Recent posts

#31

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 04:46:56 PM

Ah... so you think, potentially, that the VP's statements about "Maduro still being the president" may be about managing the transition adroitly rather than rejecting Turmp's terms?

That could very well be true, but I feel like Trump is going to randomly let the cat out of the bag relatively soon if that's the case.

Yeah. Basically I think there are two countries involved with their own politics and elites etc to manage.

Even if the US have been cultivating people within the regime (which it sounds like they have), that won't be an overnight change. Especially not if the people with guns in the presidential palace are being provided by a hostile state and have just lost 30 comrades.

In terms of what next I think it's very unlikely we'll see US troops on the ground. Which I think means probably operating within the current regime. If that's the case then I think it could be anything from basically an internal power-player leveraging US anger against Maduro to grab him (while also giving them a fantastic bloody shirt to wave), in which case the US got played, to a transition to a still corrupt, still autocratic regime open to US business. If there are forces in the regime basically willing to align more with what rump wants then I think there'll be a lot of internal forces to neutralise/align, get your own people in place (especially in security positions) etc.

I think it's too soon to tell but in terms of the "what next" the stories about a lot of very high level contacts with the regime and a general lack of interest in the opposition, I think that's at least the US strategy.

[and all Treaties made, or which shall be made, under the Authority of the United States, shall be the supreme Law of the Land; and the Judges in every State shall be bound thereby, any Thing in the Constitution or Laws of any state to the Contrary notwithstanding.]

#32

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 04:44:38 PM

Should be able to win in court:

This Constitution, and the Laws of the United States which shall be made in Pursuance thereof; and all Treaties made, or which shall be made, under the Authority of the United States, shall be the supreme Law of the Land; and the Judges in every State shall be bound thereby, any Thing in the Constitution or Laws of any state to the Contrary notwithstanding.

We have a poor record with treaties though...just ask the Sioux.

And that part always struck me as odd...could we just engage in a treaty that contradicts/abrogates the Constitution with just a simple Senate ratification?

#33

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by grumbler - Today at 04:43:42 PM

I guess they'd take over the airports and control people coming and going using civilian airlines? Maybe?

That worked in the American Revolution (sez Donny).

#34

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by Jacob - Today at 04:38:41 PM

It absolutely matters.

Not to the Trump administration, of course, but it matters.

#35

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 04:37:40 PM

We basically allow the heads of criminal gangs to run their operations from prison.  No reason Maduro couldn't do the same. 

#36

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Crazy_Ivan80 - Today at 04:36:18 PM

Looks like the deal was done before the current events regarding Venezuela, back in December, so it doesn't really say much about what is happening now.

I mean Starmer and Kallas and Macron and others have released incredible insipid statements. We are monitoring the situation. When Trump seizes Greenland the levels of monitoring will reach hitherto unimagined heights.

It annoys me but the only country that didn't sign up to the very bland EU statement on Venezuela was Hungary and the best statements, in my view, on it have come from Le Pen and Bardella

Well, at least Macron is not as bad as Mélenchon or the communists, quite pro-Maduro, namely Mélenchon's LFI. 

Mélenchon would work with Hitler if it meant the end of the perfidious west

#37

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by Zoupa - Today at 04:33:35 PM

Not that it matters, but:

In proceeding this day to the signature of the Convention respecting the cession of the Danish West-Indian Islands to the United States of America, the undersigned Secretary of State of the United States of America, duly authorized by his Government, has the honor to declare that the Government of the United States of America will not object to the Danish Government extending their political and economic interests to the whole of Greenland.

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1917/d881

#38

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by Crazy_Ivan80 - Today at 04:32:14 PM

FWIW former Swedish PM and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt has said that it's likely that the US "will use brute force against Denmark within the coming six months".

Please someone wake me up from this nightmare

better learn to fly drones I guess

#39

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by Jacob - Today at 04:21:19 PM

I'd say that I have read about quite a lot of contacts between the US and both the Venezuelan VP but also others in the regime. I wouldn't dismiss that at this stage - I think it's too soon to tell if there's soemthing there or not - any change of position from within the regime will take time politically, need to be managed etc. I suspect an early sign in the next few months might be if the new Venezuelan readers keep the Cuban security detail or not. I think the first sign to moving towards basically falling into "line" with the US would be removing the men with guns around you provided by a regime absolutely hostile to that.

My understanding is that of the 40 killed in Venezuela, 32 were Cuban security for Maduro.

Ah... so you think, potentially, that the VP's statements about "Maduro still being the president" may be about managing the transition adroitly rather than rejecting Turmp's terms?

That could very well be true, but I feel like Trump is going to randomly let the cat out of the bag relatively soon if that's the case.

#40

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by OttoVonBismarck - Today at 04:16:52 PM

Also if Trump simply declared Greenland part of America, what would that even entail?

For any sort of commercial activity, he would need U.S. companies and some legal structure for them to operate. He can't run that from Truth Social or from the White House by himself, the bones of that process would be subject to judicial review through numerous lawsuits. I can't imagine any private company, other than one simply stood up by a Trump toady, would sign on to such legal ambiguity. Any private company that participated in the Greenland stuff would very likely lose every contract, every business arrangement etc they have with any country in Europe and probably many elsewhere in the world as well, so I very seriously doubt any of the mining majors get involved.