Recent posts

#21

Off the Record / Re: Baseball

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 10:28:01 AM

> Our magnificent Supreme Court has made that more difficult

No, it's our magnificent Congress, who refuse to even entertain the idea of shutting down sports books in Nevada.

Their power to do so was undermined by Murphy v. NCAA (2018), which is also the decision that opened up the floodgates to ubiquitous sports betting.

Congress does retain the power to set up and enforce its own regulatory scheme but that doesn't seem a realistic possibility in the current political environment. Perhaps this scandal will shock the politicians into action, but I'm not counting on it.

#22

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Admiral Yi - Today at 10:23:31 AM

At risk of kicking the bee's nest, I'd suggest that the dispute over NATO relationships isn't about rationality; but about different priorities over principles.  Both sides are making rationally based arguments, but one side puts a higher value on reciprocity; the other on solidarity. That's also the source I think of the tension; the "Yuro side" perceives the "Yank side" critique as undermining solidarity; the Yank side sees the Yuros as endorsing unfairness.

As I said earlier, the time for that debate was *before* the Yuros promised to raise their contributions.

#23

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Admiral Yi - Today at 10:21:06 AM

I recently learned that Justice Roger Taney of Dred Scott fame voted in favor of the slaves in the Amistad case.

#24

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 10:20:56 AM

At risk of kicking the bee's nest, I'd suggest that the dispute over NATO relationships isn't about rationality; but about different priorities over principles.  Both sides are making rationally based arguments, but one side puts a higher value on reciprocity; the other on solidarity. That's also the source I think of the tension; the "Yuro side" perceives the "Yank side" critique as undermining solidarity; the Yank side sees the Yuros as endorsing unfairness.

#25

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Admiral Yi - Today at 10:05:53 AM

My understanding comes from the economics of competition. If you assume two firms in an oligopoly market, if both set production simultaneously (Cornot), the optimal strategy ends with both producing the same.  If one acts first (Stackleberg) but knows the other will respond, the leader can secure a higher quantity.  The follower will accept less because the price impact of producing more will result in net less profit.  It's an interesting result in the economics of information because it arguably shows that having more information gives a worse result.

The scenario assumes fixed and unchanging supply and demand conditions over time and assumes a strict sequence in selection that can't be changed once made.  So it doesn't apply to a dynamic diplomatic situation.

I had it wrong. Forget Stackleberg, forget game theory.  Rational self interest can lead to unfairness.  Full stop.

#26

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Admiral Yi - Today at 09:58:49 AM

Only college sports I have watched is Ivy League football, which admittedly even in my ignorance didn't seem a great standard.

Granted, the Lions were particularly not great. IIRC they had losing seasons every single year I was over there. But since actual NFL football was simply prohibitive, it was the best thing I had available. Fond memories.

the Ivy League was originally the IV League because it had only four teams.

#27

Gaming HQ / Re: Victoria 3

Last post by Syt - Today at 09:37:29 AM

Heads up: next patch will break pretty much all mods.

https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/developer-diary/victoria-3-dev-diary-164-marvelous-modding-monday.1868975/

However, it will make it easier to do partial overrides/maintain compatibility as they add a similar modding functions as EU5:

Code Select Expand

INJECT:key - this mode tries to inject the script into an existing entry. Errors if the respective entry does not exist.
REPLACE:key - this mode replaces an existing entry with a new one. Errors if the respective entry does not exist.


TRY_INJECT:key same as INJECT: but does not error if the entry does not exist.
TRY_REPLACE:key same as REPLACE: but does not error if the entry does not exist.


REPLACE_OR_CREATE:key = { } # Same as REPLACE: but if the entry does not exist, it will create it
INJECT_OR_CREATE:key = { } # Same as INJECT: but if the entry does not exist, it will create it

#28

Off the Record / Re: Baseball

Last post by Baron von Schtinkenbutt - Today at 09:17:00 AM

> Our magnificent Supreme Court has made that more difficult

No, it's our magnificent Congress, who refuse to even entertain the idea of shutting down sports books in Nevada.

#29

Off the Record / Re: Baseball

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 08:47:46 AM

The underlying problem is that MLB's own promotion of gambling on and in its games has become ubiquitous. Players are constantly interacting with sports gamblers because the gambling companies and MLB have converted large swaths of the fan base into gamblers and actively encourage fans to gamble.

And of course many players gamble themselves on their own time - maybe they start by confining themselves to other sports. But they know baseball best, so what could be wrong about betting on another, out of town game?  And come to think on it, why can't I bet on my own teams game if a I bet on my own side?  (the Rose defense).  And from there it's not a huge step to say - one ball vs one strike - what difference does it make? I don't know what Clase's motives really were, but it may be as simple as he didn't think it was any big deal.  And with official MLB games constantly televising updated betting crawlers, why would he?

Baseball went through this before and it almost killed the game.  The Landis rule was harsh but it had the virtue of being clear and understandable.  No gambling.  No fucking gambling in the game.   Our magnificent Supreme Court has made that more difficult but MLB could bring clarity through its own bright line rule.  Instead it went the other way and chased the money.

#30

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 08:37:33 AM

Schumer and all eight senators who voted with the GOP on this should be primaried.

I believe none of the 8 who are running are up for election in 2026.  Not a coincidence.