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#21
Off the Record / Re: The EU thread
Last post by Zoupa - December 12, 2025, 05:18:33 PMQuote from: Tamas on December 12, 2025, 04:37:00 PMYeah one remarkable thing for me during the Ukrainian Kursk incursion was the seeming complete passivity of the local Russian population. The Ukrainian civilians tried to resist initially before being discouraged by the Russians but I didn't see any such reports from the Russian peasants.
russians have this weird national conception, or lack thereof. Borders don't really mean anything for the rusky mir. If somehow in a peace deal Ukraine got Kursk and Belgorod, there'd be very little reaction from the population in the rest of russia. There'd be no civil resistance in the new Ukrainian regions. The population is incredibly depoliticized, by design.
#22
Off the Record / Re: The EU thread
Last post by Tonitrus - December 12, 2025, 04:53:22 PMI would think a civil war would require some pretty motivated sections/factions among the population. The only segment of the population that I see would likely be highly motivated are those that are even more extreme than Putin and the current government. Given that most of them are probably already in/adjacent to the security apparatuses, I tend to think that a "civil war" would limited to those echelons of power for control of said apparatuses.
How messy that would turn out to be would depend on how overlapped they are with the military, or with each other, but my impression is that there are plenty of separate Russian security organizations around for things to get slightly messy.
I wonder if Putin has a posthumous "succession plan" (which could be easily ignored, of course), or if he is ok with everything rolling into chaos when he croaks.
How messy that would turn out to be would depend on how overlapped they are with the military, or with each other, but my impression is that there are plenty of separate Russian security organizations around for things to get slightly messy.
I wonder if Putin has a posthumous "succession plan" (which could be easily ignored, of course), or if he is ok with everything rolling into chaos when he croaks.
#23
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by crazy canuck - December 12, 2025, 04:37:49 PMQuote from: Tamas on December 12, 2025, 03:55:15 PMWell, for one thing, the Guardian has been criticising the British government's silence on the US policy document, so there is that. Also apart from Mertz, no other European reaction has breached my bubble.
Shortly after the US policy document was released, the President of the European Council said ""We need to focus on building a Europe that must understand that the relationships between allies and Post World War II allies have changed."
#24
Off the Record / Re: The EU thread
Last post by Tamas - December 12, 2025, 04:37:00 PMYeah one remarkable thing for me during the Ukrainian Kursk incursion was the seeming complete passivity of the local Russian population. The Ukrainian civilians tried to resist initially before being discouraged by the Russians but I didn't see any such reports from the Russian peasants.
#25
Off the Record / Re: Youtube Recommendations
Last post by Jacob - December 12, 2025, 04:36:47 PMFun
... but as with most of these videos, I find the talking head "reacting" guy kind of vacuous, but the material he shows on Toronto slang fascinating.
I especially liked the Japanese dude giving Toronto slang lessons
... but as with most of these videos, I find the talking head "reacting" guy kind of vacuous, but the material he shows on Toronto slang fascinating.
I especially liked the Japanese dude giving Toronto slang lessons
#26
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by Tamas - December 12, 2025, 04:33:59 PMOk that's reasonable.
#27
Off the Record / Re: The EU thread
Last post by Tonitrus - December 12, 2025, 04:28:43 PMA major civil war for Russia would also be bad in other ways...it may give China the idea that it is their chance to "protect" much of the Russian far east.
#28
Off the Record / Re: The EU thread
Last post by Tonitrus - December 12, 2025, 04:25:44 PMUnfortunately, I think we have a fair bit of those same worries from Putin simply dying.
Will some other gangster-apparatchik take over with a smooth transition of the security-state control? Or will some anti-Anglo/Z-fanatic take over and drop a nuke on London to try and cow Europe?
I think wide-scale civil war in Russia is extremely remote (though these things can surprise one), the population seems far too apathetic and inclined to just try and keep their heads down. I think that makes it more likely that there would just be lots of arrests/window-tripping at the higher levels until someone comes out on top to take over the security services that hold the edifice together.
But thinking of these scenarios kind of makes the fall of the SU appear relatively orderly.
Will some other gangster-apparatchik take over with a smooth transition of the security-state control? Or will some anti-Anglo/Z-fanatic take over and drop a nuke on London to try and cow Europe?
I think wide-scale civil war in Russia is extremely remote (though these things can surprise one), the population seems far too apathetic and inclined to just try and keep their heads down. I think that makes it more likely that there would just be lots of arrests/window-tripping at the higher levels until someone comes out on top to take over the security services that hold the edifice together.
But thinking of these scenarios kind of makes the fall of the SU appear relatively orderly.
#29
Off the Record / Re: The EU thread
Last post by Tamas - December 12, 2025, 04:20:03 PMI sometimes think there are far more ways in which the conclusion to the Russia story is a very grim, quite possibly nuclear winter-y world than not.
If Russia loses it will be like Germany after WW1. I think if there is any chance of an inward-looking regime to emerge they must get international support. Becuaee we don't want the 21st century equivalent of nazism with 6000 nukes.
Or they just collapse and then you have civil war with 6000 nukes.
Or they win this war and it will result in a regime that has mortal outside danger as its only remaining legitimation, which much like in Orbán's case will require constant escalation to be maintained.
It's very hard to see a scenario where they shed all their baggage and joon the cilviised world.
If Russia loses it will be like Germany after WW1. I think if there is any chance of an inward-looking regime to emerge they must get international support. Becuaee we don't want the 21st century equivalent of nazism with 6000 nukes.
Or they just collapse and then you have civil war with 6000 nukes.
Or they win this war and it will result in a regime that has mortal outside danger as its only remaining legitimation, which much like in Orbán's case will require constant escalation to be maintained.
It's very hard to see a scenario where they shed all their baggage and joon the cilviised world.
#30
Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic
Last post by Tonitrus - December 12, 2025, 04:20:03 PMQuote from: Valmy on December 12, 2025, 03:15:24 PMQuote from: Jacob on December 12, 2025, 02:15:27 PMQuote from: Valmy on December 12, 2025, 01:02:08 PMMy mother owns some of her family's land they took from native Americans during the Oklahoma land run. I manage it now. Which mostly consists of me contacting farmers and saying "hey farmer would you please farm my land? We will charge you basically nothing."
And then they are like "I don't know...farming basically free land is still kind of risky." Ah agriculture.
Does it matter to you whether it's farmed or not if they're not paying you much anyways?
Yes it is actually kind of important. And while it doesn't cost a ton to hold on to, it does cost something. Besides I want to help out the little guy and keep that land out of the hands of big Ag...which is probably a fruitless effort but I still try.
And it is actually not that hard to find farmers who want to farm it. I was kind of making a joke about how dour and generally negative these farmers are. What makes it hard, to the extent it is, is I live all the way down here in Texas, a ten hour drive away from the community in question. If I knew all these people and lived up there it would probably be super easy.
For the longest times, my dad/aunt had shared ownership of a large farm property in his hometown. But they were doing the "get paid by Uncle Sam to not grow anything" program. Though even that still required a significant expense to control invasive plants/weeds etc. It's been sold since to a local area farming family.