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#1

Off the Record / Re: Refractory Gauls, or the F...

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 01:29:48 PM

Looks like we have a French Liz Truss.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cewn9k0w9rxo

So...finally give people the socialist they voted for?

In addition to Zoups points the big problem here is the budget.

Eurzone budgetary rules were significantly tightened following the Eurozone crisis. Macron's big achievement in his first term was getting France within those rules, plus structural reforms which he hoped would be rewarded by a big leap forward in European integration - it wasn't. The rules were then suspended following covid and extended a bit further because of Ukraine.

The suspension ended in 2024. France's budget is in breach and it's the first big country going through the "excessive deficit procedure" which requires their deficit to be cut to no more than 3% by 2029. And the Commission considers it essential to properly police this given the perception that rules were waived under the Growth and Stability Pact contributed to the Eurozone crisis (as Jean-Claude Juncker put it when asked why budget rules weren't being enforced, "because it's France" ).

With the National Assembly split in three, the budget is the core problem for Macron. Last year they couldn't pass a budget and so there are provisions in the French constitution that basically allow for an emergency automatic extension - I think France already had this for its 2025 budget so might need it again.

In that context it is really difficult for Macron to work with the NPF who reject Macron's pension reforms and want windfall taxes on excess profits plus wealth taxes. I think the RN now also want to abolish Macron's pension reforms (they've previously accepted the reforms but wanted higher rates) and basically want some taxes reduced, others increased plus "DOGE" like audits of finances in the (almost certainly imaginary) search for cuts that can be made. So for Macron and his bloc to work with either of these parties means compromising on one of his big projects but also doesn't necessarily seem to actually present a path to escaping the excessive deficit procedure. There is no way to a majority that will not also involve the humbling of a President by two wings of politics that loath him. And Macron wants to preserve his legacy through a more balanced program of austerity (while increasing defence spending).

I'd add that there is the possibility of ECB intervention if they consider that France's bonds are coming under "unfair" attack by bond markets (spreads are already at the highest since 2012). I think given the context there's no chance at this point of the ECB considering this the sort of situation they should intervene in. Even if the did, intervention comes with strict conditionality - it wouldn't be the Troika but Troika-esque policies.

The parliamentary math and budget situation are both pretty impossible. It's very, very difficult to see a path out, at least until the next Presidential election and the hope of a new President acquiring a legislative majority. And if the EDP is already a bit of a humiliation for the most European leader - and a country like France - none of the alternatives are much better. I've said in the UK thread but I think France and the UK are in a bit of a race for who hits crisis point first.

#2

Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...

Last post by HVC - Today at 12:35:11 PM

I usually play with a goal in mind and once I reach that goal* I lose interest and start again.


*or mess up so badly my goal in unattainable

#3

Off the Record / Re: Youtube Recommendations

Last post by HVC - Today at 12:32:49 PM

This is mainly for sheilbh because I think he'd be intrigued, although I hope others enjoy him too. Channel is run by a biblical scholar who debunks fundy myths,  misunderstandings, and lies. Don't hold that he's Mormon against him

#4

Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...

Last post by Sophie Scholl - Today at 12:15:40 PM

I don't think I have since EU2 either. Weird. I usually find the end game just... less interesting. Usually everything is blobbed up, ahistorical, and only kept vaguely in check by me playing time cop and keeping things even in that marginally viable level by taking out the worst blobbers.

#5

Off the Record / Re: Youtube Recommendations

Last post by Valmy - Today at 11:07:26 AM

Act 3 of Baldur's Gate III is such a slog though

#6

Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...

Last post by Valmy - Today at 11:00:43 AM

I have to admit, I have never finished an EU game

I used to all the time in EU1 and EU2 but now it is just ridiculous how long it takes to get through a few years. That was my biggest complaint about EU3, the game goes too damn slow. I have thousands of hours of CK2 and I only played to the end date once...when I started in 1337.

And I was not alone either. AARs regularly ran to the end of the game back in the EU1 and EU2 era.

#7

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by grumbler - Today at 09:49:46 AM

I hadn't realised it was basically a bit like the argument against nukes.

I think that I have made that point here previously. Radar changed that calculus, but almost no one (outside of the UK) realized that until mid-war.

#8

Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...

Last post by Baron von Schtinkenbutt - Today at 09:39:52 AM

Other than maybe one Stellaris game I don't think I have ever finished a Paradox grand strategy game.  I typically get bored after I either hit a local maxima where I can't do anything other than maintain my position and make numbers go up, or I get so powerful that nobody can stop me and growing just becomes a tedious chore.

#9

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Baron von Schtinkenbutt - Today at 09:36:05 AM

Is there social housing in the US?

Yes, but it's handled at a local level so is very unevenly distributed.  The New York City Housing Authority is likely the largest, though it has its issues.

#10

Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 09:35:49 AM

I have to admit, I have never finished an EU game