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General Category => Off the Record => Topic started by: jimmy olsen on May 22, 2012, 01:22:34 AM

Title: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on May 22, 2012, 01:22:34 AM
Looks like this rebellion may not be ground down by Assad after all.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/syrian-rebels-get-influx-of-arms-with-gulf-neighbors-money-us-coordination/2012/05/15/gIQAds2TSU_story_1.html

QuoteSyrian rebels get influx of arms with gulf neighbors' money, U.S. coordination

Syria will also be on the agenda at this weekend's NATO summit in Chicago, according to administration officials.

Although the alliance has repeatedly said it will not become involved in Syria, Turkey has indicated that it may invoke Article IV of the NATO Charter, which would open the door to consultations on threats to Turkish security and consideration of mutual defense provisions of Article V of the charter.

Last month, after Syrian forces fatally shot four fleeing Syrians who had crossed into Turkey, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that under Article V, "NATO has responsibilities to protect the Turkish border."

The Turks, who have grown increasingly anxious about the growing conflict in their neighboring country, have resisted direct military involvement without the international legitimacy of a United Nations Security Council resolution. Efforts to pass a resolution authorizing any intervention beyond humanitarian aid have been blocked by opposition from Russia and China.

But Turkey's position has been evolving, with military officials who once opposed any kind of non-political intervention now seeing the region becoming increasingly involved in the crisis. Shiites and Sunnis in neighboring Lebanon battled this week over the Syrian situation, raising concern both in Ankara and Washington.

Officials in the region said that Turkey's main concern is where the United States stands, and whether it and others will support armed protection for a safe zone along the border or back other options that have been discussed.

The United States and its allies remain formally committed to a U.N. peace plan being spearheaded by former secretary general Kofi Annan. Nearly two-thirds of an authorized 300 unarmed U.N. military monitors have arrived in Syria, with the rest due by the end of this month.

But even Annan has acknowledged the initiative has failed so far to significantly quell the violence or make progress toward a political transition. U.S. officials have said they feel constrained from declaring the mission a failure, at least until the full complement of monitors arrives. Annan himself has expressed pessimism over prospects for success.

Opposition figures said they have been in direct contact with State Department officials to designate worthy rebel recipients of arms and pinpoint locations for stockpiles, but U.S. officials said that there currently are no military or intelligence personnel on the ground in Syria.

The Pentagon has prepared options for Syria extending all the way to air assaults to destroy the nation's air defenses. U.S. officials, however, have said that such involvement remains very unlikely. Instead, they said, the United States and others are moving forward toward increased coordination of intelligence and arming for the rebel forces.

The Sunni-led gulf states, which would see the fall of Assad as a blow against Shiite Iran, would welcome such assistance, but they would like a more formal approach. One gulf official described the Obama administration's gradual evolution from an initial refusal to consider any action outside the political realm to a current position falling "between 'here's what we need to do' and 'we're doing it.'"

"Various people are hoping that the U.S. will step up its efforts to undermine or confront the Syrian regime," the gulf official said. "We want them to get rid" of Assad.

Since the uprising began early last year, U.S. efforts to promote a political solution have been stymied by Assad's political intransigence and his ongoing military assault on Syrian towns and cities, as well as the opposition's failure to agree on a unified political leadership or game plan.

Despite administration hopes that the Sunni-led Syrian National Congress would become an umbrella organization, it has failed to win support from minority Syrian Christians, Kurds, Druze and Assad's Alawite sect. All have resisted what they say is the group's domination by the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Free Syrian Army, the opposition military force, has resisted direction from the fractured political opposition. Its troops, many of them Syrian army defectors, are said to operate in independent entities spread across Syria, leading the United States and others in the past to express caution about assisting them.

Sly reported from Beirut.

Title: Re: Syrian rebels get influx of arms with gulf neighbors’ money, U.S. coordination
Post by: Jaron on May 22, 2012, 01:54:20 AM
Not sure how I feel about arming rebels.
Title: Re: Syrian rebels get influx of arms with gulf neighbors’ money, U.S. coordination
Post by: katmai on May 22, 2012, 02:06:24 AM
Quote from: Jaron on May 22, 2012, 01:54:20 AM
Not sure how I feel about arming rebels.

My thoughts on it :shifty:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffarm8.staticflickr.com%2F7099%2F7247431476_46370120f4.jpg&hash=299ec12d0219bfcfed7d669ea7b92cabc65051f8)
Title: Re: Syrian rebels get influx of arms with gulf neighbors’ money, U.S. coordination
Post by: Jaron on May 22, 2012, 02:10:08 AM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2F3%2F33%2FDead_Mexican_rebel.jpg&hash=0779c520b416cd8560f372a75a7a1cb60583c147)
Title: Re: Syrian rebels get influx of arms with gulf neighbors’ money, U.S. coordination
Post by: katmai on May 22, 2012, 02:14:57 AM
:cry:
Title: Re: Syrian rebels get influx of arms with gulf neighbors’ money, U.S. coordination
Post by: citizen k on May 22, 2012, 03:46:14 AM
Have you guys seen the trailer for that Meskin Revolution flick with Andy Garcia and Eva Longoria?


Title: Re: Syrian rebels get influx of arms with gulf neighbors’ money, U.S. coordination
Post by: katmai on May 22, 2012, 04:03:45 AM
Seen ads on TV, but not a trailer.
Title: Re: Syrian rebels get influx of arms with gulf neighbors’ money, U.S. coordination
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 22, 2012, 06:32:21 AM
I wonder how Bain Capital would've handled this crisis?
Title: Re: Syrian rebels get influx of arms with gulf neighbors’ money, U.S. coordination
Post by: derspiess on May 22, 2012, 08:18:08 AM
Quote from: katmai on May 22, 2012, 02:06:24 AM
Quote from: Jaron on May 22, 2012, 01:54:20 AM
Not sure how I feel about arming rebels.

My thoughts on it :shifty:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffarm8.staticflickr.com%2F7099%2F7247431476_46370120f4.jpg&hash=299ec12d0219bfcfed7d669ea7b92cabc65051f8)

Is that recent or from your college years?
Title: Re: Syrian rebels get influx of arms with gulf neighbors’ money, U.S. coordination
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 22, 2012, 08:31:06 AM
Quote from: derspiess on May 22, 2012, 08:18:08 AM
Is that recent or from your college years?

:lol:
Title: Re: Syrian rebels get influx of arms with gulf neighbors’ money, U.S. coordination
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on May 22, 2012, 01:00:37 PM
yay another bunch of muslim nutters with weapons  <_<
Arm the christians and make them re-establish Edessa!
Title: Re: Syrian rebels get influx of arms with gulf neighbors’ money, U.S. coordination
Post by: jimmy olsen on May 27, 2012, 06:45:17 AM
Looks like things are heating up again. :(
http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/26/11889756-clinton-condemns-syria-massacre-assads-rule-by-murder-must-end?lite
QuoteClinton condemns Syria massacre: Assad's 'rule by murder' must end

By msnbc.com staff and news services

Updated 5:39 a.m. ET Sunday: The perpetrators of a massacre that left more than 92 dead – including 32 young children – in Houla, Syria "must be identified and held to account," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Sunday.

The United Nations said the victims died in what activists described as an artillery barrage by government forces in the worst violence since the start of a peace plan to slow the flow of blood in Syria's uprising.

The bloodied bodies of children, some with their skulls split open, were shown in footage posted to YouTube purporting to show the victims of the shelling in the central town on Friday. The sound of wailing filled the room.

Clinton issued a statement early Sunday saying the United States condemned the attack "in the strongest possible terms". She also issued a warning for the country's leader, President Bashar Assad.

"Those who perpetrated this atrocity must be identified and held to account," she said. "And the United States will work with the international community to intensify our pressure on Assad and his cronies, whose rule by murder and fear must come to an end.

"We stand in solidarity with the Syrian people and the peaceful marchers in cities across Syria who have taken to the streets to denounce the massacre."

British Foreign Secretary William Hague said he was coordinating a "strong response" to the killings and would call for the U.N. Security Council to meet in the coming days.

Activists said Assad's forces shelled  Houla after security forces killed a protester and following skirmishes between troops and fighters from the Sunni Muslim-led insurgency fighting Syria's rulers, who belong to the minority Alawite sect.

However, Syrian authorities denied responsibility. "Women, children and old men were shot dead. This is not the hallmark of the heroic Syrian army," the country's foreign ministry spokesman Jihad Makdesi told reporters in Damascus on Sunday, according to Reuters.

Earlier, Syrian state television aired some of the footage disseminated by activists after the killing, calling the bodies victims of a massacre committed by "terrorist" gangs.

The carnage underlined just how far Syria is from any negotiated path out of the 14-month-old revolt against Assad.

The U.N. first reported the massacre on Friday. "The observers confirmed from examination of ordinances the use of artillery tank shells," Maj. Gen. Robert Mood said in a statement, without elaborating. "Whoever started, whoever responded and whoever carried out this deplorable act of violence should be held responsible."

The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said residents continued to flee the town, in central Homs province, in fear that artillery fire would resume.

Syria calls the revolt a "terrorist" conspiracy run from abroad, a veiled reference to Sunni Muslim Gulf powers that want to see weapons provided to an insurgency led by Syria's majority Sunnis against Assad, a member of the minority Alawite sect.

The U.N. says more than 9,000 people have been killed, most of them civilians, in the uprising.
Title: Re: Syrian rebels get influx of arms with gulf neighbors’ money, U.S. coordination
Post by: katmai on May 27, 2012, 06:54:45 AM
Quote from: derspiess on May 22, 2012, 08:18:08 AM


Is that recent or from your college years?

Just last week, for my birthday we had a costume party and Pinata!
Title: Re: Syrian rebels get influx of arms with gulf neighbors’ money, U.S. coordination
Post by: Ed Anger on May 27, 2012, 06:57:04 AM
Quote from: katmai on May 27, 2012, 06:54:45 AM
Quote from: derspiess on May 22, 2012, 08:18:08 AM


Is that recent or from your college years?

Just last week, for my birthday we had a costume party and Pinata!

I brought a sweater for you.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: katmai on May 27, 2012, 07:03:26 AM
And obviously kept it for yourself as I'm not wearing it!
Title: Re: Syrian rebels get influx of arms with gulf neighbors’ money, U.S. coordination
Post by: FunkMonk on May 27, 2012, 07:04:58 AM
Quote from: katmai on May 22, 2012, 02:06:24 AM
Quote from: Jaron on May 22, 2012, 01:54:20 AM
Not sure how I feel about arming rebels.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffarm8.staticflickr.com%2F7099%2F7247431476_46370120f4.jpg&hash=299ec12d0219bfcfed7d669ea7b92cabc65051f8)


:)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on May 27, 2012, 07:08:12 AM
Quote from: katmai on May 27, 2012, 07:03:26 AM
And obviously kept it for yourself as I'm not wearing it!


I wouldn't wear that orange abomination.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.alicia-logic.com%2Fcapsimages%2F3a_062Sweater.jpg&hash=32ee5439592da0d8ae451b5a5f199da44cb1a3a6)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: katmai on May 27, 2012, 07:09:35 AM
But it is your teams colors, go Browns!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on May 27, 2012, 07:10:50 AM
Hardly heating up again.  It's been constant and has possibly started to spread to Lebanon.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on May 27, 2012, 07:12:54 AM
Quote from: katmai on May 27, 2012, 07:09:35 AM
But it is your teams colors, go Browns!

Those are fightin' words varmit!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Zoupa on May 27, 2012, 12:52:46 PM
Smalls arms and explosives have been coming in from Lebanon and Turkey. It's stupid in both cases.

I can understand the Lebanese wanting to fuck over, finally, the Syrians and Assad, but Hezbollah is starting to stir about it. Firefights (isolated for now) in the south east.

The Turks under the present government are moving further from the EU with every decision they make. That might be a positive at this point though.  :P In any case, I'm glad they never joined (and never will).

In any case, if (when) Assad falls, Syria will get Taliban-grade islamism. So I don't understand the US arming the rebels.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 27, 2012, 01:36:26 PM
I don't undertstand France shielding Hezbollah from the IDF while they restock their rockets either, so we're even.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Zoupa on May 27, 2012, 01:43:55 PM
Right.

Link?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 29, 2012, 06:09:02 AM
Personally, I think it's completely adorable that the critics of the Libyan action are bleating about Obama not doing anything hardcore about Syria.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on May 29, 2012, 06:54:08 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 29, 2012, 06:09:02 AM
Personally, I think it's completely adorable that the critics of the Libyan action are bleating about Obama not doing anything hardcore about Syria.
I'm not.  Intervention in Libya was a mistake, intervention in Syria would be a disaster.

Edit:  Having said that I always thought Libya was more Cameron and Sarko than Obama.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 29, 2012, 07:10:21 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 29, 2012, 06:54:08 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 29, 2012, 06:09:02 AM
Personally, I think it's completely adorable that the critics of the Libyan action are bleating about Obama not doing anything hardcore about Syria.
I'm not.  Intervention in Libya was a mistake, intervention in Syria would be a disaster.

Of course you do; you're a European.  It was tough enough getting you people to acknowledge Bosnia '92, Kosovo '98 and Poland '39.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on May 29, 2012, 07:45:15 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 29, 2012, 07:10:21 AM
Poland '39.

Uhm, remind me, how long were the Brits/French fighting the Germans/Italians before the Americans joined? :P
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 29, 2012, 07:46:43 AM
Quote from: Syt on May 29, 2012, 07:45:15 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 29, 2012, 07:10:21 AM
Poland '39.

Uhm, remind me, how long were the Brits/French fighting the Germans/Italians before the Americans joined? :P

Wasn't our neighborhood, man.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on May 29, 2012, 08:32:29 AM
Fuck bombing Syria. Bomb Iran over the new embassy plot.



Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 29, 2012, 10:00:19 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 29, 2012, 06:09:02 AM
Personally, I think it's completely adorable that the critics of the Libyan action are bleating about Obama not doing anything hardcore about Syria.

Like who?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on May 29, 2012, 10:09:00 AM
Quote from: Syt on May 29, 2012, 07:45:15 AM
Uhm, remind me, how long were the Brits/French fighting the Germans/Italians before the Americans joined? :P

Yeah that was weird.  The Euros should really be grateful to the Germans for declaring war on us more than anything else.

Though, you have to admit, that lend lease thing was pretty nice.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 29, 2012, 10:13:24 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 29, 2012, 10:00:19 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 29, 2012, 06:09:02 AM
Personally, I think it's completely adorable that the critics of the Libyan action are bleating about Obama not doing anything hardcore about Syria.

Like who?

Romney yesterday:
QuoteAfter nearly a year and a half of slaughter, it is far past time for the United States to begin to lead and put an end to the Assad regime," Romney said in a written statement. "President Obama can no longer ignore calls from congressional leaders in both parties to take more assertive steps."

McCain yesterday:
QuoteMcCain went for the jugular, "This is a shameful episode in American history...This administration has a feckless foreign policy, which abandons American leadership." He finished with one more blow: "The only conclusion you can draw is that this president wants to kick the can down the road."

And of course, plenty of your favorite conservative columnists.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on May 29, 2012, 10:13:35 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on May 27, 2012, 12:52:46 PM
In any case, if (when) Assad falls, Syria will get Taliban-grade islamism. So I don't understand the US arming the rebels.

While I'm not quite sure it would be Taliban-level, I agree that it will in many ways be worse than the Assad regime.  The devil you know, and all that.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Barrister on May 29, 2012, 10:16:17 AM
Quote from: derspiess on May 29, 2012, 10:13:35 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on May 27, 2012, 12:52:46 PM
In any case, if (when) Assad falls, Syria will get Taliban-grade islamism. So I don't understand the US arming the rebels.

While I'm not quite sure it would be Taliban-level, I agree that it will in many ways be worse than the Assad regime.  The devil you know, and all that.

:huh:

I could understand that reasoning with Mubarak. 'he might be a son-of-a-bitch, but he's our son-of-a-bitch' and all that.  But Assad?  He's pretty consistently opposed to everything the US and West has ever done.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on May 29, 2012, 10:18:46 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 29, 2012, 10:13:24 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 29, 2012, 10:00:19 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 29, 2012, 06:09:02 AM
Personally, I think it's completely adorable that the critics of the Libyan action are bleating about Obama not doing anything hardcore about Syria.

Like who?

Romney yesterday:
QuoteAfter nearly a year and a half of slaughter, it is far past time for the United States to begin to lead and put an end to the Assad regime," Romney said in a written statement. "President Obama can no longer ignore calls from congressional leaders in both parties to take more assertive steps."

McCain yesterday:
QuoteMcCain went for the jugular, "This is a shameful episode in American history...This administration has a feckless foreign policy, which abandons American leadership." He finished with one more blow: "The only conclusion you can draw is that this president wants to kick the can down the road."

And of course, plenty of your favorite conservative columnists.

Both Romney and McCain were pro-intervention in Libya, ya goof.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on May 29, 2012, 10:19:03 AM
Who would have thought NOT getting involved in the never ending squables in the Middle East would be considered "feckless".  I don't think McCain is serious but if he is thank Hod he was not elected President.  He would have our boys dying in pointless M-E squables right and left and getting manipulated by various d-bags into doing their fighting for them. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on May 29, 2012, 10:19:56 AM
Quote from: Barrister on May 29, 2012, 10:16:17 AM
:huh:

I could understand that reasoning with Mubarak. 'he might be a son-of-a-bitch, but he's our son-of-a-bitch' and all that.  But Assad?  He's pretty consistently opposed to everything the US and West has ever done.

Yeah and even if he wins he will be vastly weakened and completely isolated.  Frankly I do not know what Assad thinks the outcome of this is going to be.  It cannot be good for him in any case.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on May 29, 2012, 10:22:01 AM
Quote from: Barrister on May 29, 2012, 10:16:17 AM
:huh:

I could understand that reasoning with Mubarak. 'he might be a son-of-a-bitch, but he's our son-of-a-bitch' and all that.  But Assad?  He's pretty consistently opposed to everything the US and West has ever done.

Yeah, he's an ass.  And if we could magically replace him with a pro-western government (or at least a non-anti-western government) I'd be all for his removal.  But on balance I don't think he's any worse than what is in store if the rebels win. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on May 29, 2012, 10:23:45 AM
Quote from: Valmy on May 29, 2012, 10:19:56 AM
Frankly I do not know what Assad thinks the outcome of this is going to be.  It cannot be good for him in any case.

He doesn't want to be the one to have let the family business go under.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 29, 2012, 10:24:44 AM
Quote from: derspiess on May 29, 2012, 10:13:35 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on May 27, 2012, 12:52:46 PM
In any case, if (when) Assad falls, Syria will get Taliban-grade islamism. So I don't understand the US arming the rebels.

While I'm not quite sure it would be Taliban-level, I agree that it will in many ways be worse than the Assad regime.  The devil you know, and all that.

Just don't de-Baathify everybody in the Syrian fucking government and military, like that imbecile Bremer did.

Pick a general that can stabilize things, and go with him.  That's how we should've done it in Iraq; once we broke the damned thing, there were plenty of Iraqi generals with troops in the barracks ready to go.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 29, 2012, 10:26:17 AM
Quote from: derspiess on May 29, 2012, 10:18:46 AM
Both Romney and McCain were pro-intervention in Libya, ya goof.

They were incredibly critical of the President's pacing, and you know that.

And let's not forget the Teabaggers' screaming about "leading from behind" with NATO.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on May 29, 2012, 10:26:55 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 29, 2012, 10:24:44 AM
Just don't de-Baathify everybody in the Syrian fucking government and military, like that imbecile Bremer did.

Pick a general that can stabilize things, and go with him.  That's how we should've done it in Iraq; once we broke the damned thing, there were plenty of Iraqi generals with troops in the barracks ready to go.

I agree, but you know that's not how it will happen.  We have to extend to them TEH BLESSSINGS OF DEMOCRACEH.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 29, 2012, 10:37:43 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 29, 2012, 10:26:17 AM
They were incredibly critical of the President's pacing, and you know that.

And let's not forget the Teabaggers' screaming about "leading from behind" with NATO.

wut?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 29, 2012, 10:40:14 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 29, 2012, 10:37:43 AM
wut?

Meh, you don't even finish watching movies.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 29, 2012, 10:44:47 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 29, 2012, 10:40:14 AM
Meh, you don't even finish watching movies.

RAGESULK ACORN
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Barrister on May 29, 2012, 10:53:50 AM
Quote from: Valmy on May 29, 2012, 10:19:56 AM
Quote from: Barrister on May 29, 2012, 10:16:17 AM
:huh:

I could understand that reasoning with Mubarak. 'he might be a son-of-a-bitch, but he's our son-of-a-bitch' and all that.  But Assad?  He's pretty consistently opposed to everything the US and West has ever done.

Yeah and even if he wins he will be vastly weakened and completely isolated.  Frankly I do not know what Assad thinks the outcome of this is going to be.  It cannot be good for him in any case.

I suspect he just has no other options.  If he gives up power or goes into exile he's rightly worried he'll be prosecuted for crimes against humanity.  It is what has happened to Hosni Mubarak.  I don't think he's on good enough terms with the usual home for former despots, Saudi Arabia, to flee there.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Grey Fox on May 29, 2012, 11:00:02 AM
There's always Zimbabwe
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on May 29, 2012, 11:00:37 AM
Quote from: Syt on May 29, 2012, 07:45:15 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 29, 2012, 07:10:21 AM
Poland '39.

Uhm, remind me, how long were the Brits/French fighting the Germans/Italians before the Americans joined? :P
Not nearly as long as Poland was.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Neil on May 29, 2012, 11:27:21 AM
Quote from: Barrister on May 29, 2012, 10:53:50 AM
Quote from: Valmy on May 29, 2012, 10:19:56 AM
Quote from: Barrister on May 29, 2012, 10:16:17 AM
:huh:

I could understand that reasoning with Mubarak. 'he might be a son-of-a-bitch, but he's our son-of-a-bitch' and all that.  But Assad?  He's pretty consistently opposed to everything the US and West has ever done.
Yeah and even if he wins he will be vastly weakened and completely isolated.  Frankly I do not know what Assad thinks the outcome of this is going to be.  It cannot be good for him in any case.
I suspect he just has no other options.  If he gives up power or goes into exile he's rightly worried he'll be prosecuted for crimes against humanity.  It is what has happened to Hosni Mubarak.  I don't think he's on good enough terms with the usual home for former despots, Saudi Arabia, to flee there.
Yeah.  Vastly weakened and completely isolated but still in power is better than dead, which will be the result of him losing.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on May 29, 2012, 11:29:46 AM
Quote from: Barrister on May 29, 2012, 10:53:50 AM
I suspect he just has no other options.  If he gives up power or goes into exile he's rightly worried he'll be prosecuted for crimes against humanity.  It is what has happened to Hosni Mubarak.  I don't think he's on good enough terms with the usual home for former despots, Saudi Arabia, to flee there.
Plus he's already been isolated for years so it's not significantly worse.  The family business depends on him staying.  Also, as you say, he's not mates with the sort of people who offer tyrants a nice villa - though Tunisia's offered to take in the Assads if they step down immediately and said they'll support military intervention if they don't - the Iranians have too much invested to offer Assad a holiday home.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on June 01, 2012, 11:50:14 AM
Derka Derka!

http://theaviationist.com/2012/05/31/diy-anti-aircraft-system/

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcencio4.files.wordpress.com%2F2012%2F05%2Ft-homs75.jpg&hash=d628a82b371b1cebba063d6a64a5950eb793f4f8)

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zootpatrol.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2009%2F09%2Fateam-hannibal-242x300.jpg&hash=f315d6cfbae17c987bdfae29fbfe84c85b7267c0)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 09, 2012, 10:15:29 PM
Looks like government control is slipping again.  :hmm:

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/09/12140174-battle-is-in-damascus-as-syrian-tanks-fire-in-12-hour-exchange?lite
QuoteBy msnbc.com news services

DAMASCUS, Syria -- Residents of Syria's capital spoke about a night of shooting and explosions in the worst violence during the uprising against President Bashar Assad.

The nearly 12 hours of fighting in Damascus suggested a new boldness among armed rebels, who previously kept a low profile in the capital. It also showed a willingness by the regime to unleash in the capital the sort of elevated force against restive neighborhoods it has used to crush opponents elsewhere.

For the first time in the uprising, witnesses said, regime tanks opened fire in the city's streets, with shells slamming into residential buildings.

"Yesterday was a turning point in the conflict," said Maath al-Shami, an opposition activist in the capital. "There were clashes in Damascus that lasted hours. The battle is in Damascus now."

Blasts shook the neighborhoods of Qaboun and Barzeh until about 1:30 a.m. on Saturday.

"We spent a night of fear," one resident said, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals. The resident said the shooting and explosions in the capital "were the worst so far."

As tanks fired shells, troops clashed with rebels in the two neighborhoods, al-Shami said via Skype. He said at least four people were killed.

The battles began when troops opened fire on anti-Assad protest marches and rebels responded, witnesses said. In one brazen attack, the rebels struck a power plant in Qaboun with rocket-propelled grenades, setting fire to a generator and causing blackouts. The attack left buses charred and smashed a car. A video of the aftermath taken by U.N. observers said a soldier was killed in the RPG attack.

One resident said a large sports venue, the Abbasid stadium, had been transformed into an army barracks as the military tried to reinforce the capital, and that increasing numbers of checkpoints had been set up.

Earlier, a car bomb aimed at a bus carrying security men exploded in a Damascus suburb, killing at least two, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

Troops also clashed with rebels from the Free Syrian Army in Damascus' Kfar Souseh district when rebels attacked a military checkpoint. The FSA, which groups defectors from the Syrian military with protesters who have taken up weapons, had made an unusually public appearance Thursday night in Kfar Souseh, overtly joining a large opposition rally. The bolder moves were a strong sign the ragtag group is pushing to take its fight to the regime's base of power.

At least 17 killed in Daraa, activists say
To the south, regime forces heavily shelled a district of the city of Daraa until the early hours Saturday, smashing homes, according to activists. Daraa is the city where the uprising against Assad's regime first erupted in March 2011.

"People were taken by surprise while in their homes," Adel al-Omari, a local activist, said of the shelling, including mortar fire that hit the Mahata district.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said 17 people were killed in the shelling. The Local Coordination Committees said 19 civilians lost their lives, include a father and two children from one family and five members of another family.

The LCC and the Observatory also reported shelling and clashes in the central city of Homs, one of the main battlegrounds of the uprising. Both groups said troops stormed Homs' posh neighborhood of Ghouta and the Observatory said security forces are conducting raids and searching for wanted people in the area.

U.N. releases massacre video
Also Saturday, U.N. observers in the country ostensibly to monitor the cease-fire issued the first independent video images from the scene of a reported massacre last week in a remote farming village. Activists say up to 78 people, including women and children, were shot, hacked and burned to death in Mazraat al-Qubair on Wednesday.

The video, taken in the U.N. visit a day earlier, showed blood splashed on a wall pockmarked with bullet holes and soaking a nearby mattress. A shell punched through one wall of a house. Another home was burnt on the inside with dried blood was splashed on floors.

One man wearing a red-and-white checked scarf to cover his face, pointed at a 2008 calendar adorning a wall, bearing the photo of a lightly-bearded, handsome man. "This is the martyr," the resident, sobbing. He sat on the floor, amid strewn colorful blankets, heaving with tears. It was not immediately clear if he was a resident of the village or related to the man in the photograph.

"They killed children," said another unidentified resident. "My brother, his wife and their seven children, the oldest was in the sixth grade. They burnt down his house."

After the observers' visit, U.N. spokeswoman Sausan Ghosheh said the scene held evidence of a "horrific crime" and that the team could smell the stench of burned corpses and saw body parts strewn around the now deserted village, once home to about 160 people.

She said residents' accounts of the mass killing were "conflicting," and that the team was still cross checking the names of the missing and dead with those supplied by nearby villagers.

Opposition activists and Syrian government officials blamed each other for the killings. Activists accused pro-government militiamen known as "shabiha." A government statement on the state-run news agency SANA said "an armed terrorist group" killed nine women and children before Hama authorities were called and killed the attackers.

Thousands have been killed since the crisis began in March last year. The U.N.'s latest estimate is 9,000 dead, but that is from April and it has been unable to update it. Syrian activists put the toll at more than 13,000.

The latest escalations are another blow to international envoy Kofi Annan's peace plan, which aims to end the country's bloodletting. Annan brokered a cease-fire that went into effect on April 12 but has since been violated nearly every day since and never properly took hold.

Russia on Saturday indicated it would not oppose the departure of Assad if such a move is a result of a dialogue between Syrians themselves and is not enforced through external pressure.

"If the Syrians agree between each other, we will only be happy to support such a solution," Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 12, 2012, 07:15:25 PM
Fucking Russians <_<

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/12/12190111-clinton-says-russia-is-sending-gunships-to-syria-could-escalate-conflict-quite-dramatically?lite

QuoteBy Jim Miklaszewski and Courtney Kube, NBC News

Russia is sending a new shipment of helicopter gunships to Syria, a move that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Tuesday could escalate the conflict "quite dramatically."

Follow @msnbc_world

Syria already has a fleet of the Russian gunships which are armed with rockets, cannons and heavy machine guns.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is one of Russia's main weapons customers, according to Reuters, and Moscow sold a large shipment to the country as recently as mid-May.

Russia's business relationship with Syria has presented a problem on the U.N. Security Council, which has been seeking a unified stance in confronting the Assad regime. Russia along with China -- two of the council's five permanent members -- has been reluctant to admonish the Syrian leader, despite the growing bloody toll in a conflict that a U.N. official said Tuesday had all the characteristics of a civil war.

The violence that has left more than 10,000 people dead since the uprising against Assad's government began 15 months ago. Most of the dead were civilians, according to opposition groups.

It is not clear when this latest batch of attack helicopters is due to arrive in Syria and there is no indication the U.S. would attempt to intercept the shipment. Officials refused to divulge the source of the intelligence reports.

NBC's Richard Engel talks about the situation in Syria and descriptions by a top U.N. official who described "large chunks" of Syrian cities as being under the control of the anti-government rebels.

Secretary Clinton disclosed the shipment during a question-and-answer session at the Brookings Institution.

Meantime, there is a debate as to whether Russia and China have slowed a potential U.N. military intervention in Syria.

In an online question-and-answer for The New Yorker, writer Philip Gourevitch wrote that it was unlikely that Western forces would get involved in the Syrian conflict, even if China and Russia were out of the equation. He said that China and Russia have given "someone for us to blame."

"I'm not at all sure that there's any Western appetite to go into Syria," Gourevitch said.

"When Russia and China refused to sign on to a toothless resolution condemning Assad and calling for him to step down early this year, Hillary Clinton called their action (or inaction) 'despicable,'" Gourevitch said. "But without their resistance, we would not look more effective -- and we might look much less effective."
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 12, 2012, 09:00:47 PM
QuoteIt is not clear when this latest batch of attack helicopters is due to arrive in Syria and there is no indication the U.S. would attempt to intercept the shipment

Don't need to intercept the shipment.

Time for a No-Fly Zone and ROE, courtesy of the Sixth Fleet. Let 'em get delivered and then blow them out of the sky, and then kill their ground crews and Russian trainers.

And fuck the English; there'll be no faggoty coward Jackson cockblocking us on killing Russians this time.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 13, 2012, 11:30:54 AM
French Foreign Minister is talking No-Fly Zones as a very real military intervention option.

Way to go, France.  Obviously, I sold Hollande short.  :frog:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on June 13, 2012, 11:39:33 AM
I'm not enthused about bombing Syria.


Maybe it is Assad's hot wife. Or that we'll be suckered again into doing the heavy lifting since Europe sucks.

Libya:

Europe: We need a no fly zone
Drunk Uncle Sam: Ok
Europe: Oh noes, their air defense network is up. We need you to knock it down.
Drunk Uncle Sam: *sigh* {$1 billion worth of missiles is fired off}
Europe: WE'LL TAKE IT FROM HERE
Drunk Uncle Sam: What a bunch of fags
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 13, 2012, 11:40:46 AM
It's nothing our fleet or air wings in Italy, etc, can't handle.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on June 13, 2012, 11:43:32 AM
I just don't think it is really worth the effort.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 13, 2012, 11:45:02 AM
Sure it is.  Eliminating a major Iranian butt buddy?  Helping alleviate the pressure on Lebanon, and by extension, Israel?  Hell, this is more worth it than Libya ever was.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on June 13, 2012, 11:48:05 AM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffarm4.staticflickr.com%2F3151%2F2714979509_bbd375bf83.jpg&hash=06b8251fbd9a76834b28c7839cd3cc0b31c7634c)

I might be persuaded if I actually see a MAJOR European involvement. Otherwise, let 'em die.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on June 13, 2012, 11:48:54 AM
Besides, we need to jam a brigade up Yemen's ass first.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 13, 2012, 11:59:13 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on June 13, 2012, 11:48:05 AM
I might be persuaded if I actually see a MAJOR European involvement. Otherwise, let 'em die.

Well, we all know the Europeans can be involved only so much, what with their military capability exceeded by most Texas high school football teams.  But it's the genuine effort that matters.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on June 13, 2012, 12:35:10 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on June 13, 2012, 11:48:05 AM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffarm4.staticflickr.com%2F3151%2F2714979509_bbd375bf83.jpg&hash=06b8251fbd9a76834b28c7839cd3cc0b31c7634c)

I might be persuaded if I actually see a MAJOR European involvement. Otherwise, let 'em die.


I agree with him. Ed is correct.  The US does not need to be bitched out by Euros because it is trying to be the world's police man.  Any new gubbermint will be a Sunni crackpot anyway, so we'd only be speeding our own demise.

Let the Euros or the Turks or the Roswell Greys do the shit work this time.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 13, 2012, 12:39:24 PM
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on June 13, 2012, 12:35:10 PM
I agree with him. Ed is correct.  The US does not need to be bitched out by Euros because it is trying to be the world's police man.

Weak.  We are the world's policeman, whether the world wants it or not.

QuoteAny new gubbermint will be a Sunni crackpot anyway, so we'd only be speeding our own demise.

Let the Euros or the Turks or the Roswell Greys do the shit work this time.

Bah.  Bah, I say!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on June 13, 2012, 12:44:33 PM
What do we get out of being the world's policeman?  Where is our ticket revenue?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on June 13, 2012, 02:25:57 PM
Quote from: DGuller on June 13, 2012, 12:44:33 PM
What do we get out of being the world's policeman?  Where is our ticket revenue?
4 trillion in the opposite direction.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: HVC on June 13, 2012, 02:27:01 PM
Quote from: DGuller on June 13, 2012, 12:44:33 PM
What do we get out of being the world's policeman?  Where is our ticket revenue?
Cheaper oil prices :P
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on June 19, 2012, 06:16:35 AM
Modern British power in action :w00t:
QuoteBritain stops Russian ship carrying attack helicopters for Syria

A Russian ship believed to be carrying helicopters and missiles for Syria has been effectively stopped in its tracks off the coast of Scotland after its insurance was cancelled at the behest of the British government.
By Richard Spencer, Adrian Blomfield and David Millward8:30AM BST 19 Jun 2012

The British marine insurer Standard Club said it had withdrawn cover from all the ships owned by Femco, a Russian cargo line, including the MV Alaed.

"We were made aware of the allegations that the Alaed was carrying munitions destined for Syria," the company said in a statement. "We have already informed the ship owner that their insurance cover ceased automatically in view of the nature of the voyage."

British security officials confirmed they had told Standard Club that providing insurance to the shipment was likely to be a breach of European Union sanctions against the Syrian regime.

They said they were continuing to monitor the ship, which has been the subject of a fierce international row since US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton last week revealed it was adding to the arsenal of weaponry available for Mr Assad to use against rebellious Syrian towns.

"We have various ways of keeping track of this ship and that is what we are doing," a source told The Daily Telegraph.
The MV Alaed picked up its cargo of Mi25 helicopters – known as "flying tanks" – from the Russian port of Kaliningrad, where they had been sent to the state-owned manufacturer Mil's "Factory 150" for servicing and repairs.

They were originally sold to the Syrian government by Moscow, its major arms supplier, at the end of the Soviet era.

The ship headed south through the North Sea towards the English Channel on its way to the Mediterranean and, most likely, the Syrian port of Tartous, also home to a Russian naval base.

But under sanctions announced last year, the EU has banned not only exporting arms to Syria but also providing related services such as insurance.

As first revealed by The Sunday Telegraph at the weekend, the US notified the UK government that the insurance was British last week.

As it neared the Dutch coast, the authorities there also hailed the ship, the security sources said, and it made an abrupt turn, heading towards Scotland. It was last night now off the coast of the Hebrides but with no insurance covering the ship security sources say it may now have to return to port.

In their attempts to bombard rebel towns into submission, Assad regime forces have increasingly brought up helicopters, strafing the towns of Haffa and Rastan last week.

Their use, condemned by Kofi Annan, the UN peace envoy, has not stopped Russia's continued insistence on providing arms to the Syrians. Moscow is continuing with a 2007 contract to provide more than 20 MiG-29 M2 fighter aircraft, according to the Americans.

Russia also announced it was preparing to send an elite unit of marines to Tartous, a move which a Western defence source said was intended as a powerful signal that Russia would not tolerate foreign military intervention.

Classified US satellite images last week indicated that loading work had begun on two amphibious landing vessels, the Nikolai Filchenkov and the Caesar Kunikov, at the Crimean naval base of Sebastopol.

A Russian officer quoted by the Interfax news agency said they would carry marines charged with protecting the security of Russian citizens and evacuating a part of the base, marking the first time Moscow has sent troops to Syria since the uprising against Mr Assad began more than 15 months ago.

If fully loaded, the two vessels could carry as many as 600 troops and 24 tanks.

Russia's Nezavisimaya Gazeta, citing anonymous military sources, suggested that the soldiers would be drawn from the elite Pskov airborne brigades and special forces units stationed in Chechnya.

Russia was particularly unnerved after William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, and other Western officials compared the slaughter in Syria to the civil war in Bosnia in the 1990s, the Western defence source said.

They believed the comparisons amounted to a coded signal that the West was preparing to authorise a Nato mission to Syria similar to the peacekeeping operation mounted in Bosnia and later in Kosovo.

But the deployment also signalled that Russia was hedging its bets, according to the source.

"The purpose is threefold," he said. "First, they want to send a signal to the West about military intervention. Second, they want to demonstrate support for Assad.

"But they are also preparing for the worst and realise that the worsening situation may leave them no choice but to evacuate their nationals as a last resort. If that happens, it is game over for the Russians.

"They project strength, but know their position in Syria is actually a weak one. It may be this is a last throw of the dice."

At a meeting on the sides of the G20 summit in Mexico, Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, agreed a political process was needed to "stop the bloodshed in Syria", according to a joint statement.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 19, 2012, 06:24:51 AM
It's not exactly as romantic as the HMS Solebay intercepting slavers off the coast of West Africa, but RIGHT WOTS ALL THIS THEN YOUR LINE OF INSURANCE IS CANCELLED GUVNUH sorta works.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 19, 2012, 06:26:36 AM
QuoteRussia also announced it was preparing to send an elite unit of marines to Tartous, a move which a Western defence source said was intended as a powerful signal that Russia would not tolerate foreign military intervention.

Classified US satellite images last week indicated that loading work had begun on two amphibious landing vessels, the Nikolai Filchenkov and the Caesar Kunikov, at the Crimean naval base of Sebastopol.

A Russian officer quoted by the Interfax news agency said they would carry marines charged with protecting the security of Russian citizens and evacuating a part of the base, marking the first time Moscow has sent troops to Syria since the uprising against Mr Assad began more than 15 months ago.

If fully loaded, the two vessels could carry as many as 600 troops and 24 tanks.

Russia's Nezavisimaya Gazeta, citing anonymous military sources, suggested that the soldiers would be drawn from the elite Pskov airborne brigades and special forces units stationed in Chechnya.

Oh, fuck yeah.  Let's mix this shit up already, Ivan. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on June 19, 2012, 06:39:24 AM
 :huh:

So either they indeed want to evacuate their  base, which mean they are abandoning Assad, or they are there to stay which can be extremely dangerous when sophisticated turkish soldiers start steamrolling Syria
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Monoriu on June 19, 2012, 06:42:48 AM
Can't Putin declare that the Russian state will insure the ship with immediate effect?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 19, 2012, 06:44:49 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 19, 2012, 06:42:48 AM
Can't Putin declare that the Russian state will insure the ship with immediate effect?

Leave it to Mono to ask, in the middle of an international incident, if there's a rider involved.  :lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 19, 2012, 07:11:01 AM
Quote from: Tamas on June 19, 2012, 06:39:24 AM
sophisticated turkish soldiers

"I am surrounded by cattle."
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on June 19, 2012, 08:01:33 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 19, 2012, 06:24:51 AM
It's not exactly as romantic as the HMS Solebay intercepting slavers off the coast of West Africa
:yeahright:  :mad:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 19, 2012, 08:24:31 AM
Quote from: DGuller on June 19, 2012, 08:01:33 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 19, 2012, 06:24:51 AM
It's not exactly as romantic as the HMS Solebay intercepting slavers off the coast of West Africa
:yeahright:  :mad:

Dude.  Insurance was cancelled.  Not romantic in the slightest.

That's like not using the Royal Marines on Goose Green, but sending in some real estate agents for an assessment.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on June 19, 2012, 08:27:28 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 19, 2012, 08:24:31 AM
Quote from: DGuller on June 19, 2012, 08:01:33 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 19, 2012, 06:24:51 AM
It's not exactly as romantic as the HMS Solebay intercepting slavers off the coast of West Africa
:yeahright:  :mad:

Dude.  Insurance was cancelled.  Not romantic in the slightest.

That's like not using the Royal Marines on Goose Green, but sending in some real estate agents for an assessment.

:yes:

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on June 19, 2012, 08:34:46 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 19, 2012, 08:24:31 AM
Quote from: DGuller on June 19, 2012, 08:01:33 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 19, 2012, 06:24:51 AM
It's not exactly as romantic as the HMS Solebay intercepting slavers off the coast of West Africa
:yeahright:  :mad:

Dude.  Insurance was cancelled.  Not romantic in the slightest.

That's like not using the Royal Marines on Goose Green, but sending in some real estate agents for an assessment.
IT'S IN THE EYE OF THE BEHOLDER.  :mad:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on June 19, 2012, 01:46:12 PM


Quote
Alawite fortress and Sunni wasteland in Syria's Homs

BEIRUT (Reuters) - The view from the rooftops makes the balance of power clear. In some neighborhoods, cars and people scurry about. In others, only the scarred shells of empty homes remain.

After months of fierce military assaults and rebel ambushes in Homs, the centre of Syria's 15-month-old revolt against President Bashar al-Assad has effectively become two cities.

Along the scorched and crumbling skyline is a well-preserved archipelago of districts, home to Syria's minority Alawite sect, the offshoot of Shi'ite Islam to which Assad belongs.

Alawites have mostly sided with Assad and have barricaded themselves in Homs - protected by the Syrian army that has now made their neighborhoods a second home.

"We're always nervous, but we will stay and survive," says Abu Ali, a 60-year old sitting in his mini market in the Alawite neighborhood of Zahra.

"It is the Sunni areas that are empty - at least the ones that asked for 'freedom'," he said, referring to districts that backed the mainly Sunni Muslim uprising against Assad.

The rebellious districts that once belonged to Sunni Muslims are ghost towns. Only about three of the 16 Sunni districts have not been pummeled by military assaults.

Many Alawites say they feel they have no choice but to back Assad, fearing retaliatory slaughter for religious affiliation with the president as the revolt becomes increasingly sectarian.

"The Sunnis have been oppressed," said one Alawite man. "But Alawites will be the victims."

Abu Ali settles in his chair as cans and jars lined up in his store rattle from the daily bursts of gunfire and rockets. Behind him, an Assad portrait adorns the back wall.

"Those other people are the terrorists," he says, pointing to several cases of Alawites being kidnapped or killed by rebels. " I can tell you what is happening: War."

SLEEPING IN BUTCHER SHOPS

More people are starting to agree. The United Nations' peacekeeping chief recently said Syria's conflict looked like a civil war.

While many areas have still escaped sectarian brutality, the heart of Syria's conflict is a chilling glimpse of what the worst case scenario may be: a bloody struggle that tears the country into a jigsaw of warring statelets.

The Syrian government describes rebels fighting Assad as foreign-backed terrorists and accuses international media of misrepresenting the situation as a popular uprising against the president. But it allows little access to the country for foreign correspondents.

The city of Homs was once the country's industrial centre, sitting on Syria's main north-south highway, 30 km (20 miles) east of the border with Lebanon.

It became the stronghold of the armed insurgency that began several months ago and overtook the peaceful protests against 42 years of Assad family rule.

With Sunni areas pounded into a shambles, refugees too poor to leave Homs have few options.

Most end up in the Waar district, a jungle of concrete apartment blocks that housed the Sunni elite. Waar's affluent residents fled the city's chaos. Soon refugees broke in and took over their abandoned apartments.

All down the streets, shops have been seized by refugees. At a butcher shop, a family has hung blankets across the meat hooks outside to cover the glass storefront.

Refugees have even moved into shopping malls, and the former stores are now crammed with blankets and stoves

Outside, Abu Omar looks for handouts for his six children, who have been given shelter in a local mosque.

"We're living off the charity of others. And we are lucky, some people are on the streets," he says.

Homs used to be home to around 1 million people. Now, residents casually estimate that at least half have fled.

MILITARISED ALAWITES

Meanwhile, Alawite areas like Farzat's Zahra district look more like army bases than residential neighborhoods.

Artillery is no longer stored in army barracks on Homs's outskirts but in the middle of Alawite districts, and troops are at the ready to roll them out and fire at nearby rebel areas.

The army has secured the streets connecting Alawite neighborhoods. But its control of Homs is tentuous.

Soldiers dare not go into most Sunni areas, where somewhere unseen in rocket- and bullet-riddled buildings, hundreds of rebels hide, sporadically firing rocket propelled grenades.

"If we wanted to end the Homs problem, we'd have to grind the whole place to the ground. Hundreds of soldiers would die," said an army officer.

He said he was part of the siege of Homs's Baba Amr neighborhood, when an onslaught by tanks and troops drove rebels out of their main stronghold.

"We're worried houses will be mined, like they were in Baba Amr. That struggle cost us many more men than was reported. So now instead, we just shell the rebel areas from here."

In addition to troops, hundreds of pro-Assad militia men have been cultivated in Alawite areas, proudly accepting the tag "shabbiha", from the Arabic word "ghost." They strut down the streets in army camouflage. They speak disdainfully of soldiers they view as treading too cautiously in confronting the enemy.

One shabbiha youth points to the tower overlooking an opposition area, where soldiers used to snipe at rebels.

"Now the shabbiha use it. You can't see people over there, there's no point sniping. We just take a machine gun and spray."

BACK TO SCHOOL

Despite the overt militarization, Alawite residents try to maintain a normal way of life. Most schools are open. Vendors hawk fruit and vegetables on street corners.

Nearby, women browse shops that have become a "Sunni market", where shabbiha bring in stolen furniture and clothes from Sunni areas after the army has raided them.

"These are the spoils of war," one woman shrugs. "It's our right to take them."

But the mood is always tense, and like many other days, the calm shatters along with the glass of a shopfront as an RPG launched by rebels smashes into the street. A bloodied passerby is quickly given first aid and whisked away by ambulance.

The government has pushed for the appearance of normality in the midst of chaos. Homs' Baath University reopened last week after a long closure. For the first time in months, Sunni and Alawite classmates were placed under the same roof.

But the division is as palpable here as in their fractured city. Sunni and Alawite students stick to their own sides, sitting on opposite ends of cafeterias and a campus yard overshadowed by a massive stone statue of former president Hafez al-Assad, Bashar's father who ruled for nearly 30 years.

"I used to have a lot of Alawite friends, but now we don't greet each other. There is nothing more to say," says Ahmad, a 22-year old Sunni engineering student. "But I'm not afraid, it can't get any uglier than this."

Across the yard, fellow engineering student Hassan, an Alawite, fears the worst is yet to come.

"Even my cousins are shabbiha now. I hate that. Neither side deserves power here," he sighs.

Hassan never says he thinks Assad may be toppled, but he believes the future will not be kind to Alawites.

"The slaughter is coming to us."

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: alfred russel on June 19, 2012, 06:35:42 PM
Why is Putin backing up Assad? Is this just about being an asshole to the west for domestic consumption?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on June 19, 2012, 06:37:35 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on June 19, 2012, 06:35:42 PM
Why is Putin backing up Assad? Is this just about being an asshole to the west for domestic consumption?

I'm assuming it is to keep one of Russia's arms buyers in business to buy more Russian crap.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on June 19, 2012, 06:39:17 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on June 19, 2012, 06:35:42 PM
Why is Putin backing up Assad? Is this just about being an asshole to the west for domestic consumption?

That, plus it's a historical ally & I'm sure there's money involved.  Russia tends to feed on leftovers when it comes to choosing allies.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 19, 2012, 06:51:11 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on June 19, 2012, 06:37:35 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on June 19, 2012, 06:35:42 PM
Why is Putin backing up Assad? Is this just about being an asshole to the west for domestic consumption?

I'm assuming it is to keep one of Russia's arms buyers in business to buy more Russian crap.
If Assad gets overthrown, surely the Sunni government that follows would be interested in buying more Russian crap.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on June 19, 2012, 07:05:39 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on June 19, 2012, 06:51:11 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on June 19, 2012, 06:37:35 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on June 19, 2012, 06:35:42 PM
Why is Putin backing up Assad? Is this just about being an asshole to the west for domestic consumption?

I'm assuming it is to keep one of Russia's arms buyers in business to buy more Russian crap.
If Assad gets overthrown, surely the Sunni government that follows would be interested in buying more Russian crap.
The perversity of international politics is that while that Sunni gubbermint might be buying more Russian crap they might also be trying to export the revolution to the Moslem area of Russia and Russia's client states.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Neil on June 19, 2012, 07:27:05 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on June 19, 2012, 06:35:42 PM
Why is Putin backing up Assad? Is this just about being an asshole to the west for domestic consumption?
Doesn't Russia oppose pretty much everything that the civilized world does?  Aren't they and the Chinese the enemies of all right-thinking people?  And not just their governments, but their people?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on June 19, 2012, 07:56:14 PM
This article's interesting:
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/06/19/the_coming_oil_crash?page=full
QuoteNow, a convergence of forces is weighing on petro-rulers' nerves: Europe's economic crisis; a slowdown in Chinese growth including the demand for oil; a steep decline in U.S. oil consumption with a simultaneous rise in domestic oil production; and a determined effort by petroleum colossus Saudi Arabia to build up global inventories.

It is perhaps the last data point -- Saudi Arabia's aggressive actions to lower prices by pumping some 10 million barrels a day -- that might seem baffling given Riyadh's economic stake in the oil game. But Verleger, the Colorado-based oil economist, says the Saudi rationale is clear, and linked to the kingdom's traditional long game.

In an email exchange, Verleger pointed me to an interview he did a few days ago with Kate Mackenzie at the Financial Times. First, he explains, the Saudis are out for blood when it comes to fellow petro-states Russia and Iran, the former for failing to help calm the fury in Syria, and the latter for refusing to go to heel and give up its nuclear ambitions; in both cases, the Saudis think lower prices will produce a more reasonable attitude. In addition, Saudi Arabia is terrified of a current U.S. boom in shale oil; it is hoping that lower prices will render much of the drilling in North Dakota's Bakken Shale and Canada's oil sands uneconomical. Finally, the Saudis are well aware that low oil prices helped to turn around the global economic downturn in 1998 and 1999, and they hope to help accomplish the same now, and perhaps win new affection from the world's leading economies.

Meanwhile, though, Verleger thinks that oil prices will crash. Markets overshoot when one is trying only to fine-tune them, as the Saudis are, he argues -- which is the basis for his forecasts of $40-a-barrel oil and $2-a-gallon gasoline by November.

To the degree that such fire-sale prices are long-lived, they could cause mayhem among petro-rulers. While Verleger thinks that the Saudis can maneuver prices back up when they want, the very nature of a crash demonstrates that markets can be uncontrollable. But the Saudis are willing to suffer the consequences, knowing that their own financial reserves (some $380 billion) give them staying power. "The Saudis are able to look at the long term," Phil Flynn, an analyst with Pricing Futures Group, told me.

Citigroup's Morse thinks that prices can fall further from where they are now, but not as low as Verleger forecasts because, he told me, today's market conditions are different from 2008 -- the decline in demand is not as steep, and inventories are not as large. Morse calculates that Brent can fall into the $70s-per-barrel range and U.S.-traded oil into the $60s-a-barrel range. "There is a good chance Saudi Arabia continues to produce enough to force [a rise in oil inventories]. And there's a good chance, between Europe and China, that demand growth could come to a halt," Morse said. OPEC might respond by reducing production, but its actions would be late. "Add to the scenario no more supply disruptions (or only modest ones) and no military conflict involving Iran," Morse said, "and prices could fall another $20 a barrel fairly easily."
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on June 19, 2012, 08:02:04 PM
Quote$20 a barrel

That gave me a internal combustion boner.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on June 19, 2012, 08:03:10 PM
Russia is sending a few more ships to its Syrian port, and supports Assad with weapons. All a slap at those who oppose what Assad is doing. Yet is anyone still thinking that the Russians/Putin might come around to the rest of the world's or UN's views?   :hmm:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on June 19, 2012, 08:11:04 PM
Quote from: KRonn on June 19, 2012, 08:03:10 PM
Russia is sending a few more ships to its Syrian port, and supports Assad with weapons. All a slap at those who oppose what Assad is doing. Yet is anyone still thinking that the Russians/Putin might come around to the rest of the world's or UN's views?   :hmm:
Well the UN's view is partly made by the Russians.  But even the Annan plan's collapsed.  I take your point but the key questions are is there a workable form of intervention, is it worth the risk and is it in any of our interests?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 19, 2012, 08:16:48 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on June 19, 2012, 08:02:04 PM
Quote$20 a barrel

That gave me a internal combustion boner.

Yes, the Saudis have always been the chick you can't fucking stand to be seen with, but she is a fantastic lay.

It would be interesting to see how that sort of strategy would fuck over the low production/high overhead oil producers like Nigeria and Mexico, though.  And it'll totally fuck Venezuela as well.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on June 19, 2012, 08:20:03 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 19, 2012, 08:16:48 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on June 19, 2012, 08:02:04 PM
Quote$20 a barrel

That gave me a internal combustion boner.

Yes, the Saudis have always been the chick you can't fucking stand to be seen with, but she is a fantastic lay.

It would be interesting to see how that sort of strategy would fuck over the low production/high overhead oil producers like Nigeria and Mexico, though.  And it'll totally fuck Venezuela as well.
Win, win, and loss. Mexico is already 3/4 narco state.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on June 19, 2012, 08:38:01 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 19, 2012, 08:11:04 PM
Quote from: KRonn on June 19, 2012, 08:03:10 PM
Russia is sending a few more ships to its Syrian port, and supports Assad with weapons. All a slap at those who oppose what Assad is doing. Yet is anyone still thinking that the Russians/Putin might come around to the rest of the world's or UN's views?   :hmm:
Well the UN's view is partly made by the Russians.  But even the Annan plan's collapsed.  I take your point but the key questions are is there a workable form of intervention, is it worth the risk and is it in any of our interests?
I'm not talking about nor advocating much in the way of intervention. Just pointing out how the Russians are defying us all and basically supporting Assad. Just seems that the world is waiting for the Russians, and that they're slowly coming around but contrary to that I think Putin is digging his heels in on his course of action. He now really doesn't want Assad to fall, after all the support Russia has given.

They may have a point in what will be there if Assad falls. But I have to think that Assad is so marginalized that even if he remains he's a pariah and wanted by the world court on war crimes. And there are groups in Syria getting names of individual commanders comanding troops that are committing atrocities. That's going to give a lot of force and impetus to any charges later on.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Grinning_Colossus on June 22, 2012, 03:53:43 PM
And down goes a Turkish jet

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18554246 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18554246)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on June 22, 2012, 04:51:38 PM
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on June 22, 2012, 03:53:43 PM
And down goes a Turkish jet

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18554246 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18554246)
Wonder if it was shot down over the Marco Polo Bridge.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 22, 2012, 11:11:52 PM
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on June 22, 2012, 03:53:43 PM
And down goes a Turkish jet

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18554246 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18554246)
Wow, that's just stupid!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DontSayBanana on June 22, 2012, 11:17:32 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on June 22, 2012, 11:11:52 PM
Wow, that's just stupid!

Seriously.  Even the Turks should be able to cough up something better than a Phantom.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 22, 2012, 11:23:22 PM
Quote from: DontSayBanana on June 22, 2012, 11:17:32 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on June 22, 2012, 11:11:52 PM
Wow, that's just stupid!

Seriously.  Even the Turks should be able to cough up something better than a Phantom.
They're modernized rebuilds.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on June 23, 2012, 01:40:21 AM
It's worth noting that a lot of the opposition is still peaceful, they want to avoid conflict because there's more of a moral parity in a civil war.  Even so, oh dear :bleeding:
QuoteSaudi Arabia plans to fund Syria rebel army
Exclusive: Command centre in Turkey organising weapon supply to opposition
Martin Chulov in Beirut, Ewen MacAskill in Washington, John Densky in Idlib province
guardian.co.uk, Friday 22 June 2012 18.03 BST

Saudi officials are preparing to pay the salaries of the Free Syria Army as a means of encouraging mass defections from the military and increasing pressure on the Assad regime, the Guardian has learned.

The move, which has been discussed between Riyadh and senior officials in the US and Arab world, is believed to be gaining momentum as a recent flush of weapons sent to rebel forces by Saudi Arabia and Qatar starts to make an impact on battlefields in Syria.

Officials in the Saudi capital embraced the idea when it was put to them by Arab officials in May, according to sources in three Arab states, around the same time that weapons started to flow across the southern Turkish border into the hands of Free Syria Army leaders.

Turkey has also allowed the establishment of a command centre in Istanbul which is co-ordinating supply lines in consultation with FSA leaders inside Syria. The centre is believed to be staffed by up to 22 people, most of them Syrian nationals.

The Guardian witnessed the transfer of weapons in early June near the Turkish frontier. Five men dressed in the style of Gulf Arabs arrived in a police station in the border village of Altima in Syria and finalised a transfer from the Turkish town of Reyhanli of around 50 boxes of rifles and ammunition, as well as a large shipment of medicines.

The men were treated with deference by local FSA leaders and were carrying large bundles of cash. They also received two prisoners held by rebels, who were allegedly members of the pro-regime militia, the Shabiha.

The influx of weapons has reinvigorated the insurrection in northern Syria, which less than six weeks ago was on the verge of being crushed.

The move to pay the guerrilla forces' salaries is seen as a chance to capitalise on the sense of renewed confidence, as well as provide a strong incentive for soldiers and officers to defect. The value of the Syrian pound has fallen sharply in value since the anti-regime revolt started 16 months ago, leading to a dramatic fall in purchasing power.

The plan centres on paying the FSA in either US dollars or euros, meaning their salaries would be restored to their pre-revolution levels, or possibly increased.

The US senator Joe Lieberman, who is actively supporting the Syrian opposition, discussed the issue of FSA salaries during a recent trip to Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.

His spokesman, Whitney Phillips, said: "Senator Lieberman has called for the US to provide robust and comprehensive support to the armed Syrian opposition, in co-ordination with our partners in the Middle East and Europe. He has specifically called for the US to work with our partners to provide the armed Syrian opposition with weapons, training, tactical intelligence, secure communications and other forms of support to change the military balance of power inside Syria.

"Senator Lieberman also supports the idea of ensuring that the armed opposition fighters receive regular and sufficient pay, although he does not believe it is necessary for the United States to provide this funding itself directly."

US defence secretary Leon Panetta said this week Washington was not playing a direct role in gun-running into northern Syria. "We made a decision not to provide lethal assistance at this point. I know others have made their own decisions."

Earlier this week the New York Times reported the CIA was operating in southern Turkey, helping allies decide which opposition fighters would get weapons.

Diplomatic sources have told the Guardian two US intelligence officers were in Syria's third city of Homs between December and early February, trying to establish command and control within rebel ranks.

Interviews with officials in three states reveal the influx of weapons – which includes kalashnikovs, rocket propelled grenades and anti-tank missiles – started in mid-May, when Saudi Arabia and Qatar finally moved on pledges they had made in February and March to arm rebel forces.

The officials, who insisted on anonymity, said the final agreement to move weapons from storage points inside Turkey into rebel hands was hard won, with Ankara first insisting on diplomatic cover from the Arab states and the US.

Turkey is understood to view the weapons supply lines as integral to the protection of its southern border, which is coming under increasing pressure as regime forces edge closer in an attempt to stop the gun-running and attack FSA units.

Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar were all allies of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad until several months into the uprising, which now poses a serious threat to his family's 42-year rule over the country.

All three states have become increasingly hostile as the revolt has continued, with Saudi Arabia in February describing the suggestion to arm rebel groups as an "excellent idea" and Qatar having offered exile to Assad and his family.

For the first few months of this year the three states were waiting for the US to take a proactive role in intervening in Syria, something Washington has so far not seriously considered.

With a presidential election later this year, and weighed down by the troubled legacy of Iraq, Barack Obama has shown no enthusiasm for a major foreign policy play. Polling in the US has consistently shown that voters have little appetite for intervention in Syria, while officials from Washington to London and Brussels have warned of grave risks to the region which may follow the fall of Damascus.

Assad continues to cast his regime's battle for survival as an existential threat from radical Sunni Islamists, who he says are backed by foreign states.

The Free Syria Army says its members are almost exclusively Syrian nationalists who disavow the world view of jihadists who flocked to neighbouring Iraq from 2004-07. It acknowledges that some foreign Arab fighters have travelled to Syria to join its ranks, particularly in Homs and in Douma near Damascus, but claims they do not play a decisive role.

Intelligence officials say a power vacuum would provide an attractive environment for militants who espouse a global jihad world view. "The next three to six months are crucial in Syria," one official said. "The ingredients are right for them [jihadists] to turn up and start acting decisively. That would not be a good outcome."
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 23, 2012, 09:20:54 AM
Quote from: DontSayBanana on June 22, 2012, 11:17:32 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on June 22, 2012, 11:11:52 PM
Wow, that's just stupid!

Seriously.  Even the Turks should be able to cough up something better than a Phantom.

Hey now, nobody bashes Phantoms around here, even with Turkish pilots.  :mad:

Beaded seat cover probably got in the way anyway.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 23, 2012, 09:41:16 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 23, 2012, 01:40:21 AM
Even so, oh dear :bleeding:

It's understandable that Syrians might prefer to emulate Croatia rather than Bosnia.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on June 23, 2012, 10:13:07 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 23, 2012, 09:41:16 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 23, 2012, 01:40:21 AM
Even so, oh dear :bleeding:

It's understandable that Syrians might prefer to emulate Croatia rather than Bosnia.
What? :blink:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 23, 2012, 10:36:10 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 23, 2012, 10:13:07 AM
What? :blink:

Croatia: get some German artillery, kill Serbs.

Bosnia: die photogenically to arouse international sympathy.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on June 23, 2012, 10:44:34 AM
But that's a very different situation and quite a bad comparison.  The regime's nowhere near in that much control and this isn't an ethnic or even sectarian civil war. 

My worry with Syria is that it's able to suck everyone in the region into the conflict.  That article's indicative of that.  I also think it's different to get some German artillery and to be bankrolled by the Saudis and the Gulf Arabs.  What could go wrong with that situation?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 23, 2012, 10:54:02 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 23, 2012, 10:36:10 AM
Croatia: get some German artillery, kill Serbs.

Actually, but I may be wrong but IIRC, their best stuff were arty pieces from Suid Afrika.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on June 23, 2012, 12:41:46 PM
So the Turks acknowledged that the Syrians were right to shoot down their plane?

That's kind of a good news if true, it means they don't want to invade. Yet.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 23, 2012, 12:52:23 PM
Quote from: Tamas on June 23, 2012, 12:41:46 PM
So the Turks acknowledged that the Syrians were right to shoot down their plane?

Dude, it was a Turk pilot.  He was probably trying to run up the meter taking the long way back to the airport.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 23, 2012, 03:10:26 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 23, 2012, 10:44:34 AM
this isn't an ethnic or even sectarian civil war. 

it'll be one soon enough.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on June 23, 2012, 03:13:17 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 23, 2012, 03:10:26 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 23, 2012, 10:44:34 AM
this isn't an ethnic or even sectarian civil war. 

it'll be one soon enough.

I thought it there was a huge Alawi/Sunni divide factor in this conflict?  That is most definitely sectarian.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on June 23, 2012, 03:17:16 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on June 23, 2012, 03:13:17 PM
I thought it there was a huge Alawi/Sunni divide factor in this conflict?  That is most definitely sectarian.
There's a divide.  It's not clear how much.  Both sides have an interest in minimising it.  Even so I don't think there's equivalence to the collapse of Yugoslavia because ethnicity was the dominant factor there, as Yi said 'get artillery, kill Serbs'.  I think this would need to move to a Lebanese style collapse where sectarianism is the motivation for violence to be at a similar point, right now it's still 'get artillery, kill other Syrians'.

It could happen of course.

Quoteit'll be one soon enough.
You could be right.  But that would also be true at any point in the past year.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on June 23, 2012, 03:28:31 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 23, 2012, 01:40:21 AM
It's worth noting that a lot of the opposition is still peaceful, they want to avoid conflict because there's more of a moral parity in a civil war.  Even so, oh dear :bleeding:
QuoteSaudi Arabia plans to fund Syria rebel army
Exclusive: Command centre in Turkey organising weapon supply to opposition
Martin Chulov in Beirut, Ewen MacAskill in Washington, John Densky in Idlib province
guardian.co.uk, Friday 22 June 2012 18.03 BST

Saudi officials are preparing to pay the salaries of the Free Syria Army as a means of encouraging mass defections from the military and increasing pressure on the Assad regime, the Guardian has learned.

The move, which has been discussed between Riyadh and senior officials in the US and Arab world, is believed to be gaining momentum as a recent flush of weapons sent to rebel forces by Saudi Arabia and Qatar starts to make an impact on battlefields in Syria.
.....

Intelligence officials say a power vacuum would provide an attractive environment for militants who espouse a global jihad world view. "The next three to six months are crucial in Syria," one official said. "The ingredients are right for them [jihadists] to turn up and start acting decisively. That would not be a good outcome."

It's like the early 1980s all over again; America backing Saudi financing of Sunni Islamists, I mean what could possibly go wrong ?  :hmm:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on June 23, 2012, 03:42:12 PM
I thought Saudi Arabia has been nervous over Iran and their nuclear ambitions, so it could be as simple as trying to help topple an Iranian ally in order to further isolate them.  Which is probably what we're doing, too.  :P
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 23, 2012, 03:52:15 PM
Quote from: mongers on June 23, 2012, 03:28:31 PM
It's like the early 1980s all over again; America backing Saudi financing of Sunni Islamists, I mean what could possibly go wrong ?  :hmm:

You're right.  Much better to do nothing.  :)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on June 23, 2012, 04:05:33 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 23, 2012, 03:52:15 PM
Quote from: mongers on June 23, 2012, 03:28:31 PM
It's like the early 1980s all over again; America backing Saudi financing of Sunni Islamists, I mean what could possibly go wrong ?  :hmm:

You're right.  Much better to do nothing.  :)
Basically.  Or, more impressively, try and isolate the conflict.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on June 23, 2012, 07:27:29 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 23, 2012, 12:52:23 PM
Quote from: Tamas on June 23, 2012, 12:41:46 PM
So the Turks acknowledged that the Syrians were right to shoot down their plane?

Dude, it was a Turk pilot.  He was probably trying to run up the meter taking the long way back to the airport.

Times like this I wish Languish had a "like" button.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on June 24, 2012, 08:31:32 AM
hm, looks like there will be a NATO session over this on Tuesday.

Turkesy is saying that while their plane did violate Syrian airspace briefly, it already left and was over international waters when it was shot down without warning, and the Syrians refuse to apologize.

Is this: the shooting of Franz Ferdinand?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 24, 2012, 08:40:19 AM
Quote from: Tamas on June 24, 2012, 08:31:32 AM
hm, looks like there will be a NATO session over this on Tuesday.

Turkesy is saying that while their plane did violate Syrian airspace briefly, it already left and was over international waters when it was shot down without warning, and the Syrians refuse to apologize.

Is this: the shooting of Franz Ferdinand?
How could it be? Even if the Turks invaded Syria, it's not like the Russians would launch an air war against Turkey or anything like that. Turkey is not Georgia, the Turks could probably hold their own by themselves, let alone with NATO help.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 24, 2012, 11:59:13 PM
Wow, talk about a doubling down on a losing hand.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-rescue-plane-also-attacked-by-syria.aspx?pageID=238&nID=23957&NewsCatID=338

Quote
Monday,June 25 2012, Your time is 오후 1:57:30
Turkish rescue plane also attacked by Syria

ANKARA - Hürriyet Daily News
Al-Assad forces fired on a Turkish-flagged search and rescue plane which rushed into Syrian airspace to locate the downed Turkish jet and its two missing pilots, Western diplomats reveal to Hürriyet Daily News

Syrian security forces fired on a Turkish-flagged search and rescue plane which rushed into Syrian airspace to locate the downed Turkish F4 jet and its two missing pilots June 22, the Hürriyet Daily News has learned from Western diplomatic sources.

"[In addition to] what we have seen in the media, we have been informed that Syrian forces opened fire on another Turkish plane [which had come to the region] as part of the search and rescue operation," sources told the Daily News on the condition of anonymity.

This information was shared with the ambassadors and defense attachés of the Arab League, European Union and NATO countries during a briefing at the Foreign Ministry yesterday. The Turkish search and rescue plane immediately left Syrian airspace after the shots. Local eyewitnesses reported a second plane leaving the same region over the Mediterranean Sea the afternoon of June 22, which could possibly be this Turkish search and rescue plane. Amid sound and fury over the shooting down of the Turkish jet, there was also another row between Turkey and Syria on the coordination of the search and rescue operation. The Syrian side offered to conduct a joint operation but attached certain conditions.

One of the conditions was that Syria wanted to seize the Turkish jet and take the Turkish pilots for the completion of necessary procedures as they had been in Syrian territorial waters. The Turkish side strongly rejected the idea and informed Syrian forces that Turkey would carry out its own search and rescue operations and would not leave its pilots and jet in the hands of Syria.

For this reason Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu denied that there was a joint search and rescue operation with Syria in his remarks yesterday. "This cannot be described as a joint operation. We are in coordination with the Syrians as this operation is being carried out in their territorial waters," Davutoğlu said. The search and rescue operation is expected to end tomorrow.

In the same briefing, Turkey told foreign ambassadors that Syrian air forces had violated the Turkish border five times in recent months but had not been intercepted as these had not been considered "hostile" moves. The Turkish side implemented rules of engagement in these cases but did not respond to them in the way Syria did to the Turkish jet.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on June 25, 2012, 01:00:20 AM
Assad is looking to escalate the conflict
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DontSayBanana on June 25, 2012, 01:06:06 AM
Quote from: Tamas on June 25, 2012, 01:00:20 AM
Assad is looking to escalate the conflict

Assad seems to think he's Saddam Hussein, circa 1991.  Why the hell does he seem so bent on inciting extranational intervention?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on June 25, 2012, 01:44:24 AM
Quote from: DontSayBanana on June 25, 2012, 01:06:06 AM
Quote from: Tamas on June 25, 2012, 01:00:20 AM
Assad is looking to escalate the conflict

Assad seems to think he's Saddam Hussein, circa 1991.  Why the hell does he seem so bent on inciting extranational intervention?

The Saudis are already openly arming his opposition he couldn't crush even when they weren't openly armed. He is done, lost, the question is time it will take.
Unless he ignites a regional fire, drags the Turks or whoever willing in, then probably shell Israel or something.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on June 25, 2012, 06:44:35 AM
Quote from: Tamas on June 25, 2012, 01:44:24 AM
Quote from: DontSayBanana on June 25, 2012, 01:06:06 AM
Quote from: Tamas on June 25, 2012, 01:00:20 AM
Assad is looking to escalate the conflict

Assad seems to think he's Saddam Hussein, circa 1991.  Why the hell does he seem so bent on inciting extranational intervention?

The Saudis are already openly arming his opposition he couldn't crush even when they weren't openly armed. He is done, lost, the question is time it will take.
Unless he ignites a regional fire, drags the Turks or whoever willing in, then probably shell Israel or something.
War with Turkey might get him support from the Kurds. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 25, 2012, 07:02:22 AM
Stop warfapping over Syria.  Ain't shit going to happen.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 25, 2012, 07:15:17 AM
Rats are abandoning ship

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/25/12395466-report-syrian-general-dozens-of-other-soldiers-defect-to-turkey?lite

Quote

Report: Syrian general, dozens of other soldiers defect to Turkey
By msnbc.com news services

ANKARA, Turkey -- Dozens of members of Syria's military defected to Turkey overnight with their families, a Turkish official said Monday, at a time of heightened tensions between the two countries over Syria's downing of a Turkish military plane.

The state-run Anadolu news agency said 33 soldiers crossed into Turkey overnight and the group — 224 people in all — included a general and two colonels.

A government official, however, said the group included three colonels and there was no general among them. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with government rules, did not know the overall number of defectors and the two accounts could not immediately be reconciled.

The defections come three days after Syria shot down a Turkish aircraft it said had violated its airspace, further fraying relations between the two countries that were once allies.

Turkey has summoned a NATO meeting for Tuesday to agree a response to the downing of its military reconnaissance jet in what it says was an attack without warning. NATO's founding treaty allows an ally to request consultations whenever it feels its security is threatened.

Turkey said the plane had unintentionally strayed into Syria's airspace, but was inside international airspace when it was brought down. It has insisted the jet was on a training flight to test Turkey's radar capabilities and was not spying on Syria.

Turkey seeks NATO action over Syria military jet downing

Turkey's cabinet was due to meet on Monday to discuss Friday's attack, which lent a more menacing international dimension to the 16-month-old uprising against President Bashar Assad. Britain said it could press for more serious action at the United Nations Security Council.

Defectors affiliated with the Free Syrian Army and based in Turkey are known to collect food and other supplies to deliver to comrades on smuggling routes.

The government official said another group of some 60 army defectors had also crossed into Turkey recently. 
...
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on June 25, 2012, 07:44:09 AM
Clearly.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on June 25, 2012, 09:27:40 AM
Meanwhile, Russia gives an other try to their Syrian arms shipment, reinsuring it under a Russian flag.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on June 25, 2012, 10:29:02 PM
Looks like Turkey might invoke Article 5...and NATO will probably ignore it.  :sleep:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jPElkCt0Wqa93FHd0ztpv1TukPGw?docId=555a88e64d474dd58a10d9ce29ed3a38

Might be a good excuse for them to ditch NATO and start reestablishing the Ottoman Empire.  :P
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Neil on June 25, 2012, 10:44:15 PM
Article 5 doesn't apply.  The plane was downed in Asia.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on June 25, 2012, 11:02:04 PM
Quote from: Neil on June 25, 2012, 10:44:15 PM
Article 5 doesn't apply.  The plane was downed in Asia.

Nice try, but Article 6(1) clarifies 5 to include the relevant area of contention.  :contract:

QuoteArticle 6 (1)

For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:

- on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France (2), on the territory of or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;

- on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Neil on June 25, 2012, 11:37:29 PM
Shit.  The Med fucks everything up.

Oh well.  They still have leeway in terms of their response.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on June 26, 2012, 04:15:38 AM

Quote
BEIRUT (Reuters) - State forces and rebels were locked in heavy fighting in several areas outside Damascus on Tuesday, activists said, in the worst violence to hit the suburbs of the Syrian capital since the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad began 16 months ago.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported heavy fighting near the Republican Guard headquarters in Qudsiya, and in the suburbs of al-Hama and Mashrou' Dumar, just 9 km (6 miles) outside Damascus.

Samir al-Shami, an activist in Damascus, said tanks and armoured vehicles were also out on the streets of the suburbs and some activists reported that one tank had been blown up.

The British-based Observatory, which has a network of activists across Syria, said security forces and armoured vehicles stormed the neighborhood of Barzeh, an opposition toehold inside Damascus, and there were sounds of heavy gunfire.

The revolt against Assad's rule has become increasingly violent in response to an army crackdown. Fighting is now reported regularly in Damascus, once considered a bastion of Assad support.



(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fl1.yimg.com%2Fbt%2Fapi%2Fres%2F1.2%2FbgZbhqyy.VJwMOWN1DhsgQ--%2FYXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9aW5zZXQ7aD0zNzE7cT04NTt3PTYzMA--%2Fhttp%3A%2F%2Fmedia.zenfs.com%2Fen_us%2FNews%2Fap_webfeeds%2Fe877f6d382c84311130f6a7067002526.jpg&hash=66049c8ca24c66fd4e1bb7919b68cd3ee9bd232d)

This citizen journalism image provided by Shaam News Network SNN and taken on Thursday, June 21, 2012, purports to show a general view of a damaged street in the Khaldiyeh neighborhood of Homs province, central Syria. (AP Photo/Shaam News Network, SNN)





Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on June 26, 2012, 04:38:06 AM
Apparently the Syrians have opened fire on another Turkish plane :mellow:

I thought the NATO meeting was under Article 4 and was largely to, publicly, remind the Syrians that Turkey's part of NATO.  It didn't seem to work.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on June 26, 2012, 04:39:56 AM
Erdogan said that they had 5 incursions from Syrian helicopters recently which they didn't react to, but from now on will consider any approach of their border by syrian forces as a threat
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on June 26, 2012, 04:57:58 AM
Quote from: Tamas on June 26, 2012, 04:39:56 AM
Erdogan said that they had 5 incursions from Syrian helicopters recently which they didn't react to, but from now on will consider any approach of their border by syrian forces as a threat
Rasmussen, international politics most elegant man, was asked about the downing of Turkish planes and said 'it won't happen again'.  Also said he doesn't expect any more escalation along the border.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on June 26, 2012, 05:55:20 AM
Why is Syria trying to bait Turkey?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 26, 2012, 05:59:44 AM
Quote from: DGuller on June 26, 2012, 05:55:20 AM
Why is Syria trying to bait Turkey?

It's utterly incomprehensible to me.

What would make more sense is if Turkey were trying to manufacter an international incident.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on June 26, 2012, 06:03:55 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 26, 2012, 05:59:44 AM
Quote from: DGuller on June 26, 2012, 05:55:20 AM
Why is Syria trying to bait Turkey?

It's utterly incomprehensible to me.

What would make more sense is if Turkey were trying to manufacter an international incident.  :ph34r:
:hmm:  Are there any radio stations on the Turkish border?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 26, 2012, 06:09:46 AM
Asad is doomed.

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/26/12414144-turkey-to-help-liberate-the-syrians-from-dictatorship?lite

QuoteTurkey to help 'liberate the Syrians from dictatorship'
By Ian Johnston, msnbc.com

Turkey's prime minister said Tuesday that his country would offer all possible support "to liberate the Syrians from dictatorship," as NATO condemned Syria for shooting down a Turkey military jet.

Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey – a member of NATO – had changed the rule of engagement for its military and would now respond to any violation of the Syrian border.

Turkey would not engage in war-mongering, but the attack on the reconnaissance jet, which was deliberately targeted, would not be left unanswered, Erdogan said in a speech to his ruling AK Party deputies in parliament.

"However valuable Turkey's friendship is, its wrath is just as strong. Don't take our common sense and cautious approach as a sign of passivity," Erdogan said, according to Turkish newspaper Zaman.

"The Syrian administration is tyrannical and not just. Turkey will be in solidarity with our brothers in Syria until a new regime is in place," he added. "Turkey will be in solidarity with our brothers in Syria until a new regime arrives."

"We will offer all the possible support to liberate the Syrians from dictatorship," Erdogan said.

Turkish border a crucial link in Syrian conflict

Meanwhile, ambassadors of NATO's 28 member states met in Brussels on Tuesday to consult with Turkey on the incident after it called for the meeting.

Turkey seeks NATO action over Syria jet downing

"NATO allies have expressed strong condemnation of this completely unacceptable act," NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said after the gathering.

Report: Syrian general, dozens of other soldiers defect to Turkey

Rasmussen said NATO security was "indivisible", but he said NATO's Article 5 -- which calls for member states to see an attack on one country as an attack on all the alliance's members -- had not been discussed.

"We stand together with Turkey in spirit of solidarity," he said.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on June 26, 2012, 06:12:25 AM
Quote from: DGuller on June 26, 2012, 05:55:20 AM
Why is Syria trying to bait Turkey?
Disintegrating patrimonial regimes aren't always that coherent far less understandable.  It does seem bizarre.  But I think there's maybe a few possible motivations. 
They're worried about scrambling the jets, which would be a normal response, given the defection to Jordan.
They want to demonstrate they can shoot planes down.  I've read that the relatively modern, Russian, air security in Syria would be a worry for intervention.  They may want to show it's working and ready.
They're scared.  They may well be expecting intervention at any point.

But I agree it's very difficult to understand what's going on and what the Syrians want to achieve.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on June 26, 2012, 06:13:15 AM
He may hope to rally Syrians against a Turkish invasion.  Get Western forces involved from US and Europe to rally pan-Arabists and Islamists?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on June 26, 2012, 06:14:20 AM
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on June 26, 2012, 06:13:15 AM
He may hope to rally Syrians against a Turkish invasion.  Get Western forces involved from US and Europe to rally pan-Arabists and Islamists?
Except the Turkish government's hugely popular in the Arab world and Islamist.  While Assad's a secularist tyrant, with few Arab friends, hailing from a heterodox sect.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 26, 2012, 06:34:19 AM
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on June 26, 2012, 06:13:15 AM
He may hope to rally Syrians against a Turkish invasion.  Get Western forces involved from US and Europe to rally pan-Arabists and Islamists?

There aren't any pan Arabists left outside the Syrian Baath party.

Tough for a wacko Islamic splinter sect with a history of blowing up Islamists to rally support against a moderate Islamist state.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on June 26, 2012, 06:55:05 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 26, 2012, 06:14:20 AM
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on June 26, 2012, 06:13:15 AM
He may hope to rally Syrians against a Turkish invasion.  Get Western forces involved from US and Europe to rally pan-Arabists and Islamists?
Except the Turkish government's hugely popular in the Arab world and Islamist.  While Assad's a secularist tyrant, with few Arab friends, hailing from a heterodox sect.
I am aware.  However, at this point it may be the only card he feels he has left to play, short of gassing rebel territory.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 28, 2012, 12:31:50 AM
Turks have moved some forces closer to the border

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/9360708/Turkey-increases-its-military-presence-at-Syrian-border.html
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on June 28, 2012, 03:21:10 AM
Turkish official confirms troop movements toward Syrian border. For "precaution". Right, because a Syrian invasion is a real danger at present.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on June 28, 2012, 04:50:13 AM
Quote from: Tamas on June 28, 2012, 03:21:10 AM
Turkish official confirms troop movements toward Syrian border. For "precaution". Right, because a Syrian invasion is a real danger at present.
They've said they'll treat any Syrian forces 'approaching' the border as hostile.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on June 28, 2012, 08:30:37 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on June 28, 2012, 12:31:50 AM
Turks have moved some forces closer to the border

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/9360708/Turkey-increases-its-military-presence-at-Syrian-border.html
I hope it's Israeli border.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on June 28, 2012, 08:39:37 AM
Turkish FM sez their soldiers mistook the plane for an Israeli one.

what is that supposed to be? Is it okay to just shoot at jewish planes?

Oh, right, on that part of the world, it is much better then shooting at muslim planes.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 28, 2012, 08:41:22 AM
Quote from: Tamas on June 28, 2012, 08:39:37 AM
Turkish FM sez their soldiers mistook the plane for an Israeli one.

what is that supposed to be? Is it okay to just shoot at jewish planes?

Oh, right, on that part of the world, it is much better then shooting at muslim planes.

:lol: Whelp...
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Grey Fox on June 28, 2012, 08:44:58 AM
Is Turkey's answer going to be : "Oh, alright. Shit happens. 1 for 1?"
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on June 28, 2012, 09:03:53 AM
I wonder how that goes around there.

"Dude, I just opened the door and you almost shot me. I am your cousin, WTF?!"
"But Abdul, I thought you were a jew"
"ah, alright then. Whats for dinner?"
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 28, 2012, 11:00:42 PM
Quote from: DGuller on June 28, 2012, 08:30:37 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on June 28, 2012, 12:31:50 AM
Turks have moved some forces closer to the border

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/9360708/Turkey-increases-its-military-presence-at-Syrian-border.html
I hope it's Israeli border.  :ph34r:
Did Turkey gain a border with Israel when I wasn't looking? :huh:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on June 28, 2012, 11:06:43 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 25, 2012, 07:02:22 AM
Stop warfapping over Syria.  Ain't shit going to happen.

Would be fun though.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on June 28, 2012, 11:14:38 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on June 28, 2012, 11:00:42 PM
Quote from: DGuller on June 28, 2012, 08:30:37 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on June 28, 2012, 12:31:50 AM
Turks have moved some forces closer to the border

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/9360708/Turkey-increases-its-military-presence-at-Syrian-border.html
I hope it's Israeli border.  :ph34r:
Did Turkey gain a border with Israel when I wasn't looking? :huh:

Woosh.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on June 28, 2012, 11:16:22 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 26, 2012, 06:12:25 AM
Quote from: DGuller on June 26, 2012, 05:55:20 AM
Why is Syria trying to bait Turkey?
Disintegrating patrimonial regimes aren't always that coherent far less understandable.  It does seem bizarre.  But I think there's maybe a few possible motivations. 
They're worried about scrambling the jets, which would be a normal response, given the defection to Jordan.
They want to demonstrate they can shoot planes down.  I've read that the relatively modern, Russian, air security in Syria would be a worry for intervention.  They may want to show it's working and ready.
They're scared.  They may well be expecting intervention at any point.

But I agree it's very difficult to understand what's going on and what the Syrians want to achieve.

The motivations could be entirely opaque to us because they are combating schemes that exist entirely in their minds.  Folks in the Middle East aren't good at reality checking.  Remember how Saddam said he didn't think the US would really invade in 2003 because the CIA was so good that it already knew that he had no active weapons programs.  Or how Hamas mentions the Rotary Club as some of it's enemies in it's charter.  Or that Egyptians were blaming shark attacks on the Mossad and Iraqis thought that the UK had released giant man eating badgers to hunt down insurgents.  They may fire on Turkish jets because they think they are actually holograms and the may fire at refugees over the Turkish border in order to stop the Mole people from turning the Euphrates in to whiskey.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on June 30, 2012, 02:28:39 PM
 :lol:

The Security Council decided, that the Syrian crisis shall be solved by the Assad regime and it's opposition forming a national unity government. Russia and China also agreed on this.

Now the only small taks which remains is convincing the Syrians on the whole idea.

:lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on June 30, 2012, 02:48:39 PM
What's Vogue's position?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on June 30, 2012, 05:42:45 PM
Quote from: Tamas on June 30, 2012, 02:28:39 PM
:lol:

The Security Council decided, that the Syrian crisis shall be solved by the Assad regime and it's opposition forming a national unity government. Russia and China also agreed on this.

Now the only small taks which remains is convincing the Syrians on the whole idea.

:lol:
It can happen. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on July 03, 2012, 11:14:23 PM
Disgusting :bleeding:

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/03/world/meast/syria-torture-report/

QuoteReport describes brutal torture in Syria
By Ivan Watson, CNN
July 3, 2012 -- Updated 1513 GMT (2313 HKT)

Istanbul (CNN) -- "Basat al reeh." "Dulab." "Falaqa." They are Arabic names for torture techniques that send chills through the hearts of Syrians, particularly the untold thousands who are believed to have been detained during the uprising of the last 15 months.

"We suffered torture all the time," said Tariq, an opposition activist from the port city of Latakia who spent 40 days in solitary confinement in spring 2011.

He told CNN he endured "dulab," in which torturers force the prisoner's legs and head into a car tire before beating them, and "basat al reeh," in which the prisoner is tied to a board and beaten.

"They threw cold water on our naked bodies and they also urinated on us ... they are really good at what they do," said Tariq, who now is in Turkey helping mobilize men and weapons to rebels inside Syria.

According to a report published Tuesday by the New York-based human rights organization Human Rights Watch, the Syrian government has been carrying out "a state policy of torture" as part of an effort to crush dissent throughout the unrest.

Human Rights Watch identified 27 detention centers across Syria where torture was systematically inflicted on prisoners, according to testimonies from more than 200 former prisoners and security officers who defected.

Rights group cites 'state policy of torture' in Syria as stream of defectors reported

"It is a network of torture chambers that the authorities are using to intimidate and punish people who dare to oppose the government," said Ole Solvang, a Human Rights Watch researcher.

"Nobody knows how many people are being detained, how many are being tortured," he added. "But one local activist group has collected names of 25,000 people in detention. The numbers are absolutely staggering."

Human Rights Watch titled its report "The Torture Archipelago" in an overt attempt to link the Syrian prison system to the notorious Siberian gulags described in Alexander Solzhenitsyn's Soviet dissident novel "The Gulag Archipelago."

The system is being run by at least four intelligence agencies collectively referred to as mukhabarat, or secret police, the report says. Those agencies include the Department of Military Intelligence, the Political Security Directorate, the General Intelligence Directorate and the Air Force Intelligence Directorate.

"The authorities also established numerous temporary unofficial holding centers in places such as stadiums, military bases, schools and hospitals where the authorities rounded up and held people during massive detention campaigns before transporting them to branches of the intelligence agencies," Human Rights Watch reported.

The Syrian government routinely denies allegations of such abuses. Recently, Syria's ambassador to the United Nations walked out of a meeting of the U.N. Human Rights Council in protest after the Syrian regime was accused of committing crimes against humanity.

But the eyewitness accounts gathered by Human Rights Watch as well as by CNN throughout the 15-month crisis are overwhelming.

Though most of the torture victims in Human Rights Watch's report were men ranging from 18 to 35 years of age, the organization also interviewed women, senior citizens and children who said they were tortured.

"They electrocuted me on my stomach, with a prod. I fell unconscious," said Hossam, a 13-year-old boy who told Human Rights Watch he was detained in the town of Tal Kalakh in May 2011. "When they interrogated me the second time, they beat me and electrocuted me again.

Clinton: World may not succeed in Syria

"The third time, they had some pliers and they pulled out my toenail. They said, 'Remember this saying, always keep it in mind: We take both kids and adults, and we killed them both.' I started to cry, and they returned me to the cell."

CNN has also interviewed more than a dozen Syrians who described enduring beatings, electrocution and horribly crowded conditions in prison cells.

A dentist who was arrested for secretly providing medical care to wounded demonstrators told CNN in February that he endured beatings, near-drownings in buckets of toilet water and electric shocks to his genitals during 45 days in a prison cell that was built for 60 people but held 130 prisoners.

"They started beating me and asked me, 'Who did you help?' " the dentist recounted. "I said, 'I helped an old lady.' Then they started beating me even harder."

The accounts of brutality match those shared by a former mukhabarat officer who said he was repeatedly ordered to torture prisoners until he defected and fled to Turkey with his family last year.

"Whatever we wanted the prisoner to say, he would say. Not what he wanted to say, whatever we ordered him to say," said the former officer, who spoke to CNN outside a refugee camp in Turkey where he had been living for months.

"We took their fingernails out with pliers and we made them eat them. We made them suck their own blood of the floor," the officer added.

Photos: In Syrian hospital, no escape from war

The officer's descriptions of the detention facility where he worked in Damascus matched the descriptions of a former prisoner who had spent months incarcerated in the same building. That former prisoner's finger was still mangled after it was crushed during a torture session in the Damascus facility.

The officer said prison guards used grim humor during their interrogation sessions.

"We would bring the prisoner and put him in the 'basat al reeh' or the 'dulab' and start beating him," he said. "He would scream 'for God's sake,' and we would say OK, bring the 'for God's sake' stick. He would scream 'for my mother, please" or 'for [the prophet] Mohammed.' And we would bring the 'my mother' stick and the 'for Mohammed' stick. Every stick had a name."

"At the core, the crisis in Syria is about human rights violations," said Solvang, who has traveled into Syria to gather evidence and testimony for "Torture Archipelago." "That is what is driving the crisis and driving people to take up arms."

The Human Rights Watch report includes satellite maps showing the exact location of detention centers. It also lists the names of commanders of individual detention centers.

Human Rights Watch is urging the U.N. Security Council to refer Syrian officials to the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity.

"Those who commit these abuses do so with complete impunity, thinking they will never have to answer for this," Solvang said. "By publishing these names, we are really putting them on notice, saying they will have to answer for these violations."

Syrian military defector: 'Those who were injected are lucky'
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Neil on July 04, 2012, 12:10:43 AM
No big deal.  No worse than panties on head.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on July 04, 2012, 09:14:46 AM
Could your shtick be more irrelevant if you tried?

Moving on...the death could could be well over 25,000 with 100 dying every day! :o

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/04/12557631-catastrophe-journalist-behind-the-lines-in-syria-sees-no-end-to-war?lite

QuoteBy msnbc.com

As International Editor at NBC News' British partner ITV News, Bill Neely has covered the Libyan and Egyptian revolutions, the 2008 terrorist attack in Mumbai, as well as the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. He is on his fourth trip in seven months to Syria, a country largely off-limits to Western journalists, where he and his team are covering the war. He spoke to msnbc.com's F. Brinley Bruton from Syria where he was witnesssing what he called "the battle for Damascus."

Q: Are you surprised by the level of violence you've seen on this trip?

A: Every day there are surprising things to be seen. On my last trip I was genuinely surprised by the level of destruction in the Baba Amr district of Homs where Marie Colvin (an American correspondent for Britain's Sunday Times) was killed. I think this time it has been really surprising to see three, four miles from the center of Damascus such sustained bombardment. Nobody in Damascus can be unaware of what's happening.

I was surprised to see (the Free Syrian Army) operate quite openly. I mean, on Monday they drove us around for a long time through suburbs of Damascus. There wasn't a sign in sight of any army presence and they weren't hiding themselves, they were driving around with the guns out the window.

A few days ago (I was surprised by) the level of artillery and mortar fire going into Douma. It still has the capacity to shock you that an army will use that level of force to subdue a rebellion.

Q: How do you compare this to other conflicts you have covered in the past?

Follow @msnbc_world

A: My immediate point of comparison would be [Libyan leader Moammar] Gadhafi [shelling] of the town of Zawiya which was 30 miles from Tripoli. Again there was a staggering level of force used in the bombardment.

In Kosovo it was very clear that it was ethnic cleansing, that Orthodox Christian Serbs were ethnically cleansing Muslims, as they had done in Bosnia. It is different here. The suburbs I was in yesterday are Sunni and the regime is not Sunni, it's Alawite, a branch of Shiite Islam, so there is a sectarian element to it. I think the Kosovo thing was even more, well, brutal.

Q: Have we reached a tipping point in the conflict?

A: My view was was that this was a civil war several months ago, and I think if there were any doubt [Syrian President Bashar] Assad answered that question a few days ago when he said this is a war on all fronts.

We don't like to call it a war in the West because we don't have a damn clue what to do about it. At the minute it seems to me it is in the interest of the great powers to almost play this down.

One interesting aspect of this is that the U.N. has now stopped giving casualty figures, it has kind of been stuck for quite a long time at around 10,000. Well, it is way way over that.

Activists appear to have some grounding in fact and are coming up with about 18,600 civilians and rebels killed. The deputy foreign minister told me in May that there were more than 6,000 pro-regime dead. That takes you straight away to 25,000. Hillary Clinton said a few days ago it was 700 in the past week. I just looked at the activists figures and it looks about 100 a day now.

This is now the longest of the Arab revolutions by a long way, it is bigger than Libya, Egypt and Tunisia put together.

And the U.N. keeps warning that if we're not careful this will become a catastrophe. I think if it's 100 a day -- you are talking war, you are talking catastrophe.

And you can talk about talks between the opposition and Assad and a transitional government by mutual consent, and frankly it sounds to the people here on both sides like so much "blah blah blah." In fact, it probably sounds like "blab blah blah" to the citizens of the U.S. and Britain and France as well. But it is it is a [Band-Aid] by embarrassed governments while in reality on the ground there are two sides who are gunning for each other quite literally.

Q: What can the West do?

A: I just came from the U.N. in Damascus and there are dozens of white U.N. Land Rovers lined up there. They are all dressed up with nowhere to go.

It does give a very bad impression of a world that is completely impotent, and secondly of a world that isn't even trying because the U.N. are just sitting in their hotel doing nothing.

Q: What did you think of the recent Human Rights Watch report on widespread torture in Syria, were you surprised?

A: There was a large element of "duh!" when that report came out. You just thought, "Well, what do you expect, this has been a brutal regime for a very long time."

Yes, it's terrible but I don't think it told us anything new. Obviously, Human Rights Watch are trying to get the U.N. to refer Syria to the [International Criminal Court], they're building the evidence up block by block.

Q: Is the risk that Syria could implode?

A: The distinction is that Libya imploded, and the problem with Syria is that it could explode. Someone once said the Middle East is like a series of detonators all strung together. When Syria goes off Lebanon will, Iraq might, Iran, Syria's closest, friend might. And Israel may get tempted.

Q: So you don't see much sign of the Assad government losing?

A: Not much sign of them stopping the bombardment of Homs and Douma because, if that's what they feel they have to do to crush the revolution than that's what they'll do. They've made that absolutely clear. You read the official Syrian news agency and the word "crush" appears many many times.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on July 04, 2012, 09:16:48 AM
Journalists interviewing journalists. :bleeding:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Neil on July 04, 2012, 09:29:17 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on July 04, 2012, 09:14:46 AM
Could your shtick be more irrelevant if you tried?
Just for that, CdM's allowed to rape you.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on July 04, 2012, 09:30:13 AM
 :lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on July 04, 2012, 09:31:41 AM
Quote from: Neil on July 04, 2012, 09:29:17 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on July 04, 2012, 09:14:46 AM
Could your shtick be more irrelevant if you tried?
Just for that, CdM's allowed to rape you.
And it'll be funnier than you've been in the last five years combined.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on July 04, 2012, 09:33:16 AM
Tim woke up feeling very tough today :P
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on July 04, 2012, 09:36:07 AM
Quote from: Tamas on July 04, 2012, 09:33:16 AM
Tim woke up feeling very tough today :P
It's 11:35pm
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on July 05, 2012, 11:39:04 AM
I saw on the news that more Syrian officers, at least one General and a number of soldiers defected to Turkey. Still probably not big numbers but there's more going on which is negative for Assad's government, or so it seems.

Rebels are actively patrolling and controlling areas in Damascus or suburbs; a TV news report was showing them. Syria has reportedly lost a couple thousand troops so far. Looks like Russia is getting more and more pressure as this all drags on and Assad appears to be no closer to ending the revolt, and may be losing more ground. 
 
I had thought Assad was gaining control and was surprised to see these latest things that seem to show his position worsening. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on July 05, 2012, 12:13:38 PM
Once a dictator loses the air of inevitability of his rule, things can go downhill very quickly.  That's why dictators with absolute power are scared shitless of appearing weak.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on July 05, 2012, 12:20:00 PM
He should have either liberalized things a bit or snuck out of the country while he had the chance.  Short of Russia taking him in the only way this will end now is with him against a bullet ridden wall.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on July 05, 2012, 12:26:33 PM
There is no way out for dictators such Assad.  If you start liberalizing things, you show weakness and you're gone.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on July 05, 2012, 12:27:34 PM
Quote from: The Brain on July 04, 2012, 09:16:48 AM
Journalists interviewing journalists. :bleeding:

:)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on July 05, 2012, 01:18:16 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 05, 2012, 12:26:33 PM
There is no way out for dictators such Assad.  If you start liberalizing things, you show weakness and you're gone.
In the long term.  But in some cases it can lead to a gradual decline in power, and retirement to France or something, rather than a bloody mess.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 05, 2012, 01:25:07 PM
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on July 05, 2012, 01:18:16 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 05, 2012, 12:26:33 PM
There is no way out for dictators such Assad.  If you start liberalizing things, you show weakness and you're gone.
In the long term.  But in some cases it can lead to a gradual decline in power, and retirement to France or something, rather than a bloody mess.

They never see that, though.  So many, many dictators have been given the opportunity, or had the means to take the opportunity, to haul ass with the family and suitcases full of cash to another country, but yet they rarely ever do.  They become imbued with their own sense of invincibility through so many years of absolute power and an almost Hitler-like bunker mentality of delusion to the very last, much to their eventual demise.

Assad will most likely die like Gaddafi, or captured, imprisoned and tried like Saddam Hussein or Mubarak.   It's just they way they're built.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on July 05, 2012, 01:28:28 PM
Sadly, correct. Only variation is the amount of people who have to die in the mean time.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 05, 2012, 02:07:31 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 05, 2012, 12:26:33 PM
There is no way out for dictators such Assad.  If you start liberalizing things, you show weakness and you're gone.

Depends if by gone you mean out of power or dead.  Plenty of dictators have handed off power and retired in peace.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on July 05, 2012, 10:34:55 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on July 05, 2012, 01:25:07 PM
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on July 05, 2012, 01:18:16 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 05, 2012, 12:26:33 PM
There is no way out for dictators such Assad.  If you start liberalizing things, you show weakness and you're gone.
In the long term.  But in some cases it can lead to a gradual decline in power, and retirement to France or something, rather than a bloody mess.

They never see that, though.  So many, many dictators have been given the opportunity, or had the means to take the opportunity, to haul ass with the family and suitcases full of cash to another country, but yet they rarely ever do.  They become imbued with their own sense of invincibility through so many years of absolute power and an almost Hitler-like bunker mentality of delusion to the very last, much to their eventual demise.

Assad will most likely die like Gaddafi, or captured, imprisoned and tried like Saddam Hussein or Mubarak.   It's just they way they're built.

Most importantly...will his wife get out and become the tragic widow, eventually marrying some billionaire...or will the rebels have their way with her. :(
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 05, 2012, 10:49:58 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on July 05, 2012, 10:34:55 PM
Most importantly...will his wife get out and become the tragic widow, eventually marrying some billionaire...or will the rebels have their way with her. :(

OK, so I came.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on July 06, 2012, 02:17:34 AM
The Turkish pilots have been found on the bottom of the sea :(
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on July 06, 2012, 08:09:38 AM
A General of a Republican Guard brigade and one of Assad's personal friends has fled the country.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/48087057/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/#.T_bjSPXpV-g
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on July 06, 2012, 08:12:21 AM
Quote from: Tamas on July 06, 2012, 02:17:34 AM
The Turkish pilots have been found on the bottom of the sea :(

:(

I guess the Syrian government and Syrian military didn't feel they were busy enough so decided to poke at Turkey.   :huh:

I doubt it will happen, but if Syria goes too far and provokes Turkey into calling on NATO's Article five, where all member nations come to their aid, that should keep the Syrian government busy enough.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on July 06, 2012, 08:16:10 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on July 06, 2012, 08:09:38 AM
A General of a Republican Guard brigade and one of Asad's personal friends has fled the country.


I still have to say that if Assad does go, I can't be too enthused about who or what factions may fill the void,  and come to power. Jury is still out on Libya and Egypt, as the more radical elements often have the organisation to fill such voids. I have no idea of what the political landscape looks like in Syria but there certainly can't be any democratic type organisations very active there now.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on July 09, 2012, 08:10:06 PM
Fantastic video showcasing the rebels and their Mad Max style.

http://video.msnbc.msn.com/nightly-news/48127315/#48127315
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on July 09, 2012, 09:02:53 PM
The interesting things I got out of that video is that the rebels have gained a lot of momentum and are controlling areas that the army no longer can easily take back. Most significantly, the reporter who was there strongly feels that if the rebels had more weapons and ammo then the Assad regime would be finished. It's that bad for the Assad regime. I've heard that some Arab nations and  maybe Turkey are supplying some arms to the rebels. I also read today something about Russia ending arms shipments to Syria, but I only saw that headline, so don't know how comprehensive it is.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on July 09, 2012, 09:58:24 PM
Any truth to the Rumors that the Mahdi army is sending people over?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on July 12, 2012, 03:20:58 PM
Quote
Psychologically battered, Syrian soldiers abandon Assad


ANTAKYA, Turkey (Reuters) - As one of the Sunni Muslim soldiers who form the bulk of the Syrian army, Lieutenant Adnan Suleibi kept being pushed to the front of units fighting in the rebellious city of Homs.

Alawite personnel - members of the same minority sect as President Bashar al-Assad - remained in the rear. Alawites control the military through their domination of the officer corps and, crucially, direct the Soviet-style intelligence and secret police apparatus entrusted with preventing dissent.

"The Sunnis are cannon fodder and morale has been sapped. There are 75 men left in my brigade out of 250. The rest were killed, injured or deserted," said Suleibi, a slim 23-year-old in jeans and striped t-shirt.

"As soon as the chance came, I made a run for it," he said after crossing to the safety of Turkey last week with a comrade.

They are among a new wave of Sunni defectors who have abandoned the military in recent weeks as the army, short of gung-ho infantry, relies more on heavy artillery to batter Sunni towns.

The opposition says at least 17,000 people have been killed in a 16-month uprising against Assad, who says he is defending his country against foreign-backed terrorists.

Assad loyalists in the military use classic Soviet techniques to keep the men in the front line from running away, including the threat of death.

"In Homs I was afraid more of the military intelligence behind me that of the rebels in front," Suleibi said.

"The military has become a murder and theft machine. The priority of the officers is for us to bring them big-screen televisions from the homes we enter," he said. "I would have defected earlier if not for concern for my parents' safety."

Suleibi, who is from the coastal province of Latakia, served inland in Homs, part of a long-standing Syrian army policy of never using troops in their home regions.

After coordinating through Facebook using coded language with comrades who had defected, he flitted through the olive groves and vineyards of northern Idlib province and made a dash across barren land to Turkey.

"THE HATRED OF OTHERS"

Syrian military aircraft drop fliers near the border carrying barely veiled threats to defectors on the last stage of their escape, telling them that loved ones left behind will suffer.

"This is your last chance for you to save yourself. You are helpless in front of the Syrian Arab Army," says one. "Go back to your folks and to the people you love, and do not become fuel for the hatred of others."

Thousands of soldiers have been killed or imprisoned because they tried to flee and failed, or were suspected of planning to do so. Around 2,500 officers and lesser ranks are imprisoned in the notorious Seidnaya jail north of Damascus, which has been emptied of political prisoners to make way for military personnel, according to opposition sources.

A Syrian army pullback in the last two weeks from areas in rural Idlib and Aleppo bordering Turkey's Hatay province, following Turkish army reinforcement on part of the frontier, has given rebels more room to operate.

The frontier terrain is a mixture of rolling hills and flat farmland planted with olive trees, vineyards, wheat and vegetables. The Orontes River, which turns in several parts into a muddy stream in the summer, separates the two countries at Hacipasa.

Hundreds of refugees are crossing to Turkey daily to join more than 30,000 already there. They include military personnel who surrender to Turkish authorities and then are sent to special camps, or who go directly to join activists or relatives.

Opposition campaigners say it is difficult to know exactly how many soldiers have defected or the total number of rebels fighting back against Assad's crackdown. They estimate that tens of thousands out of the 300,000-member army have deserted.

Syria's military fell under Alawite sway in the early 1960s, when Alawite officers took control of the best armed divisions and of intelligence units. That ushered in five decades of domination, strengthened by Assad's late father Hafez al-Assad, who co-opted key Sunni merchants and tribes to cement his power.

With the officer corps overwhelmingly Alawite, most of the deserters have been Sunnis of lower rank, although lately religious minority soldiers, particularly Druze, have also been trickling out, Free Syrian Army sources say.

SHOOT OR BE SHOT

Abu Suhaib, a non-commissioned officer in the Syrian navy at Latakia, defected at the beginning of this year after being imprisoned for six months in Seidnaya.

"I was lucky. Arab observers visited Seidnaya and the authorities decided to release nine of us. We were told to go back to our units. Eight of us defected," said Abu Suhaib, who goes by his nom de guerre and is now leading a platoon fighting Assad's forces in the province of Idlib.

"I was beaten and tortured and hauled in front of a field court where I was not allowed even a defense. I had to sign everything they wanted, including admitting a charge that I had planned an attack on Qerdaha," he said, referring to Assad's hometown in the mountains overlooking the Mediterranean.

The battle-hardened 28-year old, who had moved his wife and baby boy to Turkey, said he became pro-revolution after he witnessed the killing of unarmed protesters, whom his Alawite officers later described as "terrorists" who deserved to die.

One Friday in April last year, he went down to Sheikh Daher Square in Latakia, where about 200 demonstrators had broken through barriers set up by pro-Assad militiamen and tried to bring down a statue of Hafez al-Assad.

"Military Intelligence snipers shot dead nine demonstrators, including two boys. I decided then that I could be useful to the revolt by staying on the inside," he said.

Others wanted to flee early but could not.

Abdelilah Farzat, a Lieutenant Colonel now defending the rebel town of Rastan in the central Homs province, said he was itching to defect after Assad's forces killed dozens of demonstrators in Rastan early in the uprising.

But Farzat's son, a conscript, was being held at an army camp along with relatives of other military personnel from Rastan, to discourage defections.

"It was not easy. We were even being forced to shoot at protesters," said Farzat, who was stationed in the eastern Ghouta suburbs of Damascus, conservative Sunni Muslim areas that were among the first to erupt in pro-democracy protests.

Farzat said Sunni soldiers were ordered to deploy at roadblocks and fire at the demonstrations while Alawite Military Intelligence personnel stood to the back or on the balconies of apartments, ready to shoot the soldiers if they disobeyed orders.

As soon as his son was freed, he crossed sides.

"It took a year before I managed to defect," Farzat said. "I am not proud of this, but the regime has many ways to hurt our families, which is the main reason many are still hesitant to desert."

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on July 12, 2012, 07:19:37 PM
Wow, that article on the Syrian military shows things to be even more amazingly bad for Assad and his regime. The regime won't hold out for long now, which is quite different than I thought a few months ago. Back then I figured Assad would survive, though be much weakened politically. But now this and other articles I've read or posted here show that the rot is so bad, and the rebels gaining so much, that it's only a matter of time. I'd say it's past the tipping point of where there could be a resolution and Assad or some semblance of his government could remain. They're going to go down, and it'll likely be a blood bath as people get even with those who have been responsible for the slaughter.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on July 12, 2012, 07:27:26 PM
Yes. Not a good time to be an Alawite. Or Druze. Or Jew, Christian or Shi'ite.  Or Syrian.

You never know though.  Things may change.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on July 12, 2012, 07:30:00 PM
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on July 12, 2012, 07:27:26 PM
Yes. Not a good time to be an Alawite. Or Druze. Or Jew, Christian or Shi'ite.  Or Syrian.

You never know though.  Things may change.
Right. I don't expect some nice resolution to all this. I expect those with the power and organization to be first in line to take over. Often it's more exremist groups. And there and elsewhere there are plenty of extremist types waiting in the wings for regimes to fall.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on July 13, 2012, 06:26:27 AM
Well this resistance campaign could fizzle out too. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 13, 2012, 01:57:36 PM
uh oh.




Quote

Syria has begun moving its chemical weapons stockpile out of storage, U.S. warns


-Syria has undeclared arsenals of sarin nerve agent, mustard gas, cyanide
-U.S. officials fear Assad may want to use weapons against rebels or civilians
-Others believe he is trying to safeguard stockpile from his opponents

Syria has started to move part of its chemical weapons arsenal out of storage facilities, according to U.S. officials.

The country's undeclared stockpiles of sarin nerve agent, mustard gas and cyanide have long worried the U.S. officials and its allies in the region, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Western nations have looked for signs amid the rebellion against President Bashar al-Assad's government of any change in the location of those weapons, believed to be the world's largest stockpile.

American officials are divided on the reason for moving the arsenal.

Some fear Assad may want to use the weapons against rebels or civilians, while others said perhaps he is trying to safeguard them from his opponents.


    'Every family has had members killed': More than 250 dead after massacre in Syrian village by pro-government forces
    Assad regime suffers major blow as senior Syria ambassador defects from beleaguered government

U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland, travelling with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Phnom Penh, said: 'We repeatedly made it clear that the Syrian government has a responsibility to safeguard its stockpiles of (Saddam's) chemical weapons.'

She added that 'the international community will hold accountable any Syrian officials who fail to meet that obligation'.


The Syrian government denied chemical stockpiles have been moved, the Journal said.

Syria is one of eight states - along with Israel and nearby Egypt - that have not joined the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention, which means the world's chemical weapons watchdog has no jurisdiction to intervene there.

The Assad government has in the past denied having weapons of mass destruction.

The development comes a day after more than 250 Syrians were reportedly killed after a village was shelled and stormed by pro-government forces.

The massacre in the Sunni Muslim village Taramseh, Hama province, would be the worst yet since a rebellion against the rule of Assad began 17 months ago.

Civilians were allegedly killed 'execution-style' with shots to the head while others were shelled by tanks and helicopter gunships as their homes were burned down.

The Revolution Leadership Council of Hama said Taramseh was subjected to a barrage before pro-government Alawite militiamen swept in and killed victims one-by-one.

There were reports of bodies scattered in the surrounding fields, rivers and houses, with around 60 corpses were taken to a mosque.

Fadi Sameh, an opposition activist from Taramseh, left the village before the killings but was in touch with residents.

He said: 'It appears that Alawite militiamen from surrounding villages descended on Taramseh after its rebel defenders pulled out, and started killing the people.

'Every family in the town seems to have members killed. We have names of men, women and children from countless families.'

A detailed account by activists said a convoy of 25 vehicles carrying army and security forces, three armoured vehicles and five trucks mounted with artillery passed west through the town of Muharda and headed toward the village of Tremseh.

One reason given for the massacre was that government troops were attempting to take back the village from opposition hands.

Other reports said the village school was destroyed, and one of the victims was a doctor shot dead as he tried to help the wounded.

Death tolls are almost impossible to verify in Syria, but activists say more than 17,000 people have been killed since the uprising began.


You need a subscription to read the WSJ piece, so instead you get the Daily Fail (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2173148/Syria-begun-moving-chemical-weapons-stockpile-storage-U-S-warns.html).

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on July 13, 2012, 02:04:20 PM
Seriously...ugh.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 13, 2012, 02:05:34 PM
Bah, they're probably just relocating them for safekeeping.

They wouldn't be that fucking stupid.

:unsure:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on July 13, 2012, 02:27:30 PM
I imagine it worth a lot for saudi-financed (and other rich) terrorists, so those cannisters may pay the way out for many of the leadership?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 13, 2012, 02:44:27 PM
[mongers] We've heard this story before.  :rolleyes:[/mongers]
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on July 13, 2012, 03:02:01 PM
Go Bashir. Smash the peasants.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on July 13, 2012, 11:18:12 PM
200 killed in the biggest massacre so far.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/13/syria-hama-massacre-live
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on July 13, 2012, 11:45:52 PM

Syria Defector Soldiers, Townspeople Defend Krak Des Chevaliers

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etR1P2o2_KI (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etR1P2o2_KI)


Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on July 16, 2012, 03:07:21 AM
Syrian Armor Gone Wild!   :ph34r:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=OtzRB7R3Or4 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=OtzRB7R3Or4)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=H2FfwEMYJpc (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=H2FfwEMYJpc)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5o1YWRe1mc (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5o1YWRe1mc)

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on July 16, 2012, 04:21:41 AM
awesome!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 16, 2012, 05:57:26 AM
Quote from: citizen k on July 16, 2012, 03:07:21 AM
Syrian Armor Gone Wild!   :ph34r:

I just love middle eastern conflicts.  Combat jumpsuits.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on July 16, 2012, 08:13:02 AM
Quote from: citizen k on July 16, 2012, 03:07:21 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5o1YWRe1mc (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5o1YWRe1mc)
"Fucking ammo rack" was probably the last thought of that Syrian tank commander.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on July 16, 2012, 11:00:14 AM
Quote from: DGuller on July 16, 2012, 08:13:02 AM
Quote from: citizen k on July 16, 2012, 03:07:21 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5o1YWRe1mc (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5o1YWRe1mc)
"Fucking ammo rack" was probably the last thought of that Syrian tank commander.

Looks like they never fixed that ammo stowage problem.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on July 16, 2012, 12:46:49 PM
these people need to learn not the shout for their fairy-prince for everything from blowing up tanks to taking a dump all the time. Jeez.
There are perfect alternative like: FUck Yeah! or USA!USA!USA!.

that said: impressive.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 16, 2012, 12:53:41 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on July 16, 2012, 12:46:49 PM
these people need to learn not the shout for their fairy-prince for everything from blowing up tanks to taking a dump all the time. Jeez.

No shit.  Doesn't matter if it's Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Lawrence of Fucking Arabia, that shit is annoying.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on July 16, 2012, 03:47:08 PM
Assad forces get punk'd by rebels:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-FfIgnRMdI&feature=relmfu (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-FfIgnRMdI&feature=relmfu)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_8ouH11EIs (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_8ouH11EIs)


Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: chipwich on July 16, 2012, 03:51:29 PM
K guys God is great I get it.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on July 16, 2012, 08:35:10 PM
Quote from: citizen k on July 13, 2012, 11:45:52 PM

Syria Defector Soldiers, Townspeople Defend Krak Des Chevaliers

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etR1P2o2_KI (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etR1P2o2_KI)



Yays.  I went there once.  Fucking awesome castle.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on July 16, 2012, 11:02:51 PM
Quote from: citizen k on July 13, 2012, 11:45:52 PM

Syria Defector Soldiers, Townspeople Defend Krak Des Chevaliers

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etR1P2o2_KI (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etR1P2o2_KI)
A lot of loyalist Syrians/Russians in the comments.  :yuk:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on July 17, 2012, 03:18:52 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on July 16, 2012, 11:02:51 PM
Quote from: citizen k on July 13, 2012, 11:45:52 PM

Syria Defector Soldiers, Townspeople Defend Krak Des Chevaliers

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etR1P2o2_KI (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etR1P2o2_KI)
A lot of loyalist Syrians/Russians in the comments.  :yuk:
loyalist syrians are bound to become an endangered species real soon...
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on July 17, 2012, 10:45:00 AM
Quote from: chipwich on July 16, 2012, 03:51:29 PM
K guys God is great I get it.

That must be as natural as breathing.  I remember news footage of the 80s of the Mujaheddin fighting the Soviets, where every sentence included some form of "Allah".  I figured at the time that was an Afghani characteristic, but I guess they do that all over the Mooselimb world.

Yes, God certainly is great.  But there's no harm in sometimes saying instead, "Nice shot, Hamid!"
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Grey Fox on July 17, 2012, 10:48:14 AM
There is no god, allah is dead. Muhammed was a alcholic wife beating asshole.

:ph34r:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on July 17, 2012, 10:58:00 AM
Allah just pervades a lot of every day sayings without necessarily having a religious connotation.  Getting a train in Morocco I asked when it would leave to see if I had time to get some food, the guard told me 1230 inshallah.  He didn't literally mean 'God-willing', that's just what you say in Arabic (Muslim or Christian) - similarly phrases like alhamdulillah.

But then you don't have to dig too far into English to find similar things like 'God bless you' when someone sneezes.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 17, 2012, 10:58:22 AM
Mo Mo liked to hit the sauce hard*?  I've never heard that.

*(Mo Mo aimait boire beaucoup?)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Grey Fox on July 17, 2012, 11:28:46 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 17, 2012, 10:58:22 AM
Mo Mo liked to hit the sauce hard*?  I've never heard that.

*(Mo Mo aimait boire beaucoup?)

Muslim can't drink? Why not? Because Mo was a recovering alcoholic.

It's just hate logic, I have no idea how true that is but it doesn't matter.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on July 17, 2012, 11:34:09 AM
Any updates on how the Syrian rebels view Allah?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on July 17, 2012, 11:40:11 AM
Islam is Occasionalist (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occasionalism), meaning that they don't think things have causes, God does shit. The bomb doesn't explode because you pushed the button, you push the button as a prayer to god hoping that god will explode the bomb. That is why everything is god willing this and god willing that. Chanting God is Great while waiting for the timer to reach zero is an appeal to Gods vanity, blasphemous I know, but they still do it.

This is one of the primary reasons the muslim world is fucked up. They don't think that the effects have causes other than the will of god. You didn't get fat because you ate cake all day everyday, god made you fat. The same thing goes for politics, business and life in general.

This naturally doesn't mean that they don't see cause and effect in their daily life, they just ignore attempting to analyze and deal with causes as much as possible. They know driving into a wall causes a crash, so they try to avoid hitting walls, but since inshallah god decides who dies in traffic accidents they don't use seat belts.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on July 17, 2012, 11:40:49 AM
Quote from: DGuller on July 17, 2012, 11:34:09 AM
Any updates on how the Syrian rebels view Allah?

The Syrian Rebels love allah more than the government allies.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 17, 2012, 12:31:56 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 17, 2012, 10:45:00 AM
Yes, God certainly is great.  But there's no harm in sometimes saying instead, "Nice shot, Hamid!"

Heh, I lol'd.

Of course, it was only through the good grace and guidance of Allah who was with Hamid when he scored the kill, you know.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on July 17, 2012, 01:05:23 PM
Quote from: Viking on July 17, 2012, 11:40:11 AM
Islam is Occasionalist (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occasionalism),

interesting.
And yet another proof that philosophers sometimes come with the craziest shit possible... and can get people to believe it to their and others detriment.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on July 17, 2012, 01:06:34 PM
I'm sorta hoping Bashir goes out in a blaze of glory. Pearl handled pistol in one hand, and a some sarin in the other.

TV HAS BEEN BORING
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on July 17, 2012, 01:15:10 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on July 17, 2012, 01:05:23 PM
Quote from: Viking on July 17, 2012, 11:40:11 AM
Islam is Occasionalist (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occasionalism),

interesting.
And yet another proof that philosophers sometimes come with the craziest shit possible... and can get people to believe it to their and others detriment.

Yes, and in this case they actually believe this shit. We were fortunate to have Newton and Theologians clever enough to invent the watchmaker god that just wrote the laws of nature creating the clockwork universe newtons laws describe. The muslims are trapped by their 'infallible' and 'perfect' book. God wrote their book word by word so none of it is allegory and none of it is metaphor (which christian theologians have used for generations to ignore bits of the bible with either conflict with other bits, are blatantly untrue or immoral). The Koran defines god pretty specifically, he does this, he does that etc. Basically everything that happens is a miracle because it is done by god, there is not space for science or responsibility even in this view of reality.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on July 17, 2012, 01:18:32 PM
QuoteThe drought in southern Iran is part of a "soft war" launched against the Islamic republic by the West, the Fars news agency quoted an Iranian vice president as saying on Monday.

"I am suspicious about the drought in the southern part of the country," Hassan Mousavi, who also heads Iran's cultural heritage and tourism organisation, said at a ceremony to introdue the nation's new chief of meteorological department.

"The world arrogance and colonist (term used by Iranian authorities to label the West) are influencing Iran's climate conditions using technology... The drought is an acute issue and soft war is completely evident... This level of drought is not normal."

Iran has experienced several droughts in recent years, especially in the south where it was hit in recent weeks by violent sand storms that engulfed several cities.

Sand storms particularly enter Iran from neighbouring Iraq where desertification has increased over the last two decades due to wars.

Last year, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused Western countries of devising plans to "cause drought" in Iran, adding that "European countries are using special equipment to force clouds to dump" their water on their continent.

Iranian leaders claim on a daily basis that Western countries, led by arch-foe the United States, devise "plots" in many forms to undermine the Islamic republic and to impede its economic and scientific development.

They also accuse world powers of colluding against Iran's national unity, independence, political establishment, culture as well as international relations.

:whistle:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Grey Fox on July 17, 2012, 01:26:57 PM
I'm pretty sure England would be willing to share some clouds with Iran.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 17, 2012, 01:29:52 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on July 17, 2012, 01:06:34 PM
I'm sorta hoping Bashir goes out in a blaze of glory. Pearl handled pistol in one hand, and a some sarin in the other.

TV HAS BEEN BORING

Martin Bashir is made of stuff too strong for that.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on July 17, 2012, 01:38:14 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on July 17, 2012, 01:29:52 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on July 17, 2012, 01:06:34 PM
I'm sorta hoping Bashir goes out in a blaze of glory. Pearl handled pistol in one hand, and a some sarin in the other.

TV HAS BEEN BORING

Martin Bashir is made of stuff too strong for that.

Flag Code Bashir is gonna go out with a strap on in his ass hanging from a  motel 6 celing fan.

I await that day
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on July 17, 2012, 03:05:05 PM
Quote from: Viking on July 17, 2012, 11:40:11 AM
Islam is Occasionalist (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occasionalism), meaning that they don't think things have causes, God does shit. The bomb doesn't explode because you pushed the button, you push the button as a prayer to god hoping that god will explode the bomb. That is why everything is god willing this and god willing that. Chanting God is Great while waiting for the timer to reach zero is an appeal to Gods vanity, blasphemous I know, but they still do it.

This is one of the primary reasons the muslim world is fucked up. They don't think that the effects have causes other than the will of god. You didn't get fat because you ate cake all day everyday, god made you fat. The same thing goes for politics, business and life in general.

This naturally doesn't mean that they don't see cause and effect in their daily life, they just ignore attempting to analyze and deal with causes as much as possible. They know driving into a wall causes a crash, so they try to avoid hitting walls, but since inshallah god decides who dies in traffic accidents they don't use seat belts.

Neat how your link doesn't actually back up your statement.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on July 17, 2012, 10:52:48 PM
Quote
Syrian battles rage in capital, Russia pressed
By Mariam Karouny and Erika Solomon


BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syrian rebels said they shot down an army helicopter on Tuesday as they battled government forces backed by air power and artillery in the fiercest fighting to hit Damascus since the revolt against President Bashar al-Assad erupted last year.

Rebel officers said thousands of fighters had converged on the capital, a government stronghold during 16 months of turmoil, to bring the battle from Syria's turbulent provinces into Assad's power centre.

Colonel Qassem Saadeddine, spokesman of the joint command of the Free Syrian Army inside Syria, told Reuters via Skype the rebels would intensify attacks inside Damascus and target sensitive security installations in what is called now an operation to "liberate Damascus".

"There is no going back. The Damascus battle has priority for us. We have started the operation to liberate Damascus," Saadeddine said, adding the rebels had called their operation "Damascus volcano and Syrian earthquake".


But it was not clear whether either side could deliver a decisive blow. Free Syrian Army fighters said they had killed 70 members of the security forces and pro-Assad militiamen known as shabbiha over the past 24 hours.

The encroachment of violence into the capital came as United Nations envoy Kofi Annan said he hoped the U.N. Security Council would be able to reach agreement on a Syria resolution.

The council is due to vote on Wednesday on a Western-backed resolution that threatens Syrian authorities with sanctions if they do not stop using heavy weapons in towns, but Russia has said it will block the move.

"I would hope that we will continue discussions and hopefully find a language that will pull everybody together for us to move forward on this critical issue," Annan said in Moscow after meeting Russia's President Vladimir Putin.

Video uploaded by opposition activists showed Damascus buildings and shops that were set ablaze by what they said was rocket and artillery fire. One showed a grocer sweeping out the scorched contents of his shop as smoke still rose from the back.

"I couldn't sleep at all. There was shelling with artillery and helicopter gunships from midnight until 6 in the morning. They didn't stop firing for a single minute," said a Damascus resident, contacted from Beirut by telephone.

"They were using artillery, helicopter gunships and mortars. At dawn you could hear the call to prayer mixed with the sound of gunfire. Now we can hear clashes with heavy machinegun fire. Helicopters are hovering over the area."

Clashes continued in the Midan district in central Damascus and artillery and rocket fire also hit the opposition area of Tadamon, on the outskirts, residents said. Many roads in and out of the capital had been closed, they added.

Two rebel fighters and an activist said rebels shot down an army helicopter in the Qaboun district in north-east Damascus. "Helicopters are flying at low altitude. It's easy to target them using anti-aircraft weapons," a senior rebel officer said.

Israel's army intelligence chief said Assad's control of Damascus was slipping and he had redeployed troops from areas near the Israeli frontline to bolster forces around the city.

"Assad has moved many of his forces that were in the Golan Heights to the conflict areas," Major-General Aviv Kochavi said. "He's not afraid of Israel at this point, but primarily wants to bolster his forces around Damascus.


"DRAINING THE REGIME"

Syria's Information Minister Omran Zoabi denied media reports which he said "do not reflect facts on the ground", saying security forces had confronted fighters who infiltrated the capital Damascus and forced many to flee.

"What is happening is that some armed elements infiltrated Damascus and tried to make a move in one of the areas. But the security forces surrounded them and dealt with them - and are still dealing with them," he told Reuters.

"Some (fighters) have surrendered and others escaped on foot and by car and are firing randomly in the air to frighten people," Zoabi said.

Opposition activists said clashes close to the seat of government showed that rebels were chipping away at state power in a capital once seen as Assad's impenetrable stronghold.

"When you turn your guns against the heart of Damascus, on Midan, you have lost the city," said Damascus-based activist Imad Moaz. "The rebels in the street have the support of families across Damascus."

One Free Syrian Army officer said thousands of rebel fighters from the opposition centers of Idlib, Raqqa, Hama and Homs had moved to Damascus, but lacked firepower to deliver a decisive blow and were seeking instead to "drain the regime".

Another senior rebel said Damascus was "in a state of general alert ... We are doing well but we can not announce anything yet. We cannot talk about seizing an area because the regime will then destroy it completely."

"It is too soon to talk about toppling him now."

REFUGEES FLEE

While fighting raged in Damascus, a Turkish official said a Syrian brigadier general and several other military defectors were among 1,280 Syrians to have fled to Turkey overnight.

They were the latest in a steady stream of officers to join the revolt, and follow the defection of Syria's ambassador to Iraq last week and the escape from Syria by Manaf Tlas, a member of Assad's inner circle. Tlas has not spoken publicly since defecting but French President Francois Hollande gave the first official confirmation on Tuesday that he was in France.

Underlining the depth of the crisis, neighboring Iraq called on its citizens - many of whom had fled to escape Iraq's own sectarian bloodshed - to leave Syria.

Clashes and shelling in opposition areas continued across the country and the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which has a network of activists across the country, said more than 150 people were killed on Monday.

Activist accounts are hard to verify because the government restricts access to international media.

With violence rising, the West wants Moscow to drop its support for Assad. Along with China, Moscow has vetoed action against the president at the U.N. Security Council. But before talks with Annan, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov signaled no change in Moscow's position.

Lavrov said Western efforts to pass a Security Council resolution, which would extend a U.N. monitoring mission in Syria and also include a threat of sanctions, contained "elements of blackmail". He called for support for Moscow's rival text, which does not call for sanctions.

"If our partners decide to block our resolution no matter what, then the U.N. mission will not have a mandate and will have to leave Syria. That would be a pity," he said.

The small, unarmed U.N. monitoring mission of about 300 is the only international military presence in Syria. It was brought in as part of a peace plan backed by Annan, but suspended due to rising violence in Syria. Activists say more than 17,000 people have died.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, interviewed by the BBC during a Middle East tour, said she hoped Moscow would open the way for a Yemen-style transition to avoid all-out civil war. Former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh stepped down in February after months of protests, in a U.S.-backed transfer of power brokered by Yemen's wealthy Gulf Arab neighbors.

The White House also warned the Syrian government that it would be held accountable for safeguarding any chemical weapons after Western and Israeli officials said Assad appeared to be shifting some from storage sites.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague, speaking after meeting Syrian refugees in Jordan, said his visit left him in no doubt "that a Chapter Seven resolution of the United Nations Security Council is required to mandate the implementation of Kofi Annan's peace (plan)".

Chapter Seven allows the 15-member council to authorize actions ranging from diplomatic and economic sanctions to military intervention. U.S. officials have said they are talking about sanctions on Syria, not military intervention.

"We will continue to argue for it over the course of the coming hours," he told a news conference in Amman.

What began as a protest movement in Syria, inspired by demonstrations in other Arab countries, has become an armed insurgency fighting against Assad's crackdown. The International Committee for the Red Cross now classifies the conflict as a civil war.


Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on July 18, 2012, 06:12:28 AM
The Defense Minister was killed by a suicide bomber!

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/18/12806756-state-tv-syrian-defense-minister-killed-in-suicide-blast?lite
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on July 18, 2012, 06:13:27 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on July 18, 2012, 06:12:28 AM
The Defense Minister was killed by a suicide bomber!

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/18/12806756-state-tv-syrian-defense-minister-killed-in-suicide-blast?lite

suicide bomb for democracy!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Martinus on July 18, 2012, 06:13:38 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on July 18, 2012, 06:12:28 AM
The Defense Minister was killed by a suicide bomber!

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/18/12806756-state-tv-syrian-defense-minister-killed-in-suicide-blast?lite

Good.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on July 18, 2012, 06:19:34 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 18, 2012, 06:13:38 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on July 18, 2012, 06:12:28 AM
The Defense Minister was killed by a suicide bomber!

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/18/12806756-state-tv-syrian-defense-minister-killed-in-suicide-blast?lite

Good.

he most certainly deserved it. However the method seem to confirm fears that the country now hosts a good amount of radicals, and we are likely to see a change of figurehead and tribe in control, not a system change.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Martinus on July 18, 2012, 06:21:11 AM
Quote from: Tamas on July 18, 2012, 06:19:34 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 18, 2012, 06:13:38 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on July 18, 2012, 06:12:28 AM
The Defense Minister was killed by a suicide bomber!

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/18/12806756-state-tv-syrian-defense-minister-killed-in-suicide-blast?lite

Good.

he most certainly deserved it. However the method seem to confirm fears that the country now hosts a good amount of radicals, and we are likely to see a change of figurehead and tribe in control, not a system change.

Perhaps but that does not necessarily mean so. Most WW2 assassinations of high ranking nazi officials were, to a degree, suicide attacks. That does not necessarily mean the attackers are radicals. They may simply be sufficiently pissed off/desperate.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on July 18, 2012, 06:23:07 AM
As Kissinger said about the Iran Iraq War. "It's a pity they both can't lose."

The shit will hit the fan so I think the only real moral option is for us to make sure that when this whole thing is over the guys who have been fucking with us for years end up hanging from lamp-posts. So, yes, the dead syrian defense minister is a good thing.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on July 18, 2012, 06:24:30 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 18, 2012, 06:21:11 AM
Quote from: Tamas on July 18, 2012, 06:19:34 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 18, 2012, 06:13:38 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on July 18, 2012, 06:12:28 AM
The Defense Minister was killed by a suicide bomber!

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/18/12806756-state-tv-syrian-defense-minister-killed-in-suicide-blast?lite

Good.

he most certainly deserved it. However the method seem to confirm fears that the country now hosts a good amount of radicals, and we are likely to see a change of figurehead and tribe in control, not a system change.

Perhaps but that does not necessarily mean so. Most WW2 assassinations of high ranking nazi officials were, to a degree, suicide attacks. That does not necessarily mean the attackers are radicals. They may simply be sufficiently pissed off/desperate.

I predict we'll public executions of homosexuals in Syria within the next 2-3 years.

And Marty will change his tune.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Martinus on July 18, 2012, 06:26:27 AM
Quote from: mongers on July 18, 2012, 06:24:30 AMPerhaps but that does not necessarily mean so. Most WW2 assassinations of high ranking nazi officials were, to a degree, suicide attacks. That does not necessarily mean the attackers are radicals. They may simply be sufficiently pissed off/desperate.

I predict we'll public executions of homosexuals in Syria within the next 2-3 years.

And Marty will change his tune.
[/quote]

Possibly and no.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on July 18, 2012, 07:19:05 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 18, 2012, 06:26:27 AM
Quote from: mongers on July 18, 2012, 06:24:30 AMPerhaps but that does not necessarily mean so. Most WW2 assassinations of high ranking nazi officials were, to a degree, suicide attacks. That does not necessarily mean the attackers are radicals. They may simply be sufficiently pissed off/desperate.

I predict we'll public executions of homosexuals in Syria within the next 2-3 years.

And Marty will change his tune.

Possibly and no.
[/quote]Can you make repost this to make sense? I know it is ironic that I, of all people, would ask someone to make sense, but well.. there it is.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on July 18, 2012, 11:09:09 AM
Apparently, according to rumours, Asmaa's on her way to Russia now.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on July 18, 2012, 12:18:10 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on July 18, 2012, 11:09:09 AM
Apparently, according to rumours, Asmaa's on her way to Russia now.

Fleeing from Syria's trouble?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on July 18, 2012, 12:24:35 PM
Quote from: Syt on July 18, 2012, 12:18:10 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on July 18, 2012, 11:09:09 AM
Apparently, according to rumours, Asmaa's on her way to Russia now.

Fleeing from Syria's trouble?

All the smoke in the air was bothering her.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on July 18, 2012, 12:29:36 PM
Asmaa?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 18, 2012, 12:30:44 PM
I'm assuming that's Bashir's trophy wife.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on July 18, 2012, 01:09:42 PM
Bashir should realize he would get a +2 DRM on his attack dicerolls if he releases chemical weapons.

And I'd give his wife sanctuary.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on July 18, 2012, 01:20:17 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on July 18, 2012, 01:09:42 PM
Bashir should realize he would get a +2 DRM on his attack dicerolls if he releases chemical weapons.

And I'd give his wife sanctuary.

But what is the DRM for the NATO entry roll if he uses chemical weapons?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on July 18, 2012, 01:38:05 PM
Quote from: Viking on July 18, 2012, 01:20:17 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on July 18, 2012, 01:09:42 PM
Bashir should realize he would get a +2 DRM on his attack dicerolls if he releases chemical weapons.

And I'd give his wife sanctuary.

But what is the DRM for the NATO entry roll if he uses chemical weapons?



All Syrian Gov't defense values drop to "1"

Assad rolls on the leader survival table each turn (2D6)

1-6: Hunkered in the bunker. A-OK.
7-8: Family member gets popped.
9-10: Prayer to Allah answered. Another turn staying alive
11: American Bunker Penetrator turns him into puree
12: Assad is dragged out of his bunker by rebels. He takes a knife in the anus. His wife takes a pounding from the rebels.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 18, 2012, 03:45:41 PM
Quote from: Tamas on July 18, 2012, 06:19:34 AM
However the method seem to confirm fears that the country now hosts a good amount of radicals, and we are likely to see a change of figurehead and tribe in control, not a system change.

Apparently the late reports are stating that the parties responsible had planted an explosive device, as opposed to early reports of a suicide bomber.

In any case, they scored a hat trick on this one.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on July 18, 2012, 04:51:55 PM
 celebrations in Idlib:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMYp9SyVQD0 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMYp9SyVQD0)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzZGRdu3APw (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzZGRdu3APw)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on July 19, 2012, 06:44:08 AM
Assad has retreated to the Alawite heartland to direct the fight.

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/19/12829456-syrias-assad-reportedly-directs-counterattack-from-tribal-heartland-as-rebels-stream-into-capital (http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/19/12829456-syrias-assad-reportedly-directs-counterattack-from-tribal-heartland-as-rebels-stream-into-capital?lite&__utma=14933801.939712181.1342427917.1342649857.1342698098.9&__utmb=14933801.1.10.1342698098&__utmc=14933801&__utmx=-&__utmz=14933801.1342427917.1.1.utmcsr=%28direct%29%7Cutmccn=%28direct%29%7Cutmcmd=%28none%29&__utmv=14933801.%7C8=Earned%20By=msnbc%7Ccover=1%5E12=Landing%20Content=Mixed=1%5E13=Landing%20Hostname=www.nbcnews.com=1%5E30=Visit%20Type%20to%20Content=Earned%20to%20Mixed=1&__utmk=173202979)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on July 19, 2012, 06:54:48 AM
OMG it turns out, there are people out there who think Assad is the hero of the opressed national rule's fight against evil globalism (and the jews of course).

One of them even wrote a tiny article about this on the online edition of the main right-sided newspaper in Hungary.

Fucking ignorant asswipes. A lot of ignorant people must think in good-evil, black-white terms. If the rebels' are questionable-motivated tribals, then Assad must be a hero in shining armor.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 19, 2012, 11:20:22 AM
LOL, Russia and China at it again, cock-blocking the Security Council on sanctions "just because".

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on July 19, 2012, 11:32:12 AM
Quote from: Tamas on July 19, 2012, 06:54:48 AM
OMG it turns out, there are people out there who think Assad is the hero of the opressed national rule's fight against evil globalism (and the jews of course).

One of them even wrote a tiny article about this on the online edition of the main right-sided newspaper in Hungary.

Fucking ignorant asswipes. A lot of ignorant people must think in good-evil, black-white terms. If the rebels' are questionable-motivated tribals, then Assad must be a hero in shining armor.

I'm trying to figure out who I'm rooting for in this one.  The rebels have all sorts of unpleasant elements in their ranks.  On the other hand, Assad is trained as a doctor...
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 11:33:49 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on July 19, 2012, 11:20:22 AM
LOL, Russia and China at it again, cock-blocking the Security Council on sanctions "just because".

I do wonder when either of them will realize that international politics is not necessarily a zero-sum game.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on July 19, 2012, 11:37:21 AM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 11:33:49 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on July 19, 2012, 11:20:22 AM
LOL, Russia and China at it again, cock-blocking the Security Council on sanctions "just because".

I do wonder when either of them will realize that international politics is not necessarily a zero-sum game.

I think they take a very mercenary approach to foreign policy.  In the US people debate if this will help the region, or the people of Syria, or the peace process etc.  I think the Russians and the Chinese ask "Will this help us".
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on July 19, 2012, 11:38:10 AM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 11:33:49 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on July 19, 2012, 11:20:22 AM
LOL, Russia and China at it again, cock-blocking the Security Council on sanctions "just because".

I do wonder when either of them will realize that international politics is not necessarily a zero-sum game.

not sure what you mean, it is pretty easy in their case: they cannot really have the Sec. Council declare that it is okay and support-worthy for muslim tribes to rebel against their overlords. Both China and Russia would have massive potential problems if that becomes modus operandi.

We may debate the relevance of precedence in this case, but I think this is the main reason for them being an ass over this.
And it's old reflexes as well. Just think 1849, when the Hungarians officially threw the Habsburgs out - we were 34 years after Napoleon yet the Russkies couldn't allow this because they had millions of Polacks to oppress. So they moved in and crushed the Magyars.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 19, 2012, 11:41:20 AM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 11:33:49 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on July 19, 2012, 11:20:22 AM
LOL, Russia and China at it again, cock-blocking the Security Council on sanctions "just because".

I do wonder when either of them will realize that international politics is not necessarily a zero-sum game.

Of course not;  we're going on how many decades now of offering absolutely nothing to the concept of international collective security and cooperation?  The US ambassador was rather pointed during her press conference about their votes.

Honestly, I really believe the only reason those nations even belong to the United Nations is so their diplomatic corps has a nice place to crash and shop in Manhattan.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 19, 2012, 11:42:22 AM
Fuck it.  Let NATO ramp up Libya Part Deux.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on July 19, 2012, 11:42:57 AM
Quote from: Tamas on July 19, 2012, 11:38:10 AM
not sure what you mean, it is pretty easy in their case: they cannot really have the Sec. Council declare that it is okay and support-worthy for muslim tribes to rebel against their overlords. Both China and Russia would have massive potential problems if that becomes modus operandi.
Not to mention that they don't want to set a precedent that a government mass-murdering its own people is not OK.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 19, 2012, 11:44:25 AM
Quote from: Tamas on July 19, 2012, 11:38:10 AM
Both China and Russia would have massive potential problems if that becomes modus operandi.

Lost weapons sales is a very poor excuse.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 11:49:24 AM
Quote from: Tamas on July 19, 2012, 11:38:10 AM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 11:33:49 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on July 19, 2012, 11:20:22 AM
LOL, Russia and China at it again, cock-blocking the Security Council on sanctions "just because".

I do wonder when either of them will realize that international politics is not necessarily a zero-sum game.

not sure what you mean, it is pretty easy in their case: they cannot really have the Sec. Council declare that it is okay and support-worthy for muslim tribes to rebel against their overlords. Both China and Russia would have massive potential problems if that becomes modus operandi.

We may debate the relevance of precedence in this case, but I think this is the main reason for them being an ass over this.
And it's old reflexes as well. Just think 1849, when the Hungarians officially threw the Habsburgs out - we were 34 years after Napoleon yet the Russkies couldn't allow this because they had millions of Polacks to oppress. So they moved in and crushed the Magyars.

I'm not quite sure I buy that as their motivation in this instance, but anyway I guess I'm thinking more big picture.  Specifically in Russia's case, they tend to alienate themselves from the West and go after some pretty low-tier allies/trading partners/client states.  I know some of that is inertia from the Cold War, but it would serve them well to step back and take a rational look at what is in their actual long-term national interest. 

Being friends with Cuba, Syria, Venezuela, North Korea, etc. might result in some small-scale short-term economic benefits and it's always fun for them to piss off the US in doing so, but it's not going to help much in the long run.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 11:52:02 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on July 19, 2012, 11:42:22 AM
Fuck it.  Let NATO ramp up Libya Part Deux.

No thanks-- I don't want any part of that mess.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on July 19, 2012, 12:08:26 PM
We'd be better off with a Bosnia style resolution. Give weapons, training and intel to anti-assad forces on the grounds that assad is anti-west. Then bomb the shit out of any assad heavy equipment or large activity.

If only to give the message that this is what happens to tyrants that fuck with the west.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 19, 2012, 12:16:28 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 11:52:02 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on July 19, 2012, 11:42:22 AM
Fuck it.  Let NATO ramp up Libya Part Deux.

No thanks-- I don't want any part of that mess.

It'd be a piece of cake.

Let somebody else clean up the post-party mess.  The Euros would be all into it, especially the French.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on July 19, 2012, 12:18:33 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on July 19, 2012, 11:20:22 AM
LOL, Russia and China at it again, cock-blocking the Security Council on sanctions "just because".

It's win-win. Russia/China get to pose as viable friends for dictators everywhere who won't let the West interfere when they need to kill their populace, maybe getting some clout in those areas. The West gets to take the moral high ground without having to do much.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: frunk on July 19, 2012, 12:19:56 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 11:52:02 AM

No thanks-- I don't want any part of that mess.

If it was as relatively cheap an intervention as Libya I think it would be a no brainer.  I don't see it being even close to that, particularly if Russia gets more actively involved.

Libya was easy because Qaddafi didn't have any friends to back him up.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on July 19, 2012, 12:20:01 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 11:52:02 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on July 19, 2012, 11:42:22 AM
Fuck it.  Let NATO ramp up Libya Part Deux.

No thanks-- I don't want any part of that mess.



You don't want to get into . . . .

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Finstantyeah.org%2FYEAH.JPG&hash=16aa3b07dbdf61d369e08d775e340771f145e2ec)

Syria's trouble?

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fminiganb.files.wordpress.com%2F2012%2F06%2Fcsi_miami_yeah.jpg&hash=ed0fadf43741fc89bf123378086ef8d043c6356d)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 19, 2012, 12:20:46 PM
 :lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 12:31:49 PM
Quote from: frunk on July 19, 2012, 12:19:56 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 11:52:02 AM

No thanks-- I don't want any part of that mess.

If it was as relatively cheap an intervention as Libya I think it would be a no brainer.  I don't see it being even close to that, particularly if Russia gets more actively involved.

Libya was easy because Qaddafi didn't have any friends to back him up.

Libya was expensive.  Cruise missiles aren't free.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 12:34:11 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on July 19, 2012, 12:16:28 PM
It'd be a piece of cake.

I didn't say it would be that hard, at least not the toppling Assad part. 

QuoteLet somebody else clean up the post-party mess.  The Euros would be all into it, especially the French.

We'd still have our fingerprints all over it, as far as most of the world is concerned.  The French would fuck it all up & we'd be stuck with the blame.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on July 19, 2012, 12:38:16 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 12:34:11 PM
We'd still have our fingerprints all over it, as far as most of the world is concerned.  The French would fuck it all up & we'd be stuck with the blame.

We're damned if we do and damned if we don't, so who cares about that?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: frunk on July 19, 2012, 12:54:00 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 12:31:49 PM
Libya was expensive.  Cruise missiles aren't free.

Meh, compared to what has been spent in Iraq, Afghanistan or other interventions it was cheap for getting rid of Qaddafi and with less long term commitment.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Barrister on July 19, 2012, 12:56:26 PM
Quote from: frunk on July 19, 2012, 12:54:00 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 12:31:49 PM
Libya was expensive.  Cruise missiles aren't free.

Meh, compared to what has been spent in Iraq, Afghanistan or other interventions it was cheap for getting rid of Qaddafi and with less long term commitment.

Our involvement in Libya was absolutely money well spent (and pretty darn cheap too). 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 01:00:40 PM
Quote from: garbon on July 19, 2012, 12:38:16 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 12:34:11 PM
We'd still have our fingerprints all over it, as far as most of the world is concerned.  The French would fuck it all up & we'd be stuck with the blame.

We're damned if we do and damned if we don't, so who cares about that?

Then go with the option that costs less money.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on July 19, 2012, 01:04:23 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 01:00:40 PM
Quote from: garbon on July 19, 2012, 12:38:16 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 12:34:11 PM
We'd still have our fingerprints all over it, as far as most of the world is concerned.  The French would fuck it all up & we'd be stuck with the blame.

We're damned if we do and damned if we don't, so who cares about that?

Then go with the option that costs less money.

Why? Why shouldn't we just do what we think is best (which may or may not coincide with the cheapest option)?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 01:06:26 PM
Quote from: frunk on July 19, 2012, 12:54:00 PM
Meh, compared to what has been spent in Iraq, Afghanistan or other interventions it was cheap for getting rid of Qaddafi and with less long term commitment.

I don't care what it cost relative to Iraq, Afghanistan, WWII, or whatever.  The absolute cost is what's important.  We spent a lot of money we didn't have on a war that IMO did not serve our national interests.  While it was cool to see Qaddafi get whacked and then used as a ventriloquist doll, I think we should've let someone else foot the bill.

Quote from: Barrister on July 19, 2012, 12:56:26 PM
Our involvement in Libya was absolutely money well spent (and pretty darn cheap too). 

Yours might have been, for all I know.  Any idea what Canada spent?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 01:07:43 PM
Quote from: garbon on July 19, 2012, 01:04:23 PM
Why? Why shouldn't we just do what we think is best (which may or may not coincide with the cheapest option)?

Okay, then what is best.  Thought you said we were damned if we do, damned if we don't.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on July 19, 2012, 01:09:22 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 01:06:26 PM
Quote from: frunk on July 19, 2012, 12:54:00 PM
Meh, compared to what has been spent in Iraq, Afghanistan or other interventions it was cheap for getting rid of Qaddafi and with less long term commitment.

I don't care what it cost relative to Iraq, Afghanistan, WWII, or whatever.  The absolute cost is what's important.  We spent a lot of money we didn't have on a war that IMO did not serve our national interests.  While it was cool to see Qaddafi get whacked and then used as a ventriloquist doll, I think we should've let someone else foot the bill.

Quote from: Barrister on July 19, 2012, 12:56:26 PM
Our involvement in Libya was absolutely money well spent (and pretty darn cheap too). 

Yours might have been, for all I know.  Any idea what Canada spent?

Did you think Iraq served our interests?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on July 19, 2012, 01:13:27 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 01:07:43 PM
Quote from: garbon on July 19, 2012, 01:04:23 PM
Why? Why shouldn't we just do what we think is best (which may or may not coincide with the cheapest option)?

Okay, then what is best.  Thought you said we were damned if we do, damned if we don't.

We are - as in opinion by other nations/groups...so I don't see why we don't simply do what we think is best and leaving the hand-wringers to their hand-wrining.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Barrister on July 19, 2012, 01:14:51 PM
How much do you think the US spent.  A billion dollars?

I'd pay a billion dollars to get rid of Qadaffi in exchange for a sort-of democracy in a second.

Canada sent 7 planes and a couple of ships.  Pretty sure you could add them up to $50 or $500 mil.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on July 19, 2012, 01:24:22 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 01:06:26 PM
Quote from: frunk on July 19, 2012, 12:54:00 PM
Meh, compared to what has been spent in Iraq, Afghanistan or other interventions it was cheap for getting rid of Qaddafi and with less long term commitment.

I don't care what it cost relative to Iraq, Afghanistan, WWII, or whatever.  The absolute cost is what's important.  We spent a lot of money we didn't have on a war that IMO did not serve our national interests.  While it was cool to see Qaddafi get whacked and then used as a ventriloquist doll, I think we should've let someone else foot the bill.

Quote from: Barrister on July 19, 2012, 12:56:26 PM
Our involvement in Libya was absolutely money well spent (and pretty darn cheap too). 

Yours might have been, for all I know.  Any idea what Canada spent?

Better watch that bragging about Canada's relative welath, BB. We'lll be asked to pay a bigger share of expenses next time.  ;)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Barrister on July 19, 2012, 01:29:40 PM
Quote from: Malthus on July 19, 2012, 01:24:22 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 01:06:26 PM
Quote from: frunk on July 19, 2012, 12:54:00 PM
Meh, compared to what has been spent in Iraq, Afghanistan or other interventions it was cheap for getting rid of Qaddafi and with less long term commitment.

I don't care what it cost relative to Iraq, Afghanistan, WWII, or whatever.  The absolute cost is what's important.  We spent a lot of money we didn't have on a war that IMO did not serve our national interests.  While it was cool to see Qaddafi get whacked and then used as a ventriloquist doll, I think we should've let someone else foot the bill.

Quote from: Barrister on July 19, 2012, 12:56:26 PM
Our involvement in Libya was absolutely money well spent (and pretty darn cheap too). 

Yours might have been, for all I know.  Any idea what Canada spent?

Better watch that bragging about Canada's relative welath, BB. We'lll be asked to pay a bigger share of expenses next time.  ;)

Well I for one think Canada should do a better job at sharing the welath internationally. -_-
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 01:48:41 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on July 19, 2012, 01:09:22 PM
Did you think Iraq served our interests?

I think the invasion did.  But I don't think that's relevant to this conversation.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 01:51:48 PM
Quote from: Barrister on July 19, 2012, 01:14:51 PM
How much do you think the US spent.  A billion dollars?

Best I could find on a cursory search was a billion as of last August.  Don't know how much we spent after that. 

QuoteI'd pay a billion dollars to get rid of Qadaffi in exchange for a sort-of democracy in a second.

That's fine for you.  My country is flat broke & can't afford to blow our money on stuff like that.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on July 19, 2012, 02:01:01 PM
But apparently it can afford to blow a trillion dollars on Iraq.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on July 19, 2012, 02:04:01 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on July 19, 2012, 11:20:22 AM
LOL, Russia and China at it again, cock-blocking the Security Council on sanctions "just because".


Its just because they are sociopathic kleptocracies.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 02:04:38 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 19, 2012, 02:01:01 PM
But apparently it can afford to blow a trillion dollars on Iraq.

First, I would not have spent that much.  Secondly, you people stop bringing up Iraq.  Thirdly, spending too much money on one thing is not justification to spend additional money (even if a smaller amount) on something else later.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: frunk on July 19, 2012, 02:05:12 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 01:51:48 PM
That's fine for you.  My country is flat broke & can't afford to blow our money on stuff like that.

We waste a billion dollars on weapon systems we never use, or pork barrel projects to nowhere.  Getting rid of a crappy dictator for a billion dollars?  That's a bargain you can't pass up.  Hell, for a billion dollars a pop we could change the regime of every country in the world for what it cost to occupy Iraq each year.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 02:08:57 PM
I fail to see the logic in wasting money just because we've wasted money in the past.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: frunk on July 19, 2012, 02:11:27 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 02:08:57 PM
I fail to see the logic in wasting money just because we've wasted money in the past.

That's the point, it's not a waste of money, and in fact it's probably one of the more efficient uses of US military power in the past 20 years.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on July 19, 2012, 02:11:58 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 02:04:38 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 19, 2012, 02:01:01 PM
But apparently it can afford to blow a trillion dollars on Iraq.

First, I would not have spent that much.  Secondly, you people stop bringing up Iraq.  Thirdly, spending too much money on one thing is not justification to spend additional money (even if a smaller amount) on something else later.
No, of course Iraq is not a justification.  Mentioning it, however, is a good way to discredit a position that is inconsistent, and justified by a pretext rather than rational analysis.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 02:30:59 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 19, 2012, 02:11:58 PM
No, of course Iraq is not a justification.  Mentioning it, however, is a good way to discredit a position that is inconsistent, and justified by a pretext rather than rational analysis.

I'm not quite sure I follow you.  Whether or not Iraq was justified, the expense of the Iraq war/occupation is IMO more reason to tighten up the purse strings when it comes to more foreign adventures.  I'm not saying we go completely isolationist-- I just think we should carefully evaluate the national interest benefits vs. the cost involved. 

IMO Qadaffi was not worth spending a billion plus that we didn't have.  I'm equally skeptical of spending any money to help people who most likely hate us as much as the Assad regime does.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Neil on July 19, 2012, 02:44:59 PM
Quote from: Martinus on July 18, 2012, 06:21:11 AM
Perhaps but that does not necessarily mean so. Most WW2 assassinations of high ranking nazi officials were, to a degree, suicide attacks.
Yeah, but none of them did any good.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Neil on July 19, 2012, 02:46:17 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 02:08:57 PM
I fail to see the logic in wasting money just because we've wasted money in the past.
In the past?  Money is wasted then, now and in the future.  Does the USAF still exist?  If so, money is wasted.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Barrister on July 19, 2012, 03:09:17 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 02:30:59 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 19, 2012, 02:11:58 PM
No, of course Iraq is not a justification.  Mentioning it, however, is a good way to discredit a position that is inconsistent, and justified by a pretext rather than rational analysis.

I'm not quite sure I follow you.  Whether or not Iraq was justified, the expense of the Iraq war/occupation is IMO more reason to tighten up the purse strings when it comes to more foreign adventures.  I'm not saying we go completely isolationist-- I just think we should carefully evaluate the national interest benefits vs. the cost involved. 

IMO Qadaffi was not worth spending a billion plus that we didn't have.  I'm equally skeptical of spending any money to help people who most likely hate us as much as the Assad regime does.

How much do you think the US has spent over the last 40 years on defending against Gadafi and/or containing him?  Over the years Gadafi supported ETA, the IRA, the PLO, the Red Brigade.  They blew up the Berlin disco, and the Lockerbie bombing.

Putting an end to all that for a mere billion dollars?  That's one of the most cost-effective uses of military power in a long time.



And I got nes for you spicey - your government is almost certainly giving money to the anti-Assad forces.  There are lots of reports on how the rebels are saying they are getting funds (and even buying guns right from corrupt regime officials), and just aren't saying where the money is coming from.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 03:32:09 PM
Quote from: Barrister on July 19, 2012, 03:09:17 PM
How much do you think the US has spent over the last 40 years on defending against Gadafi and/or containing him?  Over the years Gadafi supported ETA, the IRA, the PLO, the Red Brigade.  They blew up the Berlin disco, and the Lockerbie bombing.

Putting an end to all that for a mere billion dollars?  That's one of the most cost-effective uses of military power in a long time.

You make it sound as if he was continuing to do all that stuff up until the day we intervened.  In truth, he ceased to be a threat to us long ago.

QuoteAnd I got nes for you spicey - your government is almost certainly giving money to the anti-Assad forces.  There are lots of reports on how the rebels are saying they are getting funds (and even buying guns right from corrupt regime officials), and just aren't saying where the money is coming from.

It would figure.  All those oil-rich Ayrab countries over there who actually do have a dog in the fight, and we're the ones bankrolling the rebels.  We are the suckers of the world.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Barrister on July 19, 2012, 03:40:14 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 03:32:09 PM
Quote from: Barrister on July 19, 2012, 03:09:17 PM
How much do you think the US has spent over the last 40 years on defending against Gadafi and/or containing him?  Over the years Gadafi supported ETA, the IRA, the PLO, the Red Brigade.  They blew up the Berlin disco, and the Lockerbie bombing.

Putting an end to all that for a mere billion dollars?  That's one of the most cost-effective uses of military power in a long time.

You make it sound as if he was continuing to do all that stuff up until the day we intervened.  In truth, he ceased to be a threat to us long ago.

It was only maybe 7 years ago he made overtures to the West.  And given his history he could easily have become a foe once again (not to mention what he did to his own people).

Quote
QuoteAnd I got nes for you spicey - your government is almost certainly giving money to the anti-Assad forces.  There are lots of reports on how the rebels are saying they are getting funds (and even buying guns right from corrupt regime officials), and just aren't saying where the money is coming from.

It would figure.  All those oil-rich Ayrab countries over there who actually do have a dog in the fight, and we're the ones bankrolling the rebels.  We are the suckers of the world.

But again - Syria has been a thorn in the US side for decades.  It helps bankroll Hezbollah (and through that may well be responsible in part for the bombing of the Marine barracks in Beruit), was/is a russian ally, is a foe of Israel, and has made life generally miserable in Lebannon (a country whihmight otherwise have good ties to the US).

The US certainly has a dog in the fight.  If you can help get rid of Assad and all it takes if giving a few million to some rebels that's one hell of a bargain.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on July 19, 2012, 04:40:25 PM
Quote from: Tamas on July 19, 2012, 11:38:10 AM
Just think 1849, when the Hungarians officially threw the Habsburgs out

Hungary actually won something for a few minutes and they never stop to crow about it :P

Austria was easily startled but they would soon be back and in greater numbers.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 04:45:38 PM
Quote from: Barrister on July 19, 2012, 03:40:14 PM
It was only maybe 7 years ago he made overtures to the West.  And given his history he could easily have become a foe once again (not to mention what he did to his own people).

He stopped actively antagonizing us before that.

Quote
But again - Syria has been a thorn in the US side for decades.  It helps bankroll Hezbollah (and through that may well be responsible in part for the bombing of the Marine barracks in Beruit), was/is a russian ally, is a foe of Israel, and has made life generally miserable in Lebannon (a country whihmight otherwise have good ties to the US).

The US certainly has a dog in the fight.  If you can help get rid of Assad and all it takes if giving a few million to some rebels that's one hell of a bargain.

Believe me, I have no love for the Assad dynasty and on a certain level I am sorta cheering for the rebels. But whatever replaces the Assad regime is likely to be just as bad for us if not worse.  I'll be happy if I'm wrong on that.

Surprises me that neoconservatism is still alive & kicking, espec. here.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on July 19, 2012, 05:04:55 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 01:48:41 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on July 19, 2012, 01:09:22 PM
Did you think Iraq served our interests?

I think the invasion did.  But I don't think that's relevant to this conversation.

Of course it's relevant.  It's a middle eastern Baathist dictarship.  In 2003 there were only two of those in the world!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on July 19, 2012, 05:07:05 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 02:30:59 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 19, 2012, 02:11:58 PM
No, of course Iraq is not a justification.  Mentioning it, however, is a good way to discredit a position that is inconsistent, and justified by a pretext rather than rational analysis.

I'm not quite sure I follow you.  Whether or not Iraq was justified, the expense of the Iraq war/occupation is IMO more reason to tighten up the purse strings when it comes to more foreign adventures.  I'm not saying we go completely isolationist-- I just think we should carefully evaluate the national interest benefits vs. the cost involved. 

IMO Qadaffi was not worth spending a billion plus that we didn't have.  I'm equally skeptical of spending any money to help people who most likely hate us as much as the Assad regime does.

We didn't have the money then. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on July 19, 2012, 05:11:34 PM
But we're really broke now.  Flat broke. :o
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on July 19, 2012, 05:14:50 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 19, 2012, 05:11:34 PM
But we're really broke now.  Flat broke. :o

Just like we were in the early 1990's.  It's weird.  There was a huge ruckus about the debt in the early 1990's where we just couldn't to afford to spend any more.  Then it sorta went quite for a decade the debt was on longer a big problem even though it was now larger then the one in the 1990's.  Then we apparently were on the brink again around 2008.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on July 19, 2012, 05:31:44 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on July 19, 2012, 05:14:50 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 19, 2012, 05:11:34 PM
But we're really broke now.  Flat broke. :o

Just like we were in the early 1990's.  It's weird.  There was a huge ruckus about the debt in the early 1990's where we just couldn't to afford to spend any more.  Then it sorta went quite for a decade the debt was on longer a big problem even though it was now larger then the one in the 1990's.  Then we apparently were on the brink again around 2008.
Nothing surprising about that.  Both 1992 and 2008 followed the long periods of Republican presidencies.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on July 19, 2012, 05:34:15 PM
Perhaps that's the reason, I dunno. 


I'm not saying we should intervene in Syria.  I am saying that "we don't have the money" while being supportive of the Iraq war is bullshit.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on July 19, 2012, 05:36:29 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on July 19, 2012, 05:34:15 PM
Perhaps that's the reason, I dunno. 


I'm not saying we should intervene in Syria.  I am saying that "we don't have the money" while being supportive of the Iraq war is bullshit.
Are you implying that unsalvageable Republican voters have double standards when it comes to certain issues? :o
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on July 19, 2012, 05:37:40 PM
I'm not saying that, but I sure am thinking it very loudly.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 06:03:00 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on July 19, 2012, 05:07:05 PM
We didn't have the money then. 

We had enough to do it the way I wanted.  But again, Iraq has nothing to do with whether or not we should intervene in Syria.  You guys need to stop trying to play gotcha-- can't we debate the Syria thing on its own merits?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on July 19, 2012, 08:51:44 PM
Almost too late to act now, if the US or NATO decided to do so. Assad is going down. He's fled Damascus from what I read today. There's a full blown civil war. Much of the army is being forced to fight, with guns at their backs, like WW2 Soviet style penal battalions. That kind of thing can't last too long. Rebels have control of a lot of areas. I'm surprised actually because the Syrian military is pretty large.

As for comparing Syria to Libya, I think Libya was much easier. Libya had a much smaller military, it was easier to isolate the government and rebel forces. A much larger nation land wise but smaller population. But heck, given that the Syrian regime is in such trouble it'd probably be a lot easier to intervene now.

One biggie is that Syria has WMDs, and there's a lot of worry where those would wind up, whether there's intervention or not.

If the West intervenes, then would they wind up with some sort of occupation? What ever the case, intervention or not, I have to assume that extremist factions will be filing the governing void in Syria.

The Arab Spring is now ushering in those extremist factions that have been building up their power and support among the people for a long time.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 19, 2012, 09:00:41 PM
I'm more concerned about Hizbollah spreading its influence than any of the local tribal yahoos, despite Syria's penchant for tribalism.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on July 19, 2012, 09:21:29 PM
Rebels have taken all border crossings into Iraq!

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/20/world/middleeast/syria-border-with-iraq.html?_r=2&smid=tw-nytimes&seid=auto
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on July 19, 2012, 09:25:48 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 06:03:00 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on July 19, 2012, 05:07:05 PM
We didn't have the money then. 

We had enough to do it the way I wanted.  But again, Iraq has nothing to do with whether or not we should intervene in Syria.  You guys need to stop trying to play gotcha-- can't we debate the Syria thing on its own merits?

Iraq serves to illustrate that claiming opposition to interaction on monetary is complete bullshit.  We had a deficit then, we have deficit now.  Didn't you oppose the Kosovo thingy as well.  I seem to recall you talking about that as your short "anti-war" phase.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on July 19, 2012, 09:38:42 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 04:45:38 PM
Believe me, I have no love for the Assad dynasty and on a certain level I am sorta cheering for the rebels. But whatever replaces the Assad regime is likely to be just as bad for us if not worse.  I'll be happy if I'm wrong on that.
You say this and earlier talked about the rebels hating you anyway.  I think this gets Syria wrong.

The problem with the Assad regime isn't that they hate Western powers, though they do; the problem with the Assad regime is their relationships with Iran, Hezbullah and, until recently, Hamas.  They projected Iranian influence far more widely in the Middle East.  They are a destabilising influence in the Levant.  In addition they provide a base for the Russians (rumours are that if Assad fails the Russians will offer the Greeks free money for a Med port).  The benefit from their fall isn't that an anti-American regime falls but that Iran's forward base in the Arab world, Hezbullah's hinterland and Russia's Med port closes down.

Given that Iran and Hezbullah have really lashed themselves to the regime it's almost impossible to see any rebels rebuilding those relationships.  So even if they hate you just as much it would almost certainly be better.  The worst case scenario (assuming Syria doesn't totally collapse) is an isolated nut like 90s Iraq or Libya.

Having said that the US would probably get far more popular support if they helped in the overthrow.  I think even the moral support so far will be noticed - unlike Libyans, I believe the Syrians have never asked for intervention as opposed to money and diplomatic backing.  Certainly in Libya the West's more popular because of intervention (similarly I saw an interview with the Tunisian PM who said he thought this was a new opportunity for US-Arab relations and that he'd never imagined the US would support Tunisia's revolution).  Even if the US doesn't intervene, if there's a Syrian state to negotiate with, I think the collapse of Assad presents a strategic opportunity that it would be mad to miss to influence and help Syria after the conflict.

Despite all of that, I agree with you that we shouldn't intervene.  I think it's too costly, too risky and quite possibly counter-productive.  In my view our goal should be to try and isolate the conflict as much as possible, to provide moral support (especially with the rebels on a roll) and to help in the aftermath.

QuoteOf course it's relevant.  It's a middle eastern Baathist dictarship.  In 2003 there were only two of those in the world!
I'm with derspiess.  I don't see the relevance at all, it look like you're just trying to make a political point.

QuoteThe Arab Spring is now ushering in those extremist factions that have been building up their power and support among the people for a long time.
Where has this happened?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on July 19, 2012, 09:41:50 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on July 19, 2012, 09:25:48 PM
Iraq serves to illustrate that claiming opposition to interaction on monetary is complete bullshit.  We had a deficit then, we have deficit now.  Didn't you oppose the Kosovo thingy as well.  I seem to recall you talking about that as your short "anti-war" phase.
Your deficit's far larger, your debt's far higher, the world economy's more choppy.  Those costs should be borne in mind when considering whether intervening's in your interest or not. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on July 19, 2012, 09:44:13 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on July 19, 2012, 09:41:50 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on July 19, 2012, 09:25:48 PM
Iraq serves to illustrate that claiming opposition to interaction on monetary is complete bullshit.  We had a deficit then, we have deficit now.  Didn't you oppose the Kosovo thingy as well.  I seem to recall you talking about that as your short "anti-war" phase.
Your deficit's far larger, your debt's far higher, the world economy's more choppy.  Those costs should be borne in mind when considering whether intervening's in your interest or not.

Yeah, yeah.  We heard this in the 1990's as well.  It only happens when a Democrat is President.  Suddenly we become hawkish on the debt and defict.  Suddenly the US is to arrogant in it's foreign policy, etc.  It's bullshit.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on July 19, 2012, 09:55:13 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on July 19, 2012, 09:44:13 PM
Yeah, yeah.  We heard this in the 1990's as well.  It only happens when a Democrat is President.  Suddenly we become hawkish on the debt and defict.  Suddenly the US is to arrogant in it's foreign policy, etc.  It's bullshit.
Hawkishness on debt and deficit is around because, from my understanding, they're as high as they've been in peacetime.  Now I think that's justified and understandable given the financial crisis, and that you've got some fiscal flexibility.  The deficit and debt are exceptionally large because of the circumstances but that's why they need to be brought down in the medium term.  To just brush it aside and say it's not a consideration is nonsense. 

I don't think DS is saying the US is too arrogant, if anything the opposite.

Frankly I think you're the one making partisan, bullshit points.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on July 19, 2012, 10:04:18 PM
Well, we aren't actually in peace time.  The US is still fighting in Afghanistan.  My point is I've seen this routine before. It was the highest it had ever been in peacetime in 1994 as well.  The debt was even higher in 2003.  My points very well be partisan, but they aren't bullshit.  The debt and deficit talk only comes up when certain people are in the White House.  It's simply an excuse.  There are good reason not to intervene in Syria, but if you were onboard in 2003 debt shouldn't be one of them.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on July 19, 2012, 10:14:24 PM
You're wrong on the debt.  It wasn't higher in 2003.

My point is simply that things change.  I think one can easily look at a deficit of 2-3% with a national debt of 70% and a benign global economic situation and say that the cost of a war isn't so high that it should outweigh potential benefits.  The same person can equally easily look at a deficit of 8-9%, with a national debt over 100% and a very shaky global economic situation and decide the cost's too high. 

That's assuming the same Baathist dictatorship's involved.  I think that matters too, as does the context.

You're not making a point so much as just reading the worst into anyone's motives, which is what makes it so partisan.  The point itself is bullshit because you're saying if you're willing to ignore the deficit in a conflict when your party's in the White House then you have to be willing to ignore it forever regardless of the circumstances.  That is obvious nonsense.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on July 19, 2012, 11:15:19 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on July 19, 2012, 10:14:24 PM
You're wrong on the debt.  It wasn't higher in 2003.

My point is simply that things change.  I think one can easily look at a deficit of 2-3% with a national debt of 70% and a benign global economic situation and say that the cost of a war isn't so high that it should outweigh potential benefits.  The same person can equally easily look at a deficit of 8-9%, with a national debt over 100% and a very shaky global economic situation and decide the cost's too high. 

That's assuming the same Baathist dictatorship's involved.  I think that matters too, as does the context.

You're not making a point so much as just reading the worst into anyone's motives, which is what makes it so partisan.  The point itself is bullshit because you're saying if you're willing to ignore the deficit in a conflict when your party's in the White House then you have to be willing to ignore it forever regardless of the circumstances.  That is obvious nonsense.

It wasn't higher in 2003 then what?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on July 20, 2012, 01:51:28 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on July 19, 2012, 09:38:42 PM- unlike Libyans, I believe the Syrians have never asked for intervention as opposed to money and diplomatic backing. 

http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/15/world/meast/syria-defector-interview/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/15/world/meast/syria-defector-interview/index.html)

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on July 20, 2012, 02:03:29 AM
Quote from: citizen k on July 20, 2012, 01:51:28 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on July 19, 2012, 09:38:42 PM- unlike Libyans, I believe the Syrians have never asked for intervention as opposed to money and diplomatic backing. 

http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/15/world/meast/syria-defector-interview/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/15/world/meast/syria-defector-interview/index.html)

He said "Syrians" in the plural. That's just one Syrian.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on July 20, 2012, 05:33:01 AM
Quote from: Syt on July 20, 2012, 02:03:29 AM
Quote from: citizen k on July 20, 2012, 01:51:28 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on July 19, 2012, 09:38:42 PM- unlike Libyans, I believe the Syrians have never asked for intervention as opposed to money and diplomatic backing. 

http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/15/world/meast/syria-defector-interview/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/15/world/meast/syria-defector-interview/index.html)

He said "Syrians" in the plural. That's just one Syrian.

I'm pretty sure the sentiment of "if tons of high explosive fell on Assad's house we wouldn't mind it too much..." is almost universal among the syrian opposition.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on July 20, 2012, 06:00:28 AM
Fair enough. But the Libyans needed assistance. In the current situation, I don't think the Syrians want or need a Western deus ex machina to steal their revolutionary success.

That could change of course.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Minsky Moment on July 20, 2012, 09:08:03 AM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 04:45:38 PM
Believe me, I have no love for the Assad dynasty and on a certain level I am sorta cheering for the rebels. But whatever replaces the Assad regime is likely to be just as bad for us if not worse.  I'll be happy if I'm wrong on that.

The jury is still way out, but the preliminary signs from Libya are encouraging.  And Libya is also a decent model for intervention on the relative cheap.

IMO it would be very difficult to be worse than the Assad regime; the bar is set very high for execrableness

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on July 20, 2012, 09:10:22 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on July 19, 2012, 09:38:42 PM
You say this and earlier talked about the rebels hating you anyway.  I think this gets Syria wrong.

The problem with the Assad regime isn't that they hate Western powers, though they do; the problem with the Assad regime is their relationships with Iran, Hezbullah and, until recently, Hamas.  They projected Iranian influence far more widely in the Middle East.  They are a destabilising influence in the Levant.  In addition they provide a base for the Russians (rumours are that if Assad fails the Russians will offer the Greeks free money for a Med port).  The benefit from their fall isn't that an anti-American regime falls but that Iran's forward base in the Arab world, Hezbullah's hinterland and Russia's Med port closes down.

Given that Iran and Hezbullah have really lashed themselves to the regime it's almost impossible to see any rebels rebuilding those relationships.  So even if they hate you just as much it would almost certainly be better.  The worst case scenario (assuming Syria doesn't totally collapse) is an isolated nut like 90s Iraq or Libya.

Having said that the US would probably get far more popular support if they helped in the overthrow.  I think even the moral support so far will be noticed - unlike Libyans, I believe the Syrians have never asked for intervention as opposed to money and diplomatic backing.  Certainly in Libya the West's more popular because of intervention (similarly I saw an interview with the Tunisian PM who said he thought this was a new opportunity for US-Arab relations and that he'd never imagined the US would support Tunisia's revolution).  Even if the US doesn't intervene, if there's a Syrian state to negotiate with, I think the collapse of Assad presents a strategic opportunity that it would be mad to miss to influence and help Syria after the conflict.

Despite all of that, I agree with you that we shouldn't intervene.  I think it's too costly, too risky and quite possibly counter-productive.  In my view our goal should be to try and isolate the conflict as much as possible, to provide moral support (especially with the rebels on a roll) and to help in the aftermath.

Good points.  I will have to give this some thought.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on July 20, 2012, 09:14:51 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on July 20, 2012, 09:08:03 AM
Quote from: derspiess on July 19, 2012, 04:45:38 PM
Believe me, I have no love for the Assad dynasty and on a certain level I am sorta cheering for the rebels. But whatever replaces the Assad regime is likely to be just as bad for us if not worse.  I'll be happy if I'm wrong on that.

The jury is still way out, but the preliminary signs from Libya are encouraging.  And Libya is also a decent model for intervention on the relative cheap.

IMO it would be very difficult to be worse than the Assad regime; the bar is set very high for execrableness

The new dictator's wife could easily be less hot than the current one.  :hmm:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Minsky Moment on July 20, 2012, 09:17:39 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on July 20, 2012, 06:00:28 AM
I don't think the Syrians want or need a Western deus ex machina to steal their revolutionary success.

Oh I doubt very much doubt that the Syrians would mind getting a little help from whomever.  The Libyan resistance fighters didn't lose any face from the Western intervention; it was still Libyans fighting and taking the ground; the western help just helped even the playing field against a regime that controlled heavy armor/air/etc.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on July 20, 2012, 09:33:13 AM
Quote from: Malthus on July 20, 2012, 09:14:51 AM
The new dictator's wife could easily be less hot than the current one.  :hmm:

I think that's a pretty safe bet.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Barrister on July 20, 2012, 09:33:59 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on July 20, 2012, 06:00:28 AM
Fair enough. But the Libyans needed assistance. In the current situation, I don't think the Syrians want or need a Western deus ex machina to steal their revolutionary success.

That could change of course.

I think the Syrians could use assistance ju8st as much as the Libyans did.  Libya did not feel like there was a deus ex machina - they are still justifiably very proud of winning their own revolution.

And in any event, it certainly appears that the west is assisting in Syria whether or not air power is used.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on July 20, 2012, 10:12:19 PM
Haunting 8 minute Apocalypse Now in Homs walking tour:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSiwZR9Tcc4 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSiwZR9Tcc4)




Quote from: DGuller on July 17, 2012, 11:34:09 AM
Any updates on how the Syrian rebels view Allah?

You'll love this one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnQWc2-iXZI&feature=plcp (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnQWc2-iXZI&feature=plcp)


Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on July 20, 2012, 10:41:16 PM
He must think Allah is responsible for every breath he takes, and thus makes sure to praise him for that every time.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on July 20, 2012, 11:33:11 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 20, 2012, 10:41:16 PM
He must think Allah is responsible for every breath he takes, and thus makes sure to praise him for that every time.

Every breath you take, every move you make, Allah's watching you.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on July 21, 2012, 04:55:38 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 20, 2012, 10:41:16 PM
He must think Allah is responsible for every breath he takes, and thus makes sure to praise him for that every time.

I think he caught wind of how much that annoys us here at Languish, and is doing it just to piss us off.  REAL MATURE, SYRIAN REBEL DUDE.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on July 21, 2012, 05:02:46 PM
Quote from: citizen k on July 20, 2012, 10:12:19 PM
Haunting 8 minute Apocalypse Now in Homs walking tour:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSiwZR9Tcc4 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSiwZR9Tcc4)



Stuff like this really kills the effect, my first reaction, the one I usually have when I go to an arab city (outside the oil fueled gulf) is fucking arabs, can't keep the street clean and can't maintain their buildings. If not for the bullet holes and burned out cars my only reaction there would have been where are all the people and fucking arabs, can't keep the street clean.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on July 22, 2012, 09:04:21 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on July 20, 2012, 09:17:39 AMOh I doubt very much doubt that the Syrians would mind getting a little help from whomever.  The Libyan resistance fighters didn't lose any face from the Western intervention; it was still Libyans fighting and taking the ground; the western help just helped even the playing field against a regime that controlled heavy armor/air/etc.
But I think they're very different situations.  Libya's revolution looked to be on the edge of total collapse without Western support (in part I think this was shaped by Libya's geography as much as anything).  By contrast, though this could change, the Syrian rebels have held on for over a year and have now managed to strike the heart of the regime.  From what I understand they've also seized all major border crossings.  Given all of their relative success and that the regime looks at its weakest I think Western intervention would now be a deus ex machina.

That situation could change and the regime could manage to reassert some form of control, or could try to hold out in the Alawite heartland.

Since the assassinations Nasrallah's held a rally and sent his condolences to the victims - which shows just how far Hezbullah are going to support this regime.  The Druze (and Christians) in Syria have always been divided on the revolution, some major families have supported the regime while others have supported the revolution.  Walid Jumblatt who is, if nothing else, a relatively reliable weather vane has moved from quiet support for the revolution to calling for all Druze and Alawite's to join the revolt.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 23, 2012, 07:06:54 PM
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-07-23/Syria-violence-rebels/56425402/1


QuoteSyria says it will use chemical weapons if attacked

ONLY if attacked by a third party, apparently. Or, you know, if they get desperate enough.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on July 24, 2012, 12:54:21 AM
Looks like Shelf was right, and I was wrong.  The government there seems to be in serious trouble.  I thought they were going to be able to handle this.  Apparently not.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 24, 2012, 06:31:37 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on July 24, 2012, 12:54:21 AM
Looks like Shelf was right

As was Yi.

Go ahead, it won't kill you. :lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 24, 2012, 06:35:24 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 24, 2012, 06:31:37 AM
Go ahead, it won't kill you. :lol:

It is, however, a pain worse than death.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on July 24, 2012, 06:57:54 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on July 23, 2012, 07:06:54 PM
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-07-23/Syria-violence-rebels/56425402/1


QuoteSyria says it will use chemical weapons if attacked

ONLY if attacked by a third party, apparently. Or, you know, if they get desperate enough.
Don't they claim lots of rebels are actually foreign fighters?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on July 24, 2012, 10:06:38 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 24, 2012, 06:31:37 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on July 24, 2012, 12:54:21 AM
Looks like Shelf was right

As was Yi.

Go ahead, it won't kill you. :lol:

Sure.  Yi was right.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on July 24, 2012, 12:01:46 PM
I am reading that the Syrian airforce has been flying missions against the rebels. Looks like there WAS one more step in the escalation process.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on July 25, 2012, 06:35:39 AM
Heavy fighting going down in Damascus and Aleppo.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/07/25/12942692-total-warfare-syrias-assad-sends-armored-column-to-aleppo?lite

QuoteSyria sent thousands of troops surging toward Aleppo in the early hours of Wednesday, where its forces have been pounding rebel fighters from the air, engulfing the country's largest city in total warfare to put down a revolt.

"[President Bashar] Assad is fighting hard here because he has already lost control of nearly all the towns around Aleppo," NBC News' chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel said from the city's outskirts on Tuesday.

Recent days have seen Syria's 16-month-old uprising transformed from an insurgency in remote provinces into a battle for control of the two main cities, Aleppo and the slightly smaller capital, Damascus, where fighting exploded last week.

President Bashar Assad's forces have launched massive counter assaults in both cities. They appear to have beaten rebels back from neighborhoods in the capital and are turning toward Aleppo, a commercial hub in the north.

Syrian forces fired artillery and rocket barrages early on Wednesday at the northern Damascus suburb of al-Tel in an attempt to seize the town from rebels, causing mass panic and forcing hundreds of families to flee the area, residents and opposition activists said.

The 216th mechanized battalion headquartered near Tel started bombarding the town of about 100,000 people at 3:15 a.m. (8:15 p.m. ET Tuesday) and initial reports indicated residential apartment blocks were being hit, they said.

"Military helicopters are flying now over the town. People were awakened by the sound of explosions and are running away," Rafe Alam, one of the activists, said by phone from a hill overlooking Tel. "Electricity and telephones have been cut off."

Jets firing?
Some residents said they believed the planes had dropped bombs, but others said booming sounds could have been caused by supersonic jets breaking the sound barrier. A correspondent for Britain's BBC television also said the jets had fired on parts of the city.

Assad's forces have occasionally launched airstrikes from fixed-wing jets on other cities during the uprising, but tend to rely on helicopters for airstrikes in urban areas.

Opposition activists said thousands of troops had withdrawn with their tanks and armored vehicles from the strategic Jabal al-Zawiya highlands in Idlib province near the Turkish border and were headed toward Aleppo.

Rebels attacked the rear of the troops withdrawing from the region at the villages of Orom al-Joz and Rami near the main Aleppo-Latakia road and at the village of al-Bara west of the Aleppo-Damascus highway, activist Abdelrahman Bakran said from the area.

A first? Helicopter gunships bombard Syrian capital
In Aleppo, helicopters swirled overhead firing missiles throughout Tuesday, residents said. Rebels were battling government forces by the gates of the historic old city. Troops fired mortars and shells at rebels armed with rifles and machine guns.

"I heard at least 20 rockets fired, I think from helicopters, and also a lot of machine-gun fire," a resident near one of the areas being shelled, who asked to be identified only by his first name Omar, said by telephone.

"Almost everyone has fled in panic, even my family. I have stayed to try to stop the looters; we hear they often come after an area is shelled."

General speaks
Meanwhile, a Syrian former Brigadier-General spoke for the first time since defecting earlier in July.

In a statement broadcast Arabic news channel Al Arabiya, Manaf Tlas called on Syrians to unite.

"I speak to you as a defected member of the Syrian army, who refuses criminal violence ... I speak to you as one of the sons of Syria," Tlas said.  He was believed to be speaking from Paris where he has family.

"Honorable Syrian army officers do not accept the criminal acts in Syria ... Allow me to serve Syria after [President Bashar] al-Assad's era." he said.

Tlas' defection was a significant blow to Assad and his government. While Tlas is from Syria's majority Sunni community -- Assad and much of his inner circle are Alawite, an offshoot of Shiite Islam -- he was reportedly part of the president's inner circle for many years.
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"We must all unite to serve Syria and promote stability in the country, rebuilding a free and democratic Syria," Al Arabiya quoted Tlas as saying.

"Allow me to call on a united Syria," he added.

Tlas also said he did not blame those troops who have not defected, adding that "whatever mistakes made by some members of the Syrian Arab Army ... those honorable troops who have not partaken in the killing ... are the extension of the (rebel) Free Syrian Army."

Chemical weapons safe?
Also on Wednesday, Moscow said it had received "firm assurances" from Damascus that its Syrian chemical arsenal is "fully safeguarded," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov told the state-owned Itar-Tass news agency.

"We have received firm assurances from Damascus that the security of this arsenal is fully safeguarded," Gatilov told the agency in an interview.

Syrian Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi acknowledged on Monday that the country had chemical weapons, and Western countries and Israel have expressed fears chemical weapons could fall into the hands of militant groups as Assad's authority erodes.

Israel, which has publicly discussed military action to keep Syrian chemical arms or missiles out the hands of Assad's Lebanese militant allies Hezbollah, said there was no sign any such diversion had occurred.

"At the moment, the entire non-conventional weapons system is under the full control of the regime," a senior Israeli defense official, Amos Gilad, told Israel Radio. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on July 25, 2012, 08:01:27 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on July 24, 2012, 06:57:54 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on July 23, 2012, 07:06:54 PM
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-07-23/Syria-violence-rebels/56425402/1


QuoteSyria says it will use chemical weapons if attacked

ONLY if attacked by a third party, apparently. Or, you know, if they get desperate enough.
Don't they claim lots of rebels are actually foreign fighters?

Yeah, I'm seeing reports of that. No surprise but no real hard info. Seems the US and others talking about getting assistance in, if they decide to do so, don't really know who is who among the Rebels. You'd think after over a year of fighting we'd have an idea of all that, their leaders and such.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Minsky Moment on July 26, 2012, 03:05:18 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on July 22, 2012, 09:04:21 AM
[But I think they're very different situations.  Libya's revolution looked to be on the edge of total collapse without Western support (in part I think this was shaped by Libya's geography as much as anything).  By contrast, though this could change, the Syrian rebels have held on for over a year and have now managed to strike the heart of the regime.  From what I understand they've also seized all major border crossings.  Given all of their relative success and that the regime looks at its weakest I think Western intervention would now be a deus ex machina.

The notion the the Syrian revolt is much stronger than the Libyan revolt flies in the fact of the fact that the Syrian one has been going for twice as long and yet the rebels are still very disorganized and control very little in actual ground.  It is true that Libyan rebels were in danger of being very badly bloodied a few times, but that is only because very early on they matured beyond where the Syrians are now and were able to deploy large pseudo-conventional formations into the field.  The syrian rebels can't do that (one of the reasons being lack of heavy weapons and vulnerability to air strike).

The Syrian rebels are getting some considerable aid and assistance, mostly from the Gulf.  Exactly what conditionality is attached to that assistance is obscure, but I am not reasssured by the obscurity,.  There is grumbling between rival rebel groupings about competing to secure access to Gulf aid.  Of course adding an alternative channel would not necessarily improve matters . . .
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 26, 2012, 05:21:59 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on July 26, 2012, 03:05:18 PM
The Syrian rebels are getting some considerable aid and assistance, mostly from the Gulf.  Exactly what conditionality is attached to that assistance is obscure, but I am not reasssured by the obscurity,.  There is grumbling between rival rebel groupings about competing to secure access to Gulf aid.  Of course adding an alternative channel would not necessarily improve matters . . .

Iran continuing to ship arms to the Syrian government, assisting them with selling their oil to China, and allowing both Hezbollah forces and Quds boots on the ground is not helping matters any.

NATO needs to start blockading and bombing shit, regardless of the status of the rebels.  It doesn't have to be in coordination with the rebels themselves--since that would be impossible at this time anyway--but these external actors need to be substantially minimized. Iran is making a mockery of the sanctions, as usual.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on July 26, 2012, 07:29:02 PM
Looks like the Syrians are gearing up to lay the hammer down in Aleppo.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/07/26/12963787-us-official-syrian-regime-seems-to-be-readying-for-massacre?lite
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on July 26, 2012, 10:33:07 PM


Quote"The regime tried to send its army to Aleppo, but less than a third managed to reach it. Yesterday alone we destroyed more than 30 armored vehicles,"

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_162-57481075/syrian-rebel-we-will-end-assads-enslavement (http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_162-57481075/syrian-rebel-we-will-end-assads-enslavement/?tag=cbsnewsSectionContent.0)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on July 26, 2012, 11:05:24 PM
Disturbing video of the "new normal" in Rastan, especially four minutes into it:

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2012/07/26/magnay-syria-marcel-rastan-documentary.cnn?iref=videosearch (http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2012/07/26/magnay-syria-marcel-rastan-documentary.cnn?iref=videosearch)


Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 26, 2012, 11:10:05 PM
Quote from: citizen k on July 26, 2012, 11:05:24 PM
Disturbing video of the "new normal" in Rastan, especially four minutes into it:

Yeah, it's a war zone.

You know what's disturbing?  Watching those yahoos making IEDs from old shells.  Talk about a Pucker Factor of 10.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on July 26, 2012, 11:14:12 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on July 26, 2012, 11:10:05 PM
Quote from: citizen k on July 26, 2012, 11:05:24 PM
Disturbing video of the "new normal" in Rastan, especially four minutes into it:

Yeah, it's a war zone.

And the next generation is being radicalized.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on July 26, 2012, 11:16:00 PM
Quote from: citizen k on July 26, 2012, 10:33:07 PM


Quote"The regime tried to send its army to Aleppo, but less than a third managed to reach it. Yesterday alone we destroyed more than 30 armored vehicles,"


(http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_162-57481075/syrian-rebel-we-will-end-assads-enslavement%5B/url)
Messed up the link, here's the right one

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_162-57481075/syrian-rebel-we-will-end-assads-enslavement

30 armored vehicles is a big claim. They had some great video, but I'd like to see more proof.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 26, 2012, 11:17:10 PM
Quote from: citizen k on July 26, 2012, 11:14:12 PM
And the next generation is being radicalized.

Meh, they seemed to have been having fun.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on July 27, 2012, 01:41:50 PM
Interesting sidepoint tIdaho, an Iranian paper did a piece on the Assad family. The main picture was Hafez with the Shah. May be nothing, could be a straw in the wind.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on July 29, 2012, 08:27:19 PM
Looks like some rebels have an artillery battery:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6aKN0z1-y0 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6aKN0z1-y0)



Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on July 29, 2012, 08:37:37 PM
Quote from: citizen k on July 26, 2012, 11:14:12 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on July 26, 2012, 11:10:05 PM
Quote from: citizen k on July 26, 2012, 11:05:24 PM
Disturbing video of the "new normal" in Rastan, especially four minutes into it:

Yeah, it's a war zone.

And the next generation is being radicalized.

What radicalized this generation?  Or the one previous?  Or the one before that?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on July 30, 2012, 02:25:39 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on July 29, 2012, 08:37:37 PM
Quote from: citizen k on July 26, 2012, 11:14:12 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on July 26, 2012, 11:10:05 PM
Quote from: citizen k on July 26, 2012, 11:05:24 PM
Disturbing video of the "new normal" in Rastan, especially four minutes into it:

Yeah, it's a war zone.

And the next generation is being radicalized.

What radicalized this generation?  Or the one previous?  Or the one before that?

yeah lol, this reminds me of all the "omg this generation is detached and cold and bad and whatever omg" stuff being said (in general, not the arabs). I mean, hey, the previous few generations fought two world wars and happily engaged in various ethnic cleansing projects throughout the 20th century. Ain't exactly a proud pedigree to put on your flag.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on July 30, 2012, 02:28:25 AM
Quote from: Tamas on July 30, 2012, 02:25:39 AM
I mean, hey, the previous few generations fought two world wars and happily engaged in various ethnic cleansing projects throughout the 20th century. Ain't exactly a proud pedigree to put on your flag.

That's because those generations still cared and believed in something. :P
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on August 01, 2012, 11:07:19 PM
Quote
Video from Aleppo, Syria, draws condemnation of rebels
By Patrick J. McDonnell and Alexandra Sandels

August 1, 2012, 4:31 p.m.

BEIRUT (LA Times)— Syrian President Bashar Assad on Wednesday exhorted his military to maintain "continued preparedness," as human rights groups condemned an apparent rebel execution of Assad loyalists in the embattled northern city of Aleppo.

Assad lauded his troops' role in "confronting the criminal terrorist gangs," a reference to the rebels fighting across a wide swath of the country, in a statement marking the anniversary of the founding of the army, state media reported.

Meanwhile, video surfaced online appearing to show the execution of members of a loyalist clan in an Aleppo neighborhood.

In the video, apparent rebels lead a group of prisoners identified as pro-government paramilitary fighters known as shabiha into a courtyard. Several prisoners look bloodied and dazed. One is wearing only boxer shorts. The fighters shout "God is great!" as the prisoners are shoved against a wall. The fighters step back and open fire with their AK-47 rifles for more than 30 seconds, apparently squeezing off hundreds of rounds in a frenzy of shooting and shouting.

Afterward, the camera zooms in on what appears to be four bloodied bodies. Some reports identified the execution site as a school in Aleppo.

The opposition has said that those targeted were members of the Berri clan, a family with close ties to the government. Among those reportedly killed was the clan leader, Zeno Berri. Rebels accused him and others of committing atrocities against civilians. But the executions drew condemnation of the rebel forces. Several opposition groups also publicly denounced the killings.

"Such reprisals are never justified," Nadim Houry of Human Rights Watch said on Twitter.

Some reports indicated that the targeted clan has thousands of followers who could seek revenge, adding to the hostilities in Aleppo.

Rights monitors have documented extrajudicial killings and other abuses by both sides during the Syrian uprising.

Syria's military has suffered heavy losses and numerous defections that have strained its capabilities. A United Nations-commissioned report in June concluded that "regular forces are exhibiting a certain fatigue."

Still, the military retains a substantial edge in training and weaponry compared with the various rebel militias, which are mostly lightly armed, contain many untrained civilians and have no central command.

Government troops and rebels are fighting for control of Aleppo, Syria's most populous city, in what could be a decisive battle in the almost 17-month uprising against Assad's rule.

The U.N. confirmed Wednesday that the military had deployed jets firing rockets and machine guns at rebel positions in Aleppo. The opposition says the government has also used helicopter gunships and artillery to pound rebel-held districts. Rebel commanders say they hope that using guerrilla-style tactics in a dense urban landscape will help neutralize the army's advantage in firepower.

The fight for Aleppo has been brutal and bloody, featuring street fighting for control of neighborhoods and strategic installations such as police stations. Both sides appear to be preparing for a battle that could last weeks.

Tens of thousands of Aleppo residents have fled the city, but aid groups say many people remain trapped. Thousands are said to be living in schools, mosques and parks and at other sites. Aid groups worry that a humanitarian disaster will arise if the combat and shelling spread to other districts of the sprawling city, long Syria's commercial hub.

In Washington, U.S. officials disparaged Assad for keeping his whereabouts unknown since a bombing killed four of his top aides July 18.

"His recent remarks show him for the coward that he is," said Jay Carney, White House press secretary. "He hides out of sight, encouraging the heavily armed Syria military to continue slaughtering civilians in his name."

U.S. officials confirmed that they had increased their aid allocation to the rebels to $25 million, from $15 million. They said the money was for nonlethal aid, notably encrypted radios to help the insurgents remain in touch in the field. U.S. officials say they have set aside $64 million for humanitarian relief in Syria.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARV5LrK9S-k&bpctr=1343879620 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARV5LrK9S-k&bpctr=1343879620)



Quote
Obama authorized secret support for Syrian rebels
By Mark Hosenball

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama has signed a secret order authorizing U.S. support for rebels seeking to depose Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his government, sources familiar with the matter said.

Obama's order, approved earlier this year and known as an intelligence "finding," broadly permits the CIA and other U.S. agencies to provide support that could help the rebels oust Assad.

This and other developments signal a shift toward growing, albeit still circumscribed, support for Assad's armed opponents - a shift that intensified following last month's failure of the U.N. Security Council to agree on tougher sanctions against the Damascus government.

The White House is for now apparently stopping short of giving the rebels lethal weapons, even as some U.S. allies do just that.

But U.S. and European officials have said that there have been noticeable improvements in the coherence and effectiveness of Syrian rebel groups in the past few weeks. That represents a significant change in assessments of the rebels by Western officials, who previously characterized Assad's opponents as a disorganized, almost chaotic, rabble.

Precisely when Obama signed the secret intelligence authorization, an action not previously reported, could not be determined.

The full extent of clandestine support that agencies like the CIA might be providing also is unclear.

White House spokesman Tommy Vietor declined comment.

'NERVE CENTER'

A U.S. government source acknowledged that under provisions of the presidential finding, the United States was collaborating with a secret command center operated by Turkey and its allies.

Last week, Reuters reported that, along with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Turkey had established a secret base near the Syrian border to help direct vital military and communications support to Assad's opponents.

This "nerve center" is in Adana, a city in southern Turkey about 60 miles from the Syrian border, which is also home to Incirlik, a U.S. air base where U.S. military and intelligence agencies maintain a substantial presence.

Turkey's moderate Islamist government has been demanding Assad's departure with growing vehemence. Turkish authorities are said by current and former U.S. government officials to be increasingly involved in providing Syrian rebels with training and possibly equipment.

European government sources said wealthy families in Saudi Arabia and Qatar were providing significant financing to the rebels. Senior officials of the Saudi and Qatari governments have publicly called for Assad's departure.

On Tuesday, NBC News reported that the Free Syrian Army had obtained nearly two dozen surface-to-air missiles, weapons that could be used against Assad's helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft. Syrian government armed forces have employed such air power more extensively in recent days.

NBC said the shoulder-fired missiles, also known as MANPADs, had been delivered to the rebels via Turkey.


On Wednesday, however, Bassam al-Dada, a political adviser to the Free Syrian Army, denied the NBC report, telling the Arabic-language TV network Al-Arabiya that the group had "not obtained any such weapons at all." U.S. government sources said they could not confirm the MANPADs deliveries, but could not rule them out either.

Current and former U.S. and European officials previously said that weapons supplies, which were being organized and financed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, were largely limited to guns and a limited number of anti-tank weapons, such as bazookas.

Indications are that U.S. agencies have not been involved in providing weapons to Assad's opponents. In order to do so, Obama would have to approve a supplement, known as a "memorandum of notification, to his initial broad intelligence finding.

Further such memoranda would have to be signed by Obama to authorize other specific clandestine operations to support Syrian rebels.

Reuters first reported last week that the White House had crafted a directive authorizing greater U.S. covert assistance to Syrian rebels. It was unclear at that time whether Obama had signed it.

OVERT SUPPORT

Separately from the president's secret order, the Obama administration has stated publicly that it is providing some backing for Assad's opponents.

The State Department said on Wednesday the U.S. government had set aside a total of $25 million for "non-lethal" assistance to the Syrian opposition. A U.S. official said that was mostly for communications equipment, including encrypted radios.

The State Department also says the United States has set aside $64 million in humanitarian assistance for the Syrian people, including contributions to the World Food Program, the International Committee of the Red Cross and other aid agencies.

Also on Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury confirmed it had granted authorization to the Syrian Support Group, Washington representative of one of the most active rebel factions, the Free Syrian Army, to conduct financial transactions on the rebel group's behalf. The authorization was first reported on Friday by Al-Monitor, a Middle East news and commentary website.

Last year, when rebels began organizing themselves to challenge the rule of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, Obama also signed an initial "finding" broadly authorizing secret U.S. backing for them. But the president moved cautiously in authorizing specific measures to support them.

Some U.S. lawmakers, such as Republican Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham, have criticized Obama for moving too slowly to assist the rebels and have suggested the U.S. government become directly involved in arming Assad's opponents.

Other lawmakers have suggested caution, saying too little is known about the many rebel groups.

Recent news reports from the region have suggested that the influence and numbers of Islamist militants, some of them connected to al Qaeda or its affiliates, have been growing among Assad's opponents.

U.S. and European officials say that, so far, intelligence agencies do not believe the militants' role in the anti-Assad opposition is dominant.

While U.S. and allied government experts believe that the Syrian rebels have been making some progress against Assad's forces lately, most believe the conflict is nowhere near resolution, and could go on for years.






Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on August 01, 2012, 11:38:49 PM
Quote from: citizen k on August 01, 2012, 11:07:19 PM
Quote
Video from Aleppo, Syria, draws condemnation of rebels
By Patrick J. McDonnell and Alexandra Sandels

August 1, 2012, 4:31 p.m.

BEIRUT (LA Times)— Syrian President Bashar Assad on Wednesday exhorted his military to maintain "continued preparedness," as human rights groups condemned an apparent rebel execution of Assad loyalists in the embattled northern city of Aleppo.

Assad lauded his troops' role in "confronting the criminal terrorist gangs," a reference to the rebels fighting across a wide swath of the country, in a statement marking the anniversary of the founding of the army, state media reported.

Meanwhile, video surfaced online appearing to show the execution of members of a loyalist clan in an Aleppo neighborhood.

In the video, apparent rebels lead a group of prisoners identified as pro-government paramilitary fighters known as shabiha into a courtyard. Several prisoners look bloodied and dazed. One is wearing only boxer shorts. The fighters shout "God is great!" as the prisoners are shoved against a wall. The fighters step back and open fire with their AK-47 rifles for more than 30 seconds, apparently squeezing off hundreds of rounds in a frenzy of shooting and shouting.

Afterward, the camera zooms in on what appears to be four bloodied bodies. Some reports identified the execution site as a school in Aleppo.

The opposition has said that those targeted were members of the Berri clan, a family with close ties to the government. Among those reportedly killed was the clan leader, Zeno Berri. Rebels accused him and others of committing atrocities against civilians. But the executions drew condemnation of the rebel forces. Several opposition groups also publicly denounced the killings.

"Such reprisals are never justified," Nadim Houry of Human Rights Watch said on Twitter.

Some reports indicated that the targeted clan has thousands of followers who could seek revenge, adding to the hostilities in Aleppo.

Rights monitors have documented extrajudicial killings and other abuses by both sides during the Syrian uprising.

Syria's military has suffered heavy losses and numerous defections that have strained its capabilities. A United Nations-commissioned report in June concluded that "regular forces are exhibiting a certain fatigue."

Still, the military retains a substantial edge in training and weaponry compared with the various rebel militias, which are mostly lightly armed, contain many untrained civilians and have no central command.

Government troops and rebels are fighting for control of Aleppo, Syria's most populous city, in what could be a decisive battle in the almost 17-month uprising against Assad's rule.

The U.N. confirmed Wednesday that the military had deployed jets firing rockets and machine guns at rebel positions in Aleppo. The opposition says the government has also used helicopter gunships and artillery to pound rebel-held districts. Rebel commanders say they hope that using guerrilla-style tactics in a dense urban landscape will help neutralize the army's advantage in firepower.

The fight for Aleppo has been brutal and bloody, featuring street fighting for control of neighborhoods and strategic installations such as police stations. Both sides appear to be preparing for a battle that could last weeks.

Tens of thousands of Aleppo residents have fled the city, but aid groups say many people remain trapped. Thousands are said to be living in schools, mosques and parks and at other sites. Aid groups worry that a humanitarian disaster will arise if the combat and shelling spread to other districts of the sprawling city, long Syria's commercial hub.

In Washington, U.S. officials disparaged Assad for keeping his whereabouts unknown since a bombing killed four of his top aides July 18.

"His recent remarks show him for the coward that he is," said Jay Carney, White House press secretary. "He hides out of sight, encouraging the heavily armed Syria military to continue slaughtering civilians in his name."

U.S. officials confirmed that they had increased their aid allocation to the rebels to $25 million, from $15 million. They said the money was for nonlethal aid, notably encrypted radios to help the insurgents remain in touch in the field. U.S. officials say they have set aside $64 million for humanitarian relief in Syria.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARV5LrK9S-k&bpctr=1343879620 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARV5LrK9S-k&bpctr=1343879620)


Astonishing, who would have thought that Islamists would be want to commit atrocities; it's as if they're taking a clue from someone else's play-book.   :hmm:
Incidentally what are those black flags, some of them fly ?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 02, 2012, 12:20:51 AM
I suppose that quoting only one of two ginormous articles means the glass is half full.  :(
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on August 02, 2012, 05:53:30 AM
I've not watched the video, but a black flag is now the symbol of al-Qaeda. Syria's been attracting jihadists for a while so it's hardly a surprise if it is. It may not matter depending on their effectiveness and sentiment though, and particularly whether Syria collapses or not, for example there's also a lot of reports of rebel villages and towns kicking out foreign jihadists.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 02, 2012, 06:26:43 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 02, 2012, 05:53:30 AM
I've not watched the video, but a black flag is now the symbol of al-Qaeda.

Now?  It's been. Hasn't changed for years.

Anybody get a chance, watch this excellent Frontline episode from May on Al Qaeda in Yemen.  It's only 30 minutes long.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/al-qaeda-in-yemen/
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on August 02, 2012, 06:52:55 AM
I meant more that it's an old symbol based on Mohammed's flag, so I think it's only recently been identified solely with al-Qaeda.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 02, 2012, 10:02:32 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 02, 2012, 06:52:55 AM
I meant more that it's an old symbol based on Mohammed's flag, so I think it's only recently been identified solely with al-Qaeda.

Yeah, it's a play on Mohammed's jihad battle flag, and various Al Qaeda franchises have pretty much been using it since we started sucking the air out of the lungs and igniting it with daisycutters.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on August 02, 2012, 10:06:30 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 02, 2012, 10:02:32 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 02, 2012, 06:52:55 AM
I meant more that it's an old symbol based on Mohammed's flag, so I think it's only recently been identified solely with al-Qaeda.

Yeah, it's a play on Mohammed's jihad battle flag, and various Al Qaeda franchises have pretty much been using it since we started sucking the air out of the lungs and igniting it with daisycutters.

When we were at the Air Force Museum a couple weeks ago, I was standing there in awe of a daisycutter they had on display.  Tommy asked me what it was & I simply told him it was one of the coolest things ever made.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 02, 2012, 10:07:50 AM
Quote from: derspiess on August 02, 2012, 10:06:30 AM
Tommy asked me what it was & I simply told him it was one of the coolest things ever made.

:D "Son, when you've got to push something out of the back of an airplane on a palette with a parachute, you know there's a world of hurt on the way."
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on August 04, 2012, 05:28:31 AM
Just noticed this:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fl2.yimg.com%2Fbt%2Fapi%2Fres%2F1.2%2FsT0PQkgsWGAQ8joKmBgcOg--%2FYXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9aW5zZXQ7aD0zMDA7cT04NTt3PTQwMA--%2Fhttp%3A%2F%2Fmedia.zenfs.com%2Fen-US%2Fvideo%2Fvideo.associatedpressfree.com%2FISL-SYR-Wrpx-20120727I_400x300.jpg&hash=5f4a8f09fbbf769807ced34f543ace4772190a26)

Looks very much like an Austrian Steyr AUG rifle. In the region it's used by Oman and Suadi-Arabia. Also, there's Austrian observers on the Golan Heights.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fworld.guns.ru%2Fuserfiles%2Fimages%2Fassault%2Fas20%2Faug_r.jpg&hash=6360f3a824abc5b94b4c1e335a554c835d3644c0)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on August 04, 2012, 05:36:40 AM
Also, this guy is awesome:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.themuslimtimes.org%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2012%2F06%2Frebels2.jpg&hash=1a0c5c7db57597de7da4d57e87f12c1d1655c658)

:lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on August 04, 2012, 05:49:55 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 04, 2012, 05:28:31 AM
Just noticed this:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fl2.yimg.com%2Fbt%2Fapi%2Fres%2F1.2%2FsT0PQkgsWGAQ8joKmBgcOg--%2FYXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9aW5zZXQ7aD0zMDA7cT04NTt3PTQwMA--%2Fhttp%3A%2F%2Fmedia.zenfs.com%2Fen-US%2Fvideo%2Fvideo.associatedpressfree.com%2FISL-SYR-Wrpx-20120727I_400x300.jpg&hash=5f4a8f09fbbf769807ced34f543ace4772190a26)

Looks very much like an Austrian Steyr AUG rifle. In the region it's used by Oman and Suadi-Arabia. Also, there's Austrian observers on the Golan Heights.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fworld.guns.ru%2Fuserfiles%2Fimages%2Fassault%2Fas20%2Faug_r.jpg&hash=6360f3a824abc5b94b4c1e335a554c835d3644c0)

He probably got it the same place Hizbullah got it's night vision gear, combat armor and assault weapons... US gun shows.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on August 04, 2012, 06:33:20 AM
Looks like the old A1, btw. I like the look of the A3 better - with the right modules added it looks like a prop from Aliens.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giantbomb.com%2Fuploads%2F0%2F5345%2F1080786-steyr_aug_a3.jpg&hash=4a3669c8811bcfb1d2ffe582f55b26c8bc0a1437)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on August 04, 2012, 07:46:58 AM
They are all shopping at Red Jacket.

GAMECHANGER.

At least they are being hideously overcharged.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 04, 2012, 07:47:41 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 04, 2012, 05:36:40 AM
Also, this guy is awesome:

:lol:

He ain't hitting shit, but at least he looks beefy doing it.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on August 04, 2012, 02:12:22 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 04, 2012, 07:47:41 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 04, 2012, 05:36:40 AM
Also, this guy is awesome:

:lol:

He ain't hitting shit, but at least he looks beefy doing it.

Just mugging for the camera.  Though I doubt he'd hit much even if was actually trying.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on August 04, 2012, 03:22:38 PM
Quote from: Viking on August 04, 2012, 05:49:55 AM
He probably got it the same place Hizbullah got it's night vision gear, combat armor and assault weapons... US gun shows.

Or more likely, the botched US law enforcement programs that gave hundreds or thousands of guns to Mexican drug cartels, and they in turn sold those guns off for profits.   ;)     
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on August 04, 2012, 10:22:39 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/04/opinion/syrias-crumbling-pluralism.html?_r=2 (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/04/opinion/syrias-crumbling-pluralism.html?_r=2)

Quote
Syria's Crumbling Pluralism

DAMASCUS — The day begins here with the call to prayer and ends with the roar of gunfire. Syria's pluralistic society, which once rose above sectarian identity in a region often characterized by a homicidal assertion of religious belief, is now faced with civil disintegration and ethnic cleansing.
Related

In Bab Touma, the Christian quarter of the old city, the magnificently restored Ottoman mansions housing many of the hotels that only two years ago overflowed with Western tourists have become temporary sanctuaries for Syrian minorities fleeing their homes and cities.

A Christian doctor of Palestinian origin huddling with his family of four in a small room in one of the hotels was looking for a way out of the country: "My father came to Syria as a refugee," he told me. "I made it my home. Now I am having to uproot my two young sons."

His home, in Midan in southern Damascus, came under attack during an intense battle last week between the opposition Free Syrian Army and government forces. Midan is now officially a safe area, but hardly anyone believes that peace will endure.

Syria's 2.3 million Christians, constituting about 10 percent of the country's population, have generally known a more privileged existence under the Assad dynasty than even the Shiite Alawi sect to which President Bashar al-Assad belongs. Yet their allegiance to Assad was never absolute. Some Christians openly clamored for political change in the early months of the anti-government uprising. But as the rebellion became suffused with Sunni militants sympathetic to or affiliated with Al Qaeda, Christians recoiled.

A churchgoing Syrian told me that he used to see himself primarily as "Syrian" and that religious identity, in political terms, was an idea that never occurred to him — until an opposition gang attacked his family earlier this year in Homs. "It's a label they pinned on us," he said. "If their revolution is for everyone, as they keep insisting it is, why are Christians being targeted? It is because what they are waging is not a struggle for freedom, and it's certainly not for everyone."

As Saudi Arabian arms and money bolster the opposition, the 80,000 Christians who've been "cleansed" from their homes in Hamidiya and Bustan al-Diwan in Homs Province in March by the Free Syrian Army have gradually given up the prospect of ever returning home.

The rebels' conduct has prompted at least some Sunnis who had supported the rebels and once-wavering Syrians to pledge renewed loyalty to Assad. Many who once regarded the regime as a kleptocracy now view it as the best guarantor of Syria's endangered pluralism.

A Sunni shopkeeper in the impoverished suburb of Set Zaynab, which was partly destroyed in the clashes last week, no longer supports the rebellion. "I wanted Assad to go because he is corrupt," he said. "But what happened here, what they did, it scared me. It made me angry. I cannot support the murder of my neighbors in the name of change. You cannot bring democracy by killing innocent people or by burning the shrines of Shiites. Syrians don't do that. This is the work of the Wahhabis in Saudi Arabia," he added, referring to the ultra conservative Sunni sect.

Repeated attempts by Free Syrian Army fighters to destroy a shrine to Sayyida Zeinab, the granddaughter of the Prophet Muhammad revered by Shiites, have not yet caused the area's Sunni minority to flee — many Shiites here have refused to blame their Sunni neighbors for the rebels' crimes.

Over the past week, more than a dozen Syrians — chiefly Alawi and Christian, but also a handful of Sunnis — affirmed to me their determination to pick up arms to defend Assad.

The seeming indifference of the international community to the worsening condition of Syria's religious minorities — and the near total absence of censure of the opposition forces by the Western governments arrayed against Assad — is breeding a bitter anti-Americanism among many secular Syrians who see the United States aligning itself with Saudi Arabia, the fount of Wahhabism, against the Arab world's most resolutely secular state.

Fresh from abetting the suppression of a pro-democracy uprising in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia's intervention in Syria is part of its effort to attenuate Iran's influence and cripple what it fears is a growing Shiite corridor of power in the Middle East.

Most Syrians, regardless of their faith, want the power to change their government. But the armed groups that have seized control of the rebellion, now contaminated with Al Qaeda fighters and corrupted by Saudi money, have repelled many people.

A year and a half after the insurrection began, Assad's forces are exhausted and dispirited — but there is no sign yet of a simultaneous mass uprising in any of the major cities. Instead, rebel fighters on Saudi payroll launch coordinated attacks on high-value targets, the Syrian Army retaliates with disproportionate force, and videos of the ensuing devastation are posted on the Internet.

Proponents of a peaceful political solution, like the signatories to the so-called Sant'Egidio appeal last week in Italy, have been eclipsed by sectarian leaders of the Syrian National Council urging the international community to give them anti-aircraft weapons.

Washington is aware of the scale of the problem. As early as June 2011, Robert Stephen Ford, the U.S. ambassador to Syria, briefed his counterparts in Damascus about Al Qaeda's penetration of the opposition forces. By still ploughing ahead with its support for Saudi Arabia's effort to destabilize Syria, Washington, far from assisting Israel or weakening Iran, is helping to fuel a humanitarian crisis that will come back to haunt the United States.

Kapil Komireddi, an Indian journalist, has written from South Asia, Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on August 05, 2012, 09:30:38 PM
I got a major murder boner with the footage of Frogfoots in action over Aleppo.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 05, 2012, 09:46:04 PM
QuoteBy still ploughing ahead with its support for Saudi Arabia's effort to destabilize Syria, Washington, far from assisting Israel or weakening Iran, is helping to fuel a humanitarian crisis that will come back to haunt the United States.

Yeah, we never learn when it comes to those people.  Once the government falls, it's gonna Iraqi Tribalism In A Vacuum Part Deux.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on August 05, 2012, 10:10:26 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 05, 2012, 09:30:38 PM
I got a major murder boner with the footage of Frogfoots in action over Aleppo.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVWUrhWRmQQ (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVWUrhWRmQQ)

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on August 06, 2012, 06:31:20 AM
Quote from: citizen k on August 05, 2012, 10:10:26 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 05, 2012, 09:30:38 PM
I got a major murder boner with the footage of Frogfoots in action over Aleppo.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVWUrhWRmQQ (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVWUrhWRmQQ)

:boner:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 06, 2012, 06:34:07 AM
Well, either PM Hijab was fired, or he fled with his family to Jordan, depending on who you ask.  What a mess.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on August 06, 2012, 06:35:30 AM
To Jordan? Poor guy.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 07, 2012, 07:05:45 PM
Squee, insha'allah.

QuoteIran pledges support for Syria as battle rages for Aleppo

BEIRUT — Iran pledged support for Syria's beleaguered government Tuesday as forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad battled rebels for control of Aleppo, unleashing intense bombardments from the air and ground that forced thousands of civilian inhabitants to flee the country's largest city.

In a high-level show of support, Saeed Jalili, the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, met with Assad in Damascus and vowed that Iran would help its ally confront "attempts at blatant foreign interference" in Syria's internal affairs, the official Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) reported.

Video footage of the meeting, broadcast on Syrian state television, gave Syrians their first glimpse of Assad in nearly three weeks — since he was shown on TV swearing in a new defense minister to replace one of four top security officials who were assassinated in a July 18 bombing.

"Iran will not allow the axis of resistance, of which it considers Syria to be an essential part, to be broken in any way," Syrian television quoted Jalili as saying during the meeting. The Iranian, who is also his country's lead nuclear negotiator, was referring to Iran's alliance with Syria and the Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah in confronting Israel.

In the northern city of Aleppo, Syria's commercial capital, fighting raged between government forces and rebels near the city center Tuesday, opposition groups reported. They said Assad's forces battered neighborhoods across the city with aerial bombing, artillery shells and rockets fired from helicopters.

"I heard a huge explosion this afternoon and went to the roof to see," said a 28-year-old Aleppo resident who asked that his name not be used for his safety. "I was told by a friend who is closer to that area that two buildings in that street were shelled and they fell down."

The Syrian army also shelled Damascus and a number of smaller cities Tuesday. At least 140 people were killed across the country, including 31 dead in Damascus, 29 in Homs and 27 in Aleppo, according to the Local Coordination Committees, an activist network.

Rebel fighters in Aleppo said they were running low on ammunition as they sought to hold neighborhoods on the southern edge of the city, Reuters news agency reported. Assad's forces blasted rebel positions with tanks and mortars and deployed snipers on rooftops. Meanwhile, a fighter jet carried out airstrikes on the eastern districts of Aleppo.

The assault has forced thousands of frightened refugees to flee the city for safety, news agencies reported.

In South Africa, visiting Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Tuesday that the fighting and a series of defections from Assad's government underscore the urgency of planning for his departure.

"The intensity of the fighting in Aleppo, the defections, really point out how imperative it is that we come together and work toward a good transition plan," Clinton told reporters at a news conference with South Africa's foreign minister. She is scheduled to travel to Istanbul, Turkey, this weekend for talks with Turkish officials and Syrian opposition figures.

Clinton also issued a veiled warning against Iranian involvement in a Syrian conflict that she suggested could turn into sectarian warfare. "Those who are attempting to exploit the misery of the Syrian people, either by sending in proxies or sending in terrorist fighters, must recognize that that will not be tolerated first and foremost by the Syrian people," she said.

During his meeting with Jalili, Assad "stressed the Syrian people and government's determination to clear the country of the terrorists and fight terrorism without tolerance," SANA reported.

Jalili was quoted as saying that the only way to resolve the unrest in the country would be to find a "Syrian solution."

Jalili's visit to Damascus was also aimed in part at seeking ways to secure the release of 48 Iranians captured by rebels just outside the capital on Saturday.

The Iranian government claims that its captured nationals were Shiite pilgrims on their way to Sayida Zeinab, a Muslim shrine south of Damascus that is popular with Shiites. But rebels assert that the Iranians belong to their country's elite Revolutionary Guard Corps and were on a mission to help the Assad government battle Syria's persistent 17-month-long uprising.

"Kidnapping innocent people is not acceptable anywhere in the world," Jalili said, according to Iran's official Islamic Republic News Agency. He said Iran would do what it could to "secure release of the 48 innocent pilgrims kidnapped in Syria."

Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi also traveled to Turkey on Tuesday in an additional diplomatic push to free the captives. The government of Turkey is close to the Syrian opposition.

The fate of the Iranians remained clear Tuesday. Three members of the group were reportedly killed by government shelling on Monday, according to rebels from the Free Syrian Army.

In a letter Tuesday to U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, Salehi referred to "media reports" about the three deaths and said that "the hostage takers have threatened to kill the remaining captives in the coming hours." He said the Iranians were abducted while "on their way to the Damascus Airport." The letter requested Ban's help in securing the immediate release of the Iranians.

Late on Monday, the Iranian Foreign Ministry summoned the Swiss charge d'affaires in Tehran to protest the kidnapping and emphasize that the U.S. government would be held responsible for the fate of the Iranians. The Swiss Embassy in Tehran has represented U.S. interests in the country since Iran and the United States officially severed diplomatic ties in 1980.

Before going to Damascus, Jalili stopped in Lebanon on Monday, stirring the ire of Lebanese political factions opposed to Assad. "The visit is against the interest of the Lebanese people who stand by their brothers in Syria," former prime minister Saad Hariri said in a statement. He added, "Iran should know that all these threats and suspicious moves will not delay the fall of its ally Bashar al-Assad."

Jalili's visit came a day after Syria's prime minister defected to Jordan, becoming the most senior official to quit Assad's embattled government, according to rebels who claim they helped him escape.

The reported defection of Prime Minister Riyad al-Hijab buoyed the rebels, who saw it as a clear sign that top officials are abandoning Assad as he attempts

A statement attributed to Hijab and read on the al-Jazeera Arabic news channel Monday said he had resigned to protest his government's harsh tactics in confronting the opposition.

"I am announcing that I am defecting from this regime, which is a murderous and terrorist regime," the statement said. "I join the ranks of this dignified revolution."

Real power in Syria is wielded by Assad's inner circle of friends, family and the powerful chiefs of his security forces. But the defection of the head of Assad's government nonetheless sent a strong signal that his support is rapidly unraveling even within the ranks of those assumed to still be loyal.

Hijab, a former agriculture minister and a member of the ruling Baath Party, is a Sunni Muslim from the eastern town of Deir al-Zour, which has been in open revolt against the government for more than a year.

Reuters news service quoted an unidentified Jordanian government official as confirming that Hijab had defected and taken refuge there. Syrian state television, however, reported that Hijab had been fired, less than two months after he was appointed to the job. Deputy Prime Minister Omar Galawanji was appointed as the head of a caretaker government, according to the official Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA).

Hijab's departure followed an accelerating stream of defections from Syria's armed forces, including that of Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlas, a former confidant and close friend of Assad's who fled to Turkey a month ago, then went to France to join his father, a once-powerful former defense minister.

A senior State Department official traveling with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in South Africa said that the defection, if confirmed, would represent "further evidence that the Assad regime is crumbling.''

"Its days are numbered, and we call on other senior members of the regime and the military to break with the bloody past and help chart a new path for Syria — one that is peaceful, democratic, inclusive and just,'' the senior State Department official said.

The Syrian military blasted Damascus and at least half a dozen cities around the country Monday with artillery as fierce clashes rocked Aleppo. At least 116 people were killed across Syria on Monday, including 30 in Aleppo and 29 in Damascus and its suburbs, according to the Local Coordination Committees, an activist network.

In Damascus, a bomb exploded Monday in the state television offices, causing minor injuries, according to SANA. Photos taken after the blast, which hit the third floor of the building, showed a demolished roof with wires hanging down.

The complicated operation to get Hijab out of the country was completed in a series of carefully planned steps by the Free Syrian Army, according to Col. Malik Kurdi, a deputy commander with the rebel force.

"The prime minister and his family were transferred outside Syria to Jordan by separate vehicles and at different times," Kurdi said. "The defectors cannot leave in an hour or a day. The process takes a long time, and there are many phases and routes."

Jordanian authorities may not have initially known about Hijab's entry into the country because he was brought via smuggling routes, Kurdi said. But Jordanian contacts eventually met him once he crossed the border. Kurdi predicted that the successful escape would lead to more defections among other top officials who have been thinking of leaving the country.

Sly reported from Antakya, Turkey. Anne Gearan in South Africa, William Branigin and Greg Miller in Washington, and Suzan Haidamous and Ahmed Ramadan in Beirut contributed to this report.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on August 07, 2012, 09:08:28 PM
Iranian leaders must be about as nervous about this as Syrian leaders are. They stand to lose a major ally, one of their few and I think the only one in the region besides extremist groups, and Hezbollah is the main one, or only one, of those which are allies.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on August 07, 2012, 11:57:17 PM
Pilgrims my ass.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsXr3mHazbg (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsXr3mHazbg)


Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on August 08, 2012, 04:31:10 AM
Quote from: citizen k on August 07, 2012, 11:57:17 PM
Pilgrims my ass.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsXr3mHazbg (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsXr3mHazbg)

I want to point out that US Army slang for Insurgents is Haji which means "some one who has been on pilgrimage to Mecca". They may not be lying when they claim they are pilgrims.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on August 08, 2012, 02:07:02 PM
Quote from: Viking on August 08, 2012, 04:31:10 AM
Quote from: citizen k on August 07, 2012, 11:57:17 PM
Pilgrims my ass.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsXr3mHazbg (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsXr3mHazbg)
They may not be lying when they claim they are pilgrims.

Al-Quds also sponsors tours of the Holy Land. Suicide vest included.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on August 08, 2012, 03:56:18 PM
I think I saw some hot Su-24 Fencer(Maybe a Mig-23, but looked a little big for a Flogger) action today on the news. And more dreamy Frogfoot attack runs. :wub:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on August 08, 2012, 03:57:38 PM
Quote from: citizen k on August 08, 2012, 02:07:02 PM
Quote from: Viking on August 08, 2012, 04:31:10 AM
Quote from: citizen k on August 07, 2012, 11:57:17 PM
Pilgrims my ass.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsXr3mHazbg (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsXr3mHazbg)
They may not be lying when they claim they are pilgrims.

Al-Quds also sponsors tours of the Holy Land. Suicide vest included.

Guess that saves money on return airplane tickets.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on August 09, 2012, 11:35:31 PM
Quote
Syria rebels retreat from key Aleppo district

Rebels retreated from the key Aleppo district of Salaheddin under a deadly rain of shellfire Thursday, as a veteran Algerian diplomat was set to be named the new international envoy to Syria.

"We have staged a tactical withdrawal from Salaheddin. The district is completely empty of rebel fighters. Regime forces are now advancing into Salaheddin," said Hossam Abu Mohammed, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) commander, with the battle for Syria's commercial capital raging into a second day.

"The fighters are withdrawing to (nearby) Sukari district, where they are preparing a counter-attack," he told AFP by telephone.

Abu Mohammed cited heavy shelling and the army's use of thermobaric bombs, which throw out a wall of fire to incinerate targets in enclosed spaces.

"A large number of civilians were killed, as were some 40 rebels," he said. "Forty buildings have been flattened."

State television said: "Our special forces have cleansed Salaheddin district of terrorists."

But Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said that fighters remained in the district, ready to "fight to the death."

Wassel Ayub, who commands the Nur al-Haq Brigade, said the FSA had withdrawn "to open a new front in Saif al-Dawla and Mashhad."

FSA spokesman Kassem Saadeddine, speaking by Skype, said the withdrawal "does not mean we are leaving Aleppo. We have military plans to fight in the city, but we cannot reveal them."

In Damascus, a security source said regime forces were "advancing quickly" in Salaheddin towards Saif al-Dawla.

"But the next big battle, which will be very fierce, will be in the (southeastern) Sukari district," he added.


At least 17 people were killed in Aleppo, scene of fierce battles since July 20, the Observatory said, adding that two children and a citizen journalist were among them.

Nationwide, the toll reached 96 -- 37 civilians, 31 soldiers and 28 rebels -- according to the Observatory. That compared with 167 on Wednesday, including 33 in Aleppo.

Elsewhere, fierce fighting also broke out in Damascus province, where at least 15 people were killed, most of them civilians, while regime forces shelled Zabadani, the monitoring group said.

On Wednesday, loyalist troops launched their offensive against the rebels, who had claimed to control half the city, after President Bashar al-Assad vowed a day earlier to crush the rebellion that erupted in March 2011.

Diplomats at the United Nations said former Algerian foreign minister Lakhdar Brahimi was expected to be named as the new UN-Arab League envoy to Syria.

Negotiations were still going on over the envoy's role and how the United Nations will operate in Syria amid the intensifying civil war. The mandate of the UN mission in the country ends on August 20.

An official announcement of the 78-year-old's appointment was expected to be made early next week, diplomats said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Brahimi was the UN envoy in Afghanistan after the September 11, 2001 attacks and in Iraq after the 2003 US-led invasion.

Kofi Annan, a former UN secretary-general, said he was leaving the post because of the lack of international support for his efforts to end the 17-month Syria conflict, in which rebels say more than 20,000 people have been killed.

He is staying on until August 31.

Activists on the Syria Revolution 2011 Facebook page called for the traditional demonstration following weekly Muslim prayers on Friday, with this week's slogan being "Arm us with anti-aircraft weapons."

On the political front, Assad appointed Health Minister Wael al-Halqi as his new premier following the defection this week of Riad Hijab, a leading Sunni Muslim in the minority Alawite-dominated regime.

Halqi served as ruling Baath party secretary from 2000 to 2004 in his home province of Daraa, the birthplace in southern Syria of the anti-Assad revolt.

Day two of the battle for Aleppo came as Syria's key regional ally Iran hosted a 29-nation meeting aimed at finding ways to end the raging conflict.

State media said the foreign ministers of Iraq, Pakistan and Zimbabwe were present. Lower-ranking diplomats, most of them ambassadors, represented the other nations.

Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi opened the meeting by calling for "national dialogue between the (Syrian) opposition, which has popular support, and the Syrian government to establish calm and security," according to state television.

He added that Iran was prepared to host any such dialogue.

Earlier, Salehi said Tehran was attempting to revive parts of Annan's plan, notably: implementing a ceasefire, sending humanitarian aid and laying groundwork for national dialogue.

Excluded from the Tehran meeting were Western and Gulf Arab nations that Iran has accused of giving military backing to the insurgency.

There was no immediate word from the predominantly Sunni Muslim Syrian opposition and rebels on how they viewed the conference in majority Shiite Iran, a stalwart ally of Assad's regime.

The United States dismissed the conference in Tehran, saying the Islamic Republic had been helping Assad kill his people.



Watch out for that backblast on the recoilless :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCXc1ex5i6A (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCXc1ex5i6A)


Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 10, 2012, 12:18:46 AM
Quote from: citizen k on August 09, 2012, 11:35:31 PM
Watch out for that backblast on the recoilless :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCXc1ex5i6A (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCXc1ex5i6A)

You sure that wasn't incoming fire?   Right afterwards, they looked like they were taking small arms fire from their left, along the treeline on the other side of the field, and they were no longer in defilade.  ALLAH ADMIRAL ACKBAR
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on August 10, 2012, 01:45:17 AM
Damn those BMPs look cramped.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on August 10, 2012, 12:00:18 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 10, 2012, 01:45:17 AM
Damn those BMPs look cramped.

They are.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on August 10, 2012, 12:13:11 PM
Good armor though.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on August 10, 2012, 12:20:46 PM
Quote from: The Brain on August 10, 2012, 12:13:11 PM
Good armor though.
If I recall my M1 Tank Platoon Commander game properly they might be messed up by the 7.62 but it usually took a HEAT round to finish them off.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 10, 2012, 06:45:51 PM
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on August 10, 2012, 12:20:46 PM
If I recall my M1 Tank Platoon Commander game properly they might be messed up by the 7.62 but it usually took a HEAT round to finish them off.

Yeah, but that was a complete and total inaccuracy in the game, as the T-72's reactive armor was better than any Chobham armor we have. 
I should know, an ex-Ranger told me that.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on August 10, 2012, 08:12:02 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 10, 2012, 12:00:18 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 10, 2012, 01:45:17 AM
Damn those BMPs look cramped.

They are.

Also they catch on fire pretty easy, and some idiot thought it was good idea to store the fuel inside the doors.  Didn't help the damn thing had weak armor on the sides and back, so weak that it was susceptible to machine guns.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on August 10, 2012, 08:39:28 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 10, 2012, 08:12:02 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 10, 2012, 12:00:18 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 10, 2012, 01:45:17 AM
Damn those BMPs look cramped.

They are.

Also they catch on fire pretty easy, and some idiot thought it was good idea to store the fuel inside the doors.  Didn't help the damn thing had weak armor on the sides and back, so weak that it was susceptible to machine guns.

You are supposed to pointed at the enemy, comrade.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on August 10, 2012, 08:53:56 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 10, 2012, 06:45:51 PM
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on August 10, 2012, 12:20:46 PM
If I recall my M1 Tank Platoon Commander game properly they might be messed up by the 7.62 but it usually took a HEAT round to finish them off.

Yeah, but that was a complete and total inaccuracy in the game, as the T-72's reactive armor was better than any Chobham armor we have. 
I should know, an ex-Ranger told me that.
The salad days of Languish.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on August 10, 2012, 09:15:04 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 10, 2012, 06:45:51 PM
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on August 10, 2012, 12:20:46 PM
If I recall my M1 Tank Platoon Commander game properly they might be messed up by the 7.62 but it usually took a HEAT round to finish them off.

Yeah, but that was a complete and total inaccuracy in the game, as the T-72's reactive armor was better than any Chobham armor we have. 
I should know, an ex-Ranger told me that.

This is the Languish litmus test, if you get it, then you've been here a Long Time or Too Long, delete as applicable. :hmm:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Neil on August 10, 2012, 09:24:55 PM
Wasn't that actually a Paradox thread?  That and the Octagon.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 10, 2012, 10:15:26 PM
Quote from: Neil on August 10, 2012, 09:24:55 PM
Wasn't that actually a Paradox thread?  That and the Octagon.

Yup. On both counts.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on August 11, 2012, 01:32:03 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 10, 2012, 10:15:26 PM
Quote from: Neil on August 10, 2012, 09:24:55 PM
Wasn't that actually a Paradox thread?  That and the Octagon.

Yup. On both counts.

good times heh
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on August 11, 2012, 02:42:21 AM
Looking back, some of that shit was a decade ago.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on August 11, 2012, 06:40:18 AM
It was?  Been a long eleven years for me.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: FunkMonk on August 11, 2012, 08:35:38 AM
Some jokes can never be allowed to die.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on August 13, 2012, 12:28:50 AM
The opposition calls for nofly zones.

The Turks should be responsible for it in my opinion. Syria's in their sphere of influence and Turkey is quite capable of doing so.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/48639078/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/

QuoteBy Hadeel Al Shalchi
updated 8/12/2012 2:56:51 PM ET

    Print
    Font:

ALEPPO, Syria — Syrian rebels fighting to oust President Bashar al-Assad need the protection of foreign-guarded no-fly zones and safe havens near the borders with Jordan and Turkey, a Syrian opposition leader said on Sunday.

Battles raged on in the northern city of Aleppo, where tanks, artillery and snipers attacked rebels in the Saif al-Dawla district next to the devastated area of Salaheddine.

Abdelbasset Sida, head of the Syrian National Council, said the United States had realized that the absence of a no-fly zone to counter Assad's air superiority hindered rebel movements.

He was speaking a day after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said her country and Turkey would study a range of possible measures to help Assad's foes, including a no-fly zone, although she indicated no decisions were necessarily imminent.

"It is one thing to talk about all kinds of potential actions, but you cannot make reasoned decisions without doing intense analysis and operational planning," she said after meeting Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Istanbul.

Though any intervention appears to be a distant prospect, her remarks were nevertheless the closest Washington has come to suggesting direct military action in Syria.

"There are areas that are being liberated," Sida told Reuters by telephone from Istanbul. "But the problem is the aircraft, in addition to the artillery bombardment, causing killing, destruction."

He said the establishment of secure areas on the borders with Jordan and Turkey "was an essential thing that would confirm to the regime that its power is diminishing bit by bit."

A no-fly zone imposed by NATO and Arab allies helped Libyan rebels overthrow Moammar Gadhafi last year. The West has shown little appetite for repeating any Libya-style action in Syria, and Russia and China strongly oppose any such intervention.

Tanks advance
Insurgents have expanded territory they hold near the Turkish border in the last few weeks since the Syrian army gathered its forces for an offensive to regain control of Aleppo, Syria's biggest city and economic hub.

Rebels who seized swathes of the city three weeks ago have been fighting to hold their ground against troops backed by warplanes, helicopter gunships, tanks and artillery.

One rebel commander named Yasir Osman, 35, told Reuters tanks had advanced into Salaheddine, despite attempts to fend them off by 150 fighters he said were short of ammunition.

"Yesterday we encircled the Salaheddine petrol station, which the army has been using as a base and we killed its commander and took a lot of ammunition and weapons. This ammunition is what we are using fight today," he said.

Osman said army tanks had thrust past a roundabout in Salaheddine visited by a Reuters team on Saturday after accompanying rebels on a mazy route through holes punched in apartment walls to create a passage safe from army snipers.

After emerging at the roundabout, sniper fire started up, then a tank could be heard rumbling in the next street. "Tank, tank, tank," one man yelled.

Quickly, a rebel shifted a rocket-propelled grenade over his shoulder and squatted on the rubble-strewn ground to fire, but minutes later, a tank shell exploded against a nearby building.
Rebels fired another RPG, answered with a rain of mortar bombs filling the sky with smoke and shrapnel. "They're going to send more mortars. Hide in the doorway," one rebel screamed.

The uneven battle showed the disparity in firepower between Assad's forces and their outgunned opponents.

Assad swears in new premier
Aleppo and the capital Damascus, where troops snuffed out a rebel offensive last month, are vital to Assad's struggle for the survival of a ruling system his family and members of his minority Alawite clan have dominated for four decades.

Assad has suffered some painful, but not yet fatal, setbacks away from the battlefield, losing four of his closest aides in a bomb explosion on July 18 and suffering the embarrassment of seeing his prime minister defect and flee to Jordan last week.

Syrian state television showed Assad swearing in Wael al-Halki on Saturday to replace Riyad Hijab, who had only spent two months in the job. Halki is a Sunni Muslim from the southern province of Deraa where the uprising began 17 months ago.

The deputy police commander in the central province of Homs was the latest to join a steady trickle of desertions, said an official in the opposition Higher Revolution Council group.

"Brigadier General Ibrahim al-Jabawi has crossed into Jordan," the official told Reuters from Amman.

Ali Abbas, a journalist for the state news agency SANA, was killed on Saturday night by what the agency called "an armed terrorist group," referring to anti-Assad rebels.

At least 11 people were killed the same day when the military mounted an armored attack to try to dislodge rebels from al-Tel, a northern suburb of Damascus, activists said.

More than 160 Syrians, including 116 civilians, were killed across the country on Saturday, the London-based opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported.

The Arab League said it had postponed a meeting of Arab foreign ministers scheduled for Sunday to discuss the Syria crisis and to select a replacement for Kofi Annan, the United Nations-Arab League envoy, and would set a new date.

Deputy Arab League chief Ahmed Ben Helli told Reuters the meeting was delayed because of a minor operation undergone by Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey are the leading regional supporters of the Syrian opposition. Assad's main backers are Iran and Lebanon's Shi'ite Hezbollah move

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 13, 2012, 05:49:45 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on August 13, 2012, 12:28:50 AM
The Turks should be responsible for it in my opinion. Syria's in their sphere of influence and Turkey is quite capable of doing so.

Eh, no. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on August 13, 2012, 07:11:51 AM
Why would th Turks do it? Arabs killing each other and preventing the Kurds from becoming independent is pretty much what they want.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on August 13, 2012, 09:57:54 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 13, 2012, 05:49:45 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on August 13, 2012, 12:28:50 AM
The Turks should be responsible for it in my opinion. Syria's in their sphere of influence and Turkey is quite capable of doing so.

Eh, no.
What are you disagreeing with? All three statements, or just one?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Grey Fox on August 13, 2012, 10:01:55 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on August 13, 2012, 09:57:54 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 13, 2012, 05:49:45 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on August 13, 2012, 12:28:50 AM
The Turks should be responsible for it in my opinion. Syria's in their sphere of influence and Turkey is quite capable of doing so.

Eh, no.
What are you disagreeing with? All three statements, or just one?

All 3, Don't trust to Muslim world to do anything but foot the bill and even then.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on August 13, 2012, 12:52:15 PM
More hot plane action. A claimed shoot down of a Mig-23. but no plane crashing footage.

http://youtu.be/VSyTcvkvD_o

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 13, 2012, 12:53:22 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on August 13, 2012, 09:57:54 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 13, 2012, 05:49:45 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on August 13, 2012, 12:28:50 AM
The Turks should be responsible for it in my opinion. Syria's in their sphere of influence and Turkey is quite capable of doing so.

Eh, no.
What are you disagreeing with? All three statements, or just one?

All three.

The Turks should not be responsible for it, as it runs counter to the collective security approach of an international effort.
Turkish Air Force sucks ass.
Turkish military is too emotionally invested to do the right thing objectively.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on August 13, 2012, 12:56:27 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 13, 2012, 12:52:15 PM
More hot plane action. A claimed shoot down of a Mig-23. but no plane crashing footage.

http://youtu.be/VSyTcvkvD_o

I keep waiting for one of these camel jockeys to chant "Raytheon-hu-ackbar" or "Almaz-Antey-hu-ackbar" rather than crediting god for the hard work done by missile designers.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 13, 2012, 03:46:53 PM
Concensus seems to be it was hit by AA.  Good guys don't have any Stingers yet.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on August 13, 2012, 04:30:27 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 13, 2012, 03:46:53 PM
Concensus seems to be it was hit by AA.  Good guys don't have any Stingers yet.

Bofors-hu-ackbar then....

Stingers have use by dates hamdilulla
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 13, 2012, 04:34:32 PM
Quote from: Viking on August 13, 2012, 04:30:27 PM
Bofors-hu-ackbar then....

Captured ZIL or ZIF or ZAM most likely.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on August 20, 2012, 06:36:18 PM
A reasonable decision in my opinion.

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/20/13379062-obama-draws-red-line-for-syria-on-chemical-and-biological-weapons?lite

QuoteObama draws 'red line' for Syria on chemical and biological weapons
By NBC's Shawna Thomas

President Barack Obama said he would have to rethink his current opposition to U.S. military engagement in Syria if the regime there were to use or move its chemical and biological weapons.

The president told NBC's Chuck Todd that he couldn't be "absolutely confident" that the stockpiles of weapons possessed by Bashar al-Assad's regime were completely secure.

"What I'm saying is we're monitoring that situation very carefully," Obama said in a surprise appearance in the White House briefing room.

But if the Assad regime were to use its weapons stockpiles, or alternatively, move it around, Obama suggested military action could be on the table.

"We have been very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players on the ground, that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized," the president said. "That would change my calculus. That would change my equation."


Earlier this month, when asked about contingency planning for the Syrian conflict, Secretary Hillary Clinton drew the "red line" at only the use of chemical weapons.

"Both the minister [Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu] and I saw eye to eye on the many tasks that are ahead of us, and the kinds of contingencies that we have to plan for, including the one you mentioned in the horrible event that chemical weapons were used. And everyone has made it clear to the Syrian regime that is a red line for the world," Clinton said at the time.


But today, he made sure to emphasize that all major players in the region have been informed of where his line falls.

"We have communicated in no uncertain terms with every player in the region that that's a red line for us and that there would be enormous consequences if we start seeing movement on the chemical weapons front or the use of chemical weapons," he said. "That would change my calculations significantly."


Obama also made a point of saying that the issue of chemical weapons doesn't just concern Syria and the United States, but also allies in the region including Israel.

While the international community would still like to see a political solution to the violence in Syria, Obama said, "at this point the likelihood of a soft landing seems pretty distant."

The U.S. will most likely provide even more monetary humanitarian assistance to help those fleeing the Syrian conflict on top of the $82 million the government has already given. According to USAID, the United Nations "estimates that approximately 2 million people in Syria are in need of humanitarian assistance, approximately 1 million people are internally displaced, and more than 140,000 people have fled to the neighboring countries of Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon, and Iraq."
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on August 20, 2012, 07:29:56 PM
Mig-21 attack run:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4On3lQTcsw&feature=youtu.be

Ed Anger war boner rating: 2/5

Not enough pew pew.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on August 20, 2012, 07:38:14 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 20, 2012, 07:29:56 PM
Mig-21 attack run:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4On3lQTcsw&feature=youtu.be

Ed Anger war boner rating: 2/5

Not enough pew pew.

It's a MiG-21.  What do you expect?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on August 20, 2012, 07:38:46 PM
Quote from: derspiess on August 20, 2012, 07:38:14 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 20, 2012, 07:29:56 PM
Mig-21 attack run:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4On3lQTcsw&feature=youtu.be

Ed Anger war boner rating: 2/5

Not enough pew pew.

It's a MiG-21.  What do you expect?

Explosions.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on August 20, 2012, 07:39:34 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 20, 2012, 07:38:46 PM
Quote from: derspiess on August 20, 2012, 07:38:14 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 20, 2012, 07:29:56 PM
Mig-21 attack run:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4On3lQTcsw&feature=youtu.be

Ed Anger war boner rating: 2/5

Not enough pew pew.

It's a MiG-21.  What do you expect?

Explosions.

You need Chairforce or IAF for that to happen.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 20, 2012, 07:47:57 PM
Quote from: Viking on August 13, 2012, 04:30:27 PM
Bofors-hu-ackbar then....

Stingers have use by dates hamdilulla

I LULZ'd.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on August 20, 2012, 10:55:51 PM
So it sounds like Obama is saying that if Assad starts using chemical weapons, we're more likely to jump into the conflict.  Doesn't sound too appetizing to me.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on August 20, 2012, 10:57:49 PM
Quote from: derspiess on August 20, 2012, 10:55:51 PM
So it sounds like Obama is saying that if Assad starts using chemical weapons, we're more likely to jump into the conflict.  Doesn't sound too appetizing to me.
War isn't supposed to be appetizing, you know?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on August 21, 2012, 12:21:07 AM
Germany is sending a surveillance ship to the Syrian coast. The German news sites are full of handwringing from posters about "participating in a war", that military/intelligence services/the USA are evil etc. It's EUOT^3 :bleeding:

It really pisses me off that even on webpages of rather decent, relatively high-brow, non-sensationalist papers you have a vast majority of posters who think:
- military is evil
- weapons are evil
- intelligence services are evil
- politicians are all the same
- corporations are evil
- Amerikkka is evil
- mankind is evil (for destroying the planet)
- Germany should act in foreign affairs only on humanitarian grounds ("Have we learned nothing from our history!!!???!!")
- criminals should be resocialized (except kiddie-diddlers who should be killed as inhumanely as possible)
- we must not piss off Muslims
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on August 21, 2012, 01:28:11 AM
Pretty interesting article.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/48733350/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/

QuoteSyrian rebels coalesce into a fighting force
Group represents a cross-section of a nation in upheaval

By C.J. CHIVERS
updated 2 hours 12 minutes ago

TAL RIFAAT, Syria — Abdul Hakim Yasin, the commander of a Syrian antigovernment fighting group, lurched his pickup truck to a stop inside the captured residential compound he uses as his guerrilla base.

His fighters had been waiting for orders for a predawn attack on an army checkpoint at the entrance to Aleppo, Syria's largest city. The men had been issued ammunition and had said their prayers. Their truck bomb was almost prepared.

Now the commander had a surprise. Minutes earlier, his father, who had been arrested by the army at the same checkpoint in July, had called to say his jailers had released him. He needed a ride out of Aleppo, fast.

"God is great!" the men shouted. They climbed onto trucks, loaded weapons and accelerated away, barreling through darkness on nearly deserted roads toward a city under siege, to reclaim one of their own.

Mr. Yasin was pensive as he drove, worried that the call was a ploy to lure him and his fighters into a trap. "Often the government does this," he said. "Usually it is an ambush."

He had sent an empty freight truck ahead, he said, to check the way. But he never slowed down.

During five days last week, Mr. Yasin and his group, the Lions of Tawhid, allowed two journalists from The New York Times to live and travel beside them as they fought their part in the war to unseat President Bashar al-Assad.

This group falls under the command of Al Tawhid Brigade, a relatively new structure in Aleppo Province that has unified several groups and fights under the banner of the Free Syrian Army, the loose coalition of armed rebels.

While broad extrapolations are difficult to glean from one fighting group in a complex society, the activities and personal stories of these men, a mix of civilians who took up arms and dozens of army defectors who joined them, offers a fine-grained look of the uprising, and the momentum and guerrilla energy it has attained.

Mr. Yasin, 37, was a clean-shaven accountant before the war. He lived a quiet life with his wife and two young sons. Now thickly bearded and projecting a stoic calm under fire, he has been hardened by his war in ways he could not have foreseen.

He roams the Aleppo region with dozens of armed men in camouflage, plotting attacks with other commanders, evading airstrikes, meeting with smugglers and bombmakers to gather more weapons, and rotating through front-line duties in a gritty street-by-street urban campaign. He prefers to sleep by day, and fight by night.

His fighters are a cross section of a nation at war with itself. They include a real estate agent, several farmers, construction workers and a nurse who owned a short-order restaurant. These men fight side by side with a cadre of army defectors, who say the government they once served must fall.

The civilians started with stones and firearms bought for hunting. Their first more powerful weapon was a huge slingshot for hurling Molotov cocktails and small homemade bombs. As professional soldiers have joined them, they have gradually acquired assault rifles, machine guns and rocket-propelled and hand grenades. They now control a captured armored vehicle and two tanks.

As they have grown in numbers and strength, they have organized into a force that mixes paramilitary discipline, civilian policing, Islamic law and the harsh demands of necessity with battlefield coldness and outright cunning. They have informants and spies, and eavesdrop on the government's military radios while trying to form a nascent government themselves in the territory under their control.

But mostly they yearn to fight, seeking to destroy the Assad government and its better-equipped forces by most any means. Their collective confidence that they will prevail both bonds them together and informs their sense that this is their time.

From protests to arms
For the people of Tal Rifaat, a city of roughly 20,000 people on an agricultural plain, the uprising moved in stages from peaceful demonstrations to open war. It began with protests early in 2011, which the government tried to smash.

By midsummer last year, Abdul Hakim Yasin had formed a guerrilla cell with fewer than 10 other residents. They began with four shotguns and hunting rifles against a government with an extensive internal police and intelligence apparatus and a military with hundreds of thousands of troops.
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Last September, security forces scattered a protest at the city's rail yard with gunfire; 83 people were wounded. One man, Ahmed Mohammed Homed, 32, was killed. Mr. Yasin said he knew then that they were at war. "Everyone in Tal Rifaat formed into teams," he said.

As the gunmen organized ambushes, the city's machinists and mechanics also went to work, learning to concoct explosives to pack into bombs. The government's crackdown had spawned an insurgency, in Tal Rifaat as elsewhere.

By this spring, as the army came to occupy Tal Rifaat, the now war-savvy city had all but emptied. The soldiers painted graffiti on the city's walls. "Assad or nobody," one scrawl read.

A revolutionary painted a reply: "We will kneel only for God."

In a fashion as old as guerrilla war, as the ranks swelled, the original members agreed to divide, forming interconnected fighting groups that began to accept army defectors. It was then that Jamal Abu Houran, a Syrian infantry soldier who did not provide his surname, joined with Mr. Yasin.

Jamal Abu Houran's journey from proud Syrian citizen and willing military conscript to antigovernment guerrilla followed the wrenching arc of a young patriot rediscovering his country as it erupted in violence around him.

He had been a student of Arabic literature at Al-Baath University in Homs, where he studied Mahmoud Darwish, the Palestinian poet, and was opposed to Israel's and the West's military activities in the Middle East. Two years ago, the army summoned him for compulsory military service. He willingly left behind his books, to be trained in tactics and infantry arms.

As the revolution spread and the government resorted to more violence to blunt it, Jamal Abu Houran's unease with his own army set in. His military conscription was scheduled to end early this year. Then the army extended his tour without his consent and assigned him to lead an infantry squad — part of an emergency policy intended to maintain manpower to fight the growing insurgency.

It did not work. In early April, Jamal Abu Houran called a friend in Homs, who told him that soldiers had raped an 11-year-old girl. His disaffection became disgust.

"I used to think the army was to defend the country and resist and fight the Western projects in the Middle East," he said. "My conclusion, after that, was that we were serving in an army that does not protect its own people."

Using Skype, Jamal Abu Houran contacted an activist from Tal Rifaat who invited him to desert his post and head to a nearby village, where he would be picked up by a waiting car. Soon he was in a hidden guerrilla office. He told the activists there that he had studied weapons well, and asked to join the rebels' fight.

An activist phoned Mr. Yasin, who quickly appeared and stood before him. Jamal recalled his new commander's first words. "You are my brother," he said. "And your blood is more precious than mine."

Jamal Abu Houran's reply set his life on its new course. "I hope God will give me the strength to defend people like you," he said. This was his oath.

He had switched sides.

It was mid-April. Mr. Yasin, who had recently started his own armed group, had nine fighters, while the army had almost free rein of the Aleppo countryside. One of Jamal Abu Houran's earliest tasks was to recruit. Persuasion too was a means of waging war: the more soldiers the rebels could lead to desertion, the more they would weaken the army and strengthen their own ranks.

"I started calling people I knew from the army," he said. "I convinced 12 people to defect."

As the fighting group grew, Jamal Abu Houran's role and standing rose. He became one of Mr. Yasin's trusted sergeants — leading small teams in attacks and managing the fighting group's armory, where he issued and collected weapons with the discipline and a carefully kept ledger that resembled life in the army that had trained him.

Sights on a checkpoint
By summer, with defections rising and the rebels fighting more effectively, the army's grip had been loosened. The province's myriad fighting groups had pushed most of the government's forces from the countryside. Military units maintained a presence on Minakh air base near Tal Rifaat and at an artillery school near Aleppo.

The main fight had shifted to the city, where many fighting groups, including Mr. Yasin's, had coalesced under the black flag of Al Tawhid, a relatively new brigade that sought to organize and unify the province's disparate rebel units.

With this new structure came more coordination. Mr. Yasin's group began taking turns on the city's front lines.

In mid-August the fighters were rotated back to Tal Rifaat, to prepare for an attack, assigned by the province's revolutionary military council, to destroy an army checkpoint on the northern road out of the city.

Al Tawhid had gathered intelligence for the operation. The checkpoint had two B.M.P.s, Russian-made armored fighting vehicles that supported about 30 soldiers in small buildings. These soldiers were protected by dirt barriers that forced approaching vehicles to slow down and weave.

All of this was watched over by 50 more soldiers in a hospital nearby. Many Palestinians lived in the neighborhood near the checkpoint. The rebels considered these families loyal to the Assad government, which had hosted them for decades. The rebels had been unable to infiltrate the Palestinian turf.

Moreover, the checkpoint was supported by the air force, which could muster helicopters and ground-attack jets. The impending attack would be difficult, and perhaps cost many rebel lives.

Still, the rebels deemed destroying the checkpoint essential. As long as the government controlled it, their routes to and from the city were limited, and the soldiers could screen all the civilians traveling on the road, detaining whomever they pleased.

Mr. Yasin knew of this personally. In July, his father, Jamal, had been arrested by the soldiers at that very spot. He suspected it was because the government knew his son led an armed group; he said he expected his father would be killed. This checkpoint, he said, had to be destroyed.

Early last week, Mr. Yasin left his fighters in their compound to attend a commanders' meeting. He ordered them to be ready for the attack when he came back. He returned before midnight and said the attack had been postponed. The fighters were dejected.

The next evening a pickup truck pulled in with a young prisoner. The fighters said the man, whom they called Abu Hilal, was a member of a loyalist shabiha militia, who had been captured and held by rebels in Maara, a small city a few miles away.

Abu Hilal was a lanky man with a shaved head; he flinched and cowered as the fighters crowded around him. He showed signs of extensive beatings. His left arm was swollen with bruises. He limped to the stone steps and sat down, physically and psychologically overwhelmed.

The rebels' hatred for the shabiha militiamen borders on electric. One fighter, Antar, stepped between Abu Hilal and the jeering fighters, to protect him. He led the prisoner inside to the kitchen, where Deeb Meldaoun, the trained nurse who serves as the fighters' cook and medic, had him undress so he could examine his wounds.

Purple bruises covered Abu Hilal's back and left leg.

Mr. Yasin stood in the doorway and invited the prisoner to relax.

"Do you want to take a shower?" he said.

"No, thank you," Abu Hilal said softly.

"You will sleep well if you do," Mr. Yasin said.

The fighters provided Abu Hilal with bread and jam, then cigarettes, and said they would find him an identification card, so that he could travel once they set him free. Gradually they lost interest in him. He crouched alone on the kitchen floor, smoking.

In his office next door, Mr. Yasin seemed thoughtful. He smoked cigarette after cigarette. Abu Hilal had been an inmate in a government prison before the revolution, he said, and was let out of jail to provide muscle to the shabiha militias. He had confessed in the revolutionaries' provisional court to committing a rape and six murders recently, the rebels said. The court had sentenced him to death.

Mr. Yasin said he had opposed executing the man. He had asked the revolutionaries, he said, to release Abu Hilal into his custody so that he might arrange a trade, perhaps a prisoner exchange or a ransom to be paid in weapons.

"He is a bad man," he said. "But let's use him to benefit the revolution."

An unexpected amnesty
That night Abdul Hakim Yasin left for another meeting about the checkpoint attack. Jamal Abu Houran issued weapons and ammunition. The fighters prayed.

Mr. Yasin returned in a rush, honking his truck's horn. He shouted that his father had called and said he had been unexpectedly let out from prison. They needed to rush to retrieve him. The men cheered, climbed onto their trucks and sped south toward Aleppo.

In the lead truck, Mr. Yasin repeatedly tried to call a friend he had sent ahead in civilian clothes in an empty freight truck. He was expecting a trick, and wanted the lead driver to ensure that his father actually was free and there was no trap. Then the fighters could drive in.

At the outskirts of the city, he reached the other man, who reported that he was with Jamal Yasin, driving north.

For a moment, Mr. Yasin seemed less the guerrilla commander than a son. He ended the call. He drove in silence, letting the news sink in. Then he spoke. "God is great," he said.

In the darkness of the abandoned road, the other truck approached and stopped. Jamal Yasin climbed out. He was a straight-backed and squarely built man with a shaved head. He looked unhurt.

The fighters hurried him to the front seat of the first pickup truck, where he sat beside his son for the drive to Tal Rifaat.

Jamal Yasin said he had not been tortured. But the prison cell was tiny and so overcrowded that he almost could not sleep.

Abdul Hakim Yasin admitted to his worry. "I was 99 percent sure it was an ambush," he said.

His father listened, then gently admonished his son. "You really think if it was an ambush I would call you?" he said. "Even if they were slitting my throat?"

"Daddy, I swear to God I am under big pressure," Abdul Hakim said.

"Take it easy, my son, there is no stress," the father answered.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on August 21, 2012, 01:29:03 AM
Part 2

They should have tried to hit the truck with a rocket or something to try to set it off when it didn't blow.
QuoteA long-planned attack
Abdul Hakim Yasin dropped off his father at his brother's home in Tal Rifaat. The fighters stood outside, exhilarated at the reunion, shouting thanks to God. Mr. Yasin drew his pistol and emptied it into the night sky. He was grinning.

"Let's go," he said.

There was still a checkpoint to attack. First Mr. Yasin wanted to celebrate. Back at the base, he gave his fighters ice cream. The gunmen savored their treat, praising the good fortune that had surprised them all.

"I thought I might never see my father again," Mr. Yasin told them.

He excused himself and returned to his office to meet a fellow commander to discuss the last details of the impending attack. The two men huddled over a hand-drawn map.

The attack would begin shortly, Mr. Yasin said, timed to begin about an hour before dawn, when he expected most of the government soldiers to be asleep. The fighters returned to prayers, or snatching bits of rest.

Abu Hilal, the prisoner, huddled against the wall, watching.

Just before leaving, he was led outside blindfolded and put into the back seat of one of the pickup trucks. "Tonight we will do the exchange," Mr. Yasin said.

He quickly walked through a large hole cut in the compound's back wall and approached a flatbed truck. The bed held a stack of thick pipes packed with homemade explosives. Electrical wires protruded from their back ends, all of them joined in a trunk line. This was a truck bomb, wired to detonate remotely.

"Three hundred kilograms," Mr. Yasin said.

He revealed more of his plan. The rebels lacked the heavy weapons to take the checkpoint in a head-on fight. So several of them would dress as civilians, move the truck bomb near the checkpoint and set it off. This would be the signal for an assault over the ground.

There was one problem. The Lions of Tawhid said they did not believe in using their fighters as suicide bombers.

Two fighters poured fuel into the truck's gas tank while Mr. Meldaoun, the nurse, snipped branches from shrubs and stacked them on the bomb, hiding it from view.

The real plan was beginning to emerge. It involved the prisoner, Abu Hilal. The assurances that he would be released had been a deception. The fighters intended to put him behind the wheel of the truck bomb near the checkpoint and tell him to drive forward in a prisoner exchange.

Adel Meldaoun, a cement worker who serves as one of Mr. Yasin's deputies and is the nurse's brother, started the flatbed truck and swung it off the dirt path onto the main road; the pickup trucks had already driven away, packed with gunmen.

"Halab," Mr. Meldaoun said, using Aleppo's ancient Arabic name.

He stepped on the gas to catch up with his commander. The convoy was gone, with Abu Hilal in one of the seats, blindfolded, rushing toward an almost certain death.

The game of fate
Shortly after sunrise, the fighters returned. They trickled back in, clean and unbloodied. They did not look as if they had fought. A few shook their heads, grimaced and made their way inside to return their weapons to Jamal Abu Houran.

Their commander pulled up and stepped out of the truck. His face was long, his eyes tired. The waiting fighters did not approach him. At last he explained. "We failed," he said.

They had arrived near the checkpoint, he said. All appeared perfect for the attack. Most of the soldiers were asleep. A few sat outside at a table, playing cards. His fighters took their positions and the final act ran its course.

"We told Abu Hilal, 'Go, drive that way, your father is waiting for you there, don't do any bad things in the future,' " Hakim said. "And he was so happy, and he drove

Abu Hilal stopped the truck at the checkpoint. Abdul Hakim Yasin pushed the button on the remote detonator, ready for the flash and thunderclap of more than 650 pounds of explosives. It would be the signal for his fighters to move forward and mop up.

Nothing happened.

He pushed the button again.

The truck did not explode.

Mr. Yasin suspected that the checkpoint was equipped with a jammer that blocked the signal.

Now he sat in his office, disappointed at the failure, amazed that his own family remained intact. He was exhausted. Everyone he had expected to die — his father, his prisoner, the soldiers at the checkpoint — was alive.

"It is," he said, "the game of fate."

The urban standoff
A few hours later, back in camouflage, Abdul Hakim Yasin led his fighters to Aleppo. Their assignment at the checkpoint had ended; they were due back at the front lines.

The commander steered wide of the checkpoint. He chose another, longer route, driving with the trucks spread out and at headlong speeds, to limit exposure to attack helicopters and jets.

Once within the city, the trucks weaved through neighborhoods until reaching a cluster of buildings under rebel control. They hid the vehicles in the shade of trees and walked briskly inside, moving into an apartment abandoned by a fleeing police captain. It was a place to stay until dark.

There they watched the government's televised news; the presenter told of a bomb attack in Damascus, the capital. Reclining on the police captain's couch, barefoot and drowsy after a night without sleep, Mr. Yasin was amused. His humor had returned. He chuckled. "Maybe Abu Hilal drove all the way to Damascus," he said.

His fighters were rummaging through the apartment. One found the remote control for the air-conditioner, and turned it on. Others rummaged through the family's collection of bootleg DVDs. More packed up books to take home. Another cooked a meal on the captain's stove, and served his commander tea in the captain's cups.
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A fighter came to Mr. Yasin. He had found the captain's wedding album. Mr. Yasin flipped through it slowly, page by page, stopping when he saw women in the bridal party wearing clothes that clashed with his traditional rural tastes.

"That dress is too short for me," he said.

Soon he was asleep on his enemy's couch, resting for his next mission from Al Tawhid.

Outside, as the fighters dozed, waiting to move to the front lines that night, a government helicopter and light-attack jet strafed and fired rockets into the city. Mortar and tank shells exploded intermittently. The men paid it all little mind.

Then the cycle started anew. Mr. Yasin woke before sunset. He was not fasting during Ramadan, so he ate quickly and left for a meeting with other commanders. He returned by darkness with orders and organized his fighters into teams. His fighters in turn distributed ammunition and formed a convoy that soon snaked through Aleppo, toward a city block ablaze.

There, they said, another rebel unit had ambushed a government convoy, disabling vehicles and trapping many soldiers. Mr. Yasin's fighters were to relieve the other rebels and cut off one possible avenue of the soldiers' escape.

As they approached, gunfire ripped by. The convoy turned into an industrial compound, and the fighters hopped off the trucks, parking them against the warehouses, and fanned out.

Mr. Yasin watched, silhouetted by the orange blaze. His enemies, trapped nearby, lobbed mortar rounds at the compound. Each exploded with crunching blasts. He did not flinch.

Another jet showed up and circled overhead. It was invisible in the almost moonless night sky; only its engine could be heard. Soon it attacked, too, diving toward the compound and firing air-to-ground rockets in pairs.

It pulled out, circled, returned, dived and released rockets again. They slammed to earth at the compound's edge.

In the climate of many conflicts, this might be read as a dispiriting, lopsided encounter. The rebels could not see the aircraft. Even if they could, they had nothing with which to fire back effectively. The pilot attacked them at will, aided by the orange flow of the inferno across the street, which illuminated the contours of the compound where the fighters were hiding.

But as the rockets struck, the Tawhid fighters were barely distracted. They were waiting for the government soldiers nearby to show themselves, certain that night by night their foes were growing weaker, and their uprising was gaining strength.

After each explosion, Mr. Yasin, an accountant leading a life and a role delivered to him by war, keyed his two-way radio, and checked on his men. All around him they crouched in the smoky darkness, weapons ready, waiting for orders or for more action against a government they consider already dead.

This story, "Syrian rebels coalesce into a fighting force," originally appeared in The New York Times.

Copyright © 2012 The New York Times
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on August 21, 2012, 03:16:26 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 21, 2012, 12:21:07 AM
Germany is sending a surveillance ship to the Syrian coast. The German news sites are full of handwringing from posters about "participating in a war", that military/intelligence services/the USA are evil etc. It's EUOT^3 :bleeding:

It really pisses me off that even on webpages of rather decent, relatively high-brow, non-sensationalist papers you have a vast majority of posters who think:
- german military is evil
- german weapons are evil
- german intelligence services are evil
- germanaustrianpoliticians are all the same
- IG Farbencorporations are evil
- Amerikkka is evil for being less evil than germany
- mankind is evil (for destroying the planet) still not there yet
- Germany should act in foreign affairs only on humanitarian grounds ("Have we learned nothing from our history!!!???!!") yes, that nazis win when the good guys only act on humanitarian grounds
- criminals should be resocialized (except kiddie-diddlers who should be killed as inhumanely as possible) if possible, and unredeemable kiddie-diddlers should be killed as inhumanely as possible
- we must not piss off Muslims because if you do they show up at your house and try to kill you

fyp...

It's time for you germans to get over that unfortunate episode in the 30s and 40s.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on August 21, 2012, 03:18:04 AM
No you did not fix it. A LOT of Europeans are like what Syt wrote.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 21, 2012, 06:08:12 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 21, 2012, 12:21:07 AM
Germany is sending a surveillance ship to the Syrian coast. The German news sites are full of handwringing from posters about "participating in a war", that military/intelligence services/the USA are evil etc. It's EUOT^3 :bleeding:

It really pisses me off that even on webpages of rather decent, relatively high-brow, non-sensationalist papers you have a vast majority of posters who think:
- military is evil
- weapons are evil
- intelligence services are evil
- politicians are all the same
- corporations are evil
- Amerikkka is evil
- mankind is evil (for destroying the planet)
- Germany should act in foreign affairs only on humanitarian grounds ("Have we learned nothing from our history!!!???!!")
- criminals should be resocialized (except kiddie-diddlers who should be killed as inhumanely as possible)
- we must not piss off Muslims

We killed you all too well in 1945. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on August 21, 2012, 06:17:24 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 21, 2012, 06:08:12 AM

We killed you all too well in 1945.

Nothing makes a country pacifist quicker than raping every woman between the memel and the elbe or double tap nukes.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 21, 2012, 06:19:00 AM
Quote from: Viking on August 21, 2012, 06:17:24 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 21, 2012, 06:08:12 AM

We killed you all too well in 1945.

Nothing makes a country pacifist quicker than raping every woman between the memel and the elbe or double tap nukes.

Yeah, I think the Japanese got off luckier, too.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on August 21, 2012, 06:19:50 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 21, 2012, 06:19:00 AM
Quote from: Viking on August 21, 2012, 06:17:24 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 21, 2012, 06:08:12 AM

We killed you all too well in 1945.

Nothing makes a country pacifist quicker than raping every woman between the memel and the elbe or double tap nukes.

Yeah, I think the Japanese got off luckier, too.

None of those women got pregnant as well.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on August 21, 2012, 07:35:55 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 21, 2012, 06:08:12 AM
We killed you all too well in 1945.

No shit. Die Zeit has currently a column written by an American of German descent who tries to explain some bits about the presidential campaign in the U.S., and why Americans see things the way they do (right to bear arms, social security, social values etc.). He's a bit tongue in cheek, but his position would be a very reasonable and measured one by Languish standards, nowhere near nutjob territory.

The amount of self-righteous anti-American invective he draws ("destrcutive influence of the U.S. in Europe" etc.) is pretty dumbfounding and makes me ashamed.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on August 21, 2012, 07:38:16 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 21, 2012, 07:35:55 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 21, 2012, 06:08:12 AM
We killed you all too well in 1945.

No shit. Die Zeit has currently a column written by an American of German descent who tries to explain some bits about the presidential campaign in the U.S., and why Americans see things the way they do (right to bear arms, social security, social values etc.). He's a bit tongue in cheek, but his position would be a very reasonable and measured one by Languish standards, nowhere near nutjob territory.

The amount of self-righteous anti-American invective he draws ("destrcutive influence of the U.S. in Europe" etc.) is pretty dumbfounding and makes me ashamed.

Nothing makes Germany more Amifreundlich than Russian Tanks. Atlanticists are getting fewer and further between. We have become so used to the benefits of NATO (and the EU for that matter) that we have started taking them for granted.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 21, 2012, 07:46:30 AM
I would have hoped that Germany's "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation in the euro mess would have made Krauts a little more sympathetic.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on August 21, 2012, 07:46:32 AM
I favor a trial separation of America from Europe. We need to see other people.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 21, 2012, 07:57:38 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 21, 2012, 07:46:32 AM
I favor a trial separation of America from Europe. We need to see other people.

Amen.

Since we're doing a 40/60 Atlantic/Pacific strategic shift with US forward deployment of military assets, I'd like to see a 10/90 shift, and see how the Europeans get along with Good Time Vlad by themselves for the next two decades or so.

Ungrateful fucking bastards. 

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on August 21, 2012, 08:02:11 AM
I'd also like to see a better move into Africa. clik clik secure the bloody resources from the chinks clik clik.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on August 21, 2012, 08:16:16 AM
Africa's like Afghanistan times ten. Let the French play kingmaker in the northwest if they want, we should stay out.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on August 21, 2012, 08:23:45 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 21, 2012, 07:57:38 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 21, 2012, 07:46:32 AM
I favor a trial separation of America from Europe. We need to see other people.

Amen.

Since we're doing a 40/60 Atlantic/Pacific strategic shift with US forward deployment of military assets, I'd like to see a 10/90 shift, and see how the Europeans get along with Good Time Vlad by themselves for the next two decades or so.

Ungrateful fucking bastards.

Can I come over to the U.S. then? :(
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 21, 2012, 08:27:42 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 21, 2012, 08:23:45 AM
Can I come over to the U.S. then? :(

Yes.  Yes, you can.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on August 21, 2012, 09:02:10 AM
hey, don't leave me alone here!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on August 21, 2012, 09:07:05 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 21, 2012, 08:27:42 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 21, 2012, 08:23:45 AM
Can I come over to the U.S. then? :(

Yes.  Yes, you can.

:)

I wish one of my sisters would finally get naturalized, so I could apply for a family green card. Not that I would immediately go use it once the years of waiting are over, but it would be nice to have at any rate.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 21, 2012, 09:11:14 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 21, 2012, 09:07:05 AM
I wish one of my sisters would finally get naturalized, so I could apply for a family green card. Not that I would immediately go use it once the years of waiting are over, but it would be nice to have at any rate.

You got any sisters that want to be a US citizen?  I'm good for one marriage of convenience.

There are conditions, of course.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on August 21, 2012, 09:12:04 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 21, 2012, 08:23:45 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 21, 2012, 07:57:38 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 21, 2012, 07:46:32 AM
I favor a trial separation of America from Europe. We need to see other people.

Amen.

Since we're doing a 40/60 Atlantic/Pacific strategic shift with US forward deployment of military assets, I'd like to see a 10/90 shift, and see how the Europeans get along with Good Time Vlad by themselves for the next two decades or so.

Ungrateful fucking bastards.

Can I come over to the U.S. then? :(

We'll even take you to a Pirates game :hug:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on August 21, 2012, 09:15:03 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 21, 2012, 07:46:32 AM
I favor a trial separation of America from Europe. We need to see other people.
I concur.  We should reform SEATO and start a military-economic collaborative with India and such.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on August 21, 2012, 09:15:39 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 21, 2012, 09:11:14 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 21, 2012, 09:07:05 AM
I wish one of my sisters would finally get naturalized, so I could apply for a family green card. Not that I would immediately go use it once the years of waiting are over, but it would be nice to have at any rate.

You got any sisters that want to be a US citizen?  I'm good for one marriage of convenience.

There are conditions, of course.

I have two sisters already married to Americans and living in the U.S., 25+ years (Oklahoma and Pittsburgh). :P They haven't applied for citizenship, though, and don't really plan to.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on August 21, 2012, 09:29:30 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 21, 2012, 09:02:10 AM
hey, don't leave me alone here!

You can't come.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on August 21, 2012, 09:32:17 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 21, 2012, 08:23:45 AM

Can I come over to the U.S. then? :(

We're crawling that way at the same speed toenails grow.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on August 21, 2012, 09:32:49 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 21, 2012, 09:29:30 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 21, 2012, 09:02:10 AM
hey, don't leave me alone here!

You can't come.

:(
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on August 21, 2012, 09:36:29 AM
I'll sign for Tamas.  Don't know why you guys give him so much crap. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on August 21, 2012, 09:40:08 AM
Quote from: derspiess on August 21, 2012, 09:36:29 AM
I'll sign for Tamas.  Don't know why you guys give him so much crap.

Because its fun.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 21, 2012, 09:41:23 AM
Quote from: derspiess on August 21, 2012, 09:36:29 AM
I'll sign for Tamas.  Don't know why you guys give him so much crap.

I don't want to sponsor him, just so he can come over and sell my car to a chop shop.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on August 21, 2012, 09:47:52 AM
Quote from: derspiess on August 21, 2012, 09:36:29 AM
I'll sign for Tamas.  Don't know why you guys give him so much crap.

It's because he's a beet influence.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on August 21, 2012, 09:51:11 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 21, 2012, 09:47:52 AM
Quote from: derspiess on August 21, 2012, 09:36:29 AM
I'll sign for Tamas.  Don't know why you guys give him so much crap.

It's because he's a beet influence.
:lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on August 21, 2012, 10:52:44 AM
 :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on August 22, 2012, 07:27:51 AM
Some haunting photos of the conflict

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/photobooth/2012/08/moises-syria.html?mobify=0#slide_ss_0=1
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on August 22, 2012, 07:55:27 AM
I was hoping for photos of ghosts.  There's nothing "Haunting" about this!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on August 22, 2012, 09:51:05 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on August 22, 2012, 07:27:51 AM
Some haunting photos of the conflict

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/photobooth/2012/08/moises-syria.html?mobify=0#slide_ss_0=1

Meh, they seem more distant, being in black & white.  Like it all happened decades ago.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 22, 2012, 10:27:03 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on August 22, 2012, 07:27:51 AM
Some haunting photos of the conflict

Are they haunting photos, Tim? Are they hauntingly haunting?  Are they?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on August 26, 2012, 05:08:48 PM
Government massacres 320 people in a suburb of Damascus :(

www.msnbc.msn.com/id/48795606/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/#.UDqdh6Mfu54
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on August 27, 2012, 09:49:44 AM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19389028

Helo down. Viking will be pleased to note that in the video, they say 'ALLAH ACKBAR'.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on September 07, 2012, 07:37:07 PM
Photos of rebels just as they are hit by a Syrian tank shell...

http://www.globalpost.com/photo-galleries/planet-pic/5718451/life-and-death-aleppo-photos

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Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 07, 2012, 07:41:20 PM
Damn. 

Shades of the Spanish Civil War.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on September 07, 2012, 08:11:24 PM
Damn.  Stupid tank ruined a perfectly good RPG.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on September 07, 2012, 08:58:00 PM
Holy shit! Amazing photos! :o

Here's a great article.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/07/13686562-the-arab-spring-is-dead-and-syria-is-writing-its-obituary?lite

QuoteThe Arab Spring is dead -- and Syria is writing its obituary

By Richard Engel , NBC News Chief Foreign Correspondent
News Analysis
ISTANBUL – I called an old friend the other day, dialing the number somewhat sheepishly.  He's a senior adviser to the Iraq government and I knew what to expect when he answered.

First, he reprimanded me for not calling enough and hardly visiting. I've been away too long. You can't do that, not to your friends. What's so difficult about calling? he asked.

I apologized, asked about his children, his health, if he's having success in quitting smoking, and offered the only excuse I could think of: "I've been busy with the Arab Spring."
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"The Arab Spring?" he said. "What's that? There's no Arab Spring anymore.  That's over. It is now a big struggle for power."

He may have been acting like an insistent grandmother, but he was right. The Arab Spring is over. The days of the protesters with laptops and BlackBerrys in Tahrir Square are long gone.

Instead, a much bigger struggle is underway, one that goes back centuries that is both a regional battle for dominance and an epic tug of war between Sunnis and Shiites for control of the Middle East and the Prophet Muhammad's legacy.

The front line is now in Syria, where the United Nations says more than 20,000 people have been killed since pro-democracy protests started in March 2011.

But it goes back, at least in very modern history, at least to Iraq – and America shares a large part of the responsibility for reopening this Pandora's Box.

Roots in Iraq
A large factor in the rise of the present struggle came when American troops invaded Iraq in 2003, thus pitting Sunnis against their rival Shiites, who many Sunnis think are effectively infidels who turned against Islamic leaders about 1,400 years ago and have been on the wrong side Allah's path since then. 

For decades, Saddam and his Sunni minority had imposed their will on Iraq, carrying on a 14-century tradition of Sunnis controlling Mesopotamia despite a Shiite majority. Not surprisingly, in most Sunni regions there has little appetite for free U.S.-sponsored elections. They knew they would end up being ruled by their enemies.

And that's what happened.  Essentially, the lasting legacy of America's involvement in Iraq is an Iranian-allied Shiite government that also happens to be one of the most corrupt on the planet. (Iran is the biggest and most powerful Shiite-majority nation.)

The Shiites were, of course, delighted.  I remember the moment U.S. troops left their last base in southern Iraq in December 2011.  The Iraqis changed its name as the Americans rolled out the gate.  It had been called Camp Adder; the Iraqis renamed it 'the Imam Ali base,' after the patriarch of Shiite Islam.

The Shiites – in both Iraq and Iran – won, and won big. 

President George W. Bush, in his now-rare public appearances and interviews, still refuses to acknowledge he did anything to help Iran.  But it doesn't really matter what he thinks.  The 200 million people in the Middle East understand that there is a new reality – and that's what they are battling about now.

Follow @NBCNewsWorld

Iraqi Sunnis are still seething – and sometimes fighting – in their stronghold cities of Ramadi and Fallujah.  They can't accept what they consider the tragedy that has befallen their community and don't understand even now why Washington sent troops across the Atlantic and Indian oceans to help Iran expand a buffer zone beyond its borders.

Enter al-Qaida, a radical Sunni group
Back in the Iraq war days, al-Qaida, a radical Sunni group, saw an opportunity to expand.  Al-Qaida militants flowed to Iraq to help fellow Sunnis fight Iran, Shiites and the Americans who were propping them up.   But al-Qaida got more than it bargained for.  The U.S. troops were tougher than al-Qaida expected.  American forces learned guerilla tactics in Iraq.  They built bigger, stronger vehicles to defeat car bombs and IEDs.  U.S. troops, much to al-Qaida surprise and dismay, moved at night, dropped men from helicopters like spiders and blasted militant safe houses into kindling.

Al-Qaida made another mistake too.  It misbehaved in Iraq and abused its hosts, fellow Sunni tribesmen.  Al-Qaida forgot it was a guest and lost its manners.  Al-Qaida killed Sunni tribesmen because they weren't fundamentalist enough.  The wild-eyed militants flogged Sunnis in Ramadi and Fallujah for minor infractions like taking off their pants to swim in the Euphrates.  It was hardly the behavior of someone who's claiming to help.
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The Americans eventually used al-Qaida's misbehavior against the group, forming a militia of Sunnis who were fed up with the fanatics, often referred to as the "Sons of Iraq."  Al-Qaida lost in Iraq and the Shiite government won.  Iran won, too.

After the Shiites came to power in Baghdad, Iran suddenly had access to Iraq's holy Shiite cities of Najaf and Karbala. Iran increased tourism and business ties with its new Shiite-controlled neighbor.  The majority of passengers now arriving and departing from Baghdad International Airport are from Iran.

Photo Blog: Portraits from the front line: Syrian rebels pose in Aleppo

Syria, Lebanon, Hezbollah
Of course, it isn't tourism that is on the minds of concerned observers of the Middle East. Rather, it is another Shiite government – just to the northwest of Iraq – the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

In fact, the Assad family isn't actually Shiite, but Alawite, a secretive Shiite-linked offshoot that makes up just about 13 percent of the population. There's also a sizable Christian community.  Iran has effectively adopted the Alawites into the family by forging a long-standing alliance with Assad and, before him, his father, Hafez, who ruled Syria from 1971-1990.   

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Quote
A breakdown of religious groups in Syria. Approximately 70 percent of Syria's population is Sunni Muslim. About 3 percent are Shiite, but another 12.8 percent are Alawite, a Shiite offshoot that President Bashar al-Assad follows. Click on the map to see a larger version.

And, moving further west from Syria, there's Lebanon. Lebanon is a mixed basket if there ever was one. It's Sunni in the north, Christian in the middle and Shiite in the south, with each making up about a third of the population.  As any Lebanese person will tell you, it's a volatile mix that has produced a lively culture, fantastic food, attractive people – and recurring cycles of civil war.

Topping the heap in Lebanon are the Shiites, emboldened by their powerful and skilled militia, Hezbollah.  Hezbollah is heavily armed and has thousands of rockets pointed at Israel.  The weapons mostly come from Iran through Syria or from Syria itself.  In addition, Hezbollah runs a powerful social network.  It can collapse the Lebanese government when it chooses. 

France sends aid, cash to rebel-held Syrian cities, source says

So, there we have it. The previously isolated Shiite regime in Iran is emboldened by the emergence of a Shiite-dominated government in Iraq. In reaction, the Sunni world becomes concerned about the upstart Shiite powers, complete with their considerable oil resources and weaponry.

The region, already a tinderbox, becomes primed for a power struggle.

At the same time, there is the matter of religious pride and a sense of being in the right. In the Muslim world, the Sunnis are the big players. There are more than 1 billion Sunnis worldwide – making up 87-90 percent of the world's total Muslim population, according to the Pew Research Center. By comparison, Shiites are a relatively small group, there are just about 150-200 million Shiites in the world, with about 75 percent living in just four countries: Iran, Iraq, Pakistan and India, according to Pew.

For the world's Sunni Muslims, there is a certain confidence, perhaps even arrogance, that comes with having a billion friends.

Arab Spring shake-up
At first, the current unrest was unrelated to the Sunni-Shiite divide. The first eruption came in Tunisia, which exploded in protests in December 2010.  Then came Egypt, Bahrain, Libya and Yemen.

The region's dictators were caught off guard by student demonstrators who had mobile communications that government security forces couldn't track or monitor.  The students could organize flash mobs.  They could communicate directly with hundreds of millions of supporters though social media.
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The Arab regimes in 2011 in many ways were legacies of Israel's victories in 1948 and 1967.  Faced with the catastrophic defeats, military strongmen grew in power.  Over time they become corrupt.  By 2011, most Arab governments were brutal, uncreative and thoroughly uninspiring.

In Tunisia, lawyers, students and women's groups protested in because of the country's secret prisons and because the former president's wife was taking a cut of nearly everyone's business. 

The Egyptian regime was similarly ossified and out of touch.  Hosni Mubarak had been an effective president in his early years and relatively popular.  But by the time protests began in Cairo's Tahrir Square, he was 82 years old, his military cohorts and family had become increasingly corrupt, he had been president for nearly three decades, and he was insistent that his bland son take over from him.

The Arab Spring put the Middle East back into flux – and, encapsulated by the current situation in Syria, put religious divides back in the spotlight.

The rise of religious tensions started in Egypt, where the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood – a Sunni organization –mobilized and easily hijacked the 2011 revolution started by liberals, anarchists, socialists, students, artists and techno-nerds who were joined by millions of the unemployed and disenfranchised.  Sunni Islamists, albeit moderate, took over in Tunisia, too.

But it is Syria that has become the epicenter of the historic battle between Sunnis and Shiites.  And Lebanon will probably follow.

I spoke with a rebel in Syria about a month ago who explained the religious calculation.   

"We lost Iraq to the Shiites and Iran.  We're going to take Syria for us," he said.

Nearly all of the rebels in Syria are Sunnis and the fighting in Syria remains almost exclusively in Sunni areas.  Alawite areas remain generally supportive of the Assad regime and therefore haven't been attacked by the central government.  The worst massacres have taken place in Sunni villages that are surrounded by Alawite towns.

The rebels claim the Alawites want to drive out Sunnis from their areas to make pure Alawite blocks for self-defense in case they lose the war and are hunted.  Although the rebels say they want to create a Sunni-led government, which they promise will be open and democratic, this isn't Tahrir Square anymore.  It's not even close.

Iran-Syria alliance
The Syrian government has long found Iran and Hezbollah to be useful allies. Iran is technologically advanced and offers a big market for Syrian goods. Hezbollah is a sword Damascus can wave over Israel's head, and a way to maintain influence in Lebanon, which Syria claims (with some reason) was historically part of Syria before the horribly planned British and French division of the Middle East during and after World War I.

But war changes the dynamics between allies.  As Assad's grip on power weakens, Iran and Hezbollah's position in Syria grows stronger.  The tail is starting to wag the dog.  Iranian and Hezbollah advisers are becoming increasingly dominant in Syria.

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta spoke out publicly about Iran's increasing presence in Syria last month. 

"There's now an indication that they're trying to develop or trying to train a militia within Syria to be able to fight on behalf of the regime," Panetta said at a Pentagon news briefing. "So we are seeing a growing presence by Iran and that is of deep concern to us."

In Syria, I saw evidence of Hezbollah's influence at an army outpost that the rebels had just taken over. Rebels claimed there were 20 Hezbollah fighters in the outpost.  They said that they occupied their own room and fought to the death.  I saw boxes of unpacked Hezbollah flags.
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It's no longer a situation where Hezbollah is just providing arms and intelligence, but appears to have mobilized and is fighting alongside Syrian forces.

And al-Qaida is also trying to catch up for lost time.  Its leader is dead and Afghanistan and Pakistan aren't as safe as they used to be. Even Yemen is unsafe with increasing American drone strikes.  Al-Qaida trying to do in Syria what it failed to accomplish in Iraq.  Al-Qaida has learned from its Iraq's experience. Sensing an opening, al-Qaida fighters are going into Syria offering money and arms to the rebels, their Sunni brothers.

They are going in politely, or at least as politely as al-Qaida can be.  They are offering rebels cash with no strings attached, at first.  Initial payments tend to be small, around $5,000.  It is tiny sum in a war zone, but enough to give strapped rebel units a taste of what's to come. They also have RPGs, the weapon rebel commanders seem to value above all others.

After taking a few payments, according to rebels who've seen this process, al-Qaida fighters – from Algeria, Iraq, Libya, Chechnya and other countries – ask that the rebels receive some of their men.  An increasingly number of rebels commanders are taking the deal, even though they worry what al-Qaida could ask for in the future.

They reason that it's better to take the support than die with nothing. Without American troops to worry about – not even drones – Syria could prove to be a far better base for al-Qaida than Iraq ever was.

What's next?
What happens if the Washington continues to watch from afar?

Well, Syria is likely to become an even bigger battleground for a proxy war between Hezbollah, Sunni rebels, government troops, Iran and al-Qaida. And once Syria collapses – or even before – Lebanon could ignite as well.

My Iraqi friend was right. The Arab Spring no longer exists.   
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on September 13, 2012, 10:12:54 PM
The FSA rebels react to the sound of a jet:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uX48NwudHOU (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uX48NwudHOU)


Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on September 14, 2012, 08:18:06 AM
Quote from: citizen k on September 13, 2012, 10:12:54 PM
The FSA rebels react to the sound of a jet:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uX48NwudHOU (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uX48NwudHOU)

I don't get it.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on September 14, 2012, 10:08:31 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 14, 2012, 08:18:06 AM
Quote from: citizen k on September 13, 2012, 10:12:54 PM
The FSA rebels react to the sound of a jet:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uX48NwudHOU (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uX48NwudHOU)

I don't get it.

Because there is no editorial control, people put crap up on youtube, 95% of it is just that; other people then posts links to said crap, without engaging brain as to what is says or means or it's actual significance.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DontSayBanana on September 14, 2012, 10:30:42 AM
Well, let's see.  There's a jet overhead.  Instead of taking cover, the dude glances over at the area the sound's coming from, and then goes right back to talking to the camera.  What a wonderful sense of self-preservation these FSA guys have.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on September 17, 2012, 02:40:04 AM
I don't think anyone's surprised by this, but it doesn't portend anything good.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/sep/16/iran-middleeast
Quote
Iran confirms it has forces in Syria and will take military action if pushed

Army commander gives clear sign of Tehran's continuing support for al-Assad's regime but denies troops signify military presence


    Ian Black, Middle East editor
    guardian.co.uk, Sunday 16 September 2012 17.55 BST   



Iran has confirmed for the first time that forces from its revolutionary guards corps are in Syria helping Bashar al-Assad's government crush rebels, and warned that it would get involved militarily if its Arab ally came under attack.

In a clear public signal of Tehran's continuing support for Assad, the commander of the Islamic republic's elite military formation said that "a number" of members of the IRGC's Qods force were in Syria, though General Mohammad Ali Jafari gave no further details and claimed this did not constitute "a military presence".

It was a surprisingly candid response to persistent claims by western countries, the Syrian opposition and Israel that Iran is actively helping the regime fight its enemies in the 18th month of a bloody war. Lakhdar Brahimi, the veteran Algerian diplomat who replaced Kofi Annan as UN envoy to Syria earlier this month, met Assad in Damascus on Saturday but warned afterwards that any progress would be slow and halting given the yawning gap between government and opposition. "The crisis is dangerous and getting worse, and it is a threat to the Syrian people, the region and the world," said Brahimi.

Reports from Syria on Sunday described government forces fighting rebels amid shelling and sniper fire in Damascus and Aleppo, as well as in Homs and Deir ez-Zor. The Local Coordination Committees, an activist network, reported 103 dead. Opposition activists reported 115 people killed on Saturday. According to the UN some 20,000 people have been killed. Opposition sources say the figure is closer to 30,000.

Jafari's admission underlines the way in which the Syrian uprising has become enmeshed in regional and international rivalries. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey are arming Syrian rebel groups, while the US, Britain and France have called for Assad to go but are offering only limited and non-lethal backing to the armed opposition. Russia and China have repeatedly blocked action against Syria at the UN.

The Qods force includes elements of special forces, intelligence-gathering and aid, and answers to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It has been accused of planning attacks inside Iraq since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. Jafari said the IRGC was providing "intellectual and advisory help" to Syria.

British officials say the IRGC has provided riot control equipment and technical advice on how to crush dissent, for example on how to flood areas with security forces. Iran is also providing support to improve the Syrian regime's intelligence-gathering capabilities and help to monitor protesters' use of the internet and mobile phone network, including text messaging.

Iran is said to have been dismayed at the heavy-handed way its long-standing Arab ally responded when the unrest began in March 2011, contrasting it with its relatively more sophisticated response to protests that followed its own disputed presidential election in 2009.

"If Syria came under military attack, Iran would also give military support but it ... totally depends on the circumstances," AFP reported Jafari as saying at rare press conference in Tehran. The general also said the Strait of Hormuz, the channel at the mouth of the Gulf through which a third of the world's traded oil passes, would be a legitimate target for Iran should it be attacked. "If war occurs in the region and the Islamic republic is involved, it is natural that the Strait of Hormuz as well as the energy [market] will face difficulties. "The US has many vulnerabilities around Iran, and its bases are within the range of the guards' missiles. We have other capabilities as well, particularly when it comes to the support of Muslims for the Islamic republic," he said.

In Damascus, Brahimi also met Syrian opposition figures who are still tolerated by the regime. "We told Mr Brahimi ... of our support for his efforts to resolve the crisis by ending the violence and killings, providing medical care and releasing political prisoners," said Hassan Abdel Azim, spokesman for the National Coordination Committee for Democratic Change.

But the head of the Free Syrian Army's military council in Aleppo, Colonel Abdel Jabar al-Oqaidi, predicted that the envoy's mission would fail, like Annan's, because he had nothing to offer people who were fighting for their freedom, al-Arabiya TV reported.

Syria's state news agency Sana quoted Assad as telling Brahimi that the success of his mission hinged on "pressuring countries which finance and train the terrorists, and which traffic weapons to Syria, to stop these actions."

In Istanbul, Tariq al-Hashimi, the fugitive Iraqi vice-president, said in interview that the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki was failing to stop ammunitions and armaments reaching Syrian government forces. "My country is unfortunately becoming an Iranian corridor to support the autocratic regime of Bashar al-Assad," he said. "There is no doubt about that."
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on September 17, 2012, 06:25:11 AM
Quote from: DontSayBanana on September 14, 2012, 10:30:42 AM
Well, let's see.  There's a jet overhead.  Instead of taking cover, the dude glances over at the area the sound's coming from, and then goes right back to talking to the camera.  What a wonderful sense of self-preservation these FSA guys have.
It's called machismo.  try it sometime.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on September 17, 2012, 05:18:43 PM
Wow, not a good sign to say the least.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/syria-tested-chemical-weapons-in-desert-in-august-eyewitnesses-say-a-856206.html


QuoteSyria Tested Chemical Weapons Systems, Witnesses Say

The Syrian amy is believed to have tested firing systems for chemical weapons in the desert at the end of August, according to witness reports. The tests apparently took place near the country's largest chemical weapons facility at Safira.
Info

The Syrian army is believed to have tested missile systems for poison gas shells at the end of August, statements from various witnesses indicate.

The tests took place near a chemical weapons research center at Safira east of Aleppo, witnesses told SPIEGEL. A total of five or six empty shells devised for delivering chemical agents were fired by tanks and aircraft, at a site called Diraiham in the desert near the village of Khanasir.

Iranian officers believed to be members of the Revolutionary Guards were flown in by helicopter for the testing, according to the statements.

The Safira research center is regarded as Syria's largest testing site for chemical weapons. It is officially referred to as a "scientific research center."

Hoping for US Troops

Scientists from Iran and North Korea are said to work in the expansive, fenced-off complex. According to Western intelligence agencies, they produce chemical agents such as sarin, tabun and mustard gas and test them on animals.

In recent months, the guards have been replaced and reinforced by more than 100 elite troops from the 4th Tank Division. In addition, power generators and large supplies of diesel have recently been brought to the plant to safeguard the supply of electricity in the event of an attack by rebels, reports say.

But the rebels don't plan to take the site. "We hope American troops will secure the plant," said one former army officer who deserted and joined the Free Syrian Army. "We don't want the regime to be able to use the weapons, but neither do we want them to fall into the hands of radicals after the downfall (of the regime)."

Syria is believed to have one of the world's largest arsenals of chemical weapons.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on September 17, 2012, 05:51:38 PM
I don't see this as a bad sign.  They use gas, they trigger intervention.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on September 17, 2012, 08:46:53 PM
Scary where those chem/bio weapons may wind up once the Syrian govt falls.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 17, 2012, 08:50:07 PM
I find it interesting that the critics barking about Obama not getting more involved with Syria, when it'll turn out the same way Libya and Egypt did--which they're barking about as well.  You can't win in the Muddled East.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on September 17, 2012, 08:52:30 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 17, 2012, 08:50:07 PM
I find it interesting that the critics barking about Obama not getting more involved with Syria, when it'll turn out the same way Libya and Egypt did--which they're barking about as well.  You can't win in the Muddled East.



So why is it surprising that people would attack Obama from every angle they can?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 17, 2012, 09:01:04 PM
Quote from: garbon on September 17, 2012, 08:52:30 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 17, 2012, 08:50:07 PM
I find it interesting that the critics barking about Obama not getting more involved with Syria, when it'll turn out the same way Libya and Egypt did--which they're barking about as well.  You can't win in the Muddled East.

So why is it surprising that people would attack Obama from every angle they can?

Because it's blithely ignoring the real issues of what's going on over there, perhaps?

But Romney's campaign said the Benghazi attack never would've occurred during a Romney Administration, so I'm taking them at face value at that.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on September 17, 2012, 09:05:13 PM
Seems more and more we're seeing that intel warned of attacks on Sept 11 anniversary. This attack in Libya was a terrorist attack, which is what Pres Obama first called it and correctly, IMO. But now the admin had UN Ambassador Rice out there saying it was a spontaneous attack. Even as intel and the Libyan President were saying it was an obvious pre-planned attack to coincide with Sept 11.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Kleves on October 03, 2012, 04:26:57 PM
5 Turkish civilians were killed in a border town in Turkey today by Syrian mortar fire. Turkish artillery responded. NATO has convened a meeting.
QuoteBEIRUT, Lebanon — The Turkish prime minister announced on Wednesday night that Turkey had fired artillery at targets in Syria, in retaliation for Syrian mortar fire that fell in a Turkish border town and killed five Turkish civilians. It was the first instance of significant fighting across the Turkish-Syrian border since the Syrian uprising began last year, and raised the prospect of greater involvement by the NATO alliance, to which Turkey belongs.

"This atrocious attack was immediately responded to adequately by our armed forces in the border region, in accordance with rules of engagement," said a written statement from the office of the prime minister, carried by the semiofficial Anatolian News Agency. "Targets were shelled in locations identified by radar." 

"Turkey, in accordance with the rules of engagement and international law, will never leave such provocations by the Syrian regime against our national security unrequited," the statement added.

NATO said it would convene an urgent meeting on the issue Wednesday. Before firing into Syria, Turkey contacted the United Nations and NATO to protest the killings and express its "deepest concern." Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said she was "outraged" by the mortar attack in Turkey.

The five Turkish civilians — a woman, her three children and a relative — were killed in the town of Akcakale, and their deaths were the first caused by the stray shells that have frequently flown across the border, a Turkish official said. Angry residents of the town marched to the mayor's office demanding security measures, Turkish NTV reported.

It was unknown whether the mortar fire came from Syrian government forces or rebels fighting to topple the government of President Bashar al-Assad. The Turkish response seemed to assume that the Syrian government was responsible.

Atilla Sandikli, the director of the Ankara-based Center for Strategic Studies, said on NTV that Syria was trying to pull Turkey into the conflict, and that the government should react with "utmost care."

The incident ratcheted up tensions that have grown with Turkey's support of the Syrian insurgency and the Syrian government's downing of a Turkish plane over the Mediterranean in June. "This last incident is pretty much the final straw," the Anatolian News Agency quoted Bulent Arinc, the deputy prime minister, as saying.

In Aleppo, Syria, on Wednesday, several huge explosions struck a government-held district, shearing off the fronts of two tall buildings, killing dozens of people and filling the streets with rubble in a square near a public park, according to video, photographs and reports from the Syrian government and its opponents.

At least two explosions, which both sides said appeared to be car bombs, struck Saadallah al-Jabiri Square near an officers' club and two government-owned hotels that residents said had housed pro-government militiamen who had essentially taken over the square. Another explosion struck near the chamber of commerce in nearby Bab Jenine, both sides reported.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the suicide bombings, which came after several days of increased violence in Aleppo, Syria's largest city, that has caused anguish for government supporters and opponents alike. Since Friday, a spike in fighting has brought a new level of destruction and chaos to Aleppo's downtown and its treasured medieval old city. The scale of Wednesday's bombings seemed to deepen the city's sense of alarm and disgust, bringing expressions of horror and bewilderment from people on either side of the conflict.

"Oh, my God, the destruction is huge," an accountant who works nearby, who asked to be identified only by his first name, Rami, said on his cellphone as he tried without success to approach the square, which he said was barricaded by security forces. Back in his office, listening to gunfire still echoing through the area, he wrote on Facebook: "My soul has died and my body is waiting for its turn."

One Syrian activist, who uses the pseudonym Anonymous Syria, wrote on Twitter: "Whoever is behind those explosions is a terrorist if civilians were killed. Whether it is the regime, Al-Nusra brigade" — a Qaeda-affiliated insurgent group — "or the Free Syrian Army."

In the square, men simply shouted obscenities and cursed "the terrorists' fathers." Their voices could be heard in the background as another man videotaped the bomb scene for a pro-government YouTube channel, panning over the corpses of two men in crisp camouflage uniforms who he said were would-be suicide bombers killed by security forces.

Even the Tawhid Brigade, the branch of the insurgent Free Syrian Army that on Friday declared a "decisive battle" for the city, disavowed the attack. Jebhat al-Nusra, the armed movement that has claimed responsibility for similar attacks, issued no statement. The government blamed its opponents and said civilians were among the dead. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which is based in Britain and relies on a network of observers inside Syria, said most of the dead were from the security forces and the explosions went off after clashes between gunmen and guards at the officers' club.

Citing medical sources, the Observatory said 40 people were killed and 90 wounded. The Syrian government said at least 34 people died.

A spokesman for the Tawhid Brigade, which claims to coordinate insurgent battalions in in Aleppo, said the bombings were mysterious and suggested that they were "orchestrated by the regime," an idea often floated by antigovernment fighters after similar bombings without specific evidence.

But an antigovernment activist from Aleppo who is currently in Beirut praised the attack, calling it a "strong strike," perfectly timed to avoid hitting many civilians and probably carried out by an army defector working with the Free Syrian Army. The activist, who goes by the name Abo Abdo, said it was not in security forces' interest to kill the pro-government militiamen, or shabiha, who had dominated the area. "They need shabiha," he said.

Abo Abdo said two hotels on the square, the Siahi (Tourist) and the Qalaa (Castle), had been taken over by the shabiha about two months ago, when major fighting began in Aleppo, turning the square into an area where protesters dared not go.

One female activist wrote on Facebook: "When I used to pass by this place wearing stylish clothes, curious eyes used to chase me. The area was full of shabiha, informers and intelligence." But she added that the ogling was preferable to wholesale destruction, writing, "Oh God, I miss those days."

Sham Daoud, a Syrian antigovernment activist living in Paris, wrote in a message on Facebook: "I don't understand anything anymore. There is no excuse for such an operation, whoever did it, and this is not called a struggle against the regime or a war. This is, in very simple terms, called terrorism."

An antigovernment group at Aleppo University posted a statement online suggesting that the target had been Mr. Assad, who, according to reports in a pro-Syrian Lebanese newspaper, had visited Aleppo and ordered tens of thousands more troops to move there from the city of Hama. But official Syrian media did not mention a visit.

In recent days, a large part of the city's ancient market was burned and fighting spread to areas that had been stable, with fires gutting part of the old city's covered market, rebels attacking the central municipal building and clashes erupting in once-quiet Christian and Kurdish neighborhoods.

The square hit on Wednesday borders a graceful public garden, a downtown district full of hotels and offices, and the Christian neighborhood of Aziziyeh, where many people had sought refuge over the weekend.Activists also reported that the Al Hal, or Cardamom, spice market near the site of the bombings was being shelled. Dozens were wounded and people were trapped there by the fighting, activists said.

The pro-government video on YouTube showed that facades had been sheared off four buildings, two about eight stories high, and two smaller ones between them. On the other side of an intersection, a building appeared to have collapsed. The man narrating the video said that a coffee shop and a cellphone store had been destroyed along with a hotel, and that several senior officials had come to the scene.

The video then cut to the bodies of two men wearing army uniforms.

"Those are the terrorists carrying explosive belts as we can see attached to the hand of this terrorist," the cameraman says as the video zooms in to show a corpse's mouth covered with blood.

In the background, someone shouts: "Film the blow-up device in his hand, film it!" What appeared to be a small metal cylinder was strapped to the man's wrist with an elastic band.

Car bombs and suicide bombers have targeted numerous security agencies in Damascus, but they have been less frequent in Aleppo. During the Syrian uprising, which began in March 2011, Aleppo had been seen as a bastion of stability and government support until February, when two suicide car bombers attacked security buildings.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 03, 2012, 07:07:59 PM
Hopefully this will make the Turks get off their ass and restore the Ottoman Empire.  :mad:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 03, 2012, 07:09:03 PM
Great, another Timmay Murder Boner.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 03, 2012, 07:10:32 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 03, 2012, 07:09:03 PM
Great, another Timmay Murder Boner.
Hey, I can't control your response to my posts.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 03, 2012, 07:14:25 PM
What can I say.  It's a Turkish Delight.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Grinning_Colossus on October 04, 2012, 10:49:55 AM
Turkey semi-DOWs Syria:

QuoteTurkey's parliament has authorised troops to launch cross-border action against Syria, following Syria's deadly shelling of a Turkish town.

The bill, passed by 320 to 129, also permits strikes against Syrian targets.


But Deputy Prime Minister Besir Atalay insisted this was a deterrent and not a mandate for war.

Turkey has been firing at targets inside Syria since Wednesday's shelling of the town of Akcakale, which killed two women and three children.

Ankara's military response marks the first time it has fired into Syria during the 18-month-long unrest there.

Several Syrian troops were killed by Turkish fire, a UK-based Syrian activist group said. Damascus has not confirmed any casualties.

Apology
The Turkish parliament passed the bill in a closed-doors emergency session.
It permits military action, if required by the government, for the period of one year.

However, Mr Atalay insisted the priority was to act in co-ordination with international bodies.

He told Turkish television: "This mandate is not a war mandate but it is in our hands to be used when need be in order to protect Turkey's own interests."

He said Syria had accepted responsibility for the deaths.

"The Syrian side has admitted what it did and apologised," Mr Atalay said.

Zeliha Timucin, her three daughters and her sister died in Akcakale when a shell fell in their courtyard as they prepared the evening meal.

They were buried in a local cemetery on Thursday.

Turkey had called for the UN Security Council to meet and take "necessary action" to stop Syrian "aggression".

However, Mr Atalay said that UN and Syrian representatives had spoken on Wednesday evening.

He said: "Syria... said nothing like this will happen again. That's good. The UN mediated and spoke to Syria."

The UN Security Council drafted a resolution on Thursday condemning the Syrian shelling "in the strongest terms", calling it a "violation of international law".

However, Russia, Syria's main ally, has blocked the text and instead proposed one that does not refer to international law, and which calls on all parties to "exercise restraint".

Nato has held an urgent meeting to support Turkey, demanding "the immediate cessation of such aggressive acts against an ally".

The US, the UK, France and the European Union have already condemned Syria's actions.

The BBC's Jim Muir in Beirut says neither Turkey nor Syria wants this to develop into a war. He says there is no appetite in Nato or the West for military conflict and that it is noticeable how conciliatory Syria has been since the news of the shelling broke.

Many social media users in Turkey have been reacting strongly against the possibility of war with Syria.

Hashtags such as #notowar drew a lot of attention.

One user, coymak, tweeted: "There is no victory in war, only victory is the happiness in the eye of the children when it is ended!"

There were many tweets referring to the call for an anti-war rally in central Istanbul on Thursday evening.

In Syria itself as many as 21 members of Syria's elite Republican Guards have been killed in an explosion and firefight in the Qudsaya district of Damascus, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) told the BBC.

The SOHR is one of the most prominent organisations documenting and reporting incidents and casualties in the Syrian conflict. The group says its reports are impartial, though its information cannot be independently verified.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19830928 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19830928)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 04, 2012, 10:56:59 AM
Kinda wonder what the mood is on the street in Turkey.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on October 04, 2012, 12:24:36 PM
QuoteBut Deputy Prime Minister Besir Atalay insisted this was a deterrent and not a mandate for war.

I wonder what Turkey is waiting for?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on October 04, 2012, 01:14:55 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 04, 2012, 12:24:36 PM
QuoteBut Deputy Prime Minister Besir Atalay insisted this was a deterrent and not a mandate for war.

I wonder what Turkey is waiting for?

The cranberry sauce.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 04, 2012, 01:16:02 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on October 04, 2012, 01:14:55 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 04, 2012, 12:24:36 PM
QuoteBut Deputy Prime Minister Besir Atalay insisted this was a deterrent and not a mandate for war.

I wonder what Turkey is waiting for?

The cranberry sauce.

:lol: Goddamned indentations from the can make it look creepy.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Queequeg on October 04, 2012, 02:55:20 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on October 03, 2012, 07:07:59 PM
Hopefully this will make the Turks get off their ass and restore the Ottoman Empire.  :mad:
A lot of people would have mixed feelings about that. (http://www.genocide-museum.am/eng/img/Collection-of-the-Armenian-Genocide-Museum&Institute-Archives/10.jpg)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sophie Scholl on October 04, 2012, 03:01:37 PM
Quote from: Queequeg on October 04, 2012, 02:55:20 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on October 03, 2012, 07:07:59 PM
Hopefully this will make the Turks get off their ass and restore the Ottoman Empire.  :mad:
A lot of people would have mixed feelings about that. (http://www.genocide-museum.am/eng/img/Collection-of-the-Armenian-Genocide-Museum&Institute-Archives/10.jpg)
Probably not as many as there would have been though.  Just saying.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 04, 2012, 03:17:06 PM
:pinch:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on October 04, 2012, 03:29:26 PM
Quote from: Queequeg on October 04, 2012, 02:55:20 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on October 03, 2012, 07:07:59 PM
Hopefully this will make the Turks get off their ass and restore the Ottoman Empire.  :mad:
A lot of people would have mixed feelings about that. (http://www.genocide-museum.am/eng/img/Collection-of-the-Armenian-Genocide-Museum&Institute-Archives/10.jpg)

Are you saying that you cannot have an Ottoman Empire without repeating the Armenian Genocide? The entire point of the Armenian Genocide is that it worked. There are no more Armenians on the Ottoman side of the border. Just like there are no more Greeks.

There are many good reasons to not have a new ottoman empire, preventing the mass murder of armenians and greeks isn't one of them.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 05, 2012, 02:20:42 AM
:menace:
Quote
Turkish tanks are waiting at the Syrian border, "waiting for orders from Ankara."

http://stream.wsj.com/story/world-stream/SS-2-44156/SS-2-65014/?mod=wsj_streaming_world-stream
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 05, 2012, 02:28:26 AM
I have been thinking.

Parallels with the 1930s are abound.

One of the things during the late 30s was there it seemed like a good idea to have agressive strong countries reclaim some of their old possessions, in the name of stability.

Isn't the apparent silent approval to have Turkey do as he wishes with Syria the same phenomenom? Will it have similar consequences?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on October 05, 2012, 02:28:29 AM
Can someone in the Greater English Pacific Prosperity Sphere please punch Timmy for me? Thanks.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 05, 2012, 02:34:55 AM
Quote from: Syt on October 05, 2012, 02:28:29 AM
Can someone in the Greater English Pacific Prosperity Sphere please punch Timmy for me? Thanks.

why?  :huh:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on October 05, 2012, 11:56:18 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 05, 2012, 02:28:26 AM
I have been thinking.

Parallels with the 1930s are abound.

One of the things during the late 30s was there it seemed like a good idea to have agressive strong countries reclaim some of their old possessions, in the name of stability.

Isn't the apparent silent approval to have Turkey do as he wishes with Syria the same phenomenom? Will it have similar consequences?
The only apparent approval we see is mostly coming from Tim.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 05, 2012, 01:33:15 PM
It also has my approval as well. Turkey>taliban-like fucktards.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 05, 2012, 01:37:10 PM
:o  Hungarian supporting Ottomans?  Are events from 500 years ago ancient history to you?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 05, 2012, 01:38:20 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 05, 2012, 01:37:10 PM
:o  Hungarian supporting Ottomans?  Are events from 500 years ago ancient history to you?

Of course not.  That's the problem with fruity ass Europeans;  they take shit like that seriously, like it happened yesterday.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Maximus on October 05, 2012, 01:40:49 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 05, 2012, 02:28:26 AM
One of the things during the late 30s was there it seemed like a good idea to have agressive strong countries reclaim some of their old possessions, in the name of stability.
:unsure: Can you give an example?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 05, 2012, 01:42:49 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 05, 2012, 01:37:10 PM
:o  Hungarian supporting Ottomans?  Are events from 500 years ago ancient history to you?

I am taking the lesser evil, plus my Magyar-istic motivation is a bit more complex than that: division of the two multi-ethnic states, which weren't great by any stretch of the word but provided stability to powder kegs, was a pretty bad idea. Seeing that partially remedied would be nice.

Also Turkey is better than Saudis or Iranians.

Or not. Hence my point. Maybe me and others thinking like this performing the same mistake the Hitler-apologists did. Especially since I have a pretty low opinion on Erdogan.

I am going to drink more whiskey now.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 05, 2012, 08:47:14 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 05, 2012, 02:28:26 AM
I have been thinking.

Parallels with the 1930s are abound.

One of the things during the late 30s was there it seemed like a good idea to have agressive strong countries reclaim some of their old possessions, in the name of stability.

Isn't the apparent silent approval to have Turkey do as he wishes with Syria the same phenomenom? Will it have similar consequences?

Who cares?  It'd be fun to watch.  I'd like to see a major military action that doesn't involve the US for once.  Let someone else play in the sand box for a while.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 05, 2012, 09:01:08 PM
 :hmm:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/ML_SYRIA?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-10-05-13-37-31
QuoteOn Friday, a Syrian mortar round again hit inside Turkey, causing no injuries, and Turkish troops returned fire, the state-run news agency Anadolu said.

In the past, Turkey did not respond to stray Syrian shells, but Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan suggested Friday that those days are over. "I once again call on Assad's regime and its supporters: Do not try to test Turkey's patience, do not try to test Turkey's limits," Erdogan said.

Earlier in the day, Turkey had deployed more troops on its border with Syria.


http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Oct-05/190289-turkey-pm-says-syria-will-pay-price-if-it-strikes-again.ashx#ixzz28TtVchnw
(The Daily Star :: Lebanon News :: http://www.dailystar.com.lb)
Quote
Turkey warns Syria more strikes would be fatal mistake
October 05, 2012 10:30 PM
By Ece Toksabay
Reuters


ISTANBUL: Turkey's prime minister said on Friday his country did not want war but warned Syria not to make a "fatal mistake" by testing its resolve, and its army retaliated for a third day running after more mortar rounds from Syria landed on its soil.

In a belligerent speech to a crowd in Istanbul, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan warned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that Turkey would not shy away from war if provoked.

The speech followed a Syrian mortar barrage on a town in southeast Turkey that killed five people on Wednesday.

Turkish artillery bombarded Syrian military targets on Wednesday and Thursday in response, killing several Syrian soldiers, and the Turkish parliament authorised cross-border military action in the event of further aggression.

"We are not interested in war, but we're not far from war either. This nation has come to where it is today having gone through intercontinental wars," Erdogan said in his speech.

"Those who attempt to test Turkey's deterrence, its decisiveness, its capacity, I say here they are making a fatal mistake."

At least two mortar bombs fired from Syria landed in farmland in Turkey's southern Hatay province on Friday, one of them around 50 metres into Turkish territory, and a military unit responded immediately, Hatay Governor Celalettin Lekesiz was quoted as saying by the state-run Anatolian news agency.

A government official told Reuters there had been similar incidents over the past ten days due to intensifying skirmishes on the Syrian side of the border, and that the Turkish army had been responding in kind. But he said Wednesday's fatal strike on the town of Akcakale had been of a different magnitude.

"If there was gunfire, we returned the gunfire, if there was a shell we returned two or three shells, to warn them and deter them. Until Akcakale we were not very concerned that they were deliberate," the official said, asking not to be identified.

"Wednesday was different. There were five or six rounds into the same place. That's why we responded a couple of times, to warn and deter. To tell the (Syrian) military to leave. We think they've got the message and have pulled back from the area."

Turkish broadcaster NTV said Syria had given the order for its warplanes and helicopters not to enter an area within 10 km (six miles) of the Turkish border and had ordered its artillery units not to fire shells in areas close to the border.

There was no confirmation of this from the Syrian authorities.

...

"If Turkey had been a country that was interested in going to war, when the plane was downed it could have used that as an excuse and flattened Syria," EU Affairs Minister Egemen Bagis was quoted as saying on Friday, referring to Turkey's restraint when Syria shot down a Turkish reconnaissance jet in June.

"Thankfully Turkey's military power today is at the point where it could destroy Syria within a few hours. But we don't have any problem with the Syrian people," Bagis was quoted as saying by the Radikal newspaper.



Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 06, 2012, 03:58:38 AM
So why shouldn't the rebels shell Turkey with mortars ad inifinitum? It is in their interest to harass Turkey, not the military's.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 06, 2012, 07:07:19 AM
Video of a helicopter shot down yesterday.
http://brown-moses.blogspot.kr/2012/10/multiple-videos-showing-helicopter-shot.html

Video of a jet shot down today.
http://brown-moses.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/videos-show-jet-shot-down-in-mohassen.html
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 07, 2012, 06:07:45 AM
Rebels capture an armory

www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDmeX5cy70c
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 07, 2012, 08:52:29 AM
Latest update:  God is still great.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 07, 2012, 02:22:20 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 06, 2012, 03:58:38 AM
So why shouldn't the rebels shell Turkey with mortars ad inifinitum? It is in their interest to harass Turkey, not the military's.

Most modern armies have counter-battery radar they can use to shell the spot an incoming round came from.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 07, 2012, 02:36:40 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 07, 2012, 02:22:20 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 06, 2012, 03:58:38 AM
So why shouldn't the rebels shell Turkey with mortars ad inifinitum? It is in their interest to harass Turkey, not the military's.

Most modern armies have counter-battery radar they can use to shell the spot an incoming round came from.
Damn, that would be very useful in World of Tanks.  :hmm:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on October 07, 2012, 04:25:37 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 07, 2012, 02:36:40 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 07, 2012, 02:22:20 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 06, 2012, 03:58:38 AM
So why shouldn't the rebels shell Turkey with mortars ad inifinitum? It is in their interest to harass Turkey, not the military's.

Most modern armies have counter-battery radar they can use to shell the spot an incoming round came from.
Damn, that would be very useful in World of Tanks.  :hmm:

Recorded in case you run for office.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 08, 2012, 07:59:09 AM
Rebels have a 9K33 Osa! :o

:22 seconds in
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKEGZLmVPiI

Rebels capture a  checkpoint and  tank.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOt8-q9arEQ
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 08, 2012, 08:24:24 AM
Wow, all those RussiaToday videos in the related links of the second video.  :wacko:  Russian propaganda networks, with their useful Western idiots, are up and running again.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: FunkMonk on October 08, 2012, 07:37:29 PM
I like that this is the first war I've seen primarily via Youtube.

This is YouTube's Persian Gulf War.  :P
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 08, 2012, 07:53:29 PM
Looks like the government may be able to retake Homs.

Blood is gonna run like a river.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on October 09, 2012, 12:26:36 AM
I found this map from Hurriyet useful/interesting:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.hurriyetdailynews.com%2Fimages%2Fharita2.jpg&hash=75cd4aed2197f52d1888dd277e0a0f280329cc28)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 09, 2012, 06:05:29 AM
I wonder if Mittens has identified which ones he wants to arm.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on October 09, 2012, 06:09:15 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 09, 2012, 06:05:29 AM
I wonder if Mittens has identified which ones he wants to arm.

I'd arm the beduin and kurdish communists.

but.. also.. find baathist deserters, make your own free syrian army.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 09, 2012, 07:25:02 AM
Quote from: Viking on October 09, 2012, 06:09:15 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 09, 2012, 06:05:29 AM
I wonder if Mittens has identified which ones he wants to arm.

I'd arm the beduin and kurdish communists.

but.. also.. find baathist deserters, make your own free syrian army.

I think the Kurdish communists are on our terrorist watch list.  I don't think they are real communists anyway.  Fuck this shit.  Lets not arm anyone.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 09, 2012, 07:29:14 AM
We need to lead from our behind.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on October 09, 2012, 07:47:45 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2012, 07:25:02 AM
Quote from: Viking on October 09, 2012, 06:09:15 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 09, 2012, 06:05:29 AM
I wonder if Mittens has identified which ones he wants to arm.

I'd arm the beduin and kurdish communists.

but.. also.. find baathist deserters, make your own free syrian army.

I think the Kurdish communists are on our terrorist watch list.  I don't think they are real communists anyway.  Fuck this shit.  Lets not arm anyone.

The reason I picked the first two groups is that they have an affinity with two of the west's most important allies in the region. The Kurds of Iraq and the  Hashemite Monarchy. They don't have an association with the Ba'athist regime and have revolutionary bona fides as well as an ability to supply and defend themselves if armed properly.

I added the Ba'athists for the simple reason that they are very very much worried about being murdered and the Arab Dawn movement from Iraq can help them understand how to behave.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on October 09, 2012, 08:13:35 AM
The Kurds have committed numerous acts of murder and terror against our NATO ally: Turkey. Screw 'em and the PKK.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 09, 2012, 11:19:40 AM
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on October 09, 2012, 08:13:35 AM
The Kurds have committed numerous acts of murder and terror against our NATO ally: Turkey. Screw 'em and the PKK.

that probably because that nato-ally has committed many many acts of oppression and murder against the kurds. At some point it's enough and bad stuff starts to happen.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on October 09, 2012, 12:27:43 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 09, 2012, 11:19:40 AM
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on October 09, 2012, 08:13:35 AM
The Kurds have committed numerous acts of murder and terror against our NATO ally: Turkey. Screw 'em and the PKK.

that probably because that nato-ally has committed many many acts of oppression and murder against the kurds. At some point it's enough and bad stuff starts to happen.
One is our ally and the other isn't.  It would be better to have Turkey as a friend than the Kurds.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Grinning_Colossus on October 09, 2012, 12:42:48 PM
The PKK is actually hostile to the Peshmerga-allied militias and is fighting in support of the regime.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 09, 2012, 01:53:16 PM
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on October 09, 2012, 12:27:43 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 09, 2012, 11:19:40 AM
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on October 09, 2012, 08:13:35 AM
The Kurds have committed numerous acts of murder and terror against our NATO ally: Turkey. Screw 'em and the PKK.

that probably because that nato-ally has committed many many acts of oppression and murder against the kurds. At some point it's enough and bad stuff starts to happen.
One is our ally and the other isn't.  It would be better to have Turkey as a friend than the Kurds.

I seem to recall one helping out against Saddam Hussein's regime in 2003 despite overwhelming odds, and another refusing to allow the 4th Mechanized ID to disembark to open a northern front for the invasion, despite crossing the border on their own to mix shit up with ethnic groups they didn't like. 

Some fucking ally.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 10, 2012, 11:28:20 AM
Turks are getting pissed. Also, the rebels seem to have captured an important town linking Aleppo to Damascus.

www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/10/us-syria-crisis-turkey-military-idUSBRE8990AI20121010
QuoteTurkey warns Syria against cross-border shelling

(Reuters) - Turkey's military chief of staff said on Wednesday his troops would respond with greater force if bombardments from Syria keep hitting its territory.

Several mortar bombs landed outside the Syrian border town of Azmarin and heavy machinegun fire could be heard from the Turkish side as clashes between the Syrian army and rebels intensified along the border.


Plumes of smoke rose into the sky and cries of "God is greatest" rang out between the bursts of gunfire.

The Turkish armed forces have bolstered their presence along the 900-km (560-mile) border and have been responding over the past week to gunfire and shelling coming across from northern Syria, where President Bashar al-Assad's forces have been battling rebels who control swathes of territory.

"We responded but if it continues we will respond with greater force," state television TRT quoted Turkey's Chief of Staff, General Necdet Ozel, as saying.

NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said on Tuesday the military alliance had plans in place to defend Turkey. He gave no further details but a senior U.S. defense official said NATO would likely react if Turkey made a request for assistance.


It is not clear whether the shells that have hit Turkish territory were aimed to strike there or were due to Syrian troops overshooting as they attacked rebel positions. Turkey has provided sanctuary for rebel officers and fighters.

General Ozel visited the family of five civilians killed last week by a Syrian mortar strike in the Turkish town of Akcakale before flying by helicopter to military base further east along the frontier.

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, once an ally of Assad but now one of his harshest critics, said in Istanbul that Turkey's objective was to secure peace and stability in the region, not to interfere in Syria's domestic politics.

"We warned Assad. We reminded him of the reforms he should introduce...unfortunately the Assad regime didn't keep its promises to the world and its own people," Erdogan said.

"Nobody should or can expect us to remain silent in the face of the violent oppression of people's rightful demands."

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said 70 people had been killed across the country on Wednesday, including six rebels in the strategic town of Maarat al-Nuaman, on the north-south highway linking Aleppo to the capital Damascus.

Activists and rebels had said on Tuesday that the insurgents seized control of the town after a 48-hour battle but clashes continued in and around Maarataal-Nuaman on Wednesday.


SYRIANS FLEE ACROSS RIVER

Scores of Syrian civilians, many of them women with screaming children clinging to their necks, crossed a narrow river marking the border with Turkey as they fled the fighting in Azmarin and surrounding villages.

Residents from the Turkish village of Hacipasa helped pull them across in small metal boats.

"The firing started getting intense last night. Some people have been killed, some are lying wounded on the road," said a 55-year old woman, Mune, who fled Azmarin and sat with several adults and about 20 children outside a house in Hacipasa.

"People want to escape but they can't. Many have settled in a field outside the town and are trying to come," she said, describing how she had helped ferry the children over another point in the river in a metal bowl used for wheat.

Doctors and volunteers set up makeshift first aid points on both sides of the frontier. A Turkish ambulance and several minibuses and cars waited to take the more seriously wounded to the main city of Antakya or district hospitals.

"Don't take me across, take me back. I want to return and fight," said one man being carried on a stretcher, his T-shirt stained with blood.

A sharp rise in casualties in Syria in the past month indicates the growing intensity of the conflict, which spiraled from peaceful protests against Assad's rule in March 2011 into a full-scale civil war.

The Syrian government said on Wednesday that an appeal by U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon for a ceasefire was only acceptable if the rebel forces agreed to abide by it too.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi said two previous attempts at holding a ceasefire had broken down when the rebels carried out attacks. U.N. observers at the time said government forces had also violated the truce.

Ban had asked for a unilateral truce, Makdissi said. Damascus replied that the goal of any truce was to prepare the ground for dialogue, not to seek military advantage.

"We requested the Secretary General to send delegates to the relevant countries, specifically Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, because those are the countries that finance, shelter, train and arm these armed groups, so that they can show their commitment to stopping these acts," he said.

As well as the combat along the northern border, government and rebel forces are still fighting over districts of Homs in the west, Aleppo in the north, and other towns and cities.

Damascus has been hit by a series of bombings of strategic buildings that have brought the war close to Assad's seat of power but the rebels have been unable to keep a foothold in the center, although clashes are frequent in the suburbs.

The government has made heavy use of airpower and artillery to halt rebel advances, flattening parts of city neighborhoods.

(Additional reporting by Seda Sezer in Istanbul; Writing by Nick Tattersall; Editing by Angus MacSwan)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 10, 2012, 11:30:50 AM
I wonder what the plan is for Turks.  Are they trying to ratchet down the tensions, or ratchet them up?  Or are they merely being forced to respond forcefully to avoid losing face?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 10, 2012, 06:53:48 PM
Seems like they'd prefer to ratchet it down but the Syrians keep firing on Turkish territory leaving them no choice but to escalate.

Meanwhile, we're ratcheting it up.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/u-s-sends-military-troops-jordan-case-syrian-escalation-panetta-article-1.1179125

QuoteU.S. sends military troops to Jordan in case of Syrian escalation, says Defense Secretary Leon Panetta

Panetta's announcement follows several days of shelling between Turkey and Syria, an indication that the civil war could spill across Syria's borders and become a regional conflict.

BRUSSELS — The United States has sent military troops to the Jordan-Syria border to help build a headquarters in Jordan and bolster that country's military capabilities in the event that violence escalates along its border with Syria, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Wednesday.

Speaking at a NATO conference of defense ministers in Brussels, Panetta said the U.S. has been working with Jordan to monitor chemical and biological weapons sites in Syria and also to help Jordan deal with refugees pouring over the border from Syria.

But the revelation of U.S. military personnel so close to the 19-month-old Syrian conflict suggests an escalation in the U.S. military involvement in the conflict, even as Washington pushes back on any suggestion of a direct intervention in Syria.

It also follows several days of shelling between Turkey and Syria, an indication that the civil war could spill across Syria's borders and become a regional conflict.

"We have a group of our forces there working to help build a headquarters there and to insure that we make the relationship between the United States and Jordan a strong one so that we can deal with all the possible consequences of what's happening in Syria," Panetta said.

The development comes with the U.S. presidential election less than a month away, and at a time when former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee, has been criticizing President Barack Obama's foreign policy, accusing the administration of embracing too passive a stance in the convulsive Mideast region.

The defense secretary and other administration officials have expressed concern about Syrian President Bashar Assad's arsenal of chemical weapons. Panetta said last week that the United States believes that while the weapons are still secure, intelligence suggests the regime might have moved the weapons to protect them. The Obama administration has said that Assad's use of chemical weapons would be a "red line" that would change the U.S. policy of providing only non-lethal aid to the rebels seeking to topple him.

Pentagon press secretary George Little, traveling with Panetta, said the U.S. and Jordan agreed that "increased cooperation and more detailed planning are necessary in order to respond to the severe consequences of the Assad regime's brutality."

He said the U.S. has provided medical kits, water tanks, and other forms of humanitarian aid to help Jordanians assist Syrian refugees fleeing into their country.

Little said the military personnel were there to help Jordan with the flood of Syrian refugees over its borders and the security of Syria's stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons.

"As we've said before, we have been planning for various contingencies, both unilaterally and with our regional partners," Little said in a written statement. "There are various scenarios in which the Assad regime's reprehensible actions could affect our partners in the region. For this reason and many others, we are always working on our contingency planning, for which we consult with our friends."

A U.S. defense official in Washington said the forces are made up of 100 military planners and other personnel who stayed on in Jordan after attending an annual exercise in May, and several dozen more have flown in since, operating from a joint U.S.- Jordanian military center north of Amman that Americans have used for years.

He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk about the mission on the record.

In Jordan, the biggest problem for now seems to be the strain put on the country's meager resources by the estimated 200,000 Syrian refugees who have flooded across the border - the largest fleeing to any country.

Several dozen refugees in Jordan rioted in their desert border camp of Zaatari early this month, destroying tents and medicine and leaving scores of refugee families out in the night cold.

Jordanian men also are moving the other way across the border - joining what intelligence officials have estimated to be around 2,000 foreigners fighting alongside Syrian rebels trying to topple Assad. A Jordanian border guard was wounded after armed men - believed trying to go fight - exchanged gunfire at the northern frontier.

Turkey has reinforced its border with artillery guns and deployed more fighter jets to an air base close to the border region after an errant Syrian mortar shell killed five people in a Turkish border town last week and Turkey retaliated with artillery strikes.

Turkey's military chief Gen. Necdet Ozel vowed Wednesday to respond with more force to any further shelling from Syria, keeping up the pressure on its southern neighbor a day after NATO said it stood ready to defend Turkey.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on October 10, 2012, 07:09:31 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 10, 2012, 11:30:50 AM
I wonder what the plan is for Turks.  Are they trying to ratchet down the tensions, or ratchet them up?  Or are they merely being forced to respond forcefully to avoid losing face?
I agree with Tim.  I think they're trying to lower tensions, but they keep on being fired on which requires a response - such as calling emergency NATO meetings to casually remind the Syrians that the Turks have friends, or Parliament authorising the use of force.  All of these seem to be to be about sending a message to the Syrians, not preparing to actually use force.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 10, 2012, 07:20:06 PM
I am reminded by the fierce rhetoric employed by Johnny Turk during the Khurdish base kerfluffle in Iraq.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on October 10, 2012, 07:21:29 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on October 10, 2012, 06:53:48 PM
Seems like they'd prefer to ratchet it down but the Syrians keep firing on Turkish territory leaving them no choice but to escalate.


I'm pretty sure Erdogan said some pretty choice things about the same situation in Gaza that he is conveniently forgetting now.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 11, 2012, 07:05:14 AM
Lol a paranoid wackjob from Something Awful manage to survive the fighting in Libya and is apparently in Syria right now.

Here's some videos of him from Libya.
http://libyavoices.blogspot.co.uk/
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 11, 2012, 03:43:59 PM
So, Turkish air force forces a Syrian civilian airliner, flying from Moscow to Syria, to land in Turkey, then Erdogan himself announces that they found Russian arms and supplies on the plane (now there is a shocker). Putin's Turkey visit gets cancelled for "different reasons", and Russians say that the forced landing of the plane was illegal.

I keep telling you guys but you don't listen: the present Middle East is what the 1910s Balkans was.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on October 11, 2012, 03:46:10 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 11, 2012, 03:43:59 PM
So, Turkish air force forces a Syrian civilian airliner, flying from Moscow to Syria, to land in Turkey, then Erdogan himself announces that they found Russian arms and supplies on the plane (now there is a shocker). Putin's Turkey visit gets cancelled for "different reasons", and Russians say that the forced landing of the plane was illegal.

I keep telling you guys but you don't listen: the present Middle East is what the 1910s Balkans was.

Does this make the Ottoman Empire the Israel of the 1910s balkans since everybody wants to destroy it?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Jacob on October 11, 2012, 04:50:06 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 11, 2012, 03:43:59 PMI keep telling you guys but you don't listen: the present Middle East is what the 1910s Balkans was.

Is anyone here arguing that the Middle East is not a tinderbox?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on October 11, 2012, 07:51:00 PM
I thought this was interesting and I broadly agree - dreadful headline though:
QuoteWhy Turkey and Syria are Heading toward War
1 OCT 9 2012, 5:21 PM ET 53

Last week my older daughter, who is studying Turkish in college, asked in an email whether I thought there would be a war between Syria and Turkey. I replied, "I don't think so, but it's possible," and then listed some reasons why war could happen. Sometime after clicking "send" I realized that those reasons were so powerful that I should have told her there's at least a fifty-fifty chance of war.

Before explaining what I mean, I should emphasize that I don't think either government really wants war. God knows Bashar Assad has his hands full fighting a civil war, and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan would presumably like to avoid war (particularly what Syria expert Joshua Landis has called the "potential Vietnam" that could result from putting ground troops in Syria). That Erdogan is scrambling to find alternatives to war is evident in his administration's pointedly suggesting this weekend that Syria's vice president would be acceptable as the leader of a transitional government.

But wars are often fought by countries whose leaders didn't really want them. (See World War I.) A common reason is that neither regime feels it can afford to be seen by its people as backing down. But perhaps more important are some other dynamics pushing these countries toward war:

[1] Turkey could decide before long that war is preferable to the alternatives. The Syrian civil war is creating all kinds of problems for Turkey. There's a big influx of refugees, and there's also the Kurdish issue: Many of Syria's Kurds hope to use the civil war as an opportunity to carve out an autonomous or even sovereign Kurdish region in Syria, and Turkey fears that this could prove contagious, emboldening Kurdish separatists in Turkey and energizing longstanding dreams of a new Kurdish nation that comprises parts of Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran. Both of these issues--refugees and Kurdish nationalism--could lead Turkey to conclude that the sooner the Syrian civil war ends, the better. And helping fight it could help end it--especially if Turkey's fellow members of NATO help out.

[2] Speaking of NATO: The fact that a Turkish-Syrian war could draw America into the conflict will make such a war more attractive to some backers of American intervention. That includes some influential Americans (largely, but not entirely, drawn from the crowd that got the U.S. into the Iraq war), but it also includes non-Americans, among them, presumably, the leaders of some Arab states. And the more influential players there are who want a war to happen, the more likely it is to happen.

[3] Syria feels it can't afford to ignore the Turkish border. The casual reader of the news might ask: If Syria doesn't want a war, and Syrian shells that fall on the Turkish side of the border could start a war, why doesn't Syria quit firing shells anywhere near the border? Indeed, why not bow to the Turkish demand for a buffer zone on the Syrian side of the border? The answer is simple: The Syrian regime is fighting for its life, and along the Turkish-Syrian border lies the lifeline of its enemy. The rebels are being supplied with weapons via Turkey and are seizing control of border crossings inside Syria, and their goal is to build, from there, an expanding zone of control. Can you imagine any regime, in the Syrian regime's situation, not fighting to keep control, or retake control, of border crossings, and not trying to disrupt the enemy's supply of arms and ammunition near the point of origin?

[4] Turkey is, in a sense, already at war with the Syrian regime. The rebels aren't just being supplied via Turkey; they're being supplied by Turkey--at least in the sense that Turkey has willingly, even eagerly, turned itself into an arms and ammunition conveyer belt that is stocked by such countries as Saudi Arabia and Qatar. (The US is confining its contribution to "non-lethal" supplies such as communications equipment--which, of course, does in fact help the rebels kill people.) So the Turkish indignation at shells landing on Turkish soil is ironic; Turkey is sending lots more ammo into Syria than Syria is sending into Turkey--the difference is that the ammo Turkey is sending actually kills lots of people. That Turkey's role as a conduit of arms and ammunition isn't a passive one may make Syria even less inclined to keep its fire far from the border.

None of this changes the fact that the Syrian regime doesn't want a war with Turkey or the fact that the Turkish regime can't possibly be sanguine about war with Syria. But in the end these two facts may not matter.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on October 11, 2012, 07:54:29 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 11, 2012, 03:43:59 PM

I keep telling you guys but you don't listen: the present Middle East is what the 1910s Balkans was.

You told us a lot about Elemental too. 

The difference between then and now is that nobody is gonna be too quick to start a giant general war over some shithole that most of our semi-literate populations couldn't find on a map.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on October 11, 2012, 07:56:54 PM
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on October 11, 2012, 07:54:29 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 11, 2012, 03:43:59 PM

I keep telling you guys but you don't listen: the present Middle East is what the 1910s Balkans was.

You told us a lot about Elemental too. 

The difference between then and now is that nobody is gonna be too quick to start a giant general war over some shithole that most of our semi-literate populations couldn't find on a map.

And WWI Gold.

IT IS GOOD, YES?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 12, 2012, 04:02:17 AM
if Turkey goes to war with Syria I hope it turns into a quagmire for them. they need some bleeding.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on October 12, 2012, 06:01:25 AM
We will be concerned when the Russian Navy begins shelling Istanbul. Probably by driving the rusty hulks of its ships into its harbor.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 15, 2012, 06:09:21 PM
Another jet shot down

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkF-loouz6I&feature=plcp

The rebels now have SA-7s

http://atwar.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/15/heat-seeking-missiles-in-syria-the-sa-7-in-action-with-rebels/?smid=tw-nytimesworld&seid=auto
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on October 15, 2012, 07:55:17 PM
If this civil war does anything for Israel, it's that no one is going to be bitching about the Golan heights for a long time.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 17, 2012, 08:59:25 AM
Helicopter blown to smithereens

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTmRZn98XxI
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 17, 2012, 09:01:38 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on October 17, 2012, 08:59:25 AM
Helicopter blown to smithereens

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTmRZn98XxI

Those guys only know like two words
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 17, 2012, 09:38:20 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 17, 2012, 09:01:38 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on October 17, 2012, 08:59:25 AM
Helicopter blown to smithereens

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTmRZn98XxI

Those guys only know like two words
"Oh shit"?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on October 17, 2012, 09:45:09 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 17, 2012, 09:01:38 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on October 17, 2012, 08:59:25 AM
Helicopter blown to smithereens

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTmRZn98XxI

Those guys only know like two words
Yeah, we need to make any assistance to them conditional upon them coming up with something else to say.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 17, 2012, 10:17:07 AM
Seriously, though, I wonder how much support this is costing them.  I'm sure that a number of initially sympathetic people are repulsed once they see these videos, because frankly Western people aren't very understanding when hearing non-stop chants of Allahu Akbar.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 17, 2012, 12:14:50 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 17, 2012, 10:17:07 AM
Seriously, though, I wonder how much support this is costing them.  I'm sure that a number of initially sympathetic people are repulsed once they see these videos, because frankly Western people aren't very understanding when hearing non-stop chants of Allahu Akbar.

and rightfully so, only primitives constantly call out for the gods/spirits/gnomes/etc.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on October 17, 2012, 03:55:41 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 17, 2012, 12:14:50 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 17, 2012, 10:17:07 AM
Seriously, though, I wonder how much support this is costing them.  I'm sure that a number of initially sympathetic people are repulsed once they see these videos, because frankly Western people aren't very understanding when hearing non-stop chants of Allahu Akbar.

and rightfully so, only primitives constantly call out for the gods/spirits/gnomes/etc.

We've evolved into calling out for the names of sports teams.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on October 17, 2012, 03:57:50 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on October 17, 2012, 03:55:41 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 17, 2012, 12:14:50 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 17, 2012, 10:17:07 AM
Seriously, though, I wonder how much support this is costing them.  I'm sure that a number of initially sympathetic people are repulsed once they see these videos, because frankly Western people aren't very understanding when hearing non-stop chants of Allahu Akbar.

and rightfully so, only primitives constantly call out for the gods/spirits/gnomes/etc.

We've evolved into calling out for the names of sports teams.

Hmm.  Maybe we could pay them to yell "Steelers suck!!!" on youtube videos when they blow up a tank or shoot down a chopper.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 17, 2012, 04:12:54 PM
Quote from: derspiess on October 17, 2012, 03:57:50 PM
Hmm.  Maybe we could pay them to yell "Steelers suck!!!" on youtube videos when they blow up a tank or shoot down a chopper.

Kenny Anderson Ackbar!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 17, 2012, 05:50:29 PM
 :lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 17, 2012, 10:58:03 PM
 :lol:

(https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/402955_319772264781539_635593484_n.jpg)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on October 17, 2012, 11:19:09 PM
Is that Tom Hanks's character from Cast Away?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 18, 2012, 06:19:57 AM
Long article about the rebels fighting in Aleppo. Doesn't look good for the post-war situation.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/18/14529598-revolt-of-the-underclass-syria-rebels-carry-fury-born-of-marginalization?lite
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 18, 2012, 06:35:19 AM
The Pre-war situation wasn't exactly great.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on October 18, 2012, 08:30:06 AM
During-war ain't so hot itself.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 18, 2012, 08:39:46 AM
So the article can be summed up with the sentence, "Syria sucks, will suck, and had sucked.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 18, 2012, 04:48:28 PM
Human rights groups say 28,000 people have been disappeared by the government.  :(

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19986806
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 19, 2012, 02:15:39 AM
Got no mortars, use a giant sling shot.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9HiEy-g9Z4
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 03, 2012, 07:42:26 AM
Syrian rebels seem to be gaining ground in the north.

And to no one's surprising, the drawn out and bloody warfare is hardening and radicalizing them.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/02/us-syria-crisis-idUSBRE88J0X720121102
Quote

By Dominic Evans

BEIRUT | Fri Nov 2, 2012 5:29pm EDT

(Reuters) - The Syrian army abandoned its last base near the northern town of Saraqeb after a fierce assault by rebels, further isolating the strategically important second city Aleppo from the capital.

But in a political setback to forces battling to topple President Bashar al-Assad, the United Nations said the rebels appeared to have committed a war crime after seizing the base.

The opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Friday government troops had retreated from a post northwest of Saraqeb, leaving the town and surrounding areas "completely outside the control of regime forces".

It was not immediately possible to verify the reported army withdrawal. Authorities restrict journalists' access in Syria and state media made no reference to Saraqeb.

The pullout followed coordinated rebel attacks on Thursday against three military posts around Saraqeb, 50 km (30 miles) southwest of Aleppo, in which 28 soldiers were killed.

Several were shown in video footage being shot after they had surrendered.

"The allegations are that these were soldiers who were no longer combatants. And therefore, at this point it looks very likely that this is a war crime, another one," U.N. human rights spokesman Rupert Colville said in Geneva.

"Unfortunately this could be just the latest in a string of documented summary executions by opposition factions as well as by government forces and groups affiliated with them, such as the shabbiha (pro-government militia)," he said.

Video footage of the killings showed rebels berating the captured men, calling them "Assad's dogs", before firing round after round into their bodies as they lay on the ground.

Rights groups and the United Nations say rebels and forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad have committed war crimes during the 19-month-old conflict. It began with protests against Assad and has spiraled into a civil war which has killed 32,000 people and threatens to drag in regional powers.

The mainly Sunni Muslim rebels are supported by Sunni states including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and neighboring Turkey. Shi'ite Iran remains the strongest regional supporter of Assad, who is from the Alawite faith which is an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam.

STRATEGIC BLOW

Saraqeb lies at the meeting point of Syria's main north-south highway, linking Aleppo with Damascus, and another road connecting Aleppo to the Mediterranean port of Latakia.

With areas of rural Aleppo and border crossings to Turkey already under rebel control, the loss of Saraqeb would leave Aleppo city further cut off from Assad's Damascus powerbase.

Any convoys using the highways from Damascus or the Mediterranean city of Latakia would be vulnerable to rebel attack. This would force the army to use smaller rural roads or send supplies on a dangerous route from Al-Raqqa in the east, according to the Observatory's director, Rami Abdelrahman.

In response to the rebels' territorial gains, Assad has stepped up air strikes against opposition strongholds, launching some of the heaviest raids so far against working class suburbs east of Damascus over the last week.

The bloodshed has continued unabated despite an attempted ceasefire, proposed by join U.N.-Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi to mark last month's Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha.

In the latest in a string of fruitless international initiatives, China called on Thursday for a phased, region-by-region ceasefire and the setting up of a transitional governing body - an idea which opposition leaders hope to flesh out at a meeting in Qatar next week.

Veteran opposition leader Riad Seif has proposed a structure bringing together the rebel Free Syrian Army, regional military councils and other rebel forces alongside local civilian bodies and prominent opposition figures.

His plan, called the Syrian National Initiative, calls for four bodies to be established: the Initiative Body, including political groups, local councils, national figures and rebel forces; a Supreme Military Council; a Judicial Committee and a transitional government made up of technocrats.

The initiative has the support of Washington. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called on Wednesday for an overhaul of the opposition, saying it was time to move beyond the troubled Syrian National Council.

The SNC has failed to win recognition as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people and Clinton said it was time to bring in "those on the front lines fighting and dying".

(Additional reporting by Oliver Holmes in Beirut and Stephanie Nebehay in Geneva; Editing by Jon Boyle)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on November 03, 2012, 09:10:58 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 03, 2012, 07:42:26 AM
Syrian rebels seem to be gaining ground in the north.

And to one's surprising, the drawn out and bloody warfare is hardening and radicalizing them.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/02/us-syria-crisis-idUSBRE88J0X720121102

Orwell and Hemingway could have told you that... 75 years ago.

The first thing Fredrick the Great did when he came to power was to publish his Anti-Machiavel, a critique of applying logic and reason to policy. He then proceeded to ignore it and then marched off to war to conquer silesia from the hapsburgs. If we don't arm and support the good guys then the good guys cannot win. I'm always baffled that the arguments from the spanish civil war about not arming the parties in the conflict still have any purchase. Like with guns, if you outlaw guns only outlaws will have guns. If you outlaw arms sales only outlaws will get arms. If the liberal democracies outlaw arms sales only fascists and communists will get arms.

Daniel Pipes admonition to always support our friends in the region keeps tugging at my conscience. In Libya we did just that. Found friends (Chris Stevens did that) and supplied them with arms, training and drone strikes. We did that in Bosnia, found friends (or at least people who wanted to be on our side) armed and trained them and then gave them air support for their offensive and forced Milosevic to accept Holbrooke's terms at Dayton.

One of our fundamental problems in the middle east is that our "friends" find themselves forced to go along with the anti-western bigotry because they have no power. US logistical support (partially through the serbian group Otpor and a "W" Bush era coaching and mentoring project) helped build the organization and structure that launched the Tahrir Square. We then watched as the elections were arranged so that the Muslim Brothers managed to get the president with 25% of the first round vote.

I'd like to add to Daniel Pipes admonition my own, always oppose our enemies. Islamists, Salafists and Arab Nationalists are our enemies, they always have been. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 08, 2012, 06:28:17 AM
Rebel tank attacking govt. tank
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhfZliWeLmM

Rebel arty
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGRaY5CvjJ8

Unexploded FAE
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FoGZXL.jpg&hash=ce72915900ac13b32d1978b938e13b13c4c90be5)

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 08, 2012, 06:41:06 AM
QuoteLt. Col. Henry Blake: [reading a set of instructions] And carefully cut the wires leading to the clockwork fuse at the head.
[Trapper cuts the wires]
Lt. Col. Henry Blake: But first, remove the fuse.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on November 08, 2012, 06:54:33 AM
Allah u Ackbar!

I just can't get enough of that line. I wish they were saying it more often.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 08, 2012, 10:33:52 AM
QuoteWashington has not finalized any deal with NATO to provide advanced Patriot missile interceptors to Turkey despite recent claims by senior officials in Ankara, according to a U.S. official.

"My understanding is ... we haven't had a formal request of NATO" for the U.S.-built missile system for Turkey, State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told reporters on Tuesday.

While the United States has sent Patriots to Turkey and elsewhere in the region in the past, most recently in 2003 during the Iraq war, Nuland said Washington would not make any weapon shipments until alliance officials give the go ahead.

"We will await a formal request, and then NATO will deliver aid. But, we're obviously looking at the full range of things to ensure that Turkey remains safe and secure," she added.

Nuland's comments run contrary to reports out of Ankara claiming a weapons request is being drafted by the Turkish Foreign Ministry for NATO, according to reports in the region.

"Everything will be considered within the framework of possible preparations," Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told state-run Anatolian news agency regarding the request.

Negotiations between Brussels and Ankara over potential military support has ramped up in recent months, as the growing civil war in Syria has already begun to boil over into Turkey.

For nearly a year, government troops and paramilitary forces loyal to Assad have battled their way to a bloody stalemate with rebel fighters looking to oust the longtime leader.

In October, Turkish lawmakers took the controversial step of authorizing military action inside Syria after forces loyal to Syrian president Bashar Assad launched a mortar attack against targets inside Turkey.

Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Besir Atalay told the Associated Press that Ankara's decision should not be interpreted as an act of war against Syria.

Shortly after the cross border attack, Turkey Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan met with NATO leaders to discuss possible action by the alliance against Assad's forces under Article 4 of the NATO charter.

Article 4 requires consultations with all NATO members when a partner nation feels its "territorial integrity, political independence or security" is being threatened by an outside country.

Since those talks, the United States, NATO and Turkey have continued "to look at what other defenses [or] support Turkey might require," according to Nuland. Options which may include deployments of Patriot systems.

To that end, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters that members of the Free Syria Army (FSA), the largest rebel faction in the country, had upwards of 50 American-made Stinger surface-to-air missiles in their arsenal.

The Stingers, which have reportedly been used to take out Syrian fighter jets above the rebel stronghold of Aleppo, could also be used to take out civilian aircraft, Lavrov told reporters during a press conference in Jordan on Tuesday.

"The leaders of the [FSA] have repeatedly said that civilian planes will be a legitimate target," according to Lavrov.

Russia has been one of the strongest international supporters of the Assad regime during the conflict, sending troops and weapons to Damascus since the early days of the civil war.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 08, 2012, 10:36:22 AM
Oooooh, a dare!

QuoteSyrian President Warns Against Foreign Intervention in Syria
By HANIA MOURTADA and ALAN COWELL

BEIRUT, Lebanon — With battles flaring from the north to the south of his country, President Bashar al-Assad was quoted on Thursday as warning outside powers not to intervene militarily, saying the price of an invasion would be "more than the world can afford."

He also indicated that he would not heed Western proposals to leave Syria.

"I am not a puppet. I was not made by the West to go to the West or to any other country," he said. "I am Syrian, I was made in Syria, I have to live in Syria and die in Syria."

A transcript of excerpts from an interview with Mr. Assad was posted in English on the Russia Today television news channel's Web site on Thursday in advance of the conversation's broadcast on Friday.

Mr. Assad's defiance — familiar throughout the months of uprising that have turned to civil war affecting all of Syria's major cities — came a day after the regional consequences of the fighting seemed to assume ever more ominous tones.

For the first time on Wednesday, Turkey, a NATO member, publicly raised the idea of stationing Patriot missile batteries along its southern border with Syria. The move would effectively create a no-flight zone that could help safeguard refugees and give rebel fighters a portion of Syrian territory without fear of airstrikes by Syrian forces.

Within Syria, insurgents escalated attacks on targets within earshot of Mr. Assad's Damascus palace on Wednesday, killing a prominent judge with a car bomb and lobbing mortar shells at a neighborhood that houses central government offices and a military airfield. The assassination of the judge, reported by the official news agency, SANA, was the second high-profile killing of a top Assad loyalist in the Syrian capital this week and added to the impression of an intensifying insurgency in the 20-month-old conflict.

It was not clear when Russia Today recorded the interview with Mr. Assad, who was shown speaking to an interviewer, Sophie Shevardnadze, sitting in a high-backed chair against the background of a carved wooden doorway.

Asked about possible armed intervention, Mr. Assad said: "We are the last stronghold of secularism and stability in the region and coexistence, let's say, it will have a domino effect that will affect the world from the Atlantic to the Pacific and you know the implication on the rest of the world."

He said he did not believe the West planned to intervene "but if they do so, nobody can tell what is next," Mr. Assad said. The price of an "invasion if it happened is going to be more than the whole world can afford," he said, without elaborating.

The interview coincided with efforts in Doha, Qatar, to unify the fragmented opposition seeking Mr. Assad's overthrow. It also came two days after Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain suggested that Mr. Assad could be given safe passage out of Syria as part of a peace settlement.

On Thursday, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which tracks the fighting, said clashes erupted between rebel and government forces in the northern town of Ras al-Ain along the 550-mile border with Turkey.

The rebels had infiltrated the town from two directions and, after hours of fighting, government forces stormed the town and killed 10 insurgents in a battle for the security headquarters in Ras al-Ain. Turkey's semiofficial Anatolian News Agency said two Turkish civilians were injured by stray rounds from the fighting, prompting the Turkish military to send reinforcements to the area.

Anti-government activists also reported fighting in the southern city of Daraa, where the uprising began with peaceful demonstrations in March, 2011. Government troops were said to be shelling southern neighborhoods of Damascus, the capital, while, in the Old City, troops broke into homes to search for opponents.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on November 08, 2012, 10:46:17 AM
Send him this video. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcODE_V-dao&bpctr=1352391098
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on November 08, 2012, 12:30:17 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 08, 2012, 06:41:06 AM
QuoteLt. Col. Henry Blake: [reading a set of instructions] And carefully cut the wires leading to the clockwork fuse at the head.
[Trapper cuts the wires]
Lt. Col. Henry Blake: But first, remove the fuse.

:lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on November 08, 2012, 09:17:45 PM
More video emerges of rebels executing unarmed men and soldiers; these islamists are real good guys.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 08, 2012, 09:44:19 PM
Quote from: mongers on November 08, 2012, 09:17:45 PM
More video emerges of rebels executing unarmed men and soldiers; these islamists are real good guys.

Yeah, let's arm them.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on November 08, 2012, 10:09:20 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 08, 2012, 09:44:19 PM
Quote from: mongers on November 08, 2012, 09:17:45 PM
More video emerges of rebels executing unarmed men and soldiers; these islamists are real good guys.

Yeah, let's arm them.

What could go wrong.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on November 09, 2012, 03:01:11 AM
Quote from: mongers on November 08, 2012, 09:17:45 PM
More video emerges of rebels executing unarmed men and soldiers; these islamists are real good guys.

It's a civil war, what do you expect?

In 1956, a lot of communists ended up tortured, hanged on lamposts, lynched. Innocent people, too.
It is just the nature of the business - the scum gets the greenlight to roam
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on November 09, 2012, 05:08:07 AM
Quote from: mongers on November 08, 2012, 09:17:45 PM
More video emerges of rebels executing unarmed men and soldiers; these islamists are real good guys.
That's what happens in dirty wars.  If you don't fight dirty, you get hung by the guys that do.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on November 09, 2012, 05:39:08 AM
Quote from: DGuller on November 09, 2012, 05:08:07 AM
Quote from: mongers on November 08, 2012, 09:17:45 PM
More video emerges of rebels executing unarmed men and soldiers; these islamists are real good guys.
That's what happens in dirty wars.  If you don't fight dirty, you get hung by the guys that do.

I just told him that
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on November 09, 2012, 07:24:21 PM
Quote from: Viking on November 03, 2012, 09:10:58 AMWe did that in Bosnia, found friends (or at least people who wanted to be on our side) armed and trained them and then gave them air support for their offensive and forced Milosevic to accept Holbrooke's terms at Dayton.
That is not how it's seen in Bosnia, certainly by the Bosniaks.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on November 09, 2012, 07:25:43 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 09, 2012, 03:01:11 AM
Quote from: mongers on November 08, 2012, 09:17:45 PM
More video emerges of rebels executing unarmed men and soldiers; these islamists are real good guys.

It's a civil war, what do you expect?

In 1956, a lot of communists ended up tortured, hanged on lamposts, lynched. Innocent people, too.
It is just the nature of the business - the scum gets the greenlight to roam
Yeah I agree with you and DGuller.  I don't think the ideological content matters.  Civil wars are nasty.

Edit:  As a rule if there's a side you admire in a civil war, normally they've lost.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on November 09, 2012, 07:29:59 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 09, 2012, 07:25:43 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 09, 2012, 03:01:11 AM
Quote from: mongers on November 08, 2012, 09:17:45 PM
More video emerges of rebels executing unarmed men and soldiers; these islamists are real good guys.

It's a civil war, what do you expect?

In 1956, a lot of communists ended up tortured, hanged on lamposts, lynched. Innocent people, too.
It is just the nature of the business - the scum gets the greenlight to roam
Yeah I agree with you and DGuller.  I don't think the ideological content matters.  Civil wars are nasty.

Edit:  As a rule if there's a side you admire in a civil war, normally they've lost.

Well, there's no side I admire in this one, though I was specifically pointing out these people are the wrong ones to arm, it will back fire; my only hope is that it backfires enough that if fucks the Saudis in the arse.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on November 12, 2012, 01:48:35 AM
The optimism about the new Syrian National Coalition is really striking and novel.  The head's a respected, moderate, non-party former Imam of the Umayyad Mosque and the entire leadership are either in or from Syria - there's no exile groups cluttering them up.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on November 12, 2012, 07:16:10 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 09, 2012, 07:24:21 PM
Quote from: Viking on November 03, 2012, 09:10:58 AMWe did that in Bosnia, found friends (or at least people who wanted to be on our side) armed and trained them and then gave them air support for their offensive and forced Milosevic to accept Holbrooke's terms at Dayton.
That is not how it's seen in Bosnia, certainly by the Bosniaks.

That's because I'm referring to the croats.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on November 12, 2012, 07:28:02 AM
This is an apparently serious comment from the thread about this topic on Paradox:
QuoteFortunately, there is still Russia and China around - otherwise, the oh-so-smart western failocraties would have fully destroyed the world already.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 13, 2012, 07:03:24 PM
QuoteFrance Recognizes New Syrian Rebel Group, Hints It May Provide Weapons
By STEVEN ERLANGER and RICK GLADSTONE

PARIS — France on Tuesday became the first Western country to recognize the newly formed Syrian rebel coalition and raised the possibility of arming the group as it begins taking charge of the opposition's role in the civil war.

The French announcement, conveyed by President François Hollande at his first news conference in office, went beyond other Western pledges of support for the new Syrian rebel group, which was officially created on Sunday and calls itself the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces.

Though the United States and Britain have welcomed the rebel group's formation, they have nonetheless held back on whether to recognize it as the legitimate government of Syria for now and have expressed reluctance to provide it with lethal military aid in their struggle to oust President Bashar al-Assad. That is in part because of uncertainties over how weaponry would be used and fears it would fall into the hands of the radical jihadists in Syria who are also fighting to topple Mr. Assad.

"I announce that France recognizes the Syrian National Coalition as the sole representative of the Syrian people and thus as the future provisional government of a democratic Syria and to bring an end to Bashar al-Assad's regime," said Mr. Hollande, who has been one of the most vocal critics of Mr. Assad's harsh repression of the domestic opposition.

As for weapons, Mr. Hollande said, France had not supported arming the rebels up to now, but "with the coalition, as soon as it is a legitimate government of Syria, this question will be looked at by France, but also by all countries that recognize this government."

His announcement came as the rebel coalition's newly chosen leader, Sheikh Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib, a former imam of the historic Umayyad Mosque in Damascus and a respected figure inside Syria, made a broad appeal to Western and Arab countries for recognition and military aid. Foreign ministers of the Arab League, while approving the new group as the "legitimate representative of the Syrian opposition," have not agreed on recognizing the group as a provisional government to replace Mr. Assad.

There are widespread expectations that the new coalition will seek to establish itself as the government in rebel-held areas of northern Syria near the Turkish border, which if successful could attract wider recognition and aid and signal a significant change in the conflict. Mr. Assad has ridiculed the insurgency against him partly because it does not have cohesive control in any part of the country. He has also benefited from the opposition's fractiousness.The recognition by France came as new fighting raged inside Syria and international relief agencies warned that the humanitarian crisis there had worsened in the past few weeks.

A rebel-held Syrian village a few yards from the Turkish border, Ras al-Ain, was bombed by Syrian aircraft for the second consecutive day. And tensions remained high along the armistice line between Syria and Israel in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights area controlled by Israel since the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. Israeli tank gunners blasted a Syrian mobile artillery vehicle there on Monday in response to repeated instances of errant mortar shells landing on the Israeli side.

Anti-Assad activists reached in Damascus, the capital, said security checkpoints had been vastly expanded in recent days in response to fighting between insurgents and loyalist forces in the suburbs. They said it was also becoming more difficult to go shopping or exchange money. In Geneva, the United Nations refugee agency said about 2.5 million Syrians had been driven from their homes throughout the conflict, citing estimates from the Syrian Arab Red Crescent, the principal local partner delivering relief on behalf of international aid groups.

Previous assessments said 1.2 million people had been displaced by the civil war, but even the new figure might not capture the full extent of the crisis.

"People are really on the run, hiding," said Melissa Fleming, the spokeswoman for the refugee agency. "They are difficult to count and difficult to access."

More than 4,000 Syrians fled to Jordan in the past week, the highest weekly outflow there in two months, Ms. Fleming said, in addition to 9,000 Syrians who crossed last week into Turkey. Increasing numbers of Kurdish Syrians are escaping to Iraq, which is now hosting more than 50,000 Syrian refugees, she said.

As further evidence of widening violence, Ms. Fleming said the United Nations refugee agency was withdrawing some of its staff members from the northeastern governorate of Hassakeh.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on November 13, 2012, 07:15:24 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 12, 2012, 07:28:02 AM
This is an apparently serious comment from the thread about this topic on Paradox:
QuoteFortunately, there is still Russia and China around - otherwise, the oh-so-smart western failocraties would have fully destroyed the world already.

A neighbor?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: dps on November 13, 2012, 10:26:46 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 09, 2012, 03:01:11 AM

In 1956, a lot of communists ended up tortured, hanged on lamposts, lynched. Innocent people, too.


Obviously, not enough of 'em.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 14, 2012, 07:57:16 AM
Syrian rebels got their hands on some manpads.

http://brown-moses.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/new-type-of-shoulder-mounted-surface-to.html
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 17, 2012, 03:22:57 AM
Supposedly there are biowarfare labs in Aleppo. One of those could get smashed up in the fighting and introduce a disease to the population and fuck the world without any intent by either side!

http://www.newenglishreview.org/custpage.cfm/frm/13108/sec_id/13108
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 19, 2012, 05:25:55 PM
Rebels capture the largest Army base in Northern Syria.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sruMU301Zk
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on November 20, 2012, 06:53:30 AM
There's discussion whether Germany should send a couple soldiers and Patriot missiles to the Turkish-Syrian border. The discussion is mostly, "ZOMG we can't send soldiers anywhere, ever, we might HURT someone! And war is ALWAYS evil - we can't get involved in that! Also: AMERIKKKA EVÖL!!!"

I may play some of the Bundeswehr scenarios for Combat Mission Shock Force tonight.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on November 20, 2012, 07:57:11 AM
Quote from: Syt on November 20, 2012, 06:53:30 AM
There's discussion whether Germany should send a couple soldiers and Patriot missiles to the Turkish-Syrian border. The discussion is mostly, "ZOMG we can't send soldiers anywhere, ever, we might HURT someone! And war is ALWAYS evil - we can't get involved in that! Also: AMERIKKKA EVÖL!!!"

I may play some of the Bundeswehr scenarios for Combat Mission Shock Force tonight.

Germany got pussified too much.  :(
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: PDH on November 20, 2012, 08:13:10 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on November 20, 2012, 07:57:11 AM

Germany got pussified too much.  :(

They need to send the 2nd Panzer back to invade Greece.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on November 20, 2012, 12:30:54 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on November 20, 2012, 07:57:11 AM
Quote from: Syt on November 20, 2012, 06:53:30 AM
There's discussion whether Germany should send a couple soldiers and Patriot missiles to the Turkish-Syrian border. The discussion is mostly, "ZOMG we can't send soldiers anywhere, ever, we might HURT someone! And war is ALWAYS evil - we can't get involved in that! Also: AMERIKKKA EVÖL!!!"

I may play some of the Bundeswehr scenarios for Combat Mission Shock Force tonight.

Germany got pussified too much.  :(

Our whole school was protesting against the '91 Gulf War (I was 14 at the time). I and three others out of 400+ students refused to go because we were in favor of military action. Our teachers weren't happy, but they respected our decision. We even got interviewed by the local paper.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on November 20, 2012, 12:34:25 PM
Germany these days is like the anger-less Rimmer in Red Dwarf's polymorph:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WgUktfdDy4
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 24, 2012, 05:04:41 PM
Syrians have captured an important army base in the east.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20442157
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Kleves on November 24, 2012, 05:15:53 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 24, 2012, 05:04:41 PM
Syrians have captured an important army base in the east.
Are the Syrians falling back in disorder, while the Syrians are preparing to consolidate their victory?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on November 24, 2012, 05:20:32 PM
Quote from: Kleves on November 24, 2012, 05:15:53 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 24, 2012, 05:04:41 PM
Syrians have captured an important army base in the east.
Are the Syrians falling back in disorder, while the Syrians are preparing to consolidate their victory?
Something just occurred to me:  the Syrians are fighting the Syrians.  Neither can win, so Syria will become the flat Afghanistan.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2012, 05:21:58 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 20, 2012, 12:30:54 PM
Our whole school was protesting against the '91 Gulf War (I was 14 at the time). I and three others out of 400+ students refused to go because we were in favor of military action. Our teachers weren't happy, but they respected our decision. We even got interviewed by the local paper.

91?  The first one?  The no-brainer?   :huh:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on November 24, 2012, 05:29:45 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2012, 05:21:58 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 20, 2012, 12:30:54 PM
Our whole school was protesting against the '91 Gulf War (I was 14 at the time). I and three others out of 400+ students refused to go because we were in favor of military action. Our teachers weren't happy, but they respected our decision. We even got interviewed by the local paper.

91?  The first one?  The no-brainer?   :huh:

Rely on the pacifists to side with the fascist imperialist dictators against the democracies.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on November 24, 2012, 06:53:03 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2012, 05:21:58 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 20, 2012, 12:30:54 PM
Our whole school was protesting against the '91 Gulf War (I was 14 at the time). I and three others out of 400+ students refused to go because we were in favor of military action. Our teachers weren't happy, but they respected our decision. We even got interviewed by the local paper.

91?  The first one?  The no-brainer?   :huh:

I was 10 at the time.  I got Gulf War trading cards. :)  I still have Dick Cheney's rookie card.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Neil on November 24, 2012, 07:46:20 PM
Quote from: Viking on November 24, 2012, 05:29:45 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2012, 05:21:58 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 20, 2012, 12:30:54 PM
Our whole school was protesting against the '91 Gulf War (I was 14 at the time). I and three others out of 400+ students refused to go because we were in favor of military action. Our teachers weren't happy, but they respected our decision. We even got interviewed by the local paper.
91?  The first one?  The no-brainer?   :huh:
Rely on the pacifists to side with the fascist imperialist dictators against the democracies.
The Germans weren't siding with Saddam.  They just felt that doing anything to prevent him from conquring the Middle East would be wrong.  Actually, in that the German national character has always been consistent:  It's always wrong to stop an aggressive dictator from conquering whatever he likes.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on November 24, 2012, 07:47:07 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 24, 2012, 06:53:03 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2012, 05:21:58 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 20, 2012, 12:30:54 PM
Our whole school was protesting against the '91 Gulf War (I was 14 at the time). I and three others out of 400+ students refused to go because we were in favor of military action. Our teachers weren't happy, but they respected our decision. We even got interviewed by the local paper.

91?  The first one?  The no-brainer?   :huh:

I was 10 at the time.  I got Gulf War trading cards. :)  I still have Dick Cheney's rookie card.

He is like a mint pikachu.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 25, 2012, 12:01:57 AM
The rebels have captured a lot of heavy weapons.

http://brown-moses.blogspot.kr/2012/11/videos-show-more-heavy-weapons-captured.html
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on November 25, 2012, 07:37:37 PM
Quote from: Neil on November 24, 2012, 07:46:20 PM
Quote from: Viking on November 24, 2012, 05:29:45 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2012, 05:21:58 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 20, 2012, 12:30:54 PM
Our whole school was protesting against the '91 Gulf War (I was 14 at the time). I and three others out of 400+ students refused to go because we were in favor of military action. Our teachers weren't happy, but they respected our decision. We even got interviewed by the local paper.
91?  The first one?  The no-brainer?   :huh:
Rely on the pacifists to side with the fascist imperialist dictators against the democracies.
The Germans weren't siding with Saddam.  They just felt that doing anything to prevent him from conquring the Middle East would be wrong.  Actually, in that the German national character has always been consistent:  It's always wrong to stop an aggressive dictator from conquering whatever he likes.

Quote from: Edmund BurkeAll that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Neil on November 25, 2012, 07:44:17 PM
The Germans aren't good men.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on November 25, 2012, 07:49:46 PM
Quote from: Neil on November 25, 2012, 07:44:17 PM
The Germans aren't good men.

They had good men. Carl von Ossietsky, Martin Niemöller etc.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 26, 2012, 01:32:36 AM
Rebels capture a helicopter base outside Damascus.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/25/15440024-syrian-rebels-take-airbase?lite

I don't think Assad's going to last much longer. Six months more at most.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Grinning_Colossus on November 26, 2012, 03:53:59 PM
The next Friedman Unit will be crucial.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 27, 2012, 06:27:02 AM
Rebel cavalry and artillery

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsZCRzJzR58

Rebs continue to advance. Unless he breaks out the gas, then he's going down within a few months.
http://www.france24.com/en/20121126-syria-rebels-cut-off-most-roads-aleppo
Quote26 November 2012 - 16H21 

Syria rebels cut off most roads to Aleppo

AFP - Syrian rebels aiming to encircle Aleppo virtually cut off roads to the battleground city from neighbouring Raqa province as the army targeted rebel strongholds around Damascus on Monday.

After several days of fighting, the insurgents took full control of Tishrin dam on the Euphrates river, a route that connects the northern provinces of Aleppo and Raqa, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

A resident of nearby Manbij confirmed the report, adding that employees of the six-turbine hydropower dam were continuing operations.

"The capture of the Tishrin dam is very important. It means that the army basically has only one road left to Aleppo," Observatory director Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP by telephone.

"The highway crossing over the Tishrin dam was the last main route from Raqa province under regime control. Now it is impassable," he said, noting that another small bridge exists further north but the road is difficult.

Another main route further south is dotted with regime and rebel checkpoints.

With the overnight capture, the rebels now hold sway over a wide expanse of territory between the two provinces bordering Turkey, which backs the revolt against President Bashar al-Assad.

The army must now rely on the Damascus-Aleppo highway to bring reinforcements to Syria's embattled commercial hub of Aleppo, where fighting is deadlocked.

Further west, a warplane launched three bombs or rockets at a rebel command centre in Atme near the Turkish border on Monday, without causing casualties or hitting its target, an AFP journalist said.

The village, a nerve centre of the rebellion two kilometres (1.2 miles) from Turkey, was once home to 7,000 inhabitants who have largely fled.

In a sign of growing confidence, rebel officers have formed a commission to lay the groundwork for a future army and liaise with the political opposition on issues such as arming fighters on the ground, a spokesman said on Monday.

He said the Free Officers Assembly will seek "to lay the correct foundations for the construction of the new Syrian army, which will be a non-partisan defender of the rights and dignity of the people," working with the opposition National Coalition.

Faced with an increasingly offensive revolt, the regime has been reducing its territorial ambitions to focus on Damascus, central Syria and Alawite bastions, as it digs in for a long war, analysts say.

As part of this effort, troops have been bombing rebel positions in the outskirts of the capital, including in Daraya, the site of the worst massacre in the 20-month conflict.

The Syrian National Council, a leading opposition group, on Monday said more than 130 people have been killed in the town in three weeks. According to the Observatory, rebels account for 80 percent of the deaths.

Pro-government daily Al-Watan said on Monday that troops were advancing on Daraya and had inflicted heavy losses on "Al-Qaeda terrorists".

Prime Minister Wael al-Halaqi, meanwhile, laid the foundation stone for a new housing project in Damascus, vowing that " despite all the challenges facing Syria, the development process will continue."

The Observatory, which relies on a network of activists and medics for its information, gave an initial toll of 19 people killed on Monday. It has recorded a total of more than 40,000 deaths in the Syrian conflict.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on November 27, 2012, 11:37:47 PM
A lot of these rebel victories have apparently been because Assad's had to withdraw a lot of forces to defend his position in Damascus.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on November 27, 2012, 11:41:52 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 27, 2012, 11:37:47 PM
A lot of these rebel victories have apparently been because Assad's had to withdraw a lot of forces to defend his position in Damascus.
That's still a victory for the rebels, it's just that the credit belongs to those who threatened Damascus.  You can't survive indefinitely by holing up in the capital while giving up the rest of the country, as Qaddafi learned.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Jacob on November 29, 2012, 12:31:45 PM
Syria goes off the net: http://www.renesys.com/blog/2012/11/syria-off-the-air.shtml
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 29, 2012, 06:07:26 PM
Rebels are shooting down aircraft with manpads now.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/28/syrian-rebel-missiles-assad-aircraft?CMP=SOCxx2I2

Assad shut the internet off for the whole country.

http://www.renesys.com/blog/2012/11/syria-off-the-air.shtml

With his air superiority in peril, is now going to escalate by gassing the rebels? He must be about to do something he really doesn't want the world to know about. And given that he hasn't cared to try and cover up the preceding 40,000 fatalities, it must pretty damn bad.  :hmm:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Queequeg on November 29, 2012, 06:40:26 PM
Gas would probably result in NATO troops in-country within the next few months, wouldn't it?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Jacob on November 29, 2012, 06:42:21 PM
Hey Tim! Did you hear? Assad has shut down internet access in Syria!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on November 29, 2012, 06:55:41 PM
I heard that internet access was shut off. You heard it from me first.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on November 29, 2012, 09:33:26 PM
Quote from: Queequeg on November 29, 2012, 06:40:26 PM
Gas would probably result in NATO troops in-country within the next few months, wouldn't it?
I believe Obama and others have said that accessing or using WMDs would lead to an immediate intervention.

QuoteHey Tim! Did you hear? Assad has shut down internet access in Syria!
Do we know it was Assad yet?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 29, 2012, 09:33:40 PM
Quote from: Jacob on November 29, 2012, 06:42:21 PM
Hey Tim! Did you hear? Assad has shut down internet access in Syria!
I saw your post right after I posted, thought about editing it, but I was too lazy. -_-
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on November 29, 2012, 11:48:31 PM
Haven't been able to pay much attention to this in the news the past few days.  Anything happen with internet access in Syria, or is everyone there still able to get online?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on November 30, 2012, 12:47:38 AM
According to Tim, Internet in Syria has been cut.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on November 30, 2012, 12:53:46 AM
Also, a convoy of Austrian soldiers came under fire when they were headed for the capital. Two Austrian soldiers were wounded, but not badly.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 30, 2012, 01:45:51 AM
Quote from: Syt on November 30, 2012, 12:53:46 AM
Also, a convoy of Austrian soldiers came under fire when they were headed for the capital. Two Austrian soldiers were wounded, but not badly.

I was so intrigued by this statement I had to go look it up immediately.

Pretty mundane though, not surprising at all.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i0PmLeoeOvEvAI_sValMaPIMRcrQ?docId=CNG.826c89df111c6e8fb5cfa6bd1cabd75e.2d1
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Jacob on November 30, 2012, 01:47:33 AM
Quote from: DGuller on November 30, 2012, 12:47:38 AM
According to Tim, Internet in Syria has been cut.

I think Ed Anger posted first.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 30, 2012, 01:58:40 AM
Best video yet


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZXrj9WI7rc

Skip to the 1 minute mark, that's where it begins. Some guys recon a govt. missile base. Then around 2:10 they plan an attack with miniatures and maps. Then they had out and attack it at the 4:05 mark.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on November 30, 2012, 07:09:21 AM
Quote from: Jacob on November 30, 2012, 01:47:33 AM
Quote from: DGuller on November 30, 2012, 12:47:38 AM
According to Tim, Internet in Syria has been cut.

I think Ed Anger posted first.

:yes:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 30, 2012, 07:39:28 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 30, 2012, 01:58:40 AM
Then around 2:10 they plan an attack with miniatures and maps.

Some of The Brain's best work yet. 

Ed can be the bottle cap, and run an out towards the Buick.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 11, 2012, 11:28:51 PM
About time, it's been clear the rebs would win for a while.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/12/us-formally-recognise-syrian-opposition

Quote

US to formally recognise Syrian opposition

Barack Obama says US will recognise opposition coalition as the de facto administration of Syrian regions under rebel control

    Chris McGreal   
    guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 12 December 2012 00.45 GMT   

Barack Obama has said the US will formally recognise a Syrian opposition coalition as the de facto administration of regions under rebel control in a move that further saps the legitimacy of president Bashar al-Assad's rule.

The president's announcement, in an interview with ABC News, comes as Washington attempts to bolster support for rebel groups it regards as acceptable to western interests while attempting to isolate others.

Obama said the US has thrown its weight behind the coalition because he said it is open and representative enough to include various ethnic and religious groups.

"We've made a decision that the Syrian Opposition Coalition is now inclusive enough, is reflective and representative enough of the Syrian population, that we consider them the legitimate representative of the Syrian people in opposition to the Assad regime" he said.

But the president did not address whether the US is now prepared to arm the rebels or offer other military support similar to the air bombardment in support of Libya insurgents fighting Colonel Muammar Gadaffi nearly two years ago.

Obama's comments came before a meeting between senior US state department officials and Syrian opposition leaders, under the umbrella of the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, in Marrakech, Morocco on Wednesday at which the recognition agreement is expected to be formalised.

Hours earlier, the Obama administration declared one Syrian resistance group, the al-Nusra Front for the People of the Levant, a terrorist organisation and an al-Qaida front.

"Not everybody who is participating on the ground in fighting Assad are people that we are comfortable with," said Obama. "There are some who I think have adopted an extremist agenda, an anti-US agenda."

The recognition of the coalition comes amid growing disillusionment among Syrian opposition fighters, some of whom have complained of being abandoned by the US when other countries, including Britain, France and Turkey, have already recognised the coalition. They have compared the lack of active American backing with the support given to rebels in Libya.

Washington expects to work with the Syrian opposition coalition to established its authority in areas now under rebel control, in part by working with local councils. That is intended not only to isolate extremist groups but to prepare the coalition to take national power if and when Assad is overthrown.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on December 11, 2012, 11:30:16 PM
Great. :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on December 12, 2012, 03:11:24 AM
Syria is doomed. More doomed than with the secular Baathists. It'll be a sunni-fundamentalist shithole in a few years.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 12, 2012, 03:53:23 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on December 12, 2012, 03:11:24 AM
Syria is doomed. More doomed than with the secular Baathists. It'll be a sunni-fundamentalist shithole in a few years.
Because we refused to arm the secular rebels and let the Saudis and Qatar arm the wackjobs and ship in jihadis.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on December 12, 2012, 05:44:57 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 12, 2012, 03:53:23 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on December 12, 2012, 03:11:24 AM
Syria is doomed. More doomed than with the secular Baathists. It'll be a sunni-fundamentalist shithole in a few years.
Because we refused to arm the secular rebels and let the Saudis and Qatar arm the wackjobs and ship in jihadis.

in that case Syria would still be doomed as after a civil war the fundamentalist whackjobs would be in power.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 12, 2012, 06:06:41 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on December 12, 2012, 05:44:57 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 12, 2012, 03:53:23 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on December 12, 2012, 03:11:24 AM
Syria is doomed. More doomed than with the secular Baathists. It'll be a sunni-fundamentalist shithole in a few years.
Because we refused to arm the secular rebels and let the Saudis and Qatar arm the wackjobs and ship in jihadis.

in that case Syria would still be doomed as after a civil war the fundamentalist whackjobs would be in power.
Eh, I don't see how that follows what I said?

The reason the fundamentalists will be able to seize power is because the West declined to arm the more secular FSA factions in the early going. Instead we let the Saudis and Qatar arm the rebels of their choosing, and looked the other way when they began shipping in jihadists. If we had armed the secular factions in the beginning this wouldn't have happened.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on December 12, 2012, 08:05:24 AM
The Secularists were in the minority already.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 12, 2012, 08:10:38 AM
I was unaware Tim that Qatar had become a hotbed of Wahhabist fanaticism.

I was also unaware that we looked the other way while jihadists made their way to Syria, and I am curious what it would have been like if we had stared directly at them while they did so.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on December 12, 2012, 08:28:50 AM
I still support Bashir, at least until the US cracks his huge forehead open.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on December 12, 2012, 10:00:53 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 12, 2012, 08:10:38 AM
I was unaware Tim that Qatar had become a hotbed of Wahhabist fanaticism.
It's not.  The Qataris are backing the Muslim Brotherhood, the Saudis are backing the Salafis.  Except in GCC states and monarchies where they unite to help the regime.  It's caused some tension and apparently there's recently been high-level meetings to cool things down between Saudi and Qatar.

More problematically the Turks and the Saudis have been arming groups together (as they did in Bosnia) in, from what I've read, a pretty indiscriminate way.

QuoteI was also unaware that we looked the other way while jihadists made their way to Syria, and I am curious what it would have been like if we had stared directly at them while they did so.
The laserlike focus of America is enough to alter the course of events.  If that fails then the US should take a stand.  That, invariably, matters.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on December 12, 2012, 10:01:34 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 12, 2012, 08:05:24 AM
The Secularists were in the minority already.
They were, but let's not over-glorify kleptocratic tribal regimes with some noble ideological purpose.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 13, 2012, 12:23:20 AM
Lol, Assad his firing Scuds at the Rebels now.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/12/12/15867662-syrian-forces-have-fired-scud-missiles-at-rebels-us-officials-say?lite

He's also been reduced to dropping naval mines on the enemy from the air.

It looks so sad it didn't explode. :(
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FhXb4e.jpg&hash=652f2165665aac88ca8998fa78d35e007990650e)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Neil on December 13, 2012, 12:37:46 AM
He'd be crazy not to use chemical weapons at this point.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on December 13, 2012, 12:39:54 AM
Quote from: Neil on December 13, 2012, 12:37:46 AM
He'd be crazy not to use chemical weapons at this point.

meh, he can still show up in Riyhad and get asylum.. after gassing saudi volunteers maybe not so much
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on December 13, 2012, 12:40:49 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 12, 2012, 10:01:34 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 12, 2012, 08:05:24 AM
The Secularists were in the minority already.
They were, but let's not over-glorify kleptocratic tribal regimes with some noble ideological purpose.

I'm not sure what you are talking about.  I'm not a big fan of the Assad regime, I'm just not a big fan of the rebels either.  But you know me, I'm not a big fan of revolutions.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on December 13, 2012, 12:47:11 AM
Quote from: Viking on December 13, 2012, 12:39:54 AM
Quote from: Neil on December 13, 2012, 12:37:46 AM
He'd be crazy not to use chemical weapons at this point.

meh, he can still show up in Riyhad and get asylum.. after gassing saudi volunteers maybe not so much

I doubt that.  There aren't that many places he can go.  Iran might take him.  I'm sure the Russians would gladly take him, and then sell him back for concessions.  You might be able to find some loopy African state to take him, like Sudan or possibly Chavez in Venezuela.  Chavez seems to enjoy making provocative moves for little or no gain.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on December 13, 2012, 12:49:58 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 13, 2012, 12:47:11 AM
Quote from: Viking on December 13, 2012, 12:39:54 AM
Quote from: Neil on December 13, 2012, 12:37:46 AM
He'd be crazy not to use chemical weapons at this point.

meh, he can still show up in Riyhad and get asylum.. after gassing saudi volunteers maybe not so much

I doubt that.  There aren't that many places he can go.  Iran might take him.  I'm sure the Russians would gladly take him, and then sell him back for concessions.  You might be able to find some loopy African state to take him, like Sudan or possibly Chavez in Venezuela.  Chavez seems to enjoy making provocative moves for little or no gain.

The saudis have a long history of providing asylum for the truely evil that happen to be muslim. They take this guardianship of the two mosques thing seriously. If assad goes on haji with a shitload of money in his pocket he can stay.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on December 13, 2012, 12:58:50 AM
Wouldn't it be kind of awkward, since Saudis are also financing the rebels?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: dps on December 13, 2012, 01:11:56 AM
Quote from: DGuller on December 13, 2012, 12:58:50 AM
Wouldn't it be kind of awkward, since Saudis are also financing the rebels?

If he brings enough money with him, I sure the Saudis will manage to live with the awkwardness.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 13, 2012, 07:29:02 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 13, 2012, 12:23:20 AM
He's also been reduced to dropping naval mines on the enemy from the air.

It looks so sad it didn't explode. :(
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FhXb4e.jpg&hash=652f2165665aac88ca8998fa78d35e007990650e)

lol, it does, doesn't it.  Looks like it's crying.  It has failed to do the one thing in life it was supposed to do.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on December 13, 2012, 07:39:47 AM
Given all the difficulty the US and allies have had with the Afghanistan generation of islamists/terrorists, I wonder what this new generation from the Syrian conflict will bring ?

For one thing there's going to be a lot more of them, given Syria is a relatively short hop across a land border for many, compared to the previous long trip to the north-west Pakistan mountains
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on December 13, 2012, 12:03:16 PM
Quote from: Viking on December 13, 2012, 12:49:58 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 13, 2012, 12:47:11 AM
Quote from: Viking on December 13, 2012, 12:39:54 AM
Quote from: Neil on December 13, 2012, 12:37:46 AM
He'd be crazy not to use chemical weapons at this point.

meh, he can still show up in Riyhad and get asylum.. after gassing saudi volunteers maybe not so much

I doubt that.  There aren't that many places he can go.  Iran might take him.  I'm sure the Russians would gladly take him, and then sell him back for concessions.  You might be able to find some loopy African state to take him, like Sudan or possibly Chavez in Venezuela.  Chavez seems to enjoy making provocative moves for little or no gain.

The saudis have a long history of providing asylum for the truely evil that happen to be muslim. They take this guardianship of the two mosques thing seriously. If assad goes on haji with a shitload of money in his pocket he can stay.

Uh, he's a secularist, an Alawite, and an ally of Saudi Arabia's biggest enemy.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on December 13, 2012, 12:28:16 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 13, 2012, 12:03:16 PM

Uh, he's a secularist, an Alawite, and an ally of Saudi Arabia's biggest enemy.

assuming he's a better muslim than idi amin he's still in with a chance
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on December 13, 2012, 12:38:27 PM
Quote from: Viking on December 13, 2012, 12:28:16 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 13, 2012, 12:03:16 PM

Uh, he's a secularist, an Alawite, and an ally of Saudi Arabia's biggest enemy.

assuming he's a better muslim than idi amin he's still in with a chance

I'm guessing you just don't get it.  It's be like Napoleon trying to get asylum with the Church of England.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on December 13, 2012, 12:53:56 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 13, 2012, 07:29:02 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 13, 2012, 12:23:20 AM
He's also been reduced to dropping naval mines on the enemy from the air.

It looks so sad it didn't explode. :(
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FhXb4e.jpg&hash=652f2165665aac88ca8998fa78d35e007990650e)

lol, it does, doesn't it.  Looks like it's crying.  It has failed to do the one thing in life it was supposed to do.

Let there be light!

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sopg.de%2Fzeux%2Fimages%2F2007_10_03_bomb20.jpg&hash=8dac2678bdfa357dff3c055c66c82d2357048774)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on December 13, 2012, 01:49:41 PM
Quote from: Viking on December 13, 2012, 12:49:58 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 13, 2012, 12:47:11 AM
Quote from: Viking on December 13, 2012, 12:39:54 AM
Quote from: Neil on December 13, 2012, 12:37:46 AM
He'd be crazy not to use chemical weapons at this point.

meh, he can still show up in Riyhad and get asylum.. after gassing saudi volunteers maybe not so much

I doubt that.  There aren't that many places he can go.  Iran might take him.  I'm sure the Russians would gladly take him, and then sell him back for concessions.  You might be able to find some loopy African state to take him, like Sudan or possibly Chavez in Venezuela.  Chavez seems to enjoy making provocative moves for little or no gain.

The saudis have a long history of providing asylum for the truely evil that happen to be muslim. They take this guardianship of the two mosques thing seriously. If assad goes on haji with a shitload of money in his pocket he can stay.
He's not a Muslim.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on December 13, 2012, 01:55:33 PM
Quote from: Syt on December 13, 2012, 12:53:56 PM
Let there be light!

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sopg.de%2Fzeux%2Fimages%2F2007_10_03_bomb20.jpg&hash=8dac2678bdfa357dff3c055c66c82d2357048774)

Heh, I wonder if I'm the only other person to have seen that movie on this board?  :lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on December 13, 2012, 01:57:43 PM
Quote from: Malthus on December 13, 2012, 01:55:33 PM
Heh, I wonder if I'm the only other person to have seen that movie on this board?  :lol:

Considering the amounts of nerds here: unlikely. I guess Yi hasn't seen it, though. :P
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on December 13, 2012, 02:42:28 PM
I don't know, Dark Star?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on December 13, 2012, 04:26:25 PM
I remember seeing it as a kid but I can't remember its title
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on December 13, 2012, 04:44:22 PM
Raz was right.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Queequeg on December 13, 2012, 05:46:11 PM
Are you fucking serious? It's Dark Star.   Inspiration for Alien. Of course I've seen it. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on December 13, 2012, 05:48:58 PM
Quote from: Syt on December 13, 2012, 01:57:43 PM
Quote from: Malthus on December 13, 2012, 01:55:33 PM
Heh, I wonder if I'm the only other person to have seen that movie on this board?  :lol:

Considering the amounts of nerds here: unlikely.

Wadaya know, you were right.  :D
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on December 13, 2012, 05:57:21 PM
Quote from: garbon on December 13, 2012, 04:44:22 PM
Raz was right.

I didn't think it was that good of a movie.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on December 13, 2012, 07:37:27 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 13, 2012, 12:40:49 AM
I'm not sure what you are talking about.  I'm not a big fan of the Assad regime, I'm just not a big fan of the rebels either.  But you know me, I'm not a big fan of revolutions.
The Baathist regimes seem to be fine with sectarianism when divvying up the spoils.  The original Baathism may have been secularist, I think that's far too grand a description for the Assads or the Husseins.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on December 13, 2012, 08:00:38 PM
I think that has more to do with divide and conquer and pitting one tribe against another then anything else.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: dps on December 14, 2012, 01:38:08 AM
Quote from: Malthus on December 13, 2012, 05:48:58 PM
Quote from: Syt on December 13, 2012, 01:57:43 PM
Quote from: Malthus on December 13, 2012, 01:55:33 PM
Heh, I wonder if I'm the only other person to have seen that movie on this board?  :lol:

Considering the amounts of nerds here: unlikely.

Wadaya know, you were right.  :D

I actually saw it during its theatrical run.  I might be the only person here who can honestly make that claim.  (Heck, I might be the only person alive who can honestly make that claim, considering its meager box-office take.)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 19, 2012, 04:04:17 AM
Legitimately great news!

Richard Engle was rescued from government militiamen by Rebels!

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/12/18/15985279-richard-engel-and-nbc-news-team-freed-from-captors-in-syria?lite

QuoteUpdated at 8:15 a.m. ET: NBC News' Chief Foreign Correspondent Richard Engel and members of his network production team were freed from captors in Syria after a firefight at a checkpoint on Monday, five days after they were taken prisoner, NBC News said early Tuesday.

"After being kidnapped and held for five days inside Syria by an unknown group, NBC News Chief Foreign Correspondent Richard Engel and his production crew members have been freed unharmed. We are pleased to report they are safely out of the country," the network said in a statement.

"It is good to be here," Engel said during a live appearance on TODAY from Turkey. "I'm very happy that we're able to do this live shot this morning."

Engel said that they were traveling with Syrian rebels when a group of about 15 gunmen "jumped out of the trees and bushes" and captured them.

'Psychological torture'
He said the gunmen executed one of the rebels "on the spot," and later during their captivity they were subjected to mock executions while blindfolded and bound.

"We weren't physically beaten or tortured. It was a lot of psychological torture, threats of being killed," Engel said.

"They made us choose which one of us would be shot first and when we refused there were mock shootings. They pretended to shoot Ghazi [Balkiz, an NBC producer] several times," Engel said.

Balkiz said that they had "worked with each other very well... we kept each other's spirits up" during their ordeal. Cameraman John Kooistra said he had "made good with my maker" and had been "prepared to die many times."

Engel said their captors "were talking openly about their loyalty to the government" of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

He said he had a "very good idea" about who they were -- members of the "shabiha" militia, loyal to Assad, trained by the Iran's Revolutionary Guard and allied with Lebanon-based group Hezbollah.

Engel said their captors' plan was to use them to win the freedom of people held by the rebels.

"They captured us in order to carry out this exchange," he said.

Engel, 39, and his team disappeared shortly after crossing into northwest Syria from Turkey on Thursday. The network had not been able to contact them until learning that they had been freed on Monday.

The network said there was no claim of responsibility, no contact with the captors and no request for ransom during the time the crew was missing.

After entering Syria, Engel and his team were abducted, tossed into the back of a truck before being transported to an unknown location believed to be near the small town of Ma'arrat Misrin. During their captivity, they were blindfolded and bound, but otherwise not physically harmed, the network said.

Early Monday evening local time, the prisoners were being moved to a new location in a vehicle when their captors ran into a checkpoint manned by members of the Ahrar al-Sham brigade, a Syrian rebel group. There was a confrontation and a firefight ensued.  Two of the captors were killed, while an unknown number of others escaped, the network said.

The NBC News crew was unharmed in the incident. They remained in Syria until Tuesday morning when they made their way to the border and re-entered Turkey, the network said. They were to be evaluated and debriefed, but had communicated that everyone was in good health.

NBC News said it "expressed its gratitude to those who worked to gather information and secure the release of our colleagues."
Advertise | AdChoices

Engel is widely regarded as one of America's leading foreign correspondents for his coverage of wars, revolutions and political transitions around the world over the last 15 years. Most recently, he was recognized for his outstanding reporting on the 2011 revolution in Egypt, the conflict in Libya and unrest throughout the Arab world.

One of the only Western journalists to cover the entire war in Iraq , Engel was named chief foreign correspondent of NBC News in April 2008. He joined the network in May 2003.

The Syrian civil war began in March 2011, when demonstrators took to the streets to show support for the so-called Arab Spring uprisings sweeping across the Middle East and north Africa and to demand the resignation of Assad of the ruling Ba'ath Party. The following month, Assad deployed the Syrian army to quell the uprising, ordering troops to open fire on demonstrators. But despite the harsh crackdown, Assad's troops and militias loyal to the government were unable to quell what soon became an armed uprising.

In the intervening months, the security situation in the country has continued to deteriorate amid increasingly fierce fighting between Syrian troops and a loose confederation of outgunned but increasingly emboldened rebel forces. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimated in November that more than 40,000 people had died in the fighting.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Josquius on December 24, 2012, 11:50:50 AM
I'm sure everyone saw the news about the bakery being bombed.
Interesting that popped up in the news, just the other week I read an article about how the regime's tactics have changed to that of a siege and aiming to destroy the infrastructutre in rebel areas and bakeries becoming vital strategic buildings.
Pretty depressing....
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Grallon on December 24, 2012, 01:27:21 PM
Say the regime survives and armed resistence crumbles - what then?  Would Hassad go in full totalitarian mode with police and snitches running rampant, with prison camps everywhere, with mass executions?  You can't control a population through fear alone for very long.



G.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on December 24, 2012, 01:34:38 PM
Quote from: Grallon on December 24, 2012, 01:27:21 PM
Say the regime survives and armed resistence crumbles - what then?  Would Hassad go in full totalitarian mode with police and snitches running rampant, with prison camps everywhere, with mass executions?  You can't control a population through fear alone for very long.



G.
I doubt that there is much chance of that, absent a foreign intervention.  For brutal dictators, there is a point of no return where they just can't put together enough authority to run things.  Even the most autocratic dictators need to have a large proportion of the people behind them at any one time, and too many of Syrians have crossed the Rubicon themselves for that to happen.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on December 24, 2012, 02:03:41 PM
Quote from: Grallon on December 24, 2012, 01:27:21 PM
Say the regime survives and armed resistence crumbles - what then?  Would Hassad go in full totalitarian mode with police and snitches running rampant, with prison camps everywhere, with mass executions?  You can't control a population through fear alone for very long.



G.

Makes you hard just thinking about it doesn't it?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on December 24, 2012, 02:05:05 PM
Saddam did alright post gulf war until Dubya decided to assfuck him.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 24, 2012, 07:11:51 PM
Assad starting to push the envelope and see if there's any reaction?

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/12/24/16127090-syria-activists-several-die-after-assads-forces-use-poisonous-gases?lite
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 24, 2012, 07:35:48 PM
The Guardian says Russians are manning some of the regime's more sophisticated SAM sites.  :yeahright:

The rebels have captured quite a few of these bases though and haven't said anything about capturing/killing Russians. :hmm:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/23/syria-crisis-russian-military-presence
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on December 24, 2012, 08:50:30 PM
The Daily Mail is manning some of the artillery as well.  Wait, back up, why would they need SAMs in the first place?  They could only come in to play if a third party intervenes, and if that happens SAMs will likely be destroyed immediately.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on December 25, 2012, 05:28:15 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 24, 2012, 08:50:30 PM
The Daily Mail is manning some of the artillery as well.  Wait, back up, why would they need SAMs in the first place?  They could only come in to play if a third party intervenes, and if that happens SAMs will likely be destroyed immediately.

except they can't be destroyed if manned by Russians. And you can't intervene unless you can destroy the SAMs.

See the reason behind manning them with Russians now? :P
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on December 25, 2012, 05:56:32 AM
Yeah, the Russians can't exactly bring this up to the UN to complain if they get burned, and what else are they going to do?  Blockade Berlin?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 25, 2012, 06:28:15 AM
Quote from: Tamas on December 25, 2012, 05:28:15 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 24, 2012, 08:50:30 PM
The Daily Mail is manning some of the artillery as well.  Wait, back up, why would they need SAMs in the first place?  They could only come in to play if a third party intervenes, and if that happens SAMs will likely be destroyed immediately.

except they can't be destroyed if manned by Russians. And you can't intervene unless you can destroy the SAMs.

See the reason behind manning them with Russians now? :P
That may be their hope, but we killed Soviet pilots in Korea and Vietnam, why would we hesitate to do the same to SAM operators here.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on December 25, 2012, 07:52:03 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 24, 2012, 08:50:30 PMWait, back up, why would they need SAMs in the first place? 

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.idfblog.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2012%2F07%2FF-16.jpg&hash=cb40454ae927bb7dd8e87a348b85f62459bb6918)

and

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.globalpost.com%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fimagecache%2Fgp3_small_article%2Frsz_108192643.jpg&hash=036e5032507b59095fd2fac1b9f1a6d12be17636)

clear?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 25, 2012, 07:53:33 AM
Quote from: Tamas on December 25, 2012, 05:28:15 AM
except they can't be destroyed if manned by Russians.

On the plus side, they can't be expected to work if manned by Russians.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on December 25, 2012, 08:21:39 AM
Quote from: Viking on December 25, 2012, 07:52:03 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 24, 2012, 08:50:30 PMWait, back up, why would they need SAMs in the first place? 

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.idfblog.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2012%2F07%2FF-16.jpg&hash=cb40454ae927bb7dd8e87a348b85f62459bb6918)

and

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.globalpost.com%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fimagecache%2Fgp3_small_article%2Frsz_108192643.jpg&hash=036e5032507b59095fd2fac1b9f1a6d12be17636)

clear?

Yeah, but Russian SAMs aren't gong to defend against that.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Neil on December 25, 2012, 10:14:58 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 25, 2012, 06:28:15 AM
That may be their hope, but we killed Soviet pilots in Korea and Vietnam, why would we hesitate to do the same to SAM operators here.
Because if a US plane gets shot down, it would wreck Obama's second term.  Weak jingos are only in love with the idea of intervening so long as there is no danger of retaliation.  US military prestige is already as low as it has been since Vietnam, and any further setbacks would give the forces of evil an opening.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on January 02, 2013, 09:40:39 PM
Not surprising news, but terrible none the less.  :(


QuoteAt least 60,000 people have died in Syria's conflict, the UN human rights commissioner has said, citing an "exhaustive" study which has sharply increased the number of those believed killed.

Before the latest UN-commissioned survey it had been estimated that up to 45,000 people had perished during the conflict; the up-to-date calculation increases the death toll by a third...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jan/02/60000-killed-syrian-war-un
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on January 03, 2013, 02:43:05 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on January 02, 2013, 09:40:39 PM
Not surprising news, but terrible none the less.  :(


QuoteAt least 60,000 people have died in Syria's conflict, the UN human rights commissioner has said, citing an "exhaustive" study which has sharply increased the number of those believed killed.

Before the latest UN-commissioned survey it had been estimated that up to 45,000 people had perished during the conflict; the up-to-date calculation increases the death toll by a third...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jan/02/60000-killed-syrian-war-un

there's less outcry for those 60.000 dead than for one palestinian terrorist that gets his due. Typical
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on January 03, 2013, 02:47:59 AM
Yeah, nobody gives a fuck if the Arabs that die, die at the hands of other Arabs.  All those people critical of Israel and decry the bulldozing of some Palestinian homes say nothing about Hama.  10,000 people die, nobody gives a fuck. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on January 03, 2013, 07:56:40 AM
I give a fuck: I hope it hits 100K.
Title: NYT human interest story: Suicidal Japanese Tourist Goes to Syria
Post by: Grinning_Colossus on January 04, 2013, 03:46:22 PM
QuoteToshifumi Fujimoto's vacation pictures, posted on his Facebook page, show him in poses familiar to any tourist. He lines up with interesting people, tries local activities and shows the sights. Except in the case of Mr. Fujimoto, a Japanese tourist, that means images of what appear to be Syrian rebel fighters engaged in battle, of himself firing an assault rifle and of the corpses of some of the 60,000 people the United Nations has said have died in Syria since a civil war began there early last year.

Mr. Fujimoto, 45, is, according to an interview he gave the news agency Agence France-Presse in Aleppo, Syria, usually a trucker hauling loads between Osaka and Tokyo or Nagasaki. For the last week and on a previous trip, he has been a tourist snapping pictures with his Canon D-SLR cameras and a compact video camera in Aleppo — the very heart of the Syrian conflict. (A link to his Facebook page is here, with the warning that it contains very graphic images.)
https://www.facebook.com/toshifumi.fujimoto.52?__req=26 (https://www.facebook.com/toshifumi.fujimoto.52?__req=26)

He told the news agency, via Google Translate, that he had sneaked across the border from Turkey and taken up a position where the fighting is heaviest. "I always go by myself, because no tour guide wants to go to the front," Mr. Fujimoto said. "It's very exciting, and the adrenaline rush is like no other."

He dresses in camouflage fatigues, but without a protective jacket or helmet, which he said were too heavy and could dull the excitement of the gunshots. "I'm not a target for snipers because I'm a tourist, not like you journalists," he said. "Besides, I'm not afraid if they shoot at me or that they might kill me. I'm a combination of samurai and kamikaze."  :ph34r:

Mr. Fujimoto has also been to conflicts in Yemen and Egypt and said he would like to spend time with the Taliban in Afghanistan. He makes no money from his photography and pays for his trips himself. He explained his motivation to Agence France-Presse:

Fujimoto is divorced, and says: "I have no family, no friends, no girl friend. I am alone in life."

But he does have three daughters, whom he hasn't seen for five years, "not even on Facebook or the Internet, nothing. And that saddens me deeply," he said as he wiped away a tear.

So he's bought a life insurance policy, and "I pray every day that, if something happens to me, my girls might collect the insurance money and be able to live comfortably."

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/03/japanese-man-vacations-on-syrian-front-lines/?smid=re-share (http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/03/japanese-man-vacations-on-syrian-front-lines/?smid=re-share)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on January 04, 2013, 04:14:15 PM
I hope he's carefully read that policy ...  :lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on January 04, 2013, 05:15:12 PM
Quote from: Malthus on January 04, 2013, 04:14:15 PM
I hope he's carefully read that policy ...  :lol:
I hope his insurance company has carefully read that article. :contract:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on January 04, 2013, 05:22:52 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 04, 2013, 05:15:12 PM
Quote from: Malthus on January 04, 2013, 04:14:15 PM
I hope he's carefully read that policy ...  :lol:
I hope his insurance company has carefully read that article. :contract:

Hey, maybe he's made full disclosure.  :D

I'm wondering how much "combination of samurai and kamikaze" tourism insurance would cost.  :hmm:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on January 08, 2013, 05:18:32 AM
This has got to be the biggest truck bomb I've ever seen! Damn!

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=2ee_1357513472

More info on that specific attack

http://brown-moses.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/unexploded-bombs-used-in-truck-bomb-by.html
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on January 08, 2013, 09:02:38 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on January 08, 2013, 05:18:32 AM
This has got to be the biggest truck bomb I've ever seen! Damn!

Because you've been around so many.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on January 08, 2013, 09:03:42 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on January 08, 2013, 09:02:38 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on January 08, 2013, 05:18:32 AM
This has got to be the biggest truck bomb I've ever seen! Damn!

Because you've been around so many.

well he IS Puerto Rican
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on January 08, 2013, 10:16:47 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on January 08, 2013, 09:02:38 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on January 08, 2013, 05:18:32 AM
This has got to be the biggest truck bomb I've ever seen! Damn!

Because you've been around so many.
There's a thing called video Seedy, you might want to look into it.

You can't deny that one's huge.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on January 24, 2013, 03:12:11 PM
I wonder what the Islamic (Only Sunni need apply) Republic of Syria is going to look like ?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on February 11, 2013, 03:29:43 AM
The FSA is apparently flush with weapons from the former Yugoslavia, and is on the march.

http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2013/2/6/syria-analysis-someone-is-arming-the-insurgentsand-its-worki.html
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on February 12, 2013, 03:11:45 AM
Not to be outdone by their more secular competitors, the Islamists seize the most important Dam in Syria and Iraq.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/02/11/16928540-syrian-rebels-seize-key-dam-gain-control-of-water-in-government-held-areas?lite
QuoteSyrian rebels seize key dam, gain control of water in government-held areas
By Bassem Mroue, The Associated Press

BEIRUT — Syrian rebels scored one of their biggest strategic victories Monday since the country's crisis began two years ago, capturing the nation's largest dam and iconic industrial symbol of the Assad family's four-decade rule.

Rebels led by the al-Qaida-linked militant group Jabhat al-Nusra now control much of the water flow in the country's north and east, eliciting warnings from experts that any mistake in managing the dam may drown wide areas in Syria and Iraq.

A Syrian government official denied that the rebels captured the dam, saying "heavy clashes are taking place around it." The official spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations. But amateur video released by activists showed gunmen walking around the facility's operations rooms and employees apparently carrying on with their work as usual.

In the capital, Damascus, the rebels kept the battle going mostly in northeastern and southern neighborhoods as the fighting gets closer to the heart of President Bashar Assad's seat of power.

The capture of the al-Furat dam came after rebels seized two smaller dams on the Euphrates river, which flows from Turkey through Syria and into Iraq. Behind al-Furat dam lies Lake Assad, which at 247 square miles is the country's largest water reservoir.

The dam produces 880 megawatts of electricity, a small amount of the country's production. Syria's electricity production relies on plants powered by natural gas and fuel oil.

Still, the capture handed the rebels control over water and electricity supplies for both government-held areas and large swaths of land the opposition has captured over the past 22 months of fighting.

"This is the most important dam in Syria. It is a strategic dam, and Lake Assad is one of the largest artificial lakes in the region," said Rami Abdul-Rahman, who heads the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

"It supplies many areas around Syria with electricity," Abdul-Rahman said, citing the provinces of Raqqa, Hassaka and Aleppo in the north as well as Deir el-Zour in the east near the Iraqi border.

The dam, constructed in the late 1960s in cooperation with the Soviet Union, is located in a northeastern town once called Tabqa. After the dam was built, the town's name changed to Thawra, Arabic for revolution, to mark the March 8, 1963 coup that brought Assad's ruling Baath party to power.

Early Monday, when the rebels stormed the dam and the town, one of the first things they did was set ablaze a giant statue of the late President Hafez Assad, the current president's father.

"This is one of the biggest projects that have a moral value in Syria's history," said Dubai-based Syrian economist Samir Seifan. "It was the Syrian government's biggest project in the 20th century."

'A very sensitive plant'
Seifan said that the dam is "a very sensitive plant" and it is very important that technicians and experts keep it running as usual because any mistake could have dangerous consequences.

He added that any mistake could "release massive amounts of water that will drown wide areas including the city of Deir el-Zour as well as cities in Iraq." Seifan added that "any damage will have dangerous consequences on civilians. It supplies hundreds of thousands of hectares with water."

An amateur video released by activists showed rebels walking through large operations rooms as employees went on with their work as usual.

"The al-Furat dam is now in the hands of the Free Syrian Army heroes," says the narrator. "And these are the workers, continuing their work as usual."

The video appeared genuine and corresponded to other Associated Press reporting on the events depicted.

Abdul-Rahman, of the Observatory, said the rebels have told their fighters not to interfere with the work of the dam. He added that the gunmen will leave the dam for employees to run but will keep their checkpoints around the dam.

The rebels now control three dams on the Euphrates. In November, they captured the Tishrin Dam, near the northern town of Manbij. And last week, they took the Baath dam, close to al-Furat.

In Damascus, activists reported clashes and shelling mostly in the northeastern neighborhoods of Jobar and Qaboun as well as the southern parts of the city.

Over the past four days, the rebels brought their fight to within a mile of the heart of the capital, seizing army checkpoints and cutting a key highway.

Syrian TV showed footage from Abbasid Square, a landmark plaza in central Damascus, after sunset Monday to counter activists' claims of fighting only hundreds of yards away. The footage showed little traffic in the square, and it was dark.

Car bomb strikes
Meanwhile, the Observatory said members of Jabhat al-Nusra blew themselves up in two car bombs outside an intelligence office in the northeastern city of Shadadah, killing at least 14 security agents and wounding many people.

The Observatory said Shadadah has been witnessing heavy clashes between troops and rebels.

Jabhat al-Nusra, which led the fighting at the dam, has been named by the U.S. government as a terrorist organization. It has proved to be the most effective group among rebels fighting in Syria.

Also in northern Syria, a car bomb exploded at a border crossing with Turkey in Idlib province. Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said 13 people died in the blast. He didn't specifically say the explosion was caused by a bomb, possibly in deference to an ongoing investigation, but he left little doubt that authorities believed it was the work of assailants.

"The incident is very important in showing to what extent our stance on terror and our sensibility toward Syrian incidents is well-directed," Erdogan said.

The border area between the two countries has seen fierce fighting in the civil war. Tensions have also flared between the Syrian regime and Turkey in the past months after shells fired from Syria landed on the Turkish side.

As a result, Germany, the Netherlands and the United States decided to send two batteries of Patriot air defense missiles each to protect Turkey, their NATO ally.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on February 12, 2013, 03:23:04 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on February 12, 2013, 03:11:45 AM
Not to be outdone by their more secular competitors, the Islamists seize the most import Dam in Syria and Iraq.

One wonders who this latter day Yamashita, the new Tiger of Syria might be.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Habbaku on February 27, 2013, 06:06:41 PM
Syrian urban combat porn with old tanks :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=x2TLS1sqMl8

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=efb_1359418903
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on February 27, 2013, 07:35:36 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on February 27, 2013, 06:06:41 PM
Syrian urban combat porn with old tanks :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=x2TLS1sqMl8

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=efb_1359418903

I'm guessing the reactive armor didn't work. It made pretty bangs when the thing was burning though....
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on February 28, 2013, 12:49:47 AM
Kind of surprising how long the other two tanks just sat there - they are lucky the terrorebelrgents didn't have two more of those.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Habbaku on February 28, 2013, 01:02:57 AM
Quote from: Berkut on February 28, 2013, 12:49:47 AM
Kind of surprising how long the other two tanks just sat there - they are lucky the terrorebelrgents didn't have two more of those.

I'm guessing that they don't exactly have the most veteran/well-trained tankers in the world, but...yes.  I am pretty surprised their priority wasn't to simply bug out after seeing that one lit up right beside them.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on February 28, 2013, 02:40:15 AM
Quote from: Viking on February 27, 2013, 07:35:36 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on February 27, 2013, 06:06:41 PM
Syrian urban combat porn with old tanks :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=x2TLS1sqMl8

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=efb_1359418903

I'm guessing the reactive armor didn't work. It made pretty bangs when the thing was burning though....

Tandem warhead.  Will defeat reactive armor.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on February 28, 2013, 12:00:50 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 28, 2013, 12:49:47 AM
Kind of surprising how long the other two tanks just sat there - they are lucky the terrorebelrgents didn't have two more of those.

Yeah, I was wondering if they had anyone in them before I noticed the cupola moving around on the one on the right.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on February 28, 2013, 03:08:48 PM
Quote from: Viking on February 27, 2013, 07:35:36 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on February 27, 2013, 06:06:41 PM
Syrian urban combat porn with old tanks :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=x2TLS1sqMl8

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=efb_1359418903

I'm guessing the reactive armor didn't work. It made pretty bangs when the thing was burning though....

Do those tanks even have reactive armour?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on February 28, 2013, 03:09:48 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 28, 2013, 12:49:47 AM
Kind of surprising how long the other two tanks just sat there - they are lucky the terrorebelrgents didn't have two more of those.

I'm surprised their arty didn't TK them for not moving fast enough.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on February 28, 2013, 03:11:06 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on February 28, 2013, 03:09:48 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 28, 2013, 12:49:47 AM
Kind of surprising how long the other two tanks just sat there - they are lucky the terrorebelrgents didn't have two more of those.

I'm surprised their arty didn't TK them for not moving fast enough.

They will get it when they respawn.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on February 28, 2013, 03:15:44 PM
Quote from: Malthus on February 28, 2013, 03:08:48 PM
Quote from: Viking on February 27, 2013, 07:35:36 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on February 27, 2013, 06:06:41 PM
Syrian urban combat porn with old tanks :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=x2TLS1sqMl8

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=efb_1359418903

I'm guessing the reactive armor didn't work. It made pretty bangs when the thing was burning though....

Do those tanks even have reactive armour?

I don't see any, and I don't believe it's ever applied to the rear (where it was hit) anyway.  People always assume those things always carry reactive armor even when you can't see those bricks.

I'm amazed they had a crewman able to bail out & run to safety.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on February 28, 2013, 04:39:58 PM
Quote from: derspiess on February 28, 2013, 03:15:44 PM
Quote from: Malthus on February 28, 2013, 03:08:48 PM
Quote from: Viking on February 27, 2013, 07:35:36 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on February 27, 2013, 06:06:41 PM
Syrian urban combat porn with old tanks :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=x2TLS1sqMl8

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=efb_1359418903

I'm guessing the reactive armor didn't work. It made pretty bangs when the thing was burning though....

Do those tanks even have reactive armour?

I don't see any, and I don't believe it's ever applied to the rear (where it was hit) anyway.  People always assume those things always carry reactive armor even when you can't see those bricks.

I'm amazed they had a crewman able to bail out & run to safety.

I read somewhere that he was likely actually forcibly blown out the hatch by expanding gas within the fighting compartment. Hard to say if he lives through it though - almost certianly going to have extreme burns, you can see most of his clothes are blown off.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on February 28, 2013, 05:38:59 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 28, 2013, 04:39:58 PM
I read somewhere that he was likely actually forcibly blown out the hatch by expanding gas within the fighting compartment. Hard to say if he lives through it though - almost certianly going to have extreme burns, you can see most of his clothes are blown off.

He was able to get away under his own power-- I bet he survives.  Until he gets whacked by rebels, of course.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: 11B4V on February 28, 2013, 05:40:11 PM
Syrian T-72 w/ reactive armor

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yeYGcp0ATlk
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: 11B4V on February 28, 2013, 05:42:01 PM
Quote from: Viking on February 27, 2013, 07:35:36 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on February 27, 2013, 06:06:41 PM
Syrian urban combat porn with old tanks :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=x2TLS1sqMl8

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=efb_1359418903

I'm guessing the reactive armor didn't work. It made pretty bangs when the thing was burning though....

Those T-72's do not have Reative armor in the vid.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: 11B4V on February 28, 2013, 05:43:53 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on January 08, 2013, 10:16:47 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on January 08, 2013, 09:02:38 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on January 08, 2013, 05:18:32 AM
This has got to be the biggest truck bomb I've ever seen! Damn!

Because you've been around so many.
There's a thing called video Seedy, you might want to look into it.

You can't deny that one's huge.

That's what she said.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on March 01, 2013, 03:04:10 AM
We did see what the rocket firers did after firing... they ran like crazy. We did hear firing in the background, presumably a good deal of it was into the smoke cloud the rocket left. T-72s run on diesel, perhaps they were pre-heating the fuel, perhaps they were more worried about small arms fire. Perhaps they have been trained to stick together and not scatter.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 01, 2013, 07:19:15 AM
Quote from: Berkut on February 28, 2013, 04:39:58 PM
I read somewhere that he was likely actually forcibly blown out the hatch by expanding gas within the fighting compartment. Hard to say if he lives through it though - almost certianly going to have extreme burns, you can see most of his clothes are blown off.

Yeah, it looked like he got tossed right out of the hatch by the blast;  he ran, but probably only because his body didn't know how fucked up it was at the moment.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on March 01, 2013, 07:53:32 AM
Quote from: Viking on March 01, 2013, 03:04:10 AM
We did see what the rocket firers did after firing... they ran like crazy. We did hear firing in the background, presumably a good deal of it was into the smoke cloud the rocket left. T-72s run on diesel, perhaps they were pre-heating the fuel, perhaps they were more worried about small arms fire. Perhaps they have been trained to stick together and not scatter.

Or perhaps combat simply doesn't move as fast as does in the movies.  It's hard to see out of those tanks, they probably didn't know which way to run.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: 11B4V on March 01, 2013, 10:49:33 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 01, 2013, 07:19:15 AM
Quote from: Berkut on February 28, 2013, 04:39:58 PM
I read somewhere that he was likely actually forcibly blown out the hatch by expanding gas within the fighting compartment. Hard to say if he lives through it though - almost certianly going to have extreme burns, you can see most of his clothes are blown off.

Yeah, it looked like he got tossed right out of the hatch by the blast;  he ran, but probably only because his body didn't know how fucked up it was at the moment.

It would appear the ammo storage for the T-72 auto loader is not conducive to very good crew survivability.   :lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on March 01, 2013, 10:51:38 AM
Yeah, Soviets definitely have a habit of blurring the distinction between ammo racks and reactive armor.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: 11B4V on March 01, 2013, 10:54:05 AM
Quote from: DGuller on March 01, 2013, 10:51:38 AM
Yeah, Soviets definitely have a habit of blurring the distinction between ammo racks and reactive armor.

hehe. Igor I told you the explosive armor goes on the outside of de tank  :D.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Phillip V on March 04, 2013, 08:04:54 PM
40 Syrian soldiers killed in Iraq

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/05/world/middleeast/fighting-escalates-in-syrian-city-opposition-says.html
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 04, 2013, 10:01:07 PM
Quote from: 11B4V on March 01, 2013, 10:54:05 AM
Quote from: DGuller on March 01, 2013, 10:51:38 AM
Yeah, Soviets definitely have a habit of blurring the distinction between ammo racks and reactive armor.

hehe. Igor I told you the explosive armor goes on the outside of de tank  :D.

In Russian Tank, armor reacts to you.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on March 05, 2013, 09:40:00 AM
Good thing SirHockey's not here.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on March 05, 2013, 10:41:20 AM
Given the various radical groups have  been more mixed into the Rebel factions as time has gone on, I'm almost hoping that Assad remains in power. This is going to be a major mess if/when Assad falls, with the stronger possibility of more extreme factions taking/sharing power. At least that's how it looks to me at this point.

The West has stayed out of it for too long, worried that they'd be supporting extremist groups. But that waiting seems to have been self defeating, giving the extreme groups more chance to get more involved. Perhaps the US and what ever Euro nations that would be so inclinded should have tried harder to work with at least some of the identifiable more moderate factions. Plus if Assad falls the West will have less influence, having kept out of things for so long anyway.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Phillip V on March 06, 2013, 01:51:03 PM
Syrian Rebels Abduct 20 U.N. Soldiers in the Golan Heights

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/07/world/europe/syria-developments.html
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on March 06, 2013, 02:35:44 PM
So for each 10s of millions of arms the US indirectly supply to the rebels, we'll exclude the Saudis and Qatar for the moment, how much will ultimately spent in dealing with the new spreading Jihadist quagmire created ?

Tens of billions ? :unsure:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on March 06, 2013, 02:39:50 PM
Quote from: mongers on March 06, 2013, 02:35:44 PM
So for each 10s of millions of arms the US indirectly supply to the rebels, we'll exclude the Saudis and Qatar for the moment, how much will ultimately spent in dealing with the new spreading Jihadist quagmire created ?

Tens of billions ? :unsure:

If we are lucky.  But the threatened Jihadist quagmire in Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia did not emerge.  Maybe everybody will be too tired after years and years and years of war to bother.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on March 06, 2013, 02:46:48 PM
Quote from: Valmy on March 06, 2013, 02:39:50 PM
Quote from: mongers on March 06, 2013, 02:35:44 PM
So for each 10s of millions of arms the US indirectly supply to the rebels, we'll exclude the Saudis and Qatar for the moment, how much will ultimately spent in dealing with the new spreading Jihadist quagmire created ?

Tens of billions ? :unsure:

If we are lucky.  But the threatened Jihadist quagmire in Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia did not emerge.  Maybe everybody will be too tired after years and years and years of war to bother.

I'm not sure many people were suggesting that in the first place, ok Libya has it's problems, but much of the conflict seems to be clan based with a few free radical islamists thrown in.

The bigger issue with Libya seems to be the lack of control over the vast weapons depots left unguarded after the revolution. With some of it passing into the hands of ex-mercenaries/Tuareg militias who either went home or spread into neighbouring Saharan countries. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on March 06, 2013, 02:53:50 PM
Quote from: Phillip V on March 06, 2013, 01:51:03 PM
Syrian Rebels Abduct 20 U.N. Soldiers in the Golan Heights

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/07/world/europe/syria-developments.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=jdCB9yE9Hcc#t=5s
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 06, 2013, 03:09:06 PM
Quote from: Valmy on March 06, 2013, 02:39:50 PM
If we are lucky.  But the threatened Jihadist quagmire in Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia did not emerge.  Maybe everybody will be too tired after years and years and years of war to bother.


Don't worry;  like a bag of chips, it will all settle during transit and will eventually get messier before it gets better.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 06, 2013, 03:37:37 PM
Quote from: mongers on March 06, 2013, 02:35:44 PM
So for each 10s of millions of arms the US indirectly supply to the rebels, we'll exclude the Saudis and Qatar for the moment, how much will ultimately spent in dealing with the new spreading Jihadist quagmire created ?

Tens of billions ? :unsure:

I heard about the decision to provide nonlethatl supplies, but nothing about arms.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 06, 2013, 03:41:49 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 06, 2013, 03:37:37 PM
I heard about the decision to provide nonlethatl supplies, but nothing about arms.

We're not providing them directly, but we have been encouraging those parties that wish to do so.

QuoteAt a news conference in Doha with Qatar's Prime Minister Sheik Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber al-Thani, Kerry said Tuesday that "there are greater guarantees that weapons are being transferred to moderates and directly to the Syrian opposition."

He added that, "you can't guarantee that one weapon or another may not fall, in that kind of a situation, into hands that you don't want it in."

In Qatar, Kerry was wrapping up a nine-country swing through Europe and the Middle East, his first international tour since becoming secretary of state.

"We had a discussion about the types of weapons that are being transferred and by whom," Kerry said. "We did discuss the question of the ability to try to guarantee that it's going to the right people and to the moderate Syrian opposition coalition."

Because, you know, it's so much more reliable that way.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on March 06, 2013, 06:47:50 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 06, 2013, 03:41:49 PM
Because, you know, it's so much more reliable that way.

Background checks and gun registration is the obvious solution.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on March 19, 2013, 09:00:30 PM
More bad news

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/19/17370550-suffocating-in-the-streets-chemical-weapons-attack-reported-in-syria?lite

QuoteBy Ian Johnston, Charlene Gubash and Ammar Cheikomar, NBC News

A chemical weapon was used during fierce fighting in a strategically important Syrian town, rebels and the government claimed Tuesday, with each side blaming the other for the deadly attack.

If it is confirmed that a banned chemical agent was used, it could significantly change the international response to the ongoing civil war.

The death toll was put at 25 by Syria's state-run SANA news agency, which said dozens of other people were injured.

A photographer for the Reuters news agency visited hospitals in the city of Aleppo, and said a number of patients had breathing difficulties. They told him of people dying and "suffocating in the streets."

SANA blamed the rebels for the attack, which happened in Khan al-Asal in Aleppo province.

"Terrorists on Tuesday launched a rocket containing chemical materials," it said.

"Initial information indicated that about 16 citizens were killed, and 86 others were injured, most of them are in critical condition. Later, the death toll due to the firing of the rocket rose up to 25 martyrs," it added.

SANA's website showed photographs of a number of people, including several children, in what appeared to be a hospital.

'Convulsions, then death'
Information Minister Omran al-Zoabi said that "the substance in the rocket causes unconsciousness, then convulsions, then death," Reuters reported.

Mohammad al-Shafae, a member of the Local Coordination Committees in western Aleppo, said the attack happened around 8 a.m.

Rebel spokesman Fahd al Masry said a Scud missile was fired by the government and that "most probably" chemical weapons had been used. "This is not the first time," he added.

There was "a state of panic and fear among the civilians and dozens of cases of suffocating and poisoning," he said.

Masry said the attack would not have happened if foreign governments had taken stronger action.

"They wouldn't have used it if not for the silence of the international community on the crimes and massacres committed in Syria for the past two years," he said.

Masry said that the rebel forces may "be forced to reevaluate the rules of engagement in the coming days."

Ahmad al-Ahmad, a media activist near Khan al-Asal, said state media reports blaming the rebels for the attack were "ridiculous."

"This is ridiculous and cheap and stupid because we do not have these weapons and we do not know how to use them," he said.

Khan al-Asal is the last town in the area to the west of Aleppo that has not been taken by the rebels, and if it fell that would hamper the flow of supplies to the regime's forces in the city.

The town's population has traditionally been split between Sunni Muslims, who tend to be sympathetic toward the rebels, and Shiites, who are more likely to be supporters of President Bashar Assad.

White House spokesman Jay Carney said Tuesday the U.S. was looking carefully at allegations that both sides are using chemical weapons, but he said he was skeptical of any claims made by the Syrian regime, The Associated Press reported.

He added there was no evidence to back up the Assad regime's claim that Syrian rebels have used chemical weapons.

Carney said it was a serious concern for the U.S. that the Assad regime could use such weapons, the AP reported. He said President Barack Obama believed that would be unacceptable and that there would be consequences.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon spoke Tuesday with Ahmet Üzümcü, director general of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) and expressed his "deep concern" about the alleged use of chemical weapons, according to a statement released by the United Nations.

"The Secretary-General remains convinced that the use of chemical weapons by any party under any circumstances would constitute an outrageous crime," the statement read.

On Dec. 24, there were claims that a number of Syrians were killed after inhaling "poisonous gases" released by government forces in rebel-held areas of the city of Homs.

OPCW spokesman Michael Louhan said the body was asked by the United Nations to give its assessment of this incident, but it was unable to find any "conclusive information regarding whether they were banned chemical weapon substances or not."

According to the international body, the Chemical Weapons Convention says it was created "for the sake of all mankind, to exclude completely the possibility" of their use.

'Abhorrent'
The U.K., which recently announced it was sending armored vehicles to the rebel forces, warned Tuesday that if the use of chemical weapons was confirmed it would change its approach.

"We are aware of today's press reports alleging that a chemical weapon was fired in the north of Syria and we are looking into this," a spokesman for the U.K. Foreign Office said.

"The use of chemical weapons would be abhorrent and would be universally condemned," he added. "The U.K. is clear that the use or proliferation of chemical weapons would demand a serious response from the international community and force us to revisit our approach so far."

Russia – one of Syria's dwindling number of allies - blamed the opposition, saying it was "seriously concerned" that "weapons of mass destruction are falling into the hands of the rebels," according to a foreign ministry statement reported by Reuters.

The Reuters photographer said victims he had visited in Aleppo hospitals were "mostly women and children."

"They said that people were suffocating in the streets and the air smelt strongly of chlorine," said the photographer, who Reuters said cannot be named for his own safety.

The photographer quoted victims he met at the University of Aleppo hospital and the al-Rajaa hospital as saying: "People were dying in the streets and in their houses."

Reuters described footage aired by Syrian state television:

    Men, women and children were rushed inside on stretchers as doctors inserted medical drips into their arms and oxygen tubes into their mouths. None had visible wounds to their bodies, but some interviewed said they had trouble breathing.

    An unidentified doctor interviewed on the channel said the attack was either "phosphorus or poison" but did not elaborate.

    "The Free Syrian Army hit us with a rocket, we smelled something and then everyone got dizzy and fell down. People were falling to the ground, " said a sobbing woman, lying on a stretcher with a drip in her arm.

    A young girl on a stretcher wept as she said: "My chest closed up. I couldn't talk. I couldn't breathe ... We saw people falling dead to the floor. My father fell, he fell and now we don't know where he is. God curse them, I hope they die."

    A man in a green surgical mask, who said he had been helping to evacuate the casualties, said: "It was like a powder, and anyone who breathed it in fell to the ground."

Reuters, The Associated Press and NBC News' John Newland contributed to this report.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on March 19, 2013, 11:30:04 PM
Tim, this could be as innocuous as the intentional use or accidental release of a 'riot gas' like CS, which iirc is a banned weapon of war in international conflicts, but not so in a civil war. 

I'm not sure that there is a lot to see here, other than the rebel PR or government propagandists getting desperate. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 20, 2013, 07:10:13 AM
We could find out what Obama's "red line" means.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on March 20, 2013, 02:00:21 PM
I hope lots of those jihadis die slow and horrible deaths there. We absolutely do not want them back over here
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on April 10, 2013, 01:45:35 PM
The Al-Nusra Front, possibly the most effective rebel/insurgent group in Syria, pledges allegiance to al-Qaeda.  :hmm:

Quote
Syria crisis: Al-Nusra pledges allegiance to al-Qaeda

The leader of the al-Nusra Front, a jihadist group fighting in Syria, has pledged allegiance to the leader of al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri.

Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani said the group's behaviour in Syria would not change as a result.

Al-Nusra claims to have carried out many suicide bombings and guerrilla attacks against state targets.

On Tuesday, al-Qaeda in Iraq announced a merger with al-Nusra, but Mr Jawlani said he had not been consulted on this.

Al-Nusra has been designated as a terrorist organisation by the US.

Debates among Western leaders over whether to arm Syria's rebels have often raised the concern of weapons ending up in the hands of groups such as al-Nusra.

"The sons of al-Nusra Front pledge allegiance to Sheikh Ayman al-Zawahiri," Mr Jawlani said in a recording released on Wednesday.

....

rest of article here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22095099 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22095099)


Things are going so well for all outside actors in Syria, pity the poor Syrians in the middle of this.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 10, 2013, 02:28:23 PM
Quote from: mongers on April 10, 2013, 01:45:35 PM
The Al-Nusra Front, possibly the most effective rebel/insurgent group in Syria, pledges allegiance to al-Qaeda.  :hmm:

Yes, by all means, give them weapons.  WHAT COULD HAPPEN
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on April 10, 2013, 02:35:43 PM
Is anyone seriously suggesting that we should arm the "rebels" in Syria?

I haven't followed it all that much, to be honest - seems like a relatively clear case of "Fuck that, not touching that conflict with a ten foot pool..."
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 10, 2013, 04:14:29 PM
Quote from: Berkut on April 10, 2013, 02:35:43 PM
Is anyone seriously suggesting that we should arm the "rebels" in Syria?

Yes, yes they are.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on April 10, 2013, 04:45:47 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 10, 2013, 04:14:29 PM
Quote from: Berkut on April 10, 2013, 02:35:43 PM
Is anyone seriously suggesting that we should arm the "rebels" in Syria?

Yes, yes they are.

Daniel Pipes is actually advocating that "we" are the Syrian Government on the grounds that they are the devil we know, and if "we" can drag out this conflict maybe they will all kill each other.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 10, 2013, 05:04:12 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 10, 2013, 02:28:23 PM
Quote from: mongers on April 10, 2013, 01:45:35 PM
The Al-Nusra Front, possibly the most effective rebel/insurgent group in Syria, pledges allegiance to al-Qaeda.  :hmm:

Yes, by all means, give them weapons.  WHAT COULD HAPPEN
People wanted to arm the secular rebels who predominated during the beginning of the civil war. We didn't and there has been progressive radicalization of the war as the Gulf states have armed and supported fundamentalist factions. Who would have guessed that would have happened? Oh right, everyone.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on April 10, 2013, 06:38:34 PM
I'm pro Assad. Because he has a hot wife.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 10, 2013, 06:56:55 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 10, 2013, 05:04:12 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 10, 2013, 02:28:23 PM
Quote from: mongers on April 10, 2013, 01:45:35 PM
The Al-Nusra Front, possibly the most effective rebel/insurgent group in Syria, pledges allegiance to al-Qaeda.  :hmm:

Yes, by all means, give them weapons.  WHAT COULD HAPPEN
People wanted to arm the secular rebels who predominated during the beginning of the civil war. We didn't and there has been progressive radicalization of the war as the Gulf states have armed and supported fundamentalist factions. Who would have guessed that would have happened? Oh right, everyone.

"Secular rebels"?  Like in Libya, where the weapons are all over the fucking place now?  Hmm, yeah. 
Fuck "secular rebels".  Today's "secular rebels" are tomorrow's jihadist shitballs using our hardware against Israel. Like I trust the CIA's background checks on gun transactions with that crowd.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on April 10, 2013, 07:01:56 PM
Any update on Allah's status?  Is he still great?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on April 10, 2013, 07:05:57 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 10, 2013, 06:38:34 PM
I'm pro Assad. Because he has a hot wife.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fohgodmywifeisgerman.files.wordpress.com%2F2013%2F03%2Fgi-joe-the-baroness-sexy-cartoon-character1.jpeg&hash=438fb16a48111173239c0e9478ead225b21dd976)

this one or the skinny one?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on April 10, 2013, 10:19:24 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 10, 2013, 07:01:56 PM
Any update on Allah's status?  Is he still great?

Yep, sounds like it.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on April 10, 2013, 10:20:37 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 10, 2013, 05:04:12 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 10, 2013, 02:28:23 PM
Quote from: mongers on April 10, 2013, 01:45:35 PM
The Al-Nusra Front, possibly the most effective rebel/insurgent group in Syria, pledges allegiance to al-Qaeda.  :hmm:

Yes, by all means, give them weapons.  WHAT COULD HAPPEN
People wanted to arm the secular rebels who predominated during the beginning of the civil war. We didn't and there has been progressive radicalization of the war as the Gulf states have armed and supported fundamentalist factions. Who would have guessed that would have happened? Oh right, everyone.

Yeah, Tim. It would've made such a huge-ass difference had we armed these "secular" rebels.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on April 30, 2013, 11:42:40 PM

Quote

BEIRUT (AP) — The leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group said Tuesday that Syrian rebels will not be able to defeat President Bashar Assad's regime militarily, strongly suggesting that Syria's "real friends" including his Iranian-backed militant group would intervene on the government's side if the need arises.
The powerful Shiite Muslim group is known to be backing Syrian regime fighters in Shiite villages near the Lebanon border against the mostly Sunni rebels fighting to topple Assad. But the comments by Sheik Hassan Nasrallah were the strongest indication yet that his group was ready to get more substantially involved to rescue Assad's embattled regime.
"Syria has real friends in the region and in the world who will not allow Syria to fall in the hands of America or Israel or the Takfiris," he said, referring to followers of an al-Qaida like extremist idology.
Hezbollah and Iran are close allies of Assad. Both have been accused by rebels of sending fighters to assist Syrian troops trying to crush the 2-year-old Syrian uprising as it morphed into a civil war.
Nasrallah said Tuesday that now there are now no Iranian forces in Syria, except for some experts who he said have been in Syria for decades. But he added: "What do you imagine would happen in the future if things deteriorate in a way that requires the intervention of the forces of resistance in this battle?"
Hezbollah has an arsenal that is the most powerful military force in Lebanon, stronger than the national army. Its growing involvement in the Syrian civil war is already raising tensions inside the divided country and has drawn threats from enraged Syrian rebels and militants.
Nasrallah also said his fighters had a duty to protect the holy Shiite shrine of Sayida Zeinab, named for the granddaughter of Islam's Prophet Muhammad's, south of Damascus.
He said rebels were able to capture several villages around the shrine and gunmen were deployed hundreds of meters (yards) away from the shrine who have threatened to destroy it.
"If the shrine is destroyed things will get out of control," Nasrallah said citing the 2006 bombing of the Shiite al-Askari shrine in the Iraqi city of Samarra. That attack was blamed on al-Qaida in Iraq and set off years of retaliatory bloodshed between Sunni and Shiite extremists that left thousands of Iraqis dead and pushed the country to the brink of civil war.
Nasrallah also said that accusations that the regime has used chemical weapons were an attempt to justify foreign intervention in Syria.
While there has been growing speculation about Hezbollah's role in the conflict next door, the violence inside Syria has raged on, including in the capital, where a powerful bomb on Tuesday ripped through a bustling commercial district, killing at least 14 people.
The blast shattered store fronts, set cars ablaze and brought Syria's civil war to the heart of Damascus for the second consecutive day.
On Monday, Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi narrowly escaped an assassination attempt after a car bomb targeted his convoy as it drove through a posh Damascus neighborhood. The bombings appear to be part of an accelerated campaign by opposition forces to hit Assad's regime in the heavily defended capital.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on May 03, 2013, 09:35:37 PM
Gripping viewing about the conflict between different religions in the Orontes valley:

http://www.channel4.com/programmes/dispatches/4od#3510024 (http://www.channel4.com/programmes/dispatches/4od#3510024)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on May 14, 2013, 07:55:18 PM
The rebel shown cutting out and taking a bit of a government soldier's heart*, is this man, he was features in a channel4 news report in August last year:

http://www.channel4.com/news/syria-rebel-eating-heart-soldier-abu-sakkar-mani (http://www.channel4.com/news/syria-rebel-eating-heart-soldier-abu-sakkar-mani)




*apparently it looked more like a part of the dead man's lung.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: 11B4V on May 14, 2013, 08:13:29 PM
Quote from: mongers on May 14, 2013, 07:55:18 PM
The rebel shown cutting out and taking a bit of a government soldier's heart*, is this man, he was features in a channel4 news report in August last year:

http://www.channel4.com/news/syria-rebel-eating-heart-soldier-abu-sakkar-mani (http://www.channel4.com/news/syria-rebel-eating-heart-soldier-abu-sakkar-mani)






*apparently it looked more like a part of the dead man's lung.

They're barbarians. This surprises you?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 14, 2013, 08:16:18 PM
Quote from: 11B4V on May 14, 2013, 08:13:29 PM
They're barbarians. This surprises you?

We should arm them immediately.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: 11B4V on May 14, 2013, 08:17:39 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 14, 2013, 08:16:18 PM
Quote from: 11B4V on May 14, 2013, 08:13:29 PM
They're barbarians. This surprises you?

We should arm them immediately.

='s another Obama scandal.  :lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on May 14, 2013, 08:18:27 PM
Quote from: 11B4V on May 14, 2013, 08:17:39 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 14, 2013, 08:16:18 PM
Quote from: 11B4V on May 14, 2013, 08:13:29 PM
They're barbarians. This surprises you?

We should arm them immediately.

='s another Obama scandal.  :lol:

:lol:

Oh, wait.  There are no scandals. ZERO scandals right now.  SeedySezSo.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 14, 2013, 08:22:57 PM
It's a complex issue.  Very nuanced.  I wouldn't expect you to understand.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on May 14, 2013, 08:26:39 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 14, 2013, 08:22:57 PM
It's a complex issue.  Very nuanced.  I wouldn't expect you to understand.

:D Anyway, which barbarians should we arm?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on May 14, 2013, 08:30:22 PM
Quote from: derspiess on May 14, 2013, 08:26:39 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 14, 2013, 08:22:57 PM
It's a complex issue.  Very nuanced.  I wouldn't expect you to understand.

:D Anyway, which barbarians should we arm?

The ones that are losing?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 14, 2013, 08:30:37 PM
I'd rather we just airdrop General Dostum in there.  Problems solved.  All of them.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on May 14, 2013, 08:32:00 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 14, 2013, 08:30:37 PM
I'd rather we just airdrop General Dostum in there.  Problems solved.  All of them.

especially the ones we have in afghanistan... and first among those is where the hookers and booze at?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 14, 2013, 08:38:47 PM
General Dostum has his own website.  I found it ironic that the only banner ad on it is for something called "Ingel International Insurance", specializing in "Medical-Life-Disability-Accidental Death-Evacuation-High Risk Destinations".
Available for individuals and groups.  :lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on May 14, 2013, 08:40:14 PM
Dostum. :wub:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on May 14, 2013, 08:40:22 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 14, 2013, 08:38:47 PM
General Dostum has his own website.  I found it ironic that the only banner ad on it is for something called "Ingel International Insurance", specializing in "Medical-Life-Disability-Accidental Death-Evacuation-High Risk Destinations".
Available for individuals and groups.  :lol:

I sure Dostum takes out policies for all his guests.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on May 14, 2013, 08:41:45 PM
Quote from: Viking on May 14, 2013, 08:30:22 PM
Quote from: derspiess on May 14, 2013, 08:26:39 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 14, 2013, 08:22:57 PM
It's a complex issue.  Very nuanced.  I wouldn't expect you to understand.

:D Anyway, which barbarians should we arm?

The ones that are losing?

So then they're winning can we shift to the other side?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on May 14, 2013, 08:42:35 PM
Quote from: derspiess on May 14, 2013, 08:41:45 PM
Quote from: Viking on May 14, 2013, 08:30:22 PM
Quote from: derspiess on May 14, 2013, 08:26:39 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 14, 2013, 08:22:57 PM
It's a complex issue.  Very nuanced.  I wouldn't expect you to understand.

:D Anyway, which barbarians should we arm?

The ones that are losing?

So then they're winning can we shift to the other side?

Thats pretty much the idea.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: 11B4V on May 16, 2013, 12:51:08 AM
Apparently "Vetted" groups


QuoteBipartisan pull pushes weapons for Syrian rebels
By Josh Levs, CNN
updated 1:48 PM EDT, Wed May 15, 2013
STORY HIGHLIGHTS

    Top Democrat, Republican on Senate Foreign Relations Committee push arms for rebels
    They introduce bipartisan bill set for consideration by the committee next week
    Sen. Bob Corker adds weight to original proposal by panel chair Robert Menendez

(CNN) -- Washington's battle over whether the United States should get involved in Syria's civil war took a new turn on Wednesday as the two top senators on the Foreign Relations Committee called for arming rebels and announced that the panel would take up their proposal next week.

Sen. Robert Menendez, the committee's Democratic chairman, and Sen. Bob Corker, the panel's top Republican, introduced legislation to provide lethal weaponry and training "to vetted Syrian groups" fighting forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad, they announced in a statement.

"To change the tipping point in Syria against the Assad regime, we must support the opposition by providing lethal arms and help build a free Syria," Menendez said in the statement.

"Vital national interests are at stake and we cannot watch from the sidelines as the Iranian presence in Syria grows, a growing refugee crisis threatens to destabilize the region, chemical weapons are used against the Syrian people, and al Qaeda-affiliated groups take root there."

The United States recently boosted non-lethal aid to Syrian rebels but pressure is growing for an accelerated and more muscular western response to the crisis following the American disclosure in recent weeks that it believes chemical weapons were used in Syria.

The Obama administration has cited the potential for American weapons to reach terrorist organizations as a reason not to arm the rebels.

But Corker said the United States "has a vested interest in trying to prevent an extremist takeover, which poses a very real risk for us and the region. Without authorizing the use of force (by the United States) or additional spending, this legislation will begin to implement a more coherent U.S. strategy, both now and for the day after" al-Assad's regime falls.

Menendez offered similar legislation last week. The one introduced Wednesday was bipartisan and contained a new provision requiring the Obama administration "to work with Congress and keep it fully apprised of strategy towards Syria, including working through the international community and Russia to find a political settlement."

The "Syria Transition Support Act" also calls for military training and both lethal and non-lethal arms for vetted groups; a $250 million "transition fund each year" through fiscal year 2015, and sanctions on oil sales to al-Assad.

Many lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are pushing the Obama administration to get involved in the deadly conflict. But many analysts believe there's little the United States can do to influence, let alone control, the situation.

The United Nations estimates the two-year civil war has claimed more than 70,000 lives.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on May 16, 2013, 01:19:11 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 14, 2013, 08:16:18 PM
Quote from: 11B4V on May 14, 2013, 08:13:29 PM
They're barbarians. This surprises you?

We should arm them immediately.
What's the point, they'll just eat the arms.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on May 16, 2013, 03:09:03 AM
Here's a video from the regime forces perspective:

Syria Republican guard fighting FSA in Darayya 1 5
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTsbkyScIII (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTsbkyScIII)




Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on May 16, 2013, 06:01:34 AM
Quote from: mongers on May 14, 2013, 07:55:18 PM
The rebel shown cutting out and taking a bit of a government soldier's heart*, is this man, he was features in a channel4 news report in August last year:

http://www.channel4.com/news/syria-rebel-eating-heart-soldier-abu-sakkar-mani (http://www.channel4.com/news/syria-rebel-eating-heart-soldier-abu-sakkar-mani)




*apparently it looked more like a part of the dead man's lung.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAen_16QLPw
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on May 27, 2013, 05:16:33 PM
EU ministers agree to arm Syrian rebels. The vetted ones of course.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on May 27, 2013, 05:20:27 PM
Sen. McCain visits Syrian rebels.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 27, 2013, 07:46:09 PM
Quote from: citizen k on May 27, 2013, 05:16:33 PM
EU ministers agree to arm Syrian rebels. The vetted ones of course.

So what happens when they change their tune later on down the road?  Is there a plan to get the weapons back?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on May 27, 2013, 07:47:11 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 27, 2013, 07:46:09 PM
Quote from: citizen k on May 27, 2013, 05:16:33 PM
EU ministers agree to arm Syrian rebels. The vetted ones of course.

So what happens when they change their tune later on down the road?  Is there a plan to get the weapons back?

A strongly worded letter from EU ministers has been pre-prepared.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 27, 2013, 09:41:03 PM
Activate the self destruct mechanisms.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on May 27, 2013, 09:43:32 PM
It would be nice if we could give the rebels grenades with remotely adjustable fuses.  You can then set them to 0 just for shits and giggles.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 01, 2013, 09:11:05 PM
Maybe some of them aren't so bad after all...right?

QuoteSyrian rockets hit Hezbollah stronghold in Lebanon, influential cleric fans sectarian flames
By Associated Press, Updated: Saturday, June 1, 3:18 PM

BEIRUT — Eighteen rockets and mortars rounds from Syria slammed into Lebanon on Saturday, the largest cross-border salvo to hit a Hezbollah stronghold since Syrian rebels threatened to retaliate for the Lebanese militant group's armed support of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

The rockets targeted the Baalbek region, the latest sign that Syria's civil war is increasingly destabilizing Lebanon. On Friday, the Lebanese parliament decided to put off general elections, originally scheduled for June, by 17 months, blaming a deteriorating security situation in the country.

In Qatar, an influential Sunni Muslim cleric whose TV show is watched by millions across the region, fanned the sectarian flames ignited by the Syria conflict and urged Sunnis everywhere to join the fight against Assad.

"I call on Muslims everywhere to help their brothers be victorious," Yusuf al-Qaradawi said in his Friday sermon in the Qatari capital of Doha. "If I had the ability I would go and fight with them."

"Everyone who has the ability and has training to kill ... is required to go," said al-Qaradawi, who is in his 80s. "We cannot ask our brothers to be killed while we watch."

He denounced Assad's Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam, as "more infidel than Christians and Jews" and Shiite Muslim Hezbollah as "the party of the devil."

He said there is no more common ground between Shiites and Sunnis, alleging that Shiite Iran — a longtime Syria ally that has supplied the regime with cash and weapons — is trying to "devour" Sunnis.

The Syrian conflict, now in its third year, has taken on dark sectarian overtones. It has escalated from a local uprising into a civil war and is not increasingly shifting into a proxy war.

Predominantly Sunni rebels backed by Sunni states Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey are fighting against a regime that relies on support from Alawites, Shiites and Christians at home, and is aided by Iran and Hezbollah. The Syria conflict is also part of a wider battle between Saudi Arabia and Iran for regional influence.

Sunni fighters from Iraq and Lebanon have crossed into Syria to help those fighting Assad, while Shiites from Iraq have joined the battle on the regime's side.

Sectarian tensions rose sharply when Hezbollah stepped up its involvement in the war in mid-May by joining a regime offensive against the rebel-held Syrian town of Qusair, about 10 kilometers (six miles) from Lebanon. The town has since become one of the war's major military and political flashpoints, with international concern growing over civilians believed to be trapped there.

On Saturday, the International Committee of the Red Cross and the United Nation's two top officials dealing with human rights and humanitarian issues said they were alarmed by reports that thousands of civilians are trapped in Qusair and that hundreds of wounded people are in urgent need of medical care.

The U.N. officials called for a cease-fire to allow the wounded to be evacuated. They said more than 10,000 people have fled to two nearby towns and need food, bedding, water and medical care.

The Red Cross said it has requested access to Qusair and is prepared to enter the city immediately to help the civilians there.

Syria's political opposition cited Hezbollah's role in the war and the dire situation in Qusair as reasons for not attending peace talks with the regime in Geneva, which the U.S. and Russia had hoped could be launched at an international conference this month.

Qusair has also become a rallying cry for rebels demanding Western weapons shipments, with the commander of the main Western-backed rebel group warning this week the town could fall soon if such arms are not delivered.

A regime victory in Qusair would deal a demoralizing blow to the rebels and solidify Assad's control over the central province of Homs, the linchpin linking the capital Damascus with the Alawite strongholds on the Mediterranean cost.

For the rebels, holding the town means protecting their supply line to Lebanon. Rebels have sent reinforcements to the town to try to stem the regime advances. Both sides have suffered heavy casualties.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah's role in Syria set off a mounting backlash from the rebels who threatened to target the militia's bases in Lebanon if the militant group does not withdraw its fighters.

Over the past week, Syrian rebels have fired dozens of rockets on Lebanon's northeastern region of Hermel, across the border from Qusair, but Saturday's attack was the first on the Baalbek region, a Hezbollah stronghold.

Sixteen rockets and mortar rounds hit Baalbek early Saturday, igniting fires in fields but causing no casualties. Lebanese security officials, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, said the villages of Yanta, Brital and Saraeen were among the areas struck. Lebanon's National News Agency said two more rockets hit the Baalbek area on Saturday evening.

Also Saturday, gunmen opened fire on a Shiite shrine in the town of Baalbek in an attack that could worsen frictions between Lebanon's Shiites and Sunnis. The shrine of Sayida Khawla, a great granddaughter of the Prophet Muhammad, was attacked shortly after midnight, a security official said.

Lebanon and Syria share a complex web of political and sectarian ties and rivalries that are easily enflamed. Lebanon, itself plagued by decades of strife, has been on edge since the beginning of the Syrian crisis, which began as mostly peaceful protests against Assad's regime but later degenerated into all-out civil war.

Some Lebanese Sunnis support the Syrian rebels, while some Shiites back Assad's regime. In the majority Sunni city of Tripoli in northern Lebanon, Sunnis backing the rebels and Alawites supporting Assad have repeatedly fought each other with rockets and grenades.

Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has firmly linked the militia's fate with that of the Assad regime, but in a speech last week also pledged to keep the fighting out of Lebanon.

Still, a senior Hezbollah commander, Nabil Kaouk, said Saturday that "we will not be silent and will not stand idle" in the wake of Syrian rebel attacks on Hezbollah targets. He spoke during a memorial service for a slain Hezbollah fighter and his comments were carried on the website of Hezbollah-owned Al-Manar TV.

Fawaz A. Gerges, director of the Middle East Center at the London School of Economics, said he believes Hezbollah has made a strategic decision that the battle is in Syria, not Lebanon. "If Hezbollah is provoked, I don't expect it to allow itself to fall into the trap" of responding, he said.

At the same time, the al-Qaradawi comments "are pouring fuel on a raging fire," Gerges said.

The cleric is "putting a sectarian stamp on an essentially geostrategic struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran," he said.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on June 13, 2013, 04:58:53 PM
"Red line" has officially been crossed. Let the bombings begin.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on June 13, 2013, 05:06:24 PM
Quote from: citizen k on June 13, 2013, 04:58:53 PM
"Red line" has officially been crossed. Let the bombings begin.
I would make an argument that the real red line hasn't been crossed yet.  The line that was crossed was the line we wanted others to believe was our red line.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 13, 2013, 05:10:13 PM
Quote from: DGuller on June 13, 2013, 05:06:24 PM
Quote from: citizen k on June 13, 2013, 04:58:53 PM
"Red line" has officially been crossed. Let the bombings begin.
I would make an argument that the real red line hasn't been crossed yet.  The line that was crossed was the line we wanted others to believe was our red line.
The only line that matters is the one you claim and if you don't do anything after it's crossed you lose credibility.

Link to the story
http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/06/13/18940169-obama-administration-syrian-regime-used-chemical-weapons-against-opposition?lite
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on June 13, 2013, 05:17:25 PM
Technically, we didn't promise any action for crossing the stated red line.  Therefore, we can't lose any credibility.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on June 13, 2013, 05:18:50 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on June 13, 2013, 05:10:13 PM
Link to the story
http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/06/13/18940169-obama-administration-syrian-regime-used-chemical-weapons-against-opposition?lite
When reading the link address first time around, I missed "syrian".
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on June 13, 2013, 05:20:21 PM
Quote from: DGuller on June 13, 2013, 05:17:25 PM
Technically, we didn't promise any action for crossing the stated red line.  Therefore, we can't lose any credibility.


.... or else.

apparently that means sending a strongly worded letter. The implied threat that something nasty will be done was the threat that was understood (at least by me). Needless to say the Syrian Army is acting with less and less restraint. This is possibly due to an appreciation that we will not act.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on June 13, 2013, 08:06:59 PM
John McCain has a murder boner that Ed Anger would be proud of. 


Seriously someone needs to retire that old man, something also need to be done about McCain.   :D
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on June 13, 2013, 08:23:12 PM
This UN report announcing that at least 92,000 have been killed in Syria has some interesting detail. It's built on a database of reports from a variety of sources, one of which the pro-rebel Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has perhaps the most detailed certainly the most oft quoted source in UK news outlets.
They report an interesting pattern, the largest group of dead are government/regime forces, next come rebels and third civilian deaths.

My concern, as I mentioned a while back, is this seems atypical for a modern civil war, my concern is as violence increases, civilian deaths will proportionally rise, especially if the ethnic/confessional elements of the conflict increases.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on June 13, 2013, 08:34:30 PM
I'm not advocating for intervention but the US and Europe seem to have mainly bad options now having  waited so long, way too late perhaps. Russia and others like Iran supplying weapons and equipment for a long time to Syria. Iran and Hezbollah have a lot of fighters on the ground and have been very active and successful in pushing back the Rebels, making strong gains. Just seems that only arming the rebels may not be nearly enough now, given that the Govt. forces seem to have been heavily reinforced and reequipped.

Given that so many radical type groups are part of the rebels, I'm not so sure I want to see Assad go now anyway.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 13, 2013, 08:49:04 PM
Quote from: mongers on June 13, 2013, 08:23:12 PM
This UN report announcing that at least 92,000 have been killed in Syria has some interesting detail. It's built on a database of reports from a variety of sources, one of which the pro-rebel Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has perhaps the most detailed certainly the most oft quoted source in UK news outlets.
They report an interesting pattern, the largest group of dead are government/regime forces, next come rebels and third civilian deaths.

My concern, as I mentioned a while back, is this seems atypical for a modern civil war, my concern is as violence increases, civilian deaths will proportionally rise, especially if the ethnic/confessional elements of the conflict increases.

Well isn't it likely that these preliminary results are skewed this way because armies keep track of their soldiers? There are likely a large number of civilians who have been killed that have not yet been counted.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 13, 2013, 08:54:42 PM
Quote from: KRonn on June 13, 2013, 08:34:30 PM
I'm not advocating for intervention but the US and Europe seem to have mainly bad options now having  waited so long, way too late perhaps. Russia and others like Iran supplying weapons and equipment for a long time to Syria. Iran and Hezbollah have a lot of fighters on the ground and have been very active and successful in pushing back the Rebels, making strong gains. Just seems that only arming the rebels may not be nearly enough now, given that the Govt. forces seem to have been heavily reinforced and reequipped.

Now see, this is what'll be refreshing about it;  getting back to a good, old fashioned proxy war backed by the full faith and credit of US ordnance.  And a proxy war with Russia AND Iran, to boot?  How can we say no now?

QuoteGiven that so many radical type groups are part of the rebels, I'm not so sure I want to see Assad go now anyway.

That's because, regardless of what we do, you already know how this is going to turn out.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on June 13, 2013, 08:57:43 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on June 13, 2013, 08:49:04 PM
Quote from: mongers on June 13, 2013, 08:23:12 PM
This UN report announcing that at least 92,000 have been killed in Syria has some interesting detail. It's built on a database of reports from a variety of sources, one of which the pro-rebel Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has perhaps the most detailed certainly the most oft quoted source in UK news outlets.
They report an interesting pattern, the largest group of dead are government/regime forces, next come rebels and third civilian deaths.

My concern, as I mentioned a while back, is this seems atypical for a modern civil war, my concern is as violence increases, civilian deaths will proportionally rise, especially if the ethnic/confessional elements of the conflict increases.

Well isn't it likely that these preliminary results are skewed this way because armies keep track of their soldiers? There are likely a large number of civilians who have been killed that have not yet been counted.

Here's a for instance of how the SOHR reports the daily violence, it's the latest one on their website here:

http://syriahr.com/en/ (http://syriahr.com/en/)

http://syriahr.com/en/index.php?option=com_news&nid=694&Itemid=2&task=displaynews (http://syriahr.com/en/index.php?option=com_news&nid=694&Itemid=2&task=displaynews)

Quote
The dead: 44 civilians (including 4 children), 76 rebels, 32 unidentified rebels, 108 regular forces, 1 defected officer.

By province:
Der'a (12 rebels, 10 civilians). 6 civilians from the same family, including a woman, were killed by bombardment on the village of Ma'riya, which lies by the Jordanian border and by the Occupied parts of the Syrian Golan. 1 child was killed by the bombardment on the town of Tafas.

Latakia (17 rebels). All, including a commander, were killed by clashes with regime forces in the villages of Jabal al-Turkman.

Homs (8 rebels, 6 civilians). The bodies of 3 unidentified men were found in the al-Assi river, by the towns of al-Dar al-Kabira and Teir Ma'ala.

Hama (5 rebels, 7 civilians).

Aleppo (6 rebels, 4 civilians). A child was killed by the bombardment on the city of Manbaj. 1 man from the town of al-Sfeira was tortured to death after being detained by regime forces.

Reef Dimashq (2 rebels, 10 civilians). 8 civilians including a woman and a child were killed bombardment on the cities and towns of Douma, Erbin, Zabadani and Sayyeda Zeinab. a man from Zabadani was tortured to death after being detained by regime forces.

Deir Ezzour (12 rebels, 1 man). 4 were killed by clashes by the 113th regiment. 8 were killed by rockets falling on the Salhiyya area, on the edges of Deir Ezzour city.

Damascus (8 rebels, 5 civilians). A child was killed by the bombardment on the Jobar neighbourhood. A media activist and 4 rebels were killed by the clashes and bombardment on the Hajar al-Aswad neighbourhood.

Idlib province (5 rebels, 1 man). the body of an unidentified man was found near the town of Jarjanaz.

Raqqah (1 rebel). Killed by clashes in Raqqah city.

----

A defected captain, who became a rebel commander, was killed by clashes in Reef Der'a.

108 members of the regular forces, including 6 officers, and the national defence forces were killed by clashes, bombardment, summary executions, and explosive attacks: 38 in Aleppo, 20 in Homs, 17 in Der'a, 14 in Latakia, 7 in Hama, 8 in Raqqah, 2 in Deir Ezzour, 2 in Damascus and Reef Dimashq.

32 still unidentified rebels were killed by clashes and bombardment in the Hasakah, Aleppo, Der'a, Created On  2013-03-04
Hama, Homs and Latakia provinces.

Make of that what you will, but to me it doesn't indicated the large number of civilians that will get slaughter once a fully fledged ethnic/confessional war gets under-way. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on June 14, 2013, 06:20:26 PM
Interesting tv news report about a 'battalion' of western Jihadist fighters in Syria, concentrating on a British, Swedish and Canadian.
Worth viewing:

http://www.channel4.com/news/syria-war-rebels-jihadi-ibrahim-al-mazwagi (http://www.channel4.com/news/syria-war-rebels-jihadi-ibrahim-al-mazwagi)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on June 14, 2013, 06:59:03 PM
It'd be nice for both sides to lose.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on June 14, 2013, 07:58:17 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on June 14, 2013, 06:59:03 PM
It'd be nice for both sides to lose.

Yeah, totally.  Fuck'em.  We come bringing democracy and cable TV and are greeted with bombs.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Phillip V on June 14, 2013, 08:54:47 PM
Almost scathing article by New York Times' standards.

Heavy Pressure Led to Decision by Obama on Syrian Arms

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/15/us/politics/pressure-led-to-obamas-decision-on-syrian-arms.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/15/us/politics/pressure-led-to-obamas-decision-on-syrian-arms.html)
QuoteFor two years, President Obama has resisted being drawn deeper into the civil war in Syria. It was a miserable problem, he told aides, and not one he thought he could solve. At most, it could be managed. And besides, he wanted to be remembered for getting out of Middle East wars, not embarking on new ones.

So when Mr. Obama agreed this week for the first time to send small arms and ammunition to Syrian rebel forces, he had to be almost dragged into the decision under pressure from advisers, critics and even Bill Clinton. Coming so late into the conflict, Mr. Obama expressed no confidence it would change the outcome, but privately expressed hope it might buy time to bring about a negotiated settlement.

His ambivalence about the decision seemed evident even in the way it was announced. Mr. Obama left it to a deputy national security adviser, Benjamin J. Rhodes, to declare Thursday evening that the president's "red line" on chemical weapons had been crossed and that support to the opposition would be increased. At the time, Mr. Obama was addressing a gay pride event in the East Room. On Friday, as Mr. Rhodes was again dispatched to defend the move at a briefing, the president was hosting a Father's Day luncheon in the State Dining Room.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on June 15, 2013, 04:14:16 AM
Ten years from now, those small arms will be used against US troops
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 15, 2013, 04:19:19 AM
Quote from: Tamas on June 15, 2013, 04:14:16 AM
Ten years from now, those small arms will be used against US troops

won't take 10 years for that to happen.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on June 15, 2013, 07:45:16 AM
Quote from: Tamas on June 15, 2013, 04:14:16 AM
Ten years from now, those small arms will be used against US troops

Small arms are not the problem. Guided munitions are. Giving the rebels 100,000 AK-47s will not be a serious issue. There are already more than enough of those lying about. Giving them 5,000,000 rounds of 7.62 mm short ammo will be of use. Provided all that gets use this shouldn't be an issue.

I worry about giving them anti tank and anti aircraft missiles as well as guidance equipment for mortars. Remember that keeping this stuff in working order takes quite a bit of money and trained manpower.

The most useful stuff that we can give them is communication equipment and real time satellite and drone information.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 15, 2013, 07:53:57 AM
Quote from: Viking on June 15, 2013, 07:45:16 AM
The most useful stuff that we can give them is communication equipment and real time satellite and drone information.

Actually, the most useful thing we can do is park the Nimitz or the Eisenhower off the coast and enforce a no-flight zone, degrade Syrian government armor and interdict Iranian military supplies landing in Syria and coming through Iraq.  That would even things out on the ground.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on June 15, 2013, 08:18:54 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 15, 2013, 07:53:57 AM
Quote from: Viking on June 15, 2013, 07:45:16 AM
The most useful stuff that we can give them is communication equipment and real time satellite and drone information.

Actually, the most useful thing we can do is park the Nimitz or the Eisenhower off the coast and enforce a no-flight zone, degrade Syrian government armor and interdict Iranian military supplies landing in Syria and coming through Iraq.  That would even things out on the ground.

give /= do

I was expecting a drone campaign.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 15, 2013, 08:24:03 AM
Quote from: Viking on June 15, 2013, 08:18:54 AM
give /= do

I'd rather not give them anything.

QuoteI was expecting a drone campaign.

Not enough ordnance involved to be effective.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on June 15, 2013, 11:14:04 AM
But if we give them guns we can control them & they won't radicalize.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on June 15, 2013, 12:07:23 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 15, 2013, 08:24:03 AM
Quote from: Viking on June 15, 2013, 08:18:54 AM
give /= do

I'd rather not give them anything.

QuoteI was expecting a drone campaign.

Not enough ordnance involved to be effective.

A Couple of Cameras with real time footage of syrian army maneuvers should help them win battles and a couple of hellfire missiles dropped on tanks in the open should keep them from moving in open terrain.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on June 15, 2013, 12:11:29 PM
On a more serious note however. How does this conflict affect Iran's ability to retaliate in case of an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure?

If Assad falls HizbAllah is in serious trouble both in political and logistical terms. Lebanese salafists might take the opportunity to attack HizbAllah in this conflict and/of HizbAllah mighte recieve a significant bloody nose in Syria in terms of loss of manpower and quality manpower at that. Additionally With Syria gone HizbAllah has lost it's logistical umbilical to Iran and cannot be sure of replacing weapons lost and re-supply of ammunition expended.

Will this cause Israel to strike during the conflict while Assad and Nasrallah are distracted? Will they strike in case of an opposition victory?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 15, 2013, 12:56:01 PM
Quote from: Viking on June 15, 2013, 12:07:23 PM
A Couple of Cameras with real time footage of syrian army maneuvers should help them win battles and a couple of hellfire missiles dropped on tanks in the open should keep them from moving in open terrain.

That would probably require a bit more US fire support and forward observation cooperation on the ground than what is currently possible with those heart-eating Islamogoofs.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 15, 2013, 02:18:55 PM
Quote from: Viking on June 15, 2013, 08:18:54 AM
give /= do

I was expecting a drone campaign.

I figure before you deploy drones you have to take out all of Assad's shiny new SAMs.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Bluebook on June 15, 2013, 05:21:04 PM
This is not a civil war in Syria anymore. This is the sectarian sunni-shiite war we have dreaded. Right now is focused in Syria, but is already spilling over into Lebanon and Iraq. This will not end anytime soon since neither side can accept a victory for the other side.

Intervention is a really bad idea. Non-intervention is also a bad idea, but probably less bad since an intervention not make anything better or end the sectarian war.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on June 15, 2013, 05:39:51 PM
Quote from: Bluebook on June 15, 2013, 05:21:04 PM
... intervention not make anything better or end the sectarian war.

Neither will non-intervention. At a minimum they should stop the airstrikes on civilians. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on June 15, 2013, 06:49:41 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 15, 2013, 02:18:55 PM
Quote from: Viking on June 15, 2013, 08:18:54 AM
give /= do

I was expecting a drone campaign.

I figure before you deploy drones you have to take out all of Assad's shiny new SAMs.

Does he actually have them or are they in Latakia protecting the Russian Black Sea Fleet?


Besides, I'm pretty sure a S-300 costs more than a Drone.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 15, 2013, 07:07:44 PM
Quote from: Viking on June 15, 2013, 06:49:41 PM
Does he actually have them or are they in Latakia protecting the Russian Black Sea Fleet?

If he doesn't have his new stuff yet he still has plenty of older stuff.

QuoteBesides, I'm pretty sure a S-300 costs more than a Drone.

Good point.  :hmm:

edit: But he also has some MiGs.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: katmai on June 15, 2013, 07:08:26 PM
Learn to quote you git.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 15, 2013, 07:08:56 PM
Quote from: katmai on June 15, 2013, 07:08:26 PM
Learn to quote you git.

Don't give me none of your guff.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: katmai on June 15, 2013, 07:12:18 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 15, 2013, 07:08:56 PM
Quote from: katmai on June 15, 2013, 07:08:26 PM
Learn to quote you git.

Don't give me none of your guff.

I'll gruff, and I'll huff and I'll puff if i wanna!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 15, 2013, 07:13:31 PM
Quote from: katmai on June 15, 2013, 07:12:18 PM
I'll gruff, and I'll huff and I'll puff if i wanna!

I WAS SICK I WAS SICK

:weep:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on June 15, 2013, 07:19:50 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 15, 2013, 07:07:44 PM
Quote from: Viking on June 15, 2013, 06:49:41 PM
Does he actually have them or are they in Latakia protecting the Russian Black Sea Fleet?

If he doesn't have his new stuff yet he still has plenty of older stuff.

QuoteBesides, I'm pretty sure a S-300 costs more than a Drone.

Good point.  :hmm:

edit: But he also has some MiGs.

Sure he has some MiGs. Does he have Radars? The Israelis seem to be able to get in and out the place pretty easily. The Wiki page on the civil war had an uncited number of 100 (out of 600-900) combat aircraft lost.

Then again, I'm pretty sure the fuel and missiles needed to shoot down a drone costs more than a Drone... ok, maybe not more, but at least in the same order of magnitude, plus the pilot(s) have to run the risk of the drone being bait in a SAM-trap.

If "we" do deploy drones I suspect that there will be a no-fly zone involved as well.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Jacob on June 17, 2013, 12:48:51 PM
So Assad has been quoted here: http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/naher-osten/assad-im-f-a-z-gespraech-europa-wird-den-preis-fuer-waffenlieferungen-zahlen-12224852.html

... he's saying that if Europe arms the rebels, they'll pay the price in terrorism.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 17, 2013, 12:49:44 PM
That would be A RED LINE.  :mad:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on June 17, 2013, 01:19:45 PM
Dang, that would suck if Syria starts sponsoring terrorism :(
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on June 17, 2013, 01:28:48 PM
Quote from: Jacob on June 17, 2013, 12:48:51 PM
So Assad has been quoted here: http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/naher-osten/assad-im-f-a-z-gespraech-europa-wird-den-preis-fuer-waffenlieferungen-zahlen-12224852.html

... he's saying that if Europe arms the rebels, they'll pay the price in terrorism.

I'm unsure. When I looked up an English language source, kind of looked like he was saying that arming rebels is giving would-be terrorists training in how to use weapons.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Jacob on June 17, 2013, 01:41:09 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 17, 2013, 12:49:44 PM
That would be A RED LINE.  :mad:

:huh:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 17, 2013, 01:48:46 PM
Quote from: Jacob on June 17, 2013, 12:48:51 PM
So Assad has been quoted here: http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/naher-osten/assad-im-f-a-z-gespraech-europa-wird-den-preis-fuer-waffenlieferungen-zahlen-12224852.html

... he's saying that if Europe arms the rebels, they'll pay the price in terrorism.

yes, because the rebels/terrorists would then not only be veterans, but also better armed than they are now.
And while my skills are understanding German are a bit limited i dont see Assad making the threat that he will be sending out terrorists.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on June 17, 2013, 02:10:16 PM
Quote from: Viking on June 15, 2013, 07:45:16 AM
Quote from: Tamas on June 15, 2013, 04:14:16 AM
Ten years from now, those small arms will be used against US troops

Small arms are not the problem. Guided munitions are. Giving the rebels 100,000 AK-47s will not be a serious issue. There are already more than enough of those lying about. Giving them 5,000,000 rounds of 7.62 mm short ammo will be of use. Provided all that gets use this shouldn't be an issue.

I worry about giving them anti tank and anti aircraft missiles as well as guidance equipment for mortars. Remember that keeping this stuff in working order takes quite a bit of money and trained manpower.

The most useful stuff that we can give them is communication equipment and real time satellite and drone information.
Yeah, there are already problems with radical types having and using Russian SA-7 ground to air missiles in other areas.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Jacob on June 17, 2013, 03:21:04 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 17, 2013, 01:48:46 PM
Quote from: Jacob on June 17, 2013, 12:48:51 PM
So Assad has been quoted here: http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/naher-osten/assad-im-f-a-z-gespraech-europa-wird-den-preis-fuer-waffenlieferungen-zahlen-12224852.html

... he's saying that if Europe arms the rebels, they'll pay the price in terrorism.

yes, because the rebels/terrorists would then not only be veterans, but also better armed than they are now.
And while my skills are understanding German are a bit limited i dont see Assad making the threat that he will be sending out terrorists.

So it's more of a matter of fact friendly warning that if Europe arm anti-government rebels, they should expect to see more terrorism at home.

Gotcha.

He might be right :)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on June 17, 2013, 03:32:25 PM
Quote from: Jacob on June 17, 2013, 03:21:04 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 17, 2013, 01:48:46 PM
Quote from: Jacob on June 17, 2013, 12:48:51 PM
So Assad has been quoted here: http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/naher-osten/assad-im-f-a-z-gespraech-europa-wird-den-preis-fuer-waffenlieferungen-zahlen-12224852.html

... he's saying that if Europe arms the rebels, they'll pay the price in terrorism.

yes, because the rebels/terrorists would then not only be veterans, but also better armed than they are now.
And while my skills are understanding German are a bit limited i dont see Assad making the threat that he will be sending out terrorists.

So it's more of a matter of fact friendly warning that if Europe arm anti-government rebels, they should expect to see more terrorism at home.

Gotcha.

He might be right :)

Well obviously he isn't just saying it to be nice, but rather to deter a course of action. However, when you first posted it, seemed like he was saying that he was going to encourage terrorism against Europe - whereas he is saying that Europe's actions will lead to home-grown terrorism.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on June 17, 2013, 03:34:02 PM
I don't think htere is any might be about it. Though they'll probably be busy trying to exterminate each other for years.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 17, 2013, 03:34:56 PM
Quote from: Jacob on June 17, 2013, 01:41:09 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 17, 2013, 12:49:44 PM
That would be A RED LINE.  :mad:

:huh:

Mocking the Prez is fun for all.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on June 17, 2013, 03:41:04 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 17, 2013, 03:34:56 PM
Quote from: Jacob on June 17, 2013, 01:41:09 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 17, 2013, 12:49:44 PM
That would be A RED LINE.  :mad:

:huh:

Mocking the Prez is fun for all.

Good, clean fun.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 17, 2013, 03:41:50 PM
Quote from: derspiess on June 17, 2013, 03:41:04 PM
Good, clean fun.

Just like Syria will be.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on June 17, 2013, 03:46:19 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 17, 2013, 03:41:50 PM
Quote from: derspiess on June 17, 2013, 03:41:04 PM
Good, clean fun.

Just like Syria will be.

Yeah.  Well, take that up with him.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on June 17, 2013, 04:15:09 PM
Quote from: garbon on June 17, 2013, 01:28:48 PM
Quote from: Jacob on June 17, 2013, 12:48:51 PM
So Assad has been quoted here: http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/naher-osten/assad-im-f-a-z-gespraech-europa-wird-den-preis-fuer-waffenlieferungen-zahlen-12224852.html

... he's saying that if Europe arms the rebels, they'll pay the price in terrorism.

I'm unsure. When I looked up an English language source, kind of looked like he was saying that arming rebels is giving would-be terrorists training in how to use weapons.

Meh, it's not like we've ever supplied arms and training to insurgent fighters, only to have them use the training against us in the form of terrorism before.

:osama:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on June 17, 2013, 07:12:35 PM
Tunisian mothers in Damascus pleading for the release of their 'foreign fighter' sons:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22933132 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22933132)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 17, 2013, 09:08:46 PM
Quote from: derspiess on June 17, 2013, 03:46:19 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 17, 2013, 03:41:50 PM
Quote from: derspiess on June 17, 2013, 03:41:04 PM
Good, clean fun.

Just like Syria will be.

Yeah.  Well, take that up with him.

It's not like he really wants to do this, you know.  You can tell, what with the absence of a coherent policy.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on June 17, 2013, 09:15:13 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 17, 2013, 09:08:46 PM
Quote from: derspiess on June 17, 2013, 03:46:19 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 17, 2013, 03:41:50 PM
Quote from: derspiess on June 17, 2013, 03:41:04 PM
Good, clean fun.

Just like Syria will be.

Yeah.  Well, take that up with him.

It's not like he really wants to do this, you know.  You can tell, what with the absence of a coherent policy.

So has he never wanted to do anything then? :hmm:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 17, 2013, 09:17:22 PM
Quote from: garbon on June 17, 2013, 09:15:13 PM
So has he never wanted to do anything then? :hmm:

LOLZ A JOKE I GIT IT

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on June 17, 2013, 09:17:55 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 17, 2013, 09:17:22 PM
Quote from: garbon on June 17, 2013, 09:15:13 PM
So has he never wanted to do anything then? :hmm:

LOLZ A JOKE I GIT IT



Yes, that's what Obama is. :mellow:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 17, 2013, 09:18:17 PM
 :mellow:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on June 17, 2013, 09:19:16 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 17, 2013, 09:18:17 PM
:mellow:

Umm, sorry but the tooltip clearly labels that smiley after me.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 17, 2013, 09:21:07 PM
Funny, I always thought yours was

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcoilhouse.net%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F05%2FMdL3j.gif&hash=317afd945de1652f3534687773bb026358255a7b)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on June 17, 2013, 09:21:18 PM
That emoticon is perhaps the most useless and loathsome of the bunch.

Edit: Meaning this one....  :mellow:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on June 17, 2013, 09:24:04 PM
Mine is the tin hat.  Even though I'm not into conspiracies.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on June 17, 2013, 09:24:44 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on June 17, 2013, 09:21:18 PM
That emoticon is perhaps the most useless and loathsome of the bunch.

Edit: Meaning this one....  :mellow:

<_<
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on June 17, 2013, 09:25:06 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 17, 2013, 09:21:07 PM
Funny, I always thought yours was

No tooltip. :(
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on June 24, 2013, 11:11:32 PM
Fighting between Lebanese Army and Sunni militants in Sidon:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23041608 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23041608)

CdM should watch it as it has M60a1s in action.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on June 25, 2013, 04:27:39 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on June 17, 2013, 09:21:18 PM
That emoticon is perhaps the most useless and loathsome of the bunch.

Edit: Meaning this one....  :mellow:

:mellow:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on June 25, 2013, 06:26:10 AM
Quote from: mongers on June 24, 2013, 11:11:32 PM
Fighting between Lebanese Army and Sunni militants in Sidon:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23041608 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23041608)

CdM should watch it as it has M60a1s in action.
I haven't seen one of those since my days playing M1 Tank Platoon (with the keyboard overlay).
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on July 12, 2013, 02:20:04 PM
Quote

New front opens in Syria as rebels say al Qaeda attack means war

By Mariam Karouny and Oliver Holmes

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syrian rebels said on Friday the assassination of one of their top commanders by al Qaeda-linked militants was tantamount to a declaration of war, opening a new front for the Western-backed fighters struggling against President Bashar al-Assad's forces.

Rivalries have been growing between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Islamists, whose smaller but more effective forces control most of the rebel-held parts of northern Syria more than two years after pro-democracy protests became an uprising.

"We will not let them get away with it because they want to target us," a senior FSA commander said on condition of anonymity after members of the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant killed Kamal Hamami on Thursday.

"We are going to wipe the floor with them," he said.

Hamami, also known by his nom de guerre, Abu Bassir al-Ladkani, is one of the top 30 figures on the FSA's Supreme Military Command.

His killing highlights how the West's vision of a future, democratic Syria is unraveling.

Assad appeared close to defeat a year ago when rebels killed top officials in a bomb attack and pushed deep into Damascus. Now, with military and financial support from Russia and Iran, he has pushed the rebels back to the outskirts of the capital and put them on the defensive in the south while radical Islamists assert control over the north.

The FSA commander said the al Qaeda-linked militants had warned FSA rebels that there was "no place" for them where Hamami was killed in Latakia province, a northern rural region of Syria bordering Turkey where Islamist groups are powerful.

Other opposition sources said the killing followed a dispute between Hamami's forces and the Islamic State over control of a strategic checkpoint in Latakia and would lead to fighting.

VACUUM OF POWER

The two sides have previously fought together from time to time, but the Western and Arab-backed FSA, desperate for greater firepower, has recently tried to distance itself to allay U.S. fears any arms it might supply could reach al Qaeda.

Louay Mekdad, FSA Supreme Command Political Coordinator, said Abu Ayman al-Baghdadi, the Islamic State's Emir of the coastal region, personally shot dead Hamami and his brother at the roadblock.

He said a fighter who was travelling with them was set free to rely the message that the Islamic State considers the FSA heretics and that the Supreme Command is now an al Qaeda target.

"If these people came to defend the Syrian revolution and not help the Assad regime, then they have to hand over the killers," Mekdad said, adding that the bodies of the two men were still with the al Qaeda affiliate.

The FSA has been trying to build a logistics network and reinforce its presence across Syria as the U.S. administration considers sending weapons, in part to present a bulwark against units it considers "terrorist organizations."

But with funding from Gulf-based individuals, Islamist brigades have taken a leading role in rebel-held regions of Syria, filling the vacuum of power by setting up religious courts and governance bodies.

The FSA -- a mixture of loosely-affiliated brigades -- is accused by locals of looting and has not been able to present a unified front to sideline hardline units who favor an Islamic caliphate over pluralist democracy.

Some frustrated FSA fighters say they have joined Islamist groups and moderate and hardline fighters sometimes buy and sell weapons from each other.

The anti-Assad Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which monitors the conflict, said the FSA and the Islamic State have had violent exchanges in several areas of Syria over the past few weeks, showing growing antagonism between Assad's foes.

"Last Friday, the Islamic State killed an FSA rebel in Idlib province and cut his head off. There have been attacks in many provinces," the Observatory's leader Rami Abdelrahman said.

Syria's conflict turned violent in the face of a crackdown on protests. Civil war ensued with disparate rebel groups taking up arms and the Observatory says more than 100,000 people have been killed.

U.S. congressional committees are holding up plans to arm the rebels because of fears that such deliveries will not be decisive and the arms might end up in the hands of Islamist militants.

Syria's opposition bemoans the delay, and repeated on Thursday assurances that the arms will not go to Islamist militants.

[tim mode] Not looking good. [/tim]




Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on July 13, 2013, 03:28:44 AM
I wish I had a VACUUM OF POWER. Mine doesn't suck like it used to.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on July 13, 2013, 04:16:35 AM
Quote from: citizen k on July 12, 2013, 02:20:04 PM

[tim mode] Not looking good. [/tim]

Actually looking good. I'm all for giving the islamists as much spent ammunition as the FSA is willing to shoot at them. Think of this as the FSA's anti islamist bona fides.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on July 13, 2013, 05:59:35 AM
Quote from: Viking on July 13, 2013, 04:16:35 AM
Quote from: citizen k on July 12, 2013, 02:20:04 PM

[tim mode] Not looking good. [/tim]

Actually looking good. I'm all for giving the islamists as much spent ammunition as the FSA is willing to shoot at them. Think of this as the FSA's anti islamist bona fides.

Even when they lose to the islamists?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on July 13, 2013, 10:46:07 AM
Quote from: mongers on July 13, 2013, 05:59:35 AM
Quote from: Viking on July 13, 2013, 04:16:35 AM
Quote from: citizen k on July 12, 2013, 02:20:04 PM

[tim mode] Not looking good. [/tim]

Actually looking good. I'm all for giving the islamists as much spent ammunition as the FSA is willing to shoot at them. Think of this as the FSA's anti islamist bona fides.

Even when they lose to the islamists?

When the choice is A) Lose to the Islamists or B) Help the Islamists win then I don't really see much choice being involved and go with what is right rather than what works (given that obviously nothing is working).
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on July 15, 2013, 08:14:12 PM
And just when you think it can't get much worse...

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/07/15/19486654-pakistani-taliban-we-sent-hundreds-of-fighters-to-syria?lite

QuotePakistani Taliban: 'We sent hundreds of fighters' to Syria

REUTERS/Yazan Homsy

A general view shows damaged buildings on a deserted street in the besieged area of Homs on July 13, 2013.
By Mushtaq Yusufzai, Producer, NBC News

PESHAWAR, Pakistan -- Leaders of the Pakistani Taliban claim to have sent "hundreds of fighters" to Syria to support local mujahideen forces in their struggle against President Bashar Assad.

Senior commanders in the militant Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, a group considered close to al-Qaeda, said they were sending fighters on the request of their "Arab friends."

"When our Muslim brothers sought our help, we sent hundreds of fighters to fight alongside their Arab friends," a senior Tehrik-e-Taliban commander said Sunday, on the condition of anonymity.

"We will soon issue videos of our fighters winning goods and properties of the enemy in Syria," he added.

Another commander for the group, that is known to host foreign militants in the lawless tribal regions of Pakistan and Afghanistan, said that they were bound to help because Syrian fighters had supported them in Pakistan.

"We have established our own camps in Syria, but some of our people go and then return after spending some time fighting there," he added. 

The militant group is led by Hakimullah Mahsud – who the FBI offered a $5 million reward for on their Most Wanted Terrorist list.
Slideshow: Syria uprising

A look back at the conflict that has overtaken the country.

Launch slideshow

However, senior Pakistani government and military authorities challenged the group's claims.

"How can they claim to be sending fighters to Syria when they failed to resist Pakistani security forces and surrendered their strongholds in the tribal areas," a senior military official in Peshawar said.

He added that they wanted to get international attention.

Their claims come as an increasing number of foreign fighters enter the two-year-old conflict that has killed more than 90,000 people, according to the United Nations.

Guerrillas from the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah have recently helped forces loyal to Assad recapture important regions in central Syria.

Troops backed by tanks and artillery also moved into a rebel-held district of Damascus on Monday, stepping up efforts to drive opposition fighters from the capital and build on battlefield gains elsewhere in the country, a rebel commander told NBC News.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on July 16, 2013, 08:02:10 PM
Quote from: Viking on July 13, 2013, 10:46:07 AM
When the choice is A) Lose to the Islamists or B) Help the Islamists win then I don't really see much choice being involved and go with what is right rather than what works (given that obviously nothing is working).
Surely you need to define what someone's trying to achieve to measure whether it's working. With the exception of Cameron's desperate desire to don a keffiyah and ride on Damascus I'm not sure you can say nothing's working.

Interesting side detail, apparently the Australians are really worried at the number of Australian Muslims going to fight in Syria. It's estimated at a few hundred now (from around 500 000) which is tiny but disproportionate compared to estimates of around 100 French or British Muslims fighting over there, from far larger populations.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Agelastus on July 16, 2013, 08:37:23 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on July 16, 2013, 08:02:10 PM
Interesting side detail, apparently the Australians are really worried at the number of Australian Muslims going to fight in Syria. It's estimated at a few hundred now (from around 500 000) which is tiny but disproportionate compared to estimates of around 100 French or British Muslims fighting over there, from far larger populations.

Wikipedia claims the "largest and highest profile" group of Muslims in Australia are Lebanese.

Given the history of Syria under the Assads concerning Lebanon over the last few decades that's likely to produce an abnormally large proportion of Australia's muslims who have enough of a grudge or history or family connections to actively go and fight.

Possibly for both sides, in fact; do the Australians know which side the majority of their errant citizens are fighting on?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on July 16, 2013, 09:46:15 PM
Quote from: Agelastus on July 16, 2013, 08:37:23 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on July 16, 2013, 08:02:10 PM
Interesting side detail, apparently the Australians are really worried at the number of Australian Muslims going to fight in Syria. It's estimated at a few hundred now (from around 500 000) which is tiny but disproportionate compared to estimates of around 100 French or British Muslims fighting over there, from far larger populations.

Wikipedia claims the "largest and highest profile" group of Muslims in Australia are Lebanese.

Given the history of Syria under the Assads concerning Lebanon over the last few decades that's likely to produce an abnormally large proportion of Australia's muslims who have enough of a grudge or history or family connections to actively go and fight.

Possibly for both sides, in fact; do the Australians know which side the majority of their errant citizens are fighting on?

First of all, most of the lebanese are christian arabs. Second most of the muslims are sunnis. There are shiites but they live in specific neighborhoods. So ASIO knows who they are fighting for if they know their address.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Agelastus on July 17, 2013, 10:59:57 AM
Quote from: Viking on July 16, 2013, 09:46:15 PMFirst of all, most of the lebanese are christian arabs.

As Wikipedia says in the very next line - although the proportion is apparently 6:4 in favour of Christian Lebanese. That fails to fit most laymen's definitions of "most".

Still, thanks for confirming the accuracy of that part of Wikipedia's article... :P

Quote from: Viking on July 16, 2013, 09:46:15 PMSecond most of the muslims are sunnis. There are shiites but they live in specific neighborhoods. So ASIO knows who they are fighting for if they know their address.

Good to hear.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on July 24, 2013, 05:23:47 PM

Quote
The West should prepare for Assad's victory in Syria

By Con Coughlin World Last updated: July 24th, 2013

This morning's report that hundreds of former Syrian rebels are laying down their arms and taking up the government's offer of an amnesty is further evidence of what I have been saying (and writing) for months: President Bashar al-Assad is winning Syria's brutal civil war.

Ever since Assad's forces turned the tide of the conflict by retaking the strategically important town of Qusayr on the Lebanese border earlier in the summer, there has been an almost immutable momentum building in favour of the regime gaining the upper hand in the conflict.

A combination of the deep divisions with the rebel ranks, with the Syrian Free Forces declaring war on their al-Qaeda allies (a civil war within a civil war), together with the tangible support Assad has received from his Iranian and Russian allies, means that the rebel cause is now all but lost. No wonder some of the rebels have decided they are fighting for a lost cause, and have decided it is no longer worth risking their lives.

Moreover, as General Sir David Richards, the former head of Britain's Armed Forces, explained in my valedictory interview with him for the Telegraph last week,  calls by the likes of David Cameron and William Hague to arm the rebels now seem likely to fall on deaf ears.

Apart from the fact that establishing a no-fly would be tantamount to a declaration of war on Damascus, the possibility that sophisticated Western weaponry might fall into the hands of Islamist militants has been sufficient to dissuade most Western governments for pursuing that particular course.

The result is that the rebels are now accusing the West of betrayal, and the Assad regime, as Mr Cameron warned at the weekend, grows stronger by the day. It is now simply a question of time before Assad declares victory, and the rebels are left to lick their wounds.

Consequently I believe the time has now come for Western leaders to get their collective heads around the idea that Assad is going to emerge victorious from his brutal assault on his own people, with all the implications that will have for the future.

........

Rest of article here:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/concoughlin/100227893/the-west-should-prepare-for-assads-victory-in-syria/ (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/concoughlin/100227893/the-west-should-prepare-for-assads-victory-in-syria/)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on July 24, 2013, 05:45:01 PM
 :)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on July 24, 2013, 06:43:37 PM
Allahu Akbar!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on October 31, 2013, 06:08:15 PM
Syria footage sheds light on Iran's involvement

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24748143 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24748143)


Quote
Footage from Syria appears to show the extent of Iran's involvement in the conflict-ridden country.

The regime in Tehran says it is assisting Damascus by sending advisers from its elite Revolutionary Guards.

But when some rebels captured a video camera, belonging to an Iranian cameraman who had been embedded with the Revolutionary Guards, the scope of Iran's covert activities in Syria became clear.

Yalda Hakim reports.




Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 31, 2013, 06:32:02 PM
Neat.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: PDH on October 31, 2013, 06:39:58 PM
Syria was a lot neater when it was invaded in 1941. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on October 31, 2013, 07:01:15 PM
Quote from: PDH on October 31, 2013, 06:39:58 PM
Syria was a lot neater when it was invaded in 1941.

Moshe Dayan's lost left eye begs to disagree with you.


As for the the IRG, at least they managed to die without all those fucking "allahu ackbars".... but then again, the reporter does point out that it was a trap.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 31, 2013, 09:12:36 PM
Quote from: Viking on October 31, 2013, 07:01:15 PM
Moshe Dayan's lost left eye begs to disagree with you.

Mose Dayan's Left Eye.  What a great name for a band,
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on October 31, 2013, 09:18:31 PM
Moshe Dayan presents Shitgoat
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 31, 2013, 09:29:24 PM
Listen as Moshe sing his greatest hits, such as " Your Love is Like the Egyptians in My Tank Tracks", and "Since You've Been Gone, I Can't See How Far Away You Are Now?"  Order now!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on October 31, 2013, 09:33:25 PM
From K-Tel!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Savonarola on November 18, 2013, 03:10:11 PM
Now here's a little something about a Jihadist like Deso
Never should have been let out of Guantanamo...


QuoteRapping for al Qaeda in Syria

(CNN) -- In August, al Qaeda's propaganda arm released a video starring the German rapper Deso Dogg.

Wearing combat fatigues and standing next to a waterfall in Syria, Deso Dogg raps in German calling on others to join the jihad and "to make an effort for Paradise."

Deso Dogg, whose real name is Denis Cuspert, is one of several dozen German citizens who have fought in Syria.

Their move to Syria marks an important shift in the focus of global jihadists. Videos by German militants training with groups associated with al Qaeda during 2009 and 2010 were invariably taped in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region.

That region now is largely shunned by foreign militants partly because of effective CIA drones strikes and partly because Syria is now the destination choice for jihadists from around the world.

Deso Dogg is one of the many thousands of foreign fighters who have been drawn to the jihad in Syria against the regime of Bashar al-Assad over the past three years.

This group includes an estimated 800 to 900 from Europe, mostly from Germany, the United Kingdom, France, the Netherlands and Belgium. A handful of Americans have also fought in Syria.

The concern, of course, is that these militants will swap business cards and will acquire arms training and bomb-making skills and will return to Western countries and carry out acts of terrorism.

This is what happened after the war in Afghanistan during the 1980s. Arab veterans of those wars formed the heart of al Qaeda and affiliated groups. Osama bin Laden fought in the Afghan War against the Soviets and then founded al Qaeda, which subsequently, of course, launched the 9/11 attacks. The failure to pay adequate attention to the so-called "Afghan Arabs" such as bin Laden proved an expensive one for the United Sates and her allies.

Could Syria be a new Afghanistan? Maybe.

Last month, for instance, British authorities arrested militants who were allegedly planning a terrorist attack. Two British officials who work on counterterrorism issues told us that that the militants had traveled to Syria.

The 37-year-old Deso Dogg was born in Berlin. His mother is German and his father from the West African nation of Ghana. As a teenager, he became politicized during the first Gulf War, joining anti-American demonstrations in Berlin. "We marched, shouted and burned the American flag," Cuspert recalled.

Cuspert joined Berlin street gangs and became a popular artist in the German gangsta-rap scene, known by his nom de rap "Deso Dogg" and touring with other rappers such as DMX.

After surviving a car accident, he started questioning his lifestyle and turned to Islam for answers. In 2010, he ended his career as a rapper. Deso Dogg changed his name again to "Abu Talha al-Almani" and his rap songs became nasheeds, Islamic devotional songs.

Cuspert's nasheeds were posted on jihadist websites and became popular among al Qaeda supporters.

The ex-rapper went on to become one of the key figures in the militant Millatu-Ibrahim group in Germany.

The group was banned by the German government last year and several of its members, including Cuspert, moved to Egypt to avoid possible arrest by German authorities.

Cuspert's whereabouts remained unclear for many months until the video was released in August showing him to be in Syria and rapping about the duty to "go into battle."

Some 6,000 to 10,000 foreign fighters from more than 80 countries are believed to have traveled to Syria since the beginning of the conflict to join the rebels who aim to topple al-Assad's regime.
Close to 800 of those foreigners are from Saudi Arabia. Tunisia and Libya are the next highest contributors, according to residents and analysts, but Chechnya, Kuwait, Jordan, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates have also seen citizens join the rebel forces in Syria.

Not all of these fighters have joined al-Qaeda linked groups in Syria, but it is likely that many of them have done so because they are generally Sunni militants who are drawn to the conflict for religious reasons.

Canadian news reports estimate the number of Canadian citizens fighting in Syria range from a few dozen to as many as 100. An American filmmaker, Bilal Abdul Kareen, who lived with an Islamist group in Syria for a year said he met with 20 to 30 Canadians.

Experts say the number of Americans fighting in Syria is likely less than 10. Eric Harroun, a former U.S. solider, was charged this year with conspiring to use a rocket-propelled grenade in Syria, and he admitted to fighting with the al Qaeda affiliate group, al-Nusra.

Nicole Mansfield of Flint, Michigan, was killed in May by Syrian government forces who claimed she was fighting with an al Qaeda linked insurgent group.

How to prevent the foreign fighters in Syria fomenting acts of terrorism around the world?
The United States and its allies should make a careful effort to find out the identities of the foreign fighters who have joined the jihadist groups fighting in Syria. And the U.S. should make clear to countries such as Saudi Arabia, which is supplying hundreds of Saudi fighters in Syria, that encouraging this kind of militancy could create a "blowback" problem in the Middle East in the form of terrorism directed at Arab regimes.

As for the former Deso Dogg, in September a jihadi forum released a statement saying that the German ex-rapper had been wounded by an air strike in Syria.

And it's rat-a-tat-tat-tat like that
You know I never hesitate to put a Hebrew on his back
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 18, 2013, 03:16:13 PM
Quote from: Savonarola on November 18, 2013, 03:10:11 PM
And it's rat-a-tat-tat-tat like that
You know I never hesitate to put a Hebrew on his back

:lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Queequeg on November 18, 2013, 03:40:10 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on July 16, 2013, 08:02:10 PMdon a keffiyah and ride on Damascus
NO PRISONERS!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 03, 2013, 09:03:33 PM
Stunning news from the UN! :o

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-25189834

QuoteUN implicates Bashar al-Assad in Syria war crimes

The UN's human rights chief has said an inquiry has produced evidence that war crimes were authorised in Syria at the "highest level", including by President Bashar al-Assad.

It is the first time the UN's human rights office has so directly implicated Mr Assad.

Commissioner Navi Pillay said her office held a list of others implicated by the inquiry.

The UN estimates more than 100,000 people have died in the conflict.

The UN's commission of inquiry into Syria has produced "massive evidence... [of] very serious crimes, war crimes, crimes against humanity," Ms Pillay said.

"The scale of viciousness of the abuses being perpetrated by elements on both sides almost defies belief," she said.

The evidence indicated responsibility "at the highest level of government, including the head of state", she added.


The inquiry has also previously reported it has evidence that rebel forces in Syria have been guilty of human rights abuses.

However, the investigators have always said the Syrian government appears to be responsible for the majority, and that the systematic nature of the abuse points to government policy.

Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad was dismissive of Ms Pillay's remarks.

"She has been talking nonsense for a long time and we don't listen to her," he told AP.

Mr Mekdad was in The Hague at a meeting of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) to discuss the effort to destroy Syria's chemical weapons.

He told the BBC that Syria needed more money and equipment from the international community.

He said Syria needed lorries and armoured vehicles to transport chemicals to prevent "terrorists" attacking the vehicles on their way to the port of Latakia, where they will be loaded onto a US naval vessel for destruction.

An OPCW spokesman at the conference told the BBC that any donations of dual-use equipment would be carefully monitored and there would have to be strict guidelines imposed to make sure the machinery could only be used for the purpose of removing the weapons.

Death toll 'over 125,000'

Ms Pillay said the UN commission of inquiry had compiled a list of those believed to be directly responsible for serious human rights violations.

It is assumed that senior figures in the Syrian military and government are on that list, the BBC's Imogen Foulkes reports from Geneva.

However, the names and specific evidence relating to them remain confidential pending a possible prosecution for war crimes and crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court (ICC).

She has previously called on the UN Security Council to refer Syria to the ICC.

Syria is not a state party to the ICC and therefore any investigation into the conflict would need to be mandated by the Security Council.

However, Russia and China have a veto on the council and would be highly unlikely to let such a move pass.

Human rights groups say that the regime's use of air power often amounts to war crimes

Ms Pillay's statement is a reminder of the severity of the situation in Syria as preparations are made for the Geneva II peace conference next month, our correspondent says.

Both the government and the opposition National Coalition have said they will attend the conference, but the head of the Western-backed rebel Free Syrian Army has said it will continue fighting during the talks.

The National Coalition says it categorically rejects any role for President Assad in any transitional government, while the regime has said it is not going to negotiate a "handover of power".

Also on Monday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a UK-based activist group which monitors deaths in the conflict, said its estimate of the number of dead had now reached 125,835, more than a third of them civilians.

Almost 28,000 rebel fighters had died, and more than 50,000 on the side of the government, including both regular soldiers and pro-regime militias. The latter figure also includes almost 500 dead from the Lebanese Hezbollah movement and other foreign Shia militias.

However, it said it believed these figures were an underestimate as both sides were reticent about reporting deaths in their ranks.

The SOHR also reported on Monday that Islamist rebels had seized control of the town of Maaloula, which houses a historic Christian community.

Earlier the state-run Sana news agency had claimed that fighters from Islamist brigades had stormed Maaloula's St Tekla monastery and had detained some of the nuns that live there.

However, information is difficulty to verify as access for foreign journalists is restricted.

After fighting in the town in September, a nun at the monastery told the BBC she did not think the towns Christians had been deliberately targeted by rebels.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on March 12, 2014, 08:53:14 AM
Is it still too late to bomb Assad into pulp? <_<


http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/12/iraq-battle-dead-valley-peace-syria

Quote
Controlled by Iran, the deadly militia recruiting Iraq's men to die in Syria
The Middle East's most potent new political force, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, is stepping up its support for the Bashar al-Assad regime


    Martin Chulov in Najaf
    theguardian.com, Wednesday 12 March 2014 13.15 GMT   

Each day for the past nine months, the bodies have been coming. Some are carried in simple wooden coffins strapped to car roofs. Others arrive with more ceremony, escorted by black-clad mourners or men in military fatigues to a hypnotic soundtrack of Islamic hymns.

The convoys turn into the cavernous lanes of the Valley of Peace cemetery, squeezing past tombstones weathered by millennia and stopping next to freshly dug holes in the desert soil.

The newest inhabitants of the world's biggest cemetery were killed not here in Iraq but in Syria, where they fought under the green flag of the Middle East's most potent new Shia Islamic political force, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq (League of the Righteous).

The militia has been busy readying for the afterlife, buying up more than 2,500 square metres of burial plots and erecting shrines for its fallen. And in Baghdad, nearly 100 miles north, the group has been more occupied with the here and now, imposing its influence on Iraq's fractured political scene and steadily asserting its will throughout the city's Shia heartland suburbs.

Since the American military left Iraq in December 2011, and within two months of the first national election since then, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq has quietly emerged as one of the most powerful players in the country's political and public life. Through a mix of strategic diplomacy, aggressive military operations and intimidation – signature methods of its main patron, the Iranian general Qassem Suleimani – the group is now increasingly calling the shots in two countries.

Its rise to prominence has disturbed many Iraqi political leaders. "Little more than seven years ago, they were just another Iranian proxy used to attack the Americans," said one minister. "Now they have political legitimacy and their tentacles in all the security apparatus. Some of us didn't notice until it was too late."

Until early 2007, few outsiders had heard of Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, which had emerged over several years from a split within the Mahdi Army, the then-dominant arm of the Shia insurgency in Iraq. Its earliest incarnation – stealth tactics and the denial of responsibilty for attacks – was straight from the playbook of Suleimani, an elusive Iranian general whose influence over Iran's strategic interests has grown sharply in the past 10 years.

The group has a close connection to Lebanon's Hezbollah and ideological links to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Its debut as a strike weapon of Suleimani, who reports directly to Khamenei and commands the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, came with an attack in January 2007 on a US military outpost in Karbala, another Shia shrine city, south of Najaf, that killed five US soldiers.

Several months later, the group's leader, Qais al-Khazali, his brother Laith al-Khazali and a senior Hezbollah member, Ali Moussa al-Daqduq, were captured by the SAS near Basra. Then came a series of events that gave rise to the group's claim to legitimacy.

In May 2007, a British IT consultant, Peter Moore, and four of his bodyguards were seized by Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq and Iraqi security force members from a government building in east Baghdad. Moore was released in late 2009 after the Khazali brothers were freed from US prisons in Iraq.

However, the Briton's guards were all killed, their bodies returned one by one as part of a choreographed exchange with Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq prisoners who were released from US and Iraqi prisons. Daqduq, one of the last to be freed, was returned to Lebanon in 2012.

Now, as Iraq approaches parliamentary elections on 30 April, the group is stepping up both its political activism in Baghdad and its support for the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. In speeches and interviews over the past two years, Qais al-Khazali has claimed a role for the group based on its military "defeat" of the US.

His message has galvanised thousands of Iraqi Shias who have volunteered to fight for the Assad regime in Syria. And it has worried many communities across the Shia heartland, who see their countrymen's involvement in Syria's battles as a costly investment in a sectarian conflict that increasingly respects no border.

In the Najaf cemetery, gravediggers say they can barely distinguish between the end of one war and the beginning of the next. "No sooner had the Americans gone than Syria exploded," said one worker, standing against a newly built shrine.

"There have been more of their bodies coming back from Syria than ever before," he said. "There are easily around 500 of them buried here. We have been getting around three each day for the past month alone. They get driven to us from across the border in Iran. When they are killed in Syria, they are flown there."

The regular rhythms of life and death keep business ticking over in this graveyard of more than 5 million souls. But even by Najaf's standards, business has been brisk lately.

A warm wind swirls soil from open graves nearby, and a newly etched tombstone spells out the short life of the Shia jihadist killed somewhere in Syria last November. His grave, and the 30-odd alongside it, all say the occupant died "defending the Holy Shrine Sayyidah Zaynab".

The mosque, on the south-west outskirts of Damascus, is said to be the resting place of the daughter of the Imam Ali, the prophet Muhammad's cousin, and is revered by the Shia faithful. Its defence has served as a clarion call for Shia fighters from around the Middle East who believe it to be under attack from Sunni extremists.

Hezbollah also claims its widespread intervention in Syria on the side of Assad is in defence of the shrine. So too does Kata'ib Hezbollah, another Iranian-backed Iraqi proxy, whose members are often buried alongside Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq fighters. Both Iraqi groups fight across Syria under the banner of Abu al-Fadl al-Abbas, which has been at the vanguard of attacks against the almost exclusively Sunni opposition across Syria.

They, along with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, are helping turn the tide in favour of the Assad regime, which in late 2012 was losing control of Damascus to rebel groups who were finding serious cracks in the regime's inner cordon. "Then came a strategic decision by all the Shia groups to defend Assad whatever the cost," said a regional ambassador who at the time was based in the Syrian capital. "You could see the turnaround in Assad almost immediately. Even in his speeches, it was like 'we can do this.'"

Estimates of the numbers of Shia fighters in Syria range between 8,000 and 15,000. Whatever the true figure, the involvement of large numbers of Iraqis is not the secret it was in the early months of Syria's civil war, which is now being fought along a sectarian faultline.

Outside Baghdad University, a large poster of Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq's dead, superimposed on a photo of the Sayyidah Zaynab shrine, greets students. Similar posters stand outside other universities, and on prominent public squares. Security forces pay them no heed.

"The government has given them cover for their political and security life," said a senior Iraqi official with links to the intelligence community. [The Iraqi prime minister Nouri] al-Maliki is wary of them, but what can he do? His nature is that if he cannot deal with the issue he will turn his head away. He tried to set up a cell to monitor them in late 2010, but they found out and he was embarrassed. He paid them money and said sorry. They don't respect him now."

Iraqi intelligence officials believe Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq is receiving $1.5m-$2m a month from Iran. "They see themselves as the 'Soldiers of the Marjaeen' [the ultimate Shia religious authority]," the official said. "Their power is unchecked."

The gravediggers who sit in concrete huts, waiting for business, along the main road through the cemetery, fear nothing in death, but admit to being scared of the threat posed by anyone who earns the ire of Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq.

"They are everywhere," said one. They're in the [official records] building. Don't go asking questions there. You will be arrested."

In Baghdad, homes and offices have been bought or, in some cases, commandeered by officials from the party who use them as recruiting centres for anyone looking to fight in Syria. Most locals seem to give them a wide berth.

"You need to be young and you need to have two written references," said a local man who had sat in on an interview between a would-be volunteer and Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq officials. "Those guarantees are important. It is also better if you don't have children, or a wife.

"If you are accepted, you will be taken to Iran for around two weeks for training and then you will be sent to Syria. It's the same way home if you die there.

"And if someone dies, they will be looked after by Iran. The families of martyrs are paid up to $5,000 each. And if they are too poor to pay for the burial, that will be taken care of too."

The Najaf gravediggers have learned to stay ahead of the market, digging holes in advance for the bodies that will soon follow. Tombstones lie piled nearby for up to 30 Keta'ib Hezbollah graves waiting for engravers.

On a corner nearby, a woman in a burqa was cleaning dust from large plastic bottles of pink rosewater that family members use to wipe tombs, new and old. A faint floral smell wafts on a dusk wind past the new arrivals. "We'll be back here tomorrow," said the gravedigger. "We will bury whatever they send us."
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on March 12, 2014, 09:02:04 AM
Assad is a reformer :angry:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Queequeg on March 12, 2014, 10:38:46 AM
Huh. Never thought of it before but if all the worst radicals are fighting and killing eachother there then they won't be doing it in Tikrit and Kerbala. Always thought of it as a spreading infection rather than just a killing ground for the Middle East's worst.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on March 12, 2014, 08:11:53 PM
Quote from: Queequeg on March 12, 2014, 10:38:46 AM
Huh. Never thought of it before but if all the worst radicals are fighting and killing eachother there then they won't be doing it in Tikrit and Kerbala. Always thought of it as a spreading infection rather than just a killing ground for the Middle East's worst.
Violence has been escalating in Iraq as of late. Just because a lot of islamists are going to fight in Syria, doesn't mean that nothing is going down in Iraq.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 12, 2014, 08:33:08 PM
Obama lost Syria.   :mad:  Just like he lost Crimea.   :mad:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on March 12, 2014, 08:36:26 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 12, 2014, 08:33:08 PM
Obama lost Syria.   :mad:  Just like he lost Crimea.   :mad:

And now he's lost East Harlem.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on March 12, 2014, 08:41:54 PM
THANKS OBAMA
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on March 12, 2014, 10:53:47 PM
Quote from: citizen k on March 12, 2014, 08:36:26 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 12, 2014, 08:33:08 PM
Obama lost Syria.   :mad:  Just like he lost Crimea.   :mad:

And now he's lost East Harlem.



Even I know East Harlem has more than one building.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: dps on March 12, 2014, 11:05:58 PM
Quote from: garbon on March 12, 2014, 10:53:47 PM
Quote from: citizen k on March 12, 2014, 08:36:26 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 12, 2014, 08:33:08 PM
Obama lost Syria.   :mad:  Just like he lost Crimea.   :mad:

And now he's lost East Harlem.



Even I know East Harlem has more than one building.

Yeah, but will they still by the time President Obama leaves office? 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on March 22, 2014, 05:03:49 PM
Possibility of a Turkish military intervention in N.Syria within the next couple of weeks, odds?

Maybe over the issue of a Turkish cultural 'relic'?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on March 22, 2014, 09:02:50 PM
Quote from: mongers on March 22, 2014, 05:03:49 PM
Possibility of a Turkish military intervention in N.Syria within the next couple of weeks, odds?

Maybe over the issue of a Turkish cultural 'relic'?
There has been fighting over a border crossing recently, but if they didn't intervene over that plane that was shot down or the mortars crossing the border it seems unlikely.

Rebels Clash Near Border (http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/syrian-army-93-rebels-killed-fleeing-castle-23012716)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on March 23, 2014, 10:16:22 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on March 22, 2014, 09:02:50 PM
Quote from: mongers on March 22, 2014, 05:03:49 PM
Possibility of a Turkish military intervention in N.Syria within the next couple of weeks, odds?

Maybe over the issue of a Turkish cultural 'relic'?
There has been fighting over a border crossing recently, but if they didn't intervene over that plane that was shot down or the mortars crossing the border it seems unlikely.

Rebels Clash Near Border (http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/syrian-army-93-rebels-killed-fleeing-castle-23012716)

:hmm:

A start ? :unsure:

Quote
Turkey downs Syria military jet 'in airspace violation'

Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan says its armed forces have shot down a Syrian military jet which had violated its airspace.

He warned such action by Syria merited a "heavy response".

But Syria accused Turkey of "blatant aggression", saying the plane had been over Syrian territory at the time.

The incident reportedly occurred in an area where Syrian rebels and government forces have been fighting for control of a border crossing.

Turkey and Syria - once allies - have more than 500 miles (800km) of common border.

The BBC's James Reynolds in Istanbul says Turkey and Syria have been on opposing sides in Syria's war since October 2011, and there have been a number of engagements and firefights.

However neither side is interested in a direct, sustained, open war or conflict between the two countries, our correspondent says.
'Caught fire and crashed'

Speaking at a rally of supporters, Mr Erdogan congratulated his air force on its actions on Sunday.

"A Syrian plane violated our airspace. Our F-16s took off and hit this plane. Why? because if you violate my airspace, our slap after this will be hard," he said.
......


rest of item here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-26706417 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-26706417)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on March 23, 2014, 10:37:31 AM
Quote from: mongers on March 23, 2014, 10:16:22 AM
Quote
Turkey downs Syria military jet 'in airspace violation'

Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan says its armed forces have shot down a Syrian military jet which had violated its airspace.

He warned such action by Syria merited a "heavy response".

But Syria accused Turkey of "blatant aggression", saying the plane had been over Syrian territory at the time.

The incident reportedly occurred in an area where Syrian rebels and government forces have been fighting for control of a border crossing.

Turkey and Syria - once allies - have more than 500 miles (800km) of common border.

The BBC's James Reynolds in Istanbul says Turkey and Syria have been on opposing sides in Syria's war since October 2011, and there have been a number of engagements and firefights.

However neither side is interested in a direct, sustained, open war or conflict between the two countries, our correspondent says.
'Caught fire and crashed'

Speaking at a rally of supporters, Mr Erdogan congratulated his air force on its actions on Sunday.

"A Syrian plane violated our airspace. Our F-16s took off and hit this plane. Why? because if you violate my airspace, our slap after this will be hard," he said.
......



I bolded the bit that worried me. It says more about Erdogan's state of mind rather than the state of turkish ROE, but still, "My airspace"?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on March 23, 2014, 10:44:43 AM
Quote from: Viking on March 23, 2014, 10:37:31 AM

I bolded the bit that worried me. It says more about Erdogan's state of mind rather than the state of turkish ROE, but still, "My airspace"?

My thinking is an autocratic ruler facing trouble at home, corruption allegations and so forth, seeks a foreign policy crisis to quell or divert domestic opposition.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on March 23, 2014, 10:53:19 AM
Quote from: mongers on March 23, 2014, 10:44:43 AM
Quote from: Viking on March 23, 2014, 10:37:31 AM

I bolded the bit that worried me. It says more about Erdogan's state of mind rather than the state of turkish ROE, but still, "My airspace"?

My thinking is an autocratic ruler facing trouble at home, corruption allegations and so forth, seeks a foreign policy crisis to quell or divert domestic opposition.

Well, duh, it's just that he's not supposed to be an autocratic ruler. Just a year ago people were still putting him forward as a role model for arab democracy in the arab spring.

I'm just wondering what act of his will be the one history looks back on to be the one that finally confirmed his autocratic shark jumping completed.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on March 23, 2014, 11:06:15 AM
Quote from: Viking on March 23, 2014, 10:53:19 AM
Quote from: mongers on March 23, 2014, 10:44:43 AM
Quote from: Viking on March 23, 2014, 10:37:31 AM

I bolded the bit that worried me. It says more about Erdogan's state of mind rather than the state of turkish ROE, but still, "My airspace"?

My thinking is an autocratic ruler facing trouble at home, corruption allegations and so forth, seeks a foreign policy crisis to quell or divert domestic opposition.

Well, duh, it's just that he's not supposed to be an autocratic ruler. Just a year ago people were still putting him forward as a role model for arab democracy in the arab spring.

I'm just wondering what act of his will be the one history looks back on to be the one that finally confirmed his autocratic shark jumping completed.

I think plenty of people have had doubts about him for a fair few years now.

I've already staked my claim to what that might be.  :ph34r:   :D
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on March 28, 2014, 04:36:55 PM
Quote from: mongers on March 22, 2014, 05:03:49 PM
Possibility of a Turkish military intervention in N.Syria within the next couple of weeks, odds?

Maybe over the issue of a Turkish cultural 'relic'?

:hmm:

Quote
Turkey moves to block YouTube access after 'audio leak'

Turkey has moved to block access to YouTube, a day after a court ordered the suspension of a ban on Twitter, which PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan backed.

The telecoms authority (TIB) said it had taken an "administrative measure" against the site but another report suggests that talks are under way.

Some users found access blocked while others could still use the site.

Earlier, what appeared to be a leaked audio recording of Turkish officials discussing Syria appeared on YouTube.

It relates to a discussion of possible military operations in Syria, which was apparently attended by Turkey's intelligence chief, its foreign minister and the deputy head of the armed forces.

.....

rest of article here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26773702 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26773702)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on March 31, 2014, 07:59:42 PM

Video news report from Crac des Chevaliers crusader castle, worth a view to see the damage:

http://blogs.channel4.com/lindsey-hilsum-on-international-affairs/syrias-war-controls-castle/3711?1 (http://blogs.channel4.com/lindsey-hilsum-on-international-affairs/syrias-war-controls-castle/3711?1)

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on April 01, 2014, 07:34:38 PM
More quality reporting about Syria from Channel 4 -

Three reports worth watching firstly from Homs about the 1000 remainding holdout rebels.
Next surprising inside access to Hizbullah's war in Syria and the ramifications/war spilling into Lebanon.
The last item is the story of a British muslim activist driving an ambulance in Aleppo.

http://www.channel4.com/news/catch-up/ (http://www.channel4.com/news/catch-up/)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on April 02, 2014, 01:18:04 PM
Quote from: mongers on March 31, 2014, 07:59:42 PM

Video news report from Crac des Chevaliers crusader castle, worth a view to see the damage:

http://blogs.channel4.com/lindsey-hilsum-on-international-affairs/syrias-war-controls-castle/3711?1 (http://blogs.channel4.com/lindsey-hilsum-on-international-affairs/syrias-war-controls-castle/3711?1)

The rebels are slowly being crushed, though most now are likely radical Islamics. The reprisals against any Syrians suspected of being against Asad is going to continue for a long time now too.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on April 02, 2014, 01:32:39 PM
At least the Crac got to come out of retirement for one more bloody battle and it wasn't fatal.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on April 02, 2014, 01:39:58 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 02, 2014, 01:32:39 PM
At least the Crac got to come out of retirement for one more bloody battle and it wasn't fatal.

Did Assad call a coupla hard, pipe-hittin' niggers, who got to work on the homes there with a pair of pliers and a blow torch? Did he get medieval on their asses - literally?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 02, 2014, 06:36:07 PM
Quote from: Malthus on April 02, 2014, 01:39:58 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 02, 2014, 01:32:39 PM
At least the Crac got to come out of retirement for one more bloody battle and it wasn't fatal.

Did Assad call a coupla hard, pipe-hittin' niggers, who got to work on the homes there with a pair of pliers and a blow torch? Did he get medieval on their asses - literally?
:o Thought this was CdM until I looked over to see who it was.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on April 02, 2014, 07:11:33 PM
Quote from: Malthus on April 02, 2014, 01:39:58 PM
Did Assad call a coupla hard, pipe-hittin' niggers, who got to work on the homes there with a pair of pliers and a blow torch? Did he get medieval on their asses - literally?

His prisons do get medieval on their asses.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on April 02, 2014, 07:20:15 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 02, 2014, 01:32:39 PM
At least the Crac got to come out of retirement for one more bloody battle and it wasn't fatal.

Well, if the Crac was ever going to be destroyed it's good that it was destroyed in a battle between two separate group of murderous religious fanatics.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on April 02, 2014, 10:37:57 PM
Quote from: Viking on April 02, 2014, 07:20:15 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 02, 2014, 01:32:39 PM
At least the Crac got to come out of retirement for one more bloody battle and it wasn't fatal.

Well, i he Crac was ever going to be destroyed it's good that it was destroyed in a battle between two separate group of murderous religious fanatics.

It is a little worse for the wear but it still stands.  But yes it was a fitting use for the old fortress.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on August 26, 2014, 07:48:07 AM
Caught part of a AJ documentary about the fighting in Aleppo.

The rebels drag a number of bodies out of the river , the next shot is of the bodies in the back of a pickup and people gathered around.

One of the men is understandably enraged and shouts to the camera,

"Look, these are human beings" (gesturing towards the pile of bodies)

"The Jews and the Infidels, wouldn't have done that"

"Where are you Arabs, Presidents, Emirs,  Liars!"

"We are being killed by the Alawis, who do not fear God"


I don't think there's even a least worst outcome left in Syria. However it ends will be utterly dreadful, full scale massacres and ethnic slaughter/flight reminiscent of events in Turkey during and after WW1.

On seconds thoughts, maybe if Assad wins, the Syrian people will only have to endure one of the worst terrors of the last 100 years?

Syria seems that bleak.

........

"The Alawi
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Monoriu on August 26, 2014, 08:01:06 AM
I have totally forgotten that there is a war going on there.  The local media has stopped reporting on Syria since many months ago.  Languish is basically my only source of news on this. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on August 26, 2014, 08:01:40 AM
Quote from: mongers on April 01, 2014, 07:34:38 PM
More quality reporting about Syria from Channel 4 -

Three reports worth watching firstly from Homs about the 1000 remainding holdout rebels.
Next surprising inside access to Hizbullah's war in Syria and the ramifications/war spilling into Lebanon.
The last item is the story of a British muslim activist driving an ambulance in Aleppo.

http://www.channel4.com/news/catch-up/ (http://www.channel4.com/news/catch-up/)

You overdid it, Homs :mellow:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on August 26, 2014, 08:16:38 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on August 26, 2014, 08:01:06 AM
I have totally forgotten that there is a war going on there.  The local media has stopped reporting on Syria since many months ago.  Languish is basically my only source of news on this.
You're not getting any news about ISIS in Hong Kong? They've taken over a third of the country.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on August 26, 2014, 08:20:42 AM
Quote from: mongers on August 26, 2014, 07:48:07 AM
One of the men is understandably enraged and shouts to the camera,

"Look, these are human beings" (gesturing towards the pile of bodies)

"The Jews and the Infidels, wouldn't have done that"
The story left out of this is how this man was converted to a body after saying such a thing.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Maximus on August 26, 2014, 09:41:00 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on August 26, 2014, 08:16:38 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on August 26, 2014, 08:01:06 AM
I have totally forgotten that there is a war going on there.  The local media has stopped reporting on Syria since many months ago.  Languish is basically my only source of news on this.
You're not getting any news about ISIS in Hong Kong? They've taken over a third of the country.
I must have been sleeping when they overran Iran, Afghanistan and mainland PRC.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Monoriu on August 26, 2014, 09:41:33 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on August 26, 2014, 08:16:38 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on August 26, 2014, 08:01:06 AM
I have totally forgotten that there is a war going on there.  The local media has stopped reporting on Syria since many months ago.  Languish is basically my only source of news on this.
You're not getting any news about ISIS in Hong Kong? They've taken over a third of the country.

There is news about ISIS and Iraq, and the beheading of the American.  Nothing on Syria though.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on November 06, 2014, 02:30:30 AM
ISIS? Part of a Western plot to destroy Russia!

http://rt.com/politics/202499-islamic-state-sponsors-russian/

QuoteWestern special services might be behind ISIS terrorists – intelligence veteran

The leaders of Islamic terrorists could be under the direct influence of NATO and Western powers using their movements to threaten Russia's territorial integrity, says a former general of Russian military intelligence service.

"There are some grounds to suspect that American and British special services could support the Islamic extremists in order to target the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation," Lieutenant-General Nikolai Pushkaryov, formerly of the Central Intelligence Directorate of the Russian General Staff said in an interview with the RIA-Novosti news agency. "The top of these movements can be under the influence of NATO agents," he added.

The general also commented on the statement by the head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, who promised to destroy any Islamic terrorist who voiced threats against Russia. Kadyrov also told reporters that Chechen special services intended to hunt down and kill Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi – the head of the Islamic State group (also known as ISIL and ISIS), adding that this man had been recruited to work for the US by General David Petraeus, the former director of the CIA, and former commander of coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. Back then, Kadyrov claimed the Islamic State "was acting on orders from the West and Europe."

Pushkaryov said in his interview that he took Kadyrov's words very seriously and believed that the head of the Chechen Republic could bring his plans to fruition. "I have a great respect towards Ramzan Kadyrov. If he and his men want to find this man, they would be capable of doing it," he stated.

The head of Russia's Federal Security Service, Aleksandr Bortnikov named the Islamic State as a primary threat at the meeting of the heads of special services of the CIS states on Wednesday.

Bortnikov said that IS terrorists receive combat training and experience in Iraq and Syria and then return to their home countries, including the CIS nations, as instructors, recruiters and experts in the terrorist underground. He added that the Taliban and other radical groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan were ready to adopt these methods and this carried additional threats to the CIS countries.

Russia has acknowledged the threat that comes from the Islamic State and promised to support countries and groups fighting against the organization. However, when in September US Secretary of State John Kerry said that in his view Russia must join the international fight against the IS terrorists, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Department for New Challenges and Threats, Ilya Rogachev, said that the country "did not expect any invitations and was not going to buy entry tickets," into the US-led anti-IS coalition. Rogachev added that Russia was ready to help all IS opponents, including members of the coalition being formed by the US, but under the condition that they stop using double standards and remain within the framework of international law.

:bleeding:  :rolleyes: :tinfoil:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Grinning_Colossus on November 06, 2014, 03:59:16 AM
I recently had a discussion with a Russian who believed that. Now I know where it came from.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Warspite on November 06, 2014, 04:33:07 AM
The idea of ISIS as a Western conspiracy is quite widespread in the Middle East.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on November 06, 2014, 04:42:00 AM
Quote from: Warspite on November 06, 2014, 04:33:07 AM
The idea of ISIS as a Western conspiracy is quite widespread in the Middle East.

Tell me a single problem in the Middle East which is not blamed on the West and/or the Jews.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on November 06, 2014, 08:38:20 AM
Quote from: Warspite on November 06, 2014, 04:33:07 AM
The idea of ISIS as a Western conspiracy is quite widespread in the Middle East.

Heh, that is truly bizarre, given that ISIL is running roughshod, taking over towns and cities, and is in the news. Do the people of the Mid East think all of that is a put on by the ebil West?? Then too, I'm sure it isn't so widespread of a conspiracy to the people of Iraq and Syria who live under their control. And it can't be a conspiracy to the men and foolish women who travel to Syria to join up, women basically becoming indentured servants at best as third class citizens. I wonder how well that sits with the girls/women from western nations?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on November 06, 2014, 08:47:00 AM
Quote from: Tamas on November 06, 2014, 04:42:00 AM
Quote from: Warspite on November 06, 2014, 04:33:07 AM
The idea of ISIS as a Western conspiracy is quite widespread in the Middle East.

Tell me a single problem in the Middle East which is not blamed on the West and/or the Jews.

Pretty much everything is a conspiracy. It shows a lack of Enlightenment style use of reason when everybody considers ISIS not to be what they say they are, but rather a plot against themselves and sponsored by their enemies.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on November 06, 2014, 08:55:29 AM
Quote from: Tamas on November 06, 2014, 04:42:00 AM
Tell me a single problem in the Middle East which is not blamed on the West and/or the Jews.

:hmm:

Maybe something they don't see as a problem, like lack of rights for women or gays. But then you probably will have westerners blaming ourselves for those.  :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on November 06, 2014, 09:06:05 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on November 06, 2014, 08:55:29 AM
Quote from: Tamas on November 06, 2014, 04:42:00 AM
Tell me a single problem in the Middle East which is not blamed on the West and/or the Jews.

:hmm:

Maybe something they don't see as a problem, like lack of rights for women or gays. But then you probably will have westerners blaming ourselves for those.  :rolleyes:

Never doubt, there are western thinkers working on providing the intellectual basis for blaming this too on Bush.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on November 06, 2014, 09:33:21 AM
Quote from: Viking on November 06, 2014, 09:06:05 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on November 06, 2014, 08:55:29 AM
Quote from: Tamas on November 06, 2014, 04:42:00 AM
Tell me a single problem in the Middle East which is not blamed on the West and/or the Jews.

:hmm:

Maybe something they don't see as a problem, like lack of rights for women or gays. But then you probably will have westerners blaming ourselves for those.  :rolleyes:

Never doubt, there are western thinkers working on providing the intellectual basis for blaming this too on Bush.

Lol, ISIL doesn't need to waste the effort on propaganda when we have our own intellectual elites to do it for them.   ;)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on November 06, 2014, 09:44:37 AM
Quote from: KRonn on November 06, 2014, 09:33:21 AM
Quote from: Viking on November 06, 2014, 09:06:05 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on November 06, 2014, 08:55:29 AM
Quote from: Tamas on November 06, 2014, 04:42:00 AM
Tell me a single problem in the Middle East which is not blamed on the West and/or the Jews.

:hmm:

Maybe something they don't see as a problem, like lack of rights for women or gays. But then you probably will have westerners blaming ourselves for those.  :rolleyes:

Never doubt, there are western thinkers working on providing the intellectual basis for blaming this too on Bush.

Lol, ISIL doesn't need to waste the effort on propaganda when we have our own intellectual elites to do it for them.   ;)

No, the ISIS propaganda campaign towards us is a complete failure. They keep saying that "We want to kill you because you are  infidels!" and we keep ignoring them and blaming ourselves for what they do. It is denying these people agency. If I were denied agency like that I would be angry too.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on November 06, 2014, 10:23:20 AM
Quote from: Viking on November 06, 2014, 08:47:00 AM
Quote from: Tamas on November 06, 2014, 04:42:00 AM
Quote from: Warspite on November 06, 2014, 04:33:07 AM
The idea of ISIS as a Western conspiracy is quite widespread in the Middle East.

Tell me a single problem in the Middle East which is not blamed on the West and/or the Jews.

Pretty much everything is a conspiracy. It shows a lack of Enlightenment style use of reason when everybody considers ISIS not to be what they say they are, but rather a plot against themselves and sponsored by their enemies.

I typically share this opinion, but an idea has occurred to me.  If you live in a country where the government is constantly conspiring against the public, it would probably make it difficult to tell fantasy from reality.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on November 06, 2014, 01:28:03 PM
Quote from: Viking on November 06, 2014, 09:44:37 AM
Quote from: KRonn on November 06, 2014, 09:33:21 AM


Lol, ISIL doesn't need to waste the effort on propaganda when we have our own intellectual elites to do it for them.   ;)

No, the ISIS propaganda campaign towards us is a complete failure. They keep saying that "We want to kill you because you are  infidels!" and we keep ignoring them and blaming ourselves for what they do. It is denying these people agency. If I were denied agency like that I would be angry too.
Yeah, that is probably more accurate how we blame ourselves for everything, even in the face of extreme nastiness like ISIL. My view is that this is more about a cultural war within Islam between the radicals and the normal people. But blaming the west for everything fits and is a handy scapegoat for them to rally the troops, even though they've really made most of their own larger problems.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Hansmeister on November 06, 2014, 09:34:39 PM
Quote from: Viking on November 06, 2014, 09:44:37 AM
Quote from: KRonn on November 06, 2014, 09:33:21 AM
Quote from: Viking on November 06, 2014, 09:06:05 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on November 06, 2014, 08:55:29 AM
Quote from: Tamas on November 06, 2014, 04:42:00 AM
Tell me a single problem in the Middle East which is not blamed on the West and/or the Jews.

:hmm:

Maybe something they don't see as a problem, like lack of rights for women or gays. But then you probably will have westerners blaming ourselves for those.  :rolleyes:

Never doubt, there are western thinkers working on providing the intellectual basis for blaming this too on Bush.

Lol, ISIL doesn't need to waste the effort on propaganda when we have our own intellectual elites to do it for them.   ;)

No, the ISIS propaganda campaign towards us is a complete failure. They keep saying that "We want to kill you because you are  infidels!" and we keep ignoring them and blaming ourselves for what they do. It is denying these people agency. If I were denied agency like that I would be angry too.
So what you are saying is that we are to blame for them being angry at us?  :hmm:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Hansmeister on November 06, 2014, 10:22:46 PM
Well, the two main rebel groups in the east fighting ISIL have surrendered, rendering the Obama strategy, and I'm being charitable, inoperative.  The only rebels still left are concentrated in the west and fighting only against Assad, training rebels to fight ISIL can't wo if there aren't an rebels near them.

Then again I bel, like most experts, that Obama never had any real intention to fight ISIL, he just wanted to pretend he is doing something until after the election.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 06, 2014, 10:37:01 PM
If the moderate rebels turn out to be a bust it could end up biting Hillary in her titanic ass.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Hansmeister on November 06, 2014, 10:52:40 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 06, 2014, 10:37:01 PM
If the moderate rebels turn out to be a bust it could end up biting Hillary in her titanic ass.  :ph34r:

Well, to be fair, the strategy of training 5,000 rebels over the next 6 months to take on the 20,000 men of ISIL in Syria never sounded like it would have had any probability of success. Without any remaining bases in eastern Syria that option is now closed.

On the other side the ANSF has suffered over 9,000 KIA in the last two years, and a much larger number of WIA and defections in Afghanistan, losses that are not sustainable, meaning we will either have to reverse the drawdown or hope our embassy has a large enough helipad on the roof. On current course Afghanistan will collapse before Obama's term is up.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 07, 2014, 12:45:39 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 06, 2014, 10:37:01 PM
If the moderate rebels turn out to be a bust it could end up biting Hillary in her titanic ass.  :ph34r:

Turn out?  That ship sailed a couple years ago I think.
I agree with Hans that the strategy is just to go through the motions for appearances.  That and help the Kurds just enough they can hang on.
However, it is not clear that there is really a better option out there. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Monoriu on November 07, 2014, 12:50:22 AM
I have not followed developments in Syria or this thread.  So is there a three-way war in Syria now (government, rebels, ISIL)?  Or what? 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 07, 2014, 12:51:57 AM
It's every pissant faction for itself.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on November 07, 2014, 01:07:35 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on November 07, 2014, 12:50:22 AM
I have not followed developments in Syria or this thread.  So is there a three-way war in Syria now (government, rebels, ISIL)?  Or what?

Close, the "rebels" probably count for at least three more separate factions.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 07, 2014, 01:22:20 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 07, 2014, 12:45:39 AM
However, it is not clear that there is really a better option out there.

I'd like to see a strategy beyond the usual let's-support-the-least-of-the-worst-now-and-worry-about-them-being-the-worst-later playbook.  But there really isn't one when it comes to these people.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Monoriu on November 07, 2014, 01:26:33 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 07, 2014, 01:22:20 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 07, 2014, 12:45:39 AM
However, it is not clear that there is really a better option out there.

I'd like to see a strategy beyond the usual let's-support-the-least-of-the-worst-now-and-worry-about-them-being-the-worst-later playbook.  But there really isn't one when it comes to these people.

What about let-them-fight-it-out-themselves-while-we-watch-from-a-safe-distance?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 07, 2014, 01:27:16 AM
Let's not and say we did.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on November 07, 2014, 01:29:51 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on November 07, 2014, 01:26:33 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 07, 2014, 01:22:20 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 07, 2014, 12:45:39 AM
However, it is not clear that there is really a better option out there.

I'd like to see a strategy beyond the usual let's-support-the-least-of-the-worst-now-and-worry-about-them-being-the-worst-later playbook.  But there really isn't one when it comes to these people.

What about let-them-fight-it-out-themselves-while-we-watch-from-a-safe-distance?

We could have done that...and ISIS would probably be controlling a bit more of Syria (hard to say if Assad would be on the run this fast), and there'd be street battles in Baghdad, and Irbil may have fallen (pretty much a death knell for the Kurds).

Probably some Iranians running amok in there too.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Viking on November 07, 2014, 02:48:55 AM
Quote from: Hansmeister on November 06, 2014, 09:34:39 PM
Quote from: Viking on November 06, 2014, 09:44:37 AM

No, the ISIS propaganda campaign towards us is a complete failure. They keep saying that "We want to kill you because you are  infidels!" and we keep ignoring them and blaming ourselves for what they do. It is denying these people agency. If I were denied agency like that I would be angry too.
So what you are saying is that we are to blame for them being angry at us?  :hmm:

In a tragic case of appearances creating reality, yes, it probably contributes. The more relevant thought here though is that it prevents us from being able to think and act rationally too.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 07, 2014, 05:12:46 AM
Quote from: Hansmeister on November 06, 2014, 10:22:46 PM
Well, the two main rebel groups in the east fighting ISIL have surrendered, rendering the Obama strategy, and I'm being charitable, inoperative.  The only rebels still left are concentrated in the west and fighting only against Assad, training rebels to fight ISIL can't wo if there aren't an rebels near them.

Link?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on November 07, 2014, 07:20:39 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on November 07, 2014, 01:26:33 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 07, 2014, 01:22:20 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 07, 2014, 12:45:39 AM
However, it is not clear that there is really a better option out there.

I'd like to see a strategy beyond the usual let's-support-the-least-of-the-worst-now-and-worry-about-them-being-the-worst-later playbook.  But there really isn't one when it comes to these people.

What about let-them-fight-it-out-themselves-while-we-watch-from-a-safe-distance?

Imagine they're like a large bunch of demonstrators blocking the most important road in the Middle East, the road to peace, what do you think we should do then ?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Monoriu on November 07, 2014, 07:53:23 AM
Quote from: mongers on November 07, 2014, 07:20:39 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on November 07, 2014, 01:26:33 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 07, 2014, 01:22:20 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 07, 2014, 12:45:39 AM
However, it is not clear that there is really a better option out there.

I'd like to see a strategy beyond the usual let's-support-the-least-of-the-worst-now-and-worry-about-them-being-the-worst-later playbook.  But there really isn't one when it comes to these people.

What about let-them-fight-it-out-themselves-while-we-watch-from-a-safe-distance?

Imagine they're like a large bunch of demonstrators blocking the most important road in the Middle East, the road to peace, what do you think we should do then ?

Nothing, of course. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on November 07, 2014, 09:22:14 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on November 07, 2014, 01:26:33 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 07, 2014, 01:22:20 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 07, 2014, 12:45:39 AM
However, it is not clear that there is really a better option out there.

I'd like to see a strategy beyond the usual let's-support-the-least-of-the-worst-now-and-worry-about-them-being-the-worst-later playbook.  But there really isn't one when it comes to these people.

What about let-them-fight-it-out-themselves-while-we-watch-from-a-safe-distance?

And laugh at the stupid Americans for getting mixed up in it? I think you're already following that one. Seems to be working ok.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Monoriu on November 07, 2014, 10:49:54 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on November 07, 2014, 09:22:14 AM


And laugh at the stupid Americans for getting mixed up in it? I think you're already following that one. Seems to be working ok.

Perhaps you should try that one too :contract:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on November 16, 2014, 09:31:05 PM
Sad that these murders or war crimes are becoming almost routine and not commented on:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-30076629 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-30076629)

Quote
US President Barack Obama has condemned the killing of US aid worker Abdul-Rahman Kassig as "an act of pure evil".

The Islamic State (IS) militant group released a video showing a masked man standing over a severed head, which the White House confirmed was Mr Kassig.

His parents said he died "as a result of his love for the Syrian people".

Mr Kassig, 26, was taken while working for a refugee group. He is the fifth Western hostage to be killed by IS, which controls parts of Syria and Iraq.

The president praised Mr Kassig as a humanitarian and said he was "taken from us in an act of pure evil by a terrorist group that the world rightly associates with inhumanity".

"Today we grieve together, yet we also recall that the indomitable spirit of goodness and perseverance that burned so brightly in Abdul-Rahman Kassig," he said.

Mr Obama's comments came as he flew back to the US from the G20 summit in Australia.
.....
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Siege on November 16, 2014, 10:53:58 PM
Syria was the Lion of Damascus.
Emilious Salgary for the win.

The Black Cusair.
Sandokan.
The Captain Storm.

Italian writing for the win.
fuck Shaspekeapear.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on November 16, 2014, 11:19:42 PM
Quote from: Siege on November 16, 2014, 10:53:58 PM
Syria was the Lion of Damascus.
Emilious Salgary for the win.

The Black Cusair.
Sandokan.
The Captain Storm.

Italian writing for the win.
fuck Shaspekeapear.

Apparently these cultists are intentionally gathering for what they believe is the end of the world. The video, which I haven't and won't watch, apparently show them unmasked as they go about their murders specifically identifies the place it happened, Dabiq in Syria, which is another place prophesied to be where Armageddon* will start.


* yes I know.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on February 15, 2015, 03:26:03 PM
Wonder what will happen if this turns out to be true?  :hmm:

http://www.timesofisrael.com/syrian-opposition-claims-capture-of-female-russian-soldier/

Quote
Syrian opposition claims capture of female Russian soldier

'There is no longer a Syrian army, only Iran-backed militias,' says rebel commander
By Elhanan Miller February 15, 2015, 8:14 pm

For the first time since the eruption of the Syrian revolution almost four years ago, opposition forces have captured a female Russian soldier suspected of operating missile systems recently sent from Moscow to the Assad regime, a Saudi daily reported on Sunday.

According to Al-Watan, the Russian soldier was captured by the Free Syrian Army in the southern front, which has witnessed heavy fighting in recent days between rebel groups and Assad forces backed by Iran and Lebanese terror group Hezbollah. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a London-based watchdog, reported last week that 5,000 Iranian and Hezbollah fighters have been deployed to the Quneitra and Daraa provinces, near the border with Israel.

The Syrian rebels have also managed to capture a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards officer among a group of 40 pro-Assad fighters arrested in recent days. Al-Watan reported that the identity of the men will be exposed within days in order to prove "the involvement of Iran, Hezbollah and Russia in the fighting alongside the Assad regime in Syria."

On Saturday, a Syrian opposition group, the al-Furqan Brigades, published footage of an Iranian officer killed in battle. Opposition news website Zaman al-Wasl identified the man as Haj Abbas Abdullahi, one of Iran's most decorated snipers and a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.

In an interview with the website on Sunday, Muhammad al-Khatib, commander of the al-Furqan Brigades, estimated that 80% of the fighters combating his forces are "Shiite mercenaries" from countries as far as Pakistan and Afghanistan, assembled under a unit called "the Fatimids Brigade."

"There is no longer a thing called the Syrian Army," Khatib told Zaman al-Wasl. "We are fighting militias from across the world under Iranian command."

© 2015 The Times of Israel, All rights reserved.


Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on February 15, 2015, 04:44:06 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on February 15, 2015, 03:26:03 PM
Wonder what will happen if this turns out to be true?  :hmm:
....

Nothing at all?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on February 15, 2015, 04:47:56 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on February 15, 2015, 03:26:03 PM
Wonder what will happen if this turns out to be true?  :hmm:

First of all what difference would it make?  Secondly I hardly think that guy is a reliable and objective source.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on February 15, 2015, 06:15:06 PM
Quotecaptured a female Russian soldier

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.meh.ro%2Fthumbnail%2F2010_02%2Fmeh.ro2203.jpg&hash=5dd372e9af613e29f49fe621621e78b016d77446)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 27, 2015, 08:38:11 PM
Looks like Assad just doesn't have the manpower to win, even with all the Iranian aid he's been recieving.

Not sure what more the Iranians can do, they may be forced to cut bait eventually, whether they want to or not.

http://news.yahoo.com/why-iran-standing-weakened-expensive-ally-syria-112503330.html

Quote"Why Iran is standing by its weakened, and expensive, ally Syria

Iran already spends $35 billion a year to prop up the Assad regime, according to one estimate. Iranian officials say Syria is of supreme strategic importance.

Christian Science Monitor
By Nicholas Blanford
14 hours ago
     
Iran has proven critical in helping keep President Bashar al-Assad in power after four years of bloody war, dispatching thousands of soldiers and paramilitary fighters to bolster Syria's flagging army and billions of dollars in loans to prop up its economy.

Yet, despite this massive show of support, the Assad regime in the past month has lost ground against opposition forces in a series of battlefield reversals. And, crucially, it faces a serious shortage of fresh soldiers and militiamen willing to continue fighting, making it ever more reliant on Iran, its close ally of 35 years.

Iranian officials have declared that Syria is of supreme strategic importance, and appear unwilling to reconsider the military option in defeating the anti-Assad rebels. The question is how much longer Iran, a country burdened by international sanctions, can afford to continue allocating funds, materiel, and manpower to Mr. Assad while incurring ever greater animosity – and now blowback – from the region's Sunni states.

The Iranians could probably provide additional foreign fighters ... but at a certain point the marginal utility of additional foreign forces becomes smaller and smaller," says Robert Ford, a senior fellow with the Washington-based Middle East Institute and US ambassador to Syria between 2010 and 2014. "It's not that the rebels will overwhelm the regime, but I think the regime's position becomes harder and harder as the war of attrition slowly slides against it."

The Syrian Army is estimated to have suffered 80,000 to 100,000 dead and wounded in four years of war, dealing a punishing blow in terms of manpower and morale. To compensate for the weakened army, the Iranians brought in thousands of Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps soldiers, fighters from Lebanon's militant Shiite Hezbollah party, and Shiite paramilitary forces from Iraq and Afghanistan. It also helped establish the 80,000-strong National Defense Force militia composed of Assad loyalists, mainly Alawites, a Shiite splinter sect to which Assad belongs.

While Iran's military aid has bought the Assad regime some breathing space, it still lacks sufficient strength to launch multiple offensives and is forced to choose carefully where to deploy its forces.

"There is not a critical mass available [for Assad] to achieve victory," says a former Syrian official who requested anonymity. "To prevail, 200,000 to 300,000 mothers need to be convinced to send their sons to fight. But why would a Sunni mother and father send their son to die for Bashar al-Assad?"

The critical manpower shortage is compounded by the recent coordination on Syria policy between the region's Sunni powerhouses – Saudi Arabia and Turkey – in cooperation with Jordan and Qatar.

In early March, Saudi Arabia's new monarch, King Salman, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, agreed on the "necessity of enhancing support to the Syrian opposition in a way that aims at yielding results."

STRATEGIC BRIDGE TO HEZBOLLAH

Those results have been quick to materialize. In just the past month, the Assad regime has lost the city of Idlib in the north, Bosra ash-Sham in the south, and the Nasib border crossing with Jordan. On Saturday, rebel groups captured another northern town, Jisr al-Shughour. In the south, an Iran-led offensive in Deraa and Quneitra provinces has stalled against tougher than expected opposition, while a much-anticipated Hezbollah-led offensive in the Qalamoun region north of Damascus appears to have been postponed.

The capture of Jisr al-Shughour means that anti-Assad forces control the two largest urban areas in Idlib Province. It also allows them to mount a westward offensive on Latakia, a regime stronghold on the Mediterranean coast. If the rebels succeed in driving Assad's forces further south from Idlib, the link between Damascus and the northern city of Aleppo would become perilously thin.

Syria represents the vital geo-strategic cog connecting Tehran to Hezbollah, the nucleus of an "axis of resistance" against Israel and Western ambitions for the Middle East.

In February 2014, Mehdi Taeb, a senior Iranian cleric, underlined the importance of Syria to Iran in stark terms, saying it is a "strategic province for us."

"If the enemy attacks us and wants to take either Syria or [the Iranian province of] Khuzestan, the priority is to keep Syria," he said. "If we keep Syria, we can get Khuzestan back too, but if we lose Syria, we cannot keep Tehran."

IRAN DOESN'T NEED ALEPPO

Diplomatic sources in Beirut estimate that Iran spends between $1 billion and $2 billion a month in Syria in cash handouts and military support. Staffan de Mistura, the United Nations envoy to Syria, recently told a private gathering in Washington that Iran has been channeling as much as $35 billion a year into Syria, according to one of the participants at the meeting.

"Iran has always considered Syria its gateway to the Arab region. I don't think that assessment has changed," says Randa Slim, a Hezbollah expert and a director at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.

Still, Assad's recent setbacks in the south and north of the country may compel Iran to reconsider its military options in Syria, including the possibility of advising Assad to abandon Aleppo if the rebels extend their reach in Idlib province.

The loss of Aleppo, Syria's largest city and the country's commercial engine, would represent a major psychological blow to the regime. But Iran's strategic interests in Syria do not require Assad's control over the entire country, only the vital corridor connecting Damascus to Tartous on the Mediterranean coast, which runs adjacent to the border with Lebanon. That corridor would enable Iran to continue providing weapons to Hezbollah.

"Iran is not committed to the person of Bashar al-Assad.... They're committed to preserving their interests in Syria," says Karim Sadjadpour, senior associate in the Middle East Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

NO PARTNERS OTHER THAN ASSAD REGIME

However, Iran has invested so heavily in the regime – to the exclusion of other parties in Syria – that Tehran has little choice but to double down on its embattled ally.

"Outside the regime, Iran has no contacts in Syria. Syrian businessmen trade with other Arab countries," says the former Syrian official, adding, ironically, that the billions of dollars handed by Iran to Syria "is financing Syrian imports from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, not from Iran."

If the nascent deal between Iran and the international community over the Islamic Republic's nuclear program is concluded in the coming months, it could end the crippling sanctions on Tehran, swelling the country's coffers once more. But the combination of a more assertive Sunni regional alliance against Assad and the desperate shortage of manpower to fend off anti-Assad rebels potentially bodes ill for the Syrian regime – and Iran's reach into the Levant – in the long term, analysts say.

"I often think of this situation as the German army in World War I in 1917 being slowly ground down on the Western Front," says Ford, the former ambassador to Syria. "I think it's a slow progression, and the Iranians can slow it further, but I would be surprised if they can reverse this."



Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 29, 2015, 02:20:51 AM
Just a few months ago it seemed that Asad would definitely hang on and manage to win, what with the FSA being ground down between the government and ISIS and with ISIS getting hammered from the air in Iraq. Now, everywhere I look all I see is predictions of doom. They're just running out of manpower.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/29/world/middleeast/an-eroding-syrian-army-points-to-strain.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share&_r=1

QuoteAn Eroding Syrian Army Points to Strain


By ANNE BARNARD, HWAIDA SAAD and ERIC SCHMITTAPRIL 28, 2015

BEIRUT, Lebanon — The Syrian Army has suffered a string of defeats from re-energized insurgents and is struggling to replenish its ranks as even pro-government families increasingly refuse to send sons to poorly defended units on the front lines. These developments raise newly urgent questions about the durability of President Bashar al-Assad's rule.

"The trend lines for Assad are bad and getting worse," said a senior United States official in Washington, who nevertheless cautioned that things have not yet reached "a boiling point."

The erosion of the army is forcing the government to rely ever more heavily on Syrian and foreign militias, especially Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite group allied with Iran. Hezbollah now leads or even directs the fight in many places, angering some Syrian officers, said several Syrian soldiers, and also the senior United States official and a Syrian with close ties to the security establishment, both of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential intelligence assessments.

This month, government forces have crumbled or fled in areas long cited by officials as markers of enduring state control. Insurgents seized Idlib, a northern provincial capital, and the lone working border crossing with Jordan in the south. Counteroffensives failed, and advances this week have brought a newly cohesive insurgent coalition closer than ever to Mr. Assad's coastal strongholds. The coalition consists mainly of Islamist groups that include Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, the Nusra Front, but oppose the Islamic State.

Throughout the country, there are signs of strain that contrast with Mr. Assad's public confidence. The government recently dismissed the heads of two of its four main intelligence agencies after they quarreled; one later died, reportedly after being beaten by the other's guards.

Officials in provincial capitals like Aleppo and Dara'a are making contingency plans to preserve cash and antiquities and evacuate civilians. Foreign exchange reserves, $30 billion at the start of the war, have dwindled to $1 billion.

The already-crowded coastal provinces are straining with new arrivals from Idlib, with some saying officials have turned them away. In central Damascus, checkpoints are fewer and more sparsely staffed, as militiamen are sent to fight on the outskirts, and young men increasingly evade army service.

Even in areas populated by minority sects that fear hard-line Islamist groups like Nusra and the Islamic State — such as Druse in the south, Assyrian Christians in the north, and Ismailis in Hama — numerous residents say they are sending their sons abroad to avoid the draft, or keeping them home to protect villages.

That has accelerated the transformation of Syria's once-centralized armed forces into something beginning to resemble that of the insurgents: a patchwork of local and foreign fighters whose interests and priorities do not always align.

Four years ago, Syria's army had 250,000 soldiers; now, because of casualties and desertions, it has 125,000 regulars, alongside 125,000 pro-government militia members, including Iranian-trained Iraqis, Pakistanis and Afghan Hazaras, according to the senior American official in Washington.

Continue reading the main story

And Syrians are not always in charge, especially where Hezbollah, the best trained and equipped of the foreign militias, is involved.

"Every area where there is Hezbollah, the command is in their hands," said the Syrian with security connections. "You do something, you have to ask their permission."

That, he said, rankled senior security officials who recalled the rule of Mr. Assad's father, Hafez, in the 1980s, when Hezbollah's patron Iran was the junior partner in the alliance with Syria.

American officials are exploring how to exploit resulting tensions between Syrian and Hezbollah commanders, said the senior American official.

An official in the region sympathetic to Hezbollah said that enemies were trying to exploit natural tensions that "happen between allies, and between brothers and sisters in the same house," but would not succeed.

"Even if Hezbollah does battle alone, it is with Syrian approval," said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. "Hezbollah is only a stone that helps the builder."

But others see a loss of Syrian sovereignty to Iran, which needs Syria as a conduit to arm Hezbollah. Charles Lister, a Syria expert at the Brookings Doha Center in Doha, Qatar, said Iran with the help of Hezbollah and other militias is building "a state within a state in Syria — an insurance policy to protect itself against any future Assad demise."

Ali, 23, a soldier on leave in Damascus from the southern front, said one of his officers, a major, had complained that any Hezbollah fighter was "more important than a Syrian general."

Then there is simple jealousy. Hezbollah fighters are paid in dollars, while Syrian soldiers get depreciating Syrian pounds. Hezbollah fighters get new black cars and meat with rice, Ali said, while Syrian soldiers make do with dented Russian trucks and stale bread.

A student who recently fled Damascus after being constantly stopped at checkpoints to prove he is not a deserter said that Hezbollah now runs his neighborhood in the old city and once helped him solve a problem between his brother and security forces. (Syrian police, he said, are so little seen that people now smoke hashish openly.)

"If you have Hezbollah wasta," or connections, he said, "your problems will be solved." The student identified himself only as Hamed Al Adem, a name he uses as a performance artist, to protect family members still in Damascus.

Even so, Hezbollah is not in a position to bail out Mr. Assad the way it did in 2013, when it sent hundreds of fighters to crush the insurgent hub of Qusayr, near the Lebanese border.

Hezbollah now has more fighters and advisers in Syria than ever, about 5,000, American intelligence officials said. But, said the Syrian with security connections, they "only interfere in areas that are in their own interests."

The official sympathetic to Hezbollah said it has "maybe thousands" of fighters along the Lebanese border, hundreds in the south, bordering Israel, and only dozens around divided Aleppo, Syria's largest city.

Continue reading the main story Continue reading the main story

Continue reading the main story

It had none in Idlib city, which he said may have fallen because some Syrian officers failed to correctly assess threats.

The Syrian with security ties said the leadership had not made a priority of defending Idlib. Many government troops, he said, fled after insurgents knocked out their communications network and called "God is Great" from the mosques.

"Damascus and the Syrian coast, other than this nothing is important. Nothing," he said, adding of Mr. Assad: "He doesn't give a damn if Syria is destroyed."

One long-serving soldier said his cousin called from a hastily dug foxhole near Idlib to send shaky goodbyes to his mother. The soldier, who serves on another front and has lost an uncle and a cousin in battle, was enraged to hear that the 10 men pinned down there lacked even a vehicle to flee.

"If I have a kid, I won't send him to the army," he declared, complaining that his monthly pay covers just 10 days' worth of expenses. "Why be killed or slaughtered?"

In Sweida, the mostly pro-government, mostly Druse southern province, "In every single house there is one man at least wanted for the army service," said Abu Tayem, a Druse activist there.

Last week, he said, after a friend of his was arrested for evading the army, residents attacked security officers, captured one and traded him for the prisoner. Recently, the government tried to recruit Druse forces to be trained by Hezbollah, but few signed up after hearing they would be asked to fight Sunnis in neighboring Dara'a.

To enlist at this point would be foolish, not to speak of dangerous, said Majed, 19, a Druse whose father helped him evade the draft. "When the regime is gone, then our neighbors will be our enemies," he said.

Fayez Korko, 48, said he helped organize an Assyrian militia in northeastern Syria after villagers concluded that the government's promises of protection were "empty words." He called the government "the best of the worst" — better than extremist Islamists — but said that Assyrians would rather die defending their villages than on faraway fronts.

Events like the fall of Idlib, said the Syrian with security ties, are frustrating even a core government constituency — minority Alawites, who belong to Mr. Assad's sect and disproportionately serve in the military. They are beginning to doubt that the president can protect them, as they gambled in sticking with him for an existential fight, said the Syrian, who is Alawite.

"Syria is not you," he said, addressing Mr. Assad, "and you are not Syria."

Anne Barnard and Hwaida Saad reported from Beirut, and Eric Schmitt from Washington. Reporting was contributed by Maher Samaan and Ben Hubbard from Beirut; Somini Sengupta from Amman, Jordan; and an employee of The New York Times from Damascus, Syria.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on May 13, 2015, 12:54:34 AM
Tons of evidence regarding Assad's atrocities have been smuggled out of Syria

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/12/syria-truth-smugglers-bashar-al-assad-war-crimes
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on May 13, 2015, 04:02:09 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 13, 2015, 12:54:34 AM
Tons of evidence regarding Assad's atrocities have been smuggled out of Syria

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/12/syria-truth-smugglers-bashar-al-assad-war-crimes

and still he's preferable over the ISIS-types
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on May 13, 2015, 10:17:44 PM
Bad news all around  :(

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-05-13/assad-is-said-to-be-hiding-chemical-weapons-in-syria

Quote

U.S. Says Assad Caught With Sarin. Again.

Josh Rogin Eli Lake
comments icon33 time iconMay 13, 2015 6:00 AM EDT
By  Josh Rogin   &  Eli Lake   

The U.S. government was informed months ago that an international monitoring body found traces of chemical weapons that President Bashar al-Assad had promised to turn over, including sarin gas -- a clear violation of the deal he struck with President Obama after crossing the administration's "red line" two years ago.

Officials from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons told the Obama administration early this year that its inspectors had found traces of two banned chemical weapons during an inspection of the Syrian government's Scientific Studies and Research Center in the district of Barzeh near Damascus, two administration officials told us. A report by Reuters May 8 said that OPCW inspectors had found traces of sarin and VX nerve agent at the site in separate inspections in December and January.

The discovery set off a months-long debate inside the administration about how to respond. President Obama is said to have not yet decided. Meanwhile, a coalition of rebel groups on the ground has been attacking the area around the facility, raising the danger that the chemical weapons could fall into the hands of the rebels, many of whom are linked to Islamic extremists.

"The real danger is if the regime loses control of these chemical materials," one administration official who works on the Middle East told us.

This official, who was not authorized to speak on the record about the highly sensitive intelligence gathered by the OPCW, said that the discovery confirmed long-held suspicions inside the U.S. government that Syria was not completely forthcoming when it declared its chemical weapons in 2013 (part of a bargain to avoid U.S. airstrikes).

"The sarin revelations shouldn't be a surprise given the regime's track record," former U.S. Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford told us. "It's a violation of the deal we struck with the Russians and it's a violation of the deal the Syrian regime struck with the UN."

The OPCW's discovery shows that Assad has violated United Nations Security Council Resolution 2118, which codified the deal in 2013 and required Assad to declare all of his chemical weapons stockpiles and turn them over for destruction, Ford said. The resolution provides for penalties against the Syrian government for violations under Chapter 7, including possible sanctions or use of military force.

Ford said that the Syrian regime was also in violation of the deal because it has used chlorine gas against civilians; U.S. officials say that continues to this day. The use of chlorine as a weapon is a violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention, which Assad acceded to as part of the 2013 deal.

"Deterrence needs to be established, and that is going to require Chapter 7 action by the international community. It's time to move forward on that," said Ford, now a resident scholar at the Middle East Institute. "Regarding the sarin, I have not seen any signs that the administration has followed up on that."

U.S. officials said that the response to Assad's chemical weapons is still being debated within the administration and that their use against civilians was part of discussions between Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian officials Tuesday in Moscow.

The officials said that the Assad regime was informed of the discovery and subsequently barred OPCW inspectors from returning to the facility. OPCW spokesman Peter Sawczak declined to comment on the chemical weapons discoveries but said that no final determination had been made.

"Consultations between the OPCW and Syria to clarify Syria's declaration are ongoing," he said. "These consultations are necessarily of a confidential nature."

The State Department and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence also declined to comment.

Former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn said his assessment was that Assad was concealing many chemical weapons sites and most likely still has chemical weapons capability. "It's nearly impossible to confirm that Syria got rid of all their chemical weapons," he told us. "Their track record is not one of full compliance on anything."

A senior intelligence official told us that the U.S., working with the UN, the OPCW and other international partners, has intelligence indicating that more than 10 of Assad's suspected chemical weapons sites had not been disclosed. But the U.S. didn't always favor confronting Assad about them.

"We knew of sites that Assad didn't declare," this official said. "It's a balancing act. You want to do something to get rid of it, but you also don't want to show them all your cards."

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power was the first high-ranking U.S. official to publicly call out the Assad regime for the "discrepancies" in its declarations of chemical weapons stockpiles, last September. Power's skepticism came only one month after Obama's "mission accomplished" moment, when he said that Syria's "declared" chemical stockpiles had been eliminated.

Last week, Power told Charlie Rose that the international community has destroyed 98 percent of Assad's "declared" chemical weapons. When asked how many chemical weapons Assad hasn't declared, she said: "That is an open question. That is something we are pushing the OPCW on."

"I think you are going to see a push on diplomacy in the coming weeks, and it is our hope is that if the nuclear deal can go forward and we can get the terms we need in that space, that you will start to see a shift in Iran's posture," said Power.

She also said that although the OPCW has no mandate to assign accountability for the use of chlorine bombs, "everybody knows" the Assad regime is responsible because, among other things, they are the only involved party that has helicopters to drop those bombs.

The administration has always said that the deal to get Assad to turn over his chemical weapons was one of the successes of U.S. policy on Syria, but within Syria chemical weapons are still killing civilians at an alarming rate.

For the international community, the inspectors' revelation that Assad has kept banned chemical weapons is important; with that report, the UN would have grounds to hold the regime accountable for breaking the 2013 deal. But first, the OPCW has to publicly declare what it found in Barzeh.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on May 13, 2015, 10:58:35 PM
I wonder what a non-alarming rate of people killed by chemical weapons looks like.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on May 19, 2015, 05:41:14 PM
al-Nasura has captured a key regime military base.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/19/syria-rebels-seize-key-regime-base-mastouma-idlib

The Telegraph claims that a third of Alawite men of military age have been killed in battle.  :o

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/11518232/In-Syrias-war-Alawites-pay-heavy-price-for-loyalty-to-Bashar-al-Assad.html
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on May 26, 2015, 11:05:44 PM
If true, this  would be another huge ISIS victory.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/565341-syria-regime-prepares-deir-ezzor-evacuation

QuoteSyria regime prepares
Deir Ezzor evacuation

Following its victory in Palmyra, ISIS now threatens the regime's eastern holdout

BEIRUT – Reports have emerged that the Syrian regime has been preparing a military evacuation from Deir Ezzor after ISIS' victory in Palmyra cut ground routes to the besieged city.

"The Syrian regime is preparing to withdraw its forces in batches from Deir Ezzor," as ISIS continues its offensive to seize the city, Alaraby Aljadeed reported Monday.

A local media activist, identifying himself as Mujahid al-Shami, told the London-based daily that Damascus had begun to move military supplies out of a key base northwest of the city.

Another media activist, who refused to disclose his name, said that "the regime is emptying the city's museum of all its statues and artifacts."

Meanwhile, pro-opposition Souria Net reported Tuesday that signs suggesting the regime is about to "withdraw en-masse" have appeared in the city.

Deir Ezzor residents from the regime controlled Al-Jawra and Al-Qusour neighborhoods told the outlet that patrols passing through the areas have become less frequent due to a lack of manpower.

Reports of Damascus preparing the withdrawal come after ISIS seized Palmyra earlier in the month, cutting the last ground resupply route to the regime's besieged position in Deir Ezzor.

In early May, ISIS launched a new offensive against regime troops holding out in the city, the latest in a series of campaigns against the Syrian army that began in mid-2014.

Last fall, the militants failed in a bid to seize the military airport and the city's industrial area, as well as Huweijat Sakr, an Island on the Euphrates River, which runs through the middle of Deir Ezzor.

Fierce back-and-forth fighting has since raged in the city, with the regime and ISIS launching a series of attacks and counterattacks against each other.

Transferring weapons

A member of the Deir Ezzor Is Being Slaughtered Silently activist group told Alaraby Aljadeed that "a large quantity of military ordnance in depots in Ayash belonging to the 137th Artillery Brigade is being moved to the Deir Ezzor Military Airbase."

His claim was echoed by a resident of Deir Ezzor's Al-Rawwad suburb, who told Souria Net that he had seen Soviet-made ZiL military trucks arriving empty from the direction of the Syrian army's 137th Brigade base and heading towards defense depots in the Ayash area.

The trucks then returned loaded with what were clearly large quantities of weapons and military equipment, he told the outlet.

The eye-witness explained that the depots in the Ayash area were built at the end of the 1970's and that some of them can be seen clearly while others are subterranean.

The Deir Ezzor resident added that people who have done military service at the location say it houses enough war materiel "to oust the regime and all the rebel factions."

Bribes to leave

Amid reports of an evacuation, Souria Net cited another Deir Ezzor resident as saying that regime soldiers with connections are buying their way out of the city.

"We no longer see them strutting around as they used to do, day and night," Sari, an Al-Jawra resident, told the anti-Damascus outlet.

"Whenever I ask about any of them I hear that he has gone on a mission to Damascus."

"Then I find out that he paid a bribe of hundreds of thousands so that he could go without asking anyone."

"There has been talk that some of the officers who were a pillar of combat operations here have absconded."

"There are also rumors of a dispute between the top security and army chiefs. [Apparently] each side has held the other responsible."

Precarious position

The Syrian regime has managed to maintain its presence in the city of Deir Ezzor despite the rebel takeover of the rest of the surrounding province in 2013. One year later, the eastern Syrian region was seized by ISIS.

The regime holds most of the city's neighborhoods along the western banks of the Euphrates, while ISIS has established a bridgehead in the center of the city as well as outside of the airbase to the southeast.

Pro-government forces also maintain control over a swathe of territory stretching to the west and northwest of the provincial capital, and have counted on a ground re-supply route running from Homs through Palmyra to the city as well as aerial supply via the Deir Ezzor Military Airbase.

However, the mid-May ISIS offensive in Syria's desert region worsened the already fraught situation of the Syrian military in Deir Ezzor after the Islamist militants seized Palmyra and the nearby town of Sukhna, effectively cutting land-based logistical lines.

The regime has attached importance to the defense of Deir Ezzor, as part of the strategy repeatedly vocalized by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to hold onto all areas of Syria.

Damascus demonstrated this in 2014 when it dispatched the crack Republican Guard's 104th Brigade to the city under the command of Brigadier General Issam Zahreddine, a leading Druze officer within the regime's ranks.

Amid recent regime reverses elsewhere in the country, most notably in Idlib and Palmyra, reports have emerged that Damascus was considering a change in strategy to withdraw its forces to protect core government-held areas stretching from Syria's coast through Homs down to Damascus.

On May 24, AFP quoted the head of Al-Watan, a leading pro-regime paper, as saying that "it is quite understandable that the Syrian army should withdraw to protect large cities where much of the population is located."

Meanwhile, an unnamed government figure told the agency that "the division of Syria is inevitable. The regime wants to control the coast, the two central cities of Hama and Homs and the capital Damascus."
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 09, 2015, 05:48:31 PM
Another important army base has fallen to the rebels.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/moderate-rebels-take-key-southern-base-in-syria-dealing-blow-to-assad/2015/06/09/9d6ff9c2-0ea5-11e5-a0fe-dccfea4653ee_story.html
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 10, 2015, 10:34:17 AM
Quote from: mongers on February 15, 2015, 04:44:06 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on February 15, 2015, 03:26:03 PM
Wonder what will happen if this turns out to be true?  :hmm:
....

Nothing at all?

Russia will deny.  We have no secret troops in Syria.  They are all in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 10, 2015, 10:35:41 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on May 13, 2015, 04:02:09 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 13, 2015, 12:54:34 AM
Tons of evidence regarding Assad's atrocities have been smuggled out of Syria

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/12/syria-truth-smugglers-bashar-al-assad-war-crimes

and still he's preferable over the ISIS-types

If Assad falls it will simplify the situation on the ground.  As long as he hangs around, the effort to coordinate vs. ISIS will be hampered by the perception that it benefits Assad.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Queequeg on June 10, 2015, 10:39:31 AM
For America maybe.  Sunnis will still be less likely to support western Syrian ethnic minorities against any type of Sunni, though thankfully Erdogan might be out. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on June 10, 2015, 12:00:49 PM
QuoteOn Saturday, a Syrian opposition group, the al-Furqan Brigades, published footage of an Iranian officer killed in battle. Opposition news website Zaman al-Wasl identified the man as Haj Abbas Abdullahi, one of Iran's most decorated snipers and a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.

A veteran of the Iran-Iraq war fighting in Syria? Let the poor guy retire already!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on June 10, 2015, 12:02:23 PM
Well I suppose he did in a way. RIP
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 10, 2015, 12:51:08 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 10, 2015, 10:35:41 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on May 13, 2015, 04:02:09 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 13, 2015, 12:54:34 AM
Tons of evidence regarding Assad's atrocities have been smuggled out of Syria

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/12/syria-truth-smugglers-bashar-al-assad-war-crimes

and still he's preferable over the ISIS-types

If Assad falls it will simplify the situation on the ground.  As long as he hangs around, the effort to coordinate vs. ISIS will be hampered by the perception that it benefits Assad.

as long as countries like Saudistan are around ISIS is not going to vanish
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on June 10, 2015, 01:52:44 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 13, 2015, 12:54:34 AM
Tons of evidence regarding Assad's atrocities have been smuggled out of Syria

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/12/syria-truth-smugglers-bashar-al-assad-war-crimes

How about the atrocities of ISIS? I'd rather Assad in there than Syria falling to ISIS control. Face it, Syria is not going to become any kind of Muslim democracy or some kind of moderate place like Tunisia. The best chance for it now is probably for Assad to prevail against the radical forces against him.

Turkey was supporting the rebels against Assad, sending weapons and allowing fighters to go in. Now many of those weapons and fighters are with ISIS. I wonder if Turkey feels they made a big mistake in pushing to overthrow Assad? For that matter, what is the US policy? We want Assad out but what takes his place? It'll make Libya look like a thriving democracy by comparison.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on June 10, 2015, 01:54:41 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 10, 2015, 12:51:08 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 10, 2015, 10:35:41 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on May 13, 2015, 04:02:09 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 13, 2015, 12:54:34 AM
Tons of evidence regarding Assad's atrocities have been smuggled out of Syria

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/12/syria-truth-smugglers-bashar-al-assad-war-crimes

and still he's preferable over the ISIS-types

If Assad falls it will simplify the situation on the ground.  As long as he hangs around, the effort to coordinate vs. ISIS will be hampered by the perception that it benefits Assad.

as long as countries like Saudistan are around ISIS is not going to vanish

Yep, lots of support from some Saudis but the government doesn't like ISIS being around. ISIS victorious in Iraq and Syria won't take too long to move on SA as one of their next conquests.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on June 10, 2015, 02:24:17 PM
Quote from: KRonn on June 10, 2015, 01:52:44 PM
I'd rather Assad in there than Syria falling to ISIS control.

I'll take option C, neither.



First U.S. fighter killed battling ISIS.

Quote

http://news.yahoo.com/american-fighting-kurds-killed-islamic-state-battle-175851993.html (http://news.yahoo.com/american-fighting-kurds-killed-islamic-state-battle-175851993.html)

IRBIL, Iraq (AP) — An American fighting with Kurdish forces against the Islamic State group in Syria has been killed in battle, authorities said Wednesday, likely the first U.S. citizen to die fighting alongside them against the extremists.
   
Keith Broomfield of Massachusetts died June 3 in a battle in the Syrian village of Qentere, which is near the border town of Kobani, said Nasser Haji, an official with a group of Kurdish fighters known as the YPG. He had joined the YPG on Feb. 24 under the nom de guerre Gelhat Raman, Haji said.

Haji did not elaborate on the circumstances of Broomfield's death, nor did he know the man's hometown.

State Department spokesman Jeff Rathke confirmed Bloomfield's death, but declined to provide any details about the circumstances. He said the U.S. was providing consular assistance to his family.

The fight against the Islamic State group has attracted dozens of Westerners, including a number of Iraq war veterans who have made their way back to the Middle East to join Kurdish fighters, who have been most successful against the extremist group.

Many are spurred on by Kurdish social media campaigners and a sense of duty rooted in the 2003 U.S.-led military invasion of Iraq. And while the U.S. and its coalition allies bomb the extremists from the air, Kurds say they hope more Westerners will join them on the ground to fight.

Previously, a British citizen, an Australian and a German woman have been killed fighting with the Kurds.

Backed by U.S.-led coalition airstrikes, Kurdish YPG fighters in Syria have successfully pushed back Islamic State group militants from Kobani and scores of nearby villages. More recently, they have closed in on the Islamic State-held town of Tal Abyad near the Turkish border. The town is the Islamic State group's main access point to Turkey from Raqqa, the group's de facto capital in Syria.







Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on June 10, 2015, 02:28:31 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 10, 2015, 10:35:41 AM
If Assad falls it will simplify the situation on the ground. 

And one less reason for Sunnis to join ISIS and al-Nusra.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 10, 2015, 03:28:42 PM
Quote from: citizen k on June 10, 2015, 02:28:31 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 10, 2015, 10:35:41 AM
If Assad falls it will simplify the situation on the ground. 

And one less reason for Sunnis to join ISIS and al-Nusra.

or maybe a good reason to join them if it's either of them that topple Assad.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on June 10, 2015, 03:38:01 PM
Of course if Assad does fall what happens to the Alawites? Really there is no good outcome.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 10, 2015, 03:40:27 PM
I expect Assad/the Alawites to hold out forever in their coastal enclave.  AFAIK they haven't lost any core Alawite territory yet.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on June 10, 2015, 03:54:59 PM
Can they secede to Lebanon?  :hmm:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on June 10, 2015, 03:58:45 PM
I guess the Alablacks are fucked as always.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on June 10, 2015, 04:12:53 PM
Quote from: The Brain on June 10, 2015, 03:58:45 PM
I guess the Alablacks are fucked as always.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fizquotes.com%2Fquotes-pictures%2Fquote-my-family-got-all-over-me-because-they-said-bush-is-only-for-the-rich-people-then-i-reminded-them-charles-barkley-12005.jpg&hash=5358a8cf64c287ad8b4a9f410b812104a245a996)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 10, 2015, 04:35:11 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on June 09, 2015, 05:48:31 PM
Another important army base has fallen to the rebels.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/moderate-rebels-take-key-southern-base-in-syria-dealing-blow-to-assad/2015/06/09/9d6ff9c2-0ea5-11e5-a0fe-dccfea4653ee_story.html

This is one is more significant. Deir Ezzor was just a matter of time, this one cuts off the Druze enclave on the Jordanian border from Damascus.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on June 10, 2015, 05:57:06 PM
Quote from: Valmy on June 10, 2015, 12:02:23 PM
Well I suppose he did in a way. RIP

He had only one day left on his contract.  :(
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Caliga on June 10, 2015, 05:59:42 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 10, 2015, 12:51:08 PM
as long as countries like Saudistan are around ISIS is not going to vanish
The Saudis have a history of allying with such groups and then annihilating them.  They did it back when Saudia Arabia was being formed.  They were allied with this wackadoo sect (forget the name) that was like a proto-ISIS, used them to help conquer what is now Saudi Arabia, and then turned on them and massacred their leaders.  Hopefully they do the same thing again. :)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Caliga on June 10, 2015, 06:01:29 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 10, 2015, 03:40:27 PM
I expect Assad/the Alawites to hold out forever in their coastal enclave.  AFAIK they haven't lost any core Alawite territory yet.
A year or so ago there was a rebel (believe it was the FSA) offensive into Alawite territory, but after initial gains it was beaten back.  I think as of right now Assad does hold the entirety of the coastal provinces, yeah.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on June 11, 2015, 02:44:41 AM
Quote from: Caliga on June 10, 2015, 05:59:42 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 10, 2015, 12:51:08 PM
as long as countries like Saudistan are around ISIS is not going to vanish
The Saudis have a history of allying with such groups and then annihilating them.  They did it back when Saudia Arabia was being formed.  They were allied with this wackadoo sect (forget the name) that was like a proto-ISIS, used them to help conquer what is now Saudi Arabia, and then turned on them and massacred their leaders.  Hopefully they do the same thing again. :)

The British?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 11, 2015, 05:21:26 AM
Quote from: Caliga on June 10, 2015, 05:59:42 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 10, 2015, 12:51:08 PM
as long as countries like Saudistan are around ISIS is not going to vanish
The Saudis have a history of allying with such groups and then annihilating them.  They did it back when Saudia Arabia was being formed.  They were allied with this wackadoo sect (forget the name) that was like a proto-ISIS, used them to help conquer what is now Saudi Arabia, and then turned on them and massacred their leaders.  Hopefully they do the same thing again. :)
then they quickly need to destroy themselves, given that they themselves are such a group
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 11, 2015, 06:11:54 PM
ISIS has blown the gas lines leading to Damascus and Homs.

The regime will no longer be able to produce enough electricity.

In fact it will not be able to produce nearly any. 90% of their power is produced by natural gas.

https://news.yahoo.com/blows-syria-gas-pipeline-serving-capital-monitor-171653865.html

http://wiki.openoil.net/index.php?title=Power_Generation_in_Syria
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on June 11, 2015, 06:20:09 PM
These are dark days for Syria, indeed.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Caliga on June 11, 2015, 06:20:10 PM
The sect I mentioned earlier was called Ikhwan.  Dissolved in 1930 after being defeated by Abdul Aziz ibn Saud and his British allies.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on June 11, 2015, 06:22:58 PM
I second the notion that Saudis are despicable in their own right, and it's a shame that we have to be allied to them.  If ISIS settled down and build a new country on their lands, I'm not sure that they're going to be that different from Saudi Arabia of today in a few decades.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 11, 2015, 06:39:32 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on June 11, 2015, 06:20:09 PM
These are dark days for Syria, indeed.

Indeed :(
Quote from: Syrian Observatory for Human Rights
more than 320,000 people have died in the ongoing Syrian civil war since March 2011, which includes at least 11,493 children, while more than 1,500,000 people are believed to have been wounded.

http://www.christianpost.com/news/syrian-civil-war-death-toll-climbs-over-320000-casualties-observatory-group-slams-international-communitys-silence-as-encouraging-bloodshed-140212/
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on June 11, 2015, 10:11:45 PM
Quote
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-josef-olmert/syria-is-a-fictionwelcome_b_7552702.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-josef-olmert/syria-is-a-fictionwelcome_b_7552702.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592)

The 52nd Brigade was the second best unit of the Assad army. An elite force, consisting of infantry, artillery and armored elements -- a well-resourced -trained -motivated Alawite unit. It was stationed around the town of Dara'a, in the southeast of Syria, close to the Syria-Jordan and Syria-Israel borders, controlling the southern roads to Damascus. This is a region whose population is mostly tribal Sunni Muslim and Druze. The brigade is no more, as after only eight hours of fighting, the 1st army of the rebels destroyed it, and in the process 400 Alawite soldiers were killed, with many more injured. This is a resounding defeat for the regime; one which leads to some important questions: What is happening with the once powerful Syrian army, built to be a strategic match to Israel's army? What are the implications for the Alawite community; and above all, how is Iran connected with all that?

The recent defeat is another link in the chain of regime defeats anticipated, analyzed and described in this blog. That in itself is not new. But what is new is the easiness with which such an elite unit, considered one of Assad's last resorts, crumbled so quickly and so disgracefully to rebel forces which are under-staffed, as well as far less trained and not well provided for. The answer is that what is happening these days is a reflection of a new strategy adopted by the regime which is based mainly on the increasing predicament of the Alawite community. This community of human resources are fast dwindling, as tens of thousands out of a community of three million people were already killed, and counting. Intolerable situation for a community and army which is almost exclusively based on Alawite recruits.

The result is a conscious decision by the regime to give up on the outlying regions in the northwest, northeast and south Syria, and concentrate in the Alawite territory, but also Damascus and the mostly Sunni enclaves of Homs and Hamah. If the regime opted for the small Alawistan option -- to withdraw completely to the Alawite mountains with a corridor to the Mediterranean leading to the port of Tartus -- there could have been an actual ceasefire with the rebel groups. However, the large Alawistan option, which the regime opts for, including Damascus, will make it certain that the rebels will fight over the city. No Islamist group in Syria, whether ISIS, al-Nusra, the Fath army, or the Free Syria Army [FSA], will give up on Damascus, the capital of the Umayyad dynasty [661-750 A.D]. The rebels are divided between themselves and fighting each other, which surely something that the regime will be happy to see happening in the areas that are falling under their control, but they are united about one cherished desire: the need for an historic revenge exacted from the hated Nusayris [a derogatory term for the Alawites.]

A few days ago, Abu Muhammad Al Julani, the Amir of Al Nusra, made no bones in describing the fate awaiting the Alawites. He simply echoed the famous Fatwa of Ibn Tayimiyya [died 1329 A.D], which referred to the Alawites as being worse than the infidels, deserving death. So, the battle over Damascus, which is fast approaching and is inevitable, surely can be the last stand of the entire Alawite community, which has never viewed Damascus as an important place. Is this an Assad-Alawite strategy, or that of his Iranian masters? Here is where Iran comes into the picture.

Put bluntly, Bashar Assad is no more the real ruler of what is, even nominally, under his control; no more than 20 percent of his territory. He is the messenger boy of the Iranian regime. His generals are subjected to the overall supreme orders of Kassem Suleimany, the chief commander of the Iranian Revolutionary guards, the actual High Commissioner of Syria. That is the sad truth for all those who still believe the rhetoric of the Assad regime. It is a fiction regime in a fiction state. Iran is now calling the shots, and that brings us back to the tragic end of the 52nd Brigade. It was an Iranian decision to remove the heavy armaments of the Brigade towards Damascus without battle, thus exposing the Alawite troops, deprived of their means of defense, to their inevitable fate. Hundreds of them were killed, many more injured, others imprisoned. The Alawite community cannot and will not be able to sustain this situation for too long. "Their" savior, Bashar Assad, is just a pawn on the drawing board of the Iranian planners. The Alawites fight for their life, the Iranians for the creation of the Sh'ite crescent. That is not the same.

Iran is sending troops, arms and many non-Iranian Shi'ite volunteers to Syria, alongside the inevitable huge financial investment. They are taking the initiative, and many in the West are misled to believe that they can still pull a victory in Syria as part their modern-day empire. That is the wrong assumption, as they conduct a losing battle, and they do it using a fallen dictator and at the expense of many Syrian Sunni Muslims, which the Iranians do not care about, but also too many Alawites, which they are supposed to care about. This policy will not last for long, and the Syrian province of the empire they dream about in Tehran will be lost amid an unprecedented bloodshed which will engulf also Iranians.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on June 11, 2015, 10:26:13 PM
That will be the sad thing when Assad finally collapses.  The Alawites are likely going to be butchered wholesale, and the rest of the world will do nothing about it.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 11, 2015, 11:07:06 PM
al-Nusra massacres at least 20 Druze :cry:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-33092902
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on June 12, 2015, 12:16:03 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on June 11, 2015, 10:26:13 PM
That will be the sad thing when Assad finally collapses.  The Alawites are likely going to be butchered wholesale, and the rest of the world will do nothing about it.

Oh I imagine that a lot of them will flee to other countries like the Maronites.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: PJL on June 12, 2015, 02:43:38 AM
Quote from: DGuller on June 11, 2015, 06:22:58 PM
I second the notion that Saudis are despicable in their own right, and it's a shame that we have to be allied to them.  If ISIS settled down and build a new country on their lands, I'm not sure that they're going to be that different from Saudi Arabia of today in a few decades.

Which is what I was saying earlier in this thread. Having looked at the history of Saudi Arabia over the last 300 years or so, to me ISIS looks like another one of those tribal /religious uprisings that always occur in the area.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 12, 2015, 04:12:29 AM
Quote from: PJL on June 12, 2015, 02:43:38 AM
Quote from: DGuller on June 11, 2015, 06:22:58 PM
I second the notion that Saudis are despicable in their own right, and it's a shame that we have to be allied to them.  If ISIS settled down and build a new country on their lands, I'm not sure that they're going to be that different from Saudi Arabia of today in a few decades.

Which is what I was saying earlier in this thread. Having looked at the history of Saudi Arabia over the last 300 years or so, to me ISIS looks like another one of those tribal /religious uprisings that always occur in the area.
But it's a transnational movement centered in Syria and Iraq
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: PJL on June 12, 2015, 05:57:04 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on June 12, 2015, 04:12:29 AM
Quote from: PJL on June 12, 2015, 02:43:38 AM
Quote from: DGuller on June 11, 2015, 06:22:58 PM
I second the notion that Saudis are despicable in their own right, and it's a shame that we have to be allied to them.  If ISIS settled down and build a new country on their lands, I'm not sure that they're going to be that different from Saudi Arabia of today in a few decades.

Which is what I was saying earlier in this thread. Having looked at the history of Saudi Arabia over the last 300 years or so, to me ISIS looks like another one of those tribal /religious uprisings that always occur in the area.
But it's a transnational movement centered in Syria and Iraq

Who said that the Saudis have stopped doing it? They've got their own country secure and are now exporting their revolution elsewhere.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 12, 2015, 06:08:27 AM
Maybe he should consider building a bomb with it to use upon his enemies?  :hmm:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/08/us-syria-nuclear-idUSKBN0OO1O920150608

Quote

IAEA studies Syrian request to switch to lower grade nuclear fuel
VIENNA

The U.N.'s nuclear agency is studying a request from Syria to help convert an atomic reactor near Damascus to use lower grade nuclear fuel which would be harder to use in bombs, its head said on Monday.

The reactor is currently running on highly-enriched uranium (HEU) and Syria wants the help of the International Atomic Energy Agency to use low-enriched uranium (LEU) and to ship the higher-grade material abroad, Yukiya Amano told reporters.

"We have received a request from Syria early this year to convert the HEU fuel to LEU fuel and to repatriate the HEU to the country of origin. We are now studying this request," Amano told reporters, without giving further details.
ADVERTISING

Uranium enriched to less than 5 percent of fissile purity is usually considered low-enriched, while an atomic bomb would usually be based on 90-percent enriched uranium.

Chinese-designed so-called MSNR reactors, such as the one at the Syrian site, normally run on about 1 kilogram of 90-percent enriched uranium, according to the IAEA - far less than what is needed for an atomic bomb.

Still, any loss or theft of highly enriched uranium, plutonium or other types of radioactive material is potentially serious as militants could try to use them to make a crude nuclear device or a "dirty bomb", experts say.

Syria has suffered under years of civil war and jihadist militants have brought swathes of its territory under their control.

In the IAEA's latest assessment on Syria, it said that a "physical inventory verification at the MNSR would be postponed until the security conditions had sufficiently improved."

The Syrian case has been on the agenda of the IAEA board's quarterly meetings for over six years.

The IAEA has long sought to visit a Syrian desert site where U.S. intelligence reports say a North Korean-designed reactor was being constructed to make plutonium for nuclear bombs, before Israel bombed it in 2007.

Syria has said the eastern site at Deir al-Zor was a conventional military base but the IAEA concluded in 2011 it was "very likely" to have been a reactor that should have been declared to anti-proliferation inspectors.

"I renew my call to Syria to cooperate fully with us in connection with unresolved issues related to the (Deir al-Zor)site and other locations," Amano said.

(Reporting By Shadia Nasralla; Editing by Angus MacSwan)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on June 12, 2015, 06:22:11 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on June 12, 2015, 06:08:27 AM
Maybe he should consider building a bomb with it to use upon his enemies?  :hmm:

Where do you suggest setting said bomb off?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on June 12, 2015, 08:35:07 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on June 12, 2015, 06:22:11 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on June 12, 2015, 06:08:27 AM
Maybe he should consider building a bomb with it to use upon his enemies?  :hmm:

Where do you suggest setting said bomb off?
Someplace controlled by the enemy.  I'm sure he'll be able to find a spot or two if he looks at the map for long enough.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on June 12, 2015, 08:45:52 AM
Destroying his own country's cities isn't going to help him win the war.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on June 12, 2015, 08:58:26 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on June 12, 2015, 08:45:52 AM
Destroying his own country's cities isn't going to help him win the war.

Heh it worked in the 1980s.  ;)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Hama_massacre
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on June 12, 2015, 08:59:17 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on June 12, 2015, 08:45:52 AM
Destroying his own country's cities isn't going to help him win the war.

But it might prevent the other side from winning.  And that's sort of like winning.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Kleves on June 12, 2015, 09:14:40 AM
Does he still have a bunch of chemical weapons he could use? I would guess that his stockpile of 'fucks given about American intervention' is getting lower every day.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on June 12, 2015, 09:18:54 AM
Quote from: Kleves on June 12, 2015, 09:14:40 AM
Does he still have a bunch of chemical weapons he could use? I would guess that his stockpile of 'fucks given about American intervention' is getting lower every day.

We are the least of his problems at this point.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on June 12, 2015, 10:01:58 AM
Quote from: Kleves on June 12, 2015, 09:14:40 AM
Does he still have a bunch of chemical weapons he could use? I would guess that his stockpile of 'fucks given about American intervention' is getting lower every day.

According to some stories he has been using chem weapons.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 12, 2015, 03:07:58 PM
Quote from: KRonn on June 12, 2015, 10:01:58 AM
Quote from: Kleves on June 12, 2015, 09:14:40 AM
Does he still have a bunch of chemical weapons he could use? I would guess that his stockpile of 'fucks given about American intervention' is getting lower every day.

According to some stories he has been using chem weapons.

not enough apparently
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on June 12, 2015, 06:52:15 PM
And probably not really all that effective in achieving their military goals anyway.  They're mostly just a terror weapon, and ISIS's own brand of terror has shown to be far more effective.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: LaCroix on June 12, 2015, 07:18:19 PM
assad should use chemical warfare against ISIS
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on June 14, 2015, 03:16:11 PM
Do I smell moderation?  A post- Assad Syria might not turn out to be as bad as the detractors of the revolution have predicted.

Quote
Syrian Nusra Front promises justice after shooting of Druze

BEIRUT (Reuters) - The al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front acknowledged on Saturday that its members were involved in the killing of Druze villagers in northwestern Syria this week, saying they had violated orders and would face justice.

Twenty Druze villagers were reportedly killed in the village of Qalb Loze in Idlib province on Wednesday when Nusra Front members opened fire in an incident that spiraled from their attempt to confiscate a house.

The Druze community, which is spread across the Levant, practices a religion viewed as heretical by the puritanical brand of Sunni Islamism espoused by al Qaeda and Islamic State, the two most powerful insurgent groups in Syria.

In a statement, the Nusra Front said it had received with "great sorrow" news of the incident in which "a number of Nusra Front members" had taken part without consulting their leaders.

All those involved would face trial in an Islamic court, it added. "Everyone involved in this incident will be presented to a sharia court and held to account for blood proven to have been spilt."

The statement was circulated on a Nusra Front-affiliated Twitter feed. It did not give a casualty toll or describe what had happened in "the incident".

The Nusra Front is part of an alliance of insurgent groups that has been gaining ground from President Bashar al-Assad in northwestern Syria.

The shootings have triggered statements of concern for the Druze in Syria, including in the south where insurgents including the Nusra Front and Islamic State have been trying to advance towards Sweida province, a Druze stronghold.

Lebanese Druze leaders allied to the Syrian government warned the community faced an existential threat. Some have called for them to be sent arms.

Walid Jumblatt, an anti-Assad Lebanese Druze politician, said, however, the incident was more "personal" - indicating he did not see it as sectarian - and must be resolved through political contacts with local and regional players.

The Nusra Front said it had sent delegations to the village to investigate the incident and to reassure the people that it happened without the leadership's knowledge and that they remained safe in areas held by Nusra Front.

The insurgents in southern Syria include groups that profess a secular outlook who say they want a diverse Syria that protects minority rights.



Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 14, 2015, 03:35:08 PM
Smells more like power politics to me.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on June 14, 2015, 06:31:00 PM
Quote from: citizen k on June 14, 2015, 03:16:11 PM
Do I smell moderation?  A post- Assad Syria might not turn out to be as bad as the detractors of the revolution have predicted.

Except that Nusra, and any other "moderates" will inevitably be overrun and co-opted by ISIS...who will slaughter everybody.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 15, 2015, 05:54:42 PM
Israel may intervene to prevent genocide of the Druze.

http://www.inquisitr.com/2174230/safe-zone-israel-weighs-syrian-intervention-to-prevent-druze-genocide/
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 16, 2015, 05:46:50 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 14, 2015, 03:35:08 PM
Smells more like power politics to me.

Bingo.
There is some complex dance going on with the Druze in Lebanon.  Jumblatt does not want to attack Hezbollah directly, but probably would be happy to see their position weaken.  Somewhat.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 16, 2015, 05:53:04 PM
I was mostly thinking about the special position of the Druze in Israel, and the possibility that too many Druze dead in Syria could put whatever raghead faction does the killing in conflict with the IDF.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 30, 2015, 06:52:13 PM
Interesting look at Assad's propaganda campaign and its aims.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/30/assad-goes-on-spinning-as-syria-burns/

Quote

Assad Goes on Spinning as Syria Burns

As the country collapses, state media remains bizarrely upbeat. But there's a logic to the madness.
By Abigail Fielding-Smith
June 30, 2015 - 12:20 pm

This is the second in a series of reports adapted from the Legatum Institute's "Beyond Propaganda" program.

On May 9, 2015, the Syrian Arab News Agency website carried the following headlines on its home page:


"Homs Clock ticks again, declaring the return of life to the Old City";

"Army foils terrorist attack in Daraa";

"Mikdad: Legendary struggle of Syria is an outcome of its people's achievements";

"Syria wins gold medal in the high jump in Moscow Open Cup."

But reality was far less rosy than the headlines suggested. In the preceding weeks, rebels had captured a provincial capital, the Syrian pound had plummeted in value, and cracks had appeared within the highest echelons of the security establishment.

At first glance, the SANA headlines seem like the stereotypical behavior of an authoritarian government (and indeed of a few liberal-democratic ones), trying to hoodwink people into believing the regime is stronger and more competent than it actually is. On closer inspection, however, this does not seem adequate motivation.

Syrian citizens have access to a range of websites and satellite channels offering a portrait of the country different than SANA's. Moreover, they know things are going badly in the fighting when soldiers from their town or village do not come home. Indeed, President Bashar al-Assad himself acknowledged military "setbacks" in a public address on May 6, 2015.

If simple persuasion or indoctrination is not the aim, what is the function of these slickly produced state news items, whose production values suggest a surprising degree of financial commitment when the government is running out of money? After more than four years of a devastating war of attrition, there cannot be many people even inside the fortress of Damascus who look around them and see the Syria depicted on state news — a land where the army is always "thwarting" terrorists and the citizens are at leisure to enjoy bicycling championships. So what sort of complex game of signals is the Syrian regime and its population involved in?

To begin to understand Assad's use of propaganda, we need to go back to the rule of his father, Hafez al-Assad, who seized power in 1970 after a series of destabilizing internal coups and filled the top levels of the security establishment with trusted allies. On the face of it, Hafez's position was precarious: He was a rural upstart from the minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiism in a majority Sunni Muslim country. Yet through the secular ideology of Baathism (a hodgepodge of Arab nationalism and socialism) and ruthless suppression of dissent, he managed to fashion the Syrian state in his image.

Legitimacy was derived from Soviet-backed macro-projects, dam building, and irrigation. But ministries and parliament were ultimately irrelevant: The state was inseparable from the ubiquitously represented person of Hafez. Outside the presidential household, the official discourse of Baathism and hyperbolic praise for the leader was all-permeating, and the penalties for violating it high.

Hafez is notorious for brutally crushing an uprising of the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood in 1982, in which thousands of people were killed and the city of Hama flattened. But the fear he engendered spread far beyond that event, through a Stasi-style system which encouraged citizens to inform on each other's behavior to the intelligence services.

"From the moment you leave your house, you ask, what does the regime want?" a Syrian told Lisa Wedeen, professor of political science at the University of Chicago and a Middle East specialist. "People repeat what the regime says. The struggle becomes who can praise the government more.... after 10 years, it becomes its own language. Everyone knows who knows the language better and who is willing to use it. Those who are self-respecting say less, but for everyone the language is like a seat belt."

As Wedeen notes, the claims that this "language" required people to uphold were palpably absurd — that Hafez was the country's premier pharmacist, for example. And unlike O'Brien, the torturer in George Orwell's 1984 who breaks Winston Smith until he truly believes that two plus two equals five, the regime did not seem interested in creating genuine conviction, merely the external appearance of it — what Wedeen calls "a politics of 'as if.'" Disbelief in the official pieties was registered in jokes and even some slyly encoded commentaries that made it into the public sphere.

After deliberating on why the regime would insist on the external trappings of loyalty, Wedeen concludes that the falseness is itself the point. "The regime's power resides in its ability to impose national fictions and to make people say and do what they otherwise would not," she writes. "This obedience makes people complicit; it entangles them in self-enforcing relations of domination, thereby making it hard for participants to see themselves simply as victims of the state's caprices."

When Bashar came to power after his father's death in 2000, he was seen as a breath of fresh air. He helped introduce the Internet to Syria and presided over some limited but nonetheless tangible reforms. There was a little more tolerance of grumbling, so long as it did not touch on the president himself, and a little less heavy-handedness. "We used to get sent to prison for writing things that caused offense," said one journalist in 2005. "Now we only have to pay a fine!"

Bashar himself seemed to be popular, greeted with fervent applause wherever he went, though the politics of "as if" make it hard to tell how deeply rooted this popularity was. The urban middle classes, at least, felt that he represented their aspirations for Syria. One woman, shopping in a Damascus mall in 2011, shook her head in wonder as she recalled the privations of the pre-reform economy: "There were no diapers, no milk, no bananas. We only had oranges and apples!"

Despite the slight relaxation, the logic underpinning the regime was the same, and when the rules of its game were violated, it responded with disproportionate ferocity. When, in March 2011, a group of teenagers graffitied a wall in the southern town of Deraa with slogans from the Egyptian revolution, the security services arrested and later tortured them. Protests erupted at the teenagers' treatment, quickly spreading to other parts of the country. Increasingly, the protesters focused on the symbols of the regime. In video after video uploaded to YouTube, posters of Bashar were torched and statues of Hafez hacked down in a campaign of visual "cleansing" ("hamlat al-tathir"). The pact of the "as if," on which the power of the Syrian regime rested, was being repudiated.

It was nearly two weeks into the escalating cycle of protests and crackdowns before Assad made a public statement on the unrest. Optimists hoped that this young, Western-educated president would offer historic concessions, an inclusive vision to save the country. In the event, however, Assad's address to parliament on March 30, 2011, merely repeated the familiar rhetoric about reform and Syria being the subject of an international "conspiracy," claiming the protests and crackdowns had been manipulated in order to undermine Syria's role as a "resistance" state. The parliamentarians applauded him, but even non-opposition Syrians were shocked at how little the speech offered. One Christian businessman told the Guardian that the speech had left the Baath Party "empty-handed" as it faced the Syrian people.

Apart from some initial conciliatory gestures, Assad did not invest much political capital in trying to win back the rural Sunni majority: His speeches seem to have been primarily aimed at bolstering his supporters — Alawites, Shiites, Christians, and the urban middle classes. Joshua Landis, a historian of Syria, argues that given the decades of repression that had preceded it, Assad was bound to act this way: "If Assad had done what he should have done," i.e. offer meaningful concessions, "there would have been revenge, his cronies would have been hung from the wall," he said. "So many people know who killed their brothers and who tortured them, and they would all want justice."



Right from the start, both sides were involved in a war of perception. The opposition wanted to create the impression that the momentum was with them and that the regime was reverting to barbarism in response, while the regime needed to make people feel that the unrest was contained and its response was proportionate and responsible.

To impose his narrative, Assad could not simply prevent people from seeing videos of protests and crackdowns recorded by activists: Satellite dishes carrying foreign news channels were everywhere. In any case, the videos were all over the Internet. But while he could not censor, Assad could cause people to question the veracity of the opposition's material. To achieve this, pro-Assad media described foreign news channels as part of a "conspiracy" against the regime. A cartoon, pinned to the wall of the Syrian border-control office at the crossing point from Lebanon, depicted Syria as a dove of peace surrounded by guns marked "Al Jazeera," "Al Arabiya," and "France 24." In September 2011, the pro-government Addounia TV station even claimed that Qatar had built life-sized replicas of the main squares of Syria's cities in order to stage protests there, which were then filmed by French, American, and Israeli directors. As a Syrian journalist quoted in the Financial Times explained, the aim of such outlandish claims was not so much to convince people that they were true as to pollute the epistemological landscape. "The aim is to confuse people," the journalist said.

"It is not even necessary for people to believe it, just as long as it makes them confused and unsure about what is really going on."

Assad's confusion strategy was helped by the fact that pan-Arab channels were indeed owned by the elites of gulf countries who eventually became openly committed to the overthrow of his regime. It has also helped that elements of the opposition have undoubtedly circulated false claims at various points to bolster their narrative. Post-uprising Syria seems a good illustration of the theory that the availability of large quantities of information can actually help a regime stay in power, provided that the information is unreliable.

This logic has also helped the regime internationally. In interviews with the international media, Assad has unequivocally denied using either chemical weapons or barrel bombs against his own people. So firm are his denials, and so polarized the international media landscape in which they occur, that credible evidence implicating the regime put forward by human rights organizations ends up becoming so much more noise in the din.

Few have done more to amplify that din than Assad's allies in Moscow. When, for example, the world was first digesting news of what appeared to be a chemical weapons attack in the Damascus suburb of Ghouta in August 2013, RT (a Russian state-funded TV network) ran a feature suggesting that the YouTube videos of the victims were fabricated in advance because their date stamp was one day before the attack was supposed to have occurred. As was quickly pointed out, YouTube videos are stamped with California time, ten hours behind Damascus.

Back home, as the civil war has continued, the regime's domestic priority has been to convince its forces to fight. The army is thought to have been reduced by half following mass desertions and casualties, and the regime has relied heavily on irregular forces, largely from the Alawite community, supplemented by Shiite fighters from Lebanon and Iraq. The regime has traditionally abjured sectarian discourse in its official channels, yet at the same time, its foot soldiers depend on the sense of community and the perception of a shared threat that sectarian identity creates. By late 2013, evidence of this sectarian mobilization was all over Damascus: The flag of the Lebanese Shiite militia was hoisted over a vanquished suburb, and pendants depicting the sword of Shiite martyr Ali with Assad's face superimposed on the hilt were on sale in the souqs.

Yet even as the regime was outsourcing vital state security functions to sectarian militias, "Sunni" and "Alawite" remained taboo words in the official media, the well-known reality (in this case of sectarianism) once again being ignored. The usefulness of this kind of coverage to the regime is that it signals the ongoing presence of the state. It may be fear of getting massacred by Islamist gunmen that prompts Alawites to fight, but they need to feel that what they are fighting for is a state, not a sectarian warlord: A long-running sectarian war can only end badly for the minority sect.

And so, even as the coercive power that allowed the regime to impose its version of reality frays and the state itself withers, official media goes on in the traditional style, not out of denial but as an evocation of the fictions that bound the country together for so long.

In Egypt, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the former army chief voted president after ousting the country's democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohammed Morsi, is in a very different position than Assad. The state has deeper roots in Egypt than in Syria, institutions have some actual power, the country is much more religiously homogenous, and Sisi himself enjoys significant public support. But the power of crowds over presidents has been tasted, and anyone ruling over 80 million people with an aid-dependent budget and an unstable relationship with other centers of power within the state needs to keep a close eye on the people's mood. As in Syria, stagecraft has played an important role.

The coup itself was spectacularly well-scripted, with Sisi making his televised announcement flanked by liberal leader Mohamed ElBaradei, the sheikh of Al-Azhar University, the Coptic pope, and youth activists. Having the air force trail heart shapes in the sky was a detail some Hollywood directors might have considered too much, but it seemed to go down well.

For all the professionalism of the pageant, there is something strangely studied and derivative about Sisi's public image. He has implicitly compared himself to Gamal Abdel Nasser, the iconic army officer whose leadership saw Egypt's influence peak. It is an identification his supporters have taken up enthusiastically in a million memes and posters of the two men side by side. Yet, as various commentators have pointed out, there is nothing particularly Nasserist about Sisi's policies, which so far seem to echo the economic neo-liberalism of Hosni Mubarak rather than the defiant socialism of the earlier leader.

The classic strongman signals do not only come from Sisi's association with Nasser. Shortly after the July 2013 coup, security forces violently dispersed pro-Muslim Brotherhood protesters in Cairo, killing hundreds. Since the ousting of Morsi and particularly since Sisi was voted president in June 2014, a number of laws have been passed shutting down space for dissent in the name of fighting terror; the Muslim Brotherhood has been outlawed, protests banned, and media freedoms restricted.

Nonetheless, no ruler's head lies easy in today's Middle East. Mekameleen TV, a pro-Brotherhood satellite channel based in Turkey, has been broadcasting what it claims are leaked recordings of Sisi's private conversations, causing him huge political embarrassment. His pitch to the Egyptian people was stability, but the war on terror is not going well — hundreds of policemen have been killed by a Sinai-based insurgency since the ousting of Morsi. The economy is improving but still critically dependent on Gulf handouts. In this context, some see Sisi's strongman behavior as a simulacrum of strength rather than evidence of it. "National unity to the point of xenophobia, cult of personality — they are the classical leitmotifs for regimes that are not strong but feel themselves to be brittle," says Professor Andrea Teti of Aberdeen University.

As Egypt commentator Sarah Carr points out, four years of instability have created an audience eager to believe in the performance. The army's narrative of recent events has stuck, she writes, and it is not simply because of its undoubted influence over the media: "People themselves want — seemingly need — to believe it."

The violent tumult of the post-Arab Spring environment and the associated rise of border-spanning sectarian identities have shown quite how much state authority is a matter of performance, symbol, and spectacle in parts of the Middle East.

There has always been a touch of staginess to the Middle Eastern state. As Nazih Ayubi points out, a preponderance of flags and uniforms can be read as an indicator of weakness rather than strength. In the case of Assad's Syria, the state is more present in the eagle motifs which are supposed to represent it than in most people's lived reality. SANA's plodding stories cloak the charred ruins of cities with the familiar discourse of the Baathist state, and with the options as they are in today's Middle East, it is perhaps not surprising that some people continue to act "as if" they believe in it. Sometimes even a fictional state is preferable to the alternative.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on July 01, 2015, 04:08:41 AM
Front page story by the WSJ.

If they use these on a large scale, can Obama just shrug and let it continue? Will Edrogan just stand by? What about the rest of the local players? 
http://www.wsj.com/articles/assad-chemical-threat-mounts-1435535977

QuoteAssad Chemical Threat Mounts
U.S. officials see strong possibility of chemical attacks if rebels threaten Syrian regime strongholds

By Adam Entous
June 28, 2015 8:32 p.m. ET
101 COMMENTS

U.S. intelligence agencies believe there is a strong possibility the Assad regime will use chemical weapons on a large scale as part of a last-ditch effort to protect key Syrian government strongholds if Islamist fighters and other rebels try to overrun them, U.S. officials said.

Analysts and policy makers have been poring over all available intelligence hoping to determine what types of chemical weapons the regime might be able to deploy and what event or events might trigger their use, according to officials briefed on the matter.

Last year, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad let international inspectors oversee the removal of what President Barack Obama called the regime's most deadly chemical weapons. The deal averted U.S. airstrikes that would have come in retaliation for an Aug. 21, 2013, sarin-gas attack that killed more than 1,400 people.

Since then, the U.S. officials said, the Assad regime has developed and deployed a new type of chemical bomb filled with chlorine, which Mr. Assad could now decide to use on a larger scale in key areas. U.S. officials also suspect the regime may have squirreled away at least a small reserve of the chemical precursors needed to make nerve agents sarin or VX. Use of those chemicals would raise greater international concerns because they are more deadly than chlorine and were supposed to have been eliminated.

The intelligence is "being taken very seriously because he's getting desperate" and because of doubts within the U.S. intelligence community that Mr. Assad gave up all of his deadliest chemical weapons, a senior U.S. official said.

Syrian officials in Damascus and New York didn't respond to repeated requests for comment. The Syrian regime has denied using chemical weapons of any kind, disputing allegations made by the U.S. and other Western governments.

Any large-scale use of chemical weapons would exacerbate the dilemma the Syria conflict poses for the Obama administration. Mr. Obama has long called for Mr. Assad to step down, given his crackdown on opposition groups and the brutality of what became an all-encompassing civil war.

But U.S. officials say they don't want his departure to create a security vacuum in areas controlled by the regime, allowing Sunni militants affiliated with Islamic State or the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front to seize more territory. The U.S. officials are concerned that chemical weapons could fall into militants' hands.

A new intelligence analysis suggests Mr. Assad could use those chemicals as a weapon of last resort to protect key installations, or if the regime felt it had no other way to defend the core territory of its most reliable supporters, the Alawites.

The analysis underlines what U.S. officials describe as growing signs of the Assad regime's desperation on the battlefield.

Islamic State militants and competing rebel forces, some aligned with al Qaeda and others backed by the Central Intelligence Agency, have been whittling away at territory controlled by the regime, leaving critical military bases and supply lines vulnerable, particularly in the country's northeast and south.

The regime's weakness was apparent during recent defeats in the northwest province of Idlib and the city of Palmyra. Regime forces withdrew quickly rather than fight a prolonged battle, according to rebel commanders and U.S. officials. The regime controls only about one-quarter of the country, with the rest held by Islamic State, various opposition rebels and Kurdish groups, according to monitoring groups and diplomats.

A worst-case scenario, the U.S. officials said, would be open conflict between hard-line Sunni fighters and Alawite-dominated communities near the coast, the traditional home of the religious minority to which Mr. Assad and many of his closest associates belong.

In August 2013, after the big sarin attack, Mr. Obama threatened to launch strikes against the regime, accusing it of crossing a "red line" he set against the use of banned chemical weapons. Instead, Russia brokered a deal under which Mr. Assad was supposed to give up his chemical arsenal, which gave Mr. Obama a diplomatic off-ramp to avoid military action.

U.S. intelligence agencies aren't sure what types of chemical weapons Mr. Assad could use. Earlier this year, the regime expanded its use of chlorine bombs, according to the U.S. officials. In recent weeks, the number of attacks with chlorine has declined, the officials said.

More worrying, U.S. officials said, would be the possibility that Mr. Assad could tap into a secret supply of sarin and VX. He might also be trying to reconstitute elements of his chemical-weapons program.

Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former commanding officer of the British army's chemical-weapons unit, said: "Even if the regime had only one ton of VX left, that would be enough to kill thousands of people."

U.S. intelligence agencies have a mixed record of predicting developments in Syria.

When Mr. Obama first called on Mr. Assad to step aside in 2012, U.S. intelligence agencies thought his days were numbered. But Mr. Assad's forces, aided by regime allies Iran, Hezbollah and Russia, managed to retake lost ground and shore up their hold on key areas.

This time, U.S. intelligence agencies aren't sure similar assistance would be able to save Mr. Assad, whose forces are encircled and under unprecedented strain.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on July 06, 2015, 05:19:09 AM
The post apocalyptic wasteland that is Aleppo.  :wacko:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fl9uND8O.jpg&hash=9bb09e78efcab5bb2c6d1f6c4c5dce92470377b6)
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F9Semlco.jpg&hash=30e2f31d87db1ef090546d987c9c1963f86f96b8)
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fm5wYBqq.jpg&hash=f9d45e7c287e66b0fc51d67a2c67b8aff790ba97)
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FdYiKtDa.jpg&hash=5e6dd9401a6703a51ef6f49ff2b40337159a7fe4)
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fp5HnwZO.jpg&hash=d4f8148b623518298ce1c62bc2a915591c8692e1)
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FN0RHqr3.jpg&hash=44e66915140a546883ef3662cb7dc853a2f29fc8)
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FKmWNqd6.jpg&hash=aff152d4f7af7134f3332800b18148a5b627e483)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on July 06, 2015, 05:39:04 AM
Freak bus accidents.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on July 06, 2015, 07:52:11 AM
They sure love piling up buses.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on July 06, 2015, 08:38:47 AM
Quote from: Valmy on July 06, 2015, 07:52:11 AM
They sure love piling up buses.
I read that the reason is to interrupt the line of sight of government snipers.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on September 16, 2015, 09:41:08 PM
As of August 5th, 330,000 have died in the Syrian Civil War according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. 111,624 Civilians among them. :(

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/syria-civil-war-civilian-deaths/405496/
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on September 24, 2015, 12:59:11 PM
Everybody wants to come to the party.

From a pro-Assad source:
http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/chinese-military-personnel-expected-to-arrive-in-syria/ (http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/chinese-military-personnel-expected-to-arrive-in-syria/)

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on September 24, 2015, 01:02:12 PM
Hey look if America doesn't get involved eventually others step in the vacuum to pick up the slack.

I wish them all better luck than we have had. I certainly have no stomach to expend American lives to support either side of that war.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on September 24, 2015, 01:08:12 PM
Wow, now the Chinese are going to be in Syria? Welcome to the party!  Enjoy!   ;)

Russia, China, Iran and the US all intervening in some fashion in Syria. All saying they're mostly going after the same group, but for different purposes and outcomes. What could possibly go wrong?  :hmm:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: 11B4V on September 24, 2015, 09:36:56 PM
The latest from America's #1 comedy channel. BTW, what's this DEFCON 3 show? It looks utterly delightful.

QuoteRussians, Syrians and Iranians setting up military coordination cell in Baghdad

EXCLUSIVE: Russian, Syrian and Iranian military commanders have set up a coordination cell in Baghdad in recent days to try to begin working with Iranian-backed Shia militias fighting the Islamic State, Fox News has learned.

Western intelligence sources say the coordination cell includes low-level Russian generals. U.S. officials say it is not clear whether the Iraqi government is involved at the moment.

Describing the arrival of Russian military personnel in Baghdad, one senior U.S. official said, "They are popping up everywhere."

The Russians already have been building up their military presence in Syria, a subject expected to factor prominently in a planned meeting between President Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin in New York Monday on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly.

While the U.S. also is fighting the Islamic State, the Obama administration has voiced concern that Russia's involvement, at least in Syria, could have a destabilizing effect.

Moscow, though, has fostered ties with the governments in both Syria and Iraq. In May, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi flew to Moscow for an official visit to discuss potential Russian arms transfers and shared intelligence capability, as well as the enhancement of security and military capabilities, according to a statement by the Iraqi prime minister's office at the time.


Meanwhile, a U.S. official described to Fox News how, over the weekend, the Russians were able to move 24 attack jets into Syria undetected.

The Russian military flew 12 Sukhoi Su-25 "Frogfoot" and a dozen Sukhoi Su-24 "Fencer" attack aircraft in "tight formations" under the "steady stream" of the large Russian An-124 cargo planes that have been ferrying supplies from bases in Russia through Iran before traveling on to Syria, the official said.

The large cargo planes appeared as "a big blip" on radar, but flying beneath them were "tight formations" of the smaller Russian fighter jets that used jamming pods and switched off their IFF, which would identify the aircraft to radar.

The large Russian cargo planes have the capability to fly directly from Russia to Syria, but the smaller attack aircraft do not.

"The Russian jets did not have the legs to make it directly from Russia to Syria, and needed a base to refuel," said the official, who spoke to Fox News under the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to disclose sensitive information.

According to the Aviationist, the Russian cargo planes and fighter jets landed at an airbase in Hamadan, Iran, roughly halfway between Baghdad and Tehran on Sept 18-19.

Fox News also has learned from U.S. military sources that the Russians have begun flying some of the Sukhoi fighter and attack jets from Bassel al-Assad airport, in Latakia, now a Russian forward operating base along the Mediterranean.

The planes are not dropping bombs or conducting attack missions, but just flying around near the base, according to one official. The official also confirmed that Russian destroyers are in position off the Mediterranean coast.

On Thursday, State Department spokesman John Kirby denied a U.S. intelligence failure led to U.S. officials being caught unaware of the two dozen Russian warplanes arriving in Syria.

"I can tell you that we've been watching this very, very closely ... and we have not been ignorant of what the Russians have been doing," said Kirby.

Asked Thursday about Russia's military involvement in Syria, Defense Secretary Ash Carter cautioned that without Russian support for a "political transition" in Damascus, it could "pour gasoline on the ISIL phenomenon rather than to lead to the defeat of ISIL."

But just two days ago, Secretary of State John Kerry said the Russian build-up was consistent with defensive measures.

"For the moment, it is the judgment of our military and most experts that the level and type represents basically force protection, a level of protection for their deployment to an airbase given the fact that it is in an area of conflict,'' Kerry said at the State Department Tuesday.

This week, former CIA director Gen. David Petraeus testified on Capitol Hill, warning that inaction in Syria carries risks for the United States.

"Russia's recent military escalation in Syria is a further reminder that when the U.S. does not take the initiative, others will fill the vacuum -- often in ways that are harmful to our interests," Petraeus said.




http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/09/24/russians-syrians-and-iranians-setting-up-military-coordination-cell-in-baghdad/?intcmp=hpbt1

My take; SO WHAT. Our policy mis-steps from Bush to Obama.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Grey Fox on September 25, 2015, 10:56:52 AM
A strong Russia is a good thing for World Security.

NATO needs a real opponent.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on September 25, 2015, 12:19:20 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on September 25, 2015, 10:56:52 AM
A strong Russia is a good thing for World Security.

NATO needs a real opponent.

Yes, brinkmanship is OSSUM.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 01, 2015, 05:53:08 PM
Looks like the Russians are going to finally inspire Obama to get off his ass and expand operations in Syria, but if the US and Russians are bombing at cross purposes is it really going to do anything but prolong the suffering and accelerate the country's descent into a post-apocalyptic wasteland?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/kerry-warns-of-grave-concerns-about-russias-intent-with-air-strikes-in-syria/2015/09/30/ccab60be-6792-11e5-9223-70cb36460919_story.html
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on October 01, 2015, 05:58:24 PM
Primarily Russian actions expose the wishful thinking that has been the Obama administration's 'policy' on Syria; just because you want Assad to be replaced by a western leaning liberal democracy, doesn't mean it's one of the 'real' choices in Syria.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: MadBurgerMaker on October 01, 2015, 06:01:40 PM
The Russians may have already lost an Su-25.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on October 01, 2015, 06:50:23 PM
OK vox pops from within a country rule by a dictator aren't to be trusted, but just seen this one on the news, interviewed in Tartus an elderly man said of Russia's involvement "If Satan came to Tartus to save us from those terrorists, then I'd welcome him"
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on October 01, 2015, 06:54:03 PM
Russians mentioning supporting the Kurds and some talk of arming them.  :hmm:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on October 01, 2015, 07:15:00 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 01, 2015, 06:54:03 PM
Russians mentioning supporting the Kurds and some talk of arming them.  :hmm:

No surprise there. Russians are bulling their way in with an "in your face" especially to the US but also to UK, French, Aussies and others who have been operating in the region for a while.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on October 01, 2015, 07:29:33 PM
Reuters reporting, Iranian ground units are arriving in Syria:

QuoteIran troops to join Syria war, Russia bombs group trained by CIA

BEIRUT/MOSCOW  | By Laila Bassam and Andrew Osborn

Hundreds of Iranian troops have arrived in Syria to join a major ground offensive in support of President Bashar al-Assad's government, Lebanese sources said on Thursday, a sign the civil war is turning still more regional and global in scope.

Russian warplanes, in a second day of strikes, bombed a camp run by rebels trained by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, the group's commander said, putting Moscow and Washington on opposing sides in a Middle East conflict for the first time since the Cold War.

Senior U.S. and Russian officials spoke for just over an hour by secure video conference on Thursday, focussing on ways to keep air crews safe, the Pentagon said, as the two militaries carry out parallel campaigns with competing objectives.

"We made crystal clear that, at a minimum, the priority here should be the safe operation of the air crews over Syria," Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook said.

Two Lebanese sources told Reuters hundreds of Iranian troops had reached Syria in the past 10 days with weapons to mount a major ground offensive. They would also be backed by Assad's Lebanese Hezbollah allies and by Shi'ite militia fighters from Iraq, while Russia would provide air support.

"The vanguard of Iranian ground forces began arriving in Syria -soldiers and officers specifically to participate in this battle. They are not advisers ... we mean hundreds with equipment and weapons. They will be followed by more," one of the sources said.

So far, direct Iranian military support for Assad has come mostly in the form of military advisers. Iran has also mobilised Shi'ite militia fighters, including Iraqis and some Afghans, to fight alongside Syrian government forces.
....

Full article here:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/10/01/uk-mideast-crisis-syria-idUKKCN0RV3YH20151001 (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/10/01/uk-mideast-crisis-syria-idUKKCN0RV3YH20151001)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 01, 2015, 07:32:49 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 01, 2015, 07:29:33 PM
Reuters reporting, Iranian ground units are arriving in Syria:

QuoteIran troops to join Syria war, Russia bombs group trained by CIA

BEIRUT/MOSCOW  | By Laila Bassam and Andrew Osborn

Hundreds of Iranian troops have arrived in Syria to join a major ground offensive in support of President Bashar al-Assad's government, Lebanese sources said on Thursday, a sign the civil war is turning still more regional and global in scope.

Russian warplanes, in a second day of strikes, bombed a camp run by rebels trained by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, the group's commander said, putting Moscow and Washington on opposing sides in a Middle East conflict for the first time since the Cold War.

Senior U.S. and Russian officials spoke for just over an hour by secure video conference on Thursday, focussing on ways to keep air crews safe, the Pentagon said, as the two militaries carry out parallel campaigns with competing objectives.

"We made crystal clear that, at a minimum, the priority here should be the safe operation of the air crews over Syria," Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook said.

Two Lebanese sources told Reuters hundreds of Iranian troops had reached Syria in the past 10 days with weapons to mount a major ground offensive. They would also be backed by Assad's Lebanese Hezbollah allies and by Shi'ite militia fighters from Iraq, while Russia would provide air support.

"The vanguard of Iranian ground forces began arriving in Syria -soldiers and officers specifically to participate in this battle. They are not advisers ... we mean hundreds with equipment and weapons. They will be followed by more," one of the sources said.

So far, direct Iranian military support for Assad has come mostly in the form of military advisers. Iran has also mobilised Shi'ite militia fighters, including Iraqis and some Afghans, to fight alongside Syrian government forces.
....

Full article here:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/10/01/uk-mideast-crisis-syria-idUKKCN0RV3YH20151001 (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/10/01/uk-mideast-crisis-syria-idUKKCN0RV3YH20151001)

That kind of Iranian escalation is probably just going to whip up more outrage and support for the rebels by the Gulf States. Don't think it will work in the long run.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: 11B4V on October 01, 2015, 07:56:19 PM
What a shitfest.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Monoriu on October 01, 2015, 07:56:52 PM
So this is what the Arab Spring has come to. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on October 01, 2015, 08:28:01 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on October 01, 2015, 07:32:49 PM

That kind of Iranian escalation is probably just going to whip up more outrage and support for the rebels by the Gulf States. Don't think it will work in the long run.

I read something in the BBC on line that Syrian rebels have about 100k fighters against the Assad regime, not including ISIS. Also that the enmity that Assad has created with the ruthlessness and barbarity has created a situation where there really isn't likely to be any negotiated settlement that leaves Assad in power. So if true then the Iranians and Russkies have a lot of fighting to do and it's not going to be easy. That said, I'll reserve judgment since a while back when Iran and Hezbollah got involved they made some progress.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 01, 2015, 09:00:20 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 01, 2015, 05:58:24 PM
Primarily Russian actions expose the wishful thinking that has been the Obama administration's 'policy' on Syria; just because you want Assad to be replaced by a western leaning liberal democracy, doesn't mean it's one of the 'real' choices in Syria.

Perhaps we should emulate the British, and just not mention it.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 01, 2015, 09:07:37 PM
That would be a step in the right direction.  I see no material gain for the US and little in the way of moral gain.  It's like Lebanon in the 1980's.  If we try to intervene we'll just get burned.  The only right move is not to play.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Habbaku on October 01, 2015, 09:14:17 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 01, 2015, 07:56:52 PM
So this is what the Arab Spring has come to.

:rolleyes:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: alfred russel on October 01, 2015, 10:19:00 PM
So its Assad plus Kurds plus Russia plus Iran vs. ISIS and whatever else is out there?

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on October 01, 2015, 10:25:54 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on October 01, 2015, 10:19:00 PM
So its Assad plus Kurds plus Russia plus Iran vs. ISIS and whatever else is out there?

Could be, but I think it's best to put the Kurds further away from Assad, as it's more a marriage of convienence, as before IS the Kurds (YPG) had clashed with the Syrian army and force them out of some Kurdish areas.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 01, 2015, 10:50:37 PM
Wouldn't it be nice if Russia and Turkey crossed paths over this?  An established fascist country against a fascismifying country.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: alfred russel on October 01, 2015, 11:06:23 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 01, 2015, 10:50:37 PM
Wouldn't it be nice if Russia and Turkey crossed paths over this?  An established fascist country against a fascismifying country.

They already have historical animosity, plus rather serious misalignment over the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 02, 2015, 01:02:44 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 01, 2015, 10:50:37 PM
Wouldn't it be nice if Russia and Turkey crossed paths over this?  An established fascist country against a fascismifying country.
And a NATO ally, so I'd rather they not.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on October 02, 2015, 07:36:38 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 01, 2015, 09:07:37 PM
That would be a step in the right direction.  I see no material gain for the US and little in the way of moral gain.  It's like Lebanon in the 1980's.  If we try to intervene we'll just get burned.  The only right move is not to play.

Yep.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on October 02, 2015, 07:37:24 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 01, 2015, 10:50:37 PM
Wouldn't it be nice if Russia and Turkey crossed paths over this?  An established fascist country against a fascismifying country.

No that would be terrible but it would never happen. Erdogan would never fight his hero.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 02, 2015, 07:45:37 AM
Wouldn't it make sense for the US to now quietly and gradually pull out of the anti-ISIS bombing?

I mean Putin will bound to fight them if he wants to get Assad back. And if there is no risk of a US-Russia dogfight match or A-10s gatling gunning vacationing Russian soldiers, then it seems like a win-win situation for me: if Putin succeeds, and Assad is back in power the chaos is over, ISIS is mostly gone, and Putin can be proud about bossing over a brutal ethnic cleansing that would commence. And the western world could pose in moral superiority as much as it likes.
On the other hand, if Putin fails he will still cause losses and headache to ISIS and tie down Russian resources that could be more destructive elsewhere.

To me it seems Putin gave an awesome play to the West and it would be good to not discard it just for some short term internal PR gain.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 02, 2015, 02:28:28 PM
That would be cutting and running on the Kurds, the only friends we have in the neighborhood.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 02, 2015, 02:53:37 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 02, 2015, 02:28:28 PM
That would be cutting and running on the Kurds,

and not for the first time either.

The Kurds better get a real state out of all this.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 02, 2015, 03:00:11 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 02, 2015, 02:28:28 PM
That would be cutting and running on the Kurds, the only friends we have in the neighborhood.

Well except for that big NATO ally in the north, that little country full of Jews along the cost, that country with the Pyramids down south and all those gulf states we have bases in.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 02, 2015, 03:19:12 PM
I think the emphasis was on friends rather than allies.  We have a lot of unsavory allies in the region, but I'd say that only Kurds and Israelis would qualify as friends.  And out of those two, only Kurds would qualify as trustworthy friends.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 02, 2015, 03:32:00 PM
"The Kurds" are a pretty broad group and I'm not sure they're necessarily our friends. For instance, the PKK were commies.

Even assuming they can be reduced to those groups that have been working with the US in Iraq, that could easily be considered a marriage of convenience.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 02, 2015, 03:44:00 PM
I think there are caveats on the Kurds as there are on everyone else.  The State Department declared the PKK a terrorist group a while back.  Despite the animus towards Erdogan the US still does joint exercises with Turkey.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on October 05, 2015, 04:42:53 AM
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/05/turkey-says-russian-warplane-violated-airspace

QuoteTurkey says Russian warplane violated its airspace

Ankara lodges formal complaint with Russians after incident near Syrian border, in which Russian plane was intercepted by F-16 jets

Turkey says its military intercepted a Russian fighter plane that had violated the country's airspace while apparently flying a sortie over Syria – an incident that risked further inflaming tensions days after Russia's military intervention began.

Turkey's ministry of foreign affairs said two F-16 fighter jets intercepted the Russian plane while it was flying south of Hatay, a province that borders Syria, on Saturday.

Ankara summoned Russia's ambassador to the country and "strongly protested" about the violation. Turkey urged that there be no repeat of the incident and it was made clear that Russia would be blamed for any further escalation.

Turkey also lodged a formal protest with Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, and said it would consult with its Nato allies about the implications of the incident.

Richard Moore, the UK's ambassador to Turkey, said: "Russia's incursion into Turkish airspace is reckless and worrying. UK, and its other Nato allies, stand shoulder to shoulder with Turkey."

Russia began airstrikes in Syria last week in defence of its embattled dictator, Bashar al-Assad. The raids have primarily targeted opposition fighters battling to topple Assad while drawing closer to his stronghold of Latakia, as well as areas controlled by Islamist rebels and the al-Nusra Front, al-Qaida's wing in Syria.

Russia's defence ministry said its airforce had made 25 flights in Syria during the past 24 hours and hit nine Islamic State targets there.

Turkey opposes the Russian intervention. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's government has insisted on Assad's departure as a prelude to resolving the crisis, and has backed a range of rebel groups fighting to overthrow him.

"Assad has committed state terrorism, and unfortunately you find Russia and Iran defending [him]," Erdoğan was quoted by the Hürriyet newspaper as telling a crowd of supporters in Strasbourg, France, late on Sunday.

"Those countries that collaborate with the regime will account for it in history," he said.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on October 05, 2015, 09:26:50 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 02, 2015, 02:53:37 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 02, 2015, 02:28:28 PM
That would be cutting and running on the Kurds,

and not for the first time either.

The Kurds better get a real state out of all this.
I'm kind of thinking that a separate Kurdish state is now or going to be de facto. Part of the reasoning is since  Iraq is so allied to Iran, worsening divisions within Iraq. Kurdistan seems a bit of a poor step-sibling in the whole thing, not getting the weapons/supplies they need from the central government. Plus they're heavily fighting ISIS which would seem to also give them more impetus to go their own way.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 05, 2015, 10:20:05 AM
Quote from: Syt on October 05, 2015, 04:42:53 AM
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/05/turkey-says-russian-warplane-violated-airspace

QuoteTurkey says Russian warplane violated its airspace

Ankara lodges formal complaint with Russians after incident near Syrian border, in which Russian plane was intercepted by F-16 jets

Turkey says its military intercepted a Russian fighter plane that had violated the country's airspace while apparently flying a sortie over Syria – an incident that risked further inflaming tensions days after Russia's military intervention began.

Turkey's ministry of foreign affairs said two F-16 fighter jets intercepted the Russian plane while it was flying south of Hatay, a province that borders Syria, on Saturday.

Ankara summoned Russia's ambassador to the country and "strongly protested" about the violation. Turkey urged that there be no repeat of the incident and it was made clear that Russia would be blamed for any further escalation.

Turkey also lodged a formal protest with Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, and said it would consult with its Nato allies about the implications of the incident.

Richard Moore, the UK's ambassador to Turkey, said: "Russia's incursion into Turkish airspace is reckless and worrying. UK, and its other Nato allies, stand shoulder to shoulder with Turkey."

Russia began airstrikes in Syria last week in defence of its embattled dictator, Bashar al-Assad. The raids have primarily targeted opposition fighters battling to topple Assad while drawing closer to his stronghold of Latakia, as well as areas controlled by Islamist rebels and the al-Nusra Front, al-Qaida's wing in Syria.

Russia's defence ministry said its airforce had made 25 flights in Syria during the past 24 hours and hit nine Islamic State targets there.

Turkey opposes the Russian intervention. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's government has insisted on Assad's departure as a prelude to resolving the crisis, and has backed a range of rebel groups fighting to overthrow him.

"Assad has committed state terrorism, and unfortunately you find Russia and Iran defending [him]," Erdoğan was quoted by the Hürriyet newspaper as telling a crowd of supporters in Strasbourg, France, late on Sunday.

"Those countries that collaborate with the regime will account for it in history," he said.

Elections soon in Turkey, so why not Strasbourg with its "Citizen meeting against terrorism" (lots of Turks in Alsace probably thought it was still Germany back then  :D), where only PKK is mentioned, not Daesh, before going to Brussels for another round of talks with the "refugee" blackmail card to play vs the Europeans. Great. The Alevi counter-demonstration only had 1500 people vs 10 to 12 thousand people. Next round in Vienna or Berlin or did he go there before?
Islamo-nationalist frenzy according to the French press, even Le Monde (centre-left/champagne left) e.g comparing the fight against the PKK or Kurds it seems with Saladin vs the Crusaders, the conquest of Constantinople, or the Gallipoli campaign.

http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2015/10/04/a-strasbourg-l-appel-a-l-unite-turque-d-erdogan-devant-la-diaspora_4782282_3214.html (http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2015/10/04/a-strasbourg-l-appel-a-l-unite-turque-d-erdogan-devant-la-diaspora_4782282_3214.html)

PS: nice tidbit I just saw, sexes were segregated, men on one side, women on another, during the political meeting, in good AKP fashion, Allahu Akbar!

http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/monde/europe/erdogan-se-paie-un-meeting-electoral-a-strasbourg_1722301.html (http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/monde/europe/erdogan-se-paie-un-meeting-electoral-a-strasbourg_1722301.html)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 05, 2015, 11:59:43 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 02, 2015, 03:32:00 PM
"The Kurds" are a pretty broad group and I'm not sure they're necessarily our friends. For instance, the PKK were commies.

USA is fine with Commies now, now that Russia and China went corporatist.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 05, 2015, 12:07:09 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 05, 2015, 11:59:43 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 02, 2015, 03:32:00 PM
"The Kurds" are a pretty broad group and I'm not sure they're necessarily our friends. For instance, the PKK were commies.

USA is fine with Commies now, now that Russia and China went corporatist.

We haven't lifted the embargo against Cuba yet.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 05, 2015, 01:28:24 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on October 05, 2015, 10:20:05 AM
Quote from: Syt on October 05, 2015, 04:42:53 AM
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/05/turkey-says-russian-warplane-violated-airspace

QuoteTurkey says Russian warplane violated its airspace

Ankara lodges formal complaint with Russians after incident near Syrian border, in which Russian plane was intercepted by F-16 jets

Turkey says its military intercepted a Russian fighter plane that had violated the country's airspace while apparently flying a sortie over Syria – an incident that risked further inflaming tensions days after Russia's military intervention began.

Turkey's ministry of foreign affairs said two F-16 fighter jets intercepted the Russian plane while it was flying south of Hatay, a province that borders Syria, on Saturday.

Ankara summoned Russia's ambassador to the country and "strongly protested" about the violation. Turkey urged that there be no repeat of the incident and it was made clear that Russia would be blamed for any further escalation.

Turkey also lodged a formal protest with Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, and said it would consult with its Nato allies about the implications of the incident.

Richard Moore, the UK's ambassador to Turkey, said: "Russia's incursion into Turkish airspace is reckless and worrying. UK, and its other Nato allies, stand shoulder to shoulder with Turkey."

Russia began airstrikes in Syria last week in defence of its embattled dictator, Bashar al-Assad. The raids have primarily targeted opposition fighters battling to topple Assad while drawing closer to his stronghold of Latakia, as well as areas controlled by Islamist rebels and the al-Nusra Front, al-Qaida's wing in Syria.

Russia's defence ministry said its airforce had made 25 flights in Syria during the past 24 hours and hit nine Islamic State targets there.

Turkey opposes the Russian intervention. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's government has insisted on Assad's departure as a prelude to resolving the crisis, and has backed a range of rebel groups fighting to overthrow him.

"Assad has committed state terrorism, and unfortunately you find Russia and Iran defending [him]," Erdoğan was quoted by the Hürriyet newspaper as telling a crowd of supporters in Strasbourg, France, late on Sunday.

"Those countries that collaborate with the regime will account for it in history," he said.

Elections soon in Turkey, so why not Strasbourg with its "Citizen meeting against terrorism" (lots of Turks in Alsace probably thought it was still Germany back then  :D), where only PKK is mentioned, not Daesh, before going to Brussels for another round of talks with the "refugee" blackmail card to play vs the European. Great. The Alevi counter-demonstration only had 1500 people vs 10 to 12 thousand people. Next round in Vienna or Berlin or did he go there before?
Islamo-nationalist frenzy according to the French press, even Le Monde (center-left/champagne left) e.g comparing the fight against the PKK or Kurds it seems with Saladin vs the Crusaders, the conquest of Constantinople, or the Gallipoli campaign.

http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2015/10/04/a-strasbourg-l-appel-a-l-unite-turque-d-erdogan-devant-la-diaspora_4782282_3214.html (http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2015/10/04/a-strasbourg-l-appel-a-l-unite-turque-d-erdogan-devant-la-diaspora_4782282_3214.html)

PS: nice tidbit I just saw, sexes were segregated, men on one side, women on another, during the political meeting, in good AKP fashion, Allahu Akbar!

http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/monde/europe/erdogan-se-paie-un-meeting-electoral-a-strasbourg_1722301.html (http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/monde/europe/erdogan-se-paie-un-meeting-electoral-a-strasbourg_1722301.html)

frankly Erdogan shouldn't be allowed to do these pre-election meetings. Not in Europe.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 05, 2015, 01:30:19 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 05, 2015, 12:07:09 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 05, 2015, 11:59:43 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 02, 2015, 03:32:00 PM
"The Kurds" are a pretty broad group and I'm not sure they're necessarily our friends. For instance, the PKK were commies.

USA is fine with Commies now, now that Russia and China went corporatist.

We haven't lifted the embargo against Cuba yet.

The US still hasn't forgiven Cuba from expropriating its gangsters' hard-earned casinos.  :D
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on October 05, 2015, 01:49:08 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 05, 2015, 01:30:19 PM
The US still hasn't forgiven Cuba from expropriating its gangsters' hard-earned casinos.  :D

Some sins can never be washed away Malthus.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 05, 2015, 03:38:33 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 05, 2015, 11:59:43 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 02, 2015, 03:32:00 PM
"The Kurds" are a pretty broad group and I'm not sure they're necessarily our friends. For instance, the PKK were commies.

USA is fine with Commies now, now that Russia and China went corporatist.

The PKK has pretty much given up communism.  They were put on the terrorist watchlist after they gave up on that stupid ideology.  Probably to appease the Turks somehow.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 05, 2015, 03:40:56 PM
Quote from: Syt on October 05, 2015, 04:42:53 AM
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/05/turkey-says-russian-warplane-violated-airspace (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/05/turkey-says-russian-warplane-violated-airspace)

QuoteTurkey says Russian warplane violated its airspace

Ankara lodges formal complaint with Russians after incident near Syrian border, in which Russian plane was intercepted by F-16 jets

Turkey says its military intercepted a Russian fighter plane that had violated the country's airspace while apparently flying a sortie over Syria – an incident that risked further inflaming tensions days after Russia's military intervention began.

Turkey's ministry of foreign affairs said two F-16 fighter jets intercepted the Russian plane while it was flying south of Hatay, a province that borders Syria, on Saturday.

Ankara summoned Russia's ambassador to the country and "strongly protested" about the violation. Turkey urged that there be no repeat of the incident and it was made clear that Russia would be blamed for any further escalation.

Turkey also lodged a formal protest with Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, and said it would consult with its Nato allies about the implications of the incident.

Richard Moore, the UK's ambassador to Turkey, said: "Russia's incursion into Turkish airspace is reckless and worrying. UK, and its other Nato allies, stand shoulder to shoulder with Turkey."

Russia began airstrikes in Syria last week in defence of its embattled dictator, Bashar al-Assad. The raids have primarily targeted opposition fighters battling to topple Assad while drawing closer to his stronghold of Latakia, as well as areas controlled by Islamist rebels and the al-Nusra Front, al-Qaida's wing in Syria.

Russia's defence ministry said its airforce had made 25 flights in Syria during the past 24 hours and hit nine Islamic State targets there.

Turkey opposes the Russian intervention. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's government has insisted on Assad's departure as a prelude to resolving the crisis, and has backed a range of rebel groups fighting to overthrow him.

"Assad has committed state terrorism, and unfortunately you find Russia and Iran defending [him]," Erdoğan was quoted by the Hürriyet newspaper as telling a crowd of supporters in Strasbourg, France, late on Sunday.

"Those countries that collaborate with the regime will account for it in history," he said.

This is more serious.  Turkey is NATO and if sufficiently provoked could theoretically invoke article five of the treaty.  Pretty much all Western countries would be legally bound to fight the Russians.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on October 05, 2015, 03:46:20 PM
Saw some interviews with internal Syrian refugees, one said he's spoken to his cousin via whatsapp, who's still in the family village East of Raqqa, who said IS fighters have disappeared from the villages in the last few days, some people are now even daring to sell and smoke cigarettes.

Now I don't take this as evidence that Russian air strikes are having an impact, though other refugees welcomed them. Maybe ir 'confirms' some of what the Russian military spokesman said about Dash fleeing, but I'd take that with a big pinch of salt. Maybe it's a consequence of US air strikes or a combination of both.
Yet again perhaps it's just IS redeploying forces for another surprise attack somewhere else, as they've shown themselves capable of pulling off?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 05, 2015, 04:02:29 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 05, 2015, 03:46:20 PM
Saw some interviews with internal Syrian refugees, one said he's spoken to his cousin via whatsapp, who's still in the family village East of Raqqa, who said IS fighters have disappeared from the villages in the last few days, some people are now even daring to sell and smoke cigarettes.

Now I don't take this as evidence that Russian air strikes are having an impact, though other refugees welcomed them. Maybe ir 'confirms' some of what the Russian military spokesman said about Dash fleeing, but I'd take that with a big pinch of salt. Maybe it's a consequence of US air strikes or a combination of both.
Yet again perhaps it's just IS redeploying forces for another surprise attack somewhere else, as they've shown themselves capable of pulling off?

A reporter who travelled the length of the frontline said that there's far far far less foreign fighters attacking (the Kurdish front) compared to a few months back. It seems to be mainly locals manning the frontline now. Might mean something but one swallow doesn't make summmer and all that.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: viper37 on October 05, 2015, 06:14:59 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 05, 2015, 03:40:56 PM
This is more serious.  Turkey is NATO and if sufficiently provoked could theoretically invoke article five of the treaty.  Pretty much all Western countries would be legally bound to fight the Russians.
Russia is betting that even if it comes to that, the rest of NATO would find ways to refuse action, putting a dent in NATO (as in, who will be next?).
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: viper37 on October 05, 2015, 06:17:37 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 05, 2015, 03:46:20 PM
Saw some interviews with internal Syrian refugees, one said he's spoken to his cousin via whatsapp, who's still in the family village East of Raqqa, who said IS fighters have disappeared from the villages in the last few days, some people are now even daring to sell and smoke cigarettes.

Now I don't take this as evidence that Russian air strikes are having an impact, though other refugees welcomed them. Maybe ir 'confirms' some of what the Russian military spokesman said about Dash fleeing, but I'd take that with a big pinch of salt. Maybe it's a consequence of US air strikes or a combination of both.
Yet again perhaps it's just IS redeploying forces for another surprise attack somewhere else, as they've shown themselves capable of pulling off?
Most reports say the Russians are mostly striking against US backed rebels instead of ISIS.  And the US did make its plans public about intensifying airstrikes to help the Kurds advance.  So maybe they are simply regrouping, falling back to defensive lines they already prepared.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: alfred russel on October 05, 2015, 07:10:15 PM
Quote from: viper37 on October 05, 2015, 06:17:37 PM

Most reports say the Russians are mostly striking against US backed rebels instead of ISIS.

Holy shit. The brunt of a neo Soviet attack borne by just 5 guys. They are true heroes. :swiss:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 05, 2015, 07:47:30 PM
Quote from: viper37 on October 05, 2015, 06:14:59 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 05, 2015, 03:40:56 PM
This is more serious.  Turkey is NATO and if sufficiently provoked could theoretically invoke article five of the treaty.  Pretty much all Western countries would be legally bound to fight the Russians.
Russia is betting that even if it comes to that, the rest of NATO would find ways to refuse action, putting a dent in NATO (as in, who will be next?).

Yeah that's true.  Hell, Germany would probably refuse a call to arms if Russia attacked Germany

"They are just retaking land lost to Western Imperialism in 1989."
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 05, 2015, 07:54:29 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 05, 2015, 07:47:30 PM
Quote from: viper37 on October 05, 2015, 06:14:59 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 05, 2015, 03:40:56 PM
This is more serious.  Turkey is NATO and if sufficiently provoked could theoretically invoke article five of the treaty.  Pretty much all Western countries would be legally bound to fight the Russians.
Russia is betting that even if it comes to that, the rest of NATO would find ways to refuse action, putting a dent in NATO (as in, who will be next?).

Yeah that's true.  Hell, Germany would probably refuse a call to arms if Russia attacked Germany

"They are just retaking land lost to Western Imperialism in 1989."
:lmfao: :yes:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on October 05, 2015, 08:18:11 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 05, 2015, 07:47:30 PM
Yeah that's true.  Hell, Germany would probably refuse a call to arms if Russia attacked Germany

"They are just retaking land lost to Western Imperialism in 1989."

The truth. It hurts.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on October 06, 2015, 02:39:59 AM
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34450827

QuoteSyria conflict: Turkey summons Russian ambassador a second time

Turkey has again summoned the Russian ambassador after a second violation of its airspace by a Russian warplane operating in Syria in two days.

It did the same after the first violation on Saturday, after which two Turkish F-16 jets were scrambled.

Turkey said the second violation occurred on Sunday.

[...]



http://europe.newsweek.com/syrian-rebel-groups-appeal-regional-alliance-fight-russia-iran-334126

QuoteSyrian Rebel Groups Appeal For Regional Alliance to Fight Russia and Iran

Forty-one Syrian rebel groups have appealed to regional states to form a coalition against Russia and Iran, following their intervention in the country and continued support for Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime, according to a joint statement released on Monday seen by Reuters.

Last week, Russia began an airstrike campaign in Syria, supposedly targeting the militant group ISIS in the country. However, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov admitted on Thursday that Moscow was also targeting other "well-known groups" considered to be legitimate targets by the Assad regime. Lebanese sources told Reuters on Friday that hundreds of Shiite Iranian troops had also arrived in Syria to assist the Syrian army in its battle against insurgent groups.

The collective of rebel factions party to the joint statement include the umbrella group of the Free Syrian Army (which is backed by the United States), the Islamist Ahrar al-Sham (The Free Men of Syria) group and the Jaish al-Islam group that is part of the wider Islamic Front coalition fighting the Assad regime. The dozens of other rebel groups to sign the statement, which was sent to Reuters by Ahrar al-Sham, are yet to be disclosed.

Try Newsweek: subscription offers

The U.S. does not currently list Ahrar al-Sham or Jaish al-Islam as terrorist organizations. Radical jihadi groups the Islamic State (ISIS), which has been fighting the rebel groups in northern Syria, and the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front—both designated as terrorist organizations by the U.S.—were not party to the statement. Ahrar al-Sham and the Nusra Front are both members of the coalition that captured Idlib province from the Syrian army last month.

The militants said that regional cooperation was required to defeat "the Russian-Iranian alliance occupying Syria" but did not name the states that it wished to join such a coalition. The rebel groups also condemned Russian airstrikes they say have targeted civilians in north-western Syria.

"Russia jumped in to rescue the Assad regime after it was clinically dead, in order to prevent it from suffering a sweeping defeat," the statement said, according to regional publication Middle East Eye.

"Civilians have been directly targeted in a manner that reminds us of the scorched earth policy pursued by Russia in its past wars," it continued.

The groups added that Russia's intervention and "brutal occupation has cut the road to any political solution."

"This new reality makes it imperative that regional countries, and allies in particular, hasten to form a regional alliance in the face of the Russian-Iranian alliance of occupation."

Iran has long been a supporter of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, providing him with weapons and financial support against the rebel groups. It has also sent military advisers to train the Syrian army and hundreds of Iranian troops to fight alongside Assad's forces. Tehran uses its support of the Assad regime and Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah to boost its influence in the Levant region, serving as a bulwark to the regional influence of its Sunni rival, Saudi Arabia.

Despite the rebel groups not naming who they wish to join an alliance against Iran and Russia, a number of Sunni states have supported Syrian rebel groups during the fight to topple Assad throughout the Syrian civil war, including Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, as well as individual financiers from Kuwait. Rebels and anonymous officials told The Independent in May that Saudi Arabia was providing arms and funds to Islamist rebel groups in Syria with Turkey easing their passage to the insurgents.

Russia's intervention in the Syrian civil war, now in its fifth year, has also reignited the ire of other Sunni Islamist groups. Despite not signing the joint statement, the Nusra Front, one of the biggest jihadi groups in Syria, compared Russia's involvement to when Islamists battled Soviet occupying forces during the Afghanistan War in the 1980s.

A prominent jihadi cleric linked to the Nusra Front recalled Russia's war in Afghanistan on Friday, warning that Syria will become a "graveyard for invaders," the Associated Press reported.

"Oh Russian people, did you forget the Afghan quagmire? Do you want to enter a new quagmire? The people of the Levant will stand up to you," Abdullah al-Muhaysini, a Saudi militant based in Syria, said in a video statement.

On Thursday, Abu Hassan al-Kuwaiti, another influential figure within the group, issued a bounty worth three million Syrian pounds ($15,900) for the capture of a Russian soldier in the country.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 06, 2015, 07:23:41 AM
What the hell

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/nato-warns-russia-over-unacceptable-airspace-violations-n439151

QuoteRussia's violations of Turkish airspace appear to be deliberate, NATO's chief said Tuesday after the second such reported incident in as many days.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the incursions were "unacceptable" and called on Moscow to "avoid escalating tensions" with the U.S.-led alliance, adding: "Russia must deconflict its military activities in Syria."

He said that an initial assessment of the incidents indicated "that it doesn't look like an accident."

The United States and NATO denounced Russia over the incidents late Monday, raising the prospect of direct confrontation between the former Cold War adversaries.

Secretary of State John Kerry said it illustrated concerns about an escalated Syrian conflict.

"Had Turkey responded ... it could have resulted in a shootdown, and it is precisely the kind of thing we warned against," Kerry said.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 06, 2015, 08:11:07 AM
I remember the movie Threads started with people going about their daily lives vaguley listening and promptly ignoring news like these.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on October 07, 2015, 04:06:55 AM
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-volunteers-likely-to-fight-in-syria/537145.html

QuoteRussian Volunteers Likely to Fight in Syria

Russian volunteers who have honed their combat skills in Ukraine are likely to travel to Syria to fight alongside the forces of President Bashar Assad, Admiral Vladimir Komoyedov, the head of the Russian parliament's defense committee, said on Monday.

"It is likely that groups of Russian volunteers will appear in the ranks of the Syrian army as combat participants," Komoyedov told the Interfax-AVN news agency.

The Kremlin has said that Russia has no current plans to deploy ground troops to Syria and will confine itself to conducting airstrikes to support the Syrian army instead. It has not yet offered a view on the possibility of Russian volunteers or mercenaries fighting in Syria.

Komoyedov was commenting on unconfirmed media reports that some Russian volunteers who had previously fought alongside Kremlin-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine had been spotted fighting with the Syrian army.

"What attracts volunteers apart from ideas? Of course money most likely," said Komoyedov, a lawmaker with the Communist party.

Interfax-AVN quoted unnamed media reports as saying that such volunteers could make $50 per day.

Komoyedov spoke after Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of the Russian internal republic of Chechnya, told a Russian radio station on Friday he was ready to send Chechen forces to Syria to carry out "special operations" if President Vladimir Putin gave his blessing.

Komoyedov also raised the possibility that Russia's Black Sea Fleet could be used to blockade parts of the Syrian coastline if necessary or to shell Islamist groups on Syrian territory, though he said there was currently no need to use naval firepower because the extremists were too far inland.

I hear that Syria is a nice place for "vacations" this time of year. :rolleyes:


http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/07/us-mideast-crisis-syria-strikes-idUSKCN0S10BI20151007

QuoteSyrian army and Russian jets target rebels in western Syria

The Syrian army and allied militia carried out ground attacks on insurgent positions in Syria on Wednesday backed by Russian air strikes, in what appeared to be their first major coordinated assault since Moscow intervened last week, a monitor said.

Russia's air strikes hit northern parts of Hama province and nearby areas in Idlib province, targeting towns close to the main north-south highway that runs through major cities in western Syria, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

Ground attacks using heavy surface-to-surface missile bombardments targeted at least four insurgent positions in the area and there were heavy clashes on the ground, the head of the Observatory Rami Abdulrahman said.

Although Wednesday's combined assault marked a military escalation, it was not immediately clear whether there would be rapid gains in a conflict that has already dragged on more than four years.

"There is no information yet of any (government) advances on the ground, but the air strikes have hit vehicles and insurgent bases," Abdulrahman said.

A regional source familiar with the military situation in Syria said forces including Hezbollah fighters were taking part in the ground attack against four rebel-held areas.

Reuters reported last week that allies of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, including Iranians, were preparing a ground attack in Syria, aimed at recapturing territory lost by the government to rebels in rapid advances this year.

Abdulrahman, who tracks the conflict using sources in Syria, said the ground assault was being carried out by "regime forces" and their allies, with no immediate sign of Russian involvement on the ground.

Syrian state media and regional pro-government channels made no mention of new Russian strikes or the ground attacks on Wednesday.

Russia, a top ally of Assad, started air strikes in Syria a week ago, saying they were targeting hardline Islamic State militants.

But fighters on the ground and Western countries have said the Russian campaign is mainly focusing on other rebel groups that have seized government-held areas in the west, and is aimed at shoring up Assad rather than combating hardliners.

Russia's strikes on Wednesday targeted the towns of Kafr Zita, Kafr Nabudah, al-Sayyad and the village of al-Latamneh in Hama province and the towns of Khan Shaykhun and Alhbit in Idlib, the Observatory said.

Most of Idlib province is held by an insurgent alliance that includes al Qaeda's Syria wing Nusra Front and other Islamist factions.

Are there any numbers on how many Iranians and Hezbollah are in Syria? Articles variably claim "hundreds" or "thousands."
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 07, 2015, 08:13:21 AM
Russia hit ISIS with 26 sea launched cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34465425
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 08:17:17 AM
One wonders how Putin's Russia is going to be able to afford war in Syria plus war in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Monoriu on October 07, 2015, 08:23:34 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 08:17:17 AM
One wonders how Putin's Russia is going to be able to afford war in Syria plus war in Ukraine.

These are investments, not expenses.  We'll help you now.  You pay tribute later  :menace:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 08:26:35 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 07, 2015, 08:23:34 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 08:17:17 AM
One wonders how Putin's Russia is going to be able to afford war in Syria plus war in Ukraine.

These are investments, not expenses.  We'll help you now.  You pay tribute later  :menace:

Eastern Ukraine, the Crimea, and Syria were shit-holes economically *before* they were trashed by war. Unless he is thinking of honing in on ISIS's sex-slavery racket, it is hard to see them paying much in the way of "tribute" *after* they have been trashed by war.  :P

This is like taking over Detroit as a war-lord, for the loot.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Monoriu on October 07, 2015, 08:33:14 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 08:26:35 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 07, 2015, 08:23:34 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 08:17:17 AM
One wonders how Putin's Russia is going to be able to afford war in Syria plus war in Ukraine.

These are investments, not expenses.  We'll help you now.  You pay tribute later  :menace:

Eastern Ukraine, the Crimea, and Syria were shit-holes economically *before* they were trashed by war. Unless he is thinking of honing in on ISIS's sex-slavery racket, it is hard to see them paying much in the way of "tribute" *after* they have been trashed by war.  :P

This is like taking over Detroit as a war-lord, for the loot.

I've read somewhere that eastern Ukraine is the most well-off part of Ukraine, which isn't that poor to begin with.  Part of the reason why Hitler wanted that area.  Crimea is a holiday resort for Russians.  Syria, I don't know, it seems important in all the Roman-era games that I played  :P
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 08:40:44 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 07, 2015, 08:33:14 AM

I've read somewhere that eastern Ukraine is the most well-off part of Ukraine, which isn't that poor to begin with.  Part of the reason why Hitler wanted that area.  Crimea is a holiday resort for Russians.  Syria, I don't know, it seems important in all the Roman-era games that I played  :P

Nope, Eastern Ukraine was the "rust belt" - full of obsolete Soviet heavy industry gone to seed. It's the Detroit of Ukraine. To the extent that the locals actually support Russia, it's because of a mix of ethno-nationalism (many if not most are "ethnic Russians" moved in after the Soviets murdered the locals), current grinding poverty, and nostalgia for the good old days when there were jobs - under the Soviet Union. They hope that, with Russia in charge, the jobs will return, which is highly unlikely.

Crimea was a resort area, but tourism never actually paid the bills - it has always been a net money consumer. And tourists are thin on the ground these days.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 07, 2015, 08:55:58 AM
You know, Putin's regime/leadership shows so much similarity with Hungary's, and those guys, at the end of the day, are only after wealth.

Maybe all this intervention is about that: Assad selling the family silver to buy Putin's services.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 09:01:41 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 07, 2015, 08:55:58 AM
You know, Putin's regime/leadership shows so much similarity with Hungary's, and those guys, at the end of the day, are only after wealth.

Maybe all this intervention is about that: Assad selling the family silver to buy Putin's services.

Peronally, I think Putin resembles Mussolini in the 30s. Mussolini also loved tweaking the West, arousing nationalist fervour, and aggrandizing himself by invading various useless places like Albania and Ethiopia; like Putin, many thought he was a "genius" for doing so.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on October 07, 2015, 09:55:10 AM
It is so depressing that here we are, four and a half years into this horrible war, and it does not look anywhere near decided. Hell I am not even sure who has the upper hand right now, now that Russia is going all in with Assad.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 07, 2015, 10:02:14 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 07, 2015, 09:55:10 AM
It is so depressing that here we are, four and a half years into this horrible war, and it does not look anywhere near decided. Hell I am not even sure who has the upper hand right now, now that Russia is going all in with Assad.

I am still strongly hoping everyone else will stand aside (apart from the various Muslim states sending weapons to their lieblings) and let Russia fight it out for Assad. There is no bad ending of that one for the West.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on October 07, 2015, 10:11:39 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 07, 2015, 10:02:14 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 07, 2015, 09:55:10 AM
It is so depressing that here we are, four and a half years into this horrible war, and it does not look anywhere near decided. Hell I am not even sure who has the upper hand right now, now that Russia is going all in with Assad.

I am still strongly hoping everyone else will stand aside (apart from the various Muslim states sending weapons to their lieblings) and let Russia fight it out for Assad. There is no bad ending of that one for the West.

I would agree that that bad ending is less bad than most of the other bad endings, but I would not say it isn't a bad ending.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 07, 2015, 10:15:43 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 08:40:44 AM
Nope, Eastern Ukraine was the "rust belt" - full of obsolete Soviet heavy industry gone to seed. It's the Detroit of Ukraine. To the extent that the locals actually support Russia, it's because of a mix of ethno-nationalism (many if not most are "ethnic Russians" moved in after the Soviets murdered the locals), current grinding poverty, and nostalgia for the good old days when there were jobs - under the Soviet Union. They hope that, with Russia in charge, the jobs will return, which is highly unlikely.
I don't think any of this is actually true.  The eastern part of Ukraine is definitely industrial, but the industry was functioning.  Whether it was solely due to subsidies or not is a good question, but GDP per capita of the eastern parts was several times that of the most western parts.  It wasn't even close. 

I also think that there was that much resettlement in the eastern Ukraine, that was more of the case in the western Ukraine (especially Galicia).  It's just that the eastern part of Ukraine has been part of Russia for longer than the western part, historically.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on October 07, 2015, 10:20:46 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 08:17:17 AM
One wonders how Putin's Russia is going to be able to afford war in Syria plus war in Ukraine.

Didn't they put everything on hold in Eastern Ukraine for now?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 10:44:35 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 07, 2015, 10:15:43 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 08:40:44 AM
Nope, Eastern Ukraine was the "rust belt" - full of obsolete Soviet heavy industry gone to seed. It's the Detroit of Ukraine. To the extent that the locals actually support Russia, it's because of a mix of ethno-nationalism (many if not most are "ethnic Russians" moved in after the Soviets murdered the locals), current grinding poverty, and nostalgia for the good old days when there were jobs - under the Soviet Union. They hope that, with Russia in charge, the jobs will return, which is highly unlikely.
I don't think any of this is actually true.  The eastern part of Ukraine is definitely industrial, but the industry was functioning.  Whether it was solely due to subsidies or not is a good question, but GDP per capita of the eastern parts was several times that of the most western parts.  It wasn't even close. 

I also think that there was that much resettlement in the eastern Ukraine, that was more of the case in the western Ukraine (especially Galicia).  It's just that the eastern part of Ukraine has been part of Russia for longer than the western part, historically.

Ukraine "rust belt" distopian:

http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2014/04/10/301025809/in-ukraines-rust-belt-a-mix-of-nostalgia-and-nationalism

Ukraine "rust belt" relies on selling otherwise-uncompetitve products to Russia:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-04-09/ukraine-s-rust-belt-fears-ruin-as-putin-threatens-imports

What can Russia expect in Ukraine's rust belt:

http://ukrainianpolicy.com/what-russia-can-expect-in-ukraines-rust-belt/

QuoteIn their search to maintain control, Russians would quickly discover that they are in possession of economically unviable provinces that cannot survive without massive infusions of rubles. According to a detailed Ukrainian study of how much Ukraine's provinces paid into and received from the central budget in the first half of 2013, Crimea, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhya represented an enormous drain on Kyiv's resources: 22.82 billion hryvnia (around $2.5 billion, or 90 billion rubles). And that is only for the first six months of the year. Multiplied by two, the deficit amounts to 45.64 billion hryvnia (about $5 billion, or 180 billion rubles).

In 2014, Russia expects its budget revenues to be around 13.6 trillion rubles (around $375 billion); its expenditures are supposed to total 14 trillion rubles ($380 billion). That amounts to a deficit of 400 billion rubles ($11 billion). Even without extra development funds or the costs of an occupation, annexing Ukraine's southeast will raise Russia's deficit by 45 percent.

The bad news gets worse for Russia. Luhansk and Donetsk provinces are home to Ukraine's loss-making coal industry. Kyiv spends between 12 and 14 billion hryvnia(around $1 billion–$1.5 billion, or 47 billion–55 billion rubles) annually to support these mines. Will Russia back these enterprises even as they compete with more economically produced coal from Russia's Kuzbass? It will have to: As Kyiv knows from experience, firing thousands of coal miners could spark massive civil unrest. Moscow will also have to pay them their wages on time. In 2013, wage arrears reached a total of 135 million hryvnia (about $15 million, or 530 million rubles) in Donetsk and Luhansk.

The overwhelming impression is that, in terms of economic gains, invading East Ukraine was a bad idea. It was, as stated, like invading Detroit. What wealth they had, came from uncompetitive industries and highly subsidized resource extraction that Russia will now have to pay for.

Oh yeah, and:

Quote
In the early 1930s, to force peasants into joining collective farms, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin orchestrated a famine that resulted in the starvation and death of millions of Ukrainians. Afterward, Stalin imported large numbers of Russians and other Soviet citizens—many with no ability to speak Ukrainian and with few ties to the region—to help repopulate the east.

This, says former ambassador to Ukraine Steven Pifer, is just one of the historic reasons that helps explain why "the sense of Ukrainian nationalism is not as deep in the east as it is in west."

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/02/140224-ukraine-protests-president-ousted-history-geography-background/
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 10:48:23 AM
Quote from: Syt on October 07, 2015, 10:20:46 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 08:17:17 AM
One wonders how Putin's Russia is going to be able to afford war in Syria plus war in Ukraine.

Didn't they put everything on hold in Eastern Ukraine for now?

They still have to pay for an army to protect their gains ... and, as mentioned, massive subsidies to keep at least some locals employed.   
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 07, 2015, 11:11:33 AM
Most of the former Soviet bloc is made up those crummy factories producing stuff nobody wants.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 07, 2015, 11:17:08 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 07, 2015, 11:11:33 AM
Most of the former Soviet bloc is made up those crummy factories producing stuff nobody wants.

IDK about the former Soviet Union, but the rest of Eastern Europe is making a living being (relative) wage slaves to German businesses and factories via the EU.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 07, 2015, 11:23:26 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 07, 2015, 11:17:08 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 07, 2015, 11:11:33 AM
Most of the former Soviet bloc is made up those crummy factories producing stuff nobody wants.

IDK about the former Soviet Union, but the rest of Eastern Europe is making a living being (relative) wage slaves to German businesses and factories via the EU.

What a strange sentiment coming from you.  Anyway, I meant the former Soviet states except for the Baltic ones which made the transition easier.  Ukraine has simply floundered in the post Soviet age.  Russia has revived itself for the most part, and Belarus isn't aware that anything changed.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 07, 2015, 11:25:43 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 07, 2015, 11:23:26 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 07, 2015, 11:17:08 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 07, 2015, 11:11:33 AM
Most of the former Soviet bloc is made up those crummy factories producing stuff nobody wants.

IDK about the former Soviet Union, but the rest of Eastern Europe is making a living being (relative) wage slaves to German businesses and factories via the EU.

What a strange sentiment coming from you.  Anyway, I meant the former Soviet states except for the Baltic ones which made the transition easier.  Ukraine has simply floundered in the post Soviet age.  Russia has revived itself for the most part, and Belarus isn't aware that anything changed.

What is strange about it? I have no problems with it - Eastern Europeans offer to do the job with the same skill but for less, and thus get the jobs.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 07, 2015, 11:27:53 AM
The phrase "wage slave" coming from a free market fundamentalist.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 07, 2015, 11:40:10 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 09:01:41 AM
Peronally, I think Putin resembles Mussolini in the 30s. Mussolini also loved tweaking the West, arousing nationalist fervour, and aggrandizing himself by invading various useless places like Albania and Ethiopia; like Putin, many thought he was a "genius" for doing so.

Not a bad comparison.
Putin is all about the triumph of good tactics over sensible strategy.  Tactically, the surprise fait accomplis and management of the propaganda and information war in Ukraine have been brilliant but to what end?  In the place of a cheap, nice long-term concession in Sevastopol, being saddled with the economic deadweight of the entire Crimean peninsula; in the place of a position of strong informal political and financial influence over all of Ukraine, domination over the bleeding ruin of the eastern rump and the implacable hatred of the rest; comfy relationships with Germany and France replaced with official frigidity and initiatives to wean off Russian gas.

Russia has a decently educated population, solid second tier arms technology and export opportunities and access to natural resources.  Beyond that lots of strategic problems: scary demographics including plummeting birth rates and disturbingly high mortality and morbidity rates (alcoholism strikes again), an energy dominated economy plagued by decades of deferred investment and maintenance problems and collapsing energy prices, a huge dangerously unstable southern flank at high risk of jihadist penetration.  Putin's adventures in Ukraine and Syria are squandering huge resources badly needed elsewhere.  Russia's central geopolitical and diplomatic position could put it in great position to triangulate between the USA and he PRC; by instead playing to the domestic gallery in attacking the West, he has undermined all leverage with China- arguably the more serious potential security threat - and entered into unequal deals for show.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 07, 2015, 11:45:25 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 10:44:35 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 07, 2015, 10:15:43 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 08:40:44 AM
Nope, Eastern Ukraine was the "rust belt" - full of obsolete Soviet heavy industry gone to seed. It's the Detroit of Ukraine. To the extent that the locals actually support Russia, it's because of a mix of ethno-nationalism (many if not most are "ethnic Russians" moved in after the Soviets murdered the locals), current grinding poverty, and nostalgia for the good old days when there were jobs - under the Soviet Union. They hope that, with Russia in charge, the jobs will return, which is highly unlikely.
I don't think any of this is actually true.  The eastern part of Ukraine is definitely industrial, but the industry was functioning.  Whether it was solely due to subsidies or not is a good question, but GDP per capita of the eastern parts was several times that of the most western parts.  It wasn't even close. 

I also think that there was that much resettlement in the eastern Ukraine, that was more of the case in the western Ukraine (especially Galicia).  It's just that the eastern part of Ukraine has been part of Russia for longer than the western part, historically.

Ukraine "rust belt" distopian:

http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2014/04/10/301025809/in-ukraines-rust-belt-a-mix-of-nostalgia-and-nationalism

Ukraine "rust belt" relies on selling otherwise-uncompetitve products to Russia:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-04-09/ukraine-s-rust-belt-fears-ruin-as-putin-threatens-imports

What can Russia expect in Ukraine's rust belt:

http://ukrainianpolicy.com/what-russia-can-expect-in-ukraines-rust-belt/

QuoteIn their search to maintain control, Russians would quickly discover that they are in possession of economically unviable provinces that cannot survive without massive infusions of rubles. According to a detailed Ukrainian study of how much Ukraine's provinces paid into and received from the central budget in the first half of 2013, Crimea, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhya represented an enormous drain on Kyiv's resources: 22.82 billion hryvnia (around $2.5 billion, or 90 billion rubles). And that is only for the first six months of the year. Multiplied by two, the deficit amounts to 45.64 billion hryvnia (about $5 billion, or 180 billion rubles).

In 2014, Russia expects its budget revenues to be around 13.6 trillion rubles (around $375 billion); its expenditures are supposed to total 14 trillion rubles ($380 billion). That amounts to a deficit of 400 billion rubles ($11 billion). Even without extra development funds or the costs of an occupation, annexing Ukraine's southeast will raise Russia's deficit by 45 percent.

The bad news gets worse for Russia. Luhansk and Donetsk provinces are home to Ukraine's loss-making coal industry. Kyiv spends between 12 and 14 billion hryvnia(around $1 billion–$1.5 billion, or 47 billion–55 billion rubles) annually to support these mines. Will Russia back these enterprises even as they compete with more economically produced coal from Russia's Kuzbass? It will have to: As Kyiv knows from experience, firing thousands of coal miners could spark massive civil unrest. Moscow will also have to pay them their wages on time. In 2013, wage arrears reached a total of 135 million hryvnia (about $15 million, or 530 million rubles) in Donetsk and Luhansk.

The overwhelming impression is that, in terms of economic gains, invading East Ukraine was a bad idea. It was, as stated, like invading Detroit. What wealth they had, came from uncompetitive industries and highly subsidized resource extraction that Russia will now have to pay for.

Oh yeah, and:

Quote
In the early 1930s, to force peasants into joining collective farms, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin orchestrated a famine that resulted in the starvation and death of millions of Ukrainians. Afterward, Stalin imported large numbers of Russians and other Soviet citizens—many with no ability to speak Ukrainian and with few ties to the region—to help repopulate the east.

This, says former ambassador to Ukraine Steven Pifer, is just one of the historic reasons that helps explain why "the sense of Ukrainian nationalism is not as deep in the east as it is in west."

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/02/140224-ukraine-protests-president-ousted-history-geography-background/
I'm sure the eastern industry is not the most competitive one, and it relied on subsidies from both Kiev and Moscow, but as far as the sense of the citizens there themselves feeling like they were in Detroit, that's not the case.  At least not relatively.  Here is the GDP per capita map from Wiki:

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/41/Ukraine_GRP_per_capita_2008_US_dollars_%28nominal%29.png)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ukrainian_subdivisions_by_GDP_per_capita

If the east is Detroit, than the west is 3x Detroit.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 12:10:23 PM
Just goes to show that GDP isn't everything - particularly where whole regions are artificially kept alive by subsidies and uneconomic trade arrangements.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 07, 2015, 12:16:43 PM
I like the Mussolini analogy as well.  It helps keep this in perspective.  For all his strutting bravado and military aggression, his situation is getting weaker forcing him closer to China.  Fortunately I don't think China wants to play the role of Hitler.  So Russia will just end up in China's back pocket.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on October 07, 2015, 12:19:28 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 07, 2015, 11:45:25 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 10:44:35 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 07, 2015, 10:15:43 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 08:40:44 AM
Nope, Eastern Ukraine was the "rust belt" - full of obsolete Soviet heavy industry gone to seed. It's the Detroit of Ukraine. To the extent that the locals actually support Russia, it's because of a mix of ethno-nationalism (many if not most are "ethnic Russians" moved in after the Soviets murdered the locals), current grinding poverty, and nostalgia for the good old days when there were jobs - under the Soviet Union. They hope that, with Russia in charge, the jobs will return, which is highly unlikely.
I don't think any of this is actually true.  The eastern part of Ukraine is definitely industrial, but the industry was functioning.  Whether it was solely due to subsidies or not is a good question, but GDP per capita of the eastern parts was several times that of the most western parts.  It wasn't even close. 

I also think that there was that much resettlement in the eastern Ukraine, that was more of the case in the western Ukraine (especially Galicia).  It's just that the eastern part of Ukraine has been part of Russia for longer than the western part, historically.

Ukraine "rust belt" distopian:

http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2014/04/10/301025809/in-ukraines-rust-belt-a-mix-of-nostalgia-and-nationalism

Ukraine "rust belt" relies on selling otherwise-uncompetitve products to Russia:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-04-09/ukraine-s-rust-belt-fears-ruin-as-putin-threatens-imports

What can Russia expect in Ukraine's rust belt:

http://ukrainianpolicy.com/what-russia-can-expect-in-ukraines-rust-belt/

QuoteIn their search to maintain control, Russians would quickly discover that they are in possession of economically unviable provinces that cannot survive without massive infusions of rubles. According to a detailed Ukrainian study of how much Ukraine's provinces paid into and received from the central budget in the first half of 2013, Crimea, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhya represented an enormous drain on Kyiv's resources: 22.82 billion hryvnia (around $2.5 billion, or 90 billion rubles). And that is only for the first six months of the year. Multiplied by two, the deficit amounts to 45.64 billion hryvnia (about $5 billion, or 180 billion rubles).

In 2014, Russia expects its budget revenues to be around 13.6 trillion rubles (around $375 billion); its expenditures are supposed to total 14 trillion rubles ($380 billion). That amounts to a deficit of 400 billion rubles ($11 billion). Even without extra development funds or the costs of an occupation, annexing Ukraine's southeast will raise Russia's deficit by 45 percent.

The bad news gets worse for Russia. Luhansk and Donetsk provinces are home to Ukraine's loss-making coal industry. Kyiv spends between 12 and 14 billion hryvnia(around $1 billion–$1.5 billion, or 47 billion–55 billion rubles) annually to support these mines. Will Russia back these enterprises even as they compete with more economically produced coal from Russia's Kuzbass? It will have to: As Kyiv knows from experience, firing thousands of coal miners could spark massive civil unrest. Moscow will also have to pay them their wages on time. In 2013, wage arrears reached a total of 135 million hryvnia (about $15 million, or 530 million rubles) in Donetsk and Luhansk.

The overwhelming impression is that, in terms of economic gains, invading East Ukraine was a bad idea. It was, as stated, like invading Detroit. What wealth they had, came from uncompetitive industries and highly subsidized resource extraction that Russia will now have to pay for.

Oh yeah, and:

Quote
In the early 1930s, to force peasants into joining collective farms, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin orchestrated a famine that resulted in the starvation and death of millions of Ukrainians. Afterward, Stalin imported large numbers of Russians and other Soviet citizens—many with no ability to speak Ukrainian and with few ties to the region—to help repopulate the east.

This, says former ambassador to Ukraine Steven Pifer, is just one of the historic reasons that helps explain why "the sense of Ukrainian nationalism is not as deep in the east as it is in west."

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/02/140224-ukraine-protests-president-ousted-history-geography-background/
I'm sure the eastern industry is not the most competitive one, and it relied on subsidies from both Kiev and Moscow, but as far as the sense of the citizens there themselves feeling like they were in Detroit, that's not the case.  At least not relatively.  Here is the GDP per capita map from Wiki:

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/41/Ukraine_GRP_per_capita_2008_US_dollars_%28nominal%29.png)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ukrainian_subdivisions_by_GDP_per_capita

If the east is Detroit, than the west is 3x Detroit.

:yeahright:

This map appears to support the Malthusian position:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi13.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa299%2FSlayhem%2FUkraine_zps1mdslwqk.jpg&hash=688212a22cf43d4f324c5d2110f79e004ae7cb6e)

:hmm:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 12:22:41 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 07, 2015, 11:40:10 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 09:01:41 AM
Peronally, I think Putin resembles Mussolini in the 30s. Mussolini also loved tweaking the West, arousing nationalist fervour, and aggrandizing himself by invading various useless places like Albania and Ethiopia; like Putin, many thought he was a "genius" for doing so.

Not a bad comparison.
Putin is all about the triumph of good tactics over sensible strategy.  Tactically, the surprise fait accomplis and management of the propaganda and information war in Ukraine have been brilliant but to what end?  In the place of a cheap, nice long-term concession in Sevastopol, being saddled with the economic deadweight of the entire Crimean peninsula; in the place of a position of strong informal political and financial influence over all of Ukraine, domination over the bleeding ruin of the eastern rump and the implacable hatred of the rest; comfy relationships with Germany and France replaced with official frigidity and initiatives to wean off Russian gas.

Russia has a decently educated population, solid second tier arms technology and export opportunities and access to natural resources.  Beyond that lots of strategic problems: scary demographics including plummeting birth rates and disturbingly high mortality and morbidity rates (alcoholism strikes again), an energy dominated economy plagued by decades of deferred investment and maintenance problems and collapsing energy prices, a huge dangerously unstable southern flank at high risk of jihadist penetration.  Putin's adventures in Ukraine and Syria are squandering huge resources badly needed elsewhere.  Russia's central geopolitical and diplomatic position could put it in great position to triangulate between the USA and he PRC; by instead playing to the domestic gallery in attacking the West, he has undermined all leverage with China- arguably the more serious potential security threat - and entered into unequal deals for show.

Yup, pretty well my read on it.

Unfortunate for his Ukrainian victims - but not fortunate for the Russians, either. How long they will be content to have their futures mortgaged for such accomplishments is anyone's guess.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 07, 2015, 12:25:11 PM
Around 50 years
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 12:30:16 PM
Heh, more awesome economic news from Putin:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/30/russia-economy-pensions-idUSL5N1201EU20150930
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 07, 2015, 01:47:16 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 12:10:23 PM
Just goes to show that GDP isn't everything - particularly where whole regions are artificially kept alive by subsidies and uneconomic trade arrangements.
:lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 01:55:43 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 07, 2015, 01:47:16 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 07, 2015, 12:10:23 PM
Just goes to show that GDP isn't everything - particularly where whole regions are artificially kept alive by subsidies and uneconomic trade arrangements.
:lol:

:bowler:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Josquius on October 07, 2015, 03:12:10 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 07, 2015, 11:45:25 AM

I'm sure the eastern industry is not the most competitive one, and it relied on subsidies from both Kiev and Moscow, but as far as the sense of the citizens there themselves feeling like they were in Detroit, that's not the case.  At least not relatively.  Here is the GDP per capita map from Wiki:

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/41/Ukraine_GRP_per_capita_2008_US_dollars_%28nominal%29.png)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ukrainian_subdivisions_by_GDP_per_capita

If the east is Detroit, than the west is 3x Detroit.

A lot of soviet era industry was developed less with the idea of "OK, is this a sensible sustainable industry for this location?" and more with the idea of "If the resources have to come from this SSR and they manufacturing is done in this SSR then it will tie the union together!"
Most of this soviet era industry was in the west.
In the east they had pre-existing sensible industries due to raw material reserves.
Thus post soviets the west died whilst the east limped on.

Considering wages in Ukraine being what they are the industry in the east may well have been doing OK.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on October 07, 2015, 03:23:19 PM
Sometimes I get the feeling that the USSR really was a bad deal for many of the republics involved.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on October 07, 2015, 03:24:32 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 07, 2015, 03:23:19 PM
Sometimes I get the feeling that the USSR really was a bad deal for many of the republicans involved.

Democrats didn't fair much better.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 07, 2015, 03:25:40 PM
I think the truth lies somewhere between Guller's map and Brain's schematic.

Dnipropetrovsk oblast -- the dark green region -- is pretty diversified industrially.  But that lies outside the Russian zone of control.  The separatist controlled regions -- Donetsk and Lugansk - are industrial and urbanized (hence higher current levels of GDP) but heavily concentrated in the coal and iron industry ("rusty")
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 07, 2015, 03:43:28 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 07, 2015, 03:23:19 PM
Sometimes I get the feeling that the USSR really was a bad deal for many of the republics involved.
I'm not sure about that.  It was definitely a bad deal for the Baltic republics, but for the others, it's very debatable.  It's not like the other republics were all that developed, and were guaranteed to flourish if not for Russia.  And once you go from Eastern Europe to *stans, USSR starts looking pretty damn good.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 07, 2015, 04:14:28 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 07, 2015, 03:43:28 PM
I'm not sure about that.  It was definitely a bad deal for the Baltic republics, but for the others, it's very debatable.  It's not like the other republics were all that developed, and were guaranteed to flourish if not for Russia.  And once you go from Eastern Europe to *stans, USSR starts looking pretty damn good.

The Stans probably wouldn't have had the resources or the motivation to conduct the industrial scale environmental destruction wrought by the commissars.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 07, 2015, 05:05:52 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 07, 2015, 11:40:10 AM

scary demographics including plummeting birth rates and disturbingly high mortality and morbidity rates (alcoholism strikes again),
I thought that the birthrate had mostly recovered in the last few years.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 07, 2015, 05:12:41 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on October 07, 2015, 05:05:52 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 07, 2015, 11:40:10 AM

scary demographics including plummeting birth rates and disturbingly high mortality and morbidity rates (alcoholism strikes again),
I thought that the birthrate had mostly recovered in the last few years.
It has.  :(
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Josquius on October 07, 2015, 05:13:30 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on October 07, 2015, 05:05:52 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 07, 2015, 11:40:10 AM

scary demographics including plummeting birth rates
and disturbingly high mortality and morbidity rates (alcoholism strikes again),
I thought that the birthrate had mostly recovered in the last few years.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure it has.
Though the missing children from the 90s/00s are a problem only just ripening.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 07, 2015, 05:23:52 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on October 07, 2015, 05:05:52 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 07, 2015, 11:40:10 AM

scary demographics including plummeting birth rates and disturbingly high mortality and morbidity rates (alcoholism strikes again),
I thought that the birthrate had mostly recovered in the last few years.

Another benefit for the 'Stans in the Soviet Union.  You were always getting some influx of people from other parts of the Soviet Union.  Not just workers and their families but whole ethnic groups would be settling out in the middle of nowhere.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 07, 2015, 06:08:12 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 07, 2015, 05:13:30 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on October 07, 2015, 05:05:52 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 07, 2015, 11:40:10 AM

scary demographics including plummeting birth rates
and disturbingly high mortality and morbidity rates (alcoholism strikes again),
I thought that the birthrate had mostly recovered in the last few years.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure it has.
Though the missing children from the 90s/00s are a problem only just ripening.

Just goes to show that data >>> bs-ing from memory.   :blush:

HOWEVER.
Fertility rates are still well below replacement, and Russia is not exactly well positioned as a high quality immigration magnet.  And as Tyr says, as the Yeltsin-era girls reach prime child bearing age another dive is likely.
Also, male life expectancy in the 65 area is nothing to hold a parade about.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 07, 2015, 06:32:55 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 07, 2015, 06:08:12 PM
HOWEVER.
Fertility rates are still well below replacement, and Russia is not exactly well positioned as a high quality immigration magnet.  And as Tyr says, as the Yeltsin-era girls reach prime child bearing age another dive is likely.
Also, male life expectancy in the 65 area is nothing to hold a parade about.
As far as immigration goes, I don't know if the data supports it, but Russians are quite concerned about mass immigration from Central Asian countries.  Compared to its neighborhood, Russian economy is quite strong, and there are plenty of former Soviet republics around where Russian is still widely spoken.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 07, 2015, 06:36:05 PM
I don't think that anyone is saying that Russia's hand is hopeless, just that Putin isn't strengthening it.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on October 07, 2015, 07:13:19 PM
Well the US has ended up spending $500 million on 5-6 active rebels and some others who're at this very moment negotiation what safe passage they can get in return for their underwear and boots, which make Moscow's involvement so far look relatively cost effective.

Incidentally I watch a CNN/BBC short documentary on a big US carrier (Theodore Roosevelt?) and the captain said they'd dropped 792,000 lbs (360 tons) of ordnance and expended around 10 million gallons of jet fuel doing so (though I'd have thought that would be the total for the all air operations by the carrier during it's deployment and it's probably for both Syria and Iraq missions.

Nothing especially surprising there, as those sort of operations are expensive in many ways, but what interested me was I saw it just after seeing a report elsewhere about ISIL training and indoctrinating thousands, if not tens of thousands of children, some as young as eight, to be fighters and suicide bombers; talk about asymmetric warfare, multi-billion dollar carriers vs children strapped into explosive vests.  :(

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 07, 2015, 07:16:37 PM
Sorry to step on your joke, but I heard recently that only 5 of that 500 million has been spent.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 07, 2015, 07:25:51 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 07, 2015, 07:13:19 PM
Incidentally I watch a CNN/BBC short documentary on a big US carrier (Theodore Roosevelt?) and the captain said they'd dropped 792,000 lbs (360 tons) of ordnance and expended around 10 million gallons of jet fuel doing so (though I'd have thought that would be the total for the all air operations by the carrier during it's deployment and it's probably for both Syria and Iraq missions.

Nothing especially surprising there, as those sort of operations are expensive in many ways, but what interested me was I saw it just after seeing a report elsewhere about ISIL training and indoctrinating thousands, if not tens of thousands of children, some as young as eight, to be fighters and suicide bombers; talk about asymmetric warfare, multi-billion dollar carriers vs children strapped into explosive vests.  :(
I think that is a problem for modern armies.  What is the point of being the most powerful military in the world if exercising that power is economically prohibitive?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: dps on October 07, 2015, 07:32:02 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 07, 2015, 07:25:51 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 07, 2015, 07:13:19 PM
Incidentally I watch a CNN/BBC short documentary on a big US carrier (Theodore Roosevelt?) and the captain said they'd dropped 792,000 lbs (360 tons) of ordnance and expended around 10 million gallons of jet fuel doing so (though I'd have thought that would be the total for the all air operations by the carrier during it's deployment and it's probably for both Syria and Iraq missions.

Nothing especially surprising there, as those sort of operations are expensive in many ways, but what interested me was I saw it just after seeing a report elsewhere about ISIL training and indoctrinating thousands, if not tens of thousands of children, some as young as eight, to be fighters and suicide bombers; talk about asymmetric warfare, multi-billion dollar carriers vs children strapped into explosive vests.  :(
I think that is a problem for modern armies.  What is the point of being the most powerful military in the world if exercising that power is economically prohibitive?

Maybe we just should send the 11 year old from the other thread to the Middle East.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on October 07, 2015, 07:34:06 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 07, 2015, 07:25:51 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 07, 2015, 07:13:19 PM
Incidentally I watch a CNN/BBC short documentary on a big US carrier (Theodore Roosevelt?) and the captain said they'd dropped 792,000 lbs (360 tons) of ordnance and expended around 10 million gallons of jet fuel doing so (though I'd have thought that would be the total for the all air operations by the carrier during it's deployment and it's probably for both Syria and Iraq missions.

Nothing especially surprising there, as those sort of operations are expensive in many ways, but what interested me was I saw it just after seeing a report elsewhere about ISIL training and indoctrinating thousands, if not tens of thousands of children, some as young as eight, to be fighters and suicide bombers; talk about asymmetric warfare, multi-billion dollar carriers vs children strapped into explosive vests.  :(
I think that is a problem for modern armies.  What is the point of being the most powerful military in the world if exercising that power is economically prohibitive?

The draft to fight ISIL?

Killing Western and especially American soldiers on the ground in Syria/Iraq is exactly what they want, so that's should be nearly the last play.

Maybe the West/NATO should find more proxies to fight the war on the ground for them?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on October 07, 2015, 07:37:00 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 07, 2015, 07:16:37 PM
Sorry to step on your joke, but I heard recently that only 5 of that 500 million has been spent.

Foreign policy says over $41 million to get to those 5-6 plus the 100+ recently set there currently falling apart as a unit.

What's the guarantee that the remaining $450 million of the program is going to be significantly more effective over the next year or so?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 07, 2015, 07:38:12 PM
Quote from: dps on October 07, 2015, 07:32:02 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 07, 2015, 07:25:51 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 07, 2015, 07:13:19 PM
Incidentally I watch a CNN/BBC short documentary on a big US carrier (Theodore Roosevelt?) and the captain said they'd dropped 792,000 lbs (360 tons) of ordnance and expended around 10 million gallons of jet fuel doing so (though I'd have thought that would be the total for the all air operations by the carrier during it's deployment and it's probably for both Syria and Iraq missions.

Nothing especially surprising there, as those sort of operations are expensive in many ways, but what interested me was I saw it just after seeing a report elsewhere about ISIL training and indoctrinating thousands, if not tens of thousands of children, some as young as eight, to be fighters and suicide bombers; talk about asymmetric warfare, multi-billion dollar carriers vs children strapped into explosive vests.  :(
I think that is a problem for modern armies.  What is the point of being the most powerful military in the world if exercising that power is economically prohibitive?

Maybe we just should send the 11 year old from the other thread to the Middle East.
:XD:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on October 08, 2015, 08:37:01 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 07, 2015, 03:43:28 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 07, 2015, 03:23:19 PM
Sometimes I get the feeling that the USSR really was a bad deal for many of the republics involved.
I'm not sure about that.  It was definitely a bad deal for the Baltic republics, but for the others, it's very debatable.  It's not like the other republics were all that developed, and were guaranteed to flourish if not for Russia. 

Well, maybe maybe not - but it seems pretty clear they were guaranteed NOT to flourish under Soviet rule, so a "maybe" would be an improvement.

Forced "flourishing" under false economic pretense is no long term help.
Quote
And once you go from Eastern Europe to *stans, USSR starts looking pretty damn good.

In the long run? Really?

Not sure I buy that.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 10:02:59 AM
You have to separate USSR from communism to have a meaningful discussion like this.  Obviously USSR hasn't managed to disassociate itself from communism before it fell apart, so no, in the long run, no entity run under communism would flourish beyond a certain point.  That said, communists did bring about education and industrialization to largely agrarian economy, albeit at an unacceptable human cost, so in the short run they accelerated development.

But if Gorbachev were more adroit at reforming USSR, would eastern Europe or stans be better off being part of the same country?  I think a lot of reasonable people can justifiably answer affirmatively (though I personally don't really know).  It's a misconception to think of USSR is an empire with Russia as a colonizing power, and the other 14 republics as colonies.  It was really conceptualized as a mutually-beneficial union and written as such, which is why it all so easily fell apart when republics wanted out.  They actually had the right to do it.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on October 08, 2015, 10:31:35 AM
Oh, I don't at all think of the USSR as Russia plus some pissed off colonies. Indeed, I actually think that Communism was largely attempted in basically "good faith". An abject failure, maybe even so abject as to be unfair to the basic ideals of Communism in fact, but still I think the people who ran the USSR, within the normal bounds of human shittiness, did so with the idea that what they were doing was beneficial to those involved, including the SSRs.

I think the idea that as late as Gorbachev one could come up with a "If only they had..." scenario is pretty farcical however. The success or failure of Soviet Communism had long since been determined before that, and no amount of even theoretically amazing reform could change it at that point.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 10:35:51 AM
We'll probably never know whether Gorbachev was incompetent, Deng Xiaoping was a genius, or whether these two situations are incompatible.  Maybe Gorbachev had a hopeless hand, but he played it badly regardless.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Barrister on October 08, 2015, 10:39:32 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 10:35:51 AM
We'll probably never know whether Gorbachev was incompetent, Deng Xiaoping was a genius, or whether these two situations are incompatible.  Maybe Gorbachev had a hopeless hand, but he played it badly regardless.

The question wasn't "could the USSR have survived", but "could soviet communism have survived", and I think the answer is clearly no.

The PRC has survived because it has completely abandoned communism as a guiding ideal, and embraced state capitalism instead.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 10:41:21 AM
Quote from: Barrister on October 08, 2015, 10:39:32 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 10:35:51 AM
We'll probably never know whether Gorbachev was incompetent, Deng Xiaoping was a genius, or whether these two situations are incompatible.  Maybe Gorbachev had a hopeless hand, but he played it badly regardless.

The question wasn't "could the USSR have survived", but "could soviet communism have survived", and I think the answer is clearly no.

The PRC has survived because it has completely abandoned communism as a guiding ideal, and embraced state capitalism instead.
Well, yes, I said as much.  Communism was clearly a dead end that had to be steered away from.  Whether USSR had to die and not become USCR, and whether it was a good thing or not, is what I thought we were discussing.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 10:45:18 AM
And yes, I know that Gorbachev was trying to make communism better, not steer away from it, but had he or his successors gone on in that direction, they might have come to the proper realization eventually.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 08, 2015, 10:54:54 AM
 :rolleyes:

Where to begin?

USSR WAS Russia plus its conquered territories. In practice.

There was NO WAY a member state of the USSR was allowed to leave without the whole thing being on the brink of collapse. Look at Hungary '56 and Czechslovakia '68, those were not even member states and the Russians went all in on keeping them in the fold.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 10:58:52 AM
Yes, of course, theoretical rights and practical reality are two different things in authoritarian countries.  But the fact that republics could in theory leave the union without it automatically being an insurrection made a big difference.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 08, 2015, 11:03:02 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 10:58:52 AM
Yes, of course, theoretical rights and practical reality are two different things in authoritarian countries.  But the fact that republics could in theory leave the union without it automatically being an insurrection made a big difference.

Where did it make a big difference? That a collapsing inept SU didn't intervene when it could not had even if it wanted to? No.

the USSR was a dictatorship of thugs and gansters like pretty much all Russian regimes have been in history. Thinking its written law or pretentions amounted above the ultimate law of fist is naive in the extreme
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 11:25:35 AM
Quote from: Barrister on October 08, 2015, 10:39:32 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 10:35:51 AM
We'll probably never know whether Gorbachev was incompetent, Deng Xiaoping was a genius, or whether these two situations are incompatible.  Maybe Gorbachev had a hopeless hand, but he played it badly regardless.

The question wasn't "could the USSR have survived", but "could soviet communism have survived", and I think the answer is clearly no.

The PRC has survived because it has completely abandoned communism as a guiding ideal, and embraced state capitalism instead.

This is simply not true.  The PRC hasn't "completely abandoned communism".  Most of the main industries are at least party state owned.  They have modified communism but have far from repudiated it.  The Soviet Union was pretty much "state capitalism" as well.  Certainly Soviet communism could have survived.  For one thing it meant different things at different times, it wasn't unchanging.  Second, North Korea still exists on the Stalinist model so it's easy to envision the Soviet Communism existing today, since it does just that in other countries.  Now, could the Soviet Union have reversed it's relative decline without an overhaul?  Probably not. Could have successfully reformed it's economy enough to preserve the Union?  Possibly, it's hard to tell.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 08, 2015, 11:26:37 AM
 :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 11:39:57 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 08, 2015, 10:54:54 AM
:rolleyes:

Where to begin?

USSR WAS Russia plus its conquered territories. In practice.

There was NO WAY a member state of the USSR was allowed to leave without the whole thing being on the brink of collapse. Look at Hungary '56 and Czechslovakia '68, those were not even member states and the Russians went all in on keeping them in the fold.

Clearly if a if Warpac nation left the alliance it would collapse the whole system.  Which is why Communism collapsed in the 1960's when Albania left the fold.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: alfred russel on October 08, 2015, 12:34:05 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 08, 2015, 10:31:35 AM
Oh, I don't at all think of the USSR as Russia plus some pissed off colonies. Indeed, I actually think that Communism was largely attempted in basically "good faith". An abject failure, maybe even so abject as to be unfair to the basic ideals of Communism in fact, but still I think the people who ran the USSR, within the normal bounds of human shittiness, did so with the idea that what they were doing was beneficial to those involved, including the SSRs.


I don't think the implementation of Communism qualifies as "good faith" at all. Bolsheviks were extremists who managed to gain power through force in very turbulent times. Once in power, the Bolsheviks established themselves through violence, terror, and propaganda. I guess you can argue Lenin was a genuine altruist who believed rough measures were justified to establish the greater good of communism. That is a far tougher argument for Stalin, who was also there from the start.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 08, 2015, 12:45:26 PM
:yes:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 12:54:18 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on October 08, 2015, 12:34:05 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 08, 2015, 10:31:35 AM
Oh, I don't at all think of the USSR as Russia plus some pissed off colonies. Indeed, I actually think that Communism was largely attempted in basically "good faith". An abject failure, maybe even so abject as to be unfair to the basic ideals of Communism in fact, but still I think the people who ran the USSR, within the normal bounds of human shittiness, did so with the idea that what they were doing was beneficial to those involved, including the SSRs.


I don't think the implementation of Communism qualifies as "good faith" at all. Bolsheviks were extremists who managed to gain power through force in very turbulent times. Once in power, the Bolsheviks established themselves through violence, terror, and propaganda. I guess you can argue Lenin was a genuine altruist who believed rough measures were justified to establish the greater good of communism. That is a far tougher argument for Stalin, who was also there from the start.

This was all part of their ideology.  It seems to us difficult for us to believe that the Red Terror was for the good of the people, but communists actually believed that.  It was simply a bad ideology.  They were certainly the most ruthless, violent, and extreme form of Marxism, but that is probably why they ended up in power rather then the Socialist Revolutionaries.  They honestly believed that sacrifice now would pay dividends in the future.  This was true, but the cost was so high as to make us to recoil in revulsion.  Particularity since other countries got better results with much less brutality.  Keep in mind though, that other countries payed high costs (or more often made others pay the cost), for the benefits of Industrialization.  Slave labor provided raw materials for the early textile industry, conquest brought captive markets to imperial powers and famines that could have been prevented ravaged places in Europe, Asia and Africa due indifferent governments.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: alfred russel on October 08, 2015, 12:58:39 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 12:54:18 PM

This was all part of their ideology.  It seems to us difficult for us to believe that the Red Terror was for the good of the people, but communists actually believed that.  It was simply a bad ideology.  They were certainly the most ruthless, violent, and extreme form of Marxism, but that is probably why they ended up in power rather then the Socialist Revolutionaries.  They honestly believed that sacrifice now would pay dividends in the future.  This was true, but the cost was so high as to make us to recoil in revulsion.  Particularity since other countries got better results with much less brutality.  Keep in mind though, that other countries payed high costs (or more often made others pay the cost), for the benefits of Industrialization.  Slave labor provided raw materials for the early textile industry, conquest brought captive markets to imperial powers and famines that could have been prevented ravaged places in Europe, Asia and Africa due indifferent governments.

You can make the same argument that the fascists of roughly the same era really believed their policies were best for the volk.

Both groups were made up of mean "losers" of society who were rather brutal in keeping themselves in power once they grabbed it.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 12:58:57 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 08, 2015, 10:31:35 AM
Oh, I don't at all think of the USSR as Russia plus some pissed off colonies. Indeed, I actually think that Communism was largely attempted in basically "good faith". An abject failure, maybe even so abject as to be unfair to the basic ideals of Communism in fact, but still I think the people who ran the USSR, within the normal bounds of human shittiness, did so with the idea that what they were doing was beneficial to those involved, including the SSRs.

I used to think that. The more I read about the actual history of the Soviet Union, the less I think that. What I think is that there were many within the system who believed at one point that Communism was the wave of the future, but that the actual leaders were, in large part, completely immoral autocrats who simply used this notion on the part of their followers as a useful means to achieve power, and no more believed in the human value of Communism than (say) the Borgias were sincrere committed Christians who committed their crimes in mistaken but good faith attempts to advance Christian morality. I think that situation occurred because the system the Bolsheviks created enabled such types to thrive at the expense of the idealists.

I recommend the book I was reading recently entitled Stalin: Court of the Red Tsar. The sheer corruption, venality, brutality and cyncism of the Soviet leaders portrayed was breathtaking.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 01:06:01 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 08, 2015, 11:03:02 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 10:58:52 AM
Yes, of course, theoretical rights and practical reality are two different things in authoritarian countries.  But the fact that republics could in theory leave the union without it automatically being an insurrection made a big difference.

Where did it make a big difference? That a collapsing inept SU didn't intervene when it could not had even if it wanted to? No.

the USSR was a dictatorship of thugs and gansters like pretty much all Russian regimes have been in history. Thinking its written law or pretentions amounted above the ultimate law of fist is naive in the extreme
It made a difference because there was no haggling over which parts of USSR broke up into which entities.  Republics were the units that had the right to secede, so those were the entities that became new countries.  It didn't bypass the warfare entirely, but it could've gone so much worse than it did.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 01:09:09 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on October 08, 2015, 12:58:39 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 12:54:18 PM

This was all part of their ideology.  It seems to us difficult for us to believe that the Red Terror was for the good of the people, but communists actually believed that.  It was simply a bad ideology.  They were certainly the most ruthless, violent, and extreme form of Marxism, but that is probably why they ended up in power rather then the Socialist Revolutionaries.  They honestly believed that sacrifice now would pay dividends in the future.  This was true, but the cost was so high as to make us to recoil in revulsion.  Particularity since other countries got better results with much less brutality.  Keep in mind though, that other countries payed high costs (or more often made others pay the cost), for the benefits of Industrialization.  Slave labor provided raw materials for the early textile industry, conquest brought captive markets to imperial powers and famines that could have been prevented ravaged places in Europe, Asia and Africa due indifferent governments.

You can make the same argument that the fascists of roughly the same era really believed their policies were best for the volk.

Both groups were made up of mean "losers" of society who were rather brutal in keeping themselves in power once they grabbed it.

I certainly believe that they believed in what they were doing.  There is a long tradition of looking for "psychological" reasons for the great crimes of the 20th century.  Nobody wants to believe that so many people died for so such stupid things.  Somehow people are comforted by the idea that these great criminals acted because of some character defect: Greed, or Sexual dysfunction or chronic shyness, or whatever.  I guess we can at least relate to this.  But the sad fact is that people like Stalin killed people because he really believed that it was the for the best of their country.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 01:15:23 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 01:09:09 PM
I guess we can at least relate to this.  But the sad fact is that people like Stalin killed people because he really believed that it was the for the best of their country.
Agreed.  Stalin was the ruthless CEO of a restructuring company, who had to make some difficult decisions and survive office politics.  Only the company was an entire country, and getting fired or laid off meant something different.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 01:19:25 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 01:09:09 PM


I certainly believe that they believed in what they were doing.  There is a long tradition of looking for "psychological" reasons for the great crimes of the 20th century.  Nobody wants to believe that so many people died for so such stupid things.  Somehow people are comforted by the idea that these great criminals acted because of some character defect: Greed, or Sexual dysfunction or chronic shyness, or whatever.  I guess we can at least relate to this.  But the sad fact is that people like Stalin killed people because he really believed that it was the for the best of their country.

Only if you define "best for their country" as "keeping himself in power".

If you read how Stalin killed those around him, it is pretty clear he did it to remove potential rivals and to terrorize those who remained, quite regardless of how that would screw up the country. This proved to be a problem initially when it came to the war - being a craven lickspittle, as it turns out, is not a good prescription for being a good general ... so Stalin had to ease up (he made sure to purge his successful generals after the war was over, though).

Ditto with massacring people generally. Often the point of terror was to create terror, and to ensure that others were implicated in the process and so to destroy their capacity to oppose the regime. Example: establishing "quotas" of people to liquidate (that is, the nember to kill was decided in advance; the alleged crimes were determined afterwards!). 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 01:22:41 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 01:19:25 PM
Only if you define "best for their country" as "keeping himself in power".
One doesn't prevent the other, even if these two things come in conflict.  You can have a vision that you really want to implement, and have zero patience for those who disagree (not to mention those who you suspect may plot to take your job).  Yes, being heavy-handed like that in office politics almost always makes the organization less effective, but that doesn't mean that the leader is just there for the sake of staying there.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 01:36:33 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 01:22:41 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 01:19:25 PM
Only if you define "best for their country" as "keeping himself in power".
One doesn't prevent the other, even if these two things come in conflict.  You can have a vision that you really want to implement, and have zero patience for those who disagree (not to mention those who you suspect may plot to take your job).  Yes, being heavy-handed like that in office politics almost always makes the organization less effective, but that doesn't mean that the leader is just there for the sake of staying there.

Is there any practical difference? By those criteria, there is no way to tell if a boss is self-serving. I think it is better to look at whether what he did was directly contrary to the interests of the entity he was supposed to advance - and if that is the criterion, clearly Stalin fails (even assuming that the "entity" is the state as a whole, and not its individual inhabitants).

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 01:42:15 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 01:06:01 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 08, 2015, 11:03:02 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 10:58:52 AM
Yes, of course, theoretical rights and practical reality are two different things in authoritarian countries.  But the fact that republics could in theory leave the union without it automatically being an insurrection made a big difference.

Where did it make a big difference? That a collapsing inept SU didn't intervene when it could not had even if it wanted to? No.

the USSR was a dictatorship of thugs and gansters like pretty much all Russian regimes have been in history. Thinking its written law or pretentions amounted above the ultimate law of fist is naive in the extreme
It made a difference because there was no haggling over which parts of USSR broke up into which entities.  Republics were the units that had the right to secede, so those were the entities that became new countries.  It didn't bypass the warfare entirely, but it could've gone so much worse than it did.

I agree.  The laws of the Soviet Union had long been mockery of real law because of the party.  It wasn't powers of the state that held the Soviet Union together, it was the party,  This was of course intended.  It gave the impression of constituents states having real power.  In the 1980's when the party was being weakened by Gorbachev's reforms it weakened the mortar that held the whole Union together.  When the power of the party was broken prior to the Union treaty vote power fell naturally to constituent states and their citizens and whole Union fell apart along the legal fault lines.  I think this is why it came as such a surprise when the whole thing fell apart so quickly (and why the collapse is so misunderstood today). Everyone assumed that the State was supreme when the State was simply a set of organs controlled by the party.  I don't think many in the West understood the importance of the party, and a lot of people in the Eastern Bloc didn't appreciate it's importance.  To the causal observer it seemed redundant at best, parasitical at worst.  Western military planers were often mystified that "politics" was a major component of Soviet military doctrine.  From a Western observer it seems absurd. This was the hand that guided the military.  Without it, the army was pretty much directionless as was demonstrated in the Coup attempt and the first Chechen war.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on October 08, 2015, 01:46:32 PM
Oops.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34479873

QuoteSyria crisis: Russian missiles 'fell on Iran'

Four Russian cruise missiles fired at Syria from the Caspian Sea landed in Iran, unnamed US officials say.

It was unclear whether the missiles caused any damage, they said.

Russia's defence ministry has declined to comment. On Wednesday, Russia said it had launched 26 cruise missiles at targets in north and north-west Syria.

The news came as Nato renewed assurances to defend its allies in view of the "escalation of Russian military activities" in Syria.

Nato is boosting its response forces to be able to deploy troops speedily.

Moscow denies Western accusations that it has mainly targeted opponents of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, insisting its strikes have hit the infrastructure of the so-called Islamic State (IS) and other militant groups.

IS militants have seized swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq.

The Russian air strikes had "weakened" IS, Syrian Army Chief of Staff Gen Ali Abdullah Ayoub said on Thursday, enabling the army to start a "big attack" to retake towns and villages.

Heavy fighting was reported in areas of Idlib, Hama and Latakia provinces, where a coalition of rebels that includes the Nusra Front operates.

Government-backed troops had moved into the key Ghab plain area, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fichef.bbci.co.uk%2Fnews%2F624%2Fcpsprodpb%2F1441F%2Fproduction%2F_85957928_russia2_syria_caspian_sea_624.png&hash=8bb824bda91be43c2cbeb531f781ca5eeb8c1b22)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 01:51:49 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 01:36:33 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 01:22:41 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 01:19:25 PM
Only if you define "best for their country" as "keeping himself in power".
One doesn't prevent the other, even if these two things come in conflict.  You can have a vision that you really want to implement, and have zero patience for those who disagree (not to mention those who you suspect may plot to take your job).  Yes, being heavy-handed like that in office politics almost always makes the organization less effective, but that doesn't mean that the leader is just there for the sake of staying there.

Is there any practical difference? By those criteria, there is no way to tell if a boss is self-serving. I think it is better to look at whether what he did was directly contrary to the interests of the entity he was supposed to advance - and if that is the criterion, clearly Stalin fails (even assuming that the "entity" is the state as a whole, and not its individual inhabitants).

Well yes.    We can gather that he was very sincere in his beliefs and not just a self serving bandit king by the fact he didn't rob the country blind.  He wasn't like some third world dictator and kept a vast amount of money in Swiss bank accounts.  He honestly believed that he was the only one who could save the Soviet Union.  In his old age who often treated his subordinates with contempt claiming that the Western Powers would out maneuver them once he was gone.  I don't think ever realized that he created a situation where competent successors had long ago been murdered, and his surviving minions lacked the initiative or brains to be good leaders.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 01:54:10 PM
Quote from: Syt on October 08, 2015, 01:46:32 PM
Oops.


Well they are labeled "best use by 1987".
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 01:58:13 PM
Quote from: Syt on October 08, 2015, 01:46:32 PM
Oops.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34479873

QuoteSyria crisis: Russian missiles 'fell on Iran'

Four Russian cruise missiles fired at Syria from the Caspian Sea landed in Iran, unnamed US officials say.

It was unclear whether the missiles caused any damage, they said.

Russia's defence ministry has declined to comment. On Wednesday, Russia said it had launched 26 cruise missiles at targets in north and north-west Syria.

The news came as Nato renewed assurances to defend its allies in view of the "escalation of Russian military activities" in Syria.

Nato is boosting its response forces to be able to deploy troops speedily.

Moscow denies Western accusations that it has mainly targeted opponents of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, insisting its strikes have hit the infrastructure of the so-called Islamic State (IS) and other militant groups.

IS militants have seized swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq.

The Russian air strikes had "weakened" IS, Syrian Army Chief of Staff Gen Ali Abdullah Ayoub said on Thursday, enabling the army to start a "big attack" to retake towns and villages.

Heavy fighting was reported in areas of Idlib, Hama and Latakia provinces, where a coalition of rebels that includes the Nusra Front operates.

Government-backed troops had moved into the key Ghab plain area, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fichef.bbci.co.uk%2Fnews%2F624%2Fcpsprodpb%2F1441F%2Fproduction%2F_85957928_russia2_syria_caspian_sea_624.png&hash=8bb824bda91be43c2cbeb531f781ca5eeb8c1b22)
:hmm: Iran?  They must've taken a wrong turn at Albuquerque.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 01:58:50 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 01:51:49 PM


Well yes.    We can gather that he was very sincere in his beliefs and not just a self serving bandit king by the fact he didn't rob the country blind.  He wasn't like some third world dictator and kept a vast amount of money in Swiss bank accounts.  He honestly believed that he was the only one who could save the Soviet Union.  In his old age who often treated his subordinates with contempt claiming that the Western Powers would out maneuver them once he was gone.  I don't think ever realized that he created a situation where competent successors had long ago been murdered, and his surviving minions lacked the initiative or brains to be good leaders.

Amassing a secret fortune a la third-world-dictators only makes sense if there is somewhere to flee to and enjoy one's ill-gotten gains - a French Riviera or somewhere of that sort. This possibility did not exist for Stalin. If he ever gave up (or was forced out of) power, he was a dead man, and there was nowhere on this planet he would be safe.

What's the point of piling up trinkets when he owned the whole damn empire? Moreover, it's pretty clear he was "in it" because he relished the exercise of power, not for material wealth.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 02:27:24 PM
What evidence do you have that he didn't actually believe in what he did?  He certainly said he did, and revolutionary was not exactly the natural path to power.  His ruthlessness and paranoia were already aspects of his personality long before he came to power, they were qualities he acquired by being hard scrabble revolutionary.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 02:48:36 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 02:27:24 PM
What evidence do you have that he didn't actually believe in what he did?  He certainly said he did, and revolutionary was not exactly the natural path to power.  His ruthlessness and paranoia were already aspects of his personality long before he came to power, they were qualities he acquired by being hard scrabble revolutionary.

The fact that he just invented stuff to have people killed, even though it went directly against the interests of the nation he purported to lead, stikes me as being evidence.

Obviously he's never going to *say* "I don't believe in any of this shit, I'm only out for power no matter who I kill or what I destroy". If you are waiting for such a statement, no-one would ever qualify.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 03:01:24 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 02:48:36 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 02:27:24 PM
What evidence do you have that he didn't actually believe in what he did?  He certainly said he did, and revolutionary was not exactly the natural path to power.  His ruthlessness and paranoia were already aspects of his personality long before he came to power, they were qualities he acquired by being hard scrabble revolutionary.

The fact that he just invented stuff to have people killed, even though it went directly against the interests of the nation he purported to lead, stikes me as being evidence.

Obviously he's never going to *say* "I don't believe in any of this shit, I'm only out for power no matter who I kill or what I destroy". If you are waiting for such a statement, no-one would ever qualify.
I think you're stretching it.  It is the nature of politics that it lowers the efficiency of the organization as a whole, by putting personal ambitions in conflict with organizational goals.  No matter whether the organization is a corporation or a country.  It is true that if you're a ruthless leader, your #1 goal is to stay in power regardless of what other objective it will conflict with.  That doesn't mean that there is no #2 goal.  Nothing that you mentioned really counters the theme that Stalin was a leader with a vision and a particularly destructive approach to boardroom politics.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 08, 2015, 03:32:02 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 10:02:59 AM
  It was really conceptualized as a mutually-beneficial union and written as such, which is why it all so easily fell apart when republics wanted out.  They actually had the right to do it.

It fell apart because Gorby ended the Party's monopoly on power.  Otherwise the "republics wanting out" would have been meaningless, because the Party decided what the republics wanted or didn't want.  The USSR constitution was written to permit exit because the political structure gave the Party absolute control over what happened anyway, so why not make it look nice and consensual.

EDIT; sorry slow computer didn't see the prior comments on this
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 04:19:24 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 03:01:24 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 02:48:36 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 02:27:24 PM
What evidence do you have that he didn't actually believe in what he did?  He certainly said he did, and revolutionary was not exactly the natural path to power.  His ruthlessness and paranoia were already aspects of his personality long before he came to power, they were qualities he acquired by being hard scrabble revolutionary.

The fact that he just invented stuff to have people killed, even though it went directly against the interests of the nation he purported to lead, stikes me as being evidence.

Obviously he's never going to *say* "I don't believe in any of this shit, I'm only out for power no matter who I kill or what I destroy". If you are waiting for such a statement, no-one would ever qualify.
I think you're stretching it.  It is the nature of politics that it lowers the efficiency of the organization as a whole, by putting personal ambitions in conflict with organizational goals.  No matter whether the organization is a corporation or a country.  It is true that if you're a ruthless leader, your #1 goal is to stay in power regardless of what other objective it will conflict with.  That doesn't mean that there is no #2 goal.  Nothing that you mentioned really counters the theme that Stalin was a leader with a vision and a particularly destructive approach to boardroom politics.

There is no evidence that his "vision" had anything in common with Communism-as-benefiting-humanity other than the form, and considerable evidence that it did not.

The problem with the POV you and Raz are proposing, is that it is non-disprovable: no amount of rutheless self-serving actions can ever prove that the goals the leader is paying lip-service to aren't ones he "really" holds dearly, provided he takes the elementary precaution of not writing out a full confession. However, we aren't a court of law, or a scientific experiment, and we are allowed to draw reasonable inferences from the evidence. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 04:33:58 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 02:48:36 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 02:27:24 PM
What evidence do you have that he didn't actually believe in what he did?  He certainly said he did, and revolutionary was not exactly the natural path to power.  His ruthlessness and paranoia were already aspects of his personality long before he came to power, they were qualities he acquired by being hard scrabble revolutionary.

The fact that he just invented stuff to have people killed, even though it went directly against the interests of the nation he purported to lead, stikes me as being evidence.

Obviously he's never going to *say* "I don't believe in any of this shit, I'm only out for power no matter who I kill or what I destroy". If you are waiting for such a statement, no-one would ever qualify.

That's lousy evidence, since he wouldn't have considered killing these people as weakening the nation.  In fact, he saw it as strengthening it.  These people were traitors and purging traitors doesn't weaken the nation.  Remember, he had people killed that he believed were double agents when he was in Georgia as a rabble-rouser before WWI.  Often he would just walk into a room and and upon meeting a someone declare he was a czarist spy and have him killed.  That he and the rest of the communists would kill vast numbers of people after they got into power is no surprise.  That he identified people who were his person enemies as enemies of the state is a sign of megalomania not cynicism.  I think you are far to influenced by Trotsky's critique of Stalin as a power hungry bureaucrat who hijacked the Revolution.  Stalin is a natural continuation of Lenin.  Lenin was a true believer and his actions precipitated Stalin's.  Terror, famine and murder were all tools of the early Bolsheviks.  That these tools would be used by Stalin to against other party members to consolidate leadership shouldn't have surprised anyone.  It is of no coincidence that this pattern of tools used against Revolutionary enemies was frequently used to purify the Revolutionaries own ranks is often repeated.  It happened in France, it happened in Germany, it happened in China.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 04:47:36 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 04:33:58 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 02:48:36 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 02:27:24 PM
What evidence do you have that he didn't actually believe in what he did?  He certainly said he did, and revolutionary was not exactly the natural path to power.  His ruthlessness and paranoia were already aspects of his personality long before he came to power, they were qualities he acquired by being hard scrabble revolutionary.

The fact that he just invented stuff to have people killed, even though it went directly against the interests of the nation he purported to lead, stikes me as being evidence.

Obviously he's never going to *say* "I don't believe in any of this shit, I'm only out for power no matter who I kill or what I destroy". If you are waiting for such a statement, no-one would ever qualify.

That's lousy evidence, since he wouldn't have considered killing these people as weakening the nation.  In fact, he saw it as strengthening it.  These people were traitors and purging traitors doesn't weaken the nation. 

That's provably untrue. For example, he "purged" military figures who were competent to spread terror, then had the ones still alive "unpurged" and brought back when it proved necessary in WW2. If he genuinely thought these guys were guilty of spying or whatever, that would make no sense. He himself quite evidently knew that purging people was, in fact, weakening the nation - and he didn't care (unless and until the nation grew so weak its fall to a rutheless enemy risked him personally).

It is pretty obvious to anyone reading about the Great Terror that Stalin had no actual belief in the literal truth of the charges he brought against (or had brought against) people. If you read the book I mentioned, it goes into great detail about how he had evidence faked up against people on his orders - death and life had nothing to do with actually being "traitors" or "enemies", or even to Stalin actually thinking they were. He had people killed because it suited him, and simply on general principles, it kept everyone unsettled and avoided any alternative power base forming.

Here's one test: if Stalin was a rutheless man who actually cared about the nation he led, wouldn't he have made any provision for the succession? Well, no, he didn't. In fact, he did on occasion 'tag' someone as a possible successor - which was usually a sign they were going to be purged.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 05:02:53 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 04:19:24 PM

There is no evidence that his "vision" had anything in common with Communism-as-benefiting-humanity other than the form, and considerable evidence that it did not.

The problem with the POV you and Raz are proposing, is that it is non-disprovable: no amount of rutheless self-serving actions can ever prove that the goals the leader is paying lip-service to aren't ones he "really" holds dearly, provided he takes the elementary precaution of not writing out a full confession. However, we aren't a court of law, or a scientific experiment, and we are allowed to draw reasonable inferences from the evidence.

I'm not certain what you are talking about in your first sentence.  There is considerable evidence that what he was doing was inline with Communist beliefs.  There is evidence that it doesn't benefit people because we know that this bullshit won't work.  We don't believe in Marxism, so the behavior seems arbitrary and counterproductive.  If he was just in it for the power why continue along a path that is obviously not working as planned?  Even Lenin was less dogmatic.

The problem with your theory is that it doesn't adequately explain Stalin's actions.  Why have poets shot?  It's hard to see how that personally helps him.  Why set up the international brigades in Spain only to execute 10% of them?  Why refuse to trade your own captured son back?  Why not set up his family to rule after his death like so many strongmen?  His actions only really make sense in the context of his revolutionary past and his absolute dedication to Marxist ideology.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: alfred russel on October 08, 2015, 05:03:49 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 01:15:23 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 01:09:09 PM
I guess we can at least relate to this.  But the sad fact is that people like Stalin killed people because he really believed that it was the for the best of their country.
Agreed.  Stalin was the ruthless CEO of a restructuring company, who had to make some difficult decisions and survive office politics.  Only the company was an entire country, and getting fired or laid off meant something different.

I think the corporate analogy is a good one, but don't agree with Raz.

In any corporate, from mid level to senior management, everyone will say they believe in the company vision and goals, that they are totally behind the company's mission, etc. I actually do believe most of them. But good luck finding managers willing to make decisions in the interest of the Company when it will negatively impact their own bonus. For a lot of people caring about the Company isn't just lip service--they really do care, but in the end they are really there for personal advancement.

There is a reason so many former communist leaders turned to nationalism or in some other way disavowed communism when communism went out of vogue.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 05:23:12 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 04:47:36 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 04:33:58 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 02:48:36 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 02:27:24 PM
What evidence do you have that he didn't actually believe in what he did?  He certainly said he did, and revolutionary was not exactly the natural path to power.  His ruthlessness and paranoia were already aspects of his personality long before he came to power, they were qualities he acquired by being hard scrabble revolutionary.

The fact that he just invented stuff to have people killed, even though it went directly against the interests of the nation he purported to lead, stikes me as being evidence.

Obviously he's never going to *say* "I don't believe in any of this shit, I'm only out for power no matter who I kill or what I destroy". If you are waiting for such a statement, no-one would ever qualify.

That's lousy evidence, since he wouldn't have considered killing these people as weakening the nation.  In fact, he saw it as strengthening it.  These people were traitors and purging traitors doesn't weaken the nation. 

That's provably untrue. For example, he "purged" military figures who were competent to spread terror, then had the ones still alive "unpurged" and brought back when it proved necessary in WW2. If he genuinely thought these guys were guilty of spying or whatever, that would make no sense. He himself quite evidently knew that purging people was, in fact, weakening the nation - and he didn't care (unless and until the nation grew so weak its fall to a rutheless enemy risked him personally).

It is pretty obvious to anyone reading about the Great Terror that Stalin had no actual belief in the literal truth of the charges he brought against (or had brought against) people. If you read the book I mentioned, it goes into great detail about how he had evidence faked up against people on his orders - death and life had nothing to do with actually being "traitors" or "enemies", or even to Stalin actually thinking they were. He had people killed because it suited him, and simply on general principles, it kept everyone unsettled and avoided any alternative power base forming.

Here's one test: if Stalin was a rutheless man who actually cared about the nation he led, wouldn't he have made any provision for the succession? Well, no, he didn't. In fact, he did on occasion 'tag' someone as a possible successor - which was usually a sign they were going to be purged.

He did tag someone for his succession. Zhdanov.  Zhdanov simply died before Stalin did.  Stalin didn't kill him (well not directly, the man drank himself to death.  You probably would to if Stalin was your boss).  You misunderstand the purpose of the terror.  The purpose of the Terror was to keep the revolution alive, motivate the workers and peasants and terrify class enemies.  He did not invent this.  It had ideological and historical precedents.  The Bolsheviks planned to use indiscriminate terror prior to coming to power.  That innocent people would die didn't matter.  Evidence didn't matter.   Remember the Bolsheviks were a "vanguard party", not a mass party.  They understood that if they seized control that most people wouldn't be with them.  The solution was to keep the country pacified with indiscriminate killings while they set up a new government/ Stalin would use this previously established tool as he moved into collectivization.  The Bolsheviks saw themselves as a continuation of the French Revolution.  The idea of the Terror has it's roots there as does the purge of the military.  The Reds were all to aware that French Republic died because of a military Coup.  Concern over potential "Bonapartists", resulted in the party treating the military as class enemies and thus subject to the terror.  It was typical Bolshevik heavy handedness.  Hitler managed to subject the military to his will by killing only a few hundred men and a little blackmail.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 05:28:32 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 08, 2015, 03:32:02 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 10:02:59 AM
  It was really conceptualized as a mutually-beneficial union and written as such, which is why it all so easily fell apart when republics wanted out.  They actually had the right to do it.

It fell apart because Gorby ended the Party's monopoly on power.  Otherwise the "republics wanting out" would have been meaningless, because the Party decided what the republics wanted or didn't want.  The USSR constitution was written to permit exit because the political structure gave the Party absolute control over what happened anyway, so why not make it look nice and consensual.

EDIT; sorry slow computer didn't see the prior comments on this

I guess that means you agree with me.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 05:31:54 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 05:02:53 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 04:19:24 PM

There is no evidence that his "vision" had anything in common with Communism-as-benefiting-humanity other than the form, and considerable evidence that it did not.

The problem with the POV you and Raz are proposing, is that it is non-disprovable: no amount of rutheless self-serving actions can ever prove that the goals the leader is paying lip-service to aren't ones he "really" holds dearly, provided he takes the elementary precaution of not writing out a full confession. However, we aren't a court of law, or a scientific experiment, and we are allowed to draw reasonable inferences from the evidence.

I'm not certain what you are talking about in your first sentence.  There is considerable evidence that what he was doing was inline with Communist beliefs.  There is evidence that it doesn't benefit people because we know that this bullshit won't work.  We don't believe in Marxism, so the behavior seems arbitrary and counterproductive.  If he was just in it for the power why continue along a path that is obviously not working as planned?  Even Lenin was less dogmatic.

The problem with your theory is that it doesn't adequately explain Stalin's actions.  Why have poets shot?  It's hard to see how that personally helps him.  Why set up the international brigades in Spain only to execute 10% of them?  Why refuse to trade your own captured son back?  Why not set up his family to rule after his death like so many strongmen?  His actions only really make sense in the context of his revolutionary past and his absolute dedication to Marxist ideology.

Having poets shot helps to spread terror and conformity. If he personally enjoyed a poet or writer, BTW, they weren't shot, no matter how "ideologically unsound" - that's why Bulgakov (who wrote "The Master and Margarita") survived: Stalin enjoyed one of his plays, saw it 15 times, and so protected him from being liquidated even though he could not be less communist. Another point against the "sincere believer" theory.

QuoteWhen one of Moscow's theatre directors severely criticised Bulgakov, Stalin personally protected him, saying that a writer of Bulgakov's quality was above "party words" like "left" and "right".[12] Stalin found work for the playwright at a small Moscow theatre, and next the Moscow Art Theatre (MAT). On October 5, 1926, Days of the Turbins, the play which continued the theme of The White Guard (the fate of Russian intellectuals and officers of the Tsarist Army caught up in revolution and Civil war)[8] was premièred at the MAT[9] Stalin liked it very much and reportedly saw it at least 15 times.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Bulgakov

As for his refusal to help his own family - he was, apparently, a person with little empathy for others: he simply didn't care that much, even for (apparently) close friends and family. He cared only for himself. His surviving son, for example, was terrified of him, and his surviving daughter alienated from him; he occasionally had formerly close friends killed for little reason. These are actions consistent with being a psychopath - inability to have empathy, superficial glibness and charm (Stalin was, reputedly, very charming and charismatic in person), etc.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 05:42:58 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 05:23:12 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 04:47:36 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 04:33:58 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 02:48:36 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 02:27:24 PM
What evidence do you have that he didn't actually believe in what he did?  He certainly said he did, and revolutionary was not exactly the natural path to power.  His ruthlessness and paranoia were already aspects of his personality long before he came to power, they were qualities he acquired by being hard scrabble revolutionary.

The fact that he just invented stuff to have people killed, even though it went directly against the interests of the nation he purported to lead, stikes me as being evidence.

Obviously he's never going to *say* "I don't believe in any of this shit, I'm only out for power no matter who I kill or what I destroy". If you are waiting for such a statement, no-one would ever qualify.

That's lousy evidence, since he wouldn't have considered killing these people as weakening the nation.  In fact, he saw it as strengthening it.  These people were traitors and purging traitors doesn't weaken the nation. 

That's provably untrue. For example, he "purged" military figures who were competent to spread terror, then had the ones still alive "unpurged" and brought back when it proved necessary in WW2. If he genuinely thought these guys were guilty of spying or whatever, that would make no sense. He himself quite evidently knew that purging people was, in fact, weakening the nation - and he didn't care (unless and until the nation grew so weak its fall to a rutheless enemy risked him personally).

It is pretty obvious to anyone reading about the Great Terror that Stalin had no actual belief in the literal truth of the charges he brought against (or had brought against) people. If you read the book I mentioned, it goes into great detail about how he had evidence faked up against people on his orders - death and life had nothing to do with actually being "traitors" or "enemies", or even to Stalin actually thinking they were. He had people killed because it suited him, and simply on general principles, it kept everyone unsettled and avoided any alternative power base forming.

Here's one test: if Stalin was a rutheless man who actually cared about the nation he led, wouldn't he have made any provision for the succession? Well, no, he didn't. In fact, he did on occasion 'tag' someone as a possible successor - which was usually a sign they were going to be purged.

He did tag someone for his succession. Zhdanov.  Zhdanov simply died before Stalin did.  Stalin didn't kill him (well not directly, the man drank himself to death.  You probably would to if Stalin was your boss).  You misunderstand the purpose of the terror.  The purpose of the Terror was to keep the revolution alive, motivate the workers and peasants and terrify class enemies.  He did not invent this.  It had ideological and historical precedents.  The Bolsheviks planned to use indiscriminate terror prior to coming to power.  That innocent people would die didn't matter.  Evidence didn't matter.   Remember the Bolsheviks were a "vanguard party", not a mass party.  They understood that if they seized control that most people wouldn't be with them.  The solution was to keep the country pacified with indiscriminate killings while they set up a new government/ Stalin would use this previously established tool as he moved into collectivization.  The Bolsheviks saw themselves as a continuation of the French Revolution.  The idea of the Terror has it's roots there as does the purge of the military.  The Reds were all to aware that French Republic died because of a military Coup.  Concern over potential "Bonapartists", resulted in the party treating the military as class enemies and thus subject to the terror.  It was typical Bolshevik heavy handedness.  Hitler managed to subject the military to his will by killing only a few hundred men and a little blackmail.

Zhdanov wasn't a serious "successor", as he was well known to be in incredibly bad health. Stalin expected to outlive him (and was right).

My point: that the system set up by the Bolshiveks enabled the party to be taken over by people who did not give a shit about Communism, other than as a route to power. Stalin was one such, but so were many of his close henchmen - look, for example, at Beria. Sexual predator and torturer, he very nearly replaced Stalin.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: LaCroix on October 08, 2015, 06:35:42 PM
yeah, i don't see how any reading could suggest stalin was a visionary who did what he did for the good of the nation. he very clearly was obsessed with himself. exploits to enlarge the empire? his exploits, not USSR's exploits.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 06:50:19 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 05:31:54 PM
These are actions consistent with being a psychopath - inability to have empathy, superficial glibness and charm (Stalin was, reputedly, very charming and charismatic in person), etc.
:huh: No he wasn't.  He drew Lenin's ire because he cursed out Lenin's wife.  He was the opposite of charming.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 08, 2015, 06:54:10 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 05:28:32 PM

I guess that means you agree with me.

Yes
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 06:56:17 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 05:42:58 PM
My point: that the system set up by the Bolshiveks enabled the party to be taken over by people who did not give a shit about Communism, other than as a route to power. Stalin was one such, but so were many of his close henchmen - look, for example, at Beria. Sexual predator and torturer, he very nearly replaced Stalin.
What does one have to do with the other?  You can't be a sexual predator and a communist?

Seriously, Malthus, you sound like someone who just recently finished a book you really liked, and now enthusiastically adopt every single thing written by one author in one book as the complete truth.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: alfred russel on October 08, 2015, 07:37:28 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 06:56:17 PM

Seriously, Malthus, you sound like someone who just recently finished a book you really liked, and now enthusiastically adopt every single thing written by one author in one book as the complete truth.

Would you say "the complete gospel truth"?  :hmm:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 08, 2015, 07:40:29 PM
Well, he used to pretend to be Trotskist to get in a girl's pants.  I think he's remembering stuff he read in that part of his life because this is the Trotsky critique of Stalin.  The thing is, we actually have an example of a Soviet leader who was a cynic and didn't really care that much about Marxism.  Brezhnev.  Brezhnev was no saint, but he wasn't driven by ideological fervor to murder large number of people, nor was he interested in the ill conceived reform schemes of Khrushchev or Gorbachev.  As a result Soviet citizens were much safer under his corrupt and self-serving regime.  It was really only under a government where the leader really believed in Communism and wanted to make it work were people in real trouble.  Under Brezhnev the Soviet Union became a Banana Republic, and it was the best thing that could have happened for the people.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: frunk on October 08, 2015, 07:49:31 PM
I'm kind of surprised by all this Stalin love.  He seems exactly like every other murderous tinpot dictator with the only differences being the size of the country that he ruled, he got invaded by another murderous dictator and he got there first.

Screw up the country badly to make sure he stays in charge - check
Create a secretive, insular inner circle controlled by him - check
Terrorize his own population with no regard for their welfare - check
Cult of Personality - check
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 09, 2015, 04:07:05 AM
Are you still arguing about Stalin's ideological pureness? Really? The guy who sistematically and purposefully decimated and nearly destroyed the educated classes of his country? Can you honestly believe he gave a rat's ass about the long term benefits for Russia, let alone the USSR? Incredible
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: dps on October 09, 2015, 04:07:06 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 05:42:58 PM

My point: that the system set up by the Bolshiveks enabled the party to be taken over by people who did not give a shit about Communism, other than as a route to power. Stalin was one such, but so were many of his close henchmen - look, for example, at Beria. Sexual predator and torturer, he very nearly replaced Stalin.

Given that Stalin was a Communist before being one was in an way an obvious path to power, I find the suggestion that he didn't ideologically believe in Communism bizarre.  That's not to say that once he was in a position to succeed Lenin he didn't put his own interests first.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 09, 2015, 04:10:09 AM
:frusty:

One of the most brutally self-serving paranoid power-hungry psychopath in history, and people still after 60 years byuing the bullshit that he had anything do with ideology.

I mean Raz is just being Raz for being Raz's sake, but the rest of you? I expected better.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: dps on October 09, 2015, 04:52:28 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 09, 2015, 04:10:09 AM
:frusty:

One of the most brutally self-serving paranoid power-hungry psychopath in history, and people still after 60 years byuing the bullshit that he had anything do with ideology.

I mean Raz is just being Raz for being Raz's sake, but the rest of you? I expected better.

Being a brutal, power-hungry, self serving psychopath and being a Communist are hardly mutually exclusive.  I
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 09, 2015, 06:22:22 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 09, 2015, 04:10:09 AM
:frusty:

One of the most brutally self-serving paranoid power-hungry psychopath in history, and people still after 60 years byuing the bullshit that he had anything do with ideology.

I mean Raz is just being Raz for being Raz's sake, but the rest of you? I expected better.

Go eat a beet.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 09, 2015, 07:29:53 AM
Quote from: dps on October 09, 2015, 04:52:28 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 09, 2015, 04:10:09 AM
:frusty:

One of the most brutally self-serving paranoid power-hungry psychopath in history, and people still after 60 years byuing the bullshit that he had anything do with ideology.

I mean Raz is just being Raz for being Raz's sake, but the rest of you? I expected better.

Being a brutal, power-hungry, self serving psychopath and being a Communist are hardly mutually exclusive.  I
Seriously, I don't get this flipout.  The history is full of revolutionaries whose brutality in remaking their society and protecting their power is exceptional, and no doubt counterproductive.  So fucking what?  What I still don't get from Malthus and Hayek is how that makes your ideology disappear.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 07:40:15 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on October 08, 2015, 12:34:05 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 08, 2015, 10:31:35 AM
Oh, I don't at all think of the USSR as Russia plus some pissed off colonies. Indeed, I actually think that Communism was largely attempted in basically "good faith". An abject failure, maybe even so abject as to be unfair to the basic ideals of Communism in fact, but still I think the people who ran the USSR, within the normal bounds of human shittiness, did so with the idea that what they were doing was beneficial to those involved, including the SSRs.


I don't think the implementation of Communism qualifies as "good faith" at all. Bolsheviks were extremists who managed to gain power through force in very turbulent times. Once in power, the Bolsheviks established themselves through violence, terror, and propaganda. I guess you can argue Lenin was a genuine altruist who believed rough measures were justified to establish the greater good of communism. That is a far tougher argument for Stalin, who was also there from the start.

I don't look at the USSR and Communism as being defined by the worst of the people who rammed it into power though, or even those who kept it in power.

Stalin was a monster of course, and certainly plenty of the people who spearheaded Communism did so for purely personal reasons. But I don't judge the overall political structure based on the actions of those people.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 07:42:04 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 09, 2015, 04:07:05 AM
Are you still arguing about Stalin's ideological pureness? Really? The guy who sistematically and purposefully decimated and nearly destroyed the educated classes of his country? Can you honestly believe he gave a rat's ass about the long term benefits for Russia, let alone the USSR? Incredible

I hope this isn't aimed at me...?

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 07:42:47 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 09, 2015, 04:10:09 AM
:frusty:

One of the most brutally self-serving paranoid power-hungry psychopath in history, and people still after 60 years byuing the bullshit that he had anything do with ideology.

I mean Raz is just being Raz for being Raz's sake, but the rest of you? I expected better.

Holy shit, how did anyone go from my post to an endorsement of fucking Stalin???
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 09, 2015, 07:48:34 AM
I think people here are confusing "helping the people", with "being nice".  The Bolsheviks didn't believe that the road to Communism was strewn with kind words and happy thoughts.  They came into power believing in the necessity for terror and murder.  If 10% of the population died creating Utopia then that was more then acceptable.  I understand why Tamas can't comprehend it.  Tamas superficially adheres to a selfish ideology, and only so far as it benefits him.  Despite his protested love of liberty he has no problem when "moral busybodies" tyrannize people he doesn't like, doesn't care about, or for his benefit.  The idea that anyone would value something beyond themselves is totally alien to him.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 09, 2015, 07:53:35 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 09, 2015, 07:29:53 AM
Quote from: dps on October 09, 2015, 04:52:28 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 09, 2015, 04:10:09 AM
:frusty:

One of the most brutally self-serving paranoid power-hungry psychopath in history, and people still after 60 years byuing the bullshit that he had anything do with ideology.

I mean Raz is just being Raz for being Raz's sake, but the rest of you? I expected better.

Being a brutal, power-hungry, self serving psychopath and being a Communist are hardly mutually exclusive.  I
Seriously, I don't get this flipout.  The history is full of revolutionaries whose brutality in remaking their society and protecting their power is exceptional, and no doubt counterproductive.  So fucking what?  What I still don't get from Malthus and Hayek is how that makes your ideology disappear.

He didn't want to remake society. He wanted to get and keep power. Nothing else mattered. This is pretty obvious.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 09, 2015, 07:54:07 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 07:42:47 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 09, 2015, 04:10:09 AM
:frusty:

One of the most brutally self-serving paranoid power-hungry psychopath in history, and people still after 60 years byuing the bullshit that he had anything do with ideology.

I mean Raz is just being Raz for being Raz's sake, but the rest of you? I expected better.

Holy shit, how did anyone go from my post to an endorsement of fucking Stalin???

How did YOU go from assuming I was aiming at your post in particular (which I wasn't, BTW) to being sure about it? :P
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 08:01:03 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 06:50:19 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 05:31:54 PM
These are actions consistent with being a psychopath - inability to have empathy, superficial glibness and charm (Stalin was, reputedly, very charming and charismatic in person), etc.
:huh: No he wasn't.  He drew Lenin's ire because he cursed out Lenin's wife.  He was the opposite of charming.

:huh: Being rude to Lenin's wife means he can't possibly have been superficially charismatic?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 08:03:30 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 06:56:17 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 05:42:58 PM
My point: that the system set up by the Bolshiveks enabled the party to be taken over by people who did not give a shit about Communism, other than as a route to power. Stalin was one such, but so were many of his close henchmen - look, for example, at Beria. Sexual predator and torturer, he very nearly replaced Stalin.
What does one have to do with the other?  You can't be a sexual predator and a communist?

Seriously, Malthus, you sound like someone who just recently finished a book you really liked, and now enthusiastically adopt every single thing written by one author in one book as the complete truth.

:huh: You think Beria was a convinced ideological communist, who committed his crimes because he loved the people?

The opposite impression doesn't come from "one book", but from, well, everything ever written about him.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: LaCroix on October 09, 2015, 08:04:54 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 09, 2015, 07:29:53 AMSeriously, I don't get this flipout.  The history is full of revolutionaries whose brutality in remaking their society and protecting their power is exceptional, and no doubt counterproductive.  So fucking what?  What I still don't get from Malthus and Hayek is how that makes your ideology disappear.

and those people killed to promote the ideology. just because there are examples throughout history of people killing for ideological reasons doesn't prove stalin killed for ideological reasons. i don't think malthus/hayek are saying ideology disappears when mass murder occurs. stalin isn't being used an example to argue a wider proposition. rather, the sole focus is on stalin.

molotov is someone who appears to have truly believed in communism; he slept peacefully at night because he felt the murders he was responsible for were to promote communism. stalin, however, comes across as a paranoid sociopath/narcissist/whatever who worked his way into power and did everything he could to remain in power. at the end of the day, when one acts and then reflects on why he acted, actual visionaries will create excuses that the ideological objectives required it. no reading i've ever seen suggests stalin thought to himself, "i did this for the sake of communism." no, it was to stay in power. the focus was entirely on him, not communism.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 08:07:54 AM
I don't see how Stalin, then, even got into the discussion.

He was a monster, and talking about what a monster he was is boring - there isn't anyone arguing that he was really a pretty swell guy.

This over-focus on individuals as defining an organization is lazy thinking.

We do this in corporate America as well, where we have huge companies (like HP as a perfect example) and we conclude that their success or failure is mostly, if not completely, driven by the CEO. In reality, of course, they succeed or fail based on the aggregate of a huge number of people, processes, technology, and markets. But that is complicated, so instead we say "Carly destroyed HP!".

The USSR had millions of people in it, and probably hundreds of thousands in the aggregate who controlled how it ran. The bulk of those people probably didn't care one way or another, but overall they likely believed in the basics of what their ideology was trying to do, just like your basic government employee in the US is just doing their job, but still fundamentally believes that democracy is better that autocracy, and capitalism is better than socialism, and acts largely accordingly (along with a lot of congruent laws, cultural norms, policies, etc., etc). Therefore we can basically refer to the US as a western liberal capitalist society, even if the details might change based on who is in charge at the top, and at multiple level throughout the hierarchy.

And you can talk about this aggregate political and economic ideology absent the personalities who might have brought it into power, and their motivations. You don't have to of course, but you can, and it isn't really the point that Stalin was a dictatorial monster of the first order when we talk about whether the entirety of the Soviet communist experience was attempted in good faith overall.

Honestly, talking about how terrible Stalin was? Isn't that rather boring?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: LaCroix on October 09, 2015, 08:10:45 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 08:07:54 AMThis over-focus on individuals as defining an organization is lazy thinking.

i don't think anyone is saying a single individual always defines an organization. but, i hope you're not saying this never occurs.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 08:14:21 AM
Quote from: dps on October 09, 2015, 04:07:06 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 05:42:58 PM

My point: that the system set up by the Bolshiveks enabled the party to be taken over by people who did not give a shit about Communism, other than as a route to power. Stalin was one such, but so were many of his close henchmen - look, for example, at Beria. Sexual predator and torturer, he very nearly replaced Stalin.

Given that Stalin was a Communist before being one was in an way an obvious path to power, I find the suggestion that he didn't ideologically believe in Communism bizarre.  That's not to say that once he was in a position to succeed Lenin he didn't put his own interests first.

Stalin was rumoured to also have been a Tsarist agent, though no hard evidence has ever emerged that this was true.

Be that as it may, lots of people were drawn to the revolutionary movements out of motives other than ideological conviction - for some, the chance at excitement is enough. For example, the young Stalin originally used the alias "Koba", which was the Georgian equivalent of Robin Hood, and set ot to ... rob banks for the cause. And, possibly, work as a double agent.

For myself, I judge the sincerity of people by what they do *after* they achieve power - and in the case of Stalin, it is obvious he never gave a toss about the good of the "people", even in the abstract sense of what was good for the state entity (except to the extent it served himself). He was just another brutal warlord, cynically *manipulating* the idealistic impulses of convinced Communist believers for his own benefit - the power of which can be seen by the fact that, as demonstrated in this thread, some people to this day *still*, despite all evidence to thre contrary, believe in his ideological bona fides.   
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 08:15:57 AM
Quote from: LaCroix on October 09, 2015, 08:10:45 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 08:07:54 AMThis over-focus on individuals as defining an organization is lazy thinking.

i don't think anyone is saying a single individual always defines an organization. but, i hope you're not saying this never occurs.

I think it does occur, certainly - your Steve Jobs and such are the exceptions though, and the organizations they create often outlive them.

But even the Stalin's of the world still have to get a lot of other people to go along with them, and not all of them do so from the direct threat of violence. Many do so because they believe in what the leader is selling, even if the leader could not care less. The Soviet Union had an ideology outside Stalin's personal ideology of "Kill everyone who might be a threat", and focuses strictly on Stalin is missing the point I was trying to make. The entire discussion, IMO, since that came up is basically a red herring. It feels like (and maybe I am wrong about this) people are so hung up on making sure everyone really, really hates Stalin that any discussion of the USSR that doesn't start and end with his monstrousness is interpreted as some kind of whitewashing of Stalin.

Again, Staling was a piece of shit. Yawn.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 08:23:58 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 08:07:54 AM
I don't see how Stalin, then, even got into the discussion.

He was a monster, and talking about what a monster he was is boring - there isn't anyone arguing that he was really a pretty swell guy.

This over-focus on individuals as defining an organization is lazy thinking.

We do this in corporate America as well, where we have huge companies (like HP as a perfect example) and we conclude that their success or failure is mostly, if not completely, driven by the CEO. In reality, of course, they succeed or fail based on the aggregate of a huge number of people, processes, technology, and markets. But that is complicated, so instead we say "Carly destroyed HP!".

The USSR had millions of people in it, and probably hundreds of thousands in the aggregate who controlled how it ran. The bulk of those people probably didn't care one way or another, but overall they likely believed in the basics of what their ideology was trying to do, just like your basic government employee in the US is just doing their job, but still fundamentally believes that democracy is better that autocracy, and capitalism is better than socialism, and acts largely accordingly (along with a lot of congruent laws, cultural norms, policies, etc., etc). Therefore we can basically refer to the US as a western liberal capitalist society, even if the details might change based on who is in charge at the top, and at multiple level throughout the hierarchy.

And you can talk about this aggregate political and economic ideology absent the personalities who might have brought it into power, and their motivations. You don't have to of course, but you can, and it isn't really the point that Stalin was a dictatorial monster of the first order when we talk about whether the entirety of the Soviet communist experience was attempted in good faith overall.

Honestly, talking about how terrible Stalin was? Isn't that rather boring?

We aren't talking about how bad Stalin was - I think everyone agrees he was bad - but on what motivated him.

In some cases I agree that would be less relevant, but not in the case of the Soviet system, which under Stalin raised centrailized power and decision-making to such a degree it became its defining characteristic.

If we are talking about the impact of Stalin, it is because, for better or worse (well, for worse, clearly  ;) ) Stalin deliberately defined how the system actually functioned, in a way that individual leaders in say a democratic system could not dream of doing. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 09, 2015, 08:26:25 AM
The problem with the idea that Stalin was really just out for himself is that it feeds into the old narrative that Stalin was "uniquely bad".  This was a widely held belief amongst the far left during the Cold War.  Sadly it was not true.  Stalin walked the road of Lenin, the bad things done by Stalin were the bad things that Lenin did.  And not only did Lenin do these bad things, he talked about doing them before he came into power.  So for Stalin's crimes to be self-serving acts of protecting his own power, then Lenin must also be guilty of self-serving acts of protecting his own power, and he must be guilty of planning these acts before he even came into power, which is an enormous stretch.  Lenin plotting to protect his own position (and writing about it) as head of the Soviet Union before the Soviet Union existed when Lenin was an exile is simply absurd.  Things like the Red Terror and Collectivization were part of Leninist theory, so when Leninists perpetrate acts deemed necessary by their own ideology, it seems reasonable to think they were guided by their ideology in perpetrating these acts.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 08:29:48 AM
Well, anyway you cut it seems clear that you can't talk about the USSR without it just turning into STALINSTALINSTALIN. Yawn.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 09, 2015, 08:33:26 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 08:29:48 AM
Well, anyway you cut it seems clear that you can't talk about the USSR without it just turning into STALINSTALINSTALIN. Yawn.

You should drink a little coffee.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 08:34:31 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2015, 08:26:25 AM
The problem with the idea that Stalin was really just out for himself is that it feeds into the old narrative that Stalin was "uniquely bad".  This was a widely held belief amongst the far left during the Cold War.  Sadly it was not true.  Stalin walked the road of Lenin, the bad things done by Stalin were the bad things that Lenin did.  And not only did Lenin do these bad things, he talked about doing them before he came into power.  So for Stalin's crimes to be self-serving acts of protecting his own power, then Lenin must also be guilty of self-serving acts of protecting his own power, and he must be guilty of planning these acts before he even came into power, which is an enormous stretch.  Lenin plotting to protect his own position (and writing about it) as head of the Soviet Union before the Soviet Union existed when Lenin was an exile is simply absurd.  Things like the Red Terror and Collectivization were part of Leninist theory, so when Leninists perpetrate acts deemed necessary by their own ideology, it seems reasonable to think they were guided by their ideology in perpetrating these acts.

Well, it's a good point that Stalin was as much a product of the system as creator of it, but I don't think anyone who now studies the history of 20th century Communism will arrive at the conclusion that Stalin was "uniquely bad".  :lol: What about Mao, Pol Pot, and the North Korean leaders?

Rather, the narrative goes like this: that communist ideologues created a system with enormous appeal to people interested in a fundamental transformation of human society; however, the system had terrible flaws, which in pretty well every case enabled it to get hijacked and corrupted from within, by all-powerful leaders who siezed power and twisted the system from above to suit themselves. Stalin is simply one terrible example of that corruption.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 09, 2015, 08:34:50 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 09, 2015, 07:53:35 AM
He didn't want to remake society. He wanted to get and keep power. Nothing else mattered. This is pretty obvious.
Why didn't you inform us of this sooner?  Would've saved us all this pointless debating.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 09, 2015, 08:35:59 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 08:01:03 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 06:50:19 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 05:31:54 PM
These are actions consistent with being a psychopath - inability to have empathy, superficial glibness and charm (Stalin was, reputedly, very charming and charismatic in person), etc.
:huh: No he wasn't.  He drew Lenin's ire because he cursed out Lenin's wife.  He was the opposite of charming.

:huh: Being rude to Lenin's wife means he can't possibly have been superficially charismatic?
He was charismatic, but in a very rude way, not a very charming way.  He was all "Yeah, I admit it, I'm not nice, but I get the job done."
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 08:36:58 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 08:29:48 AM
Well, anyway you cut it seems clear that you can't talk about the USSR without it just turning into STALINSTALINSTALIN. Yawn.

Well, we could go on carrying pictures of Chairman Mao, but then - we ain't going to make it with anyone anyhow.  ;)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 09, 2015, 08:41:05 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 08:14:21 AM
He was just another brutal warlord, cynically *manipulating* the idealistic impulses of convinced Communist believers for his own benefit - the power of which can be seen by the fact that, as demonstrated in this thread, some people to this day *still*, despite all evidence to thre contrary, believe in his ideological bona fides.
Now, I'm not good at naming fallacies, but surely it has to be some kind of sophistry?  "The fact that there are people in this thread who disagree with me is further proof that I'm right."   :hmm:  If it's not a fallacy, then I'm going to adopt this in all my debates here going forward, I don't see how I can lose.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: LaCroix on October 09, 2015, 08:44:09 AM
Quote from: BerkutBut even the Stalin's of the world still have to get a lot of other people to go along with them, and not all of them do so from the direct threat of violence. Many do so because they believe in what the leader is selling, even if the leader could not care less.

well, yeah. middle-management goes with the flow in any organization. the top sets the tempo, and it goes down from there. very few are willing to buck against what's wrong. especially when the threat of potential violence exists. even when it doesn't exist, things like personal best interest keep people from going against the current even if they do feel something is wrong.

Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2015, 08:26:25 AMSadly it was not true.

would you provide evidence for this? links, etc.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: LaCroix on October 09, 2015, 08:51:14 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 09, 2015, 08:41:05 AMNow, I'm not good at naming fallacies, but surely it has to be some kind of sophistry?  "The fact that there are people in this thread who disagree with me is further proof that I'm right."   :hmm:  If it's not a fallacy, then I'm going to adopt this in all my debates here going forward, I don't see how I can lose.

is the irony intentional that you misconstrued malthus's post, turned it into a strawman, and then said if you create strawmen, you could win all arguments? :P
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on October 09, 2015, 08:51:58 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 08:07:54 AM
We do this in corporate America as well, where we have huge companies (like HP as a perfect example) and we conclude that their success or failure is mostly, if not completely, driven by the CEO. In reality, of course, they succeed or fail based on the aggregate of a huge number of people, processes, technology, and markets. But that is complicated, so instead we say "Carly destroyed HP!".

Oh yeah if there is any problem in Corporate America it is the brutal and savage way CEOs are held responsible for leadership failures. Heaven help the poor CEO who fails even a little bit.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 08:53:09 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 09, 2015, 08:51:58 AM

Oh yeah if there is any problem in Corporate America it is the brutal and savage way CEOs are made responsible for leadership failures. Heaven help the poor CEO who fails even a little bit.

:lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 09, 2015, 08:58:34 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 08:14:21 AM

For myself, I judge the sincerity of people by what they do *after* they achieve power - and in the case of Stalin, it is obvious he never gave a toss about the good of the "people", even in the abstract sense of what was good for the state entity (except to the extent it served himself). He was just another brutal warlord, cynically *manipulating* the idealistic impulses of convinced Communist believers for his own benefit - the power of which can be seen by the fact that, as demonstrated in this thread, some people to this day *still*, despite all evidence to thre contrary, believe in his ideological bona fides.

This is surreal.  If someone adheres to a murderous ideology we decided he's not a sincere believer in it because he's a murderer?  That doesn't make a lick of sense.  Ruthless collectivization, murder of class enemies  and generalized terror are indicators that he didn't believe in an ideology of Ruthless collectivization, murder of class enemies and generalized terror?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on October 09, 2015, 09:00:23 AM
Can we start talking about how evil Lenin was? Just for a change of pace.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 09:02:15 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2015, 08:58:34 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 08:14:21 AM

For myself, I judge the sincerity of people by what they do *after* they achieve power - and in the case of Stalin, it is obvious he never gave a toss about the good of the "people", even in the abstract sense of what was good for the state entity (except to the extent it served himself). He was just another brutal warlord, cynically *manipulating* the idealistic impulses of convinced Communist believers for his own benefit - the power of which can be seen by the fact that, as demonstrated in this thread, some people to this day *still*, despite all evidence to thre contrary, believe in his ideological bona fides.

This is surreal.  If someone adheres to a murderous ideology we decided he's not a sincere believer in it because he's a murderer?  That doesn't make a lick of sense.  Ruthless collectivization, murder of class enemies  and generalized terror are indicators that he didn't believe in an ideology of Ruthless collectivization, murder of class enemies and generalized terror?

You are right - if I said what you imagine I said, it wouldn't make a lick of sense.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 09, 2015, 09:06:56 AM
Quote from: LaCroix on October 09, 2015, 08:44:09 AM
Quote from: BerkutBut even the Stalin's of the world still have to get a lot of other people to go along with them, and not all of them do so from the direct threat of violence. Many do so because they believe in what the leader is selling, even if the leader could not care less.

well, yeah. middle-management goes with the flow in any organization. the top sets the tempo, and it goes down from there. very few are willing to buck against what's wrong. especially when the threat of potential violence exists. even when it doesn't exist, things like personal best interest keep people from going against the current even if they do feel something is wrong.

Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2015, 08:26:25 AMSadly it was not true.

would you provide evidence for this? links, etc.

You want me to provide evidence that Lenin did bad things?  Or do you want me to provide evidence that people argued that Stalin was "uniquely bad"?  The first one doesn't warrant a response, as for the second one, the collected works of Leon Trotsky and all Trotskist prior to 1989 and most of them after that.  Also all soviet historians after 1958, and pretty much every soviet sympathizer after 1960.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 09, 2015, 09:10:22 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 09:02:15 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2015, 08:58:34 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 08:14:21 AM

For myself, I judge the sincerity of people by what they do *after* they achieve power - and in the case of Stalin, it is obvious he never gave a toss about the good of the "people", even in the abstract sense of what was good for the state entity (except to the extent it served himself). He was just another brutal warlord, cynically *manipulating* the idealistic impulses of convinced Communist believers for his own benefit - the power of which can be seen by the fact that, as demonstrated in this thread, some people to this day *still*, despite all evidence to thre contrary, believe in his ideological bona fides.

This is surreal.  If someone adheres to a murderous ideology we decided he's not a sincere believer in it because he's a murderer?  That doesn't make a lick of sense.  Ruthless collectivization, murder of class enemies  and generalized terror are indicators that he didn't believe in an ideology of Ruthless collectivization, murder of class enemies and generalized terror?

You are right - if I said what you imagine I said, it wouldn't make a lick of sense.

The only way you didn't say that is if you somehow think that Marxism-Leninism is not a murderous ideology.  If that were true then I could see why you are so confused on this issue.  If that is so, then let me set you straight:  Marxism-Leninism is a murderous ideology.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 09:12:37 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 09, 2015, 08:51:58 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 08:07:54 AM
We do this in corporate America as well, where we have huge companies (like HP as a perfect example) and we conclude that their success or failure is mostly, if not completely, driven by the CEO. In reality, of course, they succeed or fail based on the aggregate of a huge number of people, processes, technology, and markets. But that is complicated, so instead we say "Carly destroyed HP!".

Oh yeah if there is any problem in Corporate America it is the brutal and savage way CEOs are held responsible for leadership failures. Heaven help the poor CEO who fails even a little bit.

WTF?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 09:13:53 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 08:53:09 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 09, 2015, 08:51:58 AM

Oh yeah if there is any problem in Corporate America it is the brutal and savage way CEOs are made responsible for leadership failures. Heaven help the poor CEO who fails even a little bit.

:lol:

I don't know what I find more frustrating - people who make up entire arguments so they can smugly refute them, or the cheerleaders who egg them on.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 09, 2015, 09:19:35 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 08:03:30 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2015, 06:56:17 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 08, 2015, 05:42:58 PM
My point: that the system set up by the Bolshiveks enabled the party to be taken over by people who did not give a shit about Communism, other than as a route to power. Stalin was one such, but so were many of his close henchmen - look, for example, at Beria. Sexual predator and torturer, he very nearly replaced Stalin.
What does one have to do with the other?  You can't be a sexual predator and a communist?

Seriously, Malthus, you sound like someone who just recently finished a book you really liked, and now enthusiastically adopt every single thing written by one author in one book as the complete truth.

:huh: You think Beria was a convinced ideological communist, who committed his crimes because he loved the people?
I'm not saying he was or wasn't, but how is mentioning Beria's sexual predator behavior relevant one way or the other?  "A:  The sky is purple because sheep provide us wool.  B:  How are sheep relevant to the color of the sky?  A:   :huh: You think the sky is purple?"

Seriously, I'm just having such a hard time grasping any of the logical connections you're attempting to make in this discussion.  Stalin weakened his country by over-indulging in terror, and thus he obviously can't be an ideological communist?  Beria wasn't an ideological communist, he was a sexual predator!  Seriously, what the fuck is this?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on October 09, 2015, 09:20:54 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 09:12:37 AM

WTF?

First of all HP is a horrible example. They were in a declining market with antiquated technology and decided the best way to slow this decline was to buy a company with identical problems. They basically took a knife and plunged it into their own backs repeatedly. Nobody was giving HP crap for simply struggling in a difficult market. Nobody shits on IBM or Dell the same way.

Secondly I get basically what you are saying, I even agree a bit. We see it all over the place in politics, Presidents and Prime Ministers being held responsible for the economy when the overwhelming majority of the time their nations' economy is under the influence of international economic factors way outside the ability of local politicians to control.

But I had to giggle about the poor American CEOs being held responsible. Those people get millions and cushy jobs forever if they succeed, and millions and cushy jobs forever if they fail. It is only their egos that drive them onwards.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on October 09, 2015, 09:21:38 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 09:13:53 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 08:53:09 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 09, 2015, 08:51:58 AM

Oh yeah if there is any problem in Corporate America it is the brutal and savage way CEOs are made responsible for leadership failures. Heaven help the poor CEO who fails even a little bit.

:lol:

I don't know what I find more frustrating - people who make up entire arguments so they can smugly refute them, or the cheerleaders who egg them on.

:lol: Don't be that guy. You know I was joking.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 09:24:36 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 09:13:53 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 08:53:09 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 09, 2015, 08:51:58 AM

Oh yeah if there is any problem in Corporate America it is the brutal and savage way CEOs are made responsible for leadership failures. Heaven help the poor CEO who fails even a little bit.

:lol:

I don't know what I find more frustrating - people who make up entire arguments so they can smugly refute them, or the cheerleaders who egg them on.


I didn't think it was an argument - I thought it was a joke.  :huh:

Edit: so did V.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 09:26:07 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 09, 2015, 09:20:54 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 09:12:37 AM

WTF?

First of all HP is a horrible example. They were in a declining market with antiquated technology and decided the best way to slow this decline was to buy a company with identical problems. They basically took a knife and plunged it into their own backs repeatedly. Nobody was giving HP crap for simply struggling in a difficult market. Nobody shits on IBM or Dell the same way.

Secondly I get basically what you are saying, I even agree a bit. We see it all over the place in politics, Presidents and Prime Ministers being held responsible for the economy when the overwhelming majority of the time their nations' economy is under the influence of international economic factors way outside the ability of local politicians to control.

But I had to giggle about the poor American CEOs being held responsible. Those people get millions and cushy jobs forever if they succeed, and millions and cushy jobs forever if they fail. It is only their egos that drive them onwards.

I was not talking about them being held responsible, I was talking about how we substitute figurative heads rather than going through the work of understanding what is actually happening. This has NOTHING to do with holding CEO responsible, or any kind of comment in general on whether or not CEO are or are not held responsible enough. The point was that if you want to understand why HP had a rough time, or why Apple succeeded, or why Germany lost WW2, it is foolish to simply talk about Fiorina, Jobs, and Hitleras if they were the primary drivers of those failures or successes, yet we do that all the time.

We are doing it in this very thread, giving Stalin some kind of godlike power to define everything about Soviet Communism, even decades after his death - even to the extent that argument are being made that you cannot even talk about Soviet Communism without the discussion being primarily about Stalin.

My point says exactly NOTHING about "holding CEOs accountable", much less enough about it to justify some inane cheapshot about it.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 09:35:46 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 09:26:07 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 09, 2015, 09:20:54 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 09:12:37 AM

WTF?

First of all HP is a horrible example. They were in a declining market with antiquated technology and decided the best way to slow this decline was to buy a company with identical problems. They basically took a knife and plunged it into their own backs repeatedly. Nobody was giving HP crap for simply struggling in a difficult market. Nobody shits on IBM or Dell the same way.

Secondly I get basically what you are saying, I even agree a bit. We see it all over the place in politics, Presidents and Prime Ministers being held responsible for the economy when the overwhelming majority of the time their nations' economy is under the influence of international economic factors way outside the ability of local politicians to control.

But I had to giggle about the poor American CEOs being held responsible. Those people get millions and cushy jobs forever if they succeed, and millions and cushy jobs forever if they fail. It is only their egos that drive them onwards.

I was not talking about them being held responsible, I was talking about how we substitute figurative heads rather than going through the work of understanding what is actually happening. This has NOTHING to do with holding CEO responsible, or any kind of comment in general on whether or not CEO are or are not held responsible enough. The point was that if you want to understand why HP had a rough time, or why Apple succeeded, or why Germany lost WW2, it is foolish to simply talk about Fiorina, Jobs, and Hitleras if they were the primary drivers of those failures or successes, yet we do that all the time.

We are doing it in this very thread, giving Stalin some kind of godlike power to define everything about Soviet Communism, even decades after his death - even to the extent that argument are being made that you cannot even talk about Soviet Communism without the discussion being primarily about Stalin.

My point says exactly NOTHING about "holding CEOs accountable", much less enough about it to justify some inane cheapshot about it.

It is equally foolish to *not* talk about Jobs, Hiler, or Stalin. Surely it is the interaction between these leaders, their followers, and the entities they helped create that is significant. Also, some leaders are simply more significant than others - it makes no sense to discuss the US as if it was the creation of Washington (however important he was), because the US had many effective leading influences in its creation; Hitler has a far more pivotal role in the creation of Nazi Germany; and Stalin likewise in the creation of the Soviet Union.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 09, 2015, 09:38:29 AM
Just to stop you before you go to far, just because Hitler killed Jews doesn't mean he wasn't an anti-Semite.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on October 09, 2015, 09:43:55 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 09:26:07 AM
My point says exactly NOTHING about "holding CEOs accountable", much less enough about it to justify some inane cheapshot about it.

Ok be that guy. :lol:

QuoteI was not talking about them being held responsible, I was talking about how we substitute figurative heads rather than going through the work of understanding what is actually happening. This has NOTHING to do with holding CEO responsible, or any kind of comment in general on whether or not CEO are or are not held responsible enough. The point was that if you want to understand why HP had a rough time, or why Apple succeeded, or why Germany lost WW2, it is foolish to simply talk about Fiorina, Jobs, and Hitleras if they were the primary drivers of those failures or successes, yet we do that all the time.

Ok I get what you are saying but those are not particularly good examples. All those people were the primary drivers for how things turned out for their organizations. They all steered their organizations in radical directions they would not have gone otherwise. Hitler was not just the primary driver for Germany losing WW2, he was WW2. There is no WW2 without Hitler.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 09:45:32 AM
OK, never mind. STALINSTALINSTALIN it is.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on October 09, 2015, 09:53:03 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 09, 2015, 09:45:32 AM
OK, never mind. STALINSTALINSTALIN it is.

No no I think you have a good point here. I was just quibbling with your examples.

Stalin did not invent the Soviet Union. The debate is always going to be what extent he defined it during and after his 30+ years he was in charge.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 09, 2015, 09:55:18 AM
Berkut's point has merit, but I think he's overstating it.  Obviously the leader of any organization isn't everything, but he's usually the most influential person by far.  And there have been many cases where a single leader has indeed been a very pivotal part of disaster (or success for that matter).  Yes, other people were needed to carry out the leader's insanity, but those other people can be inspired by that leader in a way that they wouldn't be inspired by another leader.  Sometimes someone like Francisco Solano López gets to be in charge, and through a combination of good leadership skill and good luck lays total waste to the organization they lead.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 09, 2015, 10:34:37 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 09, 2015, 09:55:18 AM
Berkut's point has merit, but I think he's overstating it.  Obviously the leader of any organization isn't everything, but he's usually the most influential person by far.  And there have been many cases where a single leader has indeed been a very pivotal part of disaster (or success for that matter).  Yes, other people were needed to carry out the leader's insanity, but those other people can be inspired by that leader in a way that they wouldn't be inspired by another leader.  Sometimes someone like Francisco Solano López gets to be in charge, and through a combination of good leadership skill and good luck lays total waste to the organization they lead.

I think Berkut is on the right track, though it applies differently to founders and successors.  If Stalin had never been born then the Soviet Union would still have terror, collectivization, and mass murder and very likely party purges.  These were already factors in the Soviet Union under Lenin.  It might have been better and it might have been worse, it's easy to imagine the Soviet Union mired in a "cultural revolution" or even open rebellion under another Bolshevik.  If Lenin hadn't been born, it's harder to say what Russia would be like.  The Socialist Revolutionaries would likely have still ceased power, but unlike Lenin's outfit it was a larger organization with more diverse opinions.  Civil war and terror between the factions would be very likely making it more like the French Revolution.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on October 09, 2015, 10:46:04 AM
The SRs were peasant populists right?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 09, 2015, 12:54:34 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 09, 2015, 10:46:04 AM
The SRs were peasant populists right?


I think they were a wide coalition of socialists.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on October 09, 2015, 01:00:13 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2015, 12:54:34 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 09, 2015, 10:46:04 AM
The SRs were peasant populists right?


I think they were a wide coalition of socialists.

I seem to recall they were a peasant party.

Ok reading up on it, it does look like agrarian populism was the main thing but you are right they had a bit more to them than that.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 01:06:37 PM
Speaking of populists - just think: in the future, people may be having the same conversation about the influence of Donald Trump!  :D
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Savonarola on October 09, 2015, 01:29:52 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 01:06:37 PM
Speaking of populists - just think: in the future, people may be having the same conversation about the influence of Donald Trump!  :D

:lol:

Our show trials will have pizzazz!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 09, 2015, 01:32:54 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 01:06:37 PM
Speaking of populists - just think: in the future, people may be having the same conversation about the influence of Donald Trump!  :D
Ugh, I sure hope not.  Having Trump as president would be bad enough.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 01:39:39 PM
Quote from: Savonarola on October 09, 2015, 01:29:52 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 01:06:37 PM
Speaking of populists - just think: in the future, people may be having the same conversation about the influence of Donald Trump!  :D

:lol:

Our show trials will have pizzazz!

After his death, his hairpiece will be embalmed, put on public display, and guarded by goose-stepping supermodels.  :)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Savonarola on October 09, 2015, 02:06:47 PM
Quote from: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 01:39:39 PM
After his death, his hairpiece will be embalmed, put on public display, and guarded by goose-stepping supermodels.  :)

Even better.

Also our death camps will be televised brutal contests (you'll endure a week of starvation, at the end of which you'll be forced to march twenty miles.  Whoever does so in the least amount of time wins the immunity challenge.)  At the end of every week The Donald will come out and tell the loser "You're liquidated."



Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on October 09, 2015, 08:17:42 PM
I think this might be our first Stalin/Evils of Communism thread hijack.  :)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Monoriu on October 09, 2015, 08:18:47 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on October 09, 2015, 08:17:42 PM
I think this might be our first Stalin/Evils of Communism thread hijack.  :)

Will there be a second?  :unsure:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 09, 2015, 08:49:04 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 09, 2015, 08:18:47 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on October 09, 2015, 08:17:42 PM
I think this might be our first Stalin/Evils of Communism thread hijack.  :)

Will there be a second?  :unsure:

What is Beijing's position on Stalin hijacks? :unsure:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Monoriu on October 09, 2015, 09:18:23 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 09, 2015, 08:49:04 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 09, 2015, 08:18:47 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on October 09, 2015, 08:17:42 PM
I think this might be our first Stalin/Evils of Communism thread hijack.  :)

Will there be a second?  :unsure:

What is Beijing's position on Stalin hijacks? :unsure:

I have no clue :weep:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: dps on October 10, 2015, 04:55:53 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 09, 2015, 08:34:31 AM

Well, it's a good point that Stalin was as much a product of the system as creator of it, but I don't think anyone who now studies the history of 20th century Communism will arrive at the conclusion that Stalin was "uniquely bad".  :lol: What about Mao, Pol Pot, and the North Korean leaders?

Rather, the narrative goes like this: that communist ideologues created a system with enormous appeal to people interested in a fundamental transformation of human society; however, the system had terrible flaws, which in pretty well every case enabled it to get hijacked and corrupted from within, by all-powerful leaders who siezed power and twisted the system from above to suit themselves. Stalin is simply one terrible example of that corruption.

The problem I have with that narrative is that Stalin didn't corrupt the system and twist it into a brutal, murderous, terroristic totalitarian regime.  That's what the system already was when he took power.  Was he more thorough and irrational about implementing the terror than others might have been?  Well, yeah, probably.  Did others go even further?  Yep.  So of course Stalin wasn't unique--but that's the point.  Again, what Stalin did wasn't a perversion of the system, it's what the system was.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on October 10, 2015, 05:03:56 AM
Lenin was mass-murdering scum. Communism is in theory incredibly horrible, in practice it's downright nasty.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on October 10, 2015, 05:59:48 AM
When I talk about people saying Stalin was "uniquely bad", I'm referring to the history of the Soviet Union.  This was the official history of the Soviet Union after Stalin died.  Also know as the "Good Lenin, Bad Stalin" view of Soviet history.  It was complete bunk, but it was a widely held view by historians in and out of the Soviet Union. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Zanza on October 11, 2015, 10:53:53 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/eCXC4JY.jpg)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on October 11, 2015, 11:38:30 AM
^_^
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 11, 2015, 11:01:37 PM
Congresswoman Gabbard's take on the situation

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F2UgqiaB.png%3F1&hash=a24b5959e433ecb8d9c251473252f8d32ed62e66)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on October 12, 2015, 08:31:48 AM
More of Putin's fans.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Fate on October 12, 2015, 12:59:25 PM
I think she has a partial point. If you look at NYTimes et al's Syrian civil war maps they do lump US supported rebels and Al-Nusra front under the label "Rebels" but will separate out ISIS with its own color/legend key. It's very misleading. I don't think many Americans will shed tears over dead Al-Qaeda affiliates.

Ex: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/09/30/world/middleeast/syria-control-map-isis-rebels-airstrikes.html#compare-strikes

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 13, 2015, 06:13:52 PM
I think the Russians will call their bluff, but I'm really not sure that they're bluffing.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/13/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey-idUSKCN0S71BF20151013

QuoteTurkey warns U.S., Russia against backing Kurdish militia in Syria

ANKARA  |  By Orhan Coskun


Turkey has warned the United States and Russia it will not tolerate Kurdish territorial gains by Kurdish militia close to its frontiers in north-western Syria, two senior officials said.

"This is clear cut for us and there is no joking about it," one official said of the possibility of Syrian Kurdish militia crossing the Euphrates to extend control along Turkish borders from Iraq's Kurdistan region towards the Mediterranean coast.

Turkey fears advances by Kurdish YPG militia, backed by its PYD political wing, on the Syrian side of its 900 km (560-mile) border will fuel separatist ambitions among Kurds in its own southeastern territories. But Washington has supported YPG fighters as an effective force in combating Islamic State.

"The PYD has been getting closer with both the United States and Russia of late. We view the PYD as a terrorist group and we want all countries to consider the consequences of their cooperation," one of the Turkish officials said.

Turkey suspects Russia, which launched air strikes in Syria two weeks ago, has also been lending support to the YPG and PYD.

"With support from Russia, the PYD is trying to capture land between Jarablus and Azaz, going west of the Euphrates. We will never accept this," the official said.

He said Turkey had raised its concerns at high level meetings with the U.S., European Union and Russia.


IRAQI STRIKES

The officials did not say what action, if any, Turkey might take if YPG forces crossed the Euphrates. Ankara has carried out air strikes against Turkish Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) rebels based in the mountains of northern Iraq; but attacks on Kurds in Syria would be far riskier, bringing Ankara into possible conflict both with U.S. and Russian air forces.

The YPG said on Monday it had joined forces with Arab rebels and that their new alliance has been promised fresh weapon supplies by the United States for an assault on Islamic State forces in what is effectively their capital, Raqqa.

Turkey has accused the Kurdish militia of pursuing "demographic change" in northern Syria by forcibly displacing Turkmen and Arab communities. Ankara fears ultimately the creation of an independent Kurdish state occupying contiguous territories currently belonging to Iraq, Syria and Turkey.

Amnesty International on Tuesday accused the YPG, which has seized swathes of northern Syria from Islamic State this year, of committing war crimes by driving out thousands of non-Kurdish civilians and destroying their homes.

The Kurds, who have emerged as the U.S.-led coalition's most capable partner in Syria against Islamic State on the ground, deny such accusations. They say those who left areas they seized did so to escape fighting and are welcome to return.

Over 40,000 people have been killed in a Kurdish insurgency in Turkey since 1984. The collapse of a ceasefire in July has brought a sharp increase in conflict between security forces and Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) fighters.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 15, 2015, 10:08:16 PM
Rumours the Cubans might get involved. It's the 1980s all over again!  :wacko:

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2015/10/15/Cuba-may-deploy-troops-in-Syria-to-aid-Russias-efforts/5781444911771/
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on October 15, 2015, 10:23:18 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on October 15, 2015, 10:08:16 PM
Rumours the Cubans might get involved. It's the 1980s all over again!  :wacko:

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2015/10/15/Cuba-may-deploy-troops-in-Syria-to-aid-Russias-efforts/5781444911771/

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.runningisfunny.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F10%2Fzombiereagan.png&hash=5d903232fc729414c758426e386e4552a0883e9f)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on October 15, 2015, 10:40:37 PM
Who's next?  Burkina Faso?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on October 15, 2015, 10:42:40 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 15, 2015, 10:40:37 PM
Who's next?  Burkina Faso?

If we use "Red Dawn" as a reference point...Nicaragua.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 15, 2015, 11:46:29 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on October 15, 2015, 10:42:40 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 15, 2015, 10:40:37 PM
Who's next?  Burkina Faso?

If we use "Red Dawn" as a reference point...Nicaragua.

Yep, because Burkina Faso is part of the pré carré i.e French.  :frog:
I believe there was a putsch and/or a civil war going in the former Haute Volta lately so they might be busy for a while.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 16, 2015, 02:16:32 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on October 15, 2015, 10:42:40 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 15, 2015, 10:40:37 PM
Who's next?  Burkina Faso?

If we use "Red Dawn" as a reference point...Nicaragua.

they don't have an army, iirc
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 16, 2015, 03:07:21 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 16, 2015, 02:16:32 AM
they don't have an army, iirc

Costa Rica doesn't have an army.  Pretty sure Nicaragua does.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 16, 2015, 05:36:55 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 16, 2015, 03:07:21 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 16, 2015, 02:16:32 AM
they don't have an army, iirc

Costa Rica doesn't have an army.  Pretty sure Nicaragua does.

aha, thx
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on October 16, 2015, 02:09:19 PM
If Venezuela wasn't such a basket case these days, they might like to help the Russkies out.  Or Argentina could some practice in before trying another Falklands grab (which if they managed to pull off again, would probably go unopposed this time).
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on October 16, 2015, 02:10:56 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on October 16, 2015, 02:09:19 PM
Or Argentina could some practice in before trying another Falklands grab (which if they managed to pull off again, would probably go unopposed this time).

With the Tories in power?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: PJL on October 16, 2015, 02:16:31 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 16, 2015, 02:10:56 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on October 16, 2015, 02:09:19 PM
Or Argentina could some practice in before trying another Falklands grab (which if they managed to pull off again, would probably go unopposed this time).

With the Tories in power?

Even with the Tories, I'm not sure Hollande would lend his planes needed for our aircraft carrier. Or is it the carrier for our planes, I'm not sure. Although I might be wrong, as Mitterand did support us last time Argentina invaded.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on October 16, 2015, 02:17:58 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 16, 2015, 02:10:56 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on October 16, 2015, 02:09:19 PM
Or Argentina could some practice in before trying another Falklands grab (which if they managed to pull off again, would probably go unopposed this time).

With the Tories in power?

Do you still have two hands?


If so that's just about enough to count how the number of Royal Navy warships. un- :bowler:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on October 16, 2015, 02:21:28 PM
Quote from: PJL on October 16, 2015, 02:16:31 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 16, 2015, 02:10:56 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on October 16, 2015, 02:09:19 PM
Or Argentina could some practice in before trying another Falklands grab (which if they managed to pull off again, would probably go unopposed this time).

With the Tories in power?

Even with the Tories, I'm not sure Hollande would lend his planes needed for our aircraft carrier. Or is it the carrier for our planes, I'm not sure. Although I might be wrong, as Mitterand did support us last time Argentina invaded.

The Tories may be in power, but that doesn't mean they have Maggie's balls.  :P

I guess it would ultimately depend on how supportive/involved our government would be.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 16, 2015, 07:03:44 PM
Quote from: PJL on October 16, 2015, 02:16:31 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 16, 2015, 02:10:56 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on October 16, 2015, 02:09:19 PM
Or Argentina could some practice in before trying another Falklands grab (which if they managed to pull off again, would probably go unopposed this time).

With the Tories in power?

Even with the Tories, I'm not sure Hollande would lend his planes needed for our aircraft carrier. Or is it the carrier for our planes, I'm not sure. Although I might be wrong, as Mitterand did support us last time Argentina invaded.

Didn't they build a military base on the island to prevent a landing?

Also, modern submarines are more than enough to destroy what ever navy the Argies have (they've slashed their budget even more than the UK IIRC).
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on October 16, 2015, 08:45:22 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 16, 2015, 02:17:58 PM
Do you still have two hands?


If so that's just about enough to count how the number of Royal Navy warships. un- :bowler:

Still more than enough to defeat whatever shit the Argies have :lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on October 22, 2015, 05:17:09 PM
Rumours that several, perhaps three Russians have been killed in rebel shelling of a forward base inland from Latakia, suggested they're not Russian servicemen, nor 'little green men', but volunteers, possibly having come from a quietening Eastern Ukraine.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 03, 2015, 07:14:50 PM
F-15s sent to Turkey to keep an eye on the Russians. I thought we'd phased them out for F-22s?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/11/03/u-s-brings-dogfighters-to-counter-russians-over-syria.html
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on November 03, 2015, 09:28:28 PM
What a dorky article. F-15C's can carry bombs.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on November 03, 2015, 09:36:54 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 03, 2015, 07:14:50 PMI thought we'd phased them out for F-22s?


Nope.  Still plenty of Eagle Drivers out there.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on November 03, 2015, 09:47:51 PM
Russians say they're now responding to, or working from targeting given to them by Syrian opposition groups.   :hmm:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on November 03, 2015, 09:58:28 PM
Quote from: mongers on November 03, 2015, 09:47:51 PM
Russians say they're now responding to, or working from targeting given to them by Syrian opposition groups.   :hmm:

That doesn't make a lot of sense.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on November 03, 2015, 11:45:59 PM
 :hmm: It does make sense if the Syrian opposition groups are giving the Russians targeting information inadvertently.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on March 14, 2016, 11:04:24 PM
Assad's army was bled white when the Russians swept into save them. Have they done enough damage that the rebels won't be able to reorganize and go back on the offensive without them there? I doubt it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/putin-announces-russia-will-pull-most-of-its-military-from-syria/2016/03/14/abd2a9d9-5e8c-4521-8b4b-960a8e6c96d4_story.html
Quote

The Washington Post

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Russia will begin pulling most of its military from Syria. (The Washington Post)

By Michael Birnbaum and Hugh Naylor March 14 at 6:23 PM    


MOSCOW — President Vladimir Putin announced Monday that Russia would begin withdrawing the "main part" of its military from Syria, a surprise potential end to a six-month intervention that bolstered Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and dealt a grave blow to Syrian rebels.

The decision came as U.N.-
brokered peace talks between the Assad government and rebel representatives got underway in Geneva. The planned Tuesday start of the withdrawal coincides with the five-year anniversary of the beginning of street protests in Syria, an initially peaceful movement that was brutally repressed by Assad forces.

Through it all, Russia has backed Assad. But Monday's decision may intensify pressure on the Syrian government to strike a deal with rebel groups in Geneva. Talks resumed there Monday after breaking down a month ago because the rebels were suffering such heavy losses in their surrounded stronghold of Aleppo. A shaky cease-fire has quelled fighting in Syria since late February, but Assad's forces have continued an assault on their rivals.

"I hope that this will considerably increase the level of trust between all parties of the Syrian settlement and will contribute to a peaceful resolution of the Syrian issue," Putin said in a meeting with his top deputies that was broadcast on Russian state television late Monday. In a separate phone call with Assad, Putin said the intervention had "radically changed the situation" on the ground, according to the Kremlin.

[How the Syrian revolt went so horribly, tragically wrong]

Putin said that Russia would keep open the Russian air force and naval bases in Syria but that the task of the Russian intervention had been achieved and diplomacy should take over.

The Obama administration was taken by surprise by the announcement, which the White House said President Obama later "discussed" with Putin in a telephone call that had been previously scheduled to talk about implementation of the cease-fire.

Putin made the decision unilaterally, without any such request from Assad, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. It was a pointed message suggesting that Russia's support for Assad is not unlimited, now that he is unlikely to be deposed by force.

It was not immediately clear whether the announcement meant an end to all Russian airstrikes in Syria. The Kremlin spokesman said that Russia did not believe that issues with "terrorists" — the term Russia generally uses for all opponents of Assad — had been solved and that Russia intends to maintain a presence on the ground. Previous ­Russian announcements about peaceful intentions in Syria have been met with skepticism by Western nations.

After Assad appeared weakened and on the verge of defeat over the summer, the Russian intervention inverted the course of the conflict, paving the way with airstrikes for Assad's ground forces. By February, shortly before the cease-fire went into effect, dozens of Russian bombers and jet fighters were often flying more than 60 sorties a day, according to Russia's Defense Ministry, enabling major territorial gains by regime forces. Although Russian leaders said they were targeting the Islamic State and other "terrorists," U.S. officials and rebels said the bulk of the airstrikes were being conducted against other rebel forces battling Assad, some of which were supported by the United States.

The mission was Russia's first overseas combat deployment since the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union, a major test for a military that in 2008 seemed stretched to the breaking point by a brief war in neighboring Georgia. Russia has sought to use the increased clout to play a bigger role at the negotiating table and to break through the international isolation that had settled on it after its 2014 annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula.

Five years ago, few Syrians would have ever imagined that their uprising against their leader — a peaceful Arab Spring revolt — would turn into a violent proxy war for regional actors.

March 15, 2011, Syrians took to the streets in Damascus for unarmed rallies that would spread like wildfire across the country and would eventually be met with utter brutality by Assad's security apparatus. Most Syrians back then would not have expected that the Islamic State and al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra would hijack their revolt and later provide the pretext for the Russian intervention.

For the first three months of the intervention, analysts and officials reported modest gains, as doubts about the battered Syrian army and militias loyal to Assad persisted. But in January, a Syrian offensive began scoring major victories, cutting off supply lines from Turkey and threatening Aleppo.

After helping broker the late February cease-fire, Russia pledged that it would push Assad forces to adhere to the deal.

[Obama thinks his Syria strategy is right — and folks just don't get it]

The Obama administration had become increasingly frustrated in recent days over what it saw as Russia's inability or unwillingness to press Syrian government forces to adhere to the cease-fire. In his call to Putin, the White House said, Obama welcomed the overall reduction in violence but "stressed that continuing offensive actions by Syrian regime forces risk undermining" both the truce and the political negotiations.

Late last week, the administration decided to publicly accuse Moscow of failing to rein in Assad, leading to a string of comments by officials including Secretary of State John F. Kerry, who on Sunday called on Putin to take control of Russia's Syrian ally.

By signing on to the international agreement backing a cease-fire, he said, Russia and Iran "accepted responsibility for the forces that they control or influence. . . . So President Putin, who is invested in supporting Assad . . . should be somewhat concerned" by the actions of Syrian forces.

"We felt it was important, going into these talks, to make it clear that we weren't blind to these violations, that they mattered, and that they really needed to stop," a U.S. official said Monday.

Russian analysts said Putin's announcement may be intended to press Assad at the talks after saving him on the ground.

As Assad representatives take a hard line in the talks, "I think that Russia is really not interested to fully take the responsibility for this behavior," said Fyodor Lukyanov, a well-connected political analyst in Moscow who is the editor of Russia in Global Affairs.

It was unclear what effect the pullout would have on the negotiations. The U.N. envoy charged with the talks, Staffan de Mistura, told journalists ahead of Putin's move that "the only Plan B available is the return to war, and to an even worse war than we had so far."



Syrian opposition leaders on Monday offered cautious praise of the pullout decision.

"For us, it's important to see actions instead of hearing words," said Salem al-Muslet, a spokesman for the main opposition group, the High Negotiations Committee. "If this decision actually removes all Russian troops from Syria, then this will be a positive step."


Naylor reported from Geneva. Karen DeYoung in Washington and Andrew Roth in Moscow contributed to this report.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: viper37 on March 14, 2016, 11:52:19 PM
There's no organized opposition force on the ground, except the Kurds, and the Russians swayed them to their side.
ISIS is seeing recruitment problems, the dozen or so pro-democracy rebels have been anihilated, the other opposition groups have bombed&bombed&bombed by the russians and are not a cohesive force to oppose Assad's army anymore.  Or more accurately, they probably never were, only ISIS was, and so far, Russian + NATO bombings has done a number on them.  Turkey is pissed off at ISIS and the oil convoys don't reach it anymore.  There are lots of desertions, much more than before the russian air strikes, and they are recruiting child soldiers to replenish their ranks.  Not much of a threat to an army that has been resupplied and probably replenished too.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on March 15, 2016, 12:09:33 AM
Quote from: viper37 on March 14, 2016, 11:52:19 PM
There's no organized opposition force on the ground, except the Kurds, and the Russians swayed them to their side.
ISIS is seeing recruitment problems, the dozen or so pro-democracy rebels have been anihilated, the other opposition groups have bombed&bombed&bombed by the russians and are not a cohesive force to oppose Assad's army anymore.  Or more accurately, they probably never were, only ISIS was, and so far, Russian + NATO bombings has done a number on them.  Turkey is pissed off at ISIS and the oil convoys don't reach it anymore.  There are lots of desertions, much more than before the russian air strikes, and they are recruiting child soldiers to replenish their ranks.  Not much of a threat to an army that has been resupplied and probably replenished too.

Al Nusra was equally coherent as ISIS.

The manpower problems the Alawites were facing were just as bad, that's not something you can fix in a year.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on March 15, 2016, 09:33:27 AM
 :cry: :cry: :cry:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/a-staggering-new-death-toll-for-syrias-war-470000/

Quote

More than 1 in 10 Syrians have been wounded or killed since the beginning of the war in 2011, according to a new report that finds a staggering 470,000 deaths have been caused by the conflict, either directly or indirectly.

The grim tally from the Syrian Center for Policy Research (SCPR) represents a dramatic increase from the total of 250,000 fatalities often cited by the United Nations, which stopped independently counting Syria's war dead early in 2014.

In all, 11.5 percent of Syria's population has been wounded or killed since 2011, according to the SCPR analysis. The vast majority of deaths — 400,000 — were caused by violence, while 70,000 came as an indirect result of the war — the collapse of the country's health-care infrastructure, lack of access to medicine, poor sanitation, the spread of communicable diseases, falling vaccination rates, food scarcity and malnutrition. Another 1.88 million Syrians have been injured.

The loss of life was the "most catastrophic visible and direct" impact of the war, according to the report, with life expectancy dropping from 70.5 years in 2010 to an estimated 55.4 years in 2015.

"Hundreds of thousands of people, particularly male breadwinners, have [been] killed, injured, arrested, and kidnapped, enormously endangering their lives and the living conditions of their families," the report said. "The widespread insecurity and unbearable economic conditions and hardship, have forced millions of Syrians to resettle inside or outside the country and to depend completely on local and international humanitarian aids. This loss of security in all its forms has compromised human rights and dignity of the Syrian population."

The report's author, Rabie Nasser, told The Guardian that indirect deaths would only increase in the future. "We are sure of this figure," Nasser said, noting that earlier counts from the U.N. likely "underestimated the casualties due to lack of access to information during the crisis." Research for the SCPR study was carried out on the ground in Syria, according to The Guardian, which first reported the figures.

The SCPR analysis comes as bombing by the Syrian government and Russia of rebel-held Aleppo, the nation's second largest city, has prompted a new exodus of tens of thousands of Syrians. The International Committee of the Red Cross estimates that the latest fighting has displaced 50,000 Syrians in Aleppo province, with around 30,000 gathering near Syria's border with Turkey, which remains closed. Those who remain in Aleppo face a potential siege as forces allied with President Bashar al Assad slowly encircle the area.

In the meantime, diplomacy has been faltering. Earlier this month, international talks aimed at ending the war barely got off the ground in Geneva before they were suspended. The prospect for further negotiations appear dim despite plans to resume them on Feb. 25.

While not apportioning blame to either side in the conflict, the SCPR noted that fighting has destroyed Syria's health-care infrastructure, while sieges and the restriction of movement have worsened the health of those with chronic illnesses. Physicians for Human Rights, a group that tracks the deaths of health-care workers in Syria, said in separate research released last December that 2015 was one of the worst years on record for strikes on medical facilities in the country, with government forces launching more than 100 attacks. Since March 2011, the human rights group has recorded 336 attacks on medical facilities and the deaths of 697 medical personnel — a vast majority of which it attributes to the government and its allies. In Aleppo, Physicians for Human Rights estimates that 95 percent of doctors have either fled, been detained or killed. Those who are still there struggle with shortages of supplies and equipment, and live under the near-constant threat of bombings.

The SCPR also looked at the economic and social impact of the war, placing Syria's total economic loss by the end of 2015 at an estimated $254.7 billion. More than 85 percent of the country is living in poverty, with close to 7 in 10 Syrians stuck in extreme poverty — unable to afford essentials like food or water. At the start of the war in 2011, joblessness stood at 14.9 percent. By the end of last year, it surged to 52.9 percent.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on March 15, 2016, 10:04:35 AM
I mean yeah. Who would have thought it could drag on this long?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on March 15, 2016, 10:25:33 AM
Quote from: Valmy on March 15, 2016, 10:04:35 AM
I mean yeah. Who would have thought it could drag on this long?

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fa5.files.biography.com%2Fimage%2Fupload%2Fc_fill%2Ccs_srgb%2Cdpr_1.0%2Cg_face%2Ch_300%2Cq_80%2Cw_300%2FMTE1ODA0OTcxNzg0NjM1OTE3.jpg&hash=20b789612e084bc56605c71dd8f60cdad8f08259)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: PJL on March 15, 2016, 02:54:26 PM
Never thought I'd say this, but I fear the Russians may have left prematurely. It's quite conceivable that it could still end up like Afghanistan after they left in the late 1980s. I was hoping they would have stayed longer to help Assad to regain control of the rest of the country (or at least with a Kurdish autonomous region).

But the withdrawal will most likely embolden the opposition to Assad, who will likely use the ceasefire to rearm and regroup.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on March 15, 2016, 03:53:11 PM
Quote from: PJL on March 15, 2016, 02:54:26 PM
Never thought I'd say this, but I fear the Russians may have left prematurely. It's quite conceivable that it could still end up like Afghanistan after they left in the late 1980s. I was hoping they would have stayed longer to help Assad to regain control of the rest of the country (or at least with a Kurdish autonomous region).

But the withdrawal will most likely embolden the opposition to Assad, who will likely use the ceasefire to rearm and regroup.

the retreat may be a feint. Embolden the rebels, then hit them hard when they show their faces.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on March 25, 2016, 07:22:53 PM
Government might be on the verge of retaking Palmyra.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on March 25, 2016, 07:52:26 PM
Quote from: mongers on March 25, 2016, 07:22:53 PM
Government might be on the verge of retaking Palmyra.

Hurray for Assad?  :hmm: :yes:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on March 26, 2016, 03:51:17 AM
Is Assad the Trump of Syria?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on March 26, 2016, 11:33:14 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on March 25, 2016, 07:52:26 PM
Quote from: mongers on March 25, 2016, 07:22:53 PM
Government might be on the verge of retaking Palmyra.

Hurray for Assad?  :hmm: :yes:

Yeah, pretty hard to root for the regime that has butchered a couple hundred thousand of their own citizens taking back over some place from jihadists.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on March 27, 2016, 01:45:41 PM
DoD beats CIA....

http://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/in-syria-militias-armed-by-the-pentagon-fight-those-armed-by-the-cia-1.401400

QuoteSyrian militias armed by different parts of the U.S. war machine have begun to fight each other on the plains between the besieged city of Aleppo and the Turkish border, highlighting how little control U.S. intelligence officers and military planners have over the groups they have financed and trained in the bitter five-year-old civil war.

The fighting has intensified over the last two months, as CIA-armed units and Pentagon-armed ones have repeatedly shot at each other while maneuvering through contested territory on the northern outskirts of Aleppo, U.S. officials and rebel leaders have confirmed.

In mid-February, a CIA-armed militia called Fursan al Haq, or Knights of Righteousness, was run out of the town of Marea, about 20 miles north of Aleppo, by Pentagon-backed Syrian Democratic Forces moving in from Kurdish-controlled areas to the east.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on March 27, 2016, 02:31:55 PM
JFC
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 27, 2016, 02:55:18 PM
It's like some squirrelly Third World bullshit plotline you'd expect from the 60's or 70's. 
Oh wait, that's because we keep going back to the same fucking playbook.

For all the crap Obama gets about his policy, he does have a point: at what point are we going to wake up and realize that we get nowhere with the same bad ideas?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Maladict on March 27, 2016, 03:20:28 PM
Looks like they got Palmyra without any further destruction? That's unexpected.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on March 27, 2016, 03:32:04 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 27, 2016, 02:55:18 PM
It's like some squirrelly Third World bullshit plotline you'd expect from the 60's or 70's. 
Oh wait, that's because we keep going back to the same fucking playbook.

For all the crap Obama gets about his policy, he does have a point: at what point are we going to wake up and realize that we get nowhere with the same bad ideas?

I dunno, I think Bush had a new idea - stop supporting dictators for the purpose of "stability" and try and see if people really do want to live in democracies if given the chance.

There were some minor problems with the execution of his strategy, however.

Seems to me like the "same playbook" is what got us the ME we have today...supporting the regimes of people like Assad the Sauds and Mubarak because they are "stable".
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on March 27, 2016, 04:27:07 PM
Quote from: Berkut on March 27, 2016, 03:32:04 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 27, 2016, 02:55:18 PM
It's like some squirrelly Third World bullshit plotline you'd expect from the 60's or 70's. 
Oh wait, that's because we keep going back to the same fucking playbook.

For all the crap Obama gets about his policy, he does have a point: at what point are we going to wake up and realize that we get nowhere with the same bad ideas?

I dunno, I think Bush had a new idea - stop supporting dictators for the purpose of "stability" and try and see if people really do want to live in democracies if given the chance.

There were some minor problems with the execution of his strategy, however.

Seems to me like the "same playbook" is what got us the ME we have today...supporting the regimes of people like Assad the Sauds and Mubarak because they are "stable".

That was Carter's idea.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on March 27, 2016, 04:30:46 PM
People need to stop posting articles and failing to accurately attributing them to the Onion.  <_<
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 27, 2016, 04:55:30 PM
Quote from: Berkut on March 27, 2016, 03:32:04 PM
I dunno, I think Bush had a new idea - stop supporting dictators for the purpose of "stability" and try and see if people really do want to live in democracies if given the chance.

There were some minor problems with the execution of his strategy, however.

Seems to me like the "same playbook" is what got us the ME we have today...supporting the regimes of people like Assad the Sauds and Mubarak because they are "stable".

There are new ideas, and there there are naive, stupid ideas that fly in the face of all conventional wisdom, knowledge of a region, its culture and its history.  Dictatorships and strongmen, for all their ugliness, prevent destructive conflicts and bring order to the galaxy. 


But no, let's keep throwing guns at This Week's Least Worst of the Bad Guys, while the CIA and the Pentagon keep doing their own shit for the sake of anonymous mid-level careerists who want to "retain ownership" or whatever buzzwords they use now in their inter-agency dick measuring rivalry bullshit.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: celedhring on March 28, 2016, 06:12:19 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on March 27, 2016, 01:45:41 PM
DoD beats CIA....

http://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/in-syria-militias-armed-by-the-pentagon-fight-those-armed-by-the-cia-1.401400

QuoteSyrian militias armed by different parts of the U.S. war machine have begun to fight each other on the plains between the besieged city of Aleppo and the Turkish border, highlighting how little control U.S. intelligence officers and military planners have over the groups they have financed and trained in the bitter five-year-old civil war.

The fighting has intensified over the last two months, as CIA-armed units and Pentagon-armed ones have repeatedly shot at each other while maneuvering through contested territory on the northern outskirts of Aleppo, U.S. officials and rebel leaders have confirmed.

In mid-February, a CIA-armed militia called Fursan al Haq, or Knights of Righteousness, was run out of the town of Marea, about 20 miles north of Aleppo, by Pentagon-backed Syrian Democratic Forces moving in from Kurdish-controlled areas to the east.

That's a whole new kind of proxy war.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on March 28, 2016, 01:02:29 PM
Seems encouraging, actually.  Wasn't the knock against CIA that they didn't actually manage to train anyone?  Judging from this story, they certainly have.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Savonarola on April 25, 2016, 09:43:58 AM
Uh oh...

QuoteObama announces an additional 250 special operations forces to Syria

(CNN)President Barack Obama announced Monday an additional 250 special operations forces will be sent to Syria in the coming weeks in a speech in Hannover, Germany, in an effort to stem the influence and spread of ISIS.

"Just as I approved additional support for Iraqi forces against ISIL, I've decided to increase U.S. support for local forces fighting ISIL in Syria, a small number of special operations forces are already on the ground in Syria and their expertise has been critical as local forces have driven ISIL out of key areas," Obama said, using another acronym for the jihadist group.

"So given their success I've approved the deployment of up to 250 additional U.S. personnel in Syria including special forces to keep up this momentum," he said.

Obama stressed that U.S. troops will not be leading the fight on the ground but they will be essential in training and assisting local forces.

"So make no mistake these terrorists will learn the same lesson as others before them have, which is 'your hatred is no match for our nations united in the defense of our way of life,' " he said, adding that the increase would bring the number of U.S. special forces in the country to as many as 300 troops, including special forces.

But the President said he would continue to pursue diplomatic solutions to ending the Syrian civil war.

"Just as we remain relentless on the military front we're not going to give up on diplomacy to end the civil war in Syria because the suffering of the people in Syria has to end and that requires an effective political transition," he said.
Supporting Syrian allies

The troops will be expanding the ongoing U.S. effort to bring more Syrian Arab fighters into units the U.S. supports in northern Syria that have largely been manned by the Kurds, an official told CNN earlier.

The plan calls for the additional U.S. forces to "advise and assist" forces in the area whom the U.S. hopes may eventually grow strong enough to take back territory around Raqqa, Syria, where ISIS is based.

These troops are not expected to engage in combat operations or to participate in target-to-kill teams but will be armed to defend themselves, one official said.

"As we have noted in recent days, the President has authorized a series of steps to increase support for our partners in the region, including Iraqi security forces as well as local Syrian forces who are taking the fight to ISIL," a senior administration official CNN. "The President during his remarks at the Hannover Messe fairgrounds on Monday will speak to this additional step."
The official said the President was persuaded to take this additional step because of recent successes against ISIS.

JFK would be so proud.   :)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Monoriu on July 28, 2016, 08:17:39 PM
Is the Syrian civil war coming to an end with victory for Assad in sight?


QuoteAleppo siege: Why latest developments are so significant
By Clarissa Ward, CNN
Updated 1621 GMT (0021 HKT) July 28, 2016

(CNN)Syrian and Russian forces are to open humanitarian corridors for people to flee Aleppo, the day after Syria's army announced that it had encircled the besieged city -- cutting off supply lines and creating relief sites to distribute food and medicine to civilians.

But what does the relief operation mean for the desperate citizens of Aleppo and the future of the city?

The Russians and Syrian government forces have been pounding Aleppo relentlessly for months now in an effort to take back the eastern part of the city which has been in rebel hands for nearly four years.

Aleppo has seen many of its neighborhoods come under fire for 80 consecutive days, with more than 6,000 people -- mainly civilians -- killed or injured. Four hospitals have been hit. Rebel fighters have been hitting back with artillery and bombings but they simply can't match the firepower that government forces have since the Russian intervention.

Why are the latest development such a big deal?

Aleppo is the country's largest city and a vital economic hub. When rebels first launched their attack on the city in July 2012, it sent shock waves through government-held parts of Aleppo. Regime strongholds were no longer seen as impenetrable.

People began speculating that the downfall of President Bashar al Assad was imminent. For rebel forces it was a jubilant moment. They have since invested huge amounts of resources and blood in holding onto their hard fought gains. To lose that now would be devastating symbolically. It would send a signal that President Assad has reclaimed his hold over the country and that the rebel movement is on its last legs.

What do we know about how many people are still there?

There are an estimated 200,000-300,000 people still inside rebel-held Aleppo, though exact numbers are very tough to come by. Many of them are elderly people who are too sick or too stubborn to leave. Living conditions are extremely tough.

Entire neighborhoods have been reduced to apocalyptic wastelands.

Basic services like running water and electricity are sporadic. Prices have soared because of the difficulty of getting in food and aid. The World Food Programme says the food security situation in Aleppo is extremely fluid with the crisis severely disrupting supply routes. It says the cost of rice has increased by 32% in three months and by 142% from a year ago.

And with the entire area now under siege, food and diesel shortages are likely imminent. That diesel is needed to power generators and those generators are needed to power hospitals.

What would surrender look like for those still inside?

There is still fresh produce in the market stalls but it is more difficult to bring into the city, and much more expensive than even a few weeks ago.

Fliers have been raining down on rebel-held areas, offering amnesty to those who turn themselves into government forces and encouraging people to leave in the next 3 months. But for most of the people I have spoken to, surrender is not an option.

Those who have stayed this long, who have endured bombardment day in and day out, have made a conscience decision to stay.

I interviewed one elderly woman in the rebel-held Suqquri neighborhood back in February. She told me that she plans to stay in Aleppo until she dies because it is her home. There are others who have stayed because they simply don't have the means to leave, but surrender is still not an option for most.

There have been numerous instances where the government has offered amnesty to people living in rebel-held areas. Typically, when people surrender, the men are separated from the women and children and the men are taken away, never to be heard from again. So while you may see some women and children and perhaps some elderly people turning themselves in to government forces, it is highly unlikely that many men will do the same.

The heart of Aleppo has been ravaged by Syria's civil war. From the ancient citadel to the bustling souk, there is little left of the historic, beautiful city that was once visited by tourists from all over the world.

Entire city blocks have been flattened by round-the-clock aerial bombardment. The buildings that are left are pockmarked with shrapnel and bullet holes.

Government-held areas are certainly in better shape than rebel-held areas.

It can be surreal to watch people celebrate a wedding party in a luxury hotel in one part of town, while just a mile away, the streets are desolate and dark with people hunkered down in basements to escape bombing raids.

When and if the Syrian civil war finally comes to an end, it will hopefully be possible to rebuild some of Aleppo's most beloved monuments and historic sites.

But the vibrant soul of the city has been decimated. And that cannot be replaced.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 18, 2016, 10:57:00 PM
QuoteThe Death of Hope in Syria
"I don't think anyone can help us," one of the last doctors in Aleppo says.

The Atlantic

You can calculate the number of people who have died in a conflict, the relative strength of various factions, the amount of territory each holds. Hope is much harder to measure. But it's no less a factor in the arithmetic of war. Hope is a bulwark of humanity. In many cases, hope is all that civilians beset by violence have left.

Consider the Syrian Civil War: Hope—for the most basic international action to ease the suffering of Syrians, let alone efforts to halt hostilities or end the war—is in especially short supply these days. The shortage is evident in the reaction this week to the images and video of a stunned, bloodied five-year-old boy being whisked from a bombed building to an ambulance. The visuals are being widely shared online, but often with dark resignation. There's little expectation that world leaders will be moved to do what's necessary to resolve the humanitarian catastrophe in Aleppo, which for months now has been starved of food, water, and medical supplies as Syrian government and rebel forces battle for control of the city.

"Watch this video from Aleppo tonight. And watch it again," the Australian journalist Sophie McNeill tweeted on Wednesday, in reference to the footage of the Syrian child. "And remind yourself that with ." This is less a call to action than a challenge to stare straight at collective inaction—and not turn away in disgust. McNeill's message has been shared thousands of times.

The shortage of hope is also evident in a letter that 15 of the last doctors in rebel-controlled eastern Aleppo recently sent to Barack Obama. The physicians spoke of horrors that haven't gone viral on the internet: attacks on medical facilities, often by suspected Russian or Syrian government warplanes, occurring roughly every 17 hours; four newborn babies suffocating to death after an explosion cut off oxygen to their incubators. The letter's signatories urged the U.S. president to exert more pressure on the various parties in the conflict to protect civilians and lift the siege on the city. But a number of doctors declined to sign the letter, believing the plea for international support to be futile. And when the BBC asked one of the signatories about that decision by her colleagues, she admitted that she didn't expect the United States to actually help either.

"We just write that letter to the world to know what's happening here. But I don't think that anyone can help us," Farida, the only remaining female OBGYN in eastern Aleppo, told the BBC. (In most media interviews, she's used only her first name for security reasons.) "Everyone is doing nothing. ...  Everyone is watching and we just see sympathy from them. But there's no work. We don't see anyone working for us. They just watch and just talk and do nothing. People here are dying every day with chlorine, and with barrels, with air strikes. The women are dying, and some women are dying when they are pregnant, and some women have miscarriages because of the air strikes. But no one helping. Just watching."

We can't say we didn't know.

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/08/aleppo-doctors-syria-boy/496427/

(https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/mt/2016/08/AP16230811499155_copy_1/lead_large.jpg?1471538833)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 18, 2016, 11:04:36 PM
QuoteMiddle East
Russia Sends Bombers to Syria Using Base in Iran

By NEIL MacFARQUHAR and DAVID E. SANGERAUG. 16, 2016
New York Times

MOSCOW — Russia launched a fleet of bombers bound for Syria on Tuesday from an Iranian air base, becoming the first foreign military to operate from Iran's soil since at least World War II.

Russian use of the base, with Iran's obvious support, appeared to set back or at least further complicate Russia's troubled relations with the United States, which has been working with Russia over how to end the Syria conflict.

While American officials said they were not surprised by the Russia-Iran military collaboration, it appeared to catch them off guard, with no solid information on the Kremlin's intentions. "I think we're still trying to assess exactly what they're doing," a State Department deputy spokesman, Mark Toner, told reporters in Washington.

The arrangement, permanent or not, enables Russia to bring more firepower to the Syrian conflict, and far greater military flexibility. Analysts said the new arrangement could also expand Moscow's political influence in the Middle East and speed the growing convergence of interests between Moscow and Tehran.

From the air base, in Hamadan, northwest Iran, the Russian bombers destroyed ammunition dumps and a variety of targets linked to the Islamic State and other groups that had been used to support militants battling in Aleppo, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement.

Historians and American officials said Tuesday that the Iranian decision to let Russia base its planes and support operations in Iran — even temporarily — was a historic one.

"This didn't even happen under the shah," said John Limbert, a former American foreign service officer who was stationed in Iran, referring to the reign of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi.

In the shah's era, there were American military advisers who moved in and out of Iran, and a series of listening posts in the country's northeast where the military and American intelligence agencies monitored the Soviet Union.

Yet the sense of sovereignty runs so deep in Iranian culture that American efforts to have a bigger presence there were repeatedly rebuffed. Mr. Limbert, who as a young foreign service officer was one of the Americans taken hostage in 1979 at the embassy in Tehran, speculated that Russia was paying handsomely for the privilege. In Iran today, he said, the prospect of gaining revenue "can create a lot of flexibility."

The bombers — too big for the air base Russia established in Syria in September — had been flying missions from Russia, a trip that will now be 1,000 miles shorter, officials said. Because they are based so much closer to the Syrian battlefields, the planes will be able to carry heavier payloads, adding new muscle to the recently faltering Syrian government effort in Aleppo.

Indeed, observers on the ground in Aleppo described a particularly heavy day of bombing, even if they could not identify the bombers. Civilians bore the brunt of the strikes. "The bombing today was intensive and massive," said Mohamed al-Ahmed, a radiologist in an Aleppo hospital reached via the messaging app Viber, who said he had counted 28 victims.

Beyond any tactical advantages, launching Russian bombers from Iran also seemed to be part of a grander plan by President Vladimir V. Putin to cobble together a coalition to fight in Syria with Russia at its center. The use of the Iranian base comes on the heels of Mr. Putin's recent détente with Turkey and amid Russian-American talks on cooperating more in the fight against the Islamic State in Syria.

"I think what Russia is trying to do is put together a broader coalition that goes beyond Russian-Iranian cooperation," said Andrey V. Kortunov, the director general of the Russian International Affairs Council. "They consider this operation as another bargaining chip in their negotiations with the West."

The new level of Russian-Iranian cooperation raises questions about whether the United States made a larger strategic error when, in choosing not to create "safe zones" or conduct major air operations over Syria, it left a window for the Russians to enter the war. President Obama warned in October that Moscow would be sucked into a "quagmire" as it sought to prop up Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad.

Mr. Toner, the State Department deputy spokesman, said the Russian activity could violate a United Nations Security Council resolution that, he said, "prohibits the supply, sale and transfer of combat aircraft to Iran unless approved in advance by the U.N. Security Council."

But it is not clear how that resolution would apply to combat aircraft flown by Russian pilots and not "transferred" to Iran. Mr. Toner said. "I just don't have a definitive answer. I know our lawyers are looking at this."

Mr. Assad's position, dire when Russia entered the fray, was greatly strengthened, though his forces have faltered lately — one reason for basing Russia's bombers closer. More important, the Russian entry has greatly limited American options.

Now, any American-led air operation would have to be coordinated with Russia to avoid conflicts over airspace, and the Pentagon has been highly suspicious of such coordination. An effort by Secretary of State John Kerry to work out some kind of enhanced cooperation — to fight the Islamic State and to provide humanitarian access to besieged cities — has failed to produce results.

On Monday, Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defense minister, said that Moscow and Washington were coming closer to an agreement on Syria that would let the two sides fight together. Moscow has felt pressure to reach a political settlement as the humanitarian situation has deteriorated in Aleppo and Syrian government forces have had a series of setbacks there and in Latakia.

The new arrangement seems to have brought Tehran and Moscow into greater accord on Mr. Assad, who has not had absolute support from Russia. "The Iranians have been all in on Assad, and I think the Russians have now moved in that direction," said Cliff Kupchan, a specialist on Russia and Iran at the Eurasia Group, a political analysis firm in Washington.

The new flights help solidify Russia's presence in the Middle East, where its roster of allies has dwindled since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia "now views Iran as a powerful ally in the region and a stable source of income for its state industries," said Konstantin von Eggert, a political analyst and commentator on Dozhd, a Russian independent television channel. "Tehran is a rich anti-American regime in a strategic region important to U.S. interests. What could be better for Putin?"

Ostensibly sent to fight terrorist groups, Russian forces in the air, joined by Iran and the Shiite militant group Hezbollah on the ground, have largely concentrated on shoring up government forces and punishing rebel groups, some supported by the United States.

But even with that assistance, the Syrian forces have been losing ground in Aleppo recently, highlighting the limits of an aerial bombing strategy to support a weary government army and its foreign allies. "In military terms, the situation around Aleppo is quite difficult, so there is a need to make the strikes much stronger," said Aleksei Arbatov, an analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center. "This decision constitutes a sharp intensification of our operation."

Underscoring the government's weakness, the Islamic State recently swatted away a heavily heralded attack by Syrian forces on Raqqa, the militant group's de facto capital.

The statement from the Russian Defense Ministry said that Tupolev Tu-22MS bombers and Sukhoi-34 fighter-bombers took off from the base at Hamadan to strike targets in Syria in the provinces of Aleppo, Idlib and Deir al-Zour. It said the planes bombed Islamic State facilities as well as those controlled by Fath al-Sham, the Qaeda-affiliated group formerly known as the Nusra Front.

The Defense Ministry said the bombers hit arms depots, a training camp and three command-and-control points and killed numerous militants.

Also on Tuesday, Russia held naval drills in the eastern Mediterranean and Caspian Seas with ships equipped with the same type of Kalibr cruise missiles used to strike Syria when the Russian operation began last fall.

Adm. Vladimir Komoyedov, the head of the defense and security committee in Russia's Parliament, said that deploying from the Iranian air base would save on costs, a crucial advantage as Russia drags through a long recession.

"The matter of warfare expenditures is at the top of the agenda today," he was quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency.

It is not clear how the Russian-Iranian agreement was negotiated, but there was no denying the historic, and somewhat ironic, nature of the agreement.

"The irony is that the revolutionaries denounced the shah as a foreign puppet," said Mr. Limbert, now a professor at the United States Naval Academy at Annapolis. "But these guys have done something that the shah never did."
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on August 18, 2016, 11:45:12 PM
Kurds hit for the first time

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/18/syrian-planes-bomb-kurdish-held-area-for-first-time-reports
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on August 19, 2016, 01:29:40 AM
This whole Middle East adventure of the US after 9/11 will be remembered as one the dumbest move made by an empire, ever.

If you go into a region, destroy the power structure and create an immense power vacuum then you better do it to move in yourself and conquer stuff for the long term, otherwise others will do it.

First Bush created the whole mess in Iraq with being too active in the region, then Obama did a 180 turn toward inaction thereby handing both Iraq and apparently Syria over to Iran, with the Iran-Russia alliance as the sugar topping.

The mind boggles.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on August 19, 2016, 06:20:50 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 19, 2016, 01:29:40 AM
This whole Middle East adventure of the US after 9/11 will be remembered as one the dumbest move made by an empire, ever.

If you go into a region, destroy the power structure and create an immense power vacuum then you better do it to move in yourself and conquer stuff for the long term, otherwise others will do it.

First Bush created the whole mess in Iraq with being too active in the region, then Obama did a 180 turn toward inaction thereby handing both Iraq and apparently Syria over to Iran, with the Iran-Russia alliance as the sugar topping.

The mind boggles.

Iran and Russia are welcome to them. It was not like the region was headed in an awesome trajectory anyway. The power structures we didn't destroy seemed to fall apart pretty well on their own. I mean what does Tunisia and Libya have to do with Iraq?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on August 19, 2016, 10:59:19 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 19, 2016, 01:29:40 AM
This whole Middle East adventure of the US after 9/11 will be remembered as one the dumbest move made by an empire, ever.

If you go into a region, destroy the power structure and create an immense power vacuum then you better do it to move in yourself and conquer stuff for the long term, otherwise others will do it.

First Bush created the whole mess in Iraq with being too active in the region, then Obama did a 180 turn toward inaction thereby handing both Iraq and apparently Syria over to Iran, with the Iran-Russia alliance as the sugar topping.

The mind boggles.

Region?

We went into Iraq, that is a rather particular nation, not a region.

And while we certainly handled it pretty terribly, this idea that the country was sunshine and roses before we went in and fucked it up is simply idiotic. It was a fucking mess of oppression, and the "stability" that was so vaunted was illusory and temporary.

Iraq was not fundamentally stable and the US screwed it up - it was fundamentally unstable and the US tore off the band-aids. That doesn't absolve us of responsibility for doing so, but this idea that if only the US had simply let Saddam defy the UN and his agreements with the US, the "region" would be great and peaceful is fucking crazy talk.

The fundamental problems there have nothing to do with the US. The rise of Islamic radicalism and sectarian violence was coming one way or another. The war for what "Islam" means has been brewing for a long time, and there are forces involved that have little or nothing to do with the US per se. Of course, the Shrubbery managed to completely mis-read that reality and totally misplay how to handle it (not that I am sure I have any better ideas...nor does anyone else as far as I can tell, but certainly hindsight suggests that the chosen course of action was pretty terrible in execution of nothing else).
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on September 01, 2016, 10:27:50 PM

https://www.yahoo.com/news/turkish-syria-offensive-not-stop-until-threats-removed-090846227.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/turkish-syria-offensive-not-stop-until-threats-removed-090846227.html)

Quote
(https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/ErFyh.eSjFNnpF1WaOuZDg--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9NDUwO2g9MzAwO2lsPXBsYW5l/http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/Reuters/2016-08-31T144425Z_1_LYNXNPEC7U18X_RTROPTP_2_MIDEAST-CRISIS-SYRIA-TURKEY.JPG.cf.jpg)

A member of the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) patrols in the border town of Jarablus, Syria, August 31, 2016. REUTERS/Umit Bektas



By David Dolan

JARABLUS, Syria (Reuters) - Turkey wants to clear Islamic State from a 90-km (56-mile) stretch of territory on the Syrian side of its border, an official said on Wednesday, a week after it launched an incursion that has strained ties with the United States.

Operation "Euphrates Shield", in which Turkish troops and tanks entered Syria in support of rebels for the first time, began on Aug. 24 with the swift capture of Jarablus, a town a few km (miles) inside Syria that was held by the militant group.

Turkish-backed rebels patrolled the town on motorbikes on Wednesday as children played in dusty alleys.

The bulk of Turkish-backed forces have since moved further south into territory held by militias loyal to the Kurdish-aligned Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition supported by Washington in its bid to defeat the jihadists.

Turkish clashes with SDF loyalists have alarmed the United States, which has described the Turkish action as "unacceptable" because it hindered the battle against Islamic State.

But Turkey, which is fighting a Kurdish insurgency at home, says that, while it remains intent on clearing Islamist militants from its border region, it also wants to prevent Kurdish militias from seizing territory in their wake.

Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said the goal was to drive Islamic State from a 90-km strip of land along the border with Turkey, which has been buffeted by a spate of bombings, blamed on the group, that have killed scores.

"Starting from Jarablus, the cleansing of this region is our priority," Kalin told a news briefing. "We have already cleansed 400 square km successfully."

Turkey has long said it wants a "buffer zone" in the area, although it has not used the term during this incursion. As well as driving out the ultra-hardline Islamists, it also wants to prevent Kurdish forces taking territory that will let them join up cantons they control in northeast and northwest Syria.

Turkey frets that seizing such a broad swathe of territory could embolden Kurdish PKK insurgents on Turkish soil.

THUD OF EXPLOSIONS

U.S. officials on Tuesday welcomed what appeared to be a pause in fighting between Turkish forces and rival militias, after days when the border area reverberated with Turkish warplanes roaring into Syria and artillery pounded Syrian sites, saying it was hitting Kurdish fighters.

In Washington, a Pentagon spokesman told reporters on Wednesday there had been calm in northern Syria in the past 24 hours.

"We continue to work very closely with our coalition partner and ally Turkey in trying to address their concerns about this situation," spokesman Peter Cook said. "Likewise we continue to work with our partners in Syria to try and keep the focus where it should be," he added.

On Wednesday only the occasional thud of explosions in the distance was audible along the Turkish frontier.

Ankara has denied statements from Kurdish fighters in Syria that a temporary truce had been agreed, saying it would not make any pact with the Kurdish YPG militia, a powerful force in the SDF coalition, as it considers it a terrorist body.

"The Turkish Republic is a sovereign state, a legitimate state. It cannot be equated with a terrorist organization," EU Affairs Minister Omer Celik told state-run Anadolu news agency, adding this meant there could be no "agreement between the two."

Turkey has demanded that the YPG cross the Euphrates river into a Kurdish-controlled canton in Syria's northeast. U.S. officials have threatened to withdraw backing for the YPG if it did not meet that demand, but have said that the Kurdish group has mostly done so.

Turkey's EU affairs minister said some Kurdish fighters were still on the western side and called that "unacceptable."

Eager to avoid more clashes between Turkey and U.S.-backed Syrian fighters, the Pentagon said the U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State was establishing communications channels to better coordinate in a "crowded battlespace" in Syria.

As well as battling Islamic State in Syria, Turkey has been rounding up suspected militants at home. Interior Minister Efkan Ala said the authorities had arrested 865 people since the start of 2016, more than half of them foreigners, preventing them crossing through Turkey's long border with Syria and Iraq.

(Additional reporting by Asli Kandemir in Istanbul, Ercan Gurses in Ankara and Idrees Ali in Washington.; Writing by Edmund Blair; Editing by Nick Tattersall and Anna Willard)



(https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/BbeLuXkc52ZQnnJLuHuSVA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9MTAyNDtoPTY4NjtpbD1wbGFuZQ--/http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/afp.com/25c3c2264f320e04dfa293bcacf8f22ba46eb8d5.jpg)


Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on September 01, 2016, 10:38:15 PM
Neo-Ottoman Empire can't be worse then what they have right now.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on September 02, 2016, 01:21:45 AM
Wait, I got a little behind on all the latest Syria goings on.  Is Turkey fighting on the same side as Russia, or has it in effect started a proxy war against Russia in Syria? :unsure:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malicious Intent on September 02, 2016, 03:22:46 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 02, 2016, 01:21:45 AM
Wait, I got a little behind on all the latest Syria goings on.  Is Turkey fighting on the same side as Russia, or has it in effect started a proxy war against Russia in Syria? :unsure:

Turkey seems to currently work directly against US interests in Syria by primarily targeting the YPG. According to Spiegel Online, IS has already profited from this by retaking a few villages.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on September 02, 2016, 03:26:40 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 02, 2016, 01:21:45 AM
Wait, I got a little behind on all the latest Syria goings on.  Is Turkey fighting on the same side as Russia, or has it in effect started a proxy war against Russia in Syria? :unsure:

They are fighting on their own side like the other 35 sides in this conflict. I am guessing their general plan must depend on their overall ambition in the Middle East. If they just want to be left alone to ethnic cleanse the Kurds then they will be looking to strike a sweet deal for abandoning their Syrian opposition allies they are propping up now, once Assad has retaken the rest of the country.

If Erdogan wants to be Da Shit of the region he will probably want to remove Assad and Saudi as well as Iranian influence in Syria, but that seems highly unlikely considering they'd have to go through Russia for that.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Martinus on September 02, 2016, 03:27:01 AM
Yeah, Turkey and Russia are now best buddies, after Erdogan paying the oath of fealty to Putin few months ago.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on September 02, 2016, 07:38:10 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 02, 2016, 03:27:01 AM
Yeah, Turkey and Russia are now best buddies, after Erdogan paying the oath of fealty to Putin few months ago.

Edrogan's foreign policy hasn't exactly been consistent though. If he thinks he sees an opportunity to aggrandize himself and Turkey he'll probably take it.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on September 13, 2016, 08:10:55 PM
Video of Russia troops on the ground in Syria, nr the Castello road, coming under fire as they give a live briefing to their boss in Moscow:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-37357955 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-37357955)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: 11B4V on September 13, 2016, 08:17:13 PM
Anatoly, Anatoly, are you there? :unsure:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on September 13, 2016, 08:20:01 PM
I find Russian military uniforms to be dorky.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: alfred russel on September 13, 2016, 08:31:05 PM
Quote from: Tamas on September 02, 2016, 03:26:40 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 02, 2016, 01:21:45 AM
Wait, I got a little behind on all the latest Syria goings on.  Is Turkey fighting on the same side as Russia, or has it in effect started a proxy war against Russia in Syria? :unsure:

They are fighting on their own side like the other 35 sides in this conflict. I am guessing their general plan must depend on their overall ambition in the Middle East. If they just want to be left alone to ethnic cleanse the Kurds then they will be looking to strike a sweet deal for abandoning their Syrian opposition allies they are propping up now, once Assad has retaken the rest of the country.

If Erdogan wants to be Da Shit of the region he will probably want to remove Assad and Saudi as well as Iranian influence in Syria, but that seems highly unlikely considering they'd have to go through Russia for that.

I look at it like this:

Turkey: Can't abide Kurds or Assad winning.
Russia: Can't abide Assad losing.
USA: Can't abide ISIS winning.
Europe: Wants refugees to stop coming.

The parties of course have other interests, but those are the biggest concerns.

Turkey, Russia, and the US have informally accepted a modus vivendi that maintains a stalemate. Turkey needs to mess with the Kurds as they have a viable chance to establish an autonomous area, Russia needed to back up Assad when he was in trouble, and we rain death from above on ISIS because that is what we do.

Europe has to deal with the refugees.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 13, 2016, 08:35:26 PM
Quote from: mongers on September 13, 2016, 08:10:55 PM
Video of Russia troops on the ground in Syria, nr the Castello road, coming under fire as they give a live briefing to their boss in Moscow:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-37357955 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-37357955)

:lol:

"If you can't talk, son, just key your handset twice. Over."
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 13, 2016, 08:39:16 PM
Seriously, let the Russians have their little Mediterranean excursion, and let their adventurism sink them in the sand.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on September 13, 2016, 08:42:26 PM
Although, I might get a giant war boner if the joint US/Russian airstrikes actually happen against ISIS.

Warthogs and Frogfoots? I need clean pants.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 13, 2016, 08:47:48 PM
Barf, man. 

You can't soar with the eagles by flying with turkeys.  The only time I want to see join US/antisemite cossack slut airstrikes is against aliens.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on September 13, 2016, 08:51:35 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 13, 2016, 08:47:48 PM
Barf, man. 

You can't soar with the eagles by flying with turkeys.  The only time I want to see join US/antisemite cossack slut airstrikes is against aliens.

Okay, we can bomb Mexicans then.  :)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 13, 2016, 08:53:53 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 13, 2016, 08:51:35 PM
Okay, we can bomb Mexicans then.  :)

No, we can bomb Mexicans.  They can bomb whatever passes for Mexicans over on their side of the planet, Ubekibekibekibekstanstan or whatever.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on September 13, 2016, 08:54:42 PM
 :lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: 11B4V on September 13, 2016, 08:58:23 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 13, 2016, 08:53:53 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 13, 2016, 08:51:35 PM
Okay, we can bomb Mexicans then.  :)

No, we can bomb Mexicans.  They can bomb whatever passes for Mexicans over on their side of the planet, Ubekibekibekibekstanstan or whatever.

If it looks like a beaner, it probably is a beaner.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on September 13, 2016, 08:59:07 PM
Bomb Tim.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on September 13, 2016, 09:00:10 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 13, 2016, 08:35:26 PM
Quote from: mongers on September 13, 2016, 08:10:55 PM
Video of Russia troops on the ground in Syria, nr the Castello road, coming under fire as they give a live briefing to their boss in Moscow:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-37357955 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-37357955)

:lol:

"If you can't talk, son, just key your handset twice. Over."
Funny how those two dudes felt like they couldn't go to a safe place until the big wig asked them too, 20 seconds after gunfire starts.  The civilized world would be in trouble when Russian military learns how to empower its soldiers with common sense.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: 11B4V on September 13, 2016, 09:02:01 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 13, 2016, 09:00:10 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 13, 2016, 08:35:26 PM
Quote from: mongers on September 13, 2016, 08:10:55 PM
Video of Russia troops on the ground in Syria, nr the Castello road, coming under fire as they give a live briefing to their boss in Moscow:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-37357955 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-37357955)

:lol:

"If you can't talk, son, just key your handset twice. Over."
Funny how those two dudes felt like they couldn't go to a safe place until the big wig asked them too, 20 seconds after gunfire starts.  The civilized world would be in trouble when Russian military learns how to empower its soldiers with common sense.
:P
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on September 13, 2016, 09:05:13 PM
Now I sorta want to re-read Red Storm Rising.

C-in-C West is under arrest
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on September 13, 2016, 09:09:35 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 13, 2016, 08:42:26 PM
Although, I might get a giant war boner if the joint US/Russian airstrikes actually happen against ISIS.

Warthogs and Frogfoots? I need clean pants.

They pulled out all of the Frogfeet awhile ago.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic1.fjcdn.com%2Fcomments%2FThe%2Bwarmth%2Bof%2Bthe%2Bsun%2Bgave%2Bthe%2Bman%2Ba%2Bsense%2B_2ef3ee90975f1f5a847110d7b8fa2fc1.png&hash=4b8b4b755ed2331253f3caf843984994d97e00fe)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 13, 2016, 09:11:14 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 13, 2016, 09:00:10 PM
Funny how those two dudes felt like they couldn't go to a safe place until the big wig asked them too, 20 seconds after gunfire starts.  The civilized world would be in trouble when Russian military learns how to empower its soldiers with common sense.

I remember attending a presentation on Soviet military doctrine back in the 1980s, I think it was at Origins, even...presenter said the first order of business is to take out the Soviet APC with the most antennas, and the rest of the column will freeze like baby deer.   :lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on September 13, 2016, 09:43:37 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on September 13, 2016, 09:09:35 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 13, 2016, 08:42:26 PM
Although, I might get a giant war boner if the joint US/Russian airstrikes actually happen against ISIS.

Warthogs and Frogfoots? I need clean pants.

They pulled out all of the Frogfeet awhile ago.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic1.fjcdn.com%2Fcomments%2FThe%2Bwarmth%2Bof%2Bthe%2Bsun%2Bgave%2Bthe%2Bman%2Ba%2Bsense%2B_2ef3ee90975f1f5a847110d7b8fa2fc1.png&hash=4b8b4b755ed2331253f3caf843984994d97e00fe)

:(

I like Frogfeet. And Fencers.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on September 14, 2016, 12:04:38 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 13, 2016, 09:00:10 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 13, 2016, 08:35:26 PM
Quote from: mongers on September 13, 2016, 08:10:55 PM
Video of Russia troops on the ground in Syria, nr the Castello road, coming under fire as they give a live briefing to their boss in Moscow:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-37357955 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-37357955)

:lol:

"If you can't talk, son, just key your handset twice. Over."
Funny how those two dudes felt like they couldn't go to a safe place until the big wig asked them too, 20 seconds after gunfire starts.  The civilized world would be in trouble when Russian military learns how to empower its soldiers with common sense.

The last time that happened was a hundred years ago.  And they all just walked home.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on September 14, 2016, 08:23:23 AM
I read that the Germans and Austro-Hungarians observed that the Russians would fight with super-human fanaticism right up until their officers were all dead. Then they would all surrender en masse. Definitely a different military culture.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on September 14, 2016, 08:43:40 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on September 13, 2016, 09:09:35 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 13, 2016, 08:42:26 PM
Although, I might get a giant war boner if the joint US/Russian airstrikes actually happen against ISIS.

Warthogs and Frogfoots? I need clean pants.

They pulled out all of the Frogfeet awhile ago.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic1.fjcdn.com%2Fcomments%2FThe%2Bwarmth%2Bof%2Bthe%2Bsun%2Bgave%2Bthe%2Bman%2Ba%2Bsense%2B_2ef3ee90975f1f5a847110d7b8fa2fc1.png&hash=4b8b4b755ed2331253f3caf843984994d97e00fe)

I swear I saw a Frogfoot on the news the other day bombing rebel positions in Aleppo.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: 11B4V on September 14, 2016, 07:08:44 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 14, 2016, 08:43:40 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on September 13, 2016, 09:09:35 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 13, 2016, 08:42:26 PM
Although, I might get a giant war boner if the joint US/Russian airstrikes actually happen against ISIS.

Warthogs and Frogfoots? I need clean pants.

They pulled out all of the Frogfeet awhile ago.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic1.fjcdn.com%2Fcomments%2FThe%2Bwarmth%2Bof%2Bthe%2Bsun%2Bgave%2Bthe%2Bman%2Ba%2Bsense%2B_2ef3ee90975f1f5a847110d7b8fa2fc1.png&hash=4b8b4b755ed2331253f3caf843984994d97e00fe)

I swear I saw a Frogfoot on the news the other day bombing rebel positions in Aleppo.

https://sputniknews.com/military/20160504/1039084641/russian-jets-return.html
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on September 14, 2016, 08:11:20 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 14, 2016, 08:43:40 AM

I swear I saw a Frogfoot on the news the other day bombing rebel positions in Aleppo.

Syrians probably have some.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on September 17, 2016, 05:59:38 PM
Oops, US giving close air support to ISIS:

Quote
Syria conflict: US air strikes 'kill dozens of government troops'
17 September 2016

The US-led coalition has admitted its planes carried out an attack in eastern Syria that the Russian army says killed at least 62 Syrian troops fighting IS.

The US said its planes had halted the attack in Deir al-Zour when informed of the Syrian presence.

The strikes allowed IS to advance, said Russia, which called an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council.

The Russians earlier said the current ceasefire in Syria was in danger of collapse and the US would be to blame.

The cessation of hostilities does not include attacks by the US on
The US Central Command statement said the coalition believed it was attacking positions of so-called Islamic State and the raids were "halted immediately when coalition officials were informed by Russian officials that it was possible the personnel and vehicles targeted were part of the Syrian military".

It said the "Combined Air Operations Center had earlier informed Russian counterparts of the upcoming strike".

It added: "Syria is a complex situation with various military forces and militias in close proximity, but coalition forces would not intentionally strike a known Syrian military unit. The coalition will review this strike and the circumstances surrounding it to see if any lessons can be learned."

Russia's defence ministry earlier said that if the US air strikes did turn out to be an error, it would be because of Washington's refusal to co-ordinate military action with Moscow.

Only if the current ceasefire - which began on Monday - holds for seven days, will the US and Russia begin co-ordinated action against the Jabhat Fateh al-Sham group, which was previously known as the al-Nusra Front, and IS.

The Russian defence ministry quoted a statement by Syrian army general command as saying that the four coalition air strikes on Syrian troops had allowed IS to advance.

Full article here:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37398721 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37398721)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on September 25, 2016, 03:51:02 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/25/russia-accused-war-crimes-syria-un-security-council-aleppo

QuoteRussia accused of war crimes in Syria at UN security council session

Russia has been directly and repeatedly accused of war crimes at the UN security council in an unusually blunt session, as hopes of any form of ceasefire were flattened by the scale and ferocity of the Syrian regime's assault on eastern Aleppo.

The war crimes accusations centred on the widespread use of bunker-busting and incendiary bombs on the 275,000 civilians living in the rebel-held east of the city, weapons that Moscow's accusers say were dropped by Russian aircraft.

"Bunker-busting bombs, more suited to destroying military installations, are now destroying homes, decimating bomb shelters, crippling, maiming, killing dozens, if not hundreds," Matthew Rycroft, the UK ambassador to the UN said during the emergency security council session on Syria.

"Incendiary munitions, indiscriminate in their reach, are being dropped on to civilian areas so that, yet again, Aleppo is burning. And to cap it all, water supplies, so vital to millions, are now being targeted, depriving water to those most in need. In short, it is difficult to deny that Russia is partnering with the Syrian regime to carry out war crimes
."

Earlier in the day, the UK foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, said: "Putin's regime is not just handing Assad the revolver; he is in some instances firing the revolver. The Russians themselves are actually engaged."

Save the Children quoted doctors in Aleppo on Sunday as saying that about half the casualties in the city were children.

At the security council meeting, Rycroft's French counterpart, François Delattre, agreed the use of bunker-busters and incendiaries on urban residential areas were war crimes and insisted "these crimes must not go unpunished". Delattre said Aleppo was becoming another Srebrenica or Guernica and that if nothing was done to stop the assault "this week will go down in history as the one in which diplomacy failed and barbarism triumphed".

The US ambassador, Samantha Power, highlighted the targeting of three out of four centres in eastern Aleppo used by the volunteer emergency services – the White Helmets – with the consequence that lifesaving equipment had been destroyed and "those buried in rubble in Aleppo are much more likely to die in the rubble".

She said while Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, had been talking about restoring peace in Syria at council meetings last week, incendiary bombs were being loaded on to Russian planes in preparation for the new offensive.

"What Russia is sponsoring and doing is not counter-terrorism. It is barbarism," Power said, urging other national representatives to speak out. "History will not look kindly on security council members who stay silent in the face of this carnage," she said, adding that it was also not the time to use the passive voice and observe that Aleppo was being bombed. It was time, she said, to say who was doing the bombing.

In response, the Russian envoy, Vitaly Churkin, blamed the breakdown of a week-long, US-Russia-brokered ceasefire on rebels, including the "moderate opposition" backed by the west. Extremist groups in eastern Aleppo were holding its population hostage, Churkin claimed, stopping them from leaving and using them as human shields.

He praised the Assad regime in Damascus for its "admirable restraint", claiming it was in fact Syrian government forces that were surrounded and were only firing on eastern Aleppo when they had been fired upon. "The Syrian regime only uses air power to get terrorists out of the city with minimal civilian casualties," Churkin said, as he dismissed reports of mass killing in eastern Aleppo as fake, using footage from government-held western Aleppo.

The UN special envoy on Syria, Staffan de Mistura, said the ceasefire had significantly reduced the level of fighting, allowing Aleppo residents to "come out of their shelters and houses to celebrate Eid on the streets".

He said: "People started to become cautiously optimistic," but added the ceasefire was broken by bombing a day before the end of its first week "when five districts were hit reportedly with five severe airstrikes" following the Syrian government's unilateral declaration of an end to the truce.

"Since that fateful day, we have seen the situation in eastern Aleppo deteriorate to new heights of horror," de Mistura said. He said the airstrikes were reported to have killed 213 people in Aleppo province, 139 of them in eastern Aleppo.

De Mistura said: "We heard the word 'unprecedented' – in quantity and also in scale and type – in [descriptions of] the types of bombing. We have seen reports, videos and pictures of reported use of incendiary bombs that create fireballs of such intensity that they light up the pitch darkness in eastern Aleppo, as though it was actually daylight. We now hear of bunker-busting bombs being used and see pictures of large craters in the earth much larger than in previous aerial bombings.

"If it is confirmed, the systematic indiscriminate use of such weapons in areas where civilians and civilian infrastructure are present may amount to war crimes."

De Mistura said he had been asked why, in the face of such an onslaught and failure of diplomacy, he did not resign. He said he would not do so "because any sign of me resigning would be a signal that the international community is abandoning the Syrians, and we will not abandon the Syrians, and neither will you".

Tom Fletcher, the UK's former ambassador to Lebanon, said the change in tone used at the security council on Sunday marked a new phase in the west's response to the conflict, jettisoning residual hopes of making a deal with Russia.

"Normally diplomatic language is cautious: even the Syria contact group's statement yesterday only spoke of patience with Russia being 'not unlimited'. But today's statements in the security council from France, the US and UK are more raw, and more angry. They show that the recent policy – admittedly more in hope than expectation – of trusting Russia to restrain Assad is now buried in the rubble of Aleppo. This signals a new phase. Assad has calculated that US elections give him a free hand to massacre. We will now see whether or not he has underestimated US readiness to protect the most vulnerable."
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on September 26, 2016, 05:04:17 AM
How is there no bigger concern about this whole thing?

the US and Russia may not be shooting directly at each other, but I don't recall them every be so close doing so during the Cold War - their own airforces are in the same conflict, supporting opposing sides. Technically, they are at war.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on September 26, 2016, 07:18:38 AM
QuoteTechnically, they are at war.

I don't think that word means what you think it means.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on September 26, 2016, 07:49:29 AM
Quote from: Berkut on September 26, 2016, 07:18:38 AM
QuoteTechnically, they are at war.

I don't think that word means what you think it means.

Yeah, I meant practically :P
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on September 26, 2016, 07:59:41 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 26, 2016, 07:49:29 AM
Quote from: Berkut on September 26, 2016, 07:18:38 AM
QuoteTechnically, they are at war.

I don't think that word means what you think it means.

Yeah, I meant practically :P

I don't think that word means what you think it means either...
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on September 26, 2016, 08:13:07 AM
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37473098

QuoteSyria conflict: US and UK rhetoric 'unacceptable' - Russia

Russia has criticised the US and UK for using "unacceptable" tone and rhetoric in speeches on Syria at the UN, after being accused of "barbarism".

On Sunday, US permanent representative Samantha Power said Russian and Syrian forces were "laying waste" to besieged rebel-held areas of the city of Aleppo.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that such language might damage efforts to end the five-year civil war.

Activists meanwhile reported dozens of fresh air strikes on Aleppo overnight.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said at least two civilians had been killed, while a rescue worker accused the Syrian and Russian air forces of using munitions containing phosphorus and napalm, and cluster bombs.

At least 124 people are believed to have been killed in rebel-held Aleppo since last week, when a truce brokered by the US and Russia collapsed and the Syrian military announced the start of an operation to take full control of the city.

He alleged that they were committing war crimes by using "bunker-busting bombs to destroy underground shelters, dropping incendiary weapons indiscriminately on civilian areas, and targeting the city's water supplies.

Ms Power told the meeting: "Instead of pursuing peace, Russia and Assad make war. Instead of helping get life-saving aid to civilians, Russia and Assad are bombing the humanitarian convoys, hospitals, and first responders who are trying desperately to keep people alive."

"What Russia is sponsoring and doing is not counterterrorism; it is barbarism," she added.

Pro-Kremlin media in Russia have been gripped by the discussions on Syria at the UN Security Council, but they offered little comment on the accusations levelled against Moscow.

Instead, they dismissed the charges as "groundless" and hailed the response of Russian envoy Vitaly Churkin. "Both US and UK permanent representatives were lavish in criticising Moscow and Damascus, but received a firm response," said Gazprom-owned NTV.

State-owned newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta accused the US and its allies of trying to "exert pressure on Damascus and Moscow, while doing nothing to meet their own obligations".

Russian ambassador Vitaly Churkin blamed the unravelling of the truce deal on the US, saying it had failed to convince mainstream rebels to distance themselves from "terrorist" groups, especially the al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat Fatah al-Sham.

Mr Peskov also rejected the Western criticism at a news conference on Monday.

"We note that the tone and rhetoric used by official representatives from the UK and US is generally unacceptable and it can seriously damage the settlement process and our bilateral relations, but in the interests of the higher ideas of settlement we are minded to detach ourselves from unnecessary emotion," he said.

The Kremlin spokesman acknowledged that the truce deal had been "not very effective", but insisted that Moscow "definitely remains hopeful, and most importantly it
retains the political will to apply as much effort as possible to find a steady path for political settlement in Syria
".

But he also warned that "terrorists" had used the truce to "regroup, replenish their arsenals and obviously prepare for offensive actions".
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 26, 2016, 10:15:34 AM
Anybody catch King Abdullah II on 60 Minutes last night?

"Doesn't it frustrate you that US presidents seem to think they know more about your region than you do?"
*shrug* "You see the train wreck coming...can only express your views so much."
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on September 27, 2016, 02:17:26 PM
Aleppo is now looking a lot like Grozny.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on September 27, 2016, 08:47:21 PM
Quote from: Tamas on September 26, 2016, 05:04:17 AM
How is there no bigger concern about this whole thing?

the US and Russia may not be shooting directly at each other, but I don't recall them every be so close doing so during the Cold War - their own airforces are in the same conflict, supporting opposing sides. Technically, they are at war.

Russians flew combat missions in Korea against UN (mostly American) forces.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 27, 2016, 08:56:07 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on September 27, 2016, 08:47:21 PM
in Korea against UN (mostly American) forces.

Really?  The UN forces were really mostly American?  Huh.  Go fig.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on September 27, 2016, 09:38:44 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 26, 2016, 10:15:34 AM
Anybody catch King Abdullah II on 60 Minutes last night?

"Doesn't it frustrate you that US presidents seem to think they know more about your region than you do?"
*shrug* "You see the train wreck coming...can only express your views so much."

Yeah.  Very clever of the man to train with his soldiers like that.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 27, 2016, 09:41:18 PM
Hoya Saxa
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 27, 2016, 09:54:46 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 27, 2016, 09:41:18 PM
Hoya Saxa

Found out today a guy at work went to school with him, was 1 year behind.  Said he's as nice as you'd expect.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on September 28, 2016, 08:11:10 PM
He's also a Star Trek nerd.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on October 05, 2016, 03:12:26 AM
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/10/04/russia-sends-more-air-defense-missiles-to-syria.html

QuoteRussia sends more air defense missiles to Syria

MOSCOW –  The Russian military said Tuesday it had beefed up its forces in Syria with state-of-the-art air defense missiles, an announcement that follows Washington's move to suspend contacts with Russia over Syria.

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said a battery of the S-300 air defense missile systems had been deployed to Syria to protect a Russian facility in the Syrian port of Tartus and Russian navy ships off the Mediterranean coast. Tartus is the only naval supply facility Russia has outside the former Soviet Union.

The deployment adds more punch to the Russian military force in Syria, which already includes long-range S-400 missile defense systems and an array of other surface-to-air missiles at the Hemeimeem air base in Syria's coastal province of Latakia.

Russia has conducted an air campaign in support of Syrian President Bashar Assad since Sept. 30 2015, saving his army from imminent defeat and helping it win key ground.

The S-300 deployment was announced a day after the U.S. announced it was suspending direct diplomatic contacts with Russia on ending the war in Syria. Washington's decision followed the collapse of the Russia-U.S.-brokered cease-fire in Syria and the Syrian army's onslaught on Aleppo backed by Russian warplanes.

While Washington put diplomatic contacts on hold, it has maintained a military-to-military dialogue intended to prevent incidents in the air between Russian and the U.S-led coalition aircraft over Syria.

Amid the rising U.S.-Russian tensions, the new Russian missile deployment seems intended to send a warning signal to the U.S.

Russia reacted nervously last month when aircraft of the U.S.-led coalition struck Syrian army troops near Deir el-Zour. Damascus said 60 Syrian soldiers died in the air raid. Washington said the strike was launched by mistake, but Moscow has questioned the U.S. explanation.

The S-300, a sophisticated long-range system capable of striking enemy aircraft and cruise missiles up to 250 kilometers (155 miles) away, could cover other areas in Syria along with Tartus.

Konashenkov sought to down play the deployment, saying "the S-300 is exclusively a defensive system that doesn't threaten anyone."

"It's not quite clear why the deployment of the S-300 in Syria has so worried our Western colleagues
," he said.

In a sharp attack on Washington, Konashenkov also charged that the U.S.-led action against the Islamic State group was merely an "imitation" that has failed to prevent the IS expansion.

Like other Russian officials, he blamed Washington for the collapse of the U.S.-Russian truce in Syria. He attributed the cease-fire's downfall to the U.S.'s failure to force moderate rebels to break ties with the al-Qaida branch in Syria, which has recently changed its name from Jabhat al-Nusra to Jabhat Fatah al-Sham.

"It's time for our American partners to publicly recognize that practically all Syrian 'opposition' nurtured and controlled by them is an inalienable part of the al-Qaida," Konashenkov said.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 05, 2016, 04:32:58 AM
I repeat: the world should be much more freaked out on this. The first time American and Russian armed forces are officially involved on opposing sides of the same conflict.

This has every chance of going horribly wrong. The US-backed side cannot win without defeating the Russian-backed side, and vice versa. I very much hope there is an end game planned for at least one of these two because if they just make it up as they go, this will not end well.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on October 05, 2016, 04:53:14 AM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FTeP8yaW.png%255Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FTeP8yaW.png&hash=ecbc7fe775cfb71ad13f97e2bce8f60de8198ef1)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 05, 2016, 05:24:47 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 05, 2016, 04:32:58 AM
I repeat: the world should be much more freaked out on this. The first time American and Russian armed forces are officially involved on opposing sides of the same conflict.

This has every chance of going horribly wrong. The US-backed side cannot win without defeating the Russian-backed side, and vice versa. I very much hope there is an end game planned for at least one of these two because if they just make it up as they go, this will not end well.

Once again, this happened in the Korean War.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: HVC on October 05, 2016, 05:28:23 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 05, 2016, 04:32:58 AM
I repeat: the world should be much more freaked out on this. The first time American and Russian armed forces are officially involved on opposing sides of the same conflict.

This has every chance of going horribly wrong. The US-backed side cannot win without defeating the Russian-backed side, and vice versa. I very much hope there is an end game planned for at least one of these two because if they just make it up as they go, this will not end well.

The west will roll over. After Afghanistan and Iraq it doesn't have the will for a new protracted middle eastern war. Blow some stuff up, sure. Stay in there and beat of the Russians ( heh) not so much.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: HVC on October 05, 2016, 05:33:29 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on October 05, 2016, 05:24:47 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 05, 2016, 04:32:58 AM
I repeat: the world should be much more freaked out on this. The first time American and Russian armed forces are officially involved on opposing sides of the same conflict.

This has every chance of going horribly wrong. The US-backed side cannot win without defeating the Russian-backed side, and vice versa. I very much hope there is an end game planned for at least one of these two because if they just make it up as they go, this will not end well.

Once again, this happened in the Korean War.

And they had to fire a popular general and ruin a president (who wasn't doing that great anyway) to keep from starting ww3
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 05, 2016, 05:53:48 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on October 05, 2016, 05:24:47 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 05, 2016, 04:32:58 AM
I repeat: the world should be much more freaked out on this. The first time American and Russian armed forces are officially involved on opposing sides of the same conflict.

This has every chance of going horribly wrong. The US-backed side cannot win without defeating the Russian-backed side, and vice versa. I very much hope there is an end game planned for at least one of these two because if they just make it up as they go, this will not end well.

Once again, this happened in the Korean War.

AFAIK there were no Russian planes and troops, officially and openly flying/fighting on the North Korean side.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on October 06, 2016, 09:46:39 AM
Austrian paper Die Presse says Assad's Aleppo strategy seems to be taken out of Russia's playbook for the Chechen war and taking Grozny: surround, siege, starve, bombard, and eventually just roll in as victors.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 06, 2016, 10:09:24 AM
at which point will this thread be renamed to "syria reintegrating" ?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on October 06, 2016, 10:47:37 AM
Quote from: Syt on October 06, 2016, 09:46:39 AM
Austrian paper Die Presse says Assad's Aleppo strategy seems to be taken out of Russia's playbook for the Chechen war and taking Grozny: surround, siege, starve, bombard, and eventually just roll in as victors.

Well that's really just Siege 101 isn't it? Done since antiquity
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on October 06, 2016, 10:57:08 AM
How soon does Austria forget the strategy Kara Mustafa attempted to use in 1683 :(
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 06, 2016, 12:47:54 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 06, 2016, 10:47:37 AM
Well that's really just Siege 101 isn't it? Done since antiquity

He'd at least hit the wells with carcasses.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: PJL on October 06, 2016, 12:57:09 PM
Well I'm sure all the protests outside the Russian & Syrian embassies around the world will force them to stop the campaign, like it did with the 2003 Iraq war.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on October 07, 2016, 04:06:22 PM
Quote from: PJL on October 06, 2016, 12:57:09 PM
Well I'm sure all the protests outside the Russian & Syrian embassies around the world will force them to stop the campaign, like it did with the 2003 Iraq war.

Your cynicism is really refreshing. It's like...well like something we've never had on offer before.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 07, 2016, 04:29:06 PM
Quote from: garbon on October 07, 2016, 04:06:22 PM
on offer

Yeah...you need to come home now.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on October 07, 2016, 04:58:05 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 07, 2016, 04:29:06 PM
Quote from: garbon on October 07, 2016, 04:06:22 PM
on offer

Yeah...you need to come home now.

Pfft, with the pound being so worthless how smooth do you think that transition would be? I didn't move here to lose money, boo.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 07, 2016, 06:38:35 PM
It did take a wetter shit than usual today, didn't it  :lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on October 12, 2016, 02:04:32 AM
https://www.rt.com/news/356161-china-syria-military-training/

QuoteChina 'to provide aid, enhance military training' in Syria – top army official

Beijing and Damascus have agreed that the Chinese military will provide humanitarian aid to Syria, a high-ranking People's Liberation Army officer said, adding that the training of Syrian personnel by Chinese instructors has also been discussed.

Director of the Office for International Military Cooperation of China's Central Military Commission, Guan Youfei, arrived in Damascus on Tuesday for talks with Syrian Defense Minister Fahad Jassim al-Freij, Chinese Xinhua news agency reported.

During the negotiation, Guan noted China's consistent diplomatic efforts to find a political solution to the Syrian crisis, adding that Beijing is now seeking closer military ties with Damascus.

"The Chinese and Syrian militaries traditionally have a friendly relationship, and the Chinese military is willing to keep strengthening exchanges and cooperation with the Syrian military," he said.

Guan and al-Freij discussed the enhancement of training and "reached a consensus" on the Chinese military providing humanitarian aid to Syria, Xinhua reported, without providing further details.

According to the agency, Guam also met with a Russian general during his visit to the Syrian capital.

China has been operating in Syria alongside Russia and Iran in a "discreet manner" but now the time has come to "openly" step up anti-terrorist efforts, believes political analyst Roula Talj.

"We will see more involvement of China, of Iran and Russia. They will go [in] stronger after ISIS, especially after Russia-US talks. I do not think the US will have any chance to oppose the interference of these allies. The US president or any candidate will have to answer their own public['s] opinion, so it is good for them that someone else is doing the dirty job," Roula Talj told RT. "In the face of their own public['s] opinion they have to be grateful that somebody else is cleaning the mess they had created, especially as ISIS is getting stronger every day inside of Europe. Of course, they are not extremely happy to see the BRICS countries taking over."

Meanwhile political expert Qin Duo Xu does not foresee any "deep involvement" of the Chinese military in Syria, but says it could be a "significant" first step for China to "get involved in the Syrian situation."

"There are chances that this cooperation will increase a lot," he told RT. "At least China can provide more support or diplomatic cover in terms of cracking down [on] terrorists or some rebel groups that are really extremist in nature."

"If you look at the Chinese media, Chinese public opinion, [you will see] that [the] absolute majority is siding with the Syrian government and support Russian military involvement. China has its own problems with terrorists: At least 100 Chinese citizens are fighting alongside with rebels and Islamic State against the Syrian government," he added. "That is why China does support Russian involvement, does support Syrian government's efforts in [the] fight against terrorists."

It is in China's strategic interests to get involved in the Syrian crisis and "play a larger role" in resolving it, independent China strategist, Andrew Leung said.

"This is really a breakthrough in China's strategies in the Middle East. There appears to be more coordination with countries, like Russia," Leung told RT. “China sees itself as one of the great powers and as befitting a state of great power there is the responsibility to maintain peace and stability in a very important region in the world...as far as the Middle East is concerned it means even more to China because it is a matter of energy security."

Despite being a permanent UN Security Council member and relying on the Middle East for oil, China was previously reluctant to become involved in the Syrian conflict.

Beijing preferred to concentrate on domestic affairs and the territorial dispute with its neighbors in the South China Sea.

It praised Moscow's anti-terrorism efforts in Syria as Russia staged a bombing campaign there in September 2015 to March 2016. Russia still has some of its forces in the country to provide humanitarian and military assistance to Syrian President Bashar Assad's government.

Last year, there were reports that China was sending dozens of military advisers to Syria to help the country fight terrorists.

READ MORE: China's military advisers 'heading to Syria to help fight ISIS' – report

Syria has been engulfed in civil war since 2011, with the government fighting a number of rebel groups, in addition to terrorist groups such as Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) and Al-Nusra Front.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 12, 2016, 02:33:10 AM
Eh, maybe meant bold?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on October 12, 2016, 02:41:25 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 12, 2016, 02:33:10 AM
Eh, maybe meant bold?

No, apparently they had a "[s]" in the text :D
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 12, 2016, 03:25:45 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 07, 2016, 04:29:06 PM
Quote from: garbon on October 07, 2016, 04:06:22 PM
on offer

Yeah...you need to come home now.

Never associated that one with Britain.  :hmm:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on November 13, 2016, 03:43:24 PM
Russians and Syrians building up to something, they've already recovered the Western suburbs of Aleppo that were recently captured in the rebel offensive.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on November 24, 2016, 03:47:08 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/23/donald-trump-jr-syria-russia-meeting-randa-kassis

QuoteUS Syria policy: signs of shift as Trump son meets pro-Russia Damascus figure

The president-elect's son reportedly met with Randa Kassis, a Syrian politician who strongly supports Russian intervention, in Paris last month

A meeting in Paris between Donald Trump's son and a Syrian politician with strong ties to Russia has strengthened expectations that the new US administration will side with Moscow in the conflict.

The meeting Donald Trump Jr attended at the Paris Ritz on 11 October, reported in the Wall Street Journal, was co-hosted by Randa Kassis, who runs a Syrian group portrayed as the "patriotic opposition" by Moscow. Kassis is widely viewed as pro-regime by many dissidents, because she advocates political transition in cooperation with the Syrian leader, Bashar al-Assad, and because of her strong support of Russian intervention.

"Russia intervened to save the country, for the sake of Syria," Kassis said on al-Jazeera programme Opposite Direction on Tuesday. "The problem is that you don't know the Russians, you don't understand the Russians ... you just accuse the Russians of being against the opposition but you need to understand them."

Bassam Barabandi, a former Syrian diplomat who defected and is now a Washington-based dissident said that Kassis's organisation does not have widespread support. "It is really her and a group of her friends," he said. "No one else in Syria recognises her as an opposition except the regime."

Her husband, Fabien Baussart, is a French businessman who runs a small thinktank in Paris called the Centre for Political and Foreign Affairs, and has strong commercial ties to Kazakhstan and Russia. Baussart introduced Kassis, a former Damascus socialite, to Sergey Lavrov, according to Joseph Bahout, a Syrian expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"She is a good friend of Lavrov, and he invited her and several others to Moscow and they created what is known – with a certain irony – as the 'Moscow opposition',"Bahout said. "The Russians in their cynicism tried to impose these people as an opposition delegation to the peace talks in Geneva. But of course the rest of the opposition all objected."

Kassis recently posted comments on her Facebook page about the meeting, saying: "Syria's opposition got hope that political process will move forward and Russia and the United States will reach accord on the issue of the Syrian crisis, because of Trump's victory. Such hope and belief is the result of my personal meeting with Donald Trump Junior in Paris in October."

"I succeeded to pass [to] Trump, through the talks with his son, the idea of how we can cooperate together to reach the agreement between Russia and the United States on Syria," Kassis said in her Facebook posting.

Throughout his campaign, Trump praised Russia and the Syrian regime for "fighting Isis", although very little of the war effort of either government is focused on the Islamic State movement. It is mostly aimed at areas held by other opposition groups, and their bombing of those areas have been responsible for the great majority of the civilian casualties, according to human rights groups.

Earlier this month, Assad appeared to give the president-elect a cautious endorsement, saying Trump would be a "natural ally" if he fulfills his pledge to fight "terrorists".

In an interview with the New York Times on Wednesday, Trump said: "I have a different view on Syria than everybody else."

He gave no specifics other than to say his view was opposed to Republican senator, Lindsey Graham, who has proposed tougher action to back some opposition groups, defend civilians and confront Russia and the Syrian regime. He said he had very strong ideas on Syria, but would only discuss them off the record.

In the same New York Times interview, Trump also suggested that his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, might serve as an envoy on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. That suggestion and his son's attendance at the Paris meeting have reinforced earlier impressions that he would rely heavily on personal and business connections in foreign policy, using family members as go-betweens despite their lack of experience.

Members of Trump's entourage also came under fire from a former counter-terrorist official on Wednesday for their lobbying on behalf of an Iranian rebel group, the Mujahidin e-Khalq (MeK), that was on the state department foreign terrorist organisation list from 1997 until 2012.

Daniel Benjamin, the coordinator for counter-terrorism in the state department from 2009 to 2012, accused former New York mayor, Rudy Giuliani and former ambassador to the UN, John Bolton, both candidates for high office in the new administration, of accepting lavish fees from an organisation that had in the past been responsible for the deaths of American citizens and other civilians.

"You can tell a lot about potential Cabinet nominees by the terrorist group they shill for," Benjamin wrote in Politico on Wednesday. "The MeK has plenty of American blood on its hands, as well as that of thousands of Iranians killed while the group was a strike force serving Saddam Hussein in the 1980s and '90s."
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Jacob on November 24, 2016, 01:32:41 PM
Friend of a friend is a photo journalist - he's spent a fair bit of time in Syria (and Libya, Ukraine, Gaza and other conflict zones) - you can check out his photos here if you're interested: http://alessioromenzi.photoshelter.com/index
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on December 04, 2016, 09:57:44 PM
http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-gave-up-airstrikes-kuznetsov-aircraft-carrier-2016-12

LOLZ
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 04, 2016, 10:07:09 PM
Fuck, that's funny.  Antisemite cossack sluts still can't figure out what to do with water.  The Brits did it better when it was called the Atlantic Conveyor.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on December 04, 2016, 10:10:47 PM
QuoteThe Kuznetsov, never an entirely reliable system, had one of its MiG-29KRs crash in November, and another pilot had to eject after the Kuznetsov's landing gear failed and couldn't receive the aircraft, Jane's reports.

Well, I can see one issue right away...
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on December 04, 2016, 10:20:27 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 04, 2016, 10:07:09 PM
Fuck, that's funny.  Antisemite cossack sluts still can't figure out what to do with water.  The Brits did it better when it was called the Atlantic Conveyor.

Them yellows are gonna have the same problems. WE NOW HAVE AIRCRAFT CARRIER
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 04, 2016, 10:24:40 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on December 04, 2016, 10:20:27 PM
Them yellows are gonna have the same problems. WE NOW HAVE AIRCRAFT CARRIER

Yeah.  And maybe I'm a Chinese jet pilot.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: 11B4V on December 04, 2016, 11:05:17 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on December 04, 2016, 09:57:44 PM
http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-gave-up-airstrikes-kuznetsov-aircraft-carrier-2016-12

LOLZ

Minor leaguers.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on December 11, 2016, 10:35:05 PM
I'd like to congratulate Syria and their Russian allies for losing Palmyra to ISIS. Again.

Good job!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Phillip V on December 11, 2016, 10:37:44 PM
How many US troops we have in Syria now with the latest increase:  500?  What will Trump do.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 11, 2016, 11:34:33 PM
Apparently ISIS/IL took Palmyra back from Syrian forces in the last 24 hours.  Obviously the Russians were too busy on hold with AAA to their aircraft carrier towed.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: 11B4V on December 11, 2016, 11:43:54 PM
And folks are worried about Russian military might.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/Ic97mPViHEG5O/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 11, 2016, 11:48:12 PM
 :lol: 

I'm sure they'll get right on carpet-bombing some hospitals in Nowhere-Near-Palmyra from 10,000 feet in response.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on December 12, 2016, 02:49:04 AM
Quote from: 11B4V on December 04, 2016, 11:05:17 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on December 04, 2016, 09:57:44 PM
http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-gave-up-airstrikes-kuznetsov-aircraft-carrier-2016-12 (http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-gave-up-airstrikes-kuznetsov-aircraft-carrier-2016-12)

LOLZ

Minor leaguers.

And they get mad if you call them a regional power.  :D

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on December 12, 2016, 09:20:54 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 11, 2016, 11:34:33 PM
Apparently ISIS/IL took Palmyra back from Syrian forces in the last 24 hours.

I just do not get how all these equipt modern armies keep getting owned by a few punks with AK-47s. I know their training sucks but come on.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on December 12, 2016, 10:32:10 AM
Quote from: Valmy on December 12, 2016, 09:20:54 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 11, 2016, 11:34:33 PM
Apparently ISIS/IL took Palmyra back from Syrian forces in the last 24 hours.

I just do not get how all these equipt modern armies keep getting owned by a few punks with AK-47s. I know their training sucks but come on.

I suspect it is the same reason insurgents "take back" secured areas in every war like this.

Because the army has to leave at some point to go fight somewhere else.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on December 12, 2016, 03:59:20 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on December 11, 2016, 10:35:05 PM
I'd like to congratulate Syria and their Russian allies for losing Palmyra to ISIS. Again.

Good job!

Wow, that's a surprise. I figured ISIS in Syria/Iraq was weakening, but they had the strength to retake this city against Russian and Syrian forces.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Zanza on December 12, 2016, 04:24:20 PM
From what I read, the Syrians and Russians are mostly concentrating on fighting the various rebels in the North-West of Syria, not the Islamic State. Perhaps they just don't care too much about Palmyra at the moment and withdrew to fight the rebels elsewhere.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: 11B4V on December 12, 2016, 08:53:30 PM
Quote from: Zanza on December 12, 2016, 04:24:20 PM
From what I read, the Syrians and Russians are mostly concentrating on fighting the various rebels in the North-West of Syria, not the Islamic State. Perhaps they just don't care too much about Palmyra at the moment and withdrew to fight the rebels elsewhere.

Didn't France do that in europe to fight the Germans in Africa?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 12, 2016, 11:49:36 PM
QuotePalmyra: 'Chemical gas attack' hits IS-held Syrian area (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-38295309)

Dozens of people have been killed in air strikes and a suspected gas attack near the Syrian city of Palmyra, monitoring groups say.

The targeted area is controlled by the so-called Islamic State group and has been under heavy bombardment from government-aligned forces.

Dozens of people are said to have been killed during the combined assaults.

IS members recaptured the city on Sunday, hours after Russian air strikes appeared to have driven them back.

Sources in Hama province reported seeing dead bodies with no visible injuries, according to the UK-based group Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The death toll was put at at least 40 by one citizens' group in Hama province.

The Syrian government and its Russian backers have previously denied using chemical weapons.

IS was previously driven out of the ancient desert city of Palmyra in March with the support of Russian air strikes, but the jihadist group seized it again in a sudden assault that started last week.

The surprise setback for Syrian government forces came as they and their allies turned their attention to fighting local opposition forces in Aleppo and Damascus.


IS destroyed a number of monuments and beheaded the archaeological director during its 10-month occupation of the Unesco World Heritage site and the adjacent city of Tadmur.

Two 2,000-year-old temples, an arch and funerary towers were left in ruins.

The jihadist group, which has also demolished several pre-Islamic sites in neighbouring Iraq, believes that such structures are idolatrous.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on December 15, 2016, 10:41:54 AM
I don't get the hand wringing over Aleppo. This war has lasted over five years and something like a half million people have been killed. The only way to stop the killing is to engage in it ourselves in a big way and take responsibility for the outcome, something none of us have the will or desire to do.

'If we had just sent in our militaries and bombed the shit out of Syria and killed thousands of people we could have STOPPED THIS TRAGEDY'

Um yeah.

I get the angst over Aleppo. I get the horror over Aleppo. I just don't get acting like somehow we failed to take compassionate action, that we just stood by and let it happen. Things are not quite so simple.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on December 15, 2016, 10:58:57 AM
Agree.  I've kind of become numb to it.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 15, 2016, 11:01:53 AM
I'm curious how a they manage to keep feeding themselves.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on December 15, 2016, 12:40:42 PM
Quote from: derspiess on December 15, 2016, 10:58:57 AM
Agree.  I've kind of become numb to it.

Yeah. I think the whole Aleppo shrill-fest is a propaganda tool to remind the world that when peace finally happens thanks to the Russians, it was because of all the suffering and killing they enacted, not because they are more competent than the US.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: FunkMonk on December 15, 2016, 02:17:46 PM
Watching a major power fail in the middle east is kinda entertaining. Now I sort of know how the eurosnobs felt like years ago.

LOL IRAQI FREEDOM LMAOOO
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Barrister on December 15, 2016, 02:20:29 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on December 15, 2016, 02:17:46 PM
Watching a major power fail in the middle east is kinda entertaining. Now I sort of know how the eurosnobs felt like years ago.

LOL IRAQI FREEDOM LMAOOO

I don't much care for the suffering of the citizens of Aleppo, but the ongoing struggles of the Admiral Kuznetsov brought a smile to me face. :)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Oexmelin on December 15, 2016, 02:24:28 PM
Really?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Barrister on December 15, 2016, 02:27:10 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on December 15, 2016, 02:24:28 PM
Really?

Perhaps I misphrased myself.  I don't enjoy in the least the tragedy of Aleppo.  But seeing the sole Russian aircraft carrier belching smoke, having to be towed into harbour, and ultimately having to station all of it's planes on-shore amused me greatly. :)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Oexmelin on December 15, 2016, 02:31:17 PM
Ok. :mellow:

Really, some days, this forum's morbid fascination with military hardware is fucking disturbing.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on December 15, 2016, 02:34:45 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on December 15, 2016, 02:31:17 PM
Ok. :mellow:

Really, some days, this forum's morbid fascination with military hardware is fucking disturbing.

I thought he was enjoying Russian failure and incompetence rather than being fascinated with military hardware.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Barrister on December 15, 2016, 02:51:00 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 15, 2016, 02:34:45 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on December 15, 2016, 02:31:17 PM
Ok. :mellow:

Really, some days, this forum's morbid fascination with military hardware is fucking disturbing.

I thought he was enjoying Russian failure and incompetence rather than being fascinated with military hardware.

Well I do get fascinated by military hardware too.   :blush:  But I don't think anyone, anywhere, is fascinated with the Admiral Kuznetsov.

So yeah - that was more a celebration of Russian incompetence. :punk:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 15, 2016, 02:53:30 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 15, 2016, 10:41:54 AM
I don't get the hand wringing over Aleppo.

Because we all know what happens when Middle Eastern states collapse.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on December 15, 2016, 03:28:32 PM
It's really becoming clear the big involvement Russian special forces have had in this fight for Aleppo, Russian TV is apparently full of reports glorifying their efforts.

I've previously heard some reporters say they've seen Russian troops close to the front-lines, but couldn't film them, now it seems they've been fighting alongside militias and Syrian units, not just doing FAC or the sort of advisory work the Americans* are said to be doing in Iraq.


* I suspect the Americans around Mosul are more heavily involved that the administration would like to admit publicly, but being more casualty adverse maybe they're not allowed to lead operations from front? 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 15, 2016, 03:30:11 PM
They need the trigger time for when they're deployed on the Rio Grande.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on December 15, 2016, 03:44:11 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 15, 2016, 02:53:30 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 15, 2016, 10:41:54 AM
I don't get the hand wringing over Aleppo.

Because we all know what happens when Middle Eastern states collapse.

I meant the deep sense of guilt for not saving the day. I mean yeah there is plenty of reason to be concerned with the disaster in Syria.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on December 15, 2016, 03:46:32 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 15, 2016, 03:30:11 PM
They need the trigger time for when they're deployed on the Rio Grande.

What as Trumps new contract border guards?  :P
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 15, 2016, 04:02:26 PM
Quote from: mongers on December 15, 2016, 03:46:32 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 15, 2016, 03:30:11 PM
They need the trigger time for when they're deployed on the Rio Grande.

What as Trumps new contract border guards?  :P

You know it #GrabThatPosseComitatus
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on December 15, 2016, 04:50:37 PM
Where in the fuck has these rebels been charging their phones to make those sob story videos CNN has been trying to jam down our throats?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Minsky Moment on December 15, 2016, 05:19:18 PM
Quote from: Zanza on December 12, 2016, 04:24:20 PM
From what I read, the Syrians and Russians are mostly concentrating on fighting the various rebels in the North-West of Syria, not the Islamic State. Perhaps they just don't care too much about Palmyra at the moment and withdrew to fight the rebels elsewhere.

They don't care about Palmyra.
The focus is on controlling the big cities in the west, the lines of communication to Latakia, and the road from Damascus to Aleppo.
Holding Palmyra is a strategic distraction.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on December 15, 2016, 05:53:56 PM
The road from Damascus is nothing special.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: dps on December 15, 2016, 10:11:36 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 15, 2016, 02:27:10 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on December 15, 2016, 02:24:28 PM
Really?

Perhaps I misphrased myself.  I don't enjoy in the least the tragedy of Aleppo.  But seeing the sole Russian aircraft carrier belching smoke, having to be towed into harbour, and ultimately having to station all of it's planes on-shore amused me greatly. :)

The thing is, there are 20-some countries now that have aircraft carriers of some sort, but most of them just have what are glorified escort carriers.  There are only 3 countries that have anything that could be considered a proper fleet carrier--us, the French, and the Brazilians.  Though the Indian and British navies will be back in the game when/if their new carriers ate finished.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: alfred russel on December 15, 2016, 11:37:42 PM
Quote from: The Brain on December 15, 2016, 05:53:56 PM
The road from Damascus is nothing special.

Just like in the bible, modern travelers on the road are being struck down with a blinding light from the sky and booming sounds from the clouds. It really begs the question, did Saul really encounter Jesus on the road to damascus, or a US military drone caught in a time warp piloted by a pro christian drone operator in Kansas?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on December 16, 2016, 04:54:11 AM
Quote from: The Brain on December 15, 2016, 05:53:56 PM
The road from Damascus is nothing special.

Some disagree

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.eutopiainstitute.org%2Fsite%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2012%2F01%2F2012-Lawrence-of-Arabia-in-the-way-to-Damascus.jpg&hash=3317969460564a14c154abe4664c3aec0bc4e438)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 16, 2016, 06:29:10 AM
That's just a pic of a homegrown radical Islamic terrorist.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on December 16, 2016, 07:06:07 AM
I hate playing on Ottoman side in BF1. I will understand the in game shoutes/emotes from German, Austrian, English, and American soldiers, and with Italians I can usually guesstimate what they're saying.

But with the Turks? "Is he throwing a band aid, asking for ammo, or telling us the position of a sniper?"  :huh:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on December 16, 2016, 07:08:22 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 16, 2016, 06:29:10 AM
That's just a pic of a homegrown radical Islamic terrorist.

Well, it is getting increasingly hard to argue that the Entente victory in WW1, the way they handled the Middle East in particular, was a disaster, and should have never happened.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 16, 2016, 07:17:04 AM
Quote from: Syt on December 16, 2016, 07:06:07 AM
I hate playing on Ottoman side in BF1. I will understand the in game shoutes/emotes from German, Austrian, English, and American soldiers, and with Italians I can usually guesstimate what they're saying.

But with the Turks? "Is he throwing a band aid, asking for ammo, or telling us the position of a sniper?"  :huh:

I can't kill anybody on horseback with my sword.  I just score roadkills with the horse.  :lol: :(
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on December 16, 2016, 07:24:58 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 16, 2016, 07:17:04 AM
I can't kill anybody on horseback with my sword.  I just score roadkills with the horse.  :lol: :(

I kill horses with motorcycles. :D
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 16, 2016, 07:32:31 AM
Going to have to try that.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on December 16, 2016, 09:33:20 AM
Quote from: Tamas on December 16, 2016, 07:08:22 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 16, 2016, 06:29:10 AM
That's just a pic of a homegrown radical Islamic terrorist.

Well, it is getting increasingly hard to argue that the Entente victory in WW1, the way they handled the Middle East in particular, was a disaster, and should have never happened.
I have a feeling that this is about to come up for a renegotiation, the whole thing.  Too many pent up tensions everywhere.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on December 16, 2016, 09:53:05 AM
Quote from: Tamas on December 16, 2016, 07:08:22 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 16, 2016, 06:29:10 AM
That's just a pic of a homegrown radical Islamic terrorist.

Well, it is getting increasingly hard to argue that the Entente victory in WW1, the way they handled the Middle East in particular, was a disaster, and should have never happened.

Oh was it the Entente who brought the Ottoman Empire into the war and encouraged them to declare world wide jihad?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on December 16, 2016, 10:06:35 AM
Quote from: Valmy on December 16, 2016, 09:53:05 AM
Quote from: Tamas on December 16, 2016, 07:08:22 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 16, 2016, 06:29:10 AM
That's just a pic of a homegrown radical Islamic terrorist.

Well, it is getting increasingly hard to argue that the Entente victory in WW1, the way they handled the Middle East in particular, was a disaster, and should have never happened.

Oh was it the Entente who brought the Ottoman Empire into the war and encouraged them to declare world wide jihad?

:rolleyes:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on December 16, 2016, 10:26:25 AM
Quote from: Tamas on December 16, 2016, 10:06:35 AM
Quote from: Valmy on December 16, 2016, 09:53:05 AM
Quote from: Tamas on December 16, 2016, 07:08:22 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 16, 2016, 06:29:10 AM
That's just a pic of a homegrown radical Islamic terrorist.

Well, it is getting increasingly hard to argue that the Entente victory in WW1, the way they handled the Middle East in particular, was a disaster, and should have never happened.

Oh was it the Entente who brought the Ottoman Empire into the war and encouraged them to declare world wide jihad?

:rolleyes:

All I am saying is it was not like the Central Powers showed themselves to be wiser or more farseeing. The Western Powers were doomed to fuck up the Middle East as soon as we got our mitts on it.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on December 30, 2016, 10:59:58 PM

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fichef-1.bbci.co.uk%2Fnews%2F624%2Fcpsprodpb%2F4D6A%2Fproduction%2F_93181891_iraq_syria_control_28_12_2016_624map.png&hash=56fe07b6c1b6e0eb580c75f35c25ac7a74e683e2)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on December 31, 2016, 04:32:52 AM
Quote from: mongers on December 30, 2016, 10:59:58 PM

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fichef-1.bbci.co.uk%2Fnews%2F624%2Fcpsprodpb%2F4D6A%2Fproduction%2F_93181891_iraq_syria_control_28_12_2016_624map.png&hash=56fe07b6c1b6e0eb580c75f35c25ac7a74e683e2)

Thanks Obama.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on December 31, 2016, 04:39:16 AM
 :secret: mongers posted the map, not Obama  :secret:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on December 31, 2016, 04:54:26 AM
Quote from: Syt on December 31, 2016, 04:39:16 AM
:secret: mongers posted the map, not Obama  :secret:

Just who or what is 'mongers'?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on December 31, 2016, 04:56:59 AM
Quote from: Syt on December 31, 2016, 04:39:16 AM
:secret: mongers posted the map, not Obama  :secret:

That's my Yi-esque nickname for mongers.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on January 28, 2017, 05:23:37 PM
So, Lindsay Lohan met with Erdogan to discuss Syrian refugees. :mellow:

http://www.vulture.com/2017/01/lindsay-lohan-meets-with-the-president-of-turkey.html?mid=facebook_nymag

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpixel.nymag.com%2Fimgs%2Fdaily%2Fvulture%2F2017%2F01%2F28%2F28-lohan-turkey.w529.h529.jpg&hash=5321b257ae14e05f9b051ea5f0a509aabe01f3d5)

QuoteWe're pleased to inform you that Lindsay Lohan — of Mean Girls and Get a Clue fame — met with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan yesterday in Istanbul to reportedly have a wide-ranging discussion about the current plight of Syrian refugees. Also accompanying them was the Turkish First Lady Emine Erdoğan and Syrian refugee Bana Alabed, who shot to fame by tweeting the difficulties her and her mother faced during the siege of Aleppo. "What a dream it is for Mr. President Erdogan and The First Lady to invite me to their home," Lohan wrote on her Instagram page. "Their efforts in helping Syrian Refugees is truly inspiring, #peace starts now." In an additional statement to Turkey's Andalou Agency, she elaborated a bit further on the reasons behind the meeting: "This is why I underlined the statement 'the world is bigger than five.' Five big nations made promises but they did not keep them. There are some who are afraid to come Turkey due to the disinformation about it but I feel very much at ease." Lohan has taken a keen interest in Islam in recent years, and has volunteered in Turkey numerous times to help the country's refugee children. Expect to find out more about it in her upcoming book, probably.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on January 28, 2017, 05:24:48 PM
They can keep her. A gift for the Sultan's harem.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on January 28, 2017, 05:46:49 PM
Quote from: Syt on January 28, 2017, 05:23:37 PM
So, Lindsay Lohan met with Erdogan to discuss Syrian refugees. :mellow:

State Department is a bit short-handed this week.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: 11B4V on January 28, 2017, 06:12:54 PM
Quote from: Syt on January 28, 2017, 05:23:37 PM
So, Lindsay Lohan met with Erdogan to discuss Syrian refugees. :mellow:

http://www.vulture.com/2017/01/lindsay-lohan-meets-with-the-president-of-turkey.html?mid=facebook_nymag

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpixel.nymag.com%2Fimgs%2Fdaily%2Fvulture%2F2017%2F01%2F28%2F28-lohan-turkey.w529.h529.jpg&hash=5321b257ae14e05f9b051ea5f0a509aabe01f3d5)

QuoteWe're pleased to inform you that Lindsay Lohan — of Mean Girls and Get a Clue fame — met with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan yesterday in Istanbul to reportedly have a wide-ranging discussion about the current plight of Syrian refugees. Also accompanying them was the Turkish First Lady Emine Erdoğan and Syrian refugee Bana Alabed, who shot to fame by tweeting the difficulties her and her mother faced during the siege of Aleppo. "What a dream it is for Mr. President Erdogan and The First Lady to invite me to their home," Lohan wrote on her Instagram page. "Their efforts in helping Syrian Refugees is truly inspiring, #peace starts now." In an additional statement to Turkey's Andalou Agency, she elaborated a bit further on the reasons behind the meeting: "This is why I underlined the statement 'the world is bigger than five.' Five big nations made promises but they did not keep them. There are some who are afraid to come Turkey due to the disinformation about it but I feel very much at ease." Lohan has taken a keen interest in Islam in recent years, and has volunteered in Turkey numerous times to help the country's refugee children. Expect to find out more about it in her upcoming book, probably.

That fits well into the theme since 20 January.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on January 29, 2017, 01:43:22 AM
Quote from: garbon on December 31, 2016, 04:54:26 AM
Quote from: Syt on December 31, 2016, 04:39:16 AM
:secret: mongers posted the map, not Obama  :secret:

Just who or what is 'mongers'?

DWM
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on January 30, 2017, 05:00:36 AM
Quote from: 11B4V on January 28, 2017, 06:12:54 PM
Quote from: Syt on January 28, 2017, 05:23:37 PM
So, Lindsay Lohan met with Erdogan to discuss Syrian refugees. :mellow:

http://www.vulture.com/2017/01/lindsay-lohan-meets-with-the-president-of-turkey.html?mid=facebook_nymag

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpixel.nymag.com%2Fimgs%2Fdaily%2Fvulture%2F2017%2F01%2F28%2F28-lohan-turkey.w529.h529.jpg&hash=5321b257ae14e05f9b051ea5f0a509aabe01f3d5)

QuoteWe're pleased to inform you that Lindsay Lohan — of Mean Girls and Get a Clue fame — met with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan yesterday in Istanbul to reportedly have a wide-ranging discussion about the current plight of Syrian refugees. Also accompanying them was the Turkish First Lady Emine Erdoğan and Syrian refugee Bana Alabed, who shot to fame by tweeting the difficulties her and her mother faced during the siege of Aleppo. "What a dream it is for Mr. President Erdogan and The First Lady to invite me to their home," Lohan wrote on her Instagram page. "Their efforts in helping Syrian Refugees is truly inspiring, #peace starts now." In an additional statement to Turkey's Andalou Agency, she elaborated a bit further on the reasons behind the meeting: "This is why I underlined the statement 'the world is bigger than five.' Five big nations made promises but they did not keep them. There are some who are afraid to come Turkey due to the disinformation about it but I feel very much at ease." Lohan has taken a keen interest in Islam in recent years, and has volunteered in Turkey numerous times to help the country's refugee children. Expect to find out more about it in her upcoming book, probably.

That fits well into the theme since 20 January.

I am starting to think the jokes blaming the Great Hadron Collider for all this are on to something :P
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on February 15, 2017, 07:01:28 PM
This would break ISIS pretty conventional hold of territory quickly, but it's not going to leave things stable. The remnants will just go back under ground and go guerrilla.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/02/15/politics/pentagon-considering-recommending-combat-troops-in-syria/index.html?adkey=bn

Quote

Washington (CNN) — The Defense Department might propose that the US send conventional ground combat forces into northern Syria for the first time to speed up the fight against ISIS, CNN has learned.

"It's possible that you may see conventional forces hit the ground in Syria for some period of time," one defense official told CNN.

But the official emphasized that any decision is ultimately up to President Donald Trump, who has ordered his defense secretary to come up with a proposal to combat ISIS before the end of the month.

The move would significantly alter US military operations in Syria if approved and could put troops on the ground within weeks.

Until now, only small teams made up largely of Special Operations forces have operated in Syria, providing training and assistance to anti-ISIS opposition groups on the ground.

Conventional units operate in larger numbers and would require a more significant footprint of security protection both on the ground and in the air.

US officials are characterizing the concept of deploying ground troops as a point of discussion, stopping short of saying it's a formal proposal.

What their exact mission would be is not yet clear, but one goal of their their presence would be to help reassure Turkey that Kurdish forces are not posing a threat to Ankara's interests. It's possible some troops would deploy first to Kuwait and then move into Syria.

The Obama administration never embraced the idea of ground combat troops because of the inherent risks involved. If the idea is approved, it would signal a fundamental change in the Trump administration's willingness to accept such risk.

For one thing, it would be a sign of an increased willingness by Defense Secretary James Mattis and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Joseph Dunford to accept more risk for US troops in hope of gaining ground on ISIS.

At his confirmation hearing, Mattis was not asked about putting more troops into Syria, but he did explain how he would seek to change US military efforts in Iraq and Syria from Obama administration.

"I think it's getting there as rapidly as possible, where it would be a more accelerated campaign," Mattis said.

Sending troops to Syria is just one of several ideas that may be presented to the President, the official said.

Discussions are also underway on fundamentally changing how troops are deployed to Iraq.

The Obama administration established limits on how many troops could be in Iraq at any one time. As a result, troops have largely been deployed on an individual basis depending on how many trainers and advisers are needed.

Right now, no more than 5,262 troops are allowed in Iraq, with 5,155 there currently. There are hundreds more temporarily assigned that are not counted under the ceiling.

Trump may be asked to do away with all the limits so complete units can be sent and temporary deployments will also be counted. Commanders say this will give them more flexibility in operations, but it also will increase the number of troops there, something the Iraqi government would have to agree to.

Also under discussion is increased cooperation with the Russians and the arming of Kurdish groups in northern Syria supported by the US -- at the risk of angering Turkey.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on February 15, 2017, 07:44:13 PM
This seems like a really bad plan.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Jacob on February 15, 2017, 07:48:43 PM
What do you mean? American ground forces in an ongoing multi-party war/ civil insurgency in the Middle East usually turns out pretty well, doesn't it?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: 11B4V on February 15, 2017, 08:26:06 PM
Quote from: Valmy on February 15, 2017, 07:44:13 PM
This seems like a really bad plan.

Never stopped us before. We're the good guys, remember.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on February 15, 2017, 08:27:12 PM
War boner activated.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Archy on February 16, 2017, 02:51:26 AM
Defcock 3 :ph34r:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on February 16, 2017, 03:28:39 AM
Quote from: Jacob on February 15, 2017, 07:48:43 PM
What do you mean? American ground forces in an ongoing multi-party war/ civil insurgency in the Middle East usually turns out pretty well, doesn't it?

Plus, now there are Russian, Turkish, Iranian, and Saud Arabian forces on the ground as well, for added spice!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Grey Fox on February 16, 2017, 11:15:58 AM
No Blood for Assad!

?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on February 28, 2017, 09:11:28 PM
Syria war: Russia and China veto sanctions

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39116854

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: HVC on February 28, 2017, 10:00:17 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on February 28, 2017, 09:11:28 PM
Syria war: Russia and China veto sanctions

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39116854



Vetoing stuff for your preferred middle eastern hellhole is a proud western tradition.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on March 04, 2017, 11:46:12 PM

Quote

Trump's Promises to Defeat ISIS 'Quickly' Run Into Syria Buzzsaw

Dan De Luce and Paul McLeary
Foreign Policy Magazine March 3, 2017


(https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/rOp_HW_xHyI3BXU.Evcm4g--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9ODAw/http://media.zenfs.com/en-US/homerun/foreign_policy_magazine/7a7a376c4bb5537eced8c641f18c7b43)

The agonizing decision whether to arm the Kurds to beat ISIS, or defer to Turkey's sensibilities, is Trump's first big test.


A small American outpost deep in Kurdish-held territory in northern Syria could soon become the supply hub for a U.S.-backed push on the Islamic State stronghold of Raqqa. It could also become the flashpoint for a showdown between Washington, which wants to knock Islamic State out of its headquarters in Raqqa, and Turkey, which hates the idea of Kurds storming an Arab city.

Located near the city of Kobani, a dirt airstrip next to the sandbagged base can handle massive C-17 cargo planes loaded with weapons, ammunition, and other equipment earmarked for Syrian Arab forces and — possibly — Kurdish fighters, if U.S. generals coordinating the fight get their way.

The two top U.S. generals in the region took a small group of journalists including a television crew on a tour of the base and a training ground last week, showcasing the local fighters being prepared for combat by American military advisors.

It was no accident that Gen. Joseph Votel, head of U.S. Central Command, and Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend, the top general in Iraq and Syria, are showing off their preparations. The visit underscored the view of top commanders that Syrian Kurdish forces offer the only viable way to oust Islamic State from Raqqa, where the extremists are believed to be plotting terrorist attacks against Western targets. The visit came just days before the Pentagon delivered to President Donald Trump, as requested, a slew of options to defeat ISIS.

As the White House weighs the military options for liberating Raqqa from Islamic State control, Trump faces his first major test as commander in chief, one that will help define the new president's approach to key allies and adversaries, his relationship with top U.S. commanders, and the future course of the Syrian civil war and the Middle East.

It's still unclear if he will heed his generals' advice to start arming the Kurds directly and put them on point for the offensive to take back Raqqa. Turkey has demanded their Kurdish foes in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) — who they consider little different from Kurdish terrorists they've fought for decades — be excluded from the operation. Instead, they've proposed their own plan, which would involve Turkish troops and a largely untested Syrian Arab force armed by Ankara.

Townsend said during the tour of northern Syria that Turkey's concerns were understandable and must be taken into account. But the U.S. general described Turkey's strategic choice in stark terms: "Someone is going to have influence over the SDF after Raqqa, and after ISIS is defeated. Who would Ankara wish it to be? They can have their pick: Russia, Iran, the [Syrian] regime, or the United States?"

Using Kurdish troops to take Raqqa carries plenty of risks. It could enrage Turkey, weakening a key brick in America's bulwark against Iran, not to mention risking an all-out war between Turks and Kurds in Syria. It could also give the Islamic State a propaganda boost if non-Arabs pour into a Syrian city.

But waiting until diplomatically suitable Arab forces are ready to fight is also risky, especially for a president who thinks in Manichean terms and who favors quick, seemingly decisive action. As long as Raqqa remains in Islamic State hands, Western governments — particularly France — worry about a terrorist attack hatched in the ISIS sanctuary. U.S. intelligence agencies have repeatedly warned that Islamic State militants continue to plan "external operations" out of Raqqa, and regularly pick up chatter and other information indicating the group is plotting terrorist attacks on U.S. and Western interests.

When Trump took office, he inherited a detailed military blueprint prepared by the Obama administration that called for taking Raqqa with a combination of Syrian Kurdish and Arab fighters trained and armed by the U.S. military. As recently as January, military planners saw the value in attacking both Raqqa and the ISIS stronghold of Mosul in neighboring Iraq simultaneously, to pile pressure on the Islamic State and build momentum against the extremists.

Obama considered giving the green light to the plan in his final days as president, but chose to hold off in deference to the incoming administration, which had asked the Obama team not to go ahead, former officials said.

Now, the Trump White House — led by new national security advisor H.R. McMaster — is reviewing the whole issue, amid public warnings from Turkey against Syrian Kurds playing any role in the liberation of Raqqa.

"The view is — taking it right is more important than taking it quickly," said one Republican congressional staffer. "This judgment is bubbling up that it might be better to pause."

The SDF includes Syrian Kurdish and Arab components, but U.S. military advisors and top Pentagon leadership consider the Kurdish troops to be more effective and more experienced. For the Raqqa offensive to proceed, the Trump administration would need to formally authorize logistical and other support for the Syrian Kurdish forces — a move that would infuriate America's NATO ally, Turkey.

From Ankara's perspective, the 27,000 Kurds in the SDF are little more than an arm of the PKK, a terrorist group that has fought a bloody separatist campaign in southern Turkey for decades. While Washington — like the European Union — recognizes the PKK as a terrorist organization, and nods to historical links between that group and Syrian Kurds, U.S. policy is that armed Syrian Kurds aren't a terror group.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has for months warned that the SDF was in his crosshairs. After pushing the Islamic State out of the northern Syrian city of al-Bab late last month, "Turkey's new target in Syria is Manbij," he told reporters on Wednesday.

"Manbij is a city that belongs to the Arabs, and the SDF also must not be in Raqqa," Erdogan said.

Last fall, Ankara pushed several thousand rebels along with Turkish commandos into northern Syria to keep Kurdish fighters from forming an unbroken Kurdish area of influence across Turkey's entire southern border. And skirmishes between Turkish-backed rebels and Kurds around Manbij over the past several days — close to where U.S. forces are training Syrian rebels — point to more trouble ahead.

In a move that further inflamed tensions with Turkey, one local group that has close ties to the U.S., the Manbij Military Council, handed several villages over to Syrian government units this week in an effort to erect a buffer between them and the Turkish forces.

Though the Kurds make up more than half of the 50,000-strong SDF, American advisors say the Arab element is growing rapidly, with 4,000 Arab fighters completing U.S. training over the past several months. French and Jordanian commandos are also operating in northern Syria as part of the training program, one American officer on the ground in Syria told Foreign Policy.

To placate Turkey, options being floated by U.S. commanders include providing the SDF equipment only on a temporary basis, or limiting their supply of ammunition on a need-to-have basis.

Sidelining the Kurds may not be the best military solution, but it might be the smartest move in terms of the bigger picture of regional security.

James Jeffrey, a former ambassador to Iraq whose opinion carries weight among Defense Department officials, said it would be a mistake to adopt a battle plan that ignored Turkey, as Washington cannot afford to lose Ankara as a partner in countering Iran's influence in the region and addressing the grievances of Sunni Arabs in Iraq and Syria.

"It's very important that we just not defeat ISIS but that we handle those broader challenges, ensuring the Iranians don't run amok," said Jeffrey, now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

The former diplomat recommended the United States postpone any assault on Raqqa until after Turkey holds its constitutional referendum on April 16, as Erdogan cannot be seen at home to strike any compromise with the Kurds during the political campaign.

But waiting to launch an offensive carries the risk that the SDF will become distracted by other priorities or lose faith in their American patrons. And opting for a Turkey-led operation could backfire if the Arab fighters that Ankara has bankrolled fail to perform as promised.

Turkey's plan has other blemishes. To establish a logistical supply line from its force near the border south toward Raqqa, Turkey would have to reach an agreement with the Syrian Kurds, or else have to fight their way through Kurdish-held areas to get to Raqqa.

And when Turkey presented its plans for the Raqqa assault to Washington, military officers and Defense Department officials came away unimpressed. "That's not something that passed the rigor of the Pentagon," a former Obama administration official told FP.

There is one other, literally "America First" option, beyond relying solely on quickly-trained U.S-backed Kurds and Arabs, or Turkish-backed Arabs. Until now, U.S. military commanders have ruled out anything beyond some artillery support and an advisory role for U.S. special operations forces. But some officials and administration advisors are open to at least considering the idea of using conventional forces in a full-fledged combat role.

Under one possible scenario, American armored units — similar to the approach used in Fallujah in 2004 during the U.S. occupation of Iraq — could help seize the city before later transferring control to Syrian Arab forces.

In testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last month, Jeffrey raised the possibility of a several thousand-strong U.S. armored contingent punching through to Raqqa.


Photo Credit: DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP/Getty Images
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on March 06, 2017, 08:59:06 PM
https://www.dodbuzz.com/2017/03/06/us-stryker-combat-vehicles-seen-near-syrian-flashpoint-town/

Possible boner developing.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 06, 2017, 09:17:23 PM
It's gonna suck with the cossacks accidentally bomb Siegy.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on March 07, 2017, 12:47:13 PM
I honestly am not sure why the US even bothers. ISIS seems to be a European problem.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on March 08, 2017, 11:48:00 PM
Battle of the Five Armies: Syrian Edition

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/03/08/marines-have-arrived-in-syria-to-fire-artillery-in-the-fight-for-raqqa/?utm_term=.ad60cb03799e (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/03/08/marines-have-arrived-in-syria-to-fire-artillery-in-the-fight-for-raqqa/?utm_term=.ad60cb03799e)

Quote

Marines have arrived in Syria to fire artillery in the fight for Raqqa
By Dan Lamothe and Thomas Gibbons-Neff March 8 at 1:54 PM

Marines from an amphibious task force have left their ships in the Middle East and deployed to Syria, establishing an outpost from which they can fire artillery guns in support of the fight to take back the city of Raqqa from the Islamic State, defense officials said.

The deployment marks a new escalation in the U.S. war in Syria, and puts more conventional U.S. troops in the battle. Several hundred Special Operations troops have advised local forces there for months, but the Pentagon has mostly shied away from using conventional forces in Syria. The new mission comes as the Trump administration weighs a plan to take back Raqqa, the so-called capital of the Islamic State, that also includes more Special Operations troops and attack helicopters.

The force is part of the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, which left San Diego on Navy ships in October. The Marines on the ground include part of an artillery battery that can fire powerful 155-millimeter shells from M777 Howitzers, two officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the deployment.

The expeditionary unit's ground force, Battalion Landing Team 1st Battalion, 4th Marines, will man the guns and deliver fire support for U.S.-backed local forces who are preparing an assault on the city. Additional infantrymen from the unit will provide security while resupplies will be handled by part of the expeditionary force's combat logistics element. For this deployment, the Marines were flown from Dijibouti to Kuwait and then into Syria, said another defense official with direct knowledge of the operation.

The official added that the Marines movement into Syria was not the byproduct of President Donald Trump's request of a new plan to take on the Islamic State and that it had "been in the works for sometime."

"The Marines answer a problem that the [operation] has faced," the official said. He added that they now provide "all-weather fires considering how the weather is this time of year in northern Syria."

Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend, the top U.S. general overseeing the campaign against the Islamic State, has previously said that a small number of conventional soldiers have supported Special Operations troops on the ground in Syria, including through a truck-mounted system known as the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS. The defense official with knowledge of the deployment said Wednesday that the Marines and their Howitzers will supplement, rather than replace, those Army units.

The new Marine mission was disclosed after members of the Army's elite 75th Ranger Regiment appeared in the Syrian city of Manbij over the weekend in Strykers, heavily armed, eight-wheel armored vehicles. Defense officials said they are there to discourage Syrian or Turkish troops from taking any moves that could shift the focus away from an assault on Islamic State militants.

The Marine mission has similarities to an operation the Marine Corps undertook about a year ago when the U.S. military was preparing to support an assault on the Iraqi city of Mosul. In that case, a force from the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit, of Camp Lejeune, N.C., established a fire base south of the city in support of Iraqi and Kurdish troops who were then carrying out operations to isolate Mosul from Islamic State-held territory around it.

The existence of the outpost near Mosul, originally named Fire Base Bell, became public after it was attacked by rockets March 19, 2016, killing Staff Sgt. Louis F. Cardin and wounding at least four other Marines. Defense officials said at the time that they had not disclosed the deployment of Marines there because the base was not fully operational, although photographs released by the Defense Department shortly afterward show Marines launching artillery rounds a day before Cardin's death.

For the base in Syria to be useful, it must be within about 20 miles of the operations U.S.-backed forces are carrying out. That is the estimated maximum range on many rounds fired from the M777 howitzer. GPS-guided Excalibur rounds, which the Marines also used after establishing Fire Base Bell, can travel closer to 30 miles. Fire support for the Mosul operation has since been turned over to the Army.

So, the US Army is in Manbij, Syria to keep the Syrian Kurds and Turks from fighting each other and focused on the ISIS threat. The US Marines are near Raqqa, Syria to aid with the multi-pronged attack on the ISIS capital.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on March 09, 2017, 07:53:01 PM
Another 400 American troops on their way

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/09/world/middleeast/us-troops-syria.html?_r=0
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Grinning_Colossus on March 09, 2017, 08:09:13 PM
Good on the new administration for not abandoning the Kurds yet.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on March 09, 2017, 10:32:12 PM
Part of the 82nd's 2nd BCT is to deploy to Kuwait.

AIRBORNE BONER.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 09, 2017, 10:44:03 PM
Yay.  Blowing up the same dune coons since '91.  Zzzzzz.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on March 09, 2017, 11:17:43 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 09, 2017, 10:44:03 PM
Yay.  Blowing up the same dune coons since '91.  Zzzzzz.

Patience grasshopper. Gooks might be getting greased in a bit. Let's cleanse our palette with some good old fashioned towel head killing.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 09, 2017, 11:29:33 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Ff0M7pIo.gif&hash=93986a9cc2fead65d3c412891cfecd0db90b28bc)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on March 09, 2017, 11:37:47 PM
 :lol:

About as funny as the guy who fired a RPG into the wall point blank.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on March 10, 2017, 10:06:47 AM
WTF is that? Self immolation suicide, or a very poorly designed fuel bomb?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: HVC on March 10, 2017, 10:12:08 AM
Quote from: Berkut on March 10, 2017, 10:06:47 AM
WTF is that? Self immolation suicide, or a very poorly designed fuel bomb?

Instructions unclear.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on March 10, 2017, 01:08:56 PM
Quote from: Berkut on March 10, 2017, 10:06:47 AM
WTF is that? Self immolation suicide, or a very poorly designed fuel bomb?

a bad benny hill scetch...
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on March 10, 2017, 03:22:50 PM
Quote from: Berkut on March 10, 2017, 10:06:47 AM
WTF is that? Self immolation suicide, or a very poorly designed fuel bomb?

It was the local fire department failing a drill.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on March 10, 2017, 08:43:47 PM
Quote from: HVC on March 10, 2017, 10:12:08 AM
Quote from: Berkut on March 10, 2017, 10:06:47 AM
WTF is that? Self immolation suicide, or a very poorly designed fuel bomb?

Inshallah unclear.

Fixed.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 23, 2017, 01:34:38 PM
Most of Mosul has been recaptured and nobody seems to give a shit.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 23, 2017, 01:40:50 PM
The US possibly dropping ordnance on over 200 civilians puts a damper on things.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on March 25, 2017, 09:48:13 PM
Looks like we're going to get deeply involved without any forethought or planning at all.  Yay  :wacko:

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_58d5d3f5e4b0f633072b37db?
Quote
Sen. Chris Murphy, Contributor
United States Senator for Connecticut

Trump Is Dragging Us Into Another War... And No One Is Talking About It

While Americans have been focused on the ACA and Trump's ties to Russia, Trump has been busy expanding the American troop presence inside Syria.

03/25/2017 11:47 am ET | Updated 9 hours ago

Quietly, while Americans have been focused on the ongoing drama over repealing the Affordable Care Act and the new revelations about the Trump campaign's ties to Russia, President Trump has been busy dramatically expanding the American troop presence inside Syria. And virtually no one in Washington has noticed. Americans have a right to know what Trump is planning and whether this will lead to an Iraq-style occupation of Syria for years to come.

Without any official notification, Trump sent 500 new American troops into Syria, ostensibly to take part in the upcoming assault on the ISIS stronghold of Raqqa. News reports suggest this deployment may just be the tip of the iceberg, with some saying that the plan is for hundreds more American troops to be added to the fight in the coming weeks. No one actually knows how many troops are inside Syria now, because the administration has largely tried to keep the build-up a secret.

This deployment poses a significant, potentially catastrophic risk for the United States and the future of Syria and the Middle East. Congress cannot be silent on this matter. I have long been against putting U.S. troops on the ground in Syria—I opposed the idea during the Obama administration and I oppose it now, because I believe we are destined to repeat the mistakes of the Iraq War if we try to force political stability simply through the barrel of a gun. I would urge my colleagues who have not focused on the question of U.S. troop presence in Syria to, at the very least, demand the administration answer two basic questions before signing off on the money to fund this dangerous escalation.

First, what is our mission and what is our exit strategy?

The public explanation of the military escalation has been to prepare for the assault on Raqqa. Taking Raqqa is a necessary and long-desired objective. The problem lies in making U.S. troops an indispensible part of the invasion force, which likely will require us to stay and become an indispensible part of the occupation force as well. This is what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan, and I see no reason why we wouldn't face the same trap in Syria. But if this is not the administration's plan, they should be explicit about this. They should assure Congress and the American public that we are in Syria simply until Raqqa falls, and no longer.

There are other important questions to ask. Recently, Trump sent a small group of Special Forces operators to Manbij to keep the peace between Kurdish and Turkish-backed forces fighting for control of this remote section of northern Syria. This suggests our military mission is much broader—and more complicated—than simply helping to retake Raqqa.

Many Syria experts agree that once Raqqa is taken from ISIS, the fighting is just beginning. The contest then begins between the various proxy forces (Saudi, Iranian, Russian, Turkish, Kurdish) over who ultimately controls the city. Will U.S. forces leave at that point, or does Trump's plan envision that we will stay to mediate future control of large portions of the battlespace? This would be a mirror of Iraq, in which thousands of Americans died trying to figure out the post-Saddam settlement of accounts between the Sunnis, Shia, and Kurds. And it could result in just as much American bloodshed.

Second, do we have a political strategy or just a military strategy?

This past Thursday, I joined other members of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee for lunch with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. I was glad that Tillerson was willing to open the doors of the State Department to a bipartisan group of Senators, and our discussion was honest and frank. In the meeting, Tillerson showed admirable candor in admitting that the military strategy was far ahead of the diplomatic strategy in Syria.

But this was actually a dramatic understatement. Unless a secret plan exists that Trump is keeping from U.S. Senators and his own Secretary of State, there is absolutely no plan for who controls post-ISIS Raqqa, or post-Assad Syria.

The obstacles to a political plan for the future of Raqqa increase by the week. U.S. military leaders want to rely on Kurdish and Arab fighters to retake Raqqa, but hope that the Kurds will then abandon the city after they lose hundreds or thousands of their soldiers in the assault. Even if this fantasy were to become reality, it would come at a price – the Kurds would expect something in return for their effort. And today, we have no idea how to execute this two-step without having peace undermined by the Turks, who remain violently opposed to giving territory the Kurds. To add complications, the Russian and Iranian-backed forces, sitting just outside Raqqa today, are not going to allow for a U.S.-backed Arab or Arab/Kurdish government to be peacefully installed inside the city. They will want a piece of the action, and we have no credible plan to accommodate them today.

Without a political plan for the future of Raqqa, a military plan is practically useless. Yes, getting ISIS out of Raqqa is a victory in and of itself, but if we set into motion a series of events that simply prolongs the broader conflict, ISIS will easily pick up the pieces and use the ongoing turmoil to regroup and reemerge. We should have learned in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya that a military victory without a plan for what comes next is really not a victory at all. But unbelievably, we seem on the verge of making this mistake again, because of (understandable) enthusiasm for taking the fight to a vicious enemy.

I want ISIS gone. I want them destroyed.  But I want it done the right way. I do not want to Americans to die and billions of dollars to be wasted in a war that makes the same mistakes as the disastrous American invasion of Iraq. And I certainly don't want the war to start in secret, without Congress even noticing that it's starting. Congress needs to get in the game and start asking questions - before it's too late.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on March 26, 2017, 01:51:59 AM
Well, somebody has to clean up Russia's new backyard for them.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on April 04, 2017, 09:09:49 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/04/syria-chemical-attack-idlib-province

QuoteSyria: suspected chemical attack kills dozens in Idlib province

Doctors say victims from attack on Khan Sheikhun were bleeding from the nose and mouth, had constricted irises and suffered from convulsions

WARNING: Some readers may find the images in this article distressing

Dozens of people have been killed in a suspected chemical attack in rebel-held northern Syria, in one of the largest mass casualty incidents using a toxic gas in the six-year conflict.

The death toll rose to 67 in the hours after the attack on Khan Sheikhun in Idlib province on Tuesday morning. Doctors said the victims exhibited symptoms apparently matching those caused by exposure to deadly sarin gas. Scores more people were injured.

The raids were carried out by planes believed to be loyal to the government of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. Later, a series of airstrikes on the same town targeted a hospital and two emergency response centres that were recovering and treating victims of the initial strike.

The attack came a day after the US ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, said the US government was no longer focused on Assad's removal from office, and as a two-day conference on Syria's future, hosted by the EU and UN, began in Brussels.

The international chemical weapons watchdog said it was gathering and analysing information. The French foreign minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault, demanded an emergency UN security council meeting.

Khan Sheikhun houses thousands of refugees from the nearby province of Hama who have fled the fighting there.

"In this most recent attack, dozens of children suffocated to death while they slept," said Ahmad Tarakji, the head of the Syrian American Medical Society, which supports hospitals in opposition-controlled areas in Syria. "This should strike at the very core of our humanity. How much longer will the world fail to respond to these heinous crimes?"

SAMS said its doctors had determined that the symptoms of the patients were consistent with exposure to organic phosphorus compounds like the nerve agent sarin, which is banned by the Chemical Weapons Convention.

"Everyone is horrified and the children are in total shock," said Mohammad Hassoun, a spokesman for civil defence rescue workers in the nearby town of Sarmin, which received 14 of the wounded.

Hassoun said the victims were bleeding from the nose and mouth, had constricted irises and suffered from convulsions.

The casualties have been distributed across a wide range of hospitals in Idlib, with some sent north towards Turkey. There were reports that casualties driven to the Bab al-Hawa crossing on the Turkish border were experiencing difficulties in entering the country for emergency relief.

"The total number of wounded is incredible, so far it's over 200," said Mohammad, a doctor at another hospital in Idlib. "We received over 20 victims and most of them are children, and two of them in the ICU are extremely critical. There are a lot of injured and most of these who were near the epicentre of the attack are either dead or in intensive care.

"The families are in a terrible state because they expect the victims to die."

Mohammad said the victims he had seen had constricted irises, low oxygen and poor blood pressure and were drifting in and out of consciousness. Many were on respirators.

Few hospitals in Idlib have the capacity to deal with the symptoms of chemical attacks due to the repeated bombing of medical facilities by forces loyal to the government, and lack sufficient oxygen tanks to treat victims.

Idlib is one of the last bastions of rebel control in Syria, and has been subjected to a relentless campaign of aerial bombardment despite a supposed ceasefire brokered earlier this year by Russia and Turkey that was aimed at paving the way for political negotiations.

The raid in Khan Sheikhun indicates the growing confidence of Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad. Assad has wrested control of territory from the rebels, including the entire city of Aleppo, in recent months. His regime has benefited from the unflinching support of Moscow and Shia militias backed by Iran, as well as waning support for the opposition by its allies in the region and the new American administration.

The attack will refocus attention on the failure of the international community to prevent the worst abuses in Syria's war, and casts doubt on a signature achievement by the administration of Barack Obama, which negotiated the presumed destruction of Assad's chemical arsenal in 2013.

That deal followed a sarin gas attack on eastern Ghouta near Damascus in August 2013 that killed more than 1,000 people and nearly prompted an American intervention in the conflict.

Since then, chemical attacks have continued on a smaller scale, mostly deploying chlorine gas, which was not covered by the deal because it has industrial uses. The deployment of toxic gas on this scale is an escalation of Assad's war and indicates that his military still retains supplies of banned chemical weapons.

"The world doesn't care and no one will do anything," said one British doctor working in northern Syria to assist local hospitals, who shared footage of the patients arriving at his clinic.

The footage showed patients arriving with their shirts removed and being hooked up to respirators, as well as disturbing images of dead children who had suffocated.

The Syrian opposition described the attack as "appalling" and called on the UN security council to take action.

"The Assad regime continues to use internationally prohibited weapons in bombing civilian areas in a blatant violation of the fourth Geneva convention and UN security council resolutions 2118, 2209, 2235 and 2254," the opposition Syrian coalition said. "These crimes would not have happened again had it not been for the lukewarm response by the international community and its failure to ensure protection for civilians."
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 04, 2017, 06:50:46 PM
QuotePresident Trump on Tuesday said a deadly gas attack in Syria carried out by forces loyal to Syrian leader Bashar Assad is a "consequence" of former President Obama's approach to the country's civil war.

"Today's chemical attack in Syria against innocent people, including women and children, is reprehensible and cannot be ignored by the civilized world," Trump said in a statement.

The president faulted his predecessor for helping create the conditions for the attack when he backed away from his 2012 "red line" on Assad's use of chemical weapons.

"These heinous actions by the Bashar al-Assad regime are a consequence of the past administration's weakness and irresolution," Trump said.

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/327259-trump-hits-obama-after-syrian-gas-attack


Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on April 04, 2017, 06:53:00 PM
Typical Russian politician, blaming everything on America.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on April 05, 2017, 04:09:49 AM
Official Russian line is that an air strike hit a rebel stockpile of chemical weapons. :lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on April 05, 2017, 05:36:14 AM
I am absolutely ready to believe both versions of this story.

I have no doubt Assad and the Russians are capable of nerve gassing civilians, and I have no doubt the desperate rebels would be happy to try and spin a story like that to get support.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on April 05, 2017, 07:30:46 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 05, 2017, 05:36:14 AM
I am absolutely ready to believe both versions of this story.

I have no doubt Assad and the Russians are capable of nerve gassing civilians, and I have no doubt the desperate rebels would be happy to try and spin a story like that to get support.

Sure blaming in on actors in Syria makes sense. Blaming it on Obama less so.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 05, 2017, 10:52:30 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 05, 2017, 05:36:14 AM
I am absolutely ready to believe both versions of this story.

Of course you are.  You're a dick.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on April 05, 2017, 10:57:24 AM
I didn't mean Trump's version FFS :P

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 05, 2017, 11:06:43 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 05, 2017, 10:57:24 AM
I didn't mean Trump's version FFS :P

I didn't mean that version, either.  Dick.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: dps on April 05, 2017, 05:08:18 PM
Maybe we've finally found out where Saddam sent his WMDs.  :)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 05, 2017, 06:07:29 PM
Many, many lines were crossed this day.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on April 05, 2017, 06:58:17 PM
This is a tragedy of course, but I suspect it just an effort to distract us from what is really important.

Hillary's email server.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on April 05, 2017, 07:21:23 PM
I never cease to be amazed how long and protracted and bloody this war is. It is getting hard to imagine how Syria can exist going forward once it is over.

At least we could be relieved, in the past, that we were not a part of it.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Grey Fox on April 05, 2017, 08:28:26 PM
Iran thinks it needs Damas more than some of its own cities. Russia is backing both of them. Not much we can do without just taking over the area.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on April 05, 2017, 08:31:44 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 05, 2017, 07:21:23 PM
I never cease to be amazed how long and protracted and bloody this war is. It is getting hard to imagine how Syria can exist going forward once it is over.
Somalia had one for 25 years, and they manage.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on April 05, 2017, 08:35:39 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 05, 2017, 08:31:44 PM
Somalia had one for 25 years, and they manage.

Do they? Do they really?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 05, 2017, 08:45:29 PM
 :lol:   Manage what?  Flies on eyelids and and distended bellies?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 05, 2017, 11:12:52 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 05, 2017, 07:21:23 PM
I never cease to be amazed how long and protracted and bloody this war is. It is getting hard to imagine how Syria can exist going forward once it is over.

At least we could be relieved, in the past, that we were not a part of it.

Prewar population of about 20 million. 450,000~ killed over six years. That's only 2.25% of the population. The American Civil War had 2.5% killed in four years.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 06, 2017, 12:10:26 AM
Shut up.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2017, 12:44:43 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 06, 2017, 12:10:26 AM
Shut up.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fdata.whicdn.com%2Fimages%2F112588978%2Flarge.jpg&hash=dabee601fa5c0e958531f39843a5f662fd0339b7)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on April 06, 2017, 12:55:59 AM
So what's up with ITV beating the drums of war for two days straight over this? I remember I. Like the first six months of this civil war Assad had ships shell his own people, and this is what, the third case of a gas attack, assuming it really happened? But all of a sudden we are supposed to care when caring means starting WW3?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Monoriu on April 06, 2017, 01:42:16 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 06, 2017, 12:55:59 AM
So what's up with ITV beating the drums of war for two days straight over this? I remember I. Like the first six months of this civil war Assad had ships shell his own people, and this is what, the third case of a gas attack, assuming it really happened? But all of a sudden we are supposed to care when caring means starting WW3?

I think to some extent this is a first test of the Trump administration.  People want to see how he reacts to these events. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2017, 01:50:16 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 06, 2017, 01:42:16 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 06, 2017, 12:55:59 AM
So what's up with ITV beating the drums of war for two days straight over this? I remember I. Like the first six months of this civil war Assad had ships shell his own people, and this is what, the third case of a gas attack, assuming it really happened? But all of a sudden we are supposed to care when caring means starting WW3?

I think to some extent this is a first test of the Trump administration.  People want to see how he reacts to these events.

I'm very skeptical that he will or can make any heel face turn on Assad, however he's so erratic I can't rule it out.

https://www.theatlantic.com/liveblogs/2017/04/news-today/521949/15909/
Quote'What Happened Yesterday Was Unacceptable to Me,' Trump Says of Syrian Chemical Attack

President Trump said the chemical attack in Syria that has been blamed on the Assad regime "crosses many, many lines," as he criticized his predecessor's decision not to take military action after drawing a "red line in the sand." When asked what specific action he'd take, Trump, who met with Jordan's King Abdullah, said: "It's very, very possible, and, I will tell you, it's already happened, that my attitude toward Syria and Assad has changed very much. And if you look back over the last few weeks, there have been other attacks using gas. You're now talking about a whole different level." The Trump administration hasn't yet outlined what steps it might take against Assad. As recently as last week, Nikki Haley, Trump's envoy to the UN, said: "Our priority is no longer to sit and focus on getting Assad out." As I wrote this morning, Russia, Assad's main backer, says yesterday's chemical attack in Khan Sheikhoun was caused by the destruction by Syrian military aircraft of a rebel facility that produced chemical weapons. Rebels, and officials from the U.S. and the U.K. all say Assad's forces carried out the attack. Trump's remarks about the attack follow those of Haley's, who said today: "When the UN consistently fails in its duty to act collectively, there are times in the life of states that we are compelled to take our own action."
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on April 06, 2017, 07:43:09 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 05, 2017, 11:12:52 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 05, 2017, 07:21:23 PM
I never cease to be amazed how long and protracted and bloody this war is. It is getting hard to imagine how Syria can exist going forward once it is over.

At least we could be relieved, in the past, that we were not a part of it.

Prewar population of about 20 million. 450,000~ killed over six years. That's only 2.25% of the population. The American Civil War had 2.5% killed in four years.

Um Tim the majority of those "killed" in the American Civil War died due to 19th century infectious diseases due to people being grouped together with large numbers of other people for the first time. Let's try to compare equivalent eras ok?

And really? "Only" 2.25% of the population? And unless it rises to the level of the most terrible and bloody war in American History its not significant? I mean what is your point here?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2017, 07:55:28 AM
Quote from: Valmy on April 06, 2017, 07:43:09 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 05, 2017, 11:12:52 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 05, 2017, 07:21:23 PM
I never cease to be amazed how long and protracted and bloody this war is. It is getting hard to imagine how Syria can exist going forward once it is over.

At least we could be relieved, in the past, that we were not a part of it.

Prewar population of about 20 million. 450,000~ killed over six years. That's only 2.25% of the population. The American Civil War had 2.5% killed in four years.

Um Tim the majority of those "killed" in the American Civil War died due to 19th century infectious diseases due to people being grouped together with large numbers of other people for the first time. Let's try to compare equivalent eras ok?

And really? "Only" 2.25% of the population? And unless it rises to the level of the most terrible and bloody war in American History its not significant? I mean what is your point here?
If they hadn't been sick they would have been thrown into battle and a similar number would have been killed or wounded anyways, so what does it matter?

I am being pedantic, just as the right and proper Languish way dictates.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on April 06, 2017, 07:59:01 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2017, 07:55:28 AM
If they hadn't been sick they would have been thrown into battle and a similar number would have been killed or wounded anyways, so what does it matter?

I am being pedantic, just as the right and proper Languish way dictates.

So you spent time to calculate the number of dead versus the prewar population for no reason at all? I mean is it really being pedantic if you have no point? Usually pedants at least say you are doing it wrong. So bullshit on you 'being pedantic'. I don't know what the hell you were being.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2017, 08:02:42 AM
Quote from: Valmy on April 06, 2017, 07:59:01 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2017, 07:55:28 AM
If they hadn't been sick they would have been thrown into battle and a similar number would have been killed or wounded anyways, so what does it matter?

I am being pedantic, just as the right and proper Languish way dictates.

So you spent time to calculate the number of dead versus the prewar population for no reason at all? I mean is it really being pedantic if you have no point? Usually pedants at least say you are doing it wrong. So bullshit on you 'being pedantic'. I don't know what the hell you were being.
You said you couldn't imagine Syria surviving. But America survived similar carnage, as did many states in Europe after world war one. Syria will survive as well.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on April 06, 2017, 08:08:36 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2017, 08:02:42 AM
You said you couldn't imagine Syria surviving. But America survived similar carnage, as did many states in Europe after world war one. Syria will survive as well.

This is a different sort of war though. Neither the American Civil War nor World War One were fought almost entirely by civilians. And I said something a bit different. I said I cannot imagine Syria, the nation as it existed before, existing again. As in whatever form it will exist in the future it will be very different from what was so in the past. What that form will be I cannot really imagine at this time.

I have had Somalia be brought up but it is de facto split into at least two states and its war still rages on.

So I guess my question to you is: you say "Syria" will survive. What exactly do you mean by that statement? Survive in what form?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2017, 08:25:45 AM
Quote from: Valmy on April 06, 2017, 08:08:36 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2017, 08:02:42 AM
You said you couldn't imagine Syria surviving. But America survived similar carnage, as did many states in Europe after world war one. Syria will survive as well.

This is a different sort of war though. Neither the American Civil War nor World War One were fought almost entirely by civilians. And I said something a bit different. I said I cannot imagine Syria, the nation as it existed before, existing again. As in whatever form it will exist in the future it will be very different from what was so in the past. What that form will be I cannot really imagine at this time.

I have had Somalia be brought up but it is de facto split into at least two states and its war still rages on.

So I guess my question to you is: you say "Syria" will survive. What exactly do you mean by that statement? Survive in what form?

How was the American Civil War not fought by civilians. There were just 16,000 professionals out of 3 million soldiers.

Well, okay. Obviously it will be a radically different place than it was before. But I don't think it's going to splinter into smaller states. The government is winning to decisively for that.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on April 06, 2017, 08:39:25 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2017, 08:25:45 AM
How was the American Civil War not fought by civilians. There were just 16,000 professionals out of 3 million soldiers.

Well they joined the army and trained for a few months. More than many Napoleonic soldiers got.

QuoteWell, okay. Obviously it will be a radically different place than it was before. But I don't think it's going to splinter into smaller states. The government is winning to decisively for that.

Exactly. And even if it comes to an end soon with a decisive Assad victory his regime will be pretty fragile and have little legitimacy.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2017, 09:26:53 AM
But her emails!

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/04/like-middle-east-wars-youre-gonna-love-president-trump-214985?cmpid=sf

QuoteLike Middle East Wars? You're Gonna Love President Trump

With zero public debate, the new president has thrown America back into the Mideast quagmire.

By COLIN H. KAHL April 05, 2017

In the few short months since he became president, Donald Trump has made clear that his No. 1 foreign policy priority is to "demolish and destroy" Islamic terrorism. Just a week after taking office, Trump visited the Pentagon to task his generals to develop a comprehensive plan to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), saying with characteristic confidence: "I think it's going to be very successful."

In charting a new course to combat terrorism across the greater Middle East, Trump has both embraced and rejected elements of the George W. Bush and Barack Obama approaches—but he has done so in an almost perfectly dysfunctional way. He has escalated U.S. military actions, while remaining diplomatically aloof from festering conflicts and de-emphasizing non-military instruments of American power. The result, so far, is a kind of bizarro-Goldilocks approach: not hot enough, not cold enough—just wrong. Left uncorrected, the emerging Trump doctrine will result in more war, but few sustainable gains against terrorism emanating from the world's most dangerous region.

In framing the terrorist challenge, Trump has taken a page out of Bush's playbook. Like his Republican predecessor, Trump has embraced rhetoric suggesting an existential civilizational clash between the United States and Islamic extremists. After 9/11, Bush declared a "global war on terrorism" in which the United States would aggressively confront the alliance between "Islamic radicalism" and "evil" states like Iraq and Iran. Similarly, in Trump's inaugural address, he declared his administration would "unite the civilized world against radical Islamic terrorism, which we will eradicate completely from the face of the Earth." Trump has also defined "radical Islam" in an incredibly expansive way, encompassing not only Sunni jihadists like ISIS and al Qaeda, but also the Shia Islamic Republic of Iran. But, tellingly, Trump has done so without Bush's caveat that extremists pervert "the peaceful teachings of Islam." Last year, Trump stated bluntly: "Islam hates us" and said it was "very hard" to separate Islam from radical Islam, "because you don't know who's who."

Like Bush, Trump also seems enamored with massive demonstrations of American military might. Despite Trump's complicated history with the Iraq war, he is clearly attracted to the "shock and awe" approach of the 2003 invasion and the military escalation embodied by the 2007 "surge." No phrase better encapsulates this than Trump's campaign promise to "bomb the shit" out of ISIS. And it is reflected in the ease with which he has embraced military escalation during his first few months in office—with almost no public debate.

At the same time, Trump seems to reject Bush-era faith in the transformative potential of military force. Trump wants to kill terrorists (and possibly their families), and he has warned state sponsors of terrorism like Iran that they are "playing with fire." But he claims to reject the notion of regime change. Although Trump's past statements suggest he was initially sympathetic to both the Iraq and Libya interventions, he argued as a candidate that the United States "tore up what institutions they had and then were surprised at what we unleashed. Civil war, religious fanaticism, thousands of Americans [killed]...Many trillions of dollars were lost as a result. The vacuum was created that ISIS would fill. Iran, too, would rush in and fill that void."

And while Trump has consistently stated his desire to crush America's terrorist enemies, he has no apparent interest in picking up the pieces. Trump has described the Middle East as "one big, fat quagmire." He believes the responsibility for rebuilding shattered countries should fall on regional and local actors, and the United States should "[get] out of the nation-building business." In an "America first" world, these are simply not burdens the United States should bear.

A surface-level comparison suggests a lot of similarities with Obama's approach. Obama carried out a relentless campaign against terrorist networks, as demonstrated by the special operations raid that killed Osama Bin Laden, the decimation of core al Qaeda in Pakistan, the expansive U.S. drone campaign against other high-value terrorists, and more than 16,000 airstrikes against ISIS. Obama was also reticent about regime change, with one exception: Libya, where a civilian protection mission morphed into toppling Muammar Qaddafi's regime. Obama eventually came to see it as his biggest mistake. Obama regularly emphasized the need to do more "nation-building at home" and less abroad. And he championed an "indirect approach" that worked by, with, and through coalition partners and local allies on the ground rather than having large numbers of U.S. forces enmeshed in murky conflicts.

And yet, Trump's divergences with Obama are becoming increasingly clear. During the campaign, Trump railed against Obama for being too cautious, too squeamish and too transparent about troop deployments. Last April, for example, Trump told a Connecticut crowd:

"We're gonna beat ISIS very, very quickly folks. It's gonna be fast. I have a great plan...They ask, 'What is it?' Well, I'd rather not say. I'd rather be unpredictable.

"I don't want to be like Barack Obama where he announced a few months ago we are sending 50 soldiers, our finest, to Iraq and Syria. Why do you announce that? Why do you tell the enemy that your sending people over there and they now have a target on their backs?"

Trump has consistently pledged to pick up the pace of military actions against terrorist networks, even if it increases risks to civilians, and he has promised to keep his plans "secret."

So far, Trump seems to be keeping his promises.


An initial draft of the Pentagon review Trump requested in January has since been submitted and internally discussed at the White House. And while no strategy change has been formally decided or announced, and important parts of the campaign in Iraq and Syria remain consistent with what Trump inherited, several shifts appear to already be underway.

Trump appears to be deploying more forces, and moving those already in the field closer to the fight. The number of U.S. forces in northern Syria has doubled in the past month, with 400 Marines and Army rangers joining the 500 U.S. special operations forces deployed by Obama (and reports suggest the Pentagon may request even more forces soon to support the assault on ISIS's capital Raqqa). Meanwhile, in Iraq, hundreds of U.S. soldiers have been sent to reinforce the assault on ISIS in Mosul, with many more waiting in the wings in Kuwait. And reports indicate that American military advisers in Iraq are getting much closer to the front lines.

Beyond deepening U.S. involvement in established war zones, Trump has also signed off on expanded authorities for conducting military operations outside these areas, loosening Obama-era rules intended to protect innocent civilians. Under Obama, strikes against terrorists outside "areas of active hostilities" in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan were subject to significant constraints and White House oversight. To take action, the Pentagon had to demonstrate that an individual (or network of individuals) represented a "continuing and imminent threat" to the United States, the intelligence had to confirm the target and there had to be "near certainty" that no civilians would be killed by the strike.

Trump has already taken action to unshackle the military from these rules. During the same Jan. 25 dinner in which Trump greenlit the disastrous Jan. 29 special operations forces raid in Yemen, the president also agreed to a proposal made by Defense Secretary James Mattis to declare large areas of Yemen active areas of hostilities. This gives the U.S. military much greater latitude to conduct operations against al Qaeda's local affiliate, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), without checking back with the White House before each strike. Operations in Yemen will continue to be governed by the laws of war, as they are in Iraq and Syria, but the U.S. military will be able to target a much larger range of individuals, the threshold for actionable intelligence will be lower and the acceptable level of collateral damage will be higher. As a result, the Trump administration has already carried out 70 airstrikes in Yemen, nearly double the number the Obama administration conducted in all of 2016. (Trump has reportedly granted a similar expansion of authorities for Somalia, and may also be asked to consider doing so for Libya.)

Finally, the Trump administration has taken steps to scale back transparency. Although some information has trickled out about recent troop deployments, the Pentagon said last week that it will no longer "routinely announce or confirm information about the capabilities, force numbers, locations or movement of forces in or out of Iraq and Syria."

In the near term, Trump's approach may kill more terrorists and achieve tactical gains. But its single-minded emphasis on military escalation carries with it real dangers that could produce strategic defeat.

First, Trump's approach is already significantly increasing the risks to innocent civilians caught up in America's expanding military campaign. According to the non-governmental organization Airwars, the number of alleged civilian deaths from U.S. airstrikes in Iraq and Syria has increased dramatically since Trump took office. In just one strike in Mosul last month, at least 100 (and perhaps as many as 200) Iraqi civilians may have perished.

General Joseph Votel, the commander of all U.S. forces in the Middle East, has insisted that this is not a result of changes in American "rules of engagement," but rather a consequence of the intensifying U.S.-backed military campaigns to take Mosul and Raqqa. Defense officials have confirmed, however, that U.S. forces at lower levels of command have been delegated the authority to call in airstrikes—and with more American troops closer to the fight, that means more strikes. Despite the great care the U.S. military takes to avoid collateral damage, dropping more bombs in dense urban environments like Mosul and Raqqa inevitably means more civilians will die.

Furthermore, as the list of countries considered areas of active hostilities grows beyond Iraq and Syria, we can expect civilian casualties to rise in places like Yemen and Somalia as well. The Jan. 29 Yemen raid that resulted in the death of a U.S. Navy SEAL, for example, also allegedly left more than a dozen civilians dead, including several children.

Beyond the moral implications, a surge in civilian casualties could undermine the efficacy of the U.S. counterterrorism campaign. The United States has benefited from the notion that, unlike ISIS and al Qaeda, it does not wantonly kill innocents. That perception could now be put in jeopardy. As Hussam Essa, a founder of an organization that monitors violence in Raqqa, told the Washington Post: "People used to feel safe when the American planes were in the sky, because they knew they didn't hit civilians. They were only afraid of the Russian and regime planes. But now they are very afraid of the American airstrikes." If sentiments like this become widespread, it could shift the sympathies of local residents back in the direction of jihadists, complicating the liberation of ISIS's remaining strongholds and increasing prospects for the re-emergence of extremism in the aftermath.

Second, Trump's "shoot first" approach appears to have no accompanying civilian elements. Trump's proposal to cut the State Department and U.S. Agency for International Development budgets by nearly a third shows that he places little value on diplomacy and foreign assistance. Not surprisingly, the Trump administration has said nothing about how it intends to complement an escalating military campaign across the Middle East with non-military action.

The 2003 Iraq war and 2011 Libya interventions may have revealed the folly of U.S.-imposed regime change, but they also demonstrated the dangers of not having a coherent diplomatic and stabilization plan to sustain the gains from successful military campaigns. Obama was keenly aware of this problem (indeed, the failure in Libya made him more aware). Consequently, his approach in Syria and Yemen sought to carefully calibrate U.S. military actions to avoid sinking into a quagmire, while pursuing diplomatic settlements and rallying the world to provide humanitarian assistance to ease the suffering. In Iraq, moreover, Obama held off intervening against ISIS until there was a political agreement to remove the noxious former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. And, as the methodical U.S.-led campaign to dismantle the Islamic State progressed, the Obama administration conducted extensive "day after" planning and fundraising for stabilization and reconstruction in liberated Iraqi cities.

Yet, despite these hard lessons, it is not clear if Trump has a strategy that incorporates any "non-kinetic" dimensions. This is a big mistake. In Iraq, for example, ISIS 2.0 is likely to rise like a phoenix from the ashes unless the administration has a plan to work with the international community to help rebuild liberated cities, assist in demobilizing and reintegrating Shia militias, and work with Iraqis to manage the sectarian and Arab-Kurd tensions that will inevitably resurface once ISIS is expelled.

Similarly, in Syria, there is little hope of sustainably vanquishing ISIS or al Qaeda unless a political formula is found to end the Syrian war. The Trump administration has signaled that the United States will no longer insist on President Bashar al-Assad's departure. Trump also says he wants to cooperate with Assad's backers in Moscow to combat ISIS and al Qaeda. Fine. But the administration has been silent on how it might seek to diplomatically leverage these concessions—and mobilize possible assistance to rebuild the country—to help produce a meaningful ceasefire and eventual political settlement.

In Yemen, the Trump administration is contemplating a double escalation: a wider campaign against AQAP and more military assistance to the Saudi and Emirati coalition waging war against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. Yet, here too, the administration lacks any supporting diplomatic or assistance plan. Providing more help to U.S. allies, and putting more pressure on Iranian-backed adversaries, may generate useful leverage. But the administration has no apparent strategy to cash in on this opportunity to force both sides of Yemen's civil war to agree to a power-sharing deal. Nor does it appear to have a humanitarian plan to mitigate the possibility that a U.S.-backed escalation could jeopardize the already tenuous flow of food into the country, potentially triggering a famine that kills millions of Yemenis.

Last but not least, accelerating the U.S. military campaign across the Middle East risks outpacing the efforts and capabilities of local actors to take ownership over the fight, potentially resulting in deepening U.S. involvement with no exit strategy—the exact opposite of what Trump claims he wants. Because the United States has the finest fighting forces in the world, there is always the temptation to substitute U.S. troops for less capable partners on the ground. Doing so may accelerate tactical victories against ISIS or other jihadists, but it will leave American G.I.'s holding the bag—and bearing the burden.

The risk of mission creep is compounded by Trump's penchant for secrecy regarding how U.S. military forces are being deployed. The lack of transparency guts public accountability at the very time when more U.S. forces are being put in harm's way, risking ever-expanding commitments with no real public debate.

The only sustainable outcomes in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and elsewhere are ones in which local forces prove willing and able to hold and govern the areas U.S. forces help liberate from jihadist control. For that reason, the scope and scale of U.S. military operations must constantly be adjusted so U.S. actions do not get too far out in front. Avoiding mission creep takes patience and a degree of U.S. restraint—neither of which is a Trump hallmark. It also requires being straight with the American people about the nature of U.S. involvement.

Barely two-and-a-half months into the new administration, Trump's approach to combating jihadist terrorism across the Middle East seems to represent the worst of all worlds: just enough swagger and military escalation to guarantee ever deepening involvement without a holistic strategy to sustain military gains and create conditions for the United States to eventually extricate itself. As a result, a president that promised fewer entanglements could find himself sinking deeper and deeper into Middle Eastern quicksand, squandering blood and treasure and inciting regional blowback with no end in sight. That's not what the American people signed up for. And it is not a path to sustainably defeat America's enemies.

In 2014, during a trip to Asia, Obama was asked by reporters on Air Force One to encapsulate his foreign policy doctrine. The president responded: "Don't do stupid shit." Obama was roundly criticized by both the Washington foreign policy establishment and the anti-establishment Trump for being too cautious in using force and too reticent in projecting American power in the Middle East. Yet, overcorrecting by abandoning military caution while jettisoning diplomacy and other non-military tools, as Trump appears to be doing, is not the answer. After all, "doing stupid shit" is not a great doctrine, either.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: FunkMonk on April 06, 2017, 09:47:13 AM
Prediction: Donald is gonna put 10,000 American troops on the ground in Syria.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on April 06, 2017, 09:49:37 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on April 06, 2017, 09:47:13 AM
Prediction: Donald is gonna put 10,000 American troops on the ground in Syria.

That authorization to use military force act seems to have morphed into perpetual permission to send in entire armies of troops into the Middle East whenever the President thinks it is a good idea.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Grey Fox on April 06, 2017, 10:42:00 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on April 06, 2017, 09:47:13 AM
Prediction: Donald is gonna put 10,000 American troops on the ground in Syria.

Way more, 60k.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on April 06, 2017, 11:58:56 AM
Not more than 640k.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 06, 2017, 11:59:42 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on April 06, 2017, 09:47:13 AM
Prediction: Donald is gonna put 10,000 American troops on the ground in Syria.

He inherited a mess.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on April 06, 2017, 12:08:31 PM
No shit.  It was the previous guy's fault.

And Haig's.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on April 06, 2017, 12:09:14 PM
Quote from: derspiess on April 06, 2017, 12:08:31 PM
No shit.  It was the previous guy's fault.

And Haig's.

I tend to blame Assad.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on April 06, 2017, 02:00:59 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on April 06, 2017, 09:47:13 AM
Prediction: Donald is gonna put 10,000 American troops on the ground in Syria.

Nah, he'll just train seven rebels. Three will be captured and the other four will desert and sell their weapons.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on April 06, 2017, 02:05:02 PM
Quote from: citizen k on April 06, 2017, 02:00:59 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on April 06, 2017, 09:47:13 AM
Prediction: Donald is gonna put 10,000 American troops on the ground in Syria.

Nah, he'll just train seven rebels. Three will be captured and the other four will desert and sell their weapons.

You joke but this is really the reason why we should not be sending troops into Syria. We have nobody to support in the war. Unless our troops are going to stay there forever we have to hand our shared interests off to somebody. If there is nobody with shared interests we have no prospect for success.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: FunkMonk on April 06, 2017, 02:11:10 PM
We're all going to die  :Embarrass:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on April 06, 2017, 03:30:45 PM
FFS what do we have to gain?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on April 06, 2017, 04:00:19 PM
Quote from: derspiess on April 06, 2017, 03:30:45 PM
FFS what do we have to gain?

An empire?  ;)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on April 06, 2017, 04:02:58 PM
Quote from: citizen k on April 06, 2017, 04:00:19 PM
Quote from: derspiess on April 06, 2017, 03:30:45 PM
FFS what do we have to gain?

An empire?  ;)

Meh. Empires should pay. Syria would be a drain.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on April 06, 2017, 04:03:27 PM
Quote from: derspiess on April 06, 2017, 03:30:45 PM
FFS what do we have to gain?

Why don't you want to accomplish a mission?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: katmai on April 06, 2017, 08:25:32 PM
Send in the Tomahawks.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on April 06, 2017, 08:26:03 PM
I HAVE A BONER
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2017, 08:36:05 PM
Trump attacks Assad!

QuoteBREAKING: The U.S. has launched a missile strike on a Syrian military airfield where the gas attack is believed to have originated

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-launches-missiles-syrian-base-after-chemical-weapons-attack-n743636?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

QuoteThe United States launched dozens of cruise missiles Thursday night at a Syrian airfield in response to what it believes was the Syrian government's use of banned chemical weapons blamed for having killed at least 100 people on Tuesday, U.S. military officials told NBC News.

Two U.S. warships in the Mediterranean Sea fired at least 50 Tomahawk missiles intended for a single target — Ash Sha'irat in Homs province in western Syria, the officials said. That's the airfield from which the United States believes the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fired the banned weapons.

There was no immediate word on casualties. U.S. officials told NBC News that people were not targeted and that aircraft and infrastructure at the site, including the runway, were hit.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Nikki Haley, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, have bluntly blamed Syria for the chemical weapons attack, whose victims included at least 25 children.

Tillerson told reporters on Thursday that "there is no doubt in our minds" that the Syrian regime was responsible for the attack. And in a combative speech at the U.N. Security Council on Wednesday, Haley warned: "When the United Nations consistently fails in its duty to act collectively, there are times in the life of states that we are compelled to take our own action."

NBC News reported Thursday that Defense Secretary James Mattis briefed President Donald Trump on U.S. military options, which included carrying out targeted strikes against those responsible for Tuesday's attack.

There was no immediate reaction from Russia, which Tillerson and Haley have accused of turning a blind eye to Syria's transgressions.

"Russia cannot escape responsibility for this," Haley said at the United Nations. "They chose to close their eyes to the barbarity. They defied the conscience of the world."

Thursday, Tillerson urged Russia to "consider carefully their continued support of the Assad regime."

 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2017, 08:40:29 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2017, 01:50:16 AM

I'm very skeptical that he will or can make any heel face turn on Assad, however he's so erratic I can't rule it out.


Well I was wrong. After a year of backing Assad, he turns on him as soon as he did something bad that he's been doing for five years.

I can't condemn a president for punishing someone for gassing civilians, but I don't really see how this is going to lead to a stable situation.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Fate on April 06, 2017, 08:41:36 PM

Why do we shrug our shoulders about the 500k+ who have died in the civil war and get all up in arms about sarin killing a handful of people? Sure, let's flush 70.5 million dollars in tomahawk missles down the drain when we're about to massively gut the budget of the state department. Meh...
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on April 06, 2017, 08:41:45 PM
I have ordered Papa John's.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 06, 2017, 08:50:06 PM
I wonder how many Russians got killed.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on April 06, 2017, 08:52:43 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 06, 2017, 08:50:06 PM
I wonder how many Russians got killed.

DG will know
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: katmai on April 06, 2017, 08:54:36 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 06, 2017, 08:41:45 PM
I have ordered Papa John's.
NOW I HAVE A BONER.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on April 06, 2017, 08:55:35 PM
Quote from: katmai on April 06, 2017, 08:54:36 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 06, 2017, 08:41:45 PM
I have ordered Papa John's.
NOW I HAVE A BONER.

EXTRA GARLIC BUTTER FOR MY HISPANIC FRIEND! 5 TUBS!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: katmai on April 06, 2017, 08:58:07 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 06, 2017, 08:55:35 PM
Quote from: katmai on April 06, 2017, 08:54:36 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 06, 2017, 08:41:45 PM
I have ordered Papa John's.
NOW I HAVE A BONER.

EXTRA GARLIC BUTTER FOR MY HISPANIC FRIEND! 5 TUBS!
DON'T FORGET THE TOTS!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: FunkMonk on April 06, 2017, 08:59:41 PM
We're all going to die
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: dps on April 06, 2017, 09:21:05 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 06, 2017, 08:52:43 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 06, 2017, 08:50:06 PM
I wonder how many Russians got killed.

DG will know

Unless he was one of them.  Has he posted since the air strike?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on April 06, 2017, 09:26:44 PM
I wonder if Trump remembers he sent an artillery battery to Syria last month.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 06, 2017, 09:45:53 PM
Quote from: Fate on April 06, 2017, 08:41:36 PM

Why do we shrug our shoulders about the 500k+ who have died in the civil war and get all up in arms about sarin killing a handful of people? Sure, let's flush 70.5 million dollars in tomahawk missles down the drain when we're about to massively gut the budget of the state department. Meh...

It's nice when people comply with treaties they've signed.

No preamble, no lead up...I guess Donald figured the line had already been drawn in the sand.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 06, 2017, 09:48:06 PM
Big difference between conventional arms and weapons of mass destruction.  But people already know that, and just like to be difficult.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on April 06, 2017, 10:33:37 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 06, 2017, 08:41:45 PM
I have ordered Papa John's.

I was caught totally off-guard.  Heard the news as I was driving to my buddy's house to sample beers from his brewery.  We had finger foods on hand but zero time to order pizza and watch the new war on TV :angry:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on April 06, 2017, 10:34:43 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 06, 2017, 09:48:06 PM
Big difference between conventional arms and weapons of mass destruction.  But people already know that, and just like to be difficult.

So do you support the action by our Cheetoh-faced dumbass president, or do you oppose them?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on April 06, 2017, 10:37:29 PM
Finally that "red line" is enforced.  :sleep:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on April 06, 2017, 10:41:06 PM
Sad but true.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on April 06, 2017, 10:47:55 PM
Question for the forum: Would Obama have done the same thing as Trump in reaction to Assad's chemical attack?  I say: yes.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 06, 2017, 10:49:01 PM
Quote from: derspiess on April 06, 2017, 10:34:43 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 06, 2017, 09:48:06 PM
Big difference between conventional arms and weapons of mass destruction.  But people already know that, and just like to be difficult.

So do you support the action by our Cheetoh-faced dumbass president, or do you oppose them?

I have always supported punitive measures against nations that use chemical weapons.  Should have been done years ago.  But tonight looks good on TV, which is the important part.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 06, 2017, 10:51:21 PM
Quote from: derspiess on April 06, 2017, 10:47:55 PM
Question for the form: Would Obama have done the same thing as Trump in reaction to Assad's chemical attack?  I say: yes.

Stop being a dick.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on April 06, 2017, 10:51:44 PM
Interesting.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 06, 2017, 10:53:07 PM
Go get your hand caught in the food disposal, asshole.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on April 06, 2017, 10:54:34 PM
Seedy's finally on the Trump Train!  :lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 06, 2017, 11:02:02 PM
Why would you "say yes" when asking "Would Obama have done the same thing as Trump in reaction to Assad's chemical attack?", when you already know the answer was "No' in 2013?  Survey says: derniggerhater is being a dick!

Which is why you need to have a crockpot full of all your favorite fat black wifefucking cock spill all over your face.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on April 06, 2017, 11:06:35 PM
Well, I would think that at the second (ish) occurrence, Obama would have said "enough" and would have taken action as Trump did.  But I do get a kick out of you putting Trump over Obama in this case. 

As far as I'm concerned, we should stay the hell out, whomever the prez may be.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on April 07, 2017, 12:41:04 AM
I did NOT expect to be waking up to the prelude of WW3. What the fuck
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on April 07, 2017, 01:09:47 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on April 06, 2017, 08:59:41 PM
We're all going to die

Garlic breath won't kill you. But it won't exactly make you stronger either.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 07, 2017, 01:18:01 AM
My take.

I'm for bombing people who use chemical weapons on civilians.

However, this a stunning about face for Trump who campaigned on supporting Assad in the Civil War for more than a year.

Assad has committed countless atrocities over the last five years, but a flashy one while Trump is president is all that's needed to change his mind. Why? Why now, and not before? Probably because he's an easily influenced rube who listens to the last person he spoke to. The pathological need to look tough is also a factor. He's meeting Xi soon after all and wants to threaten unilateral action against North Korea.

Does Trump and his adminsitration have any plan on how to manage the fall out in Syria? Any plan on how to end this long drawn out war. It doesn't seem so.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on April 07, 2017, 01:37:25 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 07, 2017, 01:18:01 AM
My take.

I'm for bombing people who use chemical weapons on civilians.

However, this a stunning about face for Trump who campaigned on supporting Assad in the Civil War for more than a year.

Assad has committed countless atrocities over the last five years, but a flashy one while Trump is president is all that's needed to change his mind. Why? Why now, and not before? Probably because he's an easily influenced rube who listens to the last person he spoke to. The pathological need to look tough is also a factor. He's meeting Xi soon after all and wants to threaten unilateral action against North Korea.

Does Trump and his adminsitration have any plan on how to manage the fall out in Syria? Any plan on how to end this long drawn out war. It doesn't seem so.

When was the last time an American administration had a more elaborate plan than 1. Bomb 2. ?????? 3. Democracy! , huh?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on April 07, 2017, 01:43:23 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 07, 2017, 01:37:25 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 07, 2017, 01:18:01 AM
My take.

I'm for bombing people who use chemical weapons on civilians.

However, this a stunning about face for Trump who campaigned on supporting Assad in the Civil War for more than a year.

Assad has committed countless atrocities over the last five years, but a flashy one while Trump is president is all that's needed to change his mind. Why? Why now, and not before? Probably because he's an easily influenced rube who listens to the last person he spoke to. The pathological need to look tough is also a factor. He's meeting Xi soon after all and wants to threaten unilateral action against North Korea.

Does Trump and his adminsitration have any plan on how to manage the fall out in Syria? Any plan on how to end this long drawn out war. It doesn't seem so.

When was the last time an American administration had a more elaborate plan than 1. Bomb 2. ?????? 3. Democracy! , huh?

I don't think most American administrations have thought that.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on April 07, 2017, 01:50:02 AM
I really like how even on this the Trump administration can't stick to one story. Pentagon has that they had several conversations with Russia in advance about this. Our new secretary of state says no conversations have been had with Russia before or after regarding the strike...
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on April 07, 2017, 02:31:58 AM
Quote from: garbon on April 07, 2017, 01:50:02 AM
I really like how even on this the Trump administration can't stick to one story. Pentagon has that they had several conversations with Russia in advance about this. Our new secretary of state says no conversations have been had with Russia before or after regarding the strike...

I really hope they had the common sense to warn the Russians before they showered one of the airfields used by them.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 07, 2017, 05:56:02 AM
Quote from: derspiess on April 06, 2017, 11:06:35 PM
Well, I would think that at the second (ish) occurrence, Obama would have said "enough" and would have taken action as Trump did.  But I do get a kick out of you putting Trump over Obama in this case. 

It is not a matter of putting one over another; you even have to ask, after all these years and after all these deaths what exactly did last night prove, other than Donald needed to waive his dick around in front of Xi.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: grumbler on April 07, 2017, 06:14:56 AM
Quote from: derspiess on April 06, 2017, 12:08:31 PM
No shit.  It was the previous guy's fault.

And Haig's.

Trump already opened that envelope.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: frunk on April 07, 2017, 08:22:02 AM
Quote from: grumbler on April 07, 2017, 06:14:56 AM

Trump already opened that envelope.

I'll be thrilled when I see three brand new envelopes on Trump's desk.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on April 07, 2017, 09:28:31 AM
Quote from: derspiess on April 06, 2017, 10:47:55 PM
Question for the forum: Would Obama have done the same thing as Trump in reaction to Assad's chemical attack?  I say: yes.

Yes. He was dropping bombs and stuff in Syria anyway. Hell he was all ready to go in before Kerry accidentally gave Russia and Assad an out.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on April 07, 2017, 09:42:54 AM
Eh, I think Trump basically listened to McMaster and Mattis and did what they said. Both are good dudes and neither is the raging warmonger that liberal press sometimes present upper level generals as being.

If you look at last night's strikes and are trying to figure out how they solve the Syrian war, in that context they make little sense. I'd go so far as to say if Trump pushes the thought that they somehow do that, then I'd say he's looking at the situation very stupidly.

There is no real play for the U.S. to fix Syria, and at the end of the day Assad winning that war is probably better than any of his opponents winning that war, because they're all crazy jihadists. But the U.S. has held the position for decades that we don't tolerate the use of chemical/biological/nuclear weapons, and various international bodies and treaties have also basically tried to establish that as an international norm. Part of why Clinton bombed Iraq during his Presidency was over stuff just like this (albeit in Saddam's case it was non-compliance with a chemical weapons disarmament programme.)

By striking a limited amount of Syrian assets we basically have established that we're willing to impose costs on Assad if he chooses to continue using chemical weapons. To be quite honest, that's the position Obama should have taken. I think Obama's core instinct that deep involvement, in terms of trying to pick winners and losers, commit ground troops and etc in Syria is a huge mistake was 100% correct, Obama did good to keep us from getting into that war anymore than we did. But I'd argue Obama was, in a sense, right to draw the famed 'red line', because he's basically just enforcing international norms the U.S. had been behind for decades. Where Obama went wrong is he wasn't willing to take action to punish Assad for violating those norms, I think Obama was basically afraid of where it might lead. Escalation with Russia, potentially drawing us into a ground conflict and etc. I don't think that was ever the required outcome, to be frank I think if Obama had done something like this there's a decent chance it'd play out much as it has: Russia would bitch and moan, Assad would be upset, but it probably doesn't long term change anything between America/Russia/Assad. It doesn't make us any more likely to invade Syria, it doesn't make Russia any more likely to say, start shooting our planes down (or trying to); particularly by giving a warning before the strike I think we basically set the tone "this is a fine for bad behavior", if we were trying to start a full war with any of the involved parties we could've done it a lot differently.

Was Trump trying to send a message to Xi? Maybe. Was Trump trying to do something to curry good ratings/press coverage? Maybe. But I think at the end of the day his response was limited and largely in line with U.S. foreign policy norms, at least on stuff like this Obama was a deviation. Obama was basically the lone guy in his administration that was 100% opposed to doing stuff like this, most of them had advocated limited actions like this. Hillary Clinton said in her first post-election interview we should be willing to bomb Assad's air force. In a sense Obama was so unwilling to risk even angering Russia and so paranoid that he'd end up in a George W. Bush style Iraq War that he was overly cautious, and he of course was the only one in his administration with a vote.

In a way you can see Russia was playing this out with the expectation the Obama Doctrine was a new norm for U.S. behavior. Syria does this chemical attack, then denies it. Russia supports this denial, says "we nee to do an investigation", then the U.S. attacks Syria basically ignoring this line of thought. Russia gets mad because they were hoping we'd behave like we did with Obama at the helm. It's a weird situation because Obama is a smart dude and Trump is an imbecile, and "deep engagement" in Syria is almost certainly a mistake; but in the specifics I think Trump's actions are superior than Obama's. Whether or not it was ultimately a mistake will come down to how we follow up. If we view it as the prelude to more, and Trump takes it too far it'll be really bad. If Trump is able to correctly view it as what it is: a slap on the wrist that basically should be intended solely to curtail the use of chemical weapons, then I think we'll be okay. Likewise if he uses chemical weapons again, a good response would be to blow up a little more of their air force. The risk is we do something crazy in response to more provocations, but if we can establish the norm of: use chemical weapons, lose military assets you need for the war; I think we'll be fine.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 07, 2017, 09:43:31 AM
Quote from: frunk on April 07, 2017, 08:22:02 AM
Quote from: grumbler on April 07, 2017, 06:14:56 AM

Trump already opened that envelope.

I'll be thrilled when I see three brand new envelopes on Trump's desk.

Subpoenas usally don't come in envelopes.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on April 07, 2017, 10:01:56 AM
The big thing to keep in mind about Trump is just that he literally knows about as much about most issues facing the Presidency as your dad who spends 4-5 hours a night screaming at Fox News. He's also incredibly lazy. This means that in many respects his advisers are more important in his Presidency than any we've seen in awhile, Bush had a little bit of this going on but not nearly to this degree.

The most significant development I see here is for whatever reason in the battle between some of the non-crazies he put in the admin (Mattis & McMaster) and Bannon, Bannon appears to have lost, because enforcing norms on chemical weapons use would be a "globalist" action. Where we should have some degree of concern, is in my mind the reason Trump did this was probably 90% he's a little boy over-awed by the big time military resumes of Mattis & McMaster when it comes to something in their bailiwick. It worked out this time, but a President being uncritical of military advice is how we got into some bad situations in the past (although I think most modern generals, raised on the bread and butter story of how fucked up Vietnam was, are way less bellicose than the brass of the 50s/60s); while I disagreed with Obama's decision to do nothing on chemical weapons use by Assad I liked that we had a President smart enough to look at the situation and make his own decision. The unfortunate thing with Trump is he really doesn't have those capacities.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on April 07, 2017, 10:23:05 AM
Yep.

I am not unhappy with the basic idea (the execution seems pretty fucked up), but I suspect it was not arrived at for anything like the right reasons.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on April 07, 2017, 10:35:04 AM
Yeah, the big fear with the Trump administration is there is no coherent process that we've seen for making decisions. It literally looks like there's a combination of:

1. Who does Trump like that day? He'll take their advice. Early on he liked Bannon a lot, now it seems less so. He was keeping Mattis at arm's length early, but now seems to be moving Mattis into the inner circle. Unfortunately it seems his reasons for these shifts are mercurial/personal based and thus could change with his changing mood.

2. Who was the last person Trump spoke to? There's worrying evidence Trump is highly susceptible to just going along with the last thing he heard, which means the range of potential choices is pretty scary depending on who that last person is.

3. What does he think is good for Trump. The answer to this is ever-shifting as well. Trump has decent political instincts obviously or he wouldn't have won the Republican primary and the Presidency, but his instincts in this regard have lead to struggles in his Presidency primarily because he now has to do more than just decide what things to say to fire up his supporters, he has to actually take actions and he quickly has found he has no idea what to do for most of this stuff. So he's in the weird position of having to decide which person who sort of knows what they're talking about to go with, and he just has limited capacities to do that well.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on April 07, 2017, 10:40:12 AM
Ezra Kelin over at Vox said it best (I agree with him on Obama and Trump here):

QuoteObama's policy on Syria was perpetually paralyzed by fear of escalation. Trump's policy on Syria is volatile precisely because he doesn't seem to have thought through questions of escalation. This is a foreign policy based on intuition and emotion, and there is danger in that.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 07, 2017, 11:23:04 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on April 07, 2017, 10:35:04 AM
Trump has decent political instincts obviously or he wouldn't have won the Republican primary and the Presidency

He doesn't have a clue about how to reach people outside his base of hillbillies and blue collar yahoos.

Wonder how this shambolic PR missile strike will play out.  Will he try to pretend he didn't pre-arrange it with Poutine?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: FunkMonk on April 07, 2017, 02:20:31 PM
AFP and Reuters are reporting Syrian aircraft launching missions from the airbase bombed yesterday.

Lol Donald wow
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: FunkMonk on April 07, 2017, 02:22:45 PM
Missile strike, which did little to nothing, will bring Donald the praise and admiration of DC and CNN talking heads. Sad!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: alfred russel on April 07, 2017, 02:34:28 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on April 07, 2017, 02:20:31 PM
AFP and Reuters are reporting Syrian aircraft launching missions from the airbase bombed yesterday.

Lol Donald wow

It seems the Russians haven't lost their WWII institutional knowledge of how to quickly get bombed airfields operational.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: viper37 on April 07, 2017, 02:41:08 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on April 07, 2017, 10:35:04 AM
Early on he liked Bannon a lot, now it seems less so.
He was apparently pissed off at "President Bannon" jokes ;)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on April 07, 2017, 03:16:36 PM
Sorry if it's already been said, but President Trump should make Assad pay for the cruise missiles.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: HVC on April 07, 2017, 03:23:04 PM
Quote from: viper37 on April 07, 2017, 02:41:08 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on April 07, 2017, 10:35:04 AM
Early on he liked Bannon a lot, now it seems less so.
He was apparently pissed off at "President Bannon" jokes ;)

Yeah, all the political bickering and haggling, and its SNL that can make the president change his mind :D
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on April 07, 2017, 03:23:48 PM
Quote from: derspiess on April 07, 2017, 03:16:36 PM
Sorry if it's already been said, but President Trump should make Assad pay for the cruise missiles.

Damn. Well done Spicey :lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Jacob on April 07, 2017, 03:49:16 PM
This just in:

Quote from: ReutersJUST IN: Syrian warplanes take off from air base hit by U.S., carry out strikes in Homs countryside - Syrian observatory for human rights

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/850425431899680768

So... $80M to disable an airbase for less than 24 hours? Seems a little wasteful.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on April 07, 2017, 04:25:00 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 07, 2017, 03:49:16 PM
This just in:

Quote from: ReutersJUST IN: Syrian warplanes take off from air base hit by U.S., carry out strikes in Homs countryside - Syrian observatory for human rights

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/850425431899680768

So... $80M to disable an airbase for less than 24 hours? Seems a little wasteful.

Assad is going to be pissed when he gets the bill.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 07, 2017, 04:33:17 PM
So I wonder if some Navy dudes somewhere got an order to target exactly 600 meters north of a Syrian airfield.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Jacob on April 07, 2017, 05:15:31 PM
This is a pretty good breakdown of what happened and the likely effect: https://www.balloon-juice.com/2017/04/07/the-strikes-against-al-shayrat-air-base-highly-detailed-security-theater-with-no-deterrent-effect/

QuoteAs night gave way to day we began to get greater clarity about exactly what happened with last night's missile strikes against al Shayrat Air Base in Syria. It was security theater with no deterrent effect.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on April 08, 2017, 12:52:59 PM
Eh, to defend the Pentagon here (this was almost certainly their plan, not Trump's), the goal was never to significantly impede Assad's operational capacities. This strike was literally intended as a fine, in that it destroyed things that cost Assad money, and it showed a willingness on our part to use military force in response to chemical weapons use. Do I think it had a deterrent effect? I'm not sure, and no one else is either. But I have reason to think it could. Firstly, in the grand scheme of things Assad doesn't need to use chemical weapons to achieve his goals, his reasons for going back to them don't seem verh good in the first place. Russia is really interested in seeing Assad win, and they and Iran are often footing the bill to replace equipment, since both of those countries realize Assad doesn't need chemical weapons to win, and that future use of them could lead to more equipment being destroyed this could absolutely be enough for them to basically tell Assad to knock it off. Secondly by basically ignoring the Russian/Syrian playbook on denying culpability and requesting investigations Trump has basically established that the sort of stuff that was perceived to work under Obama may not work under Trump.

I say perceived because I don't think Obama or his Admin ever believed Russian propaganda but I think Putin is deluded enough to think people outside of the RT crowd take his various fake news claims seriously.

The reality is as a first step to curtail chemical weapons use this makes a lot of sense. We won't say it publicly, but we really don't want to weaken Assad militarily. The simple reality is after defeating the FSA and much of al-Nusra, Assad has actually been turning a lot of attention lately to ISIS and we aren't super interested in stopping that. If we wanted to disable this base we'd have likely used stealth bombers, the bombs they drop are large enough to cause impact cratering in runways which would have rendered the base unusable for a time. This is a speeding ticket, not a Rodney King beat down.

If chemical attacks happen again we may very well have to engage in airstrikes, but that opens lots of cans of worms. Right now we have free use of Syrian airspace, but if we're bombing Assad he will likely start trying to shoot our planes down. That means we would likely need to start targeting his AA capacity with cruise missile strikes to soften up the skies for aeria bombardment. That action risks bringing us into outright conflict with Russia, and again IF successful we end up with a Syria where the regime is too weak to finish off the jihadists but there is no moderate opposition to move in and fill the void.

FWIW, given the lack of need for them, I think Assad will probably just stop using chemical weapons. My suspicion is the point when we could see a major clash in Syria is when Assad finishes mopping up the rebels/ISIS and the only enemy left is our Kurdish allies to the north. Assad won't tolerate the indefinitely and it's questionable what our position will be when he starte going after them.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Alcibiades on April 09, 2017, 12:28:25 PM
I agree with most of your assessments in this thread OVB, very well reasoned.   :)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on April 13, 2017, 01:12:01 AM
Apparently the UK's UN representative accused Russia of misusing their SC veto, and Russia's rep went on a little tirade that included lines like "look at me when I am talking to you!", and "don't you dare further insult Russia!".  :D
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on April 13, 2017, 03:19:03 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on April 13, 2017, 01:12:01 AM
Apparently the UK's UN representative accused Russia of misusing their SC veto, and Russia's rep went on a little tirade that included lines like "look at me when I am talking to you!", and "don't you dare further insult Russia!".  :D

I am increasingly having the worry that the UK will be way too happy to rile up international tensions to keep their Brexit negotiations out of the news. Especially with a gambling buffoon like Boris at the helm.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on April 13, 2017, 04:37:15 AM
Meh.  We should have ordered the 21 Zebra on Assad.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 13, 2017, 06:56:19 PM
So, war with North Korea, Syria and maybe Russia too?

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/04/report-white-house-considers-ground-troops-in-syria.html?mid=facebook_nymag

QuoteReport: White House Mulls Sending Thousands of U.S. Ground Troops Into Syria

By  Eric Levitz 

Ever since the United States put the fate of the world in the hands of an ill-tempered reality star, people have sought comfort in the thought that Donald Trump might outsource his administration's most important decisions to the "adults" in the room.

This was a reasonable hope. But it was also one that elided a troubling fact: Nearly all the "adults" in the Trump administration are men who make war for a living.

On Thursday, one week after Trump ordered a missile strike against the Assad regime, the United States hit Afghanistan with the largest non-nuclear bomb ever deployed. When the commander-in-chief was asked to explain the rationale for this unprecedented use of force, he replied, "What I do is I authorize my military."

"So, we have given them total authorization," Trump continued.

Ever since the United States put the fate of the world in the hands of an ill-tempered reality star, people have sought comfort in the thought that Donald Trump might outsource his administration's most important decisions to the "adults" in the room.

This was a reasonable hope. But it was also one that elided a troubling fact: Nearly all the "adults" in the Trump administration are men who make war for a living.

On Thursday, one week after Trump ordered a missile strike against the Assad regime, the United States hit Afghanistan with the largest non-nuclear bomb ever deployed. When the commander-in-chief was asked to explain the rationale for this unprecedented use of force, he replied, "What I do is I authorize my military."

"So, we have given them total authorization," Trump continued.

Our future is up to the generals. Here, according to Bloomberg's Eli Lake, is what the generals are up to:

Senior White House and administration officials tell me Trump's national security adviser, General H.R. McMaster, has been quietly pressing his colleagues to question the underlying assumptions of a draft war plan against the Islamic State that would maintain only a light U.S. ground troop presence in Syria. McMaster's critics inside the administration say he wants to send tens of thousands of ground troops to the Euphrates River Valley. His supporters insist he is only trying to facilitate a better interagency process to develop Trump's new strategy to defeat the self-described caliphate that controls territory in Iraq and Syria.

...The White House and administration officials say Secretary of Defense James Mattis, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford and General Joseph Votel, who is in charge of U.S. Central Command, oppose sending more conventional forces into Syria. Meanwhile, White House senior strategist Stephen Bannon has derided McMaster to his colleagues as trying to start a new Iraq War, according to these sources ... White House and administration officials familiar with the current debate tell me there is no consensus on how many troops to send to Syria and Iraq. Two sources told me one plan would envision sending up to 50,000 troops.

"We're not going into Syria," Trump assured Fox Business earlier this week. But, according to Lake, the president has yet to hear from his advisors, who want to reach consensus around a plan to defeat ISIS before presenting it to the president. So, the adults may yet change his mind.

After all, what Trump does, is he authorizes his military.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 13, 2017, 06:59:55 PM
QuoteWhen the commander-in-chief was asked to explain the rationale for this unprecedented use of force, he replied, "What I do is I authorize my military."

Oh, he's got the taste for it now.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 13, 2017, 07:10:40 PM
He's trying to one-up Arnie's Mobile Strike commercials.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: FunkMonk on April 14, 2017, 10:10:34 AM
Question: Did they really ask Donald if they could use the GBU-43? I was under the impression the commander in Afghanistan was the guy who gave the go.

Did George W. have to give permission for all those Daisy Cutters we dropped in Afghanistan too?

I'm just unsure of the protocol regarding large conventional weapons.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on April 25, 2017, 10:32:49 PM
We have a new ally against ISIS.  :)

QuoteWild boars overrun Islamic State position, kill 3 militants

Email  Print  Reddit  Tweet  Share  Google  More
By JOHN BACON | USA Today (Tribune News Service) | Published: April 25, 2017

Three Islamic State militants setting up an ambush in a bitterly contested area of northern Iraq were killed by a herd of stampeding boars, local leaders say.


Sheikh Anwar al-Assi, a chief of the local Ubaid tribe and supervisor of anti-ISIS forces, told The Times of London the militants were hiding on the edge of a field about 50 miles southwest of Kirkuk when the boars overwhelmed them Sunday. Five other militants were injured, al-Assi said. He said the group was poised to attack a band of local tribesmen who had fled to nearby mountains since militants seized the town of Hawija three years ago.

But I am also skeptical now, based on the source (and the author's name, makes it feel the story is 25 days late). :hmm:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on April 25, 2017, 10:35:59 PM
Oh come now. That is Onion material.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 25, 2017, 10:44:23 PM
Don't fuck with the SEC.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 26, 2017, 12:51:30 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on April 25, 2017, 10:32:49 PM
We have a new ally against ISIS.  :)

QuoteWild boars overrun Islamic State position, kill 3 militants

Email  Print  Reddit  Tweet  Share  Google  More
By JOHN BACON | USA Today (Tribune News Service) | Published: April 25, 2017

Three Islamic State militants setting up an ambush in a bitterly contested area of northern Iraq were killed by a herd of stampeding boars, local leaders say.


Sheikh Anwar al-Assi, a chief of the local Ubaid tribe and supervisor of anti-ISIS forces, told The Times of London the militants were hiding on the edge of a field about 50 miles southwest of Kirkuk when the boars overwhelmed them Sunday. Five other militants were injured, al-Assi said. He said the group was poised to attack a band of local tribesmen who had fled to nearby mountains since militants seized the town of Hawija three years ago.

But I am also skeptical now, based on the source (and the author's name, makes it feel the story is 25 days late). :hmm:

now that would be divine retribution... lol
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: HVC on April 26, 2017, 02:19:04 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 25, 2017, 10:35:59 PM
Oh come now. That is Onion material.

You'd think the pigs would side against the western nations, what with our love of their delicious flesh.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on April 26, 2017, 04:40:55 PM
Quote from: HVC on April 26, 2017, 02:19:04 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 25, 2017, 10:35:59 PM
Oh come now. That is Onion material.

You'd think the pigs would side against the western nations, what with our love of their delicious flesh.

Would you rather live and end up eaten or never live at all?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 27, 2017, 06:29:17 PM
Goofy ass Russians.

QuoteRussian navy intelligence ship sinks after collision with freighter off Turkish coast (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russian-navy-intelligence-ship-sinks-after-collision-with-freighter-off-turkish-coast/2017/04/27/5854b062-2b45-11e7-be51-b3fc6ff7faee_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_russiaship-1210pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory)

ISTANBUL — A Russian naval intelligence ship sank Thursday after colliding with a merchant freighter in foggy conditions on the Black Sea near Istanbul, the Turkish coast guard said. All 78 crew members on the Russian vessel were rescued.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 19, 2017, 09:23:34 AM
Woah, now that's escalation!

http://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-launches-missile-strike-into-syria-for-tehran-attacks/
QuoteIran launches missile strike into Syria in response to Tehran attacksIsraeli sources say Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missiles used, in regime's first combat launch since the Iran-Iraq conflict 30 years ago

BY AP AND TIMES OF ISRAEL STAFF

June 18, 2017, 11:03 pm 12

EHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran's Revolutionary Guard said Sunday it launched missiles into eastern Syria targeting Islamic State militants in response to a June 7 attack on Iran's parliament and a shrine in Tehran. The hardline paramilitary force also warned that it would similarly retaliate against anyone else carrying out attacks in Iran.

The launch of surface-to-surface medium range missiles into Syria's Deir el-Zour province comes as Islamic State militants fleeing a US-led coalition onslaught increasingly try to fortify their positions there.


Israel's Channel 10, quoting an Israeli intelligence source, said the missiles were Iranian Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missiles, with a range of 1,200 kilometers (800 miles).

Sunday's assault marked an extremely rare direct attack from the Islamic Republic amid its support for embattled Syrian President Bashar Assad. Iran's Revolutionary Guard, a hard-line paramilitary force, has seen advisers and fighters killed in the conflict.

Media reports said this marked the first time Iran had fired missiles as an act of war since the end of the Iran-Iraq war in 1988.

Activists in Syria said they had no immediate information on damage or casualties from the strikes, launched from Iran's Kurdistan and Kermanshah provinces. Social media was awash in shaky mobile phone footage from those areas, allegedly showing the missiles rise in an orange glow before heading toward their targets.

A Guard statement carried on its website said many "terrorists" were killed and their weapons had been destroyed in the strike.

The Guard warned Islamic State militants and their "regional and international supporters" that similar retaliatory attacks would target them as well if another assault in Iran occurs.

Activists in Syria did not immediately have information about the Iranian-claimed strikes. Deir el-Zour is home to both Islamic State militants and civilians.

Five Islamic State-linked attackers stormed Iran's parliament and a shrine to revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini on June 7, killing at least 17 people and wounding more than 50.

That attack marked the first to hit Iran, shocking its residents who believed the chaos engulfing the rest of the Middle East would not find them in the Shiite-majority nation.

Iran has described the attackers as being "long affiliated with the Wahhabi," an ultraconservative form of Sunni Islam practiced in Saudi Arabia. However, it stopped short of directly blaming the kingdom for the attack, though many in the country expressed suspicion Iran's regional rival had a hand in the attack.

The attack also came as emboldened Sunni Arab states — backed by US President Donald Trump — are hardening their stance against Iran.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 19, 2017, 05:52:06 PM
Good thing we have a steady hand at the tiller of our ship of state. Oh, wait....

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russia-threatens-to-treat-us-coalition-aircraft-as-targets-over-syria/2017/06/19/95e87428-54ca-11e7-9e18-968f6ad1e1d3_story.html?utm_term=.49815e872f02
Quote
U.S. risks further battles as it steps deeper into Syrian quagmire

By Louisa Loveluck and David Filipov
June 19 at 5:26 PM
BEIRUT — The United States is becoming more perilously drawn into Syria's fragmented war as it fights on increasingly congested battlefields surrounding Islamic State territory.

On Sunday, a U.S. fighter jet downed a Syrian warplane for the first time in the conflict. By Monday, a key ally of President Bashar al-Assad, Russia, had suspended a pact used to prevent crashes with the U.S.-led coalition in the skies over Syria and was threatening to target American jets.

Separately, Iran said that it had launched a barrage of missiles into Islamic State territory in eastern Syria. That assault marked Tehran's first official strike against the extremist group in Syria, and it signposted the reach of its military might against foes across the region.

The incident followed a series of U.S. airstrikes against Iran-backed forces advancing on partner forces in a strategically prized swath of land along the Iraqi border.

As the major powers on the opposite sides of Syria's war intensify operations against the Islamic State, the risks of an accidental conflagration appear to be growing by the day.

The United States intervened in Syria to roll back Islamic State forces from a self-declared caliphate that once stretched deep into Iraq. But the American role has unsettled Assad's allies, threatening confrontation with Russia and thrusting Iranian-backed militiamen in a race with a U.S.-favored rebel force to reach the Islamic State's eastern strongholds.

The U.S. military confirmed late Sunday night that a U.S. F/A-18 Super Hornet shot down a Syrian Su-22 fighter-bomber.

The confrontation took place near the onetime Islamic State stronghold of Tabqa, hours after Syrian government forces attacked U.S.-backed fighters, known as the Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF. It was the first time that the American military has shot down a Syrian warplane during the six-year conflict.

On Monday, Russia condemned that strike as a "flagrant violation of international law" and said its forces will treat U.S.-led coalition aircraft and drones as targets if they are operating in Syrian airspace west of the Euphrates River while Russian aviation is on combat missions.

Pavel Baev, who studies the Russian military at the Peace Research Institute Oslo, called the threat "mostly a bluff" but said that "calling it is risky because there are some nervous fingers on many buttons."

In a statement Monday, the SDF warned that it would retaliate in the face of further aggression from pro-Assad forces, raising the possibility that the United States could be forced to deviate further from its stated policy in Syria, which involves targeting Islamic State militants only.

The U.S.-backed military alliance is making its way through the outskirts of the Islamic State's stronghold of Raqqa, backed by U.S.-led coalition airstrikes. The alliance is dominated by Kurdish forces but also includes Arab forces.

If it again comes under attack by pro-Assad forces, Washington may be forced to defend the coalition at the risk of sparking a tinderbox of tensions with Iranian and Syrian troops in the northern province.

"The only actions that we have taken against pro-regime forces in Syria — and there have been two specific incidents — have been in self-defense. And we've communicated that clearly," said Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

But Monday, the Russian Defense Ministry said it was suspending the communication channel through which such messages had been shared in order to minimize the risk of in-flight incidents between Russian and U.S.-led coalition aircraft operating over Syria.

Dunford said the two sides discussed the matter as recently as Monday morning but that further talks are required.

"We work very hard on deconfliction. We've spent the last eight months on deconfliction," Dunford told reporters at the National Press Club. "It's going to require some military and diplomatic efforts in the next hours to restore deconfliction."

Col. Ryan Dillon, a spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition, said that "appropriate platforms" had been dispatched to help ensure operations would continue against the Islamic State, an apparent reference to U.S. aircraft designed to intercept enemy jets.

"Engaging in a game of chicken is not what the military on both sides would enjoy, but they are just instruments of politics, which is not anywhere close to rational at this moment, neither in Moscow, nor in D.C.," Baev said.

In Moscow, officials said that Sunday's shoot-down was intended as a message aimed squarely at Russia.

Frants Klintsevich, deputy head of the defense and security committee of the Russian upper house of parliament, called the incident "an aggression and a provocation."

"It looks like Donald Trump's United States is a source of a brand-new danger both in the Middle East and the world at large," Klintsevich wrote on his Facebook page.

But some analysts said Sunday's strike was an indication of the growing willingness on the part of Assad's forces to confront the U.S.-led coalition as it jostles to push Islamic State militants out of eastern Syria.

That effort has been bolstered by the arrival of thousands of Shiite militiamen who had fought in a campaign across the border in Iraq to capture the city of Mosul from Islamic State militants.

"The wild card here is the logic of an Assad regime which has decided that it no longer wants to be constrained to a Western Syria-based statelet," said Nicholas A. Heras, a fellow at the Washington-based Center for a New American Security.

That shift has been driven by an assessment that the Trump administration could use the territory its forces capture as a bargaining chip with which to push Assad into a political transition or Syria into a decentralized political system, Heras added.

"This is now an existential issue for them," he said.

Filipov reported from Moscow. Thomas Gibbons-Neff in Washington and Kareem Fahim in Istanbul contributed to this report.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 19, 2017, 06:02:55 PM
Getting into a shooting war with Russia would make a lot of Donald's problems go away.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on June 19, 2017, 06:15:26 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 19, 2017, 06:02:55 PM
Getting into a shooting war with Russia would make a lot of Donald's problems go away.
It would solve all of our problems, for good.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 19, 2017, 06:32:29 PM
Yes, nothing like superpower brinksmanship with a President that--as you guys had mentioned before--always, always, always raises at poker.


"You've got 20."
"Hit me."
"You've got 21."
"Hit me."
"That's 30."
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on June 19, 2017, 06:43:08 PM
Seedy is right.  We are all going to die.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on June 20, 2017, 09:59:51 AM
This business will get out of control.  It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 20, 2017, 10:30:10 AM
Assad is shit stirring - the Russians have to bluster about it for face but it's likely being handled behind the scenes.  The official Russian response said that aircraft flying west of the Euphrates would "be tracked . . . as aeriel targets" but stopped short of saying they would be fired upon. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Maximus on June 20, 2017, 11:41:47 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 19, 2017, 06:32:29 PM
Yes, nothing like superpower brinksmanship with a President that--as you guys had mentioned before--always, always, always raises at poker.


"You've got 20."
"Hit me."
"You've got 21."
"Hit me."
"That's 30."
I don't think that's poker, but maybe it's just the autism talking.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on June 20, 2017, 11:48:44 AM
Always bet on black.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 20, 2017, 12:01:30 PM
Quote from: Maximus on June 20, 2017, 11:41:47 AM
I don't think that's poker, but maybe it's just the autism talking.

Maryland hold 'em.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Solmyr on June 20, 2017, 03:01:33 PM
Quote from: Berkut on June 20, 2017, 11:48:44 AM
Always bet on black.

Obama isn't President anymore. :(
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 20, 2017, 03:51:06 PM
Quote from: Maximus on June 20, 2017, 11:41:47 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 19, 2017, 06:32:29 PM
Yes, nothing like superpower brinksmanship with a President that--as you guys had mentioned before--always, always, always raises at poker.


"You've got 20."
"Hit me."
"You've got 21."
"Hit me."
"That's 30."
I don't think that's poker, but maybe it's just the autism talking.

I'll just stick to one reference at a time for you.  I know you don't do more than one reference at a time very well.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 20, 2017, 03:52:30 PM
Quote from: Berkut on June 20, 2017, 11:48:44 AM
Always bet on black.

Now that's a third gaming reference.  Max just had an aneurysm.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: DGuller on June 20, 2017, 06:46:13 PM
Quote from: Maximus on June 20, 2017, 11:41:47 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 19, 2017, 06:32:29 PM
Yes, nothing like superpower brinksmanship with a President that--as you guys had mentioned before--always, always, always raises at poker.


"You've got 20."
"Hit me."
"You've got 21."
"Hit me."
"That's 30."
I don't think that's poker, but maybe it's just the autism talking.
If it's blackjack, I don't think you're allowed to hit on 21.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on June 20, 2017, 06:56:40 PM
Quote from: DGuller on June 20, 2017, 06:46:13 PM
Quote from: Maximus on June 20, 2017, 11:41:47 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 19, 2017, 06:32:29 PM
Yes, nothing like superpower brinksmanship with a President that--as you guys had mentioned before--always, always, always raises at poker.


"You've got 20."
"Hit me."
"You've got 21."
"Hit me."
"That's 30."
I don't think that's poker, but maybe it's just the autism talking.
If it's blackjack, I don't think you're allowed to hit on 21.

Nice deadpan.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on June 20, 2017, 06:58:41 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 20, 2017, 03:51:06 PM
Quote from: Maximus on June 20, 2017, 11:41:47 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 19, 2017, 06:32:29 PM
Yes, nothing like superpower brinksmanship with a President that--as you guys had mentioned before--always, always, always raises at poker.


"You've got 20."
"Hit me."
"You've got 21."
"Hit me."
"That's 30."
I don't think that's poker, but maybe it's just the autism talking.

I'll just stick to one reference at a time for you.  I know you don't do more than one reference at a time very well.

Ya'll were oblivious to my reference too.  :(
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 20, 2017, 07:02:35 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on June 20, 2017, 06:58:41 PM
Ya'll were oblivious to my reference too.  :(

You people give me a headache.  I think you do it on purpose.  Some of you, anyway.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on June 20, 2017, 07:31:27 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 20, 2017, 07:02:35 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on June 20, 2017, 06:58:41 PM
Ya'll were oblivious to my reference too.  :(

You people give me a headache.  I think you do it on purpose.  Some of you, anyway.

C'mon....US/Russian tensions...combat units acting nearby against each other in dangerous conditions...it was perfectly apropos.  <_<
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on June 21, 2017, 09:53:03 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 20, 2017, 03:52:30 PM
Quote from: Berkut on June 20, 2017, 11:48:44 AM
Always bet on black.

Now that's a third gaming reference.  Max just had an aneurysm.

Nah. That's a movie reference.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: viper37 on June 21, 2017, 10:19:49 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on June 20, 2017, 06:58:41 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 20, 2017, 03:51:06 PM
Quote from: Maximus on June 20, 2017, 11:41:47 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 19, 2017, 06:32:29 PM
Yes, nothing like superpower brinksmanship with a President that--as you guys had mentioned before--always, always, always raises at poker.


"You've got 20."
"Hit me."
"You've got 21."
"Hit me."
"That's 30."
I don't think that's poker, but maybe it's just the autism talking.

I'll just stick to one reference at a time for you.  I know you don't do more than one reference at a time very well.

Ya'll were oblivious to my reference too.  :(
I missed your post, sorry!

One of my favorite Clancy novel too :)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: alfred russel on June 21, 2017, 10:19:58 AM
Quote from: Berkut on June 20, 2017, 11:48:44 AM
Always bet on black.

That is what I thought, until I lost my life savings gambling at a swim meet.  :(
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 21, 2017, 01:33:23 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on June 21, 2017, 09:53:03 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 20, 2017, 03:52:30 PM
Quote from: Berkut on June 20, 2017, 11:48:44 AM
Always bet on black.

Now that's a third gaming reference.  Max just had an aneurysm.

Nah. That's a movie reference.

Shut up.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on June 21, 2017, 01:56:56 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on June 21, 2017, 10:19:58 AM
Quote from: Berkut on June 20, 2017, 11:48:44 AM
Always bet on black.

That is what I thought, until I lost my life savings gambling at a swim meet.  :(

That's a shame. I made a considerable sum betting on black at golf tournaments back in the day.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on June 25, 2017, 04:56:58 AM
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/24/middleeast/israel-syria-golan-heights-strike/index.html

QuoteIsrael strikes Syrian military near Golan Heights

(CNN)Israel launched strikes on Syrian military positions Saturday, close to the two countries' disputed border in the Golan Heights, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

The action was a response to what the IDF said were more than 10 projectiles fired into Israel from inside Syria. The IDF described the projectile fire as "errant," blaming it on internal fighting.

Israeli aircraft targeted three positions from which the projectiles were fired, the IDF said. The strikes included hits on two tanks belonging to the Syrian regime.

Syrian state-run news agency SANA reported several people were killed in the Israeli strikes. SANA said fighting in the area is between the Syrian regime and the al Nusra Front, a militant Syrian rebel group. No one is reported to have been wounded as a result of the projectile fire.

Israel lodged an official protest with the United Nations' Disengagement Observer Force, which monitors relations between Israel and Syria in the Golan Heights, over what it called an unacceptable breach of Israeli sovereignty.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on June 26, 2017, 04:09:17 PM


Quote
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21724036-war-may-bring-end-christian-minoritys-century-long-story (http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21724036-war-may-bring-end-christian-minoritys-century-long-story)

Reverse diaspora
Syria's Armenians are fleeing to their ancestral homeland

The war may bring an end to a Christian minority's century-long story
Europe Jun 26th 2017 | YEREVAN

WHEN war broke out in Syria in 2011, some of the wealthier families from the country's Christian Armenian minority decamped to Yerevan, the Armenian capital, where they rented luxury flats on the city's Northern Avenue. It felt, some would later say, as though they were on holiday. The government allotted them space in a local school, where Syrian teachers who had fled as refugees continued to instruct their children using the Syrian curriculum. It took some time for it to dawn on them that they might never go home.

Syria's six-year-old civil war has forced more than 5m of its citizens to seek refuge outside their country. In 2015-16 hundreds of thousands trekked through the Balkans, seeking safety in Europe. But hardly any of Syria's Armenian minority took this route. Instead, many went to Armenia. With its own population shrunken by emigration (falling from 3.6m in 1991 to 3m today), Armenia was happy to welcome as many Syrian Armenians—most of them educated, middle class and entrepreneurial—as would come.
Latest updates

Before the war some 90,000 ethnic Armenians lived in Syria, two-thirds of them in Aleppo. Many were descended from ancestors who had fled their homeland in 1915, escaping systematic Ottoman massacres and ethnic cleansing. For most of them, the civil war has put an end to a century-long story. Hrair Aguilan, a 61-year-old businessman, invested his life savings in a furniture factory in Aleppo just before the war, only to see it destroyed. Now he is in Yerevan to stay. "It lasted a hundred years. It is finished," says Mr Aguilan. "There is no future for Christians in the Middle East."

No more than 30,000 Syrian Armenians are believed to remain in Syria. Many dispersed to Lebanon, Canada, Turkey, the Persian Gulf states and elsewhere. The rest, up to 30,000, went to what they regard as the motherland. (Some have since moved on to other countries.) The wealthy, who found it easy to move, came first. Others tried to wait out the war in Syria, fleeing only once their means were exhausted. They arrived in Armenia with nothing.

Vartan Oskanian, a former foreign minister of Armenia who was born in Aleppo, says many of the refugees have started small businesses. In Syria, members of the Armenian minority tended to be skilled professionals or artisans; they were known as jewellers, doctors, engineers and industrialists. Native Armenians are delighted by the restaurants opened by the newcomers, who have brought their much spicier cuisine to a country where food (and almost everything else) has long been influenced by the bland flavours of Russia.

Almost all of the refugees have ended up in Yerevan, apart from some 30 families from a farming area, who were resettled in Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-held territory that is disputed with Azerbaijan. Some young men who had fought in the Syrian army have volunteered to serve on the front lines of that conflict, but many more young Syrian Armenians hold off on asking for Armenian citizenship so that they do not have to do military service.

Vasken Yacoubian, who once ran a construction company in Damascus, now heads the Armenian branch of the Armenian General Benevolent Union (AGBU), a global charity. He says refugees are still arriving from Syria, if no longer in large numbers. A few have even gone back, especially those with property (if only to try to sell it). Some Syrian Armenians argue that they have a duty to return: their diaspora forms an important branch of Armenian civilisation, and must be preserved.

Yet Mr Oskanian says those who have returned to Syria see little future for the community there. In Syria, Armenians have staunchly backed the regime of Bashar al-Assad, which has protected them from persecution by Muslim extremists. But that government controls only a portion of Syria's territory, and Mr Assad's fate in any peace deal is uncertain. Meanwhile officials at Armenia's Ministry of the Diaspora, which was caught unprepared by the influx of Syrians, are taking no chances. They are making contingency plans in case a new conflict erupts in Lebanon, sending thousands of Lebanese Armenians their way.




Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: alfred russel on June 26, 2017, 04:39:01 PM
QuoteSyria's Armenians are fleeing to their ancestral homeland

When I first saw this, I thought, "so is it really a good idea for them to relocate to the eastern portions of the republic of turkey?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 26, 2017, 11:54:10 PM
QuoteSyria Will 'Pay a Heavy Price' for Another Chemical Attack, White House Says
By MICHAEL D. SHEAR, HELENE COOPER and ERIC SCHMITT
The Failing New York Times
JUNE 26, 2017

WASHINGTON — The White House said late Monday that President Bashar al-Assad of Syria appeared to be preparing another chemical weapons attack, and warned that he would "pay a heavy price" if one took place.

Several military officials were caught off guard by the statement from President Trump's press secretary, but it was unclear how closely held the intelligence regarding a potential chemical attack was.

In the statement, the White House said that Mr. Assad's preparations appeared similar to the ones Western intelligence officials believe the Syrian government made before a chemical attack in April that killed dozens of Syrians, including children.

"As we have previously stated, the United States is in Syria to eliminate the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria," the statement said. "If, however, Mr. Assad conducts another mass murder attack using chemical weapons, he and his military will pay a heavy price."

While the White House's motivation in releasing the highly unusual statement is uncertain, it is possible that Mr. Trump or his advisers decided a public warning to Mr. Assad might deter another chemical strike.

Any intelligence gathered by the United States or its allies — notably Israel, which keeps a robust watch on unconventional weapons in the Middle East — would by nature be classified. But any American president has absolute power to declassify anything he chooses to release.

Brian Hale, a spokesman for the director of national intelligence, referred questions to the White House. Marc Raimondi, a spokesman for the White House's National Security Council, said, "We are letting the statement speak for itself."

Nikki R. Haley, the American ambassador to the United Nations, made clear that the United States was taking the latest threat seriously. "Any further attacks done to the people of Syria will be blamed on Assad, but also on Russia & Iran who support him killing his own people," she tweeted late Monday.

Russia and Iran are both allied with the Assad government. Last week, after the United States downed a Syrian warplane that had dropped bombs near American-supported fighters battling the Islamic State, Russia's Defense Ministry threatened to target any aircraft flown by the United States or its allies west of the Euphrates River valley.

Such a threat can cause an unintended showdown as competing forces converge on ungoverned areas of Syria. The collision has effectively created a war within a war.

Daryl G. Kimball, the executive director of the Arms Control Association, said that he had not heard of Syrian moves toward more chemical attacks, but that he suspected intelligence reports had prompted the statement. Rocket attacks using sarin gas, as in the April strikes, require considerable preparation that American intelligence might well have picked up, he said.

Mr. Kimball added that he did not recall such a precise, pre-emptive public warning against a foreign government regarding banned weapons "in at least the last 20 years." More often, such matters are handled in private diplomatic or intelligence communications, he said.

Monday's message appeared designed to set the stage for another possible military strike. After Mr. Assad allegedly used chemical weapons in April, the American military fired 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles at the air base his government had used to launch the attack.

The use of chemical weapons by the Syrian government has long been part of the clash between Mr. Assad and the United States.

In 2013, President Barack Obama's intelligence agencies concluded with "high confidence" that Mr. Assad had carried out a devastating chemical attack that killed hundreds of Syrians, despite having been warned by Mr. Obama against crossing a "red line" by using chemical weapons.

But Mr. Obama stopped just short of ordering a military strike, instead opting to work with the Russian government to identify and destroy Mr. Assad's cache of chemical weapons. Critics argued that the president's failure to enforce his own "red line" had emboldened Mr. Assad.

They also warned that all of the chemical weapons could not be found and destroyed. Within two months of Mr. Trump's taking office, images of another chemical attack spurred him to take the action that Mr. Obama had rejected.

This outer borough mouthbreathing monkey is going to get us in a shooting war with Russia and Iran, if only because it's the opposite of Obama's Syria policy.   :lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: 11B4V on June 27, 2017, 03:18:21 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 26, 2017, 11:54:10 PM
QuoteSyria Will 'Pay a Heavy Price' for Another Chemical Attack, White House Says
By MICHAEL D. SHEAR, HELENE COOPER and ERIC SCHMITT
The Failing New York Times
JUNE 26, 2017

.........

This outer borough mouthbreathing monkey is going to get us in a shooting war with Russia and Iran, if only because it's the opposite of Obama's Syria policy.   :lol:

Now that isn't helpful in reconciling the parties. Quit hurting 'Murica
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Grinning_Colossus on July 11, 2017, 05:02:14 AM
TASS reports that an Iraqi TV station has reported that some ISIS dudes said that al-Baghdadi is dead.

http://tass.com/world/955752 (http://tass.com/world/955752)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 19, 2017, 06:32:14 PM
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Trump Ends Covert CIA Program to Arm Anti-Assad Rebels in Syria (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-ends-covert-cia-program-to-arm-anti-assad-rebels-in-syria-a-move-sought-by-moscow/2017/07/19/b6821a62-6beb-11e7-96ab-5f38140b38cc_story.html)

QuotePresident Trump has decided to end the CIA's covert program to arm and train moderate Syrian rebels battling the government of Bashar al-Assad, a move long sought by Russia, according to U.S. officials.

The program was a central plank of a policy begun by the Obama administration in 2013 to put pressure on Assad to step aside, but even its backers have questioned its efficacy since Russia deployed forces in Syria two years later.

Officials said the phasing out of the secret program reflects Trump's interest in finding ways to work with Russia, which saw the anti-Assad program as an assault on its interests. The shuttering of the program is also an acknowledgment of Washington's limited leverage and desire to remove Assad from power.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on July 19, 2017, 07:12:18 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on July 19, 2017, 06:32:14 PM
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Trump Ends Covert CIA Program to Arm Anti-Assad Rebels in Syria (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-ends-covert-cia-program-to-arm-anti-assad-rebels-in-syria-a-move-sought-by-moscow/2017/07/19/b6821a62-6beb-11e7-96ab-5f38140b38cc_story.html)

QuotePresident Trump has decided to end the CIA's covert program to arm and train moderate Syrian rebels battling the government of Bashar al-Assad, a move long sought by Russia, according to U.S. officials.

The program was a central plank of a policy begun by the Obama administration in 2013 to put pressure on Assad to step aside, but even its backers have questioned its efficacy since Russia deployed forces in Syria two years later.

Officials said the phasing out of the secret program reflects Trump's interest in finding ways to work with Russia, which saw the anti-Assad program as an assault on its interests. The shuttering of the program is also an acknowledgment of Washington's limited leverage and desire to remove Assad from power.

Is this the one being run from Northern Jordan, with their active support and the Israelis turning very blind eyes too?

Or was is this the cock-up that was the Iblib province affair?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: citizen k on August 08, 2017, 02:15:18 PM

Quote
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-backed-kurds-release-video-221907876.html (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-backed-kurds-release-video-221907876.html)

US-backed Kurdish fighters battling ISIS in Syria released a video on Saturday showing their fighters destroying a tank being used by Turkish-backed rebels in northwest Syria, Military Times first reported.

I guess they were taking a break from fighting ISIS.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on August 08, 2017, 02:42:28 PM
Quote from: citizen k on August 08, 2017, 02:15:18 PM

Quote
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-backed-kurds-release-video-221907876.html (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-backed-kurds-release-video-221907876.html)

US-backed Kurdish fighters battling ISIS in Syria released a video on Saturday showing their fighters destroying a tank being used by Turkish-backed rebels in northwest Syria, Military Times first reported.

I guess they were taking a break from fighting ISIS.

given the support Turkey gave IS one can wonder if it's possible to speak of a break at all...
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on August 12, 2017, 09:10:06 PM
We really need to stop 'backing' people.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on August 13, 2017, 06:31:54 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 12, 2017, 09:10:06 PM
We really need to stop 'backing' people.

How about 'fronting' people instead; that's working out so well for the Donald.  :P
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on August 13, 2017, 08:21:24 AM
/front stabs DWM
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on March 03, 2018, 09:12:12 AM

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DXNeiZqX4AA04wh.jpg)

Quote
Heart broken,photo of 4 years child who is migrating from Syria to Jordan, the UNHCR team caught him when he was migrating alone in desert from Syria to Jordan. the only thing he had in his shopper were the clothes of his mom and sister,who killed in Syria.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on March 03, 2018, 10:28:34 AM
If only they had a wall, these kind of problems would not occur.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Jacob on March 03, 2018, 07:54:47 PM
That's heartbreaking.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on March 03, 2018, 09:59:31 PM
Quote from: Jacob on March 03, 2018, 07:54:47 PM
That's heartbreaking.

C'est la guerre. :(

And it just goes on and on.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: 11B4V on March 04, 2018, 08:31:54 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/18/image-syrian-boy-desert-un-refugees-tweet

Sorry to be the party pooper
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on March 04, 2018, 08:46:11 PM
Likely has a block of C4 in the bag too.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on March 05, 2018, 02:27:40 AM
Quote from: 11B4V on March 04, 2018, 08:31:54 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/18/image-syrian-boy-desert-un-refugees-tweet

Sorry to be the party pooper

Yay for Twitter!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Berkut on March 05, 2018, 07:50:57 AM
Great. more grist for the alt-right "the media is all lies" mill.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Jacob on March 05, 2018, 02:40:51 PM
Quote from: 11B4V on March 04, 2018, 08:31:54 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/18/image-syrian-boy-desert-un-refugees-tweet

Sorry to be the party pooper

Glad to hear he is with his family.

Still not a very happy situation for a four year old IMO.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on March 05, 2018, 04:22:53 PM
Yay Marwan!  :punk:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Jacob on March 05, 2018, 04:30:39 PM
Quote from: derspiess on March 05, 2018, 04:22:53 PM
Yay Marwan!  :punk:

How old is your youngest kid?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on March 05, 2018, 04:51:14 PM
Why?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Jacob on March 05, 2018, 05:55:48 PM
Quote from: derspiess on March 05, 2018, 04:51:14 PM
Why?

Because I have a kid about the same age as the boy in the picture. I was trying to remember if you do as well, but IIRC your youngest is a bit older than that - I was trying to recall by how much.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on March 05, 2018, 08:51:10 PM
It's a Trap!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on March 05, 2018, 09:12:44 PM
Quote from: Berkut on March 05, 2018, 07:50:57 AM
Great. more grist for the alt-right "the media is all lies" mill.

It was done by some idiot retweeting something and adding their own fake commentary. Not the media.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on March 05, 2018, 09:56:34 PM
According to the article, the caption was added by a CNN International anchor. So yes, the media.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on March 05, 2018, 09:58:07 PM
Anyway Jake, my daughter is going on 7 and my son is 10.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Jacob on March 06, 2018, 01:04:08 AM
Quote from: derspiess on March 05, 2018, 09:58:07 PM
Anyway Jake, my daughter is going on 7 and my son is 10.

May they continue to bring you joy :cheers:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on March 06, 2018, 01:06:10 AM
Quote from: derspiess on March 05, 2018, 09:56:34 PM
According to the article, the caption was added by a CNN International anchor. So yes, the media.

On twitter. Not in an actual report.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on March 06, 2018, 02:30:41 AM
Quote from: Valmy on March 06, 2018, 01:06:10 AM
Quote from: derspiess on March 05, 2018, 09:56:34 PM
According to the article, the caption was added by a CNN International anchor. So yes, the media.

On twitter. Not in an actual report.

People are confused today and think twitter is a great news source...
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on March 06, 2018, 02:43:00 AM
Quote from: garbon on March 06, 2018, 02:30:41 AM
Quote from: Valmy on March 06, 2018, 01:06:10 AM
Quote from: derspiess on March 05, 2018, 09:56:34 PM
According to the article, the caption was added by a CNN International anchor. So yes, the media.

On twitter. Not in an actual report.

People are confused today and think twitter is a great news source...

I think that's an important general point.If we manage to avoid eradicating ourselves as a species for the time being, people in time will learn to handle social media like they used to handle some bloke in the pub telling them something - sure, some people would take the story for granted, but most would keep at least some level of scepticism until they heard the same thing for a news source they trusted.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on March 06, 2018, 02:52:27 AM
I don't see how it matters if something is communicated through Twitter or some other way. Twitter is just a tool. US policy is communicated through Twitter, ignore that at your peril.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on March 06, 2018, 04:09:49 AM
Quote from: The Brain on March 06, 2018, 02:52:27 AM
I don't see how it matters if something is communicated through Twitter or some other way. Twitter is just a tool. US policy is communicated through Twitter, ignore that at your peril.

That's not true, Trump's staff and cabinet ignore his tweets until he backs them up with solid instructions.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on March 06, 2018, 04:42:26 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on March 06, 2018, 04:09:49 AM
Quote from: The Brain on March 06, 2018, 02:52:27 AM
I don't see how it matters if something is communicated through Twitter or some other way. Twitter is just a tool. US policy is communicated through Twitter, ignore that at your peril.

That's not true, Trump's staff and cabinet ignore his tweets until he backs them up with solid instructions.

When the POTUS is say threatening other countries with nuclear war on Twitter the US isn't actually threatening nuclear war? Good to know, and I'm sure everyone sees it that way.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: crazy canuck on March 06, 2018, 11:10:56 AM
Quote from: Tamas on March 06, 2018, 02:43:00 AM
I think that's an important general point.If we manage to avoid eradicating ourselves as a species for the time being, people in time will learn to handle social media like they used to handle some bloke in the pub telling them something - sure, some people would take the story for granted, but most would keep at least some level of scepticism until they heard the same thing for a news source they trusted.

The problem with that analogy is that people have other sources of information apart from the bloke in the pub.  One dominant source of information is becoming social media.  And so, in your analogy, people would have to stop spending most of their time talking to that bloke.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on March 06, 2018, 03:15:27 PM
Also, as I mentioned, the "bloke in the pub" is an actual news anchor in this case. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on March 06, 2018, 03:18:10 PM
Quote from: Jacob on March 06, 2018, 01:04:08 AM
Quote from: derspiess on March 05, 2018, 09:58:07 PM
Anyway Jake, my daughter is going on 7 and my son is 10.

May they continue to bring you joy :cheers:

Yep, thanks.  To get my daughter to go to bed at an earlier time, I had to agree to watch High School Musical 1, 2, *and* three with her this week.  God help me.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on March 06, 2018, 03:18:59 PM
Quote from: derspiess on March 06, 2018, 03:15:27 PM
Also, as I mentioned, the "bloke in the pub" is an actual news anchor in this case.

Doesn't mean he's not drunk and talking out of his ass.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on March 06, 2018, 03:19:13 PM
I'm confused as to an industry where there aren't mistakes. Also I'm confused as to why people would regularly subject themselves to twitter.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on March 06, 2018, 03:23:56 PM
Quote from: derspiess on March 06, 2018, 03:15:27 PM
Also, as I mentioned, the "bloke in the pub" is an actual news anchor in this case. 

I am aware but how he carelessly made the error is pretty obvious. If there had been an actual report or story on that subject people would have done research.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Jacob on March 06, 2018, 03:54:51 PM
Quote from: derspiess on March 06, 2018, 03:18:10 PM
Yep, thanks.  To get my daughter to go to bed at an earlier time, I had to agree to watch High School Musical 1, 2, *and* three with her this week.  God help me.

:lol:

You can use them later for karaoke...
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Grey Fox on March 06, 2018, 04:26:23 PM
Quote from: derspiess on March 06, 2018, 03:18:10 PM
Quote from: Jacob on March 06, 2018, 01:04:08 AM
Quote from: derspiess on March 05, 2018, 09:58:07 PM
Anyway Jake, my daughter is going on 7 and my son is 10.

May they continue to bring you joy :cheers:

Yep, thanks.  To get my daughter to go to bed at an earlier time, I had to agree to watch High School Musical 1, 2, *and* three with her this week.  God help me.

Just be glad it was the original english & not a dub.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on March 06, 2018, 08:03:53 PM
Quote from: derspiess on March 06, 2018, 03:18:10 PM
Quote from: Jacob on March 06, 2018, 01:04:08 AM
Quote from: derspiess on March 05, 2018, 09:58:07 PM
Anyway Jake, my daughter is going on 7 and my son is 10.

May they continue to bring you joy :cheers:

Yep, thanks.  To get my daughter to go to bed at an earlier time, I had to agree to watch High School Musical 1, 2, *and* three with her this week.  God help me.

:D
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on March 06, 2018, 09:16:11 PM
Quote from: derspiess on March 06, 2018, 03:18:10 PM
Quote from: Jacob on March 06, 2018, 01:04:08 AM
Quote from: derspiess on March 05, 2018, 09:58:07 PM
Anyway Jake, my daughter is going on 7 and my son is 10.

May they continue to bring you joy :cheers:

Yep, thanks.  To get my daughter to go to bed at an earlier time, I had to agree to watch High School Musical 1, 2, *and* three with her this week.  God help me.

Now you will know what those crazy kids thought was cool ten years ago. Just kidding those were never cool.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on March 06, 2018, 09:21:54 PM
Sadly Zack Efron's career seems to have flourished.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Ed Anger on March 06, 2018, 09:46:09 PM
I use children's Benadryl to calm my kids down.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: derspiess on March 06, 2018, 11:14:42 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on March 06, 2018, 09:21:54 PM
Sadly Zack Efron's career seems to have flourished.

Yeah, they were filming his Ted Bundy film near here recently. A guy I know was cast as an extra for a prison scene :lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: dps on March 06, 2018, 11:15:51 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on March 06, 2018, 09:46:09 PM
I use children's Benadryl to calm my kids down.

It won't actually calm them down unless they use it.  If you use it, it won't calm them down, but you just won't care/notice.




:P
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: grumbler on March 07, 2018, 06:13:53 AM
Quote from: derspiess on March 05, 2018, 09:56:34 PM
According to the article, the caption was added by a CNN International anchor. So yes, the media.
It was a tweet from someone who happens to be a news anchor.  Twitter is not part of the news media.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on March 15, 2018, 06:34:40 PM
The war is now 7 years old.  :(
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Monoriu on March 15, 2018, 07:47:48 PM
Quote from: mongers on March 15, 2018, 06:34:40 PM
The war is now 7 years old.  :(

Looks like it is going to end soon.  Is the date when the war ends the official end of the Arab Spring? 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 15, 2018, 08:05:59 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 15, 2018, 07:47:48 PM
Looks like it is going to end soon.  Is the date when the war ends the official end of the Arab Spring?

Not until Tunisia goes retard.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 08, 2018, 05:19:47 PM
Despite fighting his entire national security staff last week over Syria, demanding that we leave, he's rattling his saber today.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/982966315467116544?s=20
QuoteMany dead, including women and children, in mindless CHEMICAL attack in Syria. Area of atrocity is in lockdown and encircled by Syrian Army, making it completely inaccessible to outside world. President Putin, Russia and Iran are responsible for backing Animal Assad. Big price...
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on April 08, 2018, 06:06:42 PM
He forgot to mention Turkey.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: dps on April 08, 2018, 08:22:40 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on April 08, 2018, 06:06:42 PM
He forgot to mention Turkey.

It's not Thanksgiving.




:)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 10, 2018, 08:51:03 PM
Trump's thinking of air strikes as well as missiles.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/10/us/politics/trump-military-strike-syria.html
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 10, 2018, 11:08:46 PM
 :hmm:

https://twitter.com/nafisehkBBC/status/983824392621842433


Quote from: Nafiseh Kohnavard‏Verified account @nafisehkBBCAirlines that are still using Syria's airspace or operating in Middle East have received a request to change their corridors for the next 48 hours. Sources say that all military bases and important centres of the Syrian government are on high alert as a US attack is expected
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on April 11, 2018, 04:16:11 AM
I must say that this alleged gassing of people, of which the only "evidence" is kids with oxygen masks put on them, and some guys hosed with water in front of a camera, will easily dethrone the assassination of Franz Ferdinand as the lamest reason to start a World War.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: grumbler on April 11, 2018, 04:58:50 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 11, 2018, 04:16:11 AM
I must say that this alleged gassing of people, of which the only "evidence" is kids with oxygen masks put on them, and some guys hosed with water in front of a camera, will easily dethrone the assassination of Franz Ferdinand as the lamest reason to start a World War.

There's a lot more evidence than that.  If you say "video evidence," then you might be correct.  But there's more to evidence than YouTube.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on April 11, 2018, 05:04:04 AM
Quote from: grumbler on April 11, 2018, 04:58:50 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 11, 2018, 04:16:11 AM
I must say that this alleged gassing of people, of which the only "evidence" is kids with oxygen masks put on them, and some guys hosed with water in front of a camera, will easily dethrone the assassination of Franz Ferdinand as the lamest reason to start a World War.

There's a lot more evidence than that.  If you say "video evidence," then you might be correct.  But there's more to evidence than YouTube.

Is there?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on April 11, 2018, 06:09:45 AM
Ok, this is more convincing:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-ghouta-who/who-500-douma-patients-had-symptoms-consistent-with-toxic-weapons-exposure-idUSKBN1HI18D

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 11, 2018, 06:13:10 AM

Trump is about to play Scorpion to Putin's Frog.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/984022625440747520

Quote from: Donald J. TrumpRussia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia,  because they will be coming, nice and new and "smart!" You shouldn't be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on April 11, 2018, 06:36:39 AM
This will be a horribly lame way to burn down the world.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on April 11, 2018, 07:02:53 AM
If only we could have a terribly fun and exciting way.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on April 11, 2018, 12:41:50 PM
Firstly, I don't really believe that Syria used those chem weapons. They're on the verge of winning the civil war so why use weapons that gets the Assad regime in trouble with the world courts, UN, US/NATO? I feel that if the US and allies decide that action is needed against Assad then wait for more conclusive evidence. I've seen reports that UK and French leaders aren't certain of who made the attack.

The rebels in that town are likely of more radical factions - Al Nusra, ISIS, AQ, who ever else similar. It's been a bit absurd that the US still supports some of these "rebels" anyway. Those groups are not above staging a chemical attack regardless of who the victims are. This kind of action has happened often enough by similar groups in the region that we should have suspicions.

Attacking Russia's ally Syria, especially with the big attack that many pundits, media hacks and politicians of both parties say is needed runs a great risk of bring the US/allies in direct confrontation with Russian forces. Plus Iranian forces in there heavily and could act with Hezbollah against Israel, escalating things in other directions. The US still has troops  in Syria, so they're at risk from attacks by various players in the region, most especially Iranian forces or those sponsored by Iran. Also, Putin has said he'll retaliate against attacking units, shooting down missiles and aircraft. Maybe it's bluster but I figure it's more likely that he'll have to act given what he's said he'll do.
I fear a real danger of this escalating in directions we can't figure or control.

This rush to judgement is being poorly thought out. If Pres Trump does want to take action, I feel he should do what Pres Obama did by talking about approaching Congress before intervening in Syria. He knew the country was against it and that Congress would not likely approve so in speaking to those interests he chose to not intervene heavily.

We are probably much better off if Assad remains in power, because who or what factions will replace him? Is anyone thinking that some decent democratic group will come to power. Look what happened in Libya and realize this will be the same. Same for Afghanistan which is doing so well either. 
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on April 12, 2018, 02:15:48 AM
I agree.

The beating of war drums here in the UK is very disconcerting. Seems like a full media push to rile up people to the inevitability of going toe-to-toe with the Russians over this chemical attack. Makes no sense to me. I know it is very convenient for both Trump and May but their desire to deflect public attention surely can't be this desperate?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Maladict on April 12, 2018, 03:43:46 AM
Why can't we have a proxy war in a place that isn't full of priceless archaeological heritage?  :(

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: garbon on April 12, 2018, 04:04:37 AM
Quote from: Maladict on April 12, 2018, 03:43:46 AM
Why can't we have a proxy war in a place that isn't full of priceless archaeological heritage?  :(

It has been going on for many years now. :hmm:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on April 12, 2018, 05:58:10 AM
Quote from: Maladict on April 12, 2018, 03:43:46 AM
Why can't we have a proxy war in a place that isn't full of priceless archaeological heritage?  :(

Antarctica is not that important and the moon is tough to get to.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Maladict on April 12, 2018, 11:13:42 AM
Quote from: garbon on April 12, 2018, 04:04:37 AM
Quote from: Maladict on April 12, 2018, 03:43:46 AM
Why can't we have a proxy war in a place that isn't full of priceless archaeological heritage?  :(

It has been going on for many years now. :hmm:

I've been saying it from the start  :)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Maladict on April 12, 2018, 11:16:20 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on April 12, 2018, 05:58:10 AM
Quote from: Maladict on April 12, 2018, 03:43:46 AM
Why can't we have a proxy war in a place that isn't full of priceless archaeological heritage?  :(

Antarctica is not that important and the moon is tough to get to.

The Arctic seems to be important enough. And there's nothing of cultural value inbetween the US and Russia up north  :P
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: crazy canuck on April 12, 2018, 11:58:12 AM
Quote from: Maladict on April 12, 2018, 11:16:20 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on April 12, 2018, 05:58:10 AM
Quote from: Maladict on April 12, 2018, 03:43:46 AM
Why can't we have a proxy war in a place that isn't full of priceless archaeological heritage?  :(

Antarctica is not that important and the moon is tough to get to.

The Arctic seems to be important enough. And there's nothing of cultural value inbetween the US and Russia up north  :P

Well, at least wait until the Leaf and Jets are out of the playoffs, to give BB and the Leaf fans a chance at the cup this year.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on October 10, 2018, 07:24:01 PM
Current status of forces in and around Idlib province; poised for a climatic battle or a peace deal in the offing? 


(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/12258/production/_103782347_syria_idlib_province_map_08_10_2018_640-nc.png)


Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Monoriu on October 11, 2018, 06:13:34 PM
Reminds me of the third Punic War.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on December 19, 2018, 04:47:34 PM
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/19/politics/us-syria-withdrawal/index.html

QuoteTrump orders rapid withdrawal from Syria in apparent reversal

Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump has ordered staff to execute the "full" and "rapid" withdrawal of US military from Syria, declaring that the US has defeated ISIS.

"We have defeated ISIS in Syria, my only reason for being there during the Trump Presidency," Trump tweeted Wednesday morning. Planning for the pullout is already underway, a US defense official and an administration official told CNN.

The decision, a sharp reversal from previously stated US policy, surprised foreign allies and lawmakers, sparking rebukes, rebuttals and warnings of intensified congressional oversight, even as the White House said troops are already on their way home.

"I'm pretty annoyed," said Sen. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican and Trump ally, who told CNN's Manu Raju the President's decision was "Obama-like" -- a reference to President Barack Obama's decision to pull troops out of Iraq in 2011, which critics say gave rise to ISIS. Graham said the role of Congress is "to make administrations explain their policy, not in a tweet, but before Congress answering questions."

'Betrayed'

The President's decision flew in the face of policy statements by administration officials just days earlier and military statements about the threat of ISIS, highlighting the continuing dysfunction at the most senior levels of Trump's administration.

Even though the US will continue to maintain troops in Iraq with the capability of launching strikes into Syria, many analysts said a withdrawal of ground forces will please US enemies by clearing the way in Syria for the Assad regime, Russia and Iran. A US departure could leave allies questioning Washington's commitment, reduce US awareness of dynamics on the ground and diminish Washington's influence in the region.

It is "extraordinarily shortsighted and naive," said Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, who added that the decision will not only leave Iran hawks -- including lawmakers and Cabinet members such as national security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo -- feeling "betrayed," but also plant the seeds for rebellion among Republican ranks.

"This is a specifically Trumpian decision, and one that will be deeply unpopular within the vast majority of the GOP's foreign policy machine," Lister said. "Whether it takes hours or months, we will see some serious resistance coming out of this."

The fallout for Iran policy will be significant, said Derek Chollet, a US assistant secretary of defense in the Obama administration and now an executive vice president at the German Marshall Fund. "This drives a stake into the heart of the administration's Iran strategy."

Ignoring the lesson

The churn in the administration's foreign policy echoes -- and may be designed to distract from -- major upheaval on the domestic front, as Trump contends with criminal investigations into his campaign, transition, inaugural committee and presidency, the dissolution of his charity amid charges he used it to enrich himself and his former national security adviser Michael Flynn awaiting sentencing after lying to the FBI about his contacts with Russian officials.

While Trump repeatedly returned to the idea of pulling troops out of Syria on the campaign trail and in office, the move is hard to square with his other policy priorities or his past criticism of Obama.

"Trump himself said on the campaign trail that he may not have liked being in Iraq, but Obama ruined a lot by pulling out too early and not thinking about what would happen next," said David Adesnik, the director of research and a Syria analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "Here he is ignoring precisely that lesson."

"Every indicator that would tell you this is a premature withdrawal is back again," Adesnik added.

Lister said it was "extraordinary to see (Trump) repeating the same mistake and I actually think this could be worse," as Syria is in far worse shape than Iraq had been.

Allies blindsided

US allies in the region were blindsided by the announcement. Two diplomatic sources from two countries in the region said they had not been consulted or informed and that news of the planned withdrawal came as a "total surprise."

Tobias Ellwood, a minister in the British Ministry of Defense, said in a tweet that he "strongly" disagrees with Trump's comment on Wednesday that ISIS had been defeated. "It has morphed into other forms of extremism and the threat is very much alive," Ellwood wrote, while the Defense Ministry told CNN there would be no immediate change to its current operation in Syria.

According to a statement from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office, Trump informed Netanyahu on Monday of his decision. Netanyahu also had a conversation Tuesday with Pompeo. The two men reassured the Prime Minister that the US had "other ways of expressing their influence in the area," the statement added.

Iran is Israel's central concern. In September, Bolton said the United States wouldn't leave Syria as long as Iranian forces continued to operate there, directly linking any withdrawal of American troops to the departure of Iranian forces.

"We're not going to leave as long as Iranian troops are outside Iranian borders, and that includes Iranian proxies and militias," Bolton said at the time.

'It's a big reversal'

Asked if Wednesday's announcement meant that threat no longer exists, a White House official who declined to be identified publicly told CNN, "US forces will continue the fight against ISIS. We will continue to use tools of national power, including economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure, as leverage to press for the withdrawal of Iranian-backed forces."

But the administration's ability to push back on Iran -- a major foreign policy priority -- will take a hit because of Trump's decision, Adesnik said.

"It's a big reversal," he told CNN. "We have announced a policy of pushing back against Iran's nuclear violations and aggression in the region on every front. And Syria is an absolutely central front for Iran; for them it's an indispensable ally."

"You can't have a counter Iran strategy if you just hand Syria back to them," Adesnik said, "and it's not clear to me if this withdrawal in any way accounts for that."

Lister said it amounts to giving up "all leverage and as part of a regional strategy of containing Iran, all of that becomes a joke. We've just told Iran and all of our regional allies we don't believe in sticking it out to achieve our foreign policy objectives."

"Iran will take this as a huge vote of confidence," he said.

Troops on the ground

The US has about 2,000 troops in Syria, where they are primarily training local forces to combat ISIS. The US-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces have had some recent success against the terror group and are on the cusp of capturing the last major town held by ISIS east of the Euphrates.

"Five years ago, ISIS was a very powerful and dangerous force in the Middle East, and now the United States has defeated the territorial caliphate," White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said in a statement.

"We have started returning United States troops home as we transition to the next phase of this campaign," she said, adding that the US victories didn't signal an end of the global coalition on ISIS or its campaign.

Estimates vary as to how many ISIS fighters are left in Syria, but Lister noted that "we're arguably years from achieving" a defeat of ISIS.

"To make that fact as clear as day," he said, only 10 minutes before Trump sent his Wednesday tweet, "ISIS claimed responsibility for an attack in Raqqa," a town the US had liberated and where US troops and US Agency for International Development and State Department personnel are deployed.

Threading the needle

The anti-ISIS coalition has estimated there are some 2,000 ISIS fighters in the town of Hajin, the terror group's last redoubt. But a Defense Department inspector general report put the number of ISIS members in Syria and Iraq as high as 30,000.

Gen. Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said this month that the US needed to train thousands of local fighters to ensure a lasting defeat of the terror group
The chief Pentagon spokesperson, Dana W. White, tried to thread the needle. "The Coalition has liberated the ISIS-held territory, but the campaign against ISIS is not over," she said in a statement. "We have started the process of returning U.S. troops home from Syria as we transition to the next phase of the campaign. We will continue working with our partners and allies to defeat ISIS wherever it operates."

For force protection and operational security reasons, White said the Pentagon would not provide further details. A State Department spokesperson, speaking on background, said that for operational security reasons the department would have no comment on the movement of agency personnel.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on December 19, 2018, 04:53:37 PM
I guess the US being a Russian vassal state will avert WW3 for now, but I do feel sorry for the Kurds.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Habbaku on December 19, 2018, 04:55:00 PM
:yeah:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Duque de Bragança on December 19, 2018, 05:14:20 PM
Quote from: Tamas on December 19, 2018, 04:53:37 PM
I guess the US being a Russian vassal state will avert WW3 for now, but I do feel sorry for the Kurds.

Back to business as usual, Kurds always get used by others and then shafted at the end.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 19, 2018, 05:45:03 PM
I think it's a defensible move.  We originally became involved in Syria ostensibly to defeat ISIS.  That has been 90% completed.  Mission-creep was pushing us to become a player in the 12-sided civil/proxy war.

And if Bolton looks like a doofus because of it, that's a bonus.

Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on December 19, 2018, 06:05:39 PM
Turkey's chance now to be a major power embroiled in Syria for years on end?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on December 19, 2018, 06:09:35 PM
Quote from: mongers on December 19, 2018, 06:05:39 PM
Turkey's chance now to be a major power embroiled in Syria for years on end?

I do wonder if Iran or Russia can possibly get anything more out of Syria this way that they don't already have. I doubt US troops could remove their influence by being there. So apart from green lighting the coming destruction of the Kurds I don't mind the move.

And Turkey is especially welcome to try and play Ottoman Empire in the Syrian mess while their economy is on the brink of ruin.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Razgovory on December 19, 2018, 07:11:00 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on December 19, 2018, 04:55:00 PM
:yeah:


I'm fine with it.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Duque de Bragança on December 20, 2018, 06:30:53 AM
Quote from: Tamas on December 19, 2018, 06:09:35 PM
Quote from: mongers on December 19, 2018, 06:05:39 PM
Turkey's chance now to be a major power embroiled in Syria for years on end?

I do wonder if Iran or Russia can possibly get anything more out of Syria this way that they don't already have. I doubt US troops could remove their influence by being there. So apart from green lighting the coming destruction of the Kurds I don't mind the move.

And Turkey is especially welcome to try and play Ottoman Empire in the Syrian mess while their economy is on the brink of ruin.

Sure, it's not like Turkey has leverage on Europe with "migrants".
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 20, 2018, 08:20:26 AM
Trump's dementia is getting ridiculous

Quote.Russia, Iran, Syria & many others are not happy about the U.S. leaving, despite what the Fake News says, because now they will have to fight ISIS and others, who they hate, without us. I am building by far the most powerful military in the world. ISIS hits us they are doomed!

18.8K
9:16 PM - Dec 20, 2018
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Liep on December 20, 2018, 08:34:57 AM
Putin just said in his yearly press conference today that he thinks it's a good decision by Trump, at least a full hour before that tweet.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on December 20, 2018, 08:41:17 AM
"they will have to fight ISIS"

I thought ISIS is defeated?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on December 20, 2018, 09:10:27 AM
Quote from: Syt on December 20, 2018, 08:41:17 AM
"they will have to fight ISIS"

I thought ISIS is defeated?

Your rigidity toward what's true and what's not from one hour to the next will leave you behind the times, Syt.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Minsky Moment on December 20, 2018, 12:00:01 PM
There is a Trumpian logic to this. Trump prizes unpredictability and doing something without warning that contradicts announced policy fits nicely within that. He doesn't like paying for troops overseas. He likes being able to declare victory and claim "promises kept," much more than having an actual victory. He is not interested in policy and thus the tension between this move and the US anti-Iranian policy is not a concern.

It's pointless to talk about whether it's a good move because how does one evaluate a troop withdrawal (or commitment) without an understanding of the strategic context?  Trump has no strategy, no policy and thus there is no context to evaluate.

Like Yi the idea of egg on Bolton's face makes me smile in the abstract.  But in the concrete Bolton is out there as the official voice of US foreign policy.  I don't like that voice but IMO it's not a great improvement to have Bolton declaring what policy is while Trump takes actions without consultation in derogation of that policy. This kind of unpredictability doesn't deter or intimidate foes and competitors, it just confuses the hell out of allies.  To the extent we still have allies . . .

EDIT: the other context in which this move makes perfect sense is if you assume Trump accepts the Putin view of the world of traditional Great Power politics and spheres of influence, and that Trump has agreed to cede Syria and Lebanon to the Russian sphere. His otherwise mystifying tweet makes more sense viewed that way. i
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Duque de Bragança on December 21, 2018, 07:41:07 AM
One of the Syrian Kurd leaders warned against a likely loss of control over foreign jihadis held by by Syrian Turks in case of a Turkish offensive. Not to mention withdrawing from the battle against Daesh.
I guess that's one way to get support from France and other European countries now that Trump pulls out.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tamas on December 21, 2018, 08:37:14 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on December 21, 2018, 07:41:07 AM
One of the Syrian Kurd leaders warned against a likely loss of control over foreign jihadis held by by Syrian Turks in case of a Turkish offensive. Not to mention withdrawing from the battle against Daesh.
I guess that's one way to get support from France and other European countries now that Trump pulls out.

If there's no desire to get behind the Kurds and give them a proper state so they won't be constantly fucked up by all their overlords, then it is better to just pull out and leave the bloody mess to the various dictators. Good luck trying to get any use out of the country in the next 20 years. And Syria was a Soviet/Russian satellite anyways, so it's just going back to status quo, except Turkey and Iran will also have a say. Putin is welcome to sort that out.

It just should not have been done this sudden way.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on January 14, 2019, 02:20:56 AM
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/13/politics/trump-turkey-kurds/index.html

QuoteTrump threatens to 'devastate' Turkey's economy if they attack Kurds in Syria

QuoteDonald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

Starting the long overdue pullout from Syria while hitting the little remaining ISIS territorial caliphate hard, and from many directions. Will attack again from existing nearby base if it reforms. Will devastate Turkey economically if they hit Kurds. Create 20 mile safe zone....

....Likewise, do not want the Kurds to provoke Turkey. Russia, Iran and Syria have been the biggest beneficiaries of the long term U.S. policy of destroying ISIS in Syria - natural enemies. We also benefit but it is now time to bring our troops back home. Stop the ENDLESS WARS!
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 14, 2019, 01:28:41 PM
The "nearby base" being?
Whole thing is gibberish.  Nonsensical way to run a foreign "policy"
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on January 14, 2019, 01:45:19 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 14, 2019, 01:28:41 PM
The "nearby base" being?
Whole thing is gibberish.  Nonsensical way to run a foreign "policy"

Here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incirlik_Air_Base (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incirlik_Air_Base)

The one Trump doesn't know is inside the country he's just threatened to destroy economically over their involvement in Syria.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 14, 2019, 01:57:26 PM
Disagree that it's gibberish.  Someone pointed out to the Big Tool that running away fucks the Kurds (who have been so loyal!!!) and it would be good to signal that the US will not stand by while Turkey steamrollls them.

And the policy is certainly better than the grammar.  The little remaining ISIS territorial caliphate.

Has anyone considered the possibility that Teddy KGB whisked the real Trump out of his piss sodden Moscow hotel bed and replaced him with a body double?  That would explain the English as a second language.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: KRonn on January 15, 2019, 08:39:36 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 14, 2019, 01:57:26 PM
Disagree that it's gibberish.  Someone pointed out to the Big Tool that running away fucks the Kurds (who have been so loyal!!!) and it would be good to signal that the US will not stand by while Turkey steamrollls them.

And the policy is certainly better than the grammar.  The little remaining ISIS territorial caliphate.


Agreed.  I've been wondering what we expect to do there given that Isis is mostly gone. Assad isn't going to be overthrown by the remaining rebels and if the US is supporting them then who are they and what are their goals. I am glad though that the admin tempered the pull out policy or at least defined it better than the first announcement, especially to not abandon the Kurds.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on January 15, 2019, 08:42:40 PM
Yeah I am fine with supporting people whose goals we agree with and who actually want to be supported. Certainly better than wasting resources training Iraqi police units.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Grinning_Colossus on October 27, 2019, 08:01:06 AM
So the Caliph blew himself up
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on October 27, 2019, 11:00:55 AM
Seems like Kurdish forces helped, but it sounds like Trump was slagging off the Kurds at the press conference. Didn't watch it, so this is just secondhand.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Legbiter on October 27, 2019, 12:31:32 PM
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on October 27, 2019, 08:01:06 AM
So the Caliph blew himself up

Good. Nice work Yanks.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on October 27, 2019, 12:53:59 PM
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on October 27, 2019, 08:01:06 AM
So the Caliph blew himself up

Freak gardening accident.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 27, 2019, 01:02:51 PM
Wonder what they'll do with the body.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on October 27, 2019, 01:03:43 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 27, 2019, 01:02:51 PM
Wonder what they'll do with the body.

You worry about an LBJ scenario?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 28, 2019, 12:28:18 AM
Let the pigs have it.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: dps on October 28, 2019, 12:34:38 AM
What use would cops have for it?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 28, 2019, 12:41:05 AM
 :)

I mean actual pigs, of course.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on October 28, 2019, 01:37:15 AM
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/27/politics/donald-trump-baghdadi-death-isis/index.html

Quote(CNN)On Sunday morning, President Donald Trump announced that ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi had died as a result of a US raid in northern Syria. And then he kept talking. And taking questions. And more questions.

I went through the transcript of Trump's remarks and pulled out the most, uh, notable lines.

1. "He died after running into a dead-end tunnel, whimpering and crying and screaming all the way."

Trump is very interested in painting a specific picture of Baghdadi for the public -- of a cowardly fake tough guy. His detailed description of how Baghdadi met his end is a direct contrast to the light-on-details presentation by President Barack Obama when announcing the death of Osama bin Laden in 2011.

2. "The thug who tried so hard to intimidate others spent his last moments in utter fear, in total panic and dread, terrified of the American forces bearing down on him."
Like I said, Trump is very interested in you knowing the gritty details -- with the primary aim of casting Baghdadi as a fearful wimp in his last moments.

3. "As you know, last month we announced that we recently killed Hamza bin Laden, the very violent son of Osama bin Laden, who was saying very bad things about people, about our country, about the world."
"Saying very bad things about people."

4. "Baghdadi has been on the run for many years, long before I took office. But at my direction, as commander-in-chief of the United States, we obliterated his caliphate 100% in March of this year."
It's not at all clear that 100% of the ISIS caliphate has been defeated -- or if that is even possible or what it would look like.

5. "Baghdadi was vicious and violent. And he died in a vicious and violent way, as a coward, running and crying."
Again, Trump is making very sure you know that the world knows that Baghdadi was no hero -- far from it.

6. "He died like a dog. He died like a coward."
So, yeah.

7. "I don't want to say how, but we had absolutely perfect -- as though you were watching a movie. It was -- that -- that in -- the technology there alone is -- is really great."
"As though you were watching a movie."

8. "Russia treated us great. They opened up. We had a fly over certain Russia areas, Russia-held areas. Russia was great."
[Vladimir Putin nods, smiles]

9. "Turkey -- we dealt with them. They knew we were going in. We flew over some territory. They were terrific. No problem. They were not problem."
Good job, Turkey. Thanks for letting us fly "over some territory!"

10. "We flew very, very low and very, very fast."
"Fast and Furious 20: Very, very low and very, very fast."

11. "They had the gunfire terminated immediately, meaning they were shot from the air ships."
Shot from the air ships, you say? Is that a technical term?

12. "And we would kill terrorist leaders but they were names I never heard of, they were names that weren't recognizable and they weren't the big names. Some good ones, some important ones, but they weren't the big names."
When killing terrorists, you always have to go for the big names. Also: Sort of weird that the President admits he didn't know the names of some of the terrorists the US has killed under his watch, no?

13. "You know, they use the internet better than almost anybody in the world, perhaps other than Donald Trump."
So, ISIS uses the Internet better than everyone except Donald Trump? OK, got it! Totally normal stuff here!

14. "And what they've done with the internet through recruiting and everything -- and that's why he died like a dog, he died like a coward. He was whimpering, screaming and crying."
These sentences are not edited at all. This is exactly what Trump said and in this order. Why did he switch from talking about the Internet to talking about, again, how Baghdadi died? (It was like a dog and a coward, FYI.) I have no idea.

15. "He didn't die a hero. He died a coward: crying, whimpering, screaming and bringing three kids with him to die."
OK, got it.

16. "I've been looking for him for three years. I've been looking for him."
"I've."

17. "We were going to notify them last night, but we decided not to do that because Washington leaks like I've never seen before."
This is big news. Usually in major operations like this one, the administration would alert top congressional leaders of both parties. Trump chose not to do that. "The House must be briefed on this raid, which the Russians but not top Congressional Leadership were notified of in advance, and on the Administration's overall strategy in the region," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (California) said in a statement.

18. "This is the biggest one perhaps that we've ever captured, because this is the one that built ISIS and beyond, and was looking to rebuild it again."
Even when it comes to capturing or killing terrorists, Trump has to be the biggest and the best. "The biggest one perhaps that we've ever captured."

19. "That was to notify you guys that you have something big this morning, so you wouldn't be out playing golf or tennis or otherwise being indisposed."
This is Trump's defense of his "Something very big has just happened!" tweet at 9:23 p.m., Eastern time on Saturday night. Worth noting: Trump plays golf at least once virtually every weekend.

20. "The Kurds have worked along incredibly with us, but, in all fairness, it was much easier dealing with the Kurds after they went through three days of fighting, because that was a brutal three days."
You mean when Turkey invaded northern Syria and started slaughtering Kurds? Yeah, that seems like it was a "brutal three days." For sure.

21. "Now, Russia likes us being there for two reasons, because we kill ISIS. We kill terrorists. And they're very close to Russia."
In summary: Russia likes us because they hate ISIS. And we kill terrorists. Any questions?

22. "Now, maybe they can get here, but we have done very well with homeland security and the ban, which, by the way, is approved by the United States Supreme Court, as you know."
Wait, so we are talking about the Muslim travel ban now? Why? How?

23. "But it's many thousands of miles away, whereas Russia is right there. Turkey is right there. Syria is there. They're all right there."
So, the United States is geographically further from Syria and Turkey than Russia? [Consults map] Yeah, this checks out.

24. "Excuse me. Iran is right there. Iraq is right there. They all hate ISIS."
Are we doing the thing where we name countries? Lichtenstein! San Marino!

25. "The European nations have been a tremendous disappointment, because I personally called, but my people called a lot, take your ISIS fighters. And they didn't want them."
Just a reminder: This is still Trump's "statement" on the death of Baghdadi. In case you forgot.

26. "They can't walk to our country. We have lots of water in between our country and them."
"This is an island surrounded by water, big water, ocean water." -- Donald Trump, on Puerto Rico

27. "If you read about the history of Donald Trump, I was a civilian. I had absolutely nothing to do with going into Iraq and I was totally against it."
First off, great third-person here by Trump. Second, he was not "totally against" the war in Iraq.

28. "Our K9, as they call -- I call it a dog, a beautiful dog, a talented dog -- was injured and brought back, but we had no soldier injured."
A "dog," you say? Can't say I'm familiar with the word.

29. "By the time those things went off, they had a beautiful big hole and they ran in and they got everybody by surprise."
The US troops blew a "beautiful big hole" in the area where Baghdadi was staying. And yes, Trump uses the word "beautiful" to describe all sorts of odd things.

30. "And as I said, they brought body parts back with them, et cetera, et cetera. There wasn't much left. The vest blew up, but there are still substantial pieces that they brought back."
Whole lotta detail here.

31. "Osama bin Laden was very big, but Osama bin Laden became big with the World Trade Center. This is a man who built a whole, as he would like to call it, a country, a caliphate, and was trying to do it again."
Again, Trump's obsession with being the biggest and the best is on full display here. People might think bin Laden was the biggest but it was actually Baghdadi!

32. "When we use our intelligence correctly, what we can do is incredible. When we waste our time with intelligence that hurts our country, because we had poor leadership at the top, that's not good."
In which the President takes a(nother) shot at the intelligence community during a statement on the death of an ISIS terrorist.

33. "And it's really a deserving name, intelligence. I have dealt with some people that aren't very intelligent having to do with intel. But this is the top people."
No words.

34. "There's a lot of Syrian people with lots of guns."
Uh, OK. So, uh, well, OK.

35. "But he was screaming, crying and whimpering. And he was scared out of his mind."
Again, for the people in the back.

36. "And then I also wanted Hamza bin Laden, because he's a young man, around 30, looks just like his father, tall, very handsome, and he was talking bad things just like his father."
On the one hand: Tall and handsome. On the other: Saying bad things.

37. "I wrote a book. A really very successful book. And in that book, about a year before the World Trade Center was blown up, I said there's somebody named Osama bin Laden, you better kill him or take him out, something to that effect, he's big trouble."
It will stun you to learn that this, in fact, is not true, as CNN's Daniel Dale noted in this fact check.

38. "And I'm writing a book. I think I wrote 12 books, all did very well."
... Said the President of the United States in a press conference announcing the death of an ISIS leader.

39. "And I'm saying to people, take out Osama bin Laden, that nobody ever heard of."
Trump's claim that no one had ever heard of bin Laden before September 11, 2001 is simply false.

40. "We had nobody even hurt. That's why the dog was so great."
Big dog energy.

41. "He was an animal. And he was a gutless animal."
This feels like as good a place as any to end.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on October 28, 2019, 01:40:33 AM
Also, John Oliver on Trump and Syria: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2u_pZ-SgACk
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on October 28, 2019, 02:04:16 AM
There's always a Tweet.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EH6Z8aSX4AcYS7f?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on October 28, 2019, 08:06:19 AM
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on October 27, 2019, 08:01:06 AM
So the Caliph blew himself up

Well nice to have some good news from Syria for a change.

I mean I don't know how relevant that guy is anymore but still now ISIS has to distract itself finding his successor.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Legbiter on October 28, 2019, 08:30:20 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 28, 2019, 08:06:19 AM
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on October 27, 2019, 08:01:06 AM
So the Caliph blew himself up

Well nice to have some good news from Syria for a change.

I mean I don't know how relevant that guy is anymore but still now ISIS has to distract itself finding his successor.

It's interesting he was found right under the noses of the Turks around the Western backed "moderate" opposition. Idlib needs a good scouring.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Grey Fox on October 28, 2019, 08:50:24 AM
Quote from: Syt on October 28, 2019, 01:40:33 AM
Also, John Oliver on Trump and Syria: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2u_pZ-SgACk

It's geoblocked here, what did he say?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on October 28, 2019, 08:55:21 AM
Basically summarizing the retarded behavior of Trump over the last weeks with regards to Syria, the reactions, and its implications
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 28, 2019, 09:05:06 AM
Quote from: Legbiter on October 28, 2019, 08:30:20 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 28, 2019, 08:06:19 AM
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on October 27, 2019, 08:01:06 AM
So the Caliph blew himself up

Well nice to have some good news from Syria for a change.

I mean I don't know how relevant that guy is anymore but still now ISIS has to distract itself finding his successor.

It's interesting he was found right under the noses of the Turks around the Western backed "moderate" opposition. Idlib needs a good scouring.

Moderate western-backed opposition was in the south, along the Jordan border, not around Idleb. Idleb was Al-Qaida, other islamist groups and Erdogan's playground.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Legbiter on October 28, 2019, 09:08:55 AM
Quote from: KRonn on January 15, 2019, 08:39:36 PM


Agreed.  I've been wondering what we expect to do there given that Isis is mostly gone. Assad isn't going to be overthrown by the remaining rebels and if the US is supporting them then who are they and what are their goals.

They haven't been able to win for years and these jihadists should be killed off. Been kept on life support as a cynical leverage against the Syrian government.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Sheilbh on October 28, 2019, 04:26:40 PM
As ever, what does he have against dogs? :blink:

The number of people he's fired like a dog, or have begged like a dog and now died like a dog is just kind of horrifying :o
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on October 28, 2019, 04:49:33 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 28, 2019, 04:26:40 PM
As ever, what does he have against dogs? :blink:

The number of people he's fired like a dog, or have begged like a dog and now died like a dog is just kind of horrifying :o

Is this the dog days afternoon of a presidency?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on October 28, 2019, 05:55:01 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 28, 2019, 04:26:40 PM
As ever, what does he have against dogs? :blink:

The number of people he's fired like a dog, or have begged like a dog and now died like a dog is just kind of horrifying :o

He even called the K9 a dog FFS.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on October 28, 2019, 07:14:46 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 28, 2019, 04:26:40 PM
As ever, what does he have against dogs? :blink:

The number of people he's fired like a dog, or have begged like a dog and now died like a dog is just kind of horrifying :o

Not all dogs:
(https://i.imgur.com/3Aj3yKm.png)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Malthus on October 29, 2019, 07:52:36 AM
Name not declassified - because knowing the dog's name might put his littermates at risk?  :D
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: FunkMonk on October 29, 2019, 10:54:28 AM
Future historians will write of the hero dog that personally ripped out Baghdadi's throat and shit on his corpse.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on October 29, 2019, 10:57:44 AM
Trump's rambling speech announcing Baghdadi's death. Is it possible that he was shaken because he couldn't handle what was potentially rather violent/gory footage?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Legbiter on October 29, 2019, 11:04:11 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on October 29, 2019, 10:54:28 AM
Future historians will write of the hero dog that personally ripped out Baghdadi's throat and shit on his corpse.

The Caliph committing suicide in a tunnel while being pursued by unclean dogs is such a perfectly delicious Fuck You counter-narrative to ISIS. The Hollywood epic writes itself.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: crazy canuck on October 29, 2019, 11:08:07 AM
Quote from: Syt on October 29, 2019, 10:57:44 AM
Trump's rambling speech announcing Baghdadi's death. Is it possible that he was shaken because he couldn't handle what was potentially rather violent/gory footage?

Interesting article in the NYtimes the other day about how difficult it is to write briefing reports for this President knowing that he could blurt out things that should not be divulged publicly.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on October 29, 2019, 11:28:09 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on October 29, 2019, 11:08:07 AM
Quote from: Syt on October 29, 2019, 10:57:44 AM
Trump's rambling speech announcing Baghdadi's death. Is it possible that he was shaken because he couldn't handle what was potentially rather violent/gory footage?

Interesting article in the NYtimes the other day about how difficult it is to write briefing reports for this President knowing that he could blurt out things that should not be divulged publicly.

Surely deciding what to say to the public is within the powers of the POTUS? And if you don't trust your boss why work for him?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: crazy canuck on October 29, 2019, 11:52:21 AM
Quote from: The Brain on October 29, 2019, 11:28:09 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on October 29, 2019, 11:08:07 AM
Quote from: Syt on October 29, 2019, 10:57:44 AM
Trump's rambling speech announcing Baghdadi's death. Is it possible that he was shaken because he couldn't handle what was potentially rather violent/gory footage?

Interesting article in the NYtimes the other day about how difficult it is to write briefing reports for this President knowing that he could blurt out things that should not be divulged publicly.

Surely deciding what to say to the public is within the powers of the POTUS? And if you don't trust your boss why work for him?

The problem in a nut shell for a lot of career diplomats and intelligence types who really care about their country.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on October 29, 2019, 02:06:18 PM
Mash-up of Obama's Bin Laden speech and Trump's speech about Baghdadi:

https://twitter.com/jimmykimmel/status/1189153270167564288?s=20
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on October 29, 2019, 02:35:03 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on October 29, 2019, 11:52:21 AM
Quote from: The Brain on October 29, 2019, 11:28:09 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on October 29, 2019, 11:08:07 AM
Quote from: Syt on October 29, 2019, 10:57:44 AM
Trump's rambling speech announcing Baghdadi's death. Is it possible that he was shaken because he couldn't handle what was potentially rather violent/gory footage?

Interesting article in the NYtimes the other day about how difficult it is to write briefing reports for this President knowing that he could blurt out things that should not be divulged publicly.

Surely deciding what to say to the public is within the powers of the POTUS? And if you don't trust your boss why work for him?

The problem in a nut shell for a lot of career diplomats and intelligence types who really care about their country.

Yes. If you care about the US you don't work for Trump.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: FunkMonk on October 29, 2019, 02:56:27 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on October 29, 2019, 11:04:11 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on October 29, 2019, 10:54:28 AM
Future historians will write of the hero dog that personally ripped out Baghdadi's throat and shit on his corpse.

The Caliph committing suicide in a tunnel while being pursued by unclean dogs is such a perfectly delicious Fuck You counter-narrative to ISIS. The Hollywood epic writes itself.

The movie will be such jingoistic tripe and I'll love every bit of it   :lol:
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on October 29, 2019, 02:58:26 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on October 29, 2019, 02:56:27 PM
The movie will be such jingoistic tripe and I'll love every bit of it   :lol:

Hollywood wouldn't make it, not marketable in China.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Tonitrus on October 29, 2019, 03:31:35 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 29, 2019, 02:58:26 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on October 29, 2019, 02:56:27 PM
The movie will be such jingoistic tripe and I'll love every bit of it   :lol:

Hollywood wouldn't make it, not marketable in China.

Just give a Nine-Dash Line map some prominent screen time and it'll be good.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 30, 2019, 07:48:48 AM
Quote from: Malthus on October 29, 2019, 07:52:36 AM
Name not declassified - because knowing the dog's name might put his littermates at risk?  :D

You might be able to tie a dog's name to the owner, who is presumably a special forces operative.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on October 31, 2019, 08:54:31 PM

Quote

.....

On landing, US special forces commandos blew holes in the walls of the compound and called on Baghdadi to surrender, the military said. But he fled into a tunnel and detonated a suicide vest, killing himself and two children he had taken with him.

"You can deduce what kind of person it is based on that activity," said the head of US Central Command, Gen Kenneth McKenzie.
After the raid, the compound was destroyed in an air strike.

Gen McKenzie said the destroyed buildings were left looking like "a parking lot with large potholes".

He added that he could not confirm President Donald Trump's graphic description of Baghdadi whimpering and crying as he died.


Looks like someone else won't be 'working for' Trump too much longer.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 31, 2019, 08:58:30 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 31, 2019, 08:54:31 PM
Looks like someone else won't be 'working for' Trump too much longer.

Disagree.  If they made the hit based inference and soft intel, that'll piss off the liberuls, and the tards will lap up their tears.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on November 01, 2019, 01:36:40 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 31, 2019, 08:58:30 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 31, 2019, 08:54:31 PM
Looks like someone else won't be 'working for' Trump too much longer.

Disagree.  If they made the hit based inference and soft intel, that'll piss off the liberuls, and the tards will lap up their tears.

I don't follow.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 01, 2019, 01:40:25 AM
Quote from: The Brain on November 01, 2019, 01:36:40 AM
I don't follow.

I don't believe you.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on November 01, 2019, 01:52:38 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 01, 2019, 01:40:25 AM
Quote from: The Brain on November 01, 2019, 01:36:40 AM
I don't follow.

I don't believe you.

No I actually don't follow.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on November 01, 2019, 01:55:18 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 01, 2019, 01:40:25 AM
Quote from: The Brain on November 01, 2019, 01:36:40 AM
I don't follow.

I don't believe you.

Trump won't give his generals any credit he doesn't have to, especially if they openly contradict him.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 01, 2019, 01:59:30 AM
Quote from: The Brain on November 01, 2019, 01:52:38 AM
No I actually don't follow.

OK.  You better not be fucking with me.

I inferred from mongers post that he thought the quoted passage suggested some degree of uncertainty about the identity of the target they hit.  He insinuated that the general's expression of this uncertainty would create political problems for him.  I countered that, seeing as how the normal constituency opposed to assassination missions is the left, that those are the folks who would be upset by this admission.  And additionally, since the central organizing principle of the Trump/Tea Party/Q/Alt right is joy in upsetting the left/progressives, that this would gladden Trump's base and the commander of CentCom's job is in fact not in jeopardy.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Solmyr on November 01, 2019, 05:00:59 AM
What exactly is the big deal with killing Al-Baghdadi, anyway? Did he do anything notable? Did most people even know who he was before now? They are just appointing ISIS terrorist #32213 as his replacement now, so it doesn't seem like it was a big deal for ISIS, either.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on November 01, 2019, 05:03:12 AM
Quote from: Solmyr on November 01, 2019, 05:00:59 AM
What exactly is the big deal with killing Al-Baghdadi, anyway? Did he do anything notable? Did most people even know who he was before now? They are just appointing ISIS terrorist #32213 as his replacement now, so it doesn't seem like it was a big deal for ISIS, either.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Bakr_al-Baghdadi#Leader_of_Islamic_State_of_Iraq_and_the_Levant_(ISIL)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Solmyr on November 01, 2019, 05:45:20 AM
I know who he was, but was he actually more important than some random terrorist leader? Bin Laden at least orchestrated the most major terrorist attack in modern history.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on November 01, 2019, 05:56:55 AM
I don't know of anyone besides Trump who's saying he's more important than bin Laden.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: The Brain on November 01, 2019, 07:14:25 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 01, 2019, 01:59:30 AM
Quote from: The Brain on November 01, 2019, 01:52:38 AM
No I actually don't follow.

OK.  You better not be fucking with me.

I inferred from mongers post that he thought the quoted passage suggested some degree of uncertainty about the identity of the target they hit.  He insinuated that the general's expression of this uncertainty would create political problems for him.  I countered that, seeing as how the normal constituency opposed to assassination missions is the left, that those are the folks who would be upset by this admission.  And additionally, since the central organizing principle of the Trump/Tea Party/Q/Alt right is joy in upsetting the left/progressives, that this would gladden Trump's base and the commander of CentCom's job is in fact not in jeopardy.

Thank you. And no I'm not fucking with you.

My reading of the post was that the general, by not supporting Trump's made up stuff about whimpering and crying, made himself unpopular with Trump and/or displayed doubts about working for Trump.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: crazy canuck on November 01, 2019, 07:31:41 AM
Yi has been reading too many of Syt's siater's memes
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on November 01, 2019, 08:57:11 AM
Quote from: The Brain on November 01, 2019, 07:14:25 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 01, 2019, 01:59:30 AM
Quote from: The Brain on November 01, 2019, 01:52:38 AM
No I actually don't follow.

OK.  You better not be fucking with me.

I inferred from mongers post that he thought the quoted passage suggested some degree of uncertainty about the identity of the target they hit.  He insinuated that the general's expression of this uncertainty would create political problems for him.  I countered that, seeing as how the normal constituency opposed to assassination missions is the left, that those are the folks who would be upset by this admission.  And additionally, since the central organizing principle of the Trump/Tea Party/Q/Alt right is joy in upsetting the left/progressives, that this would gladden Trump's base and the commander of CentCom's job is in fact not in jeopardy.

Thank you. And no I'm not fucking with you.

My reading of the post was that the general, by not supporting Trump's made up stuff about whimpering and crying, made himself unpopular with Trump and/or displayed doubts about working for Trump.

Yes.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Maximus on November 01, 2019, 10:40:33 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 01, 2019, 07:31:41 AM
Yi has been reading too many of Syt's siater's memes
If you mean the part about the central organizing principle is owning the libs, that part is correct. It's a whole movement full of derspeisses.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 01, 2019, 09:29:16 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 01, 2019, 01:59:30 AM
Quote from: The Brain on November 01, 2019, 01:52:38 AM
No I actually don't follow.

OK.  You better not be fucking with me.

I inferred from mongers post that he thought the quoted passage suggested some degree of uncertainty about the identity of the target they hit.  He insinuated that the general's expression of this uncertainty would create political problems for him.  I countered that, seeing as how the normal constituency opposed to assassination missions is the left, that those are the folks who would be upset by this admission.  And additionally, since the central organizing principle of the Trump/Tea Party/Q/Alt right is joy in upsetting the left/progressives, that this would gladden Trump's base and the commander of CentCom's job is in fact not in jeopardy.

What? That's vastly over thinking his point. The general contradicted the crying story, and that's enough for Trump to turn on him.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on November 15, 2019, 10:04:57 PM
News out of Syria seems to have gone quiet; are news reporters finding it increasingly difficult to sell their stories, the outside world just bored of it or is there a lull in the conflict?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Legbiter on November 16, 2019, 04:01:28 PM
Quote from: mongers on November 15, 2019, 10:04:57 PM
News out of Syria seems to have gone quiet; are news reporters finding it increasingly difficult to sell their stories, the outside world just bored of it or is there a lull in the conflict?

No idea. It's like the Kurds have never existed.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Maximus on November 16, 2019, 06:17:36 PM
Kurds? Never heard of them.
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Valmy on November 16, 2019, 06:28:47 PM
Quote from: Maximus on November 16, 2019, 06:17:36 PM
Kurds? Never heard of them.

Is that an Enver Pasha quote?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: mongers on November 20, 2019, 10:19:27 PM
An up to date map of the situation in Syria with a focus on the modest oil and gas fields

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/1571C/production/_109763878_iraq_syria_control_1811_640-3x_v1-nc.png)

From this article here:

Syria conflict: Who benefits from its oil?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/50464561 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/50464561)
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Habbaku on November 20, 2019, 10:34:31 PM
What are the political aspirations of the Oil Fields?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Eddie Teach on November 20, 2019, 10:36:34 PM
What is the dark green supposed to represent?
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 20, 2019, 10:58:29 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 20, 2019, 10:36:34 PM
What is the dark green supposed to represent?

Iraqi central government
Title: Re: Syria Disintegrating: Part 2
Post by: Syt on March 01, 2020, 06:41:46 AM
Turkey has announced that they have started an offensive against Syrian troops in the Idlib area. They stressed that they don't want a military confrontation with Russia.

Syria denies Turkish claims that one of their planes has been downed.