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[On the question of Chinese military support for Russia, the US is much more assertive than the EU, even though this support is directly threatening Europe's security. While EU has sanctioned not even a hand full of entities, US has sanctioned ~100 according to @FT. (5/13)]

#21

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 02:00:57 PM

So no idea on China but it strikes me as unlikely, largely because of the point on secondary sanctions in this thread about Scholz's trip to China, which I wasn't aware of. From a Handelsblatt reporter

Dana Heide
@Dana_Heide
At GER business daily @handelsblatt, I am focused on Germany/China relations. I have been following 🇩🇪🇨🇳 relations for ~8 years, was China-correspondent in Beijing from 2019-2022, back in Berlin since 22. Here are my key takeaways of chancellor Scholz' recent trip to China (1/13)
1.The trip showed that Xi Jinping is largely ignoring key concerns of the German government:
⚡️China's continuous support for Russia in its war against Ukraine, including support for its defense sector & 
⚡️ China's massive overcapacities flooding European markets. (2/13)
2.Germany might not have as much leverage on Beijing as the US has. But: The European market is of crucial importance to China - Chinese companies need to sell their massive overcapacities somewhere or else there will be huge losses that could result... (3/13)
... in an increase in unemployment - at a time where China's economy is already suffering.
Scholz is not using this leverage. Instead, during his visit he sent the signal that he doesn't even want the additional tariffs the EU-will probably impose. (4/13)
On the question of Chinese military support for Russia, the US is much more assertive than the EU, even though this support is directly threatening Europe's security. While EU has sanctioned not even a hand full of entities, US has sanctioned ~100 according to @FT.  (5/13)
3. Scholz is making the same mistake his predecessor Angela Merkel made: Instead of focusing on the long term and working for the interest of Germany and the German business community as a whole, he gives in to the (short term) needs of a few big companies. (6/13)
4. The China issue seems to have almost vanished from public discussion in GER. Because we @ @handelsblatt consider the relations as crucial, we published more than a dozen articles before, during & after the trip. But overall, GER media did less reporting than in 2022 (7/13)
Here are some of the reporting we did @sgusbeth @Benninghoff_M @annmeiritz @MartinGreive @CarstenVolkery.

Anyone who is interested please get a subscription and make sure that we can continue our extensive reporting. Thanks for reading! (8/13)
Exklusiv: Deutschlands Industrie löst sich nicht von ihrer China-Abhängigkeit - https://hbapp.handelsblatt.com/cmsid/100025576.html


Exklusiv: Deutsche Pharma-Inspekteure trauen sich nicht mehr nach China: Anti-Spionage-Gesetz gefährdet Versorgung - https://hbapp.handelsblatt.com/cmsid/100031126.html


(9/13)
EU-Bericht: So verzerrt China den Wettbewerb - https://hbapp.handelsblatt.com/cmsid/100031141.html


Exklusives Interview: Herr Botschafter, können Sie ausschließen, dass China eines Tages Taiwan angreift? - https://hbapp.handelsblatt.com/cmsid/100031492.html


(10/13)
So ernüchternd fällt die Bilanz der deutschen China-Politik aus - https://hbapp.handelsblatt.com/cmsid/100029521.html


Zwischen Kooperation und Konfrontation: Scholz' Gratwanderung in China - https://hbapp.handelsblatt.com/cmsid/100031110.html


(11/13)
Xi warnt Scholz vor Protektionismus und nennt Bedingung für einen Ukraine-Friedensgipfel - https://hbapp.handelsblatt.com/cmsid/100032521.html


China-Reise: Als Scholz Frieden wollte und Äpfel bekam - https://hbapp.handelsblatt.com/cmsid/100032924.html


(12/13)
Op Ed: Scholz wiederholt in Peking Merkels Fehler  - https://hbapp.handelsblatt.com/cmsid/100032750.htm

(13/13)

I feel like going from EU sanctioning a handful of companies, US hundreds to SWIFT would be going from 0 to 100 with very little prep for your ally (especially if the intent is supporting Ukraine/hurting Russia) or for your own domestic companies to prepare. The US can do it because of its huge financial power to basically force Europe into line (this happened over Iran where the Euro-members of the JCPOA tried to create an alternative after Trump's actions, but basically couldn't).

I think it'd be very different for doing that v one of the world's biggest economies.

#22

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by OttoVonBismarck - Today at 01:58:51 PM

As I see it, if one imagines a scale of military response from 1 to 10, if we assume as a matter of international law and the right to self-defense, Israel is within its rights to be at a "6" (the specific number doesn't matter for the example), there are concerns because Israel is actually at a "7."  That's a real issue and a real concern and fair basis for critical comment.  It's not anti-semitic or even "anti-Zionist" to say that Israel should back off from the "7" or even for the United States to say we don't and won't support seveny kind of behavior from the Israelis.

But the other concern is that critics of Israel are using Israel's improper prosecution of 7 level intensity as an excuse to argue that Israel MUST go to zero or at least to some very low number that leaves Hamas freedom of action and compromises Israel's security.  And in that sense the Horowitz/OvB critique has some merit.

The OvB-Netanyahu way is to kill everyone until there's no one standing.

There are disagreements to be expected.

This is a terrorist according to OvB and Raz.  I disagree.


When you are willing to kill 30-40 people to get at your target, a target that you're even sure is there, or is the right one, where is you military goal?  Is the goal the intended target or the 30 or 40 people that were killed around it?

To some, it does not matter because they were all guilty.  Just being Palestinians made them guilty, as Raz as constantly reminded us, there are polls showing support for Hamas among the Palestinians, it's enough to justify the killing of most of them and the eventual deportation of the others.  This is the plan from the beginning, we have the leaks, and we have the US comments reminding Israel that it won't accept it.  Doesn't mean they won't try.

Dude you are literally the dumbest faggot in history. If the Israelis wanted to "kill everyone" Gaza would have been depopulated months ago. It is quite clear that has not happened because Israel is largely (if imperfectly) following reasonable norms of warfare in urban areas. It can be expected to kill innocent noncombatants.

It looks nothing at all like intentional mass ethnic killings (whether you want to call it genocide or w/e) in any other comparable situation.

#23

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 01:56:39 PM

The OvB-Netanyahu way is to kill everyone until there's no one standing.

I'll let Otto speak for himself but clearly that statement is wrong re Netanyahu.  He has a nuclear arsenal and overwhelming conventional force at his disposal; if his "way" was to "kill everyone until there's no one standing" then by the end of the day on October 8, every man, woman and child in Gaza would either have been dead or sitting down.  Since nothing like that happened or has happened, the claim is false.

#24

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Josquius - Today at 01:56:10 PM

I'm not getting the Cass Report.
Gender care, especially for kids, is crap.
This was well known before, though the proof for it is useful.
But the transphobic culture war zealots are celebrating as if it proves everything they say right?- care being shit doesn't mean improve care it means...don't have care?

Umm, no.

Gender care for kids is not 'well known to be crap'.  Lots of the activist types keep trying to argue that it is "settled science", when in fact the science is anything but.

Yes, culture warriors on both sides are trying to argue the Cass Report - the "left" arguing that the Cass report unjustly invalidated a bunch of studies that would've proved their point (the Report says they were of low value), while the "right" tries to argue that it should equal a ban on youth gender care (the Report just says we need more and better data).

Not my experience of trans rights activist types at all.
They're endlessly going on about how rubbish the current situation is.
The huge waiting lists at every turn, having to open up about really personal stuff and validate their existence to people to get anywhere, having to outright lie about being stereotypically of their target gender as any hint of behaviour more stereotypical of the birth gender will get them booted...

Not to say their criticisms are all well founded and valid. There's good reason why sex change operations aren't just handed out on demand. Just listing the sorts of things they say here as to say they think the current system is good is just untrue.

#25

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by viper37 - Today at 01:51:29 PM

Hell I had to google who the existing governor is (Tiff Macklem), and I do know what the Bank of Canada does.

You've already made the decision to vote PP, but you don't know who Tiff Macklem is?

C'mon BB.  I like you, but you have to be serious here.

PP has been drumming that the BoC has been managed by an incompetent.  That BitCoin would save us from inflation.  And politicized man like you does not know Tiff Macklem?



Why do you even support Poilièvre?

Even beyond that though, he was last Governor in 2013 - over a decade ago.  Even putting aside his time as Governor of the Bank of England a lot of his career has been spent outside of Canada, with studying at Harvard and Oxford, his time with Goldman Sachs.  Even since stepping down from the Bank of England it's not clear to me where Carney spends most of his time - as he has roles with the UN, with Canadian companies, and also roles in the UK.

I like our Universities.  I won't snob them.

But nobody gets to be governor of the Bank of Canada with a Master of Finance from the University of Sherbrooke or by studying economics at University of Ottawa.


Look at the resume of all of these governors.  All of them, since the beginning.  Look at the top executives from GS.  Which one studies in a US Community College?  US CC are apparently very good and provide good career opportunities.  But they don't lead to a path at one of the top banks in the US.

And I don't think he could have worked at the Bank of England if he hadn't studied at Oxford.  Simple as that.  British and Americans tend to be much more elitists than we are about universities for these top jobs.  

Only our first governor was a graduate of McGill, I think.  All of them studied abroad and worked abroad.

I would invite you to look again more closely at Mark Carney's career, the part where he worked for GS' Toronto office, and then for the Government of Canada.

When it comes to economics and finance, this is the man I put my Faith on.  Not the man who says Tiff Macklem is incompetent and the CA$ should be replaced by BitCoins.

Now, there are other issues too.  Like I said, it's the Liberal Party.

#26

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by Josquius - Today at 01:50:59 PM

Another reason Percentages are popular with people who like to misrepresent data.

I don't want to print a sign saying I'll burn Tehran to the ground.  First because I couldn't do it, and second because I believe that would make me a bad person.

I will continue to come here and express my negative judgement of protestors who call for more dead Israelis.  You can call it whining if you want but I see things differently.

The issue isn't whether these people are cunts. They obviously are.
Its those pointing to them and going "See! See! Anyone who dares to speak against Israel is like this! Anti zionism is anti semitism!"
Its like saying there's no difference between those criticising the Saudi or Iranian regime and the "muslims are subhuman and should all be killed" brigade

Zionism is the idea that Jews have a right to their own country.  Anti-Zionism is idea that Jews do not have a right to their own country.  There is no real comparable ideology to this.  There aren't a large group of people arguing that Iran should be abolished.  This is not about criticism, praising rocket attacks, cheering on the death of soldiers and the destruction of the cities isn't criticism.  They want Israel gone.  That is the core of the Anti-zionism movement.

You're arguing against what I said by backing up what I said completely and insisting all anti zionists are the worst of the batch.

There's tonnes of people who would label themselves as anti zionist who don't approve of violence.

Some anti zionists oppose the existence of Israel and want it gone- again this takes a range of forms from kill them all to secularise Israel.
Others recognise history has happened, Israel is a fact, and instead simply oppose further Israeli expansionism.

And you know fine well it's not simply about whether Jews deserve self determination. That's not much of an issue at all outside of the true black anti semites.
The question is why does one groups right of self determination completely override another groups right of self determination?

#27

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 01:49:38 PM

Time will tell. Maybe. If Carney gets into that position.

I agree with those points.

I think they point to a wider issue/point which is that it's really difficult to tell how an outsider to politics (as opposed to policy or administration) will do when they move into politics. In Presidential systems you at least have electoral stages where they as an individual are sort of tested on that. I think it's more difficult in a parliamentary system.

I would also slightly add that I cannot of many jobs in government that are more different than central banker and Prime Minister (far less Leader of the Opposition).

One other slight thing aside from Canada, is I wouldn't say I'm anti-Carney but I'm aware I'll come across at least as starchily conservative on this. He endorsed Labour in a video message at their conference last year - and I think it's absolutely inappropriate for a former head of the BofE. It's a bit like the recent trend of BBC journalists leaving to set up their own podcasts, or senior civil servants publishing books after retirement giving their views on policy and politicians they worked for.

I think it's really corrosive both to public trust in the independence and impartiality of independent, impartial institutions, but also within the institutions themselves. Will (elected) politicians be able to be open, rely on and trust senior civil servants and central bankers if the expectation is they're either going to publish a tell-all (with themselves as hero) or get involved in politics. I think if you're at the top of those institutions you need to have a little bit of a self-denying ordinance about it - or I think there's a risk where you end up with an American system of perceived politicisation of institutions, without American patronage powers.

#28

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by viper37 - Today at 01:47:40 PM

As I see it, if one imagines a scale of military response from 1 to 10, if we assume as a matter of international law and the right to self-defense, Israel is within its rights to be at a "6" (the specific number doesn't matter for the example), there are concerns because Israel is actually at a "7."  That's a real issue and a real concern and fair basis for critical comment.  It's not anti-semitic or even "anti-Zionist" to say that Israel should back off from the "7" or even for the United States to say we don't and won't support seveny kind of behavior from the Israelis.

But the other concern is that critics of Israel are using Israel's improper prosecution of 7 level intensity as an excuse to argue that Israel MUST go to zero or at least to some very low number that leaves Hamas freedom of action and compromises Israel's security.  And in that sense the Horowitz/OvB critique has some merit.

The OvB-Netanyahu way is to kill everyone until there's no one standing.

There are disagreements to be expected.

This is a terrorist according to OvB and Raz.  I disagree.


When you are willing to kill 30-40 people to get at your target, a target that you're even sure is there, or is the right one, where is you military goal?  Is the goal the intended target or the 30 or 40 people that were killed around it?

To some, it does not matter because they were all guilty.  Just being Palestinians made them guilty, as Raz as constantly reminded us, there are polls showing support for Hamas among the Palestinians, it's enough to justify the killing of most of them and the eventual deportation of the others.  This is the plan from the beginning, we have the leaks, and we have the US comments reminding Israel that it won't accept it.  Doesn't mean they won't try.

#29

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Gups - Today at 01:43:04 PM

It's not a question of opinion, it just is wrong and anyone saying otherwise is either lying or has believed lies without bothering to go anywhere near the report.

#30

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by DGuller - Today at 01:33:10 PM

Recent experience shows that genocide fulfillment ratio, defined as the number of innocents killed divided by number of innocents you have the capability to kill, is close to 100% for Hamas, and close to zero percent for Israel.  It's not quite 100% because Hamas chose to take some innocent civilians as hostages, but it's close enough.  Sure, you can make an argument that if you give Hamas the power to kill every Israeli, they may start using it more judiciously and the fulfillment ratio would go down, but frankly I'd rather not test that theory.