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#1
Off the Record / Re: The EU thread
Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 05:38:59 AMI've got no idea and really know nothing about mliitary stuff.
I think there are two timelines which are the American withdrawal and a "peace" with Russia in Ukraine. I think the latter matters more. I'd add that I also think an added complication of that will be European desire to help reconstruct and re-arm Ukraine possibly competing with domestic defence requirements. On timelines I would just look at the public estimates - the Danish and Norwegian intelligence agencies have said between 2-5 years for a small-scale Russian attacks, 5-10 years for a major movement. Similarly I think estimates are that some of the US capabilities could take about 5 years to replace. So I think the timeline is by 2030 where are we (and based on where we are compared now to 2024 and Draghi's last wake up call - more on this later, or 2022, or 2016 I am concerned).
I don't think "Europe" will get to a position where it is credibly deterring Russia - in the sense of wider Europe. Whether that's European institutions or a broader European effort. I don't think Eastern European border states are stupid enough to tie their security to institutions which include at the worst, frankly, fifth columnist governments in Hungary, Austria and Slovakia, but also the sort of "thoughts and prayers" Europe which cares but will not help. I similarly don't think Western European states that will help, like the Netherlands, the UK, France are going to be in a position to add much meaningfully - but I think they will deliver Ukraine plus levels of support. Not a replacement for the US, more than Ukraine is getting, possibly not decisive.
Having said all that I think Poland is already spending close to 5% of GDP on defence. It is re-arming rapidly and on course to have the second largest army in NATO by 2030 (after the US). I think it is matching its defence commitments - which are its immediate neighbourhood - with its emerging capability. So I think while "Europe" may not, Europe might. I think Poland and the Baltics may be in a position to deter, in the same way as I think Finland can. Which may turn Russia's focus to other vulnerabilities in Europe - cyber-attacks, maritime, etc.
I also think that Germany's commitments are serious - but four years on from the Zeitenwende speech - I am surprised at quite how slowly the German state shifts or that shift has impact. And whether or not a wider "Europe" is able to deter or defend is something that I think very largely depends on Germany (in part because of fiscal constraints everywhere else, but also because of its size and location).
Just to return to Draghi he has given his speech again (https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-needs-new-coalition-of-the-willing-regain-power-world-stage-says-mario-draghi/). I think this is two years on from his report on the European economy - which has not really been implemented - some stuff is underway but very, very slowly and he generally called for a simplification of rules which is happening but in my area at least is not keeping pace with the emergence of new rules. I think he gave similar sort of speeches in 2022 too after the invasion and in the run up to the Italian election. He does seem to now have a semi-formal role delivering these calls to change that aren't really acted on. Not to go fully Marxist but I can't help but think there is a generational and slightly dialectic element of economy and power that Draghi sort of embodies. I think in part because he is a boomer, which is a Euro-generation I symapthise with a lot more than their American counterparts, and the Europe they were part of v the post-Cold War generation.
I think there are two timelines which are the American withdrawal and a "peace" with Russia in Ukraine. I think the latter matters more. I'd add that I also think an added complication of that will be European desire to help reconstruct and re-arm Ukraine possibly competing with domestic defence requirements. On timelines I would just look at the public estimates - the Danish and Norwegian intelligence agencies have said between 2-5 years for a small-scale Russian attacks, 5-10 years for a major movement. Similarly I think estimates are that some of the US capabilities could take about 5 years to replace. So I think the timeline is by 2030 where are we (and based on where we are compared now to 2024 and Draghi's last wake up call - more on this later, or 2022, or 2016 I am concerned).
I don't think "Europe" will get to a position where it is credibly deterring Russia - in the sense of wider Europe. Whether that's European institutions or a broader European effort. I don't think Eastern European border states are stupid enough to tie their security to institutions which include at the worst, frankly, fifth columnist governments in Hungary, Austria and Slovakia, but also the sort of "thoughts and prayers" Europe which cares but will not help. I similarly don't think Western European states that will help, like the Netherlands, the UK, France are going to be in a position to add much meaningfully - but I think they will deliver Ukraine plus levels of support. Not a replacement for the US, more than Ukraine is getting, possibly not decisive.
Having said all that I think Poland is already spending close to 5% of GDP on defence. It is re-arming rapidly and on course to have the second largest army in NATO by 2030 (after the US). I think it is matching its defence commitments - which are its immediate neighbourhood - with its emerging capability. So I think while "Europe" may not, Europe might. I think Poland and the Baltics may be in a position to deter, in the same way as I think Finland can. Which may turn Russia's focus to other vulnerabilities in Europe - cyber-attacks, maritime, etc.
I also think that Germany's commitments are serious - but four years on from the Zeitenwende speech - I am surprised at quite how slowly the German state shifts or that shift has impact. And whether or not a wider "Europe" is able to deter or defend is something that I think very largely depends on Germany (in part because of fiscal constraints everywhere else, but also because of its size and location).
Just to return to Draghi he has given his speech again (https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-needs-new-coalition-of-the-willing-regain-power-world-stage-says-mario-draghi/). I think this is two years on from his report on the European economy - which has not really been implemented - some stuff is underway but very, very slowly and he generally called for a simplification of rules which is happening but in my area at least is not keeping pace with the emergence of new rules. I think he gave similar sort of speeches in 2022 too after the invasion and in the run up to the Italian election. He does seem to now have a semi-formal role delivering these calls to change that aren't really acted on. Not to go fully Marxist but I can't help but think there is a generational and slightly dialectic element of economy and power that Draghi sort of embodies. I think in part because he is a boomer, which is a Euro-generation I symapthise with a lot more than their American counterparts, and the Europe they were part of v the post-Cold War generation.
#2
Off the Record / Re: Facebook Follies of Friend...
Last post by Tamas - Today at 04:42:49 AMQuote from: Syt on Today at 01:53:03 AMShared by my sister:
<snip>
Hey, at least it bothers them enough that they need to find a copium like that. That's half a notch better than just saying "well if you protest ICE you should be shot in the back for it"
#3
Off the Record / Re: Facebook Follies of Friend...
Last post by Tamas - Today at 04:41:17 AMQuote from: Admiral Yi on Today at 03:53:18 AMQuote from: Jacob on Today at 01:26:22 AMQuote from: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2026, 11:55:50 PMIt seems to me "bad arrests" and "complete and utter shit show" is another way of saying arrests made outside jail or prison.
Probably fewer killings of observers and protesters as well.
So you concede that up until the two killings they were synonymous?
That should be a very easy point to concede if you could procure any video footage of masked armed ICE agents in civilian vehicles ambushing random coloured people on the street during the tenure of those previous Presidents.
#4
Off the Record / Re: ICE misconduct megathread ...
Last post by Tamas - Today at 04:36:56 AM
OMG I know crying over this state of affairs is more appropriate but we have crossed so much into the absurd.Respect for them and the others putting their safety and freedom on the line while most of their country continues to enjoy the comforts they are not aware are at grave risk.
#5
Off the Record / Re: ICE misconduct megathread ...
Last post by The Brain - Today at 04:07:53 AMThese are the dastardly bomb-throwing anarchists in top hats we're looking for?
#7
Off the Record / Re: Facebook Follies of Friend...
Last post by Admiral Yi - Today at 03:53:18 AMQuote from: Jacob on Today at 01:26:22 AMQuote from: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2026, 11:55:50 PMIt seems to me "bad arrests" and "complete and utter shit show" is another way of saying arrests made outside jail or prison.
Probably fewer killings of observers and protesters as well.
So you concede that up until the two killings they were synonymous?
#8
Off the Record / Re: TV/Movies Megathread
Last post by The Brain - Today at 02:59:15 AMQuote from: Syt on Today at 01:17:30 AMThere is no indication of wrongdoing from the files.
I understand why they say this, but in a more relaxed common-sense way there's certainly indications of wrongdoing.
#9
Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread
Last post by The Brain - Today at 02:51:33 AMWhat's the position of the big boy copyright holders, like Disney etc? How do they view this stuff?
#10
Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...
Last post by bogh - Today at 02:01:54 AM60% of Danes consider the US an enemy in a new poll.
The 17% who still considers the US an ally is likely a combo of right wing crackpots and randos who don't follow the news much.
The 17% who still considers the US an ally is likely a combo of right wing crackpots and randos who don't follow the news much.