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#1

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 02:30:11 PM

I have a question:  Why do the Indians vote right and the Muslims vote left in Britain?

I don't think that's necessarily right yet.

Historically Labour have been the party of minorities. That goes back to its founding - one of the first socialist societies to affiliate with Labour was Poale Zion from Jews in the East End. My family's from Liverpool - the Irish Catholic vote was Labour, the Protestant English or Scottish vote was Tory (same in Glasgow). Those associations and the strength of those identities reduced over time - but as recently as the 1970s Liverpool was the most Tory city in the country. Labour was the party of the Race Relations Act, of civil rights and anti-racism and also, crucially, in the early post-war it was the party that had historic links to freedom movements and was associated with decolonisation and the Commonwealth. People like Nehru were very close to people in the Labour Party. There were a number of Labour Party politicians who were personally very close to a whole generation of national liberation leaders because they'd been in the same societies and the like in British universities, or at the bar, or in London. I think you still see a very faint echo of this in Northern Ireland were Labour's sister party is the SDLP which supports Irish unification - Labour doesn't operate in Northern Ireland and repeated Labour party conferences have backed Irish unification.

So I think there's a history there for minority communities voting Labour. However we don't have much data on it because the voting patterns of different communities has been tracked a lot less in opinion polls etc in the UK than the US until relatively recently. There is far better data starting with the 2015 election and a real effort to get into it.

However my understanding is that the UK is not like the US in that race does not seem to be a significant indicator of voting behaviour. What I mean by that is that the strongest indicators of how someone will vote in the UK are basically age, education and whether own or rent their home (broadly speaking Labour win with younger, more educated, renters). If you adjust for those things then race doesn't seem to be a factor in voting behaviour (and minority communities are significantly younger than the White British population, more likely to go to university and far more likely to be renting). Obviously the existence of inequalities in some of those areas indicates other ways in which race impacts people's lives.

To an extent this takes us back to the Poale Zion and Irish voters because the same is true there but happened earlier. However British Indians don't vote right - but about 70% of British Indians are homeowners, which is about the same as White Britons and their vote breaks down in a similar way (especially as British Indians are younger and more likely to be graduates). So part of this is just about the relative economic "success" of various communities in the UK - there are signs communities are going on a similar journey as British Indians. They're (broadly) more likely to go to university than the national average, get middle class jobs and buy a house in the suburbs. And the voting patterns basically resemble that. I think there's a big question of how or if that plays out as we're moving from two party politics to multi-party politics - there's some early polling that actually has a not insignificant British Indian vote for Reform so again it may just match national patterns but I'm not sure.

Having said all that the Tories have made a big pitch for British Indian and African voters in recent years - in part just by recruiting people to become MPs and identifying talent that can go into the cabinet. That top-down decision to create a sort of talent pipeline to make the party "look" different than it did in 2010 when I don't think there were any non-white MPs is a big part of how they've gone from a British Indian leader who is a practicing Hindu to a Black woman who has said she's effectively a first generation immigrant who grew up in Lagos. From 2015 on there's a lot more focus on India, so in 2015 David Cameron addressed a big joint rally in Britain with Modi - he predicted (correctly) that the first British Indian PM would be a Conservative within ten years. Zac Goldsmith's campaign to become London Mayor against Sadiq Khan was sectarian. They had a lot of Islamophobic campaigning specifically in British Indian Hindu areas. I also think this is where the Labour links with a previous generation of anti-colonial leaders can be a hindrance - because they've also tended to be quite pro-Pakistan on Kashmir, quite pro-Sikh on issues around the Golden Temple etc and have been painted as "anti-India" as India becomes less INC and more nationalist/BJP.

With British Muslims it varies - there is clear evidence there was a swing against Labour in areas with a big Muslim community in 2024 and it was overwhelmingly over Gaza. But even there there have been some very early reports that British Bangladeshi voters are starting to swing Tory - in part because there's a generation that's gone to university, got a middle class job and is now buying houses in the suburbs in Essex. And geography plays a part on this - so part of the reasons British Bangladeshis are graduating at a significantly higher rate than the national average and earning more etc is because that diaspora is overwhelmingly in London. British Pakistanis are nowhere near as concentrated and often live in declining mill towns and other post-industrial areas - I think that is the one area where my guess is that if you adjust for everything many of those seats (like Bradford) should probably be going Reform. For obvious reasons they're not but the same dissatisfaction and frustration apply in those towns and, as with the "Red Wall", Labour are the historically dominant, establishment party that has perhaps taken them for granted.

#2

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by viper37 - Today at 02:27:37 PM

What is the plan if Iran starts attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz?

It's happening right now, so we'll know very soon.
Keep bombing shit and sink ships.

#3

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 02:22:41 PM

I am sure we will eventually skim off enough until we find some seemingly pliant IRGC/ayatollah figurehead who will lead just-as-before oppressive regime that pays sufficient lip service to Trump while at the same time plotting revenge for our future leaders to have to deal with.

Or they can go to Russia...the more militant propagandists there have already invited the IRGC to come fight in Ukraine. 

#4

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by HVC - Today at 02:19:04 PM

On second thought...wouldn't that term, replacing the "demos", imply that we, and not those in charge (I mean, I guess it could be all-inclusive), are the clowns?

Well you did elect him so...

#5

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by HVC - Today at 02:12:38 PM

Decapitation of the evil Iranian regime is great. Let's hope that something good arises from that.

I don't know man. They keep acting like if we just kill off a few more guys in charge everything will be fine.

We have been doing that for decades and everything has yet to be fine. But we'll see. Maybe these were the last few guys who needed killing.

If you keep killing the bad replacements eventually a good one will show up, right? Like skimming the fat off the top of a pot. That's how politics works, isn't it

#6

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Duque de Bragança - Today at 02:11:09 PM

Kakistocracy is also applicable

Probably better, since being a clown is not bad per se, notwithstanding the use of clown as a very unflattering description.

#7

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Richard Hakluyt - Today at 02:01:53 PM

I don't think there is any shortage of militant ayatollahs. Any regime change will require parts or most of the Revolutionary guard to throw in the towel; we have recently witnessed their brutality and willingness to kill thousands to keep the Islamic Republic going....if they do give up then their own lives will be on the line 

#8

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Duque de Bragança - Today at 02:01:45 PM

On second thought...wouldn't that term, replacing the "demos", imply that we, and not those in charge (I mean, I guess it could be all-inclusive), are the clowns?

I thought one of the Republican party lines was that the US was a Republic, not a democracy? 

#9

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Valmy - Today at 01:53:47 PM

Decapitation of the evil Iranian regime is great. Let's hope that something good arises from that.

I don't know man. They keep acting like if we just kill off a few more guys in charge everything will be fine.

We have been doing that for decades and everything has yet to be fine. But we'll see. Maybe these were the last few guys who needed killing.

#10

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Crazy_Ivan80 - Today at 01:36:43 PM

Kakistocracy is also applicable