Recent posts

#1

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Razgovory - Today at 02:15:11 PM

How is the US population responding to the attack on Venezuela? Are we seeing a rah-rah-US rallying around the flag effect, or is there some level of concern about foreign adventures?

Surprise at the moment.

#2

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by Bauer - Today at 02:00:47 PM

Is the death of Albertas oil industry coming?  Venezuela oil is heavy crude identical to oil sands, and Texas refineries are specialized to process it.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/how-venezuelan-crude-could-shake-things-up-for-canadian-producers-9.7019971

#3

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by Sophie Scholl - Today at 01:55:52 PM

Trump and the US get Venezuela, Putin and Russia get Ukraine, and Xi and China get Taiwan. Everyone else gets to complain ineffectually. So it goes.

#4

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by Jacob - Today at 01:45:05 PM

A foreign power can't run a country with literally no personnel on the ground.  The implication is that some deal was been done with the regime to maintain the political status quo in return for getting US oil companies into the country and a more pro-US diplo stance.  But in Trumpland its hard to distinguish reality from fantasy

Yeah me the big question is to what degree the Trump regime expects to be involved in profiting off Venezuela, how many American resources need to be committed to ensure that profit, and to what degree their local Venezuelan collaborators can keep control of things.

I feel like I have a good sense of the first point (they expect to make billions), but I'm much less clear on the second two points.

#5

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by Tamas - Today at 01:26:47 PM

Why would Russia even be in a position to bargain on Venezuela?  I think it's more likely this is an (attempted) return to America using Latin America as its backyard.

Yeah I wasn't very serious about it. But I have a lingering suspicion that all the Greenland nonsense and this gungho stance on Latin America at least in part comes from Putin filling Trump's head with distracting nonsense

#6

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 01:23:11 PM

A foreign power can't run a country with literally no personnel on the ground.  The implication is that some deal was been done with the regime to maintain the political status quo in return for getting US oil companies into the country and a more pro-US diplo stance.  But in Trumpland its hard to distinguish reality from fantasy

#7

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Tamas - Today at 01:22:06 PM

There's been an interesting piece on the BBC basically explaining why they're not covering it much. Basically there are protests. It's very hard to verify as there's just a lot of videos verifying and a very motivated (and I think politically incompetent) emigre community which is sharing this with a high pitch of excitement and rumour (the one I saw was IRGC abandoning several cities which feels unlikely).

So the BBC were basically explaining how they're trying to report what they know is true, that it's tough but they're not going to report rumour or social media videos without it. Which makes sense and I think is the right choice (and learned through hard experience in the last few decades - not least recently in Gaza) but basically leaves them just saying protests are happening.

Yeah I have nothing to base this on but the vibe feels like when in Hungary a thousand angry college kids would tussle with riot police for an hour with 5 thousand people watching the live feed hoping it would escalate to regime change.

#8

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Zanza - Today at 01:21:27 PM

The way things are going, the World Cup being held this year must surely be in doubt now.

As long as it pays for "Johnny" Infantino and the other FIFA bosses, they don't give a shit. Last two venues were Russia and Qatar after all.

#9

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by Bauer - Today at 01:09:24 PM

Why would Russia even be in a position to bargain on Venezuela?  I think it's more likely this is an (attempted) return to America using Latin America as its backyard.

#10

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by Jacob - Today at 01:06:32 PM

Except the press conference said she has agreed to run the country as US proxy. Who knows what's true. Most likely is that she IS in Russia and Trump and Putin are going to divide up the country.

You're suggesting the US and Russia reached an agreement on Venezuela, similar to how Putin and Trump have been trying to reach an agreement on Ukraine?