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#31
Off the Record / Re: The China Thread
Last post by citizen k - November 26, 2025, 01:54:37 PMBBC news
At least 36 people have been killed in a major fire engulfing apartment blocks in the Tai Po district of Hong Kong, with 279 people not accounted for
At least 36 people have been killed in a major fire engulfing apartment blocks in the Tai Po district of Hong Kong, with 279 people not accounted for
#32
Off the Record / Re: The China Thread
Last post by citizen k - November 26, 2025, 01:53:00 PMCatastrophic fire in Hong Kong 
#33
Off the Record / Re: Facebook Follies of Friend...
Last post by Razgovory - November 26, 2025, 12:54:03 PMI think it's a problem with more than just Facebook.
#34
Off the Record / Re: The EU thread
Last post by Sheilbh - November 26, 2025, 12:49:34 PMI think there's different sets of questions for states and for companies - and I think they may point in slightly different directions.
So there are couple of other complications. I think one was made in an Economist piece about the growing combination of terror and anger in Europe about China's economic impact, which is pushing European policymakers away from China. That's not necessarily going to end up back in the US - but as someone who's aware that there's been discussions of Europe as a third pole for at least the last 60 years and it's still not happened I think it will perhaps end up being back with the US, but occasionally making disobliging comments (although not with the current administration). But the point in the article which I thought was interesting is that China already views Europe as basically an American satrapy so already sees America behind Europe and as European policymakers' attitudes harden it is quite possible that China will interpret that as American influence, even if it is something Europeans are concluding themselves. But because of that misinterpretation China may end up pushing Europeans and Americans together in spite of themselves.
The other thing that struck me was the news that I think VW may be looking at manufacturing in China for export which is something unimaginable a few years back. I wonder long-term if the effect of that will basically be to destroy the brand a little if the sense is that Western brands are manufacturing this in China, why not just buy the cheaper Chinese brand. Those long-standing Western companies may literally just become brands in the end.
It's very niche (if a multi-billion dollar industry) but that story made me think of the luxury goods sector where there's lots of Chinese industrial influencers on social media pushing the line that they actually make Hermes bags etc so why not buy direct for a fraction of the price. With subsequent and significant pushback from those companies that they don't manufacture in China and re-emphasising their artisanal practices and European heritage. It was interesting. Especially as I think the markets for both of those are each other. So it's Westerners who can't necessarily afford or don't care so much about the brand identity of the luxury goods firms going to dodgy drop-shipping companies to buy fake Hermes scarves from China, while it's China's new rich who are the huge growth market for legit hand-crafted European luxury goods
So there are couple of other complications. I think one was made in an Economist piece about the growing combination of terror and anger in Europe about China's economic impact, which is pushing European policymakers away from China. That's not necessarily going to end up back in the US - but as someone who's aware that there's been discussions of Europe as a third pole for at least the last 60 years and it's still not happened I think it will perhaps end up being back with the US, but occasionally making disobliging comments (although not with the current administration). But the point in the article which I thought was interesting is that China already views Europe as basically an American satrapy so already sees America behind Europe and as European policymakers' attitudes harden it is quite possible that China will interpret that as American influence, even if it is something Europeans are concluding themselves. But because of that misinterpretation China may end up pushing Europeans and Americans together in spite of themselves.
The other thing that struck me was the news that I think VW may be looking at manufacturing in China for export which is something unimaginable a few years back. I wonder long-term if the effect of that will basically be to destroy the brand a little if the sense is that Western brands are manufacturing this in China, why not just buy the cheaper Chinese brand. Those long-standing Western companies may literally just become brands in the end.
It's very niche (if a multi-billion dollar industry) but that story made me think of the luxury goods sector where there's lots of Chinese industrial influencers on social media pushing the line that they actually make Hermes bags etc so why not buy direct for a fraction of the price. With subsequent and significant pushback from those companies that they don't manufacture in China and re-emphasising their artisanal practices and European heritage. It was interesting. Especially as I think the markets for both of those are each other. So it's Westerners who can't necessarily afford or don't care so much about the brand identity of the luxury goods firms going to dodgy drop-shipping companies to buy fake Hermes scarves from China, while it's China's new rich who are the huge growth market for legit hand-crafted European luxury goods
#35
Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread
Last post by The Minsky Moment - November 26, 2025, 12:46:35 PMRight and I agree that LLMs can do things. I use them to do things. They are good at some things, less good at others, and simply can't do many things at all.
One thing they are not is "general intelligence" and I don't see the path to get there by enhancing LLMs.
One thing they are not is "general intelligence" and I don't see the path to get there by enhancing LLMs.
#36
Off the Record / Re: Facebook Follies of Friend...
Last post by The Minsky Moment - November 26, 2025, 12:44:30 PMMaybe stay away from FacebooK?
#37
Off the Record / Re: Facebook Follies of Friend...
Last post by Razgovory - November 26, 2025, 12:36:27 PM
This is basically what Facebook is these days.
#38
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Sheilbh - November 26, 2025, 12:36:16 PMQuote from: crazy canuck on November 26, 2025, 10:48:03 AMI agree, Jury trials are essential to the administration of justice in a common law jurisdiction.Something it seems Keir Starmer agreed with when he was a humble barrister writing for the Haldane Society of Socialist Lawyers house mag, Socialist Lawyer (that feels like more of a defined term than an appealing title
), back in 1992 when he called for all trials to be jury trials regardless of the expense I think that's going too far. I don't mind raising the bar of what is just heard by a magistrate and what can be heard by a jury (as well as what must be heard by a jury). Similarly there have been numerous white collar and complex fraud trials that have collapsed here because of the sheer complexity and volume of evidence (I think one lasted for two years before it fell apart - I think those cases are unreasonable for a jury and actually better suited to a judge.
So I don't mind some reform and I'm not a jury absolutist but murder, rape, manslaughter and certain "public interest" cases is far, far too narrow.
#39
Off the Record / Re: The EU thread
Last post by Zanza - November 26, 2025, 12:20:40 PMQuote from: The Minsky Moment on November 26, 2025, 11:11:32 AMMartin Wolf's editorial in the FT, worth reading: https://on.ft.com/48iyoODI work for a very exposed multinational. We try to de-risk by going for a local-for-local strategy. But with three blocks: USMCA, China and European Union. This includes RD, procurement, supply chains, production, integration with local cloud services, etc. Sales was always local anyway. I guess that's the general approach of the German economy as leaning strong towards the US at the cost of giving up on China is not a sustainable or reliable model.
The subject matter is a review of a book by a US economist Neal Shearing, The Fractured Age. Shearing argues that the world in splitting into two competing economic blocs, one led by the US and one by China. He argues that the US-led bloc will triumph because it is far stronger economically.
Wolf points out an obvious flaw in Shearing's argument: he assumes that Europe is "strongly aligned" in the US bloc, along with other traditionally US-aligned countries like Japan, Canada, and Australia, and that other countries like Mexico, South Korea, and Turkey "lean" US
All that would have seemed completely justifiable at most points from 1945 until January 20, 2025. But it seems ludicrous to argue in November 2025 that the EU and the USA are "strongly aligned." And that is why the Trump administration has been so catastrophic diplomatically; it has weakened both the US and Europe drastically as against China.
What is interesting is that Shearing's "US aligned" bloc combined has significantly more combined GDP then either the US or the "China bloc". It does not seem to be unavoidably inevitable that a split of the world economy into blocs would have to be two blocs . . .
#40
Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...
Last post by Tamas - November 26, 2025, 11:55:35 AMToday's beta update has finally fixed the zombie-like levy respawn, and predictably, on the Paradox forum the "omg stop levy rush, game is broken" crowd has been replaced with the "omg make levies respawn faster, game is broken" crowd without missing a beat. Like, literally, the update has been out for what, an hour, and the thread is dominated by that.
Like, literally, the update has been out for what, an hour, and the thread is dominated by that.