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#31
Off the Record / Re: The Shooting Gallery: Poli...
Last post by Bauer - January 10, 2026, 10:26:59 PMQuote from: grumbler on January 10, 2026, 07:27:34 PMThis entire incident could have been avoided had ICE assigned even one professional to this team of violent thugs, because no professional would have allowed this to escalate to murder.
That is the Crux that of the matter. Real law enforcement is supposed to know how to deescalate and resolve conflict in the best interests of public safety.
ICE / Trump admin doesn't have the best interest of public safety in mind.
#32
Off the Record / Re: (Great Power) War in Our T...
Last post by Bauer - January 10, 2026, 10:21:41 PMI think it's a very low but non zero risk.
But old school power spheres influence seem to be making a comeback.
But old school power spheres influence seem to be making a comeback.
#33
Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta
Last post by Sheilbh - January 10, 2026, 09:47:05 PMQuote from: Zoupa on January 10, 2026, 09:41:12 PMI guess what's good about Trump is he goes back on his word/deals constantly.Saw some reports today that Trump's back to thinking Putin is an obstacle to a Ukraine deal (I think he's right - I don't think Russia wants a deal). There's already the US pressure on Indian tariffs over India buying Russian oil and now a couple of seizures of shadow fleet ships - apparently they might try to put more pressure on Putin.
Now obviously it would only take another phone call with Putin to change that - followed by months of European diplomacy pretending to go along with Trump and position Putin as the problem.
It's exhausting. But as you say ultimately what he says is kind of only ever temporarily meaningful.
#34
Off the Record / Re: (Great Power) War in Our T...
Last post by Sheilbh - January 10, 2026, 09:42:01 PMI think fairly low risk. I think far, far less chance of it than during the Cold War or pre-WW1.
I think the global situation is looser and more flexible than that. I actually think the risk has declined since Trump took office and came to power. I think there was far more chance of a Cold War or Guns of August style escalation with no off-path under Biden - Adam Tooze has written about his fear that the US was approaching a point of locking in conflcit with China at one point (I can't remember when exactly) and speaking to senior people in the Administration precisely about that "Guns of August" risk.
I can't really see Russia v China any time soon. Honestly the comparison that keeps coming to my mind there is the British Empire and the Americans.
I don't think the EU is a great power and I don't think it'll become one. I hope I'm proven wrong but I see no evidence that at this point - a diverse multi-state Europe is not going to suddenly become a homogenous, effective superstate that can compete with Russia, China or the US (caveat: Europe advances through crisis - counter to that: that's fine but rearmament has a run-in time). I'd note that the main focus in Brussels at the minute is, in fact, that France and Germany are increasingly on opposite sides on the big decisions - I'm not sure that relationship is still the engine, but it is important and it's been dysfunctional for at least a decade (I'd argue since the crash and Eurozone crisis).
I don't think the US is likely to go to war with Russia or China over any of the areas Russia or China are likely to target. Not under the current administratio and I think Biden was a last gasp of that America. I think maybe the one to watch is the Middle East - especially if there is a revolution in Iran.
I think the global situation is looser and more flexible than that. I actually think the risk has declined since Trump took office and came to power. I think there was far more chance of a Cold War or Guns of August style escalation with no off-path under Biden - Adam Tooze has written about his fear that the US was approaching a point of locking in conflcit with China at one point (I can't remember when exactly) and speaking to senior people in the Administration precisely about that "Guns of August" risk.
I can't really see Russia v China any time soon. Honestly the comparison that keeps coming to my mind there is the British Empire and the Americans.
I don't think the EU is a great power and I don't think it'll become one. I hope I'm proven wrong but I see no evidence that at this point - a diverse multi-state Europe is not going to suddenly become a homogenous, effective superstate that can compete with Russia, China or the US (caveat: Europe advances through crisis - counter to that: that's fine but rearmament has a run-in time). I'd note that the main focus in Brussels at the minute is, in fact, that France and Germany are increasingly on opposite sides on the big decisions - I'm not sure that relationship is still the engine, but it is important and it's been dysfunctional for at least a decade (I'd argue since the crash and Eurozone crisis).
I don't think the US is likely to go to war with Russia or China over any of the areas Russia or China are likely to target. Not under the current administratio and I think Biden was a last gasp of that America. I think maybe the one to watch is the Middle East - especially if there is a revolution in Iran.
#35
Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta
Last post by Zoupa - January 10, 2026, 09:41:12 PMI guess what's good about Trump is he goes back on his word/deals constantly.
#36
Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta
Last post by Razgovory - January 10, 2026, 09:24:46 PMQuote from: Jacob on January 10, 2026, 08:45:03 PMQuote from: Razgovory on January 10, 2026, 07:19:11 PMI'm scared that he made a similar deal with China vis-a-vie Taiwan.
The question is, I suppose, what he expects to be getting in return.
Trump gets Venezuela and Greenland and Chinese and Russian don't object, Russia gets Ukraine and the US and China don't object, China gets Taiwan and the US and Russia don't object. They are just dividing the world up.
#37
Off the Record / Re: (Great Power) War in Our T...
Last post by Zoupa - January 10, 2026, 09:12:26 PMI voted 50-50. I have no idea really.
I could see China turning on russia eventually.
I could see the EU vs russia if they try shit in the Baltics.
I don't think the US will go for Greenland militarily.
I don't think the US or anyone else would intervene militarily if China went for Taiwan.
I could see China turning on russia eventually.
I could see the EU vs russia if they try shit in the Baltics.
I don't think the US will go for Greenland militarily.
I don't think the US or anyone else would intervene militarily if China went for Taiwan.
#38
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by Jacob - January 10, 2026, 08:57:12 PMThe Supreme Court has apparently ruled (6-3) that Trump cannot deploy the National Guard to Chicago to support ICE: https://thedailyadda.com/2026/01/10/trump-rages-after-supreme-court-hands-him-6-3-loss/
#39
Off the Record / Re: The Shooting Gallery: Poli...
Last post by Zoupa - January 10, 2026, 08:48:13 PMQuote from: Legbiter on January 10, 2026, 08:36:08 PMQuote from: Zoupa on January 10, 2026, 08:07:15 PMApparently the shooter has been with CBP/DHS/ICE for over 20 years. It makes his reaction even more baffling as I imagine he would have had this type of interaction many times before.
Wild.
Anyway if the Americans are so based and free then why are they tolerating masked paramilitaries shoving guns into people's faces and demanding to see loicense?
Racism, mostly.
#40
Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta
Last post by Jacob - January 10, 2026, 08:45:03 PMQuote from: Razgovory on January 10, 2026, 07:19:11 PMI'm scared that he made a similar deal with China vis-a-vie Taiwan.
The question is, I suppose, what he expects to be getting in return.