgovory]

Otto is probably right.  There doesn't appear to be any deeper strategy in the conflict with Venezuela.  For instance when Trump declared that Venezuelan airspace was closed that was news to both our military and theirs.  Venezuelan airspace is still not closed, we are still flying deportees into Venezuela.  I don't think anyone, including Trump, has any idea what Trump doing.  One day he advocates for executing drug dealers the next he pardons them. It's rule by shitpost and meme.  The best we can hope for is that Trump declares victory and moves on.