Recent posts

#1

Off the Record / Re: Climate Change/Mass Extinc...

Last post by mongers - Today at 11:29:21 AM

Sea level much higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments

The impacts of sea-level rise and other hazards on the coasts of the world are determined by coastal sea-level height and land elevation¹. Correct integration of both aspects is fundamental for reliable sea-level rise and coastal hazard impact assessments^2,3, but is often not carefully considered or properly performed. Here we show that more than 99% of the evaluated impact assessments handled sea-level and land elevation data inadequately, thereby misjudging sea level relative to coastal elevation. Based on our literature evaluation, 90% of the hazard assessments assume coastal sea levels based on geoid models, rather than using actual sea-level measurements. Our meta-analyses on global scale show that measured coastal sea level is higher than assumed in most hazard assessments (mean offsets [standard deviation] of 0.27 m [0.76 m] and 0.24 m [0.52 m] for two commonly-used geoids). Regionally, predominantly in the Global South, measured mean sea level can be more than 1 m above global geoids, with the largest differences in the Indo-Pacific. Compared with geoid-based assumptions of coastal sea level, the measured values suggest that with a hypothetical 1 m of relative sea-level rise, 31–37% more land and 48–68% more people (increasing estimates to 77–132 million) would fall below sea level. Our results highlight the need for re-evaluation of existing coastal impact assessments and improvement of research community standards, with possible implications for policymakers, climate finance and coastal adaptation.

Bad measurements used, a fact known for about 20 years, but recently rediscovered because most researchers tend to work within their fields instead of forming multi-disciplinary units.

Thanks Viper, that's both interest and depressing.

#2

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 11:27:37 AM

Trump said in the 2002 New York Magazine article that he had known Epstein for 15 years, which puts it back into the 1980s.  The guy who ran the operations of Trump's casino in Jersey stated that he saw the two together there during his tenure starting in 1987.

People focus on period when they were neighbors in Palm Beach, but Epstein and Trump were both active "men about the town" in NYC during the 1980s.  Epstein was named "bachelor of the month" by Cosmo in 1980. 

#3

Off the Record / Re: Climate Change/Mass Extinc...

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 11:25:26 AM

It's an interesting case study on the impact of how siloed so much of what we do has become.

In part, I suppose it's a necessity because of the complexity that has developed in many areas of knowledge and the require requirement to focus on particular aspects of one area.


For example, any lawyers now focus on a particular area within a more general area of practice. There are very few lawyers left who have a general practice covering multiple practice areas.

What gets lost is seeing how each area impacts the other.  In other words, we are quickly losing the ability to see the big picture.

#4

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by mongers - Today at 11:23:30 AM

Looks like the US is in another forever war.

It's only natural that trump should harken back to the days of his youth, when the US was trying to heavily bomb a country into submission.

And the war strategy was built on the fairy tale of a democratic country coming into existence and from which all the darker forces had suddenly disappeared; be those nationalist communism or now Shia Islam.



I suspect when the bombers have few remaining targets, he'll look on the map for a Laos or Cambodia?

#5

Off the Record / Re: Hungarian Politics

Last post by Crazy_Ivan80 - Today at 11:15:50 AM

A little baffled why Ukraine would attempt to do that passing through the territory of a hostile state.

True, wondering too

#6

Off the Record / Re: Climate Change/Mass Extinc...

Last post by viper37 - Today at 11:00:57 AM

Sea level much higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments

The impacts of sea-level rise and other hazards on the coasts of the world are determined by coastal sea-level height and land elevation¹. Correct integration of both aspects is fundamental for reliable sea-level rise and coastal hazard impact assessments^2,3, but is often not carefully considered or properly performed. Here we show that more than 99% of the evaluated impact assessments handled sea-level and land elevation data inadequately, thereby misjudging sea level relative to coastal elevation. Based on our literature evaluation, 90% of the hazard assessments assume coastal sea levels based on geoid models, rather than using actual sea-level measurements. Our meta-analyses on global scale show that measured coastal sea level is higher than assumed in most hazard assessments (mean offsets [standard deviation] of 0.27 m [0.76 m] and 0.24 m [0.52 m] for two commonly-used geoids). Regionally, predominantly in the Global South, measured mean sea level can be more than 1 m above global geoids, with the largest differences in the Indo-Pacific. Compared with geoid-based assumptions of coastal sea level, the measured values suggest that with a hypothetical 1 m of relative sea-level rise, 31–37% more land and 48–68% more people (increasing estimates to 77–132 million) would fall below sea level. Our results highlight the need for re-evaluation of existing coastal impact assessments and improvement of research community standards, with possible implications for policymakers, climate finance and coastal adaptation.

Bad measurements used, a fact known for about 20 years, but recently rediscovered because most researchers tend to work within their fields instead of forming multi-disciplinary units.

#7

Off the Record / Re: Facebook Follies of Friend...

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 10:57:55 AM

The sanity of Leafs fans needs to be questioned, not their integrity.

#8

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by viper37 - Today at 10:54:53 AM

Trump now demands Irans unconditional surrender.

Who's going to tell him how that usually works?

With a nuclear attack and the threat of a land invasion by an ally?

#9

Off the Record / Re: Facebook Follies of Friend...

Last post by viper37 - Today at 10:49:55 AM

Canada number 1? He's gonna be pissed.

Well...among Canadians. You guys are quite fond of each other.

I mean can you dislike someone but still think they're morally good? Cause there is still a lot of interprovincial beefs

I always question the moral character of Leafs and Habs fans, but outside that, I find Canadians totally fine people.

#10

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 10:47:23 AM

Or more to the point, the menu team could generate better ideas on their own.

Maybe the menu team could use the a to generate a ceo?