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#21

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Tonitrus - December 12, 2025, 07:15:22 PM

Also I don't think our job is to worry about what happens inside russian borders once they lose or Putin dies or whatever. Our job is to make sure Ukraine wins. What happens inside russia is for russians to figure out. It's not like we did anything when Prigozin was 100 miles from Moscow.

At least except or insofar as how those two things might be connected.

That said, excluding outside direct intervention, I don't see how Ukraine wins (if defined as a return to 2022/2014 borders) except from internal Russian disruption.  And a strong risk that a new government might feel a need to intensify the war or take more desperate measures to accelerate things.

Right now, the Russia/Ukraine war feels an imperfect analogy of the American Civil War might apply...in the sense of the power/population imbalance (certainly not any of the moral/slavery elements). Russia got off to an energetic and sloppy start, got their nose bloodied a lot, and then switched to a slow, methodical ramping up of manpower.  And realizing that they throwing all their armor/tanks was ineffective, went to matching and exceeding Ukraine's capabilities in small drone warfare. 

The Kursk offensive was a king of Gettysburg...and I am not sure if Russia would still be in the Peninsula campaign or slogging through the equivalent of Grant's Overland campaign...and we certainly haven't seen a Battle of Atlanta yet.  But I fear it may be coming.

#22

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Tonitrus - December 12, 2025, 07:05:07 PM

Also I don't think our job is to worry about what happens inside russian borders once they lose or Putin dies or whatever. Our job is to make sure Ukraine wins. What happens inside russia is for russians to figure out. It's not like we did anything when Prigozin was 100 miles from Moscow.

I generally agree. That said, I reckon there are two motivations for meddling in a post-Putin Russian collapse:

• Let's try to minimize the risk of nukes ending up going bad places.
• There's a way for my particular clique to make a bunch of money.

I expect the appetite for "let us try to help make a better Russia for Russians via democracy and economic growth" to be fairly low.

Agreed...certainly far lower than after the fall of the USSR.

#23

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by viper37 - December 12, 2025, 06:19:27 PM

The Beaverton strikes again!

Progressive Conservative joins Progressive Conservative party

OTTAWA – In a stunning move, progressive conservative MP Michael Ma crossed the floor Thursday to the progressive conservative Liberal Party, just a few weeks after similar minded progressive conservative Conservative MP Chris d'Entremont did the same.

#24

Gaming HQ / Star Wars Fate of the Old Repu...

Last post by viper37 - December 12, 2025, 05:48:52 PM

See ya in 2030!

#25

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Jacob - December 12, 2025, 05:29:59 PM

Also I don't think our job is to worry about what happens inside russian borders once they lose or Putin dies or whatever. Our job is to make sure Ukraine wins. What happens inside russia is for russians to figure out. It's not like we did anything when Prigozin was 100 miles from Moscow.

I generally agree. That said, I reckon there are two motivations for meddling in a post-Putin Russian collapse:

• Let's try to minimize the risk of nukes ending up going bad places.
• There's a way for my particular clique to make a bunch of money.

I expect the appetite for "let us try to help make a better Russia for Russians via democracy and economic growth" to be fairly low.

#26

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Zoupa - December 12, 2025, 05:22:39 PM

Also I don't think our job is to worry about what happens inside russian borders once they lose or Putin dies or whatever. Our job is to make sure Ukraine wins. What happens inside russia is for russians to figure out. It's not like we did anything when Prigozin was 100 miles from Moscow.

#27

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Tamas - December 12, 2025, 05:22:24 PM

I would think a civil war would require some pretty motivated sections/factions among the population.  The only segment of the population that I see would likely be highly motivated are those that are even more extreme than Putin and the current government.  Given that most of them are probably already in/adjacent to the security apparatuses, I tend to think that a "civil war" would limited to those echelons of power for control of said apparatuses.

How messy that would turn out to be would depend on how overlapped they are with the military, or with each other, but my impression is that there are plenty of separate Russian security organizations around for things to get slightly messy.

I wonder if Putin has a posthumous "succession plan" (which could be easily ignored, of course), or if he is ok with everything rolling into chaos when he croaks.

A convincing argument I have heard from analysts is that de ody like Putin would not name an heir because a clear heir is also a potential rival, and also a clear succession means it is safer for the elites to get rid of him.

#28

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Zoupa - December 12, 2025, 05:18:33 PM

Yeah one remarkable thing for me during the Ukrainian Kursk incursion was the seeming complete passivity of the local Russian population. The Ukrainian civilians tried to resist initially before being discouraged by the Russians but I didn't see any such reports from the Russian peasants.

russians have this weird national conception, or lack thereof. Borders don't really mean anything for the rusky mir. If somehow in a peace deal Ukraine got Kursk and Belgorod, there'd be very little reaction from the population in the rest of russia. There'd be no civil resistance in the new Ukrainian regions. The population is incredibly depoliticized, by design.

#29

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Tonitrus - December 12, 2025, 04:53:22 PM

I would think a civil war would require some pretty motivated sections/factions among the population.  The only segment of the population that I see would likely be highly motivated are those that are even more extreme than Putin and the current government.  Given that most of them are probably already in/adjacent to the security apparatuses, I tend to think that a "civil war" would limited to those echelons of power for control of said apparatuses.

How messy that would turn out to be would depend on how overlapped they are with the military, or with each other, but my impression is that there are plenty of separate Russian security organizations around for things to get slightly messy.

I wonder if Putin has a posthumous "succession plan" (which could be easily ignored, of course), or if he is ok with everything rolling into chaos when he croaks.

#30

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by crazy canuck - December 12, 2025, 04:37:49 PM

Well, for one thing, the Guardian has been criticising the British government's silence on the US policy document, so there is that. Also apart from Mertz, no other European reaction has breached my bubble.

Shortly after the US policy document was released, the President of the European Council said ""We need to focus on building a Europe that must understand that the relationships between allies and Post World War II allies have changed."