Recent posts

#1

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by celedhring - Today at 05:15:41 AM

Spain has drawn the Eye of Sauron.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to halt all trade with Spain, after the country barred the US from using its military bases as part of its operation in Iran.

In comments at the White House, Trump said Spain had been "terrible" and suggested "we're going to cut off all trade". "We don't want anything to do with Spain," he told reporters.

Can someone give me TLDR on Spanish politics. I pay more attention to weather forecasts and the menu when over there.

It was virtue signalling that has spectacularly escalated.

The Spanish gov is inmersed in a quagmire of corruption, plus the lack of an actual majority to govern, and is trailing in the polls by quite a big margin. But Spanish public opinion has always been very anti-Middle East excursions - our deployments in Irak were wildly unpopular - so he saw it as a way to score points.

Note that I think the attacks are an awful idea, but this is more a case of doing the right thing for the wrong reasons.

#2

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Duque de Bragança - Today at 05:06:31 AM

And German chancellor Merz took Trumps's side in this. He really has no political instinct.   

He is also going to stop trading with Spain?

End of Germans in Ibiza?
Unpossible!

#3

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by jimmy olsen - Today at 04:26:21 AM

Actually...

https://oc-media.org/azerbaijani-troops-reportedly-deployed-to-iranian-border-as-conflict-rages/

#4

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by jimmy olsen - Today at 04:24:48 AM

I had coffee today with a friend whose family fled Iran shortly after the Revolution, when he was a young boy.  The family left to avoid the forced conversions that were occurring (they are Zoroastrians). His view was that although he was happy an evil man was killed, he fears the country will explode into both sectarian and nationalist violence that will make the break up of Yugoslavia look like a tea party.

Yugoslavia 1990 - Largest ethnic group, Serbs = 36%
Persia 2026 - Largest ethnic group, Persians = 61%

I think the outcome would end up quite different. Azeris are by far the largest minority though, so I guess if Azerbijian intervened they might be able to carve off some border areas?

#5

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by jimmy olsen - Today at 04:13:29 AM

Trump and his various spokespeople have not "ruled out" boots on the ground, apparently.

What do you all think the chances are of an American deployment on Iranian soil? Whether limited or substantial?

Literally insane. The only way troops on the ground would have been plausible if they enacted the draft the moment Trump was inaugurated.
You'd need 2 million troops to occupy a country with the size, terrain and population of Iran. Unless the killbots are way more advanced than we've been led to believe, it can't work.

#6

Off the Record / Re: Facebook Follies of Friend...

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 03:59:20 AM

If only the Republican cells could go back to sleep.

It's one of the things they keep telling us to do. 

#7

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Valmy - Today at 03:46:14 AM

Since when is being merciless in war something to brag about? Jesus fucking christ.

We are being led by try hard edgelords.

#8

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by celedhring - Today at 03:38:10 AM

Since when is being merciless in war something to brag about? Jesus fucking christ.

#9

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Richard Hakluyt - Today at 03:22:20 AM

If the target was regime change then it makes no sense to encourage the Kurds, which will increase the chances of a long and bloody civil war. It will also annoy the Turks who may well enter Iran just as they did in Syria. The problem with the likely ensuing chaos, apart from the misery inflicted on close to 100m people, is that a long term military presence in the Gulf will be required to keep the straits open.

#10

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Valmy - Today at 02:44:59 AM

I expect any remnants of the regime (if that is who is fated to survive) that might make a deal with Trump may pay lip service to the demands...but will be seething for revenge at the first/every opportunity.

I have no idea what to expect. But I worry the ability of us to negotiate with anybody. Not only have we broken every deal we have ever made with them, we have killed anybody with the prestige or ability to accept any terms. I don't see we have any credibility nor any identifiable and acceptable person to enforce whatever terms we want to enforce. This new Ayatollah, the former dude's son, seems like a hard liner far beyond his father. So that's bad and besides how much power does he really have?

And I worry we have created intertia and momentum towards chaos, war, destabilization, and death. That will be hard to reverse if it really sets in. And we lack the resources and the will to stick around to fix it.

Or maybe this whole thing will somehow just fade away by next week and the status quo we reassert itself. What do I know?