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#1

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 03:56:30 PM

The analysis is fine but it does require assuming that the US can maintain complete control over events and that Trump maintains complete control over his people.

#2

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Baron von Schtinkenbutt - Today at 03:38:30 PM

Per a recent article on the tanker seizure, "[t]he president has repeatedly expressed reservations about an operation to remove Mr. Maduro from power, aides say, in part because of a fear that the operation could fail".  So yeah, all he gives a shit about is optics.  Honestly, par for the course for a real estate developer, in my experience.

On a related note, based on that article it sounds like that seized tanker was shady as fuck.  It may have been intended to fuck with Maduro, but it doesn't sound like it was completely unjustified.

#3

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 02:11:02 PM

I think that's a mirage.

Russia has agency in the Ukraine in the sense that they can and have chosen to burn the lives of hundreds of thousands of men to occupy some extra square miles of dirt and wrecked urban infrastructure, and manifest their frustrations in mass civilian atrocities.  But they utterly failed to impose their will on a smaller, weaker, and political fragile nation.  Being willing and able to do utterly stupid and counterproductive things isn't a sign of agency.

The Middle Eastern policy is shambles; they put their chips on Assad and went bust.  They are dicking around pointlessly in Libya.  They are basically meaningless in Africa; a handful of the more unsavory dictators have used some of their pseudo-mercs to bully the locals.  No one takes them seriously compared to China.

On these I don't agree.

So I do think agency or freedom and ability to act includes bad decisions, or morally wrong ones. Again to put the counterpoint of Europe - there is not a single European NATO deployment on our Eastern frontier that does not rely on American logistical support. Similarly I bang on about this because I think it's important (and actually reflects the state of European infrastructure), the former US Army in Europe commander has said that there is not enough "transport capacity, or infrastructure that enables the rapid movementof NATO forces across Europe." Germany - which is the linchpin in the middle, has the capacity to move "one and a half armoured brigades simultaneously at one time, that's it."

I think if you are not able to move more than 6,000 troops at one point and you do not have logistical infrastructure to sustain them (in peacetime) - you are not able to conduct any significant form of military operation. In this case I'm even talking about it primarily in the context of self-defence. Russia has military force and is capable of moving and sustaining them - it may be for something that's wrong and bad. But I think that is a material difference in agency and power. Take the point on political sustainability that in the long(er)-run I think the war challenges the political settlement of Putin's regime.

I kind of agree on the Middle East and Africa. But even there I think it's more complicated. So with Syria I think we should avoid reading backward from what was an improbable collapse of the regime - the month before Assad fell the EU was discussing an Italian proposal to actually recognise Assad again because they'd clearly won. Russia was able to intervene decisively for a period. From everything I've read about the collapse that was very much on Assad and his regime - if it had been able to be even marginally less cruel and less corrupt it would probably have been able to survive with the Russian and wider support it had (it also wouldn't be the Assad regime any more). Russia also got its client out and have him comfortably living in Moscow - I read that he's apparently got into online gaming in a big way.

With Syria and Libya and Africa I also think one "benefit" for Russia is that it is able to manipulate migration flows to Europe and generate destabilising crises. There is strong evidence they do this both at points like the Polish-Belarussian border, but also through the networks crossing the Sahara, in Libya and that the did it in Syria too. This is why I'd frame it in the context of competition as it's not for nothing that the first EU uniformed force is FrontEx and the first EU deployments to other countries is about trying to stem the flow of migrants particularly in Africa and the Middle East.

With Africa, in general, I think there's more complexity. I think Russia is still able to play on a legacy of associations with the Soviets and support for anti-imperial/national liberation movements. And I think there has been further propaganda wins from associating with anti-French/next wave of anti-imperial movements. I think that propaganda side does matter - with the US dividing over I think Europe (and Canada and Australia etc) is the only part of the world that feels the way we all do about Ukraine and I think that should maybe cause a bit of self-reflection. In terms of real benefits I think it's pretty minimal but there has been competition with France over it. I also think it is actually one of the areas where they have something to offer China becuse very often there's something of an informal handover (a bit like from British imperial power to American power in some parts of the post-war world).

In a hard-edged, hard power multipolar world, Russia is a Chinese vassal, transferring oil at below market prices in return for some diplo cover and desperately needed imports. Russia is leaning hard on China to make its play for some continuing relevance in the West as Chinese commercial interests tighten their grasp on the resources of Russia's far eastern provinces.

I agree. But I think there's a question of timelines. At a very basic level from what I've read China's leaders were shocked at Russia invasion as they had not been forewarned even at relatively recent senior meetings. I don't tink that's the behaviour of a vassal back in 2022 - but I think since then Russian dependency on China is increasing incrementally. I think it's something they're very aware of but that there's a generational divide with Putin and his cohort being totally focused on Ukraine even at the expense of future weakness/dependence on China while I think the generation who will take over from them are more alarmed at the implications. But I think that's because we're not there yet.

On the oil isn't that largely because of the oil price cap?

"Europe" may be politically dysfunctional at the level of unified diplomatic presence but whether looked at collectively or at the larger individual states, they embody centers of manufacturing prowess, technical competence, significant players in global commerce and finance, and an affluent consumer market. Russia has none of these things.  It can play the nuclear blackmail card, which has already been overplayed.

I agree with a lot of this - especially actually the technical competence. Europe does not have global competitors in the digital area generally - Breton's point was correct. But there's lots of technical and technological areas, especialy around manufacturing, where Europe absolutely has world leading companies and centres.

I think my argument is that isn't enough. What matters is the ability to leverage those capacities into agency: the ability to decide to do something and then do it. I think Europe, collectively and at individual state level (for different reasons), is less than the sum of its parts. It's unable to turn its advantages and resources into effective levers of power.

#4

Off the Record / Re: Facebook Follies of Friend...

Last post by Valmy - Today at 01:34:00 PM

Did the Biden administration actually coerce anybody to take the vaccine?

Anyway have fun spreading whooping cough Syt's fam.

#5

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Razgovory - Today at 12:58:17 PM

Otto is probably right.  There doesn't appear to be any deeper strategy in the conflict with Venezuela.  For instance when Trump declared that Venezuelan airspace was closed that was news to both our military and theirs.  Venezuelan airspace is still not closed, we are still flying deportees into Venezuela.  I don't think anyone, including Trump, has any idea what Trump doing.  One day he advocates for executing drug dealers the next he pardons them. It's rule by shitpost and meme.  The best we can hope for is that Trump declares victory and moves on.

#6

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Jacob - Today at 12:50:09 PM

So Merz has apparently gotten the memo:

"What we once called the normative West no longer exists in this form," Merz said at an event for employers in Berlin on Tuesday. "At best, it is still a geographical designation, but no longer a normative bond that holds us together."

It's on Bloomberg, which requires a subscription - so here's a link to reddit commenting on the Bloomberg article.

#7

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Jacob - Today at 12:19:37 PM

Trump won't invade Venezuela, he has had a couple of consistent political positions since the 1980s:

1. Hatred of international trade, as a real estate investor he has never understood it and intrinsically thinks trade is just a way for America to lose money
2. Obsession with the concept that alliances are a form of being taken advantage of by the other country
3. Dislike of deploying the U.S. military overseas

Trump enjoys the uses of the military which mirror how he engages with the world--performative, off the cuff, Tweet format thinking and acting. This will look like drone / bombing strikes and possibly up to and including small special forces raids and naval incursions into Venezuelan waters. It will never look like the massive build up and invasion of Iraq in 2003.

If this sort of harassment fails to destabilize Maduro's regime to the point of him fleeing or losing support of the military, Trump will just pretend all of this never happened and move on to something else.

Yeah, that more or less matches my read as well.

#8

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by HisMajestyBOB - Today at 11:37:55 AM

It's pretty clear fuck the youngism with the fonts.
Serif fonts are easier to read on paper.
Sans serifs fonts are easier to read on screens.
This is typography 101.

Yet another area where maga are letting some pathetic culture war nonsense that means nothing to anyone else reduce the efficiency of government.

Serif fonts are superior on computers because they allow you to distinguish between I and l, and 0 and O.

#9

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by OttoVonBismarck - Today at 11:26:24 AM

I don't have any insight into whether a quick invasion of a Latin American country is part of the current US administration's roadmap. It would be on brand, I suppose.

I mean, I do think Trump is a moral coward who is unwilling to make the kind decisions and take responsibility for the consequences that starting a war requires from a leader. He's a bully, not a fighter. But he might be talked into it, especially as senility sets in.

For sake of argument, let's say the current US administration decides it does want one of its traditional Latin American regime change wars - how will it play in the US? Will Trump be able to rally patriotic fervour?

Trump won't invade Venezuela, he has had a couple of consistent political positions since the 1980s:

1. Hatred of international trade, as a real estate investor he has never understood it and intrinsically thinks trade is just a way for America to lose money
2. Obsession with the concept that alliances are a form of being taken advantage of by the other country
3. Dislike of deploying the U.S. military overseas

Trump enjoys the uses of the military which mirror how he engages with the world--performative, off the cuff, Tweet format thinking and acting. This will look like drone / bombing strikes and possibly up to and including small special forces raids and naval incursions into Venezuelan waters. It will never look like the massive build up and invasion of Iraq in 2003.

If this sort of harassment fails to destabilize Maduro's regime to the point of him fleeing or losing support of the military, Trump will just pretend all of this never happened and move on to something else.

#10

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Jacob - Today at 11:16:39 AM

Everything old is new again