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#31

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Tonitrus - December 12, 2025, 04:25:44 PM

Unfortunately, I think we have a fair bit of those same worries from Putin simply dying.

Will some other gangster-apparatchik take over with a smooth transition of the security-state control?  Or will some anti-Anglo/Z-fanatic take over and drop a nuke on London to try and cow Europe?

I think wide-scale civil war in Russia is extremely remote (though these things can surprise one), the population seems far too apathetic and inclined to just try and keep their heads down.  I think that makes it more likely that there would just be lots of arrests/window-tripping at the higher levels until someone comes out on top to take over the security services that hold the edifice together.

But thinking of these scenarios kind of makes the fall of the SU appear relatively orderly.

#32

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Tamas - December 12, 2025, 04:20:03 PM

I sometimes think there are far more ways in which the conclusion to the Russia story is a very grim, quite possibly nuclear winter-y world than not.

If Russia loses it will be like Germany after WW1. I think if there is any chance of an inward-looking regime to emerge they must get international support. Becuaee we don't want the 21st century equivalent of nazism with 6000 nukes.

Or they just collapse and then you have civil war with 6000 nukes.

Or they win this war and it will result in a regime that has mortal outside danger as its only remaining legitimation, which much like in Orbán's case will require constant escalation to be maintained.

It's very hard to see a scenario where they shed all their baggage and joon the cilviised world.

#33

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Tonitrus - December 12, 2025, 04:20:03 PM

My mother owns some of her family's land they took from native Americans during the Oklahoma land run. I manage it now. Which mostly consists of me contacting farmers and saying "hey farmer would you please farm my land? We will charge you basically nothing."

And then they are like "I don't know...farming basically free land is still kind of risky." Ah agriculture.

Does it matter to you whether it's farmed or not if they're not paying you much anyways?

Yes it is actually kind of important. And while it doesn't cost a ton to hold on to, it does cost something. Besides I want to help out the little guy and keep that land out of the hands of big Ag...which is probably a fruitless effort but I still try.

And it is actually not that hard to find farmers who want to farm it. I was kind of making a joke about how dour and generally negative these farmers are. What makes it hard, to the extent it is, is I live all the way down here in Texas, a ten hour drive away from the community in question. If I knew all these people and lived up there it would probably be super easy.

For the longest times, my dad/aunt had shared ownership of a large farm property in his hometown.  But they were doing the "get paid by Uncle Sam to not grow anything" program.  Though even that still required a significant expense to control invasive plants/weeds etc.  It's been sold since to a local area farming family.

#34

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Jacob - December 12, 2025, 04:18:52 PM

Well, for one thing, the Guardian has been criticising the British government's silence on the US policy document, so there is that. Also apart from Mertz, no other European reaction has breached my bubble.

The Danish Military Intelligence Agency has included the US as a risk factor in its annual threat assessment report. It may not be a direct reaction to the US policy document, though if not I don't think it improves the situation.

You're not going to get Denmark making big bold statements about "fuck the US", I don't think. The name of the game, I think, is to slow down the decoupling and turn to hostility as much as possible and hope for the best.

Conversely, I think Trump and the Fascist American Tech Oligarchs are going to take it a bit slow as well, hoping that their own and Russian influence operations will cause the EU to crumble without too much further action.

It's a slow dance, and frustrating, but at this point I think the slower the inevitable turn to hostility is the better for Europe; and I think European leaders are acting accordingly (though that doesn't mean some of them aren't burying their head in the sand - it's just that it might be hard to distinguish the two).

#35

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Tamas - December 12, 2025, 03:55:15 PM

I fear the European leaders are convincing themselves that all they need to do is survive 4 years to have a Democrat in the White House again, resetting time to like 2014. Ain't gonna happen.

Your fear is not consistent with anything I've been reading regarding how European leaders are reacting.

All is good then.

I wouldn't go that far. All would be much better if your fears were based on what you learn from actual new sources rather than wherever it was where you picked up the notion that European leaders are counting on the fact that miraculously the Americans will become honourable and reliable after the Trump presidency ends.

Well, for one thing, the Guardian has been criticising the British government's silence on the US policy document, so there is that. Also apart from Mertz, no other European reaction has breached my bubble.

It's great if they continue to build up in the background, but the influence war against reactionary fascism isn't won by agreeing in a room to up military spending by 2% over the course of 5 years unless the weather gets bad.

I know it's challenging when Trump is on the same xenophobic platform as the European far right but it must be made so that if you want to wave your Europran country's flag around you cannot also be a pro-America/Trump asshole like you can now.

#36

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Valmy - December 12, 2025, 03:25:07 PM

I think this is an example, which I've mentioned to Raz before, of a lot of "identity politics" not being driven by the left but by the centre left.

Please elaborate.

How often does Bernie Sanders mention being a jew? Usually it is the centrist Democrats who are like "The first XXX to be XXX! Look at our progress!" I used to joke that if they were around in the 1850s they would be celebrating the first trans plantation owner without actually doing anything to end slavery.

#37

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Valmy - December 12, 2025, 03:15:49 PM

Yes, I'd say it sounds like rewilding is the best option there.

That won't happen. Oil and gas companies are operating on it.

#38

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Valmy - December 12, 2025, 03:15:24 PM

My mother owns some of her family's land they took from native Americans during the Oklahoma land run. I manage it now. Which mostly consists of me contacting farmers and saying "hey farmer would you please farm my land? We will charge you basically nothing."

And then they are like "I don't know...farming basically free land is still kind of risky." Ah agriculture.

Does it matter to you whether it's farmed or not if they're not paying you much anyways?

Yes it is actually kind of important. And while it doesn't cost a ton to hold on to, it does cost something. Besides I want to help out the little guy and keep that land out of the hands of big Ag...which is probably a fruitless effort but I still try.

And it is actually not that hard to find farmers who want to farm it. I was kind of making a joke about how dour and generally negative these farmers are. What makes it hard, to the extent it is, is I live all the way down here in Texas, a ten hour drive away from the community in question. If I knew all these people and lived up there it would probably be super easy.

#39

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Duque de Bragança - December 12, 2025, 02:19:28 PM

Today I learned- an acre is around 1/2 a football pitch.
Now I can actually visualise acres.

That's cool. I have always pictured it as about 5 times the size of a suburban lot in the US. Half of a football...er...pitch is a little easier.

Do Brits still use acres? I figured you had moved to square meters...er...metres by this point.

At least In Portugal they've skipped acres and gone right to hectares if your a farmer, or sm if you're selling your farm.

Not skipped, acres were never used. 
There were other old units, but some were converted to metric i.e cantâro or almude (the latter dedicated to you.  ). Before getting out of use, that is.
Not to mention the old canada.

#40

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Josquius - December 12, 2025, 02:17:34 PM

Yes, I'd say it sounds like rewilding is the best option there.