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#1

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 09:21:11 AM

It's like we never learn.  Remember once upon a time when America invaded and Iraq and said the oil would pay for the cost many times over?   And it took nearly a decade for Iraqi oil production to reach pre-conflict levels?

It will take YEARS to fix up the problems with the Venezuelan oil industry. It will take enormous amounts of investment and years for that investment to yield results.  Will that investment happen? Here are some obstacles:

1) Uncertain political and legal environment.  These investments have payoff periods measured in decades.
2) Weak demand/supply conditions in present market environment. E.g. last year demand increased 900K barrels per day but supply by 4 million.
3) Venezuelan oil tends to be poor quality heavy grades that is more costly to refine.  Yes it is true that many of the Gulf Coast refineries are currently set up to process these grades.  But US refineries are already running close to full capacity, so the refineries would have to be expanded as well.  In loose supply conditions when price is falling (as now) that product is the first to become uneconomic.
4) The background trend worldwide is a shift to renewables, which have a more favorable output/cost ratio already which continues to improve.  Although the Stupid Squad around Trump pretends not to know this, the oil majors definitely do.  They will be wary that billions thrown on developing dirty and expensive to process reserves could end up as uneconomic stranded assets.

#2

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by Crazy_Ivan80 - Today at 08:38:14 AM

Not even sure which one of the crisis threads to put this in but apparently the Russian said oil tanker which earlier fled boarding near Venezuela by sporting a Russian flag and had been expecting Russian Navy escorts back to Murmansk, is being boarded by US forces

Probably trying to preempt issues with the sub the orcs may or may not have sent out escort the ship.
Who knows anymore in this ever dumber than dumbest timelines

#3

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by Tamas - Today at 08:26:56 AM

Not even sure which one of the crisis threads to put this in but apparently the Russian said oil tanker which earlier fled boarding near Venezuela by sporting a Russian flag and had been expecting Russian Navy escorts back to Murmansk, is being boarded by US forces

#4

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 07:30:26 AM

Yeah, that is certainly an exacerbating factor

#5

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by mongers - Today at 07:18:21 AM

 So that's 4-7 million tonnes of crude oil, say they can get hold of a bunch of tankers averaging  250,000 tonnes, that's upto 28 tanker loads, how many days would it take for southern US refineries to process that?

#6

Off the Record / Re: TV/Movies Megathread

Last post by Syt - Today at 06:52:27 AM

Some of the established Fallout lore hits a bit different these days (minor spoiler for Fallout TV show).

#7

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by Zanza - Today at 05:22:25 AM

We basically allow the heads of criminal gangs to run their operations from prison.  No reason Maduro couldn't do the same. 

You also allow heads of criminal gangs to run their operations from Mar-a-Lago. 

#8

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 04:59:09 AM

The American "forces" there are probably just an undermanned (we usually always are, in balance of the missions required) US Air/Space Force unit supporting a Cold War-era early warning station.  None of the personnel there would be at all effective in taking over Greenland. 

Well, if they ever get serious about this, the first move will be to beef up that base.

Doubtful...it is pretty remote, even for Greenland.  I expect any invasion would just be some Marines taking over Nuuk and Trump declaring victory.

#9

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by celedhring - Today at 04:56:06 AM

The American "forces" there are probably just an undermanned (we usually always are, in balance of the missions required) US Air/Space Force unit supporting a Cold War-era early warning station.  None of the personnel there would be at all effective in taking over Greenland. 

Well, if they ever get serious about this, the first move will be to beef up that base.

#10

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by Syt - Today at 04:37:25 AM

The oil price has fallen by about 20% in the past year (in dollar terms, the dollar has also fallen) and there are fears of an oil glut. I don't think that the oil companies would want lots of Venezuelan oil entering the market right now, it would damage their profits.

I guess the only flipside of all this, if any of Trump's so-called plan would ever happen, is that tanking the price of oil would hurt Putin.

It's the take of Peter Thiel's lickspittle Sebastian Kurz at least.