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#31

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 02:05:48 PM

Nov 21 from Caixin

By the end of September, Chinese mills had produced 746 million tons of crude steel, down 2.9% from a year earlier. But domestic consumption slumped 5.7% to just under 649 million tons, a much steeper decline. The imbalance sent a clear message: in the world's largest steel-producing nation, the core problem isn't output. It's overcapacity, with too few buyers at home to absorb what's being produced.

That demand shortfall is reverberating through the economy. Steel prices have slid to multi-year lows — with the China Steel Price Index briefly dipping below 90 in June, the lowest since 2017. Industry executives, analysts, and government officials now say a structural shift is underway: from decades of expansion to a difficult period of contraction and consolidation.

. . .

To fill the widening gap, Chinese steelmakers are aggressively pivoting to export markets. In 2024, outbound shipments surged to 110 million tons, up 22.7% from the year before. The momentum continued into 2025, with 87.96 million tons exported in the first nine months, a 9.2% year-on-year increase. Analysts expect the full-year figure could reach 130 million tons, nearing an all-time high.

But volume has come at the cost of value. The average price of Chinese steel exports dropped 19.3% in 2024 to $755.40 per ton. This year, prices fell another 9.5%. Many steelmakers are caught in a high-stakes race to preserve market share overseas — even if it means selling at razor-thin margins or below cost. "Domestic demand is weak, foreign markets are better," one coastal mill executive told Caixin. "So we're all focused on expanding abroad."

. . .

With trade tensions simmering and environmental targets looming, experts say China's steel exports are approaching a ceiling — already accounting for around 30% of global trade. Over the next five years, direct exports may fall by half, according to Jiangsu Steel Association President Chen Hongbing. That would push China's apparent steel consumption down from more than 1 billion tons today to around 750 million — a contraction that would reshape not just an industry, but a cornerstone of China's post-reform economy

Not sustainable.

And steel is one example among many.

#32

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 02:05:09 PM

My regional understanding of Walla is that when used twice, it means "place of many waters". 

#33

Off the Record / Re: Quo Vadis GOP?

Last post by Razgovory - Today at 02:05:03 PM

She was Qanon.  The break with Trump was over the Epstein files.  She was a true believer in this, so didn't understand that Trump's promise to release the Epstein files was just a cynical manipulation of the credulous.  I don't know if she came to the conclusion that the Qanon stuff was a fraud or that Trump was a fraud.  Either way, reality seems to have broken her.

#34

Off the Record / Re: Quo Vadis GOP?

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 02:00:52 PM

Inner circle?  I don't think she was ever that.  More like "useful idiot".

#35

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by Razgovory - Today at 01:57:40 PM

They aren't our allies. They voted for Trump last time. Friendship over.

Lot of people disagree.  Especially in Europe.  I can't get help but think that J.K. Rowling would get a pass if she wore a hijab.

#36

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by Bauer - Today at 01:43:49 PM

Yeah I haven't heard anything about that either.

#37

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by HisMajestyBOB - Today at 01:21:00 PM

A number of major MAGA and America First influencers and social media accounts have been exposed as being based in Russia and elsewhere overseas.

Not at all surprised. Russia is the greatest threat to Democracy and liberalism there is, and if we want either to still be there for our children, our leaders need to stop pussyfooting around. Russia delenda est.

#38

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by HVC - Today at 01:15:36 PM

A bunch of militantly proisrael site were also based out of india of all places.

#39

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Jacob - Today at 01:10:41 PM

A number of major MAGA and America First influencers and social media accounts have been exposed as being based in Russia and elsewhere overseas.

Another link on the same story.

#40

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Jacob - Today at 01:02:12 PM

Makes sense