Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

Another good piece in the NYTimes today explaining the window that has been presented to the Russians, and the reason to be concerned they might achieve the upper hand in negotiating a resolution on their terms.

The Russians have apparently figured out how to counter the tech advantage the Ukrainian's had and are in a better position to just brute force their way to victory.

Macron may be right, NATO intervention might be required.

Yeah but I wouldn't jump to such conclusions yet. Sure they are advancing in what was a neglected part of the frontline but there seem to be no breakthrough yet. If they achieve one then we need to see how much capability they have to actually exploit it.

If you can get the article I suggest you read it.  It is an in depth analysis, hardly jumping to conclusions.


Actually I have some gift links left.  Here it is

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/14/us/politics/russia-momentum-ukraine-war.html?unlocked_article_code=1.sE0.MCHt.fTpi4n-D2lKH&smid=url-share

Thanks. The article indeed isn't alarmist but also doesn't argue for NATO intervention, which I mistakenly assumed based on what you wrote.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

This is going to end up as a Russian victory, won't it?

[PJL]

This is going to end up as a Russian victory, won't it?

Either that or WW3.

[Barrister]

This is going to end up as a Russian victory, won't it?

I mean it depends on what you mean by "victory" - I don't think Russian troops are marching through Kiyev, but I don't think Ukraine is going back to pre-2014 borders (which of course is my preferred outcome).

[Crazy_Ivan80]

This is going to end up as a Russian victory, won't it?

I mean it depends on what you mean by "victory" - I don't think Russian troops are marching through Kiyev, but I don't think Ukraine is going back to pre-2014 borders (which of course is my preferred outcome).

the victory here is showing the world that the West has become a  basically toothless entity, unable to stop what is basically a 3rd world country, albeit with nukes, from massively altering the security arrangement in it's own backyard.
Lot's of bluster, but not much will when things really matter.

We're not there yet, but it's starting to look an awefully lot like it.

[Barrister]

This is going to end up as a Russian victory, won't it?

I mean it depends on what you mean by "victory" - I don't think Russian troops are marching through Kiyev, but I don't think Ukraine is going back to pre-2014 borders (which of course is my preferred outcome).

the victory here is showing the world that the West has become a  basically toothless entity, unable to stop what is basically a 3rd world country, albeit with nukes, from massively altering the security arrangement in it's own backyard.
Lot's of bluster, but not much will when things really matter.

We're not there yet, but it's starting to look an awefully lot like it.

Then yes - that is my worry also.

[crazy canuck]

This is going to end up as a Russian victory, won't it?

I mean it depends on what you mean by "victory" - I don't think Russian troops are marching through Kiyev, but I don't think Ukraine is going back to pre-2014 borders (which of course is my preferred outcome).

If Trump wins I don't see how Ukraine survives.

[Maladict]

the victory here is showing the world that the West has become a  basically toothless entity, unable to stop what is basically a 3rd world country, albeit with nukes, from massively altering the security arrangement in it's own backyard.
Lot's of bluster, but not much will when things really matter.

We're not there yet, but it's starting to look an awefully lot like it.

I don't know, this might still be the wakeup call that gets us at least somewhat ready for an inevitable, larger confrontation.

[Barrister]

the victory here is showing the world that the West has become a  basically toothless entity, unable to stop what is basically a 3rd world country, albeit with nukes, from massively altering the security arrangement in it's own backyard.
Lot's of bluster, but not much will when things really matter.

We're not there yet, but it's starting to look an awefully lot like it.

I don't know, this might still be the wakeup call that gets us at least somewhat ready for an inevitable, larger confrontation.

And it only means sacrificing a nation of 38 million people!

I'm not seriously worried about a larger confrontation - if nothing else this has shown Putin that he can not directly confront the west writ-large.

But still - he's been emboldened in places like Georgia, and I wouldn't entirely write off the risk of attacks in the Baltics.

[Maladict]

the victory here is showing the world that the West has become a  basically toothless entity, unable to stop what is basically a 3rd world country, albeit with nukes, from massively altering the security arrangement in it's own backyard.
Lot's of bluster, but not much will when things really matter.

We're not there yet, but it's starting to look an awefully lot like it.

I don't know, this might still be the wakeup call that gets us at least somewhat ready for an inevitable, larger confrontation.

And it only means sacrificing a nation of 38 million people!

I'm not seriously worried about a larger confrontation - if nothing else this has shown Putin that he can not directly confront the west writ-large.

But still - he's been emboldened in places like Georgia, and I wouldn't entirely write off the risk of attacks in the Baltics.

I was thinking more of China than Russia. And I don't think Ukraine will be lost.

[Barrister]

I was thinking more of China than Russia. And I don't think Ukraine will be lost.

For Ukraine - probably not "los" (I don't think even pre-invasion Putin thought he could take and hold the whole country) - but worst case scenario that Ukraine loses the left (east) bank of the Dnipro and becomes "Finlandized" - the government becomes subserviant to Russia.

And yeah, China - fuck knows what they're thinking from this.  I can see reasons to be both re-assured, and depressed, from what China might be learning.  The performance of the Russian military has to cause China some concern.  I mean China hasn't been involved in any kind of military actions since what - 1979 in Vietnam?  And that was quite brief.  Western armies (well, really, the US) has been involved in numerous wars and it's military is battle-hardened.

But yeah the support to Ukraine has been half-hearted, hasn't it.

[Jacob]

I'm no expert on the topic, but I don't think we're about to see a Ukrainian collapse?

We are seeing the Russian's attacking during the zenith in Ukrainian supplies (due in part to the GOP Congress holding up American support). The question is how much ground they'll gain.

At some point the Russian attack will culminate and the current batch of Western supplies will arrive (Czech shells, F16s). My expectation is that we'll see another stalemate at that time, but depending on how depleted the Russians are after their push (and how much Ukraine has managed to get organized), maybe it won't?

If Trump wins in the US, and other Putin puppets and useful idiots win in upcoming European elections then Ukraine is going to be in a very tough spot as support is withdrawn.

Conversely, if Democrats get majorities in the house and senate (probably unlikely, I don't know), perhaps the US will step up more significantly. I'm not sure what the outlook is on more robust support coming from the major European powers.

Ultimately, Ukraine needs a lot more support to win decisively; and it needs some levels of support to continue hanging on. But how the level of support goes is not a settled question yet, I don't think?

[Tamas]

Yeah guys let's not get all defeatist.

[Jacob]

Apparently Blinken just announced another $2 billion package for Ukraine.

[Grey Fox]

South Korea has to be worried, Russian money is going to revitalize North Korea's arms industry.