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#1

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Legbiter - Today at 04:42:01 PM

There is a lot of work going into cheaper AA. The ridiculous cost of patriot has long been a problem with it that makes it non viable in a serious war.
Really sucks for now in Ukraine but I have fingers crossed we get some big breakthroughs in this space. I've heard a lot of small scale developments.

Yeah the boutique nature of Western arms plus the drone revolution are major obstacles to clear if NATO wants to credibly deter russia from any article 5 testing.

Also the Chinese will always prop the russian state because they are a very useful distraction.

#2

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Josquius - Today at 04:14:26 PM

Putin Just talked about cutting military spending in the coming years. It's either complete BS he felt he had to say to placate worrying people at home, or going ahead of future criticism when he is forced to cut back because of a failing economy.

It took 4 years of naval blockade combined with a war much bigger in scale to bring Imperial Germany to its knees. Give it time.

My prediction is 2 more years of conventional warfare. Then the pool of marginal males outside of Petersburg and Moscow willing to go eat a drone for the bonus will finally have been tapped. Then Putin has to decide on whether or not to conduct a general mobilization. 

The Russian summer offensive looks DOA, massive casualties for 3 villages of 20 people. The much more worrying thing is the stepped up city-buster strategy. Apparently both America and Europe can only produce artisanal quantities of Patriot interceptors.

There is a lot of work going into cheaper AA. The ridiculous cost of patriot has long been a problem with it that makes it non viable in a serious war.
Really sucks for now in Ukraine but I have fingers crossed we get some big breakthroughs in this space. I've heard a lot of small scale developments.

#3

Off the Record / Re: Climate Change/Mass Extinc...

Last post by Legbiter - Today at 03:51:44 PM

But this means in the summer when temperatures hit 30+ degrees we are slowly cooking the residents and strongly discourage the installation of air pump systems that can both heat and cool housing. As I say there have been protests in developments in London by current residents when there's "open days" visiting the flats where they're putting up signs in their windows telling people not to buy here because it's unlivably hot inside.

This would make perfect sense in Iceland if we had no geothermal heating. 

But our major problem is lava change.

#4

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 03:48:38 PM

Have there ever been any details leaked  about demands in peace negotiations?  I'm curious what Ukraine is willing to give up, I mean nobody wants it to happen but the best thing for their people is to give up land and be able to rebuild an economy/defense integrated with the west.

Not that I'm aware of from Ukraine - and it is the sort of honest, candid conversation that Ukraine's friends (like France, the UK, maybe Germany under Merz etc - not the more ambiguous ones like the US) should quietly behaving with Ukraine on what a settlement may look like and how support for Ukraine fits into it in more detailed, operational ways than the rather airy declarations we've had so far.

But probably no matter what they concede, Putin would just interpret as weakness.  Doesn't seem to be any end in sight of this madness.

I think the key point on this is that I think Putin really deeply, in his bones, does not believe Ukraine exists. He does not believe they're a nation with an identity, or a country capable of agency. It is all Western money, arms, guidance, propaganda. Ironically Ukraine's ability to defend itself is actually further proof of why the war is necessary as it demonstrates how powerful Western influence has become so close to Russia.

#5

Off the Record / Re: Climate Change/Mass Extinc...

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 03:40:14 PM

But both heating and air con work best in a pretty sealed system.
This is also how you keep heat in using other methods.
The best ways of cooling however tend to be about air flow and not being too sealed. Which doesn't fit together with air con.

But this is the point, isn't it? It also doesn't work for heating. We are building very well-insulated blocks of flats designed to keep the heat to improve energy efficiency in the winter and make the most out of heating systems. Therefore they are sealed and not big on airflow other rules around how far windows can open etc).

But this means in the summer when temperatures hit 30+ degrees we are slowly cooking the residents and strongly discourage the installation of air pump systems that can both heat and cool housing. As I say there have been protests in developments in London by current residents when there's "open days" visiting the flats where they're putting up signs in their windows telling people not to buy here because it's unlivably hot inside.

Maybe it's coming back to "Americans Pff" but as I say air con also conjures up super inefficient buildings where they don't even try and keep the cold air in.

Maybe - but I think the fact that it "conjures up" an image is exactly why I'd suggest it's primarily an aesthetic objection

I don't recognize that meme. What is it?

I don't think it's a meme or if it is I'm possibly the only person on the internet who uses it It's from Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy when Smiley's interrogating the mole whose reason for spying was aesthetic more than moral or political.

#6

Off the Record / Re: Climate Change/Mass Extinc...

Last post by Legbiter - Today at 03:25:54 PM

It's very:

I don't recognize that meme. What is it?

#7

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Legbiter - Today at 03:21:56 PM

Putin Just talked about cutting military spending in the coming years. It's either complete BS he felt he had to say to placate worrying people at home, or going ahead of future criticism when he is forced to cut back because of a failing economy.

It took 4 years of naval blockade combined with a war much bigger in scale to bring Imperial Germany to its knees. Give it time.

My prediction is 2 more years of conventional warfare. Then the pool of marginal males outside of Petersburg and Moscow willing to go eat a drone for the bonus will finally have been tapped. Then Putin has to decide on whether or not to conduct a general mobilization. 

The Russian summer offensive looks DOA, massive casualties for 3 villages of 20 people. The much more worrying thing is the stepped up city-buster strategy. Apparently both America and Europe can only produce artisanal quantities of Patriot interceptors.

#8

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Josquius - Today at 03:21:54 PM

Musk is talking about founding another party

Elon Musk's proposed new political party could focus on a few pivotal congressional seats | Elon Musk | The Guardian https://share.google/2n2GDSHoFFrn1ek0K

This is why fascists usually have rivals killed.

#9

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 03:13:15 PM

I think one unfortunate truth is that in part corruption and other kickbacks made politics a viable prime  career path for talented and ambitious people. It is right to fight this but it does shrink the talent pool.

As I say I think in Britain the corruption more often comes afterwards. It's the contacts you make that set you up working for a lobbyist somewhere (and this is why I actually think the House of Lords can be useful for politicians leaving senior politics because they still have to declare income etc - it's why Tony Blair has not become a peer). But I agree - and I'd add that you also, in the age of social media, need to be relatively thick skinned because you're going to get a lot of abuse (and a huge increase in death threats) every day. That's always been there but it was more difficult/rare - I know someone whose dad was an MP and he would sometimes get verbally abused in his constituency/my friend's home town which is not nice. But that was relatively rare compared to an MP's Twitter account.

I also think in the UK context a big shift has been the professionalisation - which was the right thing to do but, again, narrows the pool. So until the 90s the Commons general working hours were 2.30 to 10pm plus Friday morning (to allow MPs to travel to their constituencies). It's still that on Monday (to allow MPs to return from their constituencies), Tuesday and Wednesday sit 11.30 to 7pm and 9.30 to 5pm on a Thursday (when many MPs actually leave for their constituencies). But the Commons also used to sit a lot later - so over 70% of sittings before 2001 went on beyond 10pm, about 10% went on past 2am. That's now very rare. I think it's fair to say that culture also tied into the unhealthy side of political life which Kennedy and Salmond loved - particularly the drinking culture.

But part of the reason for that system was that many MPs had second jobs, particularly professionals - so the lawyers, journalists and doctors who could have a practice in the day and then arrive at the commons early evening for the rest of the day. So John Smith the Labour leader before Tony Blair became leader in part because he kept his hands clean in Labour factional fights in the 1980s. That's because he spent a lot of his time as a defence barrister on some very serious murder trials

It's right to move to a more professionalised system, with hours that are more plausible for people with a family, to try and have some form of HR department within parliament etc. But it does narrow the pool and I think probably favours more people who come up from councils and party activism than, say, well-connected professionals like John Smith. There are fewer people with a background in manual labour or trade unionism than used to be the case, but there are also fewer professionals - more and more MPs now come from backgrounds of party activism, local councils, think tanks, NGOs (I think those types of backgrounds have accounted for about 75% of newly elected Labour MPs in recent elections - and over 50% of newly elected MPs for the Tories and Lib Dems too).

#10

Off the Record / Re: Climate Change/Mass Extinc...

Last post by Legbiter - Today at 03:12:34 PM

Problem with A/C in non-wet and windy Europe  is that it kills humidity and gives lots of sore throats. Not good for hospitals and the rest.
(Better) insulation and blinds persianas in Castilian and Portuguese, opened in the morning and at night and closed during the day would be a good start, Southern Europe has been doing that for a long time.

I'm telling you guys, the Icelandic glaciers peaked in 1890 and have been slowly shrinking ever since, the local temperature here almost hit 16° today. Doom is coming.

Seriously though since North-West Europe is going to hit the upper-temp bands more frequently, just buy those small AC units that will keep a room or 2 cozy for grandma and make sure large organizations like hospitals and old folks resisdences don't roast during regular weather.