Recent posts

#1

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 10:27:05 PM

The problem is people generalizing that utility across all AI tools and especially generative AI tools.

The problem is also not grasping how high the bar is for AI to achieve useful social return on investment.  In the past 10 years, over $2 trillion has been spent on AI development.  That's on the level of all the railway investment in Europe in the entire 19th century.  AI could have a lot of utility and still be a complete bust. 

Agreed.

#2

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by HisMajestyBOB - Today at 10:25:34 PM

Would people in the 19th century have rather had railroads, or this: https://twitter.com/i/status/1984446427632689308

#3

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 09:32:25 PM

India's oil imports from Russia are way down in Jan. 26, a rare recent victory for the US sanctions regime. Tankers are piling up on the water near refinery locations.

#4

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 09:26:27 PM

The problem is people generalizing that utility across all AI tools and especially generative AI tools.

The problem is also not grasping how high the bar is for AI to achieve useful social return on investment.  In the past 10 years, over $2 trillion has been spent on AI development.  That's on the level of all the railway investment in Europe in the entire 19th century.  AI could have a lot of utility and still be a complete bust. 

#5

Off the Record / Re: Go Persians, go!

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 09:13:30 PM

Who are you thinking of as the hard and firm left?

I think people saw what was happening in the US over the last four or five decades and validly critiqued what was occurring. A reminder that Trump is not the cause, he is the result.

As Valmy suggested, I am thinking of the hyperbolic caricature that Soviet, Russian, and Chinese propaganda built of the US, and those who subscribe to those caricatures as truth.  Elements like the UK Greens being discussed off and on in the UK megathread.

I'm certainly not under the delusion that this is something new or unique to Trump.  I don't know if I have said it here before, but I see Trump taking to their final form a bunch of trends and institutions I have never liked, some of which go all the way back to the New Deal.  That's a much broader subject than just Trump's approach to the rest of the world.

My initial reaction was based on the less-valid "criticisms" leveled by certain elements of the left that the US basically does nothing internationally unless the purpose is self-enrichment or subjugation.  That we have always been, essentially, a 19th Century colonial/imperial power that does not have friends or allies, only vassals that must pay us tribute in some fashion.  I think Trump is actually taking this attitude, and I do think this is new from him.  The closest we've been to this point before was the Banana Wars period from the Spanish American War until the mid-30s.  Even then it wasn't as widespread as it is now.

Honestly, on the specific subject of Iran, if we could remove the current regime and replace it with a semi-liberal democracy, without significant suffering and bloodshed, I'd be all for that.  However, that's not possible, nor is it what Trump wants to do.  I think he actually does want to subjugate Iran in some way, as he is trying to do with Venezuela.  I think that is a major change from past US interventions, even Dubya going into Iraq.

Thanks, that all makes good sense

#6

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 08:30:35 PM

Oh RIP Jim Wallace
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd115dxrr63o

Not many of that generation of very impressive Scottish politicians left now (and one the few things I regret about devolution is that our national politics has become less Scottish). I think maybe Gordon Brown, Lord Robertson and, on the Tory side, Malcolm Rifkind and Lord Forsyth.

People often look back at the prominent politicians of the 70s when looking at the rather dismal crop around now. But I don't think you even have to go that far back, as well as those politicians and Jim Wallace you had Donald Dewar, Robin Cook, Charles Kennedy, Alistair Darling and Alex Salmond. All around the same age, all very impressive in thir own ways

#7

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Legbiter - Today at 08:22:42 PM

Thought it showed a few things that I think are problems in British politics and why everything is quite sclerotic. First was just the ease of going from campaign to MP to an article in the Guardian (and it is always the Guardian citing "experts" ).

Another is that it reminds me of a paper done by a think tank recently that Rory Stewart picked up on. It basically said that the problem with the British state is "everythingism". They basically argued that basically every policy the government pursues is a means of promoting every national objective/addressing every issue at the same time (also often framed around being holistic or joined up or engaging all stakeholders). So housing policy is not about housing but also biodiersity net gain and nitrogen imbalances in rivers and violence against women and girls etc.

Rory Stewart's example was that he was Secretary of State for International Development during the Syrian refugee crisis - obviously a very big issue for his department. He went to meetings at the MoD, Intelligence Services, FCO and basically discovered that all of the relevant DfID team were dialling in from East Kilbride in Clydeside. He said this is a really important issue and there'd be side meetings and he needed civil service support in London. He was told by the Permanent Secretary that the relevant team were based in East Kilbride which was a core part of DfID's role in helping regeneration projects there. So he agreed but asked if they could come to London for these weekly all department Syria meetings - which was agreed. He gets to the next meeting and his team are dialling in again. He says the Permanent Secretary told him that they'd have to fly for it to be a one day trip and that would go against DfID's role in achieving net zero. Stewart found it incredibly frustrating but used it as an example of this every policy has to address every issue at once (I'd add from my devolution perspective that it's a classic civil service approach to devolution and regeneration as well: put part of what's now the Foreign Office in East Kilbride, or the Treasury in Darlington - because they'll never challenge London in the way that, say, Glasgow or Newcastle might).

The other thing is the alarming number of people in public life who don't seem to understand that the solution to council underfunding is not to just keep on adding new mandatory things that it needs to consider. That will just increase the pressure on already underfunded councils to review more impact assessments and consultants' reports (and give them more reasons to reject planning proposals). Developments need to deliver x number of houses (y% of which should be affordable), should also have commercial space delivering z thousand jobs, produce a biodiversity net game, have a neutral impact on nutrients in nearby ground and water, protect any possible species nearby, have new public amenities, "design out" crime, help us meet our statutory duty to reach net zero by 2050, preserve local heritage assets etc - but you've still only got one underpaid planning officer to assess all of this (and introduced about ten different bases which NIMBYs could challenge in the courts).

I don't necessarily think this is a bad idea on its own terms - but on top of everything else involved in planning and with no extra resources for councils to actually do it I don't think it's helpful.

Reminds me of how Iceland was before 2008. That (reluctantly being dragged, crying, pissing and shitting itself) forced the elite to grow up.

#8

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by viper37 - Today at 08:16:13 PM

Another day, another bubble.

Tariffs and decertification for Bombardier C-Series.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/politics/2026/01/29/live-updates-trump-threatens-canada-with-additional-tariffs/

#9

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by viper37 - Today at 08:03:29 PM

Was Lucky Luke every popular in English Canada?

I still have some albums here, Le Pied Tendre, notably.  Tenderfoot.

The animation does not seem as funny as my childhood book:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vWY68meh5o

Reminds me of that.  British aristocrat arrives in the far west and becomes so well integrated that in the end he joins the other cowboys to "welcome" a tenderfoot once he realizes it's his old nemesis from London.

I still prefer that vintage cartoon animation compared to the more recent attempt. Different media, of course.

Also, did you read La Belle Province album?

It's way after Goscinny and Morris...

Yes, I've read it.  Not bad, but not really on the level of Goscinny and Morris.

#10

Gaming HQ / Re: The Miscellaneous PC & vid...

Last post by mongers - Today at 07:40:12 PM

Thanks G

Frost Punk 2, Against the Storm, Commandos Origins, Dome Keeper, The Dragon Ages, Manor Lords, Cities Skyline 1 & 2, Pacific Drive, The Shadow Runs.

Any genre you really like?

Thanks GF I'll check those out.

Mainly strategy games that we languishite often play.