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#1

Off the Record / Re: Are we in the opening scen...

Last post by Josephus - Today at 03:01:36 PM

Nobody's brought up AI, either. I really don't think we can underestimate the potential danger of this.

[edit] Yes, I know there's an entire thread about it.

#2

Off the Record / Re: Are we in the opening scen...

Last post by DGuller - Today at 02:54:08 PM

I don't fear a nuclear armageddon from Trump/Putin...I think both are eager to avoid MAD.  Same from any of Trump's potential successors...all of them are likely to just bend over while stealing from the local monetary sources.  On the Russian side I am less sure...it feels like most of the public/media-facing Russian demagogues speak in apocalyptic tones worthy of the worst religious zealots (the line of "what good is the world if Russia is not in it" while talking casually of using nuclear weapons...).  It may be likely that whomever takes over after Putin will just be some similar grey figure with the necessary hold over the state security apparatus...but that is a big unknown as seen from here.

Meanwhile, China is not likely to just chill on Taiwan forever...but I suspect that if push came to shove, we'd just let them try and take it, and just muddle through any resulting consequences.

The danger doesn't come only from intentions, it also comes from dynamics that inherently can't be 100% predictable.  Sometimes events happen to play out even when everyone understands it's to everyone's collective detriment.  If a nuclear exchange does happen at some point, it would most likely be due to a brinkmanship gone wrong.

That said, we've been living with this fear for decades, so it's old hat at this point.  The new fear I have is that the world is locked on a course to become ever more centralized, and AI will unlock plenty of new ways of ensuring that any challenge to central authority gets identified and contained earlier than ever.  The entrenchment of central authority will lead a world that is very brittle, much like a forest that was never allowed to have brush fires.

#3

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 02:31:17 PM

The twist in this case is the police DID get a warrant (though it took Google a year to deliver)...and then when it was challenged, the court here is saying that the police don't even need one in the first place.

Though I suppose a police agency would still need one if the corporation in question resisted a request?

Yeah and this is me being imprecise - they'd need something or the company could just say no.

And there'll be a difference between UK and US on this. But it's a bit like CCTV. Police request it. Lots of companies will just hand it over because they don't know any better. If they're well-advised they'll ask for a "production order" which police (and other authorities) can produce subject to formalities and legal requirements. You can challenge it in the courts but if they've got the right formalities and legal requirements, they have a right to it. So I imagine they'd have to produce something like that - even just to identify what and who it is they're looking for.

Warrant is more power of search which is different.

#4

Off the Record / Re: Are we in the opening scen...

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 02:28:55 PM

I don't fear a nuclear armageddon from Trump/Putin...I think both are eager to avoid MAD.  Same from any of Trump's potential successors...all of them are likely to just bend over while stealing from the local monetary sources.  On the Russian side I am less sure...it feels like most of the public/media-facing Russian demagogues speak in apocalyptic tones worthy of the worst religious zealots (the line of "what good is the world if Russia is not in it" while talking casually of using nuclear weapons...).  It may be likely that whomever takes over after Putin will just be some similar grey figure with the necessary hold over the state security apparatus...but that is a big unknown as seen from here.

Meanwhile, China is not likely to just chill on Taiwan forever...but I suspect that if push came to shove, we'd just let them try and take it, and just muddle through any resulting consequences.

#5

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by garbon - Today at 02:20:32 PM

All this talk about how AI stacks up against the best of humans IMO misses a much more subtle advantage:  accessibility.  This morning, while taking clean dishes out of my dishwasher, I noticed a part lying at the bottom.  I took a picture of it and asked ChatGPT what it was, without even revealing where I got it from.  It correctly identified the part, and the dishwasher it came out of, and explained to me what it was and how critical it was.

Did it do something that a human couldn't do?  No, of course not.  I could've gotten my answer in a few different ways, but none of them would've taken a minute and a single cell phone picture.  Just making intelligence more accessible, and not even better than a human intelligence, is already a huge win when multiplied over many such events.

Yeah that sure is worth using up natural resources and increasing the cost of microchips  (and products using them) for marginally faster convenience.

#6

Gaming HQ / Re: What are you playing? (Red...

Last post by garbon - Today at 02:18:21 PM

Right now I'm playing EU2: For the Glory. 

#7

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 02:17:17 PM

To me the issue isn't that the police can access this via a warrant but that Google (or other search engines) are storing and monetising it in the first place.

The twist in this case is the police DID get a warrant (though it took Google a year to deliver)...and then when it was challenged, the court here is saying that the police don't even need one in the first place.

Though I suppose a police agency would still need one if the corporation in question resisted a request?

#8

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by DGuller - Today at 01:55:01 PM

Once upon a time it made sense. Books were scarce. Remembering had value. Even without AI this hasn't been so for a while.
It would be nice to see a change in how things are done to encourage more application even at undergrad.

Life would be impossible without remembering.  We use basic math every day.  We use language every day.

I agree.  Maybe technology changed what we need to remember, but looking things up has just too much latency for some tasks.  For example, pilots have thick books with them on how to deal with emergencies, but some procedures are burned into memory because they need to be done immediately when the situation arises.  Also, if you're interested in research, you kind of have to keep many things in memory to connect the dots, knowing that you can look them up is not enough, although AI has changed that somewhat as well.

#9

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by DGuller - Today at 01:43:26 PM

All this talk about how AI stacks up against the best of humans IMO misses a much more subtle advantage:  accessibility.  This morning, while taking clean dishes out of my dishwasher, I noticed a part lying at the bottom.  I took a picture of it and asked ChatGPT what it was, without even revealing where I got it from.  It correctly identified the part, and the dishwasher it came out of, and explained to me what it was and how critical it was.

Did it do something that a human couldn't do?  No, of course not.  I could've gotten my answer in a few different ways, but none of them would've taken a minute and a single cell phone picture.  Just making intelligence more accessible, and not even better than a human intelligence, is already a huge win when multiplied over many such events.

#10

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 01:03:11 PM

Life would be impossible without remembering.  We use basic math every day.  We use language every day.

You also can't apply without knowledge. I'm not a big nutrition or fitness person so only kind of get this but I'm reminded of a barrister's comment that facts are protein, arguments are carbs. His job is literally advocacy but it needs the detail and the facts to do anything.

I'm not so sure on academia being we're taught what we collectively know, but the contemporary take or interpretation of it. We are taught not the past but the present - which is built on those foundations.

FWIW found another use for AI - it is good at generating lists that I can upload into Anki flshcards.