Quote from: The Minsky Moment on Today at 02:47:48 AMI think that's a mirage.On these I don't agree.
Russia has agency in the Ukraine in the sense that they can and have chosen to burn the lives of hundreds of thousands of men to occupy some extra square miles of dirt and wrecked urban infrastructure, and manifest their frustrations in mass civilian atrocities. But they utterly failed to impose their will on a smaller, weaker, and political fragile nation. Being willing and able to do utterly stupid and counterproductive things isn't a sign of agency.
The Middle Eastern policy is shambles; they put their chips on Assad and went bust. They are dicking around pointlessly in Libya. They are basically meaningless in Africa; a handful of the more unsavory dictators have used some of their pseudo-mercs to bully the locals. No one takes them seriously compared to China.
QuoteIn a hard-edged, hard power multipolar world, Russia is a Chinese vassal, transferring oil at below market prices in return for some diplo cover and desperately needed imports. Russia is leaning hard on China to make its play for some continuing relevance in the West as Chinese commercial interests tighten their grasp on the resources of Russia's far eastern provinces.I agree. But I think there's a question of timelines. At a very basic level from what I've read China's leaders were shocked at Russia invasion as they had not been forewarned even at relatively recent senior meetings. I don't tink that's the behaviour of a vassal back in 2022 - but I think since then Russian dependency on China is increasing incrementally. I think it's something they're very aware of but that there's a generational divide with Putin and his cohort being totally focused on Ukraine even at the expense of future weakness/dependence on China while I think the generation who will take over from them are more alarmed at the implications. But I think that's because we're not there yet.
Quote"Europe" may be politically dysfunctional at the level of unified diplomatic presence but whether looked at collectively or at the larger individual states, they embody centers of manufacturing prowess, technical competence, significant players in global commerce and finance, and an affluent consumer market. Russia has none of these things. It can play the nuclear blackmail card, which has already been overplayed.I agree with a lot of this - especially actually the technical competence. Europe does not have global competitors in the digital area generally - Breton's point was correct. But there's lots of technical and technological areas, especialy around manufacturing, where Europe absolutely has world leading companies and centres.
Quote"What we once called the normative West no longer exists in this form," Merz said at an event for employers in Berlin on Tuesday. "At best, it is still a geographical designation, but no longer a normative bond that holds us together."
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on Today at 11:26:24 AMTrump won't invade Venezuela, he has had a couple of consistent political positions since the 1980s:
1. Hatred of international trade, as a real estate investor he has never understood it and intrinsically thinks trade is just a way for America to lose money
2. Obsession with the concept that alliances are a form of being taken advantage of by the other country
3. Dislike of deploying the U.S. military overseas
Trump enjoys the uses of the military which mirror how he engages with the world--performative, off the cuff, Tweet format thinking and acting. This will look like drone / bombing strikes and possibly up to and including small special forces raids and naval incursions into Venezuelan waters. It will never look like the massive build up and invasion of Iraq in 2003.
If this sort of harassment fails to destabilize Maduro's regime to the point of him fleeing or losing support of the military, Trump will just pretend all of this never happened and move on to something else.
Quote from: Josquius on Today at 11:05:51 AMIt's pretty clear fuck the youngism with the fonts.
Serif fonts are easier to read on paper.
Sans serifs fonts are easier to read on screens.
This is typography 101.
Yet another area where maga are letting some pathetic culture war nonsense that means nothing to anyone else reduce the efficiency of government.
Quote from: Jacob on Today at 01:18:48 AMI don't have any insight into whether a quick invasion of a Latin American country is part of the current US administration's roadmap. It would be on brand, I suppose.
I mean, I do think Trump is a moral coward who is unwilling to make the kind decisions and take responsibility for the consequences that starting a war requires from a leader. He's a bully, not a fighter. But he might be talked into it, especially as senility sets in.
For sake of argument, let's say the current US administration decides it does want one of its traditional Latin American regime change wars - how will it play in the US? Will Trump be able to rally patriotic fervour?
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