Recent posts

#1

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Syt - Today at 03:23:10 PM

Didn't Hegseth send a bunch of Pentagon lawyers to act as immigration judges?

#2

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 03:08:25 PM

The russians are really up shit creek though if they are relying on the Americans delivering a stable outcome.

No they are relying on the Americans to deliver an unstable outcome which Russia believes they are better positioned to capitalize on, and which in all cases is better than American delivering a stable outcome in its own national interest (i.e. squashing Russian aggressive ambitions).

And so for their reliance has paid off.

#3

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Razgovory - Today at 03:03:18 PM

Can't read the article.

#4

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 02:54:41 PM

I like the tax on gambling. I guess some losers' money finding its way to organised crime is not great but the industry seems awash in money advertising absolutely everywhere, which is kind of gross.

Tax on 2m+ properties at least has symbolic value so good.

Not thrilled about the 3p charge on EV miles driven, that's going to almost triple our current 1.6p per mile cost, but we are going to survive.

Just to come back on the budget I think it's very much a curate's egg and mainly seems aimed at party management. I am struck at how weak this Chancellor is and how weak generally the government is too which is extraordinary given the size of their majority.

The good stuff to me seems to be the EV tax. Fuel duty is an important source of revenue but we're also trying to reduce the number of people paying it because we're getting people to move to EVs. So we need some long-term replacement and this seems sensible. Also think moving the SEND budget from local authorities to Depatment for Education will be good for local government and also hopefully get some attention on a slightly out of control budget.

On the downside there's lots of new complicated stuff going on here that I think will be a nightmare (and expensive) to police. It's also a really bad budget for savers. So cash ISA allowances cut, tax benefits for pension contributions cut. Also some measures to remove tax allowances for capital investment in the private sector are just straight-forwardly anti growth.

The "mansion tax" is really complicated and from every tax expert I've seen basically the opposite of how tax should be designed. Council tax desperately needs reform but, as is often the case, this government has decided to swerve significant substantive reform in favour of a complicated thing that won't raise much money, won't make much difference but allows them to say they've done something. Given that toxic combination, I'm sure no-one will be surprised to discover that it was originally a Lib Dem policy. So the only redeeming feature is that the Lib Dems have come out against it very strongly (In fairness their heartlands overlap more or less totally with expensive houses.)

I also think it's yet another budget with a generational kicker. So allowances for ISAs are cut for working people - not for pensioners. Income tax thresholds are frozen so won't increase with inflation (this means there are now nurses in the higher tax band which is not right), plus student loan repayment thresolds aren't being adjusted for inflation so they will continue to kick in early. Add in the pensions changes and it's really not clear that there's anything in this budget for young people or workers. On the other hand pensions are increasing by 4.8% because of the triple lock, which the chancellor is keeping. Pensioners are excluded from the ISA changes and the Chancellor has since said people on state pensions will not pay income tax on that even if the inflation/wage-rated growth of pensions collides with the non-inflation tracking tax thresholds. So it's another budget - in a row of 15 budgets where the young and workers are kind of screwed while the elderly are protected.

I also think (which is why I think the whole "fiscal rule"/headroom framing of policy is bullshit) that it's not really going to happen Most of new tax measures (not least because they're quite complex so will require design and implementation work) won't take effect until 2028. So spending will rise in the short term, while there will be long term revenue increases that will take force in *checks notes* an election year. That strikes me as basically quite unlikely:


As has been pointed out by many people there is almost nothing or growth or productivity in the budget - and the OBR assessment basically says it has no impact on either of those measures. Which feels sub-optimal from a government "laser-focused on growth" and where that is the huge limiting factor to their plans.

Also I think the politics and handling of this budget in the run-up was bad. What's really weird is that the OBR forecasting data has come out since and it wasn't even necessry - basically they told Reeves she had "headroom" early-ish in the process. It seems all very strange.

#5

Off the Record / Re: Football (Soccer) Thread

Last post by Jacob - Today at 02:34:57 PM

Vancouver beats San Diego to meet Miami in the final

Worth watching the highlights of that game I think, the first goal especially was lovely.

#6

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Legbiter - Today at 02:05:28 PM

Someone made a joke a while ago here about how the Ukrainians had better buy a lot of Trump's shitcoin.

The russians are really up shit creek though if they are relying on the Americans delivering a stable outcome.

#7

Off the Record / Re: Archaeologists do it in ho...

Last post by Legbiter - Today at 01:56:25 PM

Is this another thing that's because of people bearing beakers?

The depigmentation of modern North Europeans populations was very strongly selected for after the Yamnaya expansion into Europe. Here's a good overview article.



The Four Races of Europe (Part I): The Aryan paradox

I just discovered a paternal Y-chromosome ancestor from a mass grave found in 2008 at St. John's College in Oxford where he was one of 36 men killed in the 1002 St. Brice's Day massacre. This was science fiction until about 2014.

#8

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 01:36:44 PM

So apparently the key pillar of Trump's peace plan is to make Trump and his friends a lot of money...

I'm not sure how reliable a source Daily Beast is, but sounds believable: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-2-trillion-plan-to-cash-in-on-ukraine-peace-leaks/

Based on reporting in the WSJ which seems solid.  Totally on brand for both sides.

The combination of corruption, stupidity, and gullibility is just so deadly.  Trump is the worst kind of gullible person; the kind whose own self-identity is based on the idea of being street-smart.  He is truly a dream come true for Putin and the FSB.

There is such a long and very well-developed history of western companies and investors getting ripped off trying to play in post-Soviet Russia you'd think there couldn't possibly be any rubes left whose greediness so overwhelms their judgment. But no, mar-a-lago to the rescue.

#9

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Legbiter - Today at 01:30:24 PM

Pokrovsk.

Warhammer 40k stuff.   

Contains a carpet of dead zetniks

#10

Off the Record / Re: Facebook Follies of Friend...

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 01:20:20 PM

Thanksgiving commemorates the unique American practice of welcoming leaders of friendly foreign nations by insulting them publicly, and then parading the village idiot before them to demand "Have you said thank you once?"