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#1
Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...
Last post by The Brain - Today at 02:00:14 AMYeah, Trump speaks for the US. He is head of state, head of government, and commander-in-chief. With a strong voter mandate, having been elected twice, the second time after openly displaying his ambition to end democracy by a coup attempt. Trump doesn't matter. The US does.
#2
Off the Record / Re: ICE, ICE, baby - Immigrati...
Last post by The Brain - Today at 01:56:22 AMThe US is a write-off. Domestic policy: death squads. Foreign policy: attacking allies.
#3
Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...
Last post by Richard Hakluyt - Today at 01:46:13 AMTrump is a sick man but that should be an irrelevance or mere footnote; it is only important because the US electorate is also sick and elected him.
#4
Off the Record / Re: ICE, ICE, baby - Immigrati...
Last post by Richard Hakluyt - Today at 01:40:46 AMLooks like the victim was only guilty of being a person who cared about other people 
#5
Off the Record / Re: ICE, ICE, baby - Immigrati...
Last post by Norgy - Today at 01:07:43 AMQuote from: Tamas on January 24, 2026, 04:18:40 PMI have watched the latest incidents from a few angles and this is very obviously another execution.
It'd be hard to disagree, yet Noem and Trump do.
#6
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Jacob - Today at 12:00:21 AMI think Trump and his clique are trying to provoke strong reactions with ICE, to justify even stronger responses from their side. The fiction of "liberal cities in chaos" furthers the narratives they use to keep their own base on board. It also justifies one vector of blatant election interference. Finally it trains cadres of paramilitaries for a possible scenario where they want to use force to fight political opponents directly at some point in the future.
Internationally, I think - in addition to feeding Trump's ego and trying to satisfy the dreams of the paint-the-map-strategy-gamers among his advisors and sponsors - the administration is looking for a war that's big enough to create a rally-around-the-flag effect amongst Trump's base and the more apolitically patriotic demographics, but not so big it creates real domestic problems.
I expect that in the upcoming elections - midterms 2026 and the 2028 presidential election - they will go all in on swinging the scales to maintain power. The scope of the manipulation will depend on how much genuine popularity they have, but I expect they'll look to maintain the fiction of democratic legitimacy as much as possible along. Basically they're looking at the playbooks of Putin, Orban, and the like. I expect blatant voter suppression up to and including force, massive social and traditional media manipulation, and outright - but at least superficially deniable - fraud.
The critical points in the timeline, I think, are going to be the following:
The question at each of those times is how much legitimacy Trump has among the institutions that will keep him in power at those times. Popular protests can play a part in that, as can the kind of civic organization and opposition Oex has recommended IMO.
I'm not super optimistic, to be honest. The deck is kind of stacked against the opposition, given how social media ownership (and much traditional media ownership also) is part of Trumps extended clique. But neither is there no hope, IMO.
Things that could help tip the scales against Trump, in my view:
Internationally, I think - in addition to feeding Trump's ego and trying to satisfy the dreams of the paint-the-map-strategy-gamers among his advisors and sponsors - the administration is looking for a war that's big enough to create a rally-around-the-flag effect amongst Trump's base and the more apolitically patriotic demographics, but not so big it creates real domestic problems.
I expect that in the upcoming elections - midterms 2026 and the 2028 presidential election - they will go all in on swinging the scales to maintain power. The scope of the manipulation will depend on how much genuine popularity they have, but I expect they'll look to maintain the fiction of democratic legitimacy as much as possible along. Basically they're looking at the playbooks of Putin, Orban, and the like. I expect blatant voter suppression up to and including force, massive social and traditional media manipulation, and outright - but at least superficially deniable - fraud.
The critical points in the timeline, I think, are going to be the following:
- Whenever the violence inflicted on American cities and citizens reaches a breaking point and the counter response comes.
- Whenever (if) Trump commits to a non-superficial foreign military adventure.
- The two elections, depending on how clearly overwhelming the opposition is (if it is, of course) and on how blatantly Trump's clique cheats (including a potential 3rd term for Trump if he's not dead).
- Whenever there's a succession for Trump - if there's a new presidential candidate in 2028 or whenever Trump dies or becomes incapable even as a figurehead. How disciplined will the succession be, and what will the aftermath look like?
The question at each of those times is how much legitimacy Trump has among the institutions that will keep him in power at those times. Popular protests can play a part in that, as can the kind of civic organization and opposition Oex has recommended IMO.
I'm not super optimistic, to be honest. The deck is kind of stacked against the opposition, given how social media ownership (and much traditional media ownership also) is part of Trumps extended clique. But neither is there no hope, IMO.
Things that could help tip the scales against Trump, in my view:
- Economic meltdown (especially if shaped in a way that it impacts his core supporters directly)
- A military humiliation on a sufficient scale
- Some sort of "holy fuck, you went to far" moment that resonates with the wider American public (but the current ICE killings are apparently not it)
#7
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by HVC - January 24, 2026, 11:05:54 PMWhen my algorithm shows me the right side of the world it's being portrayed as a terrorism incident that was successfully thwarted.
#8
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Jacob - January 24, 2026, 11:00:17 PMWhat is the level of outrage in the US at the murder?
I mean, I get that decent Americans are horrified, obviously. But is there some sort of narrative building that this is too far in the mainstream or even among the right? Or is this successfully being framed as "both sides" and "cracking down on disorder"?
I mean, I get that decent Americans are horrified, obviously. But is there some sort of narrative building that this is too far in the mainstream or even among the right? Or is this successfully being framed as "both sides" and "cracking down on disorder"?
#9
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Jacob - January 24, 2026, 10:56:57 PMWhile I'm absolutely sympathetic to the "I'd like to ignore Trump's BS as much as possible for my own mental health" point of view (and it's something I do myself), I think that persuasive nationalist and persuasive populist arguments against the Trumpists and their fellow travellers are an invaluable part of resisting them.
#10
Off the Record / Re: TV/Movies Megathread
Last post by mongers - January 24, 2026, 09:13:59 PMQuote from: grumbler on January 24, 2026, 08:34:27 PMQuote from: mongers on January 23, 2026, 10:23:11 PMA new Bob Mortimer appearence on 'Would I Lie to You' :
Would I Lie To You Series 19 Programme 2
Not available in the US. It'll soon be on youtube, though, I am sure.
Yeah I don't know how you guys get around iplayer uk restrictions, VPNs?