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#1

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Jacob - Today at 07:38:02 PM

Short of moving tectonic plates around, I don't see how one permanently ends Iran's ability to disrupt the strait.

And with Rubio and Co. mulling over a fanciful anabasis to secure and remove massive amounts of nuclear material from multiple sites in the interior of the country, I think we can count out the elimination of the Iran nuclear program as a viable war objective.

If genuine regime change were a US aim - and I doubt it is or ever was - the US has not pursued the means to achieve that and seem very unlikely to do so.

Those to me are the reasonable sounding war aims - whether stated explicitly or implicitly. Occasionally Trump seems to state some of them as being the goal, but it never quite sticks. I think you're right, it doesn't seem like the US has a viable path to achieving those goals.

The facts are as they appear - the US is spending billions of dollars and squandering valuable munitions so that the SecDef can self-climax over watching his cool toys hit their targets and so that the WH media team can impress late maturing 12 year olds with their super-cool memes.

If those are the goals, then I suppose the US really is winning - or Trump and his backers are.

I suppose that if the goal of the war is more of an Orwellian 1984 war that's not made for traditional forms of winning, but which is important for propaganda purposes it's also worth understanding what the winning and losing definitions look like through that lens.

Winning for Trump expending a reasonable amount of US lives and treasure without losing face, it means opportunities to personal and clique profit, it means opportunities for other leaders to treat him like a "big powerful man", it means Iranian and domestic responses that play into any anti-democratic or post-presidential designs he may have to retain power, and all of that without enough loss in domestic support to threaten his position (both in terms of appropriately distributed voters, and in terms of special interest groups that help him maintain influence888888).

Losing for Trump means enough set-backs that make him look like "a loser" in his own eyes and in the eyes of those whose respect he craves, especially if forced to a settlement of some sort that he dislikes. It also means enough of a drop in domestic support, both in terms of voters, but especially among the groupings that he would be relying on to maintain power whether via anti-democratic shenanigans, or as a "grand old man" of the GOP post-presidency.

If those are Trump's war aims, he may well be able to bring home a victory. It'll look as a loss for the US though, because those aren't really national war aims but personal war aims. Then again, that's very on brand for Trump - winning by making the US lose.

#2

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 07:04:30 PM

Interesting to see suggestions that as well as permitting some Chinese vessels through that Iran is considering allowing tankers through if the sale is denominated in RMB. Presumably trying to destabilise the petrodollar?

Edit: US has reportedly bombed Kharg island. I'd expect Iran to escalate in turn - possibly attacking energy infrastructure in Gulf states? Or maybe the Houthis entering the fray?

#3

Off the Record / Re: The Miscellaneous Sports T...

Last post by Grey Fox - Today at 07:02:43 PM

Let's go Canada!

#4

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Jacob - Today at 07:00:05 PM

Sicilian Expedition levels of hubris.

Depends on what they're going to do, I suppose.

Beef up security on US bases in the region? Seems reasonable.

Some sort of landing in Iran to achieve a crucial objective before withdrawing? Potentially audacious, and potentially not crazy.

Taking and holding the Iranian coast to prevent attacks on Hormuz shipping? They might need a little more than 2 200 marines to pull that off for any length of time.

Thin point of the wedge for taking and holding the Iranian coast to prevent attacks on Hormuz shipping? I guess we should look out for more substantial assets being put into position.

#5

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Tamas - Today at 06:30:49 PM

So husbands are likely to be at least a bit older than their wives while men have noticeably shorter average lifespans than women, I believe.

So wouldn't just these two facts naturally result in the statical phenomenon in the study?

#6

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Sophie Scholl - Today at 05:42:32 PM

There is no mass migration movement from North to South.  There is however a massive interest in Americans gaining another citizenship.  Go figure which country is in decline. 

Speaking of: Any Canadians want to adopt me?   

#7

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Legbiter - Today at 05:35:05 PM

So Trump is apparently about to make a speech where he'll say that Iran is just about to surrender?

2200 Marines are being deployed to Iran, they're on ships sailing to Iran right now. Maybe this is related?

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603131206

Sicilian Expedition levels of hubris.

#8

Off the Record / Re: TV/Movies Megathread

Last post by Syt - Today at 05:01:01 PM

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

God, I tried watching that. It may be my age showing, but I gave up. There was just too much AI and CGI. 

That's fair. I've kinda made my peace with that for the most part. I find it on the level of some of the bad matte paintings or shitty day for night filter scenes that used to pull me out of movies back in the day.

#9

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by viper37 - Today at 04:28:14 PM

You may want to worry more about your declining country up north

There is no mass migration movement from North to South.  There is however a massive interest in Americans gaining another citizenship.  Go figure which country is in decline.   

#10

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by viper37 - Today at 04:24:21 PM

So Trump is apparently about to make a speech where he'll say that Iran is just about to surrender?

2200 Marines are being deployed to Iran, they're on ships sailing to Iran right now. Maybe this is related?

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603131206