Author Topic: US Elections 2020  (Read 259121 times)

DGuller

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7110 on: September 21, 2020, 11:27:35 am »
The election error in 2016 is harder to explain as 538 which was a notably outlier that was quite explicit about their modeling and the reasons for it.  There are lots of reasons to think that state poll errors would be correlated - not just because of similarities in sample composition across state lines but also for the simple reason that even recent polls are retrospective and don't capture last minute swings.
It could be as simple as the fact that it's not easy to do what Nate Silver did, and it can become a rabbit hole of assumptions.  I know from professional experience that it's disconcertingly common for decision-makers to eschew "fancy models" if they seem too hard, and just hope that whatever source of complication they're not tackling will prove to not be material.

Maximus

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7111 on: September 21, 2020, 11:31:15 am »
A lot can go wrong with fancy models. I imagine that gets much worse if you don't have massive amounts of data with which to test them.

Barrister

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7112 on: September 22, 2020, 03:17:49 pm »
Holy crap - the debate is in a week.   :ph34r:

Oexmelin

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7113 on: September 23, 2020, 10:51:06 am »
Don't be complacent, American friends. Please, take some time to think about what you will do, when (not if) Trump undermines the Election result.

Quote
Trump’s instinct as a spectator in 2018—to stop the count—looks more like strategy this year. “There are results that come in Election Night,” a legal adviser to Trump’s national campaign, who would not agree to be quoted by name, told me. “There’s an expectation in the country that there will be winners and losers called. If the Election Night results get changed because of the ballots counted after Election Day, you have the basic ingredients for a shitstorm.”

There is no “if” about it, I said. The count is bound to change. “Yeah,” the adviser agreed, and canvassing will produce more votes for Biden than for Trump. Democrats will insist on dragging out the canvass for as long as it takes to count every vote. The resulting conflict, the adviser said, will be on their heads.

“They are asking for it,” he said. “They’re trying to maximize their electoral turnout, and they think there are no downsides to that.” He added, “There will be a count on Election Night, that count will shift over time, and the results when the final count is given will be challenged as being inaccurate, fraudulent—pick your word.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/?s=04&fbclid=IwAR0kx6IG4gp-dRv_UsTK7H0eLDBg319AeCRKoLqfGvPdiYTw7cZBOpQRQS0
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The Minsky Moment

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7114 on: September 23, 2020, 11:04:31 am »
Quote
“They are asking for it,” he said. “They’re trying to maximize their electoral turnout, and they think there are no downsides to that.” He added, “There will be a count on Election Night, that count will shift over time, and the results when the final count is given will be challenged as being inaccurate, fraudulent—pick your word.”

This tells you everything you need to know about the current GOP mentality.  The Democrats are not trying to maximize "their" electoral turnout, they are trying to maximize electoral turnout (period) - with the understanding that higher turnout will be more to their benefit than the GOP.  The comment highlights the degree to which the GOP is reliant on a national strategy of denying voting rights and aggressively nullifying the votes of their fellow citizens.  The party has become a small "d" antidemocratic party, full stop.

The "canvassing" process he refers to is not some Democratic tactic, it is a fundamental part of the election law of every state in the union.  We may be used to TV networks "calling" election outcomes based on partial (large) samples and statistical models but those media "calls" have no legal status or significance.  The official state results are complied and certified later after canvassing is complete. That's how our election law works.  Trump is banking on the enough of the electorate to share his "reality TV" view of the world to mount a frontal assault on the rule of law.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
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Oexmelin

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7115 on: September 23, 2020, 11:07:24 am »
Trump is banking on the enough of the electorate to share his "reality TV" view of the world to mount a frontal assault on the rule of law.

Yes, and this *will* happen. Which is why I am urging all of you (and all of my IRL American friends) to think about how you will act, and what you will do when it happens. Otherwise, you'll all be caught off guard, and it's in those moments that authoritarianism thrives.
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The Minsky Moment

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7116 on: September 23, 2020, 11:16:19 am »
If Pennsylvania is the swing, then the Democrats will have an advantage since they control the key state offices and a majority of the state Supreme Court is Dem appointed. But Trump's assault will not be primarily legal, it will be through the conventional and social media. To be truthful I'm not entirely sure what to do on and individual level to counter this.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
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OttoVonBismarck

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7117 on: September 23, 2020, 11:19:45 am »
I take the view that Trump's rabble rousing will rouse rabble, but it won't overturn a validly lost election. It just means he's fomenting behavior that likely will result in actual people dying, but I think it won't rise to the level of like a civil war or a major insurrection or anything. So I guess in that sense I've just priced in there will be post election murders, probably in the form of a far right group shooting into a crowd of "Antifa", and hopefully that's as far as it goes.

OttoVonBismarck

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7118 on: September 23, 2020, 11:24:16 am »
Languish Brigade I forms up, all gun wielding American members of the forum meet up to contest the Trumpist brownshirts as necessary.

HVC

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7119 on: September 23, 2020, 11:26:00 am »
Languish Brigade I forms up, all gun wielding American members of the forum meet up to contest the Trumpist brownshirts as necessary.

I don't know, i feel like an argument will come up about what properly constitutes a brigade and you'll end up shooting each other :D
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crazy canuck

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7120 on: September 23, 2020, 11:31:59 am »
Languish Brigade I forms up, all gun wielding American members of the forum meet up to contest the Trumpist brownshirts as necessary.

I don't know, i feel like an argument will come up about what properly constitutes a brigade and you'll end up shooting each other :D

 :lol:

grumbler

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7121 on: September 23, 2020, 11:35:25 am »
I am not sure whether the Republicans are sincere in their slackjawed belief that vote totals never change after election night, or they are just hoping like hell that their base doesn't remember what happened two years ago, and in every election prior to that.

Absentee ballots have never been 100% counted by the time the last polls close.  Not in the history of ever.  They've always changed the vote count.  How it could be "on the heads" of the Democrats that this will 100% for sure be true this year is a mystery.

I can understand the Republican panic now that they realize that they have relentlessly driven themselves to the wrong side of history, and i agree with those that say that there is a Trumpeter base that will never believe that the Beloved Donald could ever lose without his opponents cheating, but I still don't see this as a serious problem to US democracy.  The "41% of Americans who love Trump" according to the clutched-pearl brigade are more like 21%, with the rest just going for The Donald because of the R behind his name.  That rump didn't riot when McCain or Romney lost and won't when (if) Trump loses.

Will there be anguished wailing and some violence?  Sure.  I think that the bigger threat than that 20%, though, is that probably 40% of the police belong to that crowd, because US procedures for selecting cops have skewed selection in favor of bullies.  When such cops are ordered to restore order, they are going to turn a blind eye to the Trumpeter rioters, and THAT's where the danger lies, I think.
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HVC

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7122 on: September 23, 2020, 11:40:43 am »
McCain and Romney didn't call for riot, Trump might. I doubt a mass movement will sweep democracy away in the US, but a portion, perhaps sizable, of those 21% are armed and crazy/stupid enough to do something.
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Hubris must be punished. Severely.

FunkMonk

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7123 on: September 23, 2020, 12:10:56 pm »
Their strategy in Pennsylvania, assuming they're losing the popular vote in the state, is to declare the vote somehow invalid or fraudulent because democracy is hard, and then have loyal Trump electors cast their votes for Donald.

I guess that would mean they also get to ignore elections for their own seats? Cuz sure, why not?

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PJL

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7124 on: September 23, 2020, 12:15:36 pm »
So I presume Trump thinks all US presidenrtal elections before 1848 were invalid as well.